Author
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Topic: Odds for pulling good cards?
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humbleacolyte Member
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posted August 13, 2013 09:08 AM
I understand this is highly speculative, super random, and trying to guess at a pattern really won't work....regardlessAll of us want the best pulls in packs and booster boxes, and cards put into those packs and boxes is totally random, what is your opinion on buying a set of booster boxes? Do you think you would have a higher chance to pull 'more good rares' if you were to buy a case (6 booster boxes) which were likely to be boxed and packed all from the same group of cards coming off the line, or would you be better off buying 6 individual boxes were were likely boxed and packed at different intervals coming off the line? My thought is that if Wizards of the Coast distributes cards randomly but does its best to 'spread the wealth'...you might not get a box of 6 all together that all have really good cards in them , maybe 1 or 2. Where as, if you buy 6 from different vendors or locations, your odds change because those boxes weren't all coming off the line at the same time.
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Sovarius Member
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posted August 13, 2013 09:14 AM
Have you heard of mapping.__________________ Want Drana, Kalastria Bloodchief, and other vampire females oddities (foreign foil crimp miscut misprint sign testprint alters etc)My Saleslist Wants
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humbleacolyte Member
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posted August 13, 2013 09:28 AM
I have not
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thror Member
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posted August 13, 2013 10:07 AM
you make numerous claims that are actually untrue.boxes are NOT packed randomly. wotc does very little to 'spread the wealth', because they almost always overlook a few rares that become money cards. box mapping is a thing, and it lets you KNOW the pattern in which cards are packed into boxes. __________________ "He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."<@Anusien> Pretty sure New Zealanders are the sheep shaggers <KIP_NZ> Anusien: I'm a kiwi and I've shagged a sheep <KIP_NZ> we kiwi's like our sheep
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scipio624 Member
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posted August 13, 2013 10:37 AM
Not all games stores, online stores or individuals selling packs map their boxes but as a rule I will never buy packs from a box unless I see it cracked open.
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AGO Member
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posted August 13, 2013 10:54 AM
A machine does all the work. This machine doesn't care how is distributes the cards info the boxes. I does it in such a way that it is predictable. Don't buy sealed product thinking your going to get good pulls.
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Heresy19 Member
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posted August 13, 2013 07:26 PM
Mapping is the easiest way to get all the goods, you just need to be patient and able to keep track like a boss :P
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Dancam1 Member
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posted August 16, 2013 04:18 PM
2 things1. For those who talk about box mapping, can u give a link? 2. Personally, when I was buying cases, I preferred to buy sealed cases instead of 6 boxes. I found that you'd generally get between 3 and 4 of each mythic and a playset of each rare. When I got 6 random boxes, you might pull 6 good ones or 6 bad ones. My finding is that 2 boxes are very good, 3 boxes are okay, and 1 box is bad, if you pull that box, you generally get crap. I did this (buying cases) for years, until my health declined, and made money. I started with a 500.00 loan and was up to over 10K bankroll to buy them when it was all said and done...
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jbark Member
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posted August 16, 2013 04:33 PM
youtube? some 14 year old kid will show you how to map. 14 year old kids are the wizards of the interweb.
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Dancam1 Member
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posted August 16, 2013 04:42 PM
quote: Originally posted by jbark: youtube? some 14 year old kid will show you how to map. 14 year old kids are the wizards of the interweb.
Fair enough, what do I type in magic box mapping?
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humbleacolyte Member
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posted August 16, 2013 05:01 PM
quote: Originally posted by Dancam1: Fair enough, what do I type in magic box mapping?
yes, not only do they show you how it works (minus the mathematical equations behind it), they also sell apps to allow you to do it as well. Box mapping works great to get the best stuff out of a box, but it does require you to open the box to find out what pattern the cards are in. I don't know if there is anything for 'case' mapping yet, but for my own purposes, I want to do like Dancam mentioned above. Buy a case, open a few boxes for myself, and keep the other sealed boxes in a safe for 10-15 years and hope that MTG keeps its popularity as it has been for the last 20 years. While I don't want to 'rip' anyone off, I do want to get the best cards that I can out of the boxes I open....and sell (what I hope) the boxes that didn't have great pulls. Its pretty much random chance I know, just wanted to know if there was a better pattern to it than buying a case. Box mapping would be the ultimate way to do that, open the rares that I want and hold the rest of the packs and sell them individually....but I couldn't live with myself if I did that, its like selling a lottery ticket to someone that you know won't pay off. They might not know the difference, but I would....and that is all that matters to me. At least with the unknown factor of boxes (or selling individual packs without mapping), I can feel good knowing that whoever buys it still has the same chance to get something decent.
[Edited 1 times, lastly by humbleacolyte on August 16, 2013]
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Dancam1 Member
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posted August 16, 2013 05:23 PM
quote: Originally posted by humbleacolyte: yes, not only do they show you how it works (minus the mathematical equations behind it), they also sell apps to allow you to do it as well. Box mapping works great to get the best stuff out of a box, but it does require you to open the box to find out what pattern the cards are in. I don't know if there is anything for 'case' mapping yet, but for my own purposes, I want to do like Dancam mentioned above. Buy a case, open a few boxes for myself, and keep the other sealed boxes in a safe for 10-15 years and hope that MTG keeps its popularity as it has been for the last 20 years. While I don't want to 'rip' anyone off, I do want to get the best cards that I can out of the boxes I open....and sell (what I hope) the boxes that didn't have great pulls. Its pretty much random chance I know, just wanted to know if there was a better pattern to it than buying a case. Box mapping would be the ultimate way to do that, open the rares that I want and hold the rest of the packs and sell them individually....but I couldn't live with myself if I did that, its like selling a lottery ticket to someone that you know won't pay off. They might not know the difference, but I would....and that is all that matters to me. At least with the unknown factor of boxes (or selling individual packs without mapping), I can feel good knowing that whoever buys it still has the same chance to get something decent.
I wish I had known about that a year or so ago. I brought a box of worldwake for 150.00 and didn't get the Jace. I will prob get my cash back, but, did get a lot of good cards. If you are gonna hold onto the boxes for years, that is fine, look at how the new sets have increased, but, you do make one assumption, that in 10 years, people will still care about magic. I'd watch to see if the market starts to fall. I know that magic has held strong for 20 years, but, they aren't comic books or sports cards. And as far as I know, all other ccg games have NEVER held their price for more then a few years, not Star Trek, Star Wars, Yugioh, Pokemon, nada. I have also heard that turnouts for PTQ and similar things are "down" when compared to previous years. I know when I used to go, you didn't get less then 200 people.
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