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Originally posted by ogre:
Think one thing that really really needs to happen is to bring back the pre-releases and I'm not talking store pre-releases. These were, IMO, the definition of the game "Magic The Gathering", and were what made the game fun. It was always cool to go to one of these and see people that you may not have seen for a few months and have a conversation that didn't involve a text message. Once heard that the reason for abandoning these was that organizers were getting the product and selling it before the release date, to that point I'm willing to bet it's at an exponential rate now w/ stores holding the product.

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GPs are now the the equivalent of regional prereleases. It's a much bigger event that feel even more special than the old regional prereleases. And I REALLY liked how GP Portland was over 4 days instead of just 3 days. I didn't go there myself, but the idea seemed great. And from what I heard, the execution was tremendous. I bet we will see more 4-day GPs in the future, based on the location of course.

And the main reason that we are doing store prereleases is because Wizards want to keep their main customers (stores) happy and hopefully profitable. By doing to store prereleases instead of regional ones, Wizards is diverting the profits from regional TOs to stores. Also, by making these EXTREMELY accessible, more people can attend these prereleases. Thus more money for the stores and it also help to keep these players interested in the game longer (or at least it has a non-zero impact to keeping them interested in the game longer).

The only thing I really miss is being able to do draft pods at the pre. I understand the rationale behind dropping them, but I still miss them.

__________________
Wisconsin - smells like dairy air!

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Originally posted by gaeacradle:
And the main reason that we are doing store prereleases is because Wizards want to keep their main customers (stores) happy and hopefully profitable. By doing to store prereleases instead of regional ones, Wizards is diverting the profits from regional TOs to stores. Also, by making these EXTREMELY accessible, more people can attend these prereleases. Thus more money for the stores and it also help to keep these players interested in the game longer (or at least it has a non-zero impact to keeping them interested in the game longer).

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I can see the point of keeping the stores happy, but going to the pre-release where you may have to drive a bit to get to a crowd of a few hundred people was part of the experience. It's Magic the Gathering not Magic play w/ only your local players that you see once a week. Going w/ a car load of people and meeting people in the surrounding area, making friends and potentially learning about another store that may be worth the occasional travel to was and is essential to the game. It's not like the store isn't going to make money, if memory serves me right they still have release events for the stores a couple weeks after the store pre-release, that seems a bit redundant.

As far as GP's go, unless you're a judge, have a large enough pocket, or live remotely close to the GP then you're probably not gonna go. Don't get me wrong I love going to GP's, but they aren't accessible for all players, and going to a large event, IMO, was always the big thing when I first started playing.

In a nutshell, not having a large regional pre-release destroyed a big part of the game which was getting out to meet people and face new situations. I think it's fair to say that a good bit of Magic players live a taciturn and stolid lifestyle, and the regional event where you go out and see a bunch of new faces would get them out of there comfort zone which may help them prepare for other events that will happen in there life. Going to the local store and seeing the same faces over and over again is repetitious, it doesn't help a person grow.

.10,
Jesse

The regional releases were fun and I always enjoyed traveling for them when I lived in Central Illinois. We would load up the car and head for Chicago or St. Louis and pack the day with playing cards. I'm sure that model would still be profitable for big TOs.

However, as an adult now with more responsibilities that make traveling for magic too difficult, I vastly prefer the option of having a more local experience. It makes the prerelease more accessible to players who may not be willing to drive 2-3+ hours to a regional event.

__________________
Wisconsin - smells like dairy air!

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Originally posted by iccarus:
I get where you're coming from ogre, but the store-level releases (at least here, in a mid-sized Midwestern city) still draw a relatively large number of casual players out of the woodwork. Out of three major game stores in town, two sold out of their event kits this past weekend and I think the third came close. That would not happen with just their regular weekly crowds showing up.

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Originally posted by oldschool:
The people are buy these cards at this point are no longer poor kids that need the cash. They're likely those that have no need to ever sell. So once the transfer from weak hands to strong hands is complete then the situation because much worse for new collectors.

Those that purchased an Alpha Lotus at 10k have no reason to sell at 12k or 15k or maybe even 20k.
(...)
There is no shortage of rich people that play magic and continue to pick up the game. There are 1100 of each alpha rare. I am willing to bet there are far more than 1100 millionaires that play magic.

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Altogether true, except the 1100 millionaires point - just as the "there are kids in dorms playing MtG right now that will be future 6-figure salaries" point - merits a caveat. For that to be true, Magic - physical Magic - has to remain popular.

Today's richest Magic players were probably the kids playing in the dorms in the 90's. They grew up looking over Inquest prices. A Lotus, or a Mox, *meant* something to them - people still played "Type 1".

But ask yourselves this question: imagine you were granted any Magic card of your desire, with the stipulation that in getting that card you forfeit the possibility of ever selling or trading it, or another copy of it. Which card would you ask for?

For some of you, who were the kids in the dorm in the 90's, maybe the Alpha Lotus you've always coveted.

But for today's kids / tomorrow's rich players, why would they go for the Lotus? In their circles, amongst their friends, it bears no special status. "Vintage" is something to do with wine, not Magic. They'd sooner get that Russian Foil Jace for bragging rights.

Effectively, there are fewer foil Russian Jaces than Alpha Loti I'd venture, and you "need" 4 Jace vs. 1 Lotus. Alpha Lotus took 20 years to surpass the 3K mark, whereas Russian foil Jace took what, 2 years?

But it still puzzles me... there should be a larger influx of kids-growing-into-rich-players today than 10 or 15 years ago, right? The game is all the more popular. So how come LOTUS has spiked, whilst foil Russian Jace remains, AFAIK, in the same 3K to 5K ballpark?

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Originally posted by slurpee:
The reserved will go away at some point. Argue all you want but it will, not today, not tomorrow, not this year, but it will at some point. Most likely when MTG is on the decline or hasbro is sold to another company.
(...)
Lastly at some point card/comic stores will start to disappear. The cost of doing business goes up all the time. If cards and comics don't pay the bills they will close. Many of these shops are run by people who want to enjoy their job or never have to grow up. Not trying to be mean, but many of the shop owners struggle to pay their bills as they just want to play cards, read comics or talk to people all day. I would like to do that to, but I hear all the time about how far behind they are on some bill. When shops start to close the game will start to shrink. When the game shrinks the prices will go down. It won't matter if these shops carried power or vintage cards, if people feel the sky if falling prices will fall on everything.
(...)
Again I am not saying that magic is at it's end, but it will come. Heck I used to love going to GPs, releases, prereleases, not anymore...Everyone has a 600 dollar phone that people look up the value of the cards. Not saying that I tried to rip people, but these days it is like I have a 50 dollar card and they want to give me 10 5 dollar cards. If one side is in favor by more then a buck it is like the world is ending and no deal is struck.

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I agree with Michael's points except the reserved list reprinting. If Hasbro/WotC needs to pad the bottom line they can just print an uberpowerful Urza Planeswalker, or Jace 5.0, or Magus of the Lotus a 1/1 for G that you can sac for 3 mana. They do NOT need, ever, to reprint cards that, for all their iconic status, were Bad Design for the game. And this includes the duals, as duals + fetches pretty much makes all other mana bases mostly irrelevant.

Michael's points about the hard struggle for shops and the state of trading nowadays merit special attention. Physical CCGs struggle with their online counterparts in today's world, everyday, more and more. You don't need to go anywhere, allocate a night off with friends, etc. to play online. You don't even run the risk of your cards being stolen. You get to play worldwide, at any time of day or night, any format. You can watch, and broadcast, games on Twitch.tv

Magic itself hedges their physical game with MTGO.

The *only* thing physical CCGs have going for them right now is collectability. I think it's no accident that pimping seems to be at record heights. But you don't need a store to collect, you just need the Internet.

And yes, up to a few years ago trading was a game in itself. There were regional variations of value, things cheaper in Europe, things cheaper in the USA. People would trade for a card they needed, not for a card worth the exact same as their cards.

Nowadays, with MCM, prices are mostly the same worldwide. Everyone wants to give not a cent more than 10 x 5$ cards for a 50$ card. The limit of this - and it's not far off - is that you need to spend 50$ to get a 50$ card, whether you buy it as a single or trade for it. At that time, buying booster boxes becomes mostly irrelevant unless you plan to bulk them out to an online store.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
I consider what the dealers told me to be valid and that they couldn't budge because then they would make no profit. But a great dealer told me once that you can't eat cardboard and in the end they have to sell to someone. Their investments are hedged by the influx of Standard/Modern sales keeping them afloat. But ultimately, who is that end customer?

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Hopefully, no-one.

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Originally posted by Sovarius:
You can very easily check for fake dollar bills, but people don't typically waste their time on 20's.

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There's two schools of counterfeiting. You can either do a lesser quality counterfeit of a lower value item and attempt to pass it off "quickly" as the real thing, or you can do this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bernhard

"Handfulls" of NM lotuses, ya I've seen them. In 1995 when I first started really playing the game, I knew a local collector in PA who had 11 NM Lotus, and 70+ NM moxes from various sets. He played his Gauntlet of Might/Kobald deck in penny sleeves. He was 50 when MTG came out and he knew the value of magic as a collectable. Heck the print run for magics' first sets was spoiled that year. People knew how rare they were too.

I feel that a lot of us are remembering MTG from a childs' eyes. Ya I played my cards unsleeved, but many many people did not. You are not taking into account why MTG even became popular to begin with. It was/is popular strictly because it is collectable. But to my original point, at what point does it no longer become collectable? Is owning one of 100 NM Alpha Lotuses worth the 20k price tag on them right now? Again, 20k this year, 6k last year - Same card. And who is buying them? Collectors or investors (dealers)? An Alpha 9+ set is 200k or so at the moment. In 20 years will it be more or less? Call me a loon if you want, but I think less; especially if you adjust for inflation. And to my most important point, do you guys think that a played alpha Usea is worth 3k? I think that profits from standard sales and bonuses that dealers get from Wizards is allowing them to buy up vintage cards in the hopes that they will go up and up. But it seems like everyone is a dealer now, and that is what makes prices fluctuate so badly.

As far as counterfit cards go, duplicating a 1952 Honus Wagner is not in the same ballpark of a black lotus. For the same reason I mentioned earlier: character. Pack Fresh Lotuses are common. Pack Fresh Honus Wagner? Not so much. It is those details that forensic scientists use to authenticate antiques and true collectables. Magic cards are closer to beanie babies in this respect.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
According to BGS and PSA over 110 Alpha Black Lotuses have received a grade higher than 8.0 NM-MT condition. That is to say that at least 10% of the print run of Alpha Black Lotus was pulled from a pack, not played as you guys say, and graded.

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First of all, most collectors consider anything with an overall rating of 8 to be SLIGHTLY PLAYED. Most somewhat-serious collectors only want an overall BGS 8.5 (with no 8 subgrades) or PSA 9 or above. The serious collectors wants BGS 9 or PSA 9/10. And the super serious collectors want BSG 9.5/10 or PSA 10.

Second of all, there have been many instances of re-grading on both BGS and PSA. Especially for something like an Alpha Lotus, where half a grade difference can change the value significantly.

If you don't know those 2 facts, then I don't think you know what a collector is. Or understand how rare a highly graded (9 and above) card is.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
I think many of you guys read too many "how to invest" type mtg articles. But who will be on top when the bottom falls out remains to be seen.

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Finally, 99% of those articles don't even touch the subject of Alpha/Beta high-ends because their intended audiences don't have that kind of purchasing power. Not to mention that as a serious, smart investor/collector, you do your own research and not listen to some random people spouting off theories about why cards go up or down. Especially when those people don't deal in or even have any of those cards to begin with.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
According to BGS and PSA over 110 Alpha Black Lotuses have received a grade higher than 8.0 NM-MT condition. That is to say that at least 10% of the print run of Alpha Black Lotus was pulled from a pack, not played as you guys say, and graded.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
"Handfulls" of NM lotuses, ya I've seen them. In 1995 when I first started really playing the game, I knew a local collector in PA who had 11 NM Lotus, and 70+ NM moxes from various sets. He played his Gauntlet of Might/Kobald deck in penny sleeves. He was 50 when MTG came out and he knew the value of magic as a collectable. Heck the print run for magics' first sets was spoiled that year. People knew how rare they were too.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
I feel that a lot of us are remembering MTG from a childs' eyes. Ya I played my cards unsleeved, but many many people did not. You are not taking into account why MTG even became popular to begin with. It was/is popular strictly because it is collectable.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
But to my original point, at what point does it no longer become collectable? Is owning one of 100 NM Alpha Lotuses worth the 20k price tag on them right now? Again, 20k this year, 6k last year - Same card.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
And who is buying them? Collectors or investors (dealers)?

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
An Alpha 9+ set is 200k or so at the moment. In 20 years will it be more or less? Call me a loon if you want, but I think less; especially if you adjust for inflation.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
And to my most important point, do you guys think that a played alpha Usea is worth 3k?

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
I think that profits from standard sales and bonuses that dealers get from Wizards is allowing them to buy up vintage cards in the hopes that they will go up and up. But it seems like everyone is a dealer now, and that is what makes prices fluctuate so badly.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
As far as counterfit cards go, duplicating a 1952 Honus Wagner is not in the same ballpark of a black lotus.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
For the same reason I mentioned earlier: character. Pack Fresh Lotuses are common.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
Pack Fresh Honus Wagner? Not so much.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
It is those details that forensic scientists use to authenticate antiques and true collectables.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
Magic cards are closer to beanie babies in this respect.

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
I think many of you guys read too many "how to invest" type mtg articles. But who will be on top when the bottom falls out remains to be seen.

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I don't read any of those, partially because I don't need to, partially because most of those authors are half-baked, and partially because I'm not investing in these cards in the sense that I'm looking for a return. If you think card prices are unsustainable, sell what you've got then. Just like when Lotus was $800 ten years ago, people panicked because it couldn't possibly hold that price. I suppose they were technically right...

As far as population reports: I understand the possibility of re-grades. That point was more directed at the idea that people had no idea that cards were collectable back in '93. Which the numbers indicate that they did. In fact, I rounded the number down a few to 110 just to account for that possibility and included NM type cards, again making the point about collectors in 93/94.

You all are right about this not being the first time that people have wondered where they will top out at. But that doesn't change the idea that magic cards have tripled in value in one year. That sounds like investors not collectors. I mean there is a youtube video of a guy who is "collecting" a nm beta set. He has 3 extra 8.5+ black lotus. He had to borrow money to buy them. Sounds more like a dealer than a collector to me.

As far as me selling my collection. I get closer and closer each day. I enjoy magic but like most people who understand what money can do, it is one thing to have a hobby that costs 25k that my whole family can enjoy like traveling the world. It is yet another to invest that money along with what I already do in what is a totally bullish stock market (people claim that can't end too). Yet it is just plain odd to own 25k worth of magic cards that mostly collect dust. Even though I can 100% afford to never sell them, I just think about their value to me and that is what makes me wonder who, really is buying them?

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Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
Stuff

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I was going to write a nice response but then I realize that it is a waste of time. You obviously aren't paying to my and other people's points of view. But I just want to say that if you do talk to the actual dealers and befriend them, you will know that these high-end cards move fairly quickly for them. Otherwise, they won't be buying them as they can make more money on Constructed staples.

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Originally posted by gaeacradle:
I was going to write a nice response but then I realize that it is a waste of time. You obviously aren't paying to my and other people's points of view. But I just want to say that if you do talk to the actual dealers and befriend them, you will know that these high-end cards move fairly quickly for them. Otherwise, they won't be buying them as they can make more money on Constructed staples.

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Don't take it too seriously. I am only playing devil's advocate here. But selling constructed staples gives dealers capital to buy vintage cards. ABU games has 1% or better of the entire print run of alpha rares. That is one shop. And I do know many of the dealers on the West Coast. They always have "outs" that are other dealers (albeit smaller scale). That is what started this whole conversation actually.

Few came here to say that they simply collect cards. Many jumped on the idea that they will be worth more so it is a good investment and hence, they buy.

I am okay with that assessment overall. In fact, I plan to go ahead and post my want list here on MOTL.

So, if it didn't really seem like it, I do understand many of the points you guys make. Graded cards just will never make sense to me, as I would rather have original artwork or something...

And I don't have anything against most dealers. In fact, I respect what they do for our community. All I needed was a long thread like this to hash it out. Having to attempt to rebut what otherwise are legitimate points, just increases my knowledge of the "high end" magic scene.

My wife has handbags more expensive than a beta lotus on SCG right now.....

I too was amazed at the price tag on Alpha Loti right now, but have no problem believing that unless the game collapses / loses interest altogether (and perhaps even then), the NM/higher graded ones will keep going up.

But the more beat copies? Seriously?

What's the point of spending 3K - 6K on a card that's beat to ****?

To use KIP_NZ's wife's handbags as an example, let's imagine he's looking to offer her a 10K$ gift.

If he says "Look, I've bought you that 10K$ handbag you wanted, brand new", I'm sure she's happy.

But if he says "Look, I've bought you that 20K$ handbag you wanted. It's beat to **** and smells of dog urine, but hey, I still got one"... somehow I don't think so.

Back in 2008 I traded a beat Alpha Underground Sea for 200$ in cards (*sigh*). It was *really* beat, to the point that it looked too damaged (IMHO), even sleeved. The other guy's point (and a perfectly valid one, I'm not complaining here) was that it was still an Alpha Sea, and would look great when I fetched it with my Delta. But truth be told, the first chance I had to upgrade it, I traded it away and got a better one.

Now, I got that Sea because I was able to *trade* for it. I wouldn't have bought it then (well, I would if I'd had a crystal ball), and that was only 200$.

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Originally posted by yoriagami:
But who's buying beat to **** Seas for 2K, or in other words, why are those still 2K?

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They are 2K because people are buying them. I imagine the price difference is low (2x in your example) because of scarcity, and tournaments/prize support.

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Originally posted by Pail42:

For tournament players that need an underground sea it doesn't matter what the condition is as long as it is playable.

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