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Originally posted by Opalshine:

2) The turn lost by the aggro player (when their creature, Vial, Ritual-->Hippie, or whatever is countered) closes part of his/her damage-dealing window. With the 1-drop dead, aggro decks had to do more damage in the mid game when control decks were largely established--which didn't work. Resolving some spells too late is tactically equivalent to not resolving them. Not all 1-drops are created equal. The 1-drops in an aggro deck are far more important to that deck winning or losing. So an environment in which all 1-drops are at risk benefits blue decks more because their 1-drops are less valuable.

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This is just a fact of Magic--the very same arguments apply in the other direction. A resolved Vial effectively neuters much of a control (here used synonymously with Aggro-Control) player's strategy (often--but not always--countering important spells) by allowing the Vial player to avoid interacting with that strategy, thereby closing (or at least reducing) the control player's damage prevention window, and shortening the available response time. As you said, "resolving some spells too late is tactically equivalent to not resolving them." Just as not all 1-drops are created equal, neither are all control elements created equal. The advantage that removal has over counterspells is that it comes 'too late' far less frequently, since it can make an immediate difference; counterspells sacrifice this time-related advantage (they have to be in-hand or otherwise accessible) in order to gain breadth of application. Thus, the counterspells in a control or aggro-control deck are far more important to it winning or losing than, say, its creatures are. Thus, in an environment in which all counterspells are at risk of being invalidated (via Vial, Lackey, or whatever else), non-blue decks benefit more because their own control elements are less valuable.

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3) Adding misstep to aggro decks reduces the threat density of those decks, clogging them with a very situational answer-to-an-answer. Blue decks get to use misstep as an direct answer, which is way better than an answer-to-an-answer because direct answers don't get in the way of everything else you're trying to do.

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I disagree here because Misstep, even in an aggro deck, is not necessarily (or even primarily) an answer to Misstep, although it may well function that way on the first turn. It was still a very effective control element versus much of the field--which is to say, it allowed decks to dodge removal or prevent tempo gains--which is pretty much exactly what it did for blue decks too. So I'm not convinced that the direct/indirect distinction is properly applicable here.

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Also, control decks have the card draw and card selection to bypass their situational cards and get the stuff they want. So an environment in which the best answer is situational benefits blue decks more because they have a smaller downside to playing with situational spells.

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Once again, I don't disagree with the point itself, but am not convinced that MM is quite as situational as you make it out to be here (see above).

__________________
"I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each. I do not think they will sing to me." -T.S. Eliot

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Originally posted by JoshSherman:
This makes me not want any part of Modern, honestly.

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What about that coombo deck you posted in the Deck Help Forum. Would it be viable in Modern.

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Originally posted by James_Hetfield2:
GSZ

That was a card I was hoarding (when they were $4-5). Just finished my Russian playset too. Didn't see that coming.

Preordain and Ponder?!

Mental Misstep didn't last long at all haha

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Ponder --> Sleight of Hand
Preordain --> Serum Visions
Rite of Flame --> Desperate Ritual/Pyretic Ritual
Cloudpost --> Urza Lands
Green Sun's Zenith --> More actual creatures

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Originally posted by Jtrade77:
I don't see how it is discouraging. Everything they banned except Blazing Shoal has a direct replacement a little less efficient.

Ponder --> Sleight of Hand
Preordain --> Serum Visions
Rite of Flame --> Desperate Ritual/Pyretic Ritual
Cloudpost --> Urza Lands
Green Sun's Zenith --> More actual creatures

If you really want to keep playing the same decks, you can still do it, just have to rebuild them because they no longer get turn 2 and 3 kills like before. I think that's a good thing.

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Originally posted by Opalshine:
I agree that losing to storm combo, high tide, glimpse of nature elf combo, or painter servant is lame but Misstep had too many unintended consequences. Either Wizards will print more combo hate or we'll have to sideboard more aggressively against that archetype. Going back to the pre-misstep era is great for the overall game.

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Yep, like I said, Zoo has much better chances in a Misstep world that without it.

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Originally posted by Jtrade77:
I don't see how it is discouraging. Everything they banned except Blazing Shoal has a direct replacement a little less efficient.

Ponder --> Sleight of Hand
Preordain --> Serum Visions
Rite of Flame --> Desperate Ritual/Pyretic Ritual
Cloudpost --> Urza Lands
Green Sun's Zenith --> More actual creatures

If you really want to keep playing the same decks, you can still do it, just have to rebuild them because they no longer get turn 2 and 3 kills like before. I think that's a good thing.

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Originally posted by choco man:
Yep, like I said, Zoo has much better chances in a Misstep world that without it.

You can't replace GSZ with more creatures.

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MOTL Fantasy NBA 2010 Champion

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Originally posted by junichi:
I am toying with glittering wish, and it isn't too bad in a slower meta.

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Originally posted by farsk8dutch:
What about that coombo deck you posted in the Deck Help Forum. Would it be viable in Modern.

I know what you mean though, it's a bit discouraging.

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