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Topic: Prices wrong in MOTL Pricelist / Archives?
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digitek New Member
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posted August 06, 2009 11:17 AM
Again, my replies to this thread were to coolio before you jumped in. Coolio was the first one who used the term nil, if you re-read the thread. I believe I used logical arguments to show that a single data point still has value when combined with historical data such as previous store prices or previous price guides.Thanks for the quick replies, Regards.
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coasterdude84 Member
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posted August 06, 2009 01:05 PM
No. Consider the $1000 Bog Imp from 9th edition. Let's pretend 4 years ago when it came out the price was say $0.10, and now it's $1000, indicating for reasons unknown the value has increased significantly. However, if your system is trying to determine price by trends, then it is better to have no data and force the computer to use the old $0.10 price than have it curve fit that 1 data point. While 9th edition Bog Imps are extremely rare and easily worth $80-100, $1000 is a bit much.You'd be better off having your system ignore any with a raw N value <5 and apply a default price of $0.10. If there aren't any listings for it ending on ebay, then it's obviously not worth listing there and probably only worth a dime or so. Then, manually go in and override the dozen or so cards that are actually worth a little more. If you still want to look at trend data, try this. I don't usually trust their prices, but they do give a good indication of what a card is doing.
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digitek New Member
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posted August 06, 2009 04:32 PM
Yes, all good points!Lets consider that example again. Bog for $1000.00. Now if I take a look at historical data and it shows that the price has remained at $1000 in previous weeks / months / years, I'm inclined to trust that $1000.00 a bit more. But with a historical value of .10, well as you state, it should be disregarded. The point there is that it is the historical data that gave us clarity in how to handle the low-sales cases. With magic, it may be that all 16,000 cards are traded so often that, if for whatever reason one wasn't sold in a certain time, it should be considered worth only a dime. I would have to look at historical prices to see if that was the case - but you may have a good strategy if the volume of every magic card except .10 cards has a high N. Thanks the link, very handy. There's been a few great sites that have come out of this thread as pointed out by users. Regards.
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coolio Member
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posted August 06, 2009 09:47 PM
quote: Originally posted by digitek: Yes, all good points!Lets consider that example again. Bog for $1000.00. Now if I take a look at historical data and it shows that the price has remained at $1000 in previous weeks / months / years, I'm inclined to trust that $1000.00 a bit more. But with a historical value of .10, well as you state, it should be disregarded. The point there is that it is the historical data that gave us clarity in how to handle the low-sales cases. With magic, it may be that all 16,000 cards are traded so often that, if for whatever reason one wasn't sold in a certain time, it should be considered worth only a dime. I would have to look at historical prices to see if that was the case - but you may have a good strategy if the volume of every magic card except .10 cards has a high N. Thanks the link, very handy. There's been a few great sites that have come out of this thread as pointed out by users. Regards.
this is so laughable it's funny.. it'll cost me.. what? a dollar (Store listing) to have a bog imp posted with a tag of $1000 for a yr or so.. just so skew with data scrapers? might be worth the effort. as for the link.. dont make me laugh.. there's a lovely lil trend with findmagiccards website.. as it's based offa each site's buy list.. if you dont know what it is, i'm not saying.. but the reliability of it is laughable. edit: some here will say i'm an insufferable know it all, but when it comes down to it, few here know as much relative background in relation to how that list works than i do. __________________ Since it is obviously inconceivable that all religions can be right, the most reasonable conclusion is that they are all wrong. -Christopher HitchensReligion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful. -Seneca the Younger
[Edited 1 times, lastly by coolio on August 06, 2009]
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digitek New Member
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posted August 06, 2009 09:58 PM
Heh... that would be an interesting technique to mess with store prices. Would be even better if you got a purchase out of it. =)Regards.
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BoltBait Moderator
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posted August 08, 2009 06:12 PM
Have you looked at the weekly price guide?http://classic.magictraders.com/pricelists/current-magic-weekly It often has more up-to-date prices than the full list. It solves the problem of stale prices in the full list. __________________ Everyone you meet is going through something * BoltBait is the official holder of the MOTL Logout Button [Trades] [Rules] [FAQ] [Prices] [Card Searches] [Tools] [WotC] [Dominoes] [Art] [#MOTL Chat] [Logout]
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Planeswlk New Member
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posted August 26, 2009 12:11 AM
Wow, gr8 discussion. I agree the N of 1 cards cant be trusted, but at the least they establish a baseline for the time when they were sold, as opposed to no data at all.I just downloaded the pricelist, and noticed something disturbing from the list a month ago.. the filesize went way down (used to be around 1100kb, now 680kb), only around 8000 prices listed now. From a cursory look, it appears someone did change the script programming, and all the stale Raw-N 1 cards were dropped. The previous behavior was those cards with 0 activity were left untouched and rolled their price over to the next list. Now all that better-than-nothing historical rollover data is gone from new pricelists, leaving a huge void of nonpriced cards. There are still N=1 cards, but only from current sales. On one hand, this is a good move, eliminating unreliable data in favor of reliable current activity. On the other hand, if a card has occasional sales, it may appear for a few days and then vanish off the list, losing the recent fact of activity and possible pricing for someone interested. The prices of the infrequent and few-sales cards are lost. The Pricelists have gone from their namesake to a Whats Hot list, only listing what few cards are in demand on the market. I can no longer use the price data for MWS with so many prices missing. Again, some data, albeit "last known" and unknown when the last activity was, is extremely better than nothing. I may need prices for 6 year old commons (for example), which will never be sold on ebay in singular; their last known price was great (if accurate - not 9.99 or something silly). Now I can only stare at a null entry and wonder what the price was. I'd like to know what the new inactivity cutoff time period is. I might assume the basic lists, being monthly, will have a month cutoff for activity before a card is dropped; the weekly lists are weekly. (I suppose if I want the full pricelist like it used to be I will have to figure out a way to merge/synch new lists with an old list, preferably ironing out the obvious out-of-range prices from historical saved lists first. Unless, of course, MOTL brings back the old full list as a special download, updated once a month or so..)
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digitek New Member
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posted August 28, 2009 03:11 PM
Based on previous replies, it's likely MOTL will recommend doing this analysis separately. It doesn't seem MOTL is in the business of reporting heuristic based price data, or data with so few sales. Yes, the list is down to 8000 cards, but at approx 50% of the entire card base, that should cover the majority of cards that are worth something (about 2/3 of cards are common and uncommon).Your existing script enhanced to take a price base, and then override just those entries in the updated list would be a great start. Some "N" heuristics to discard entries here and there may still be necessary, but let me know if you need a beta tester. For those new to retrieving the price lists and don't have a base, this is one of the reasons I requested access to previous data. Other sites have historical data graphs going back to October 2008 (like Black Lotus Project), but MOTL has been doing this a lot longer. They may not be archiving the results or have the spare bandwidth to share them all. Regards
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Planeswlk New Member
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posted August 28, 2009 10:49 PM
Hmm, problem is the MWS import clears out/starts fresh the resultant price base you fill with the imported text data. So I would have to export data from old pricebase to text, merge that with the new text, then use the final mix to import to MWS.At the least, I would still need to id and fix all the bogus old rolled-over prices that used to be in the pricelists. PITA..
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digitek New Member
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posted August 29, 2009 02:59 AM
Yup, that sounds about right. =/
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Leshrac Founder
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posted August 29, 2009 05:57 AM
quote: Originally posted by Planeswlk: I just downloaded the pricelist, and noticed something disturbing from the list a month ago.. the filesize went way down (used to be around 1100kb, now 680kb), only around 8000 prices listed now. From a cursory look, it appears someone did change the script programming, and all the stale Raw-N 1 cards were dropped. The previous behavior was those cards with 0 activity were left untouched and rolled their price over to the next list. Now all that better-than-nothing historical rollover data is gone from new pricelists, leaving a huge void of nonpriced cards. There are still N=1 cards, but only from current sales.
Actually, this is a more an artifact of the server move than anything else. There was no behavior change, but some data was lost in the primary list. However, flushing out the really old prices every once in a while is something that gets done every once in a while anyway. At some point having an old price with Raw-N=1 becomes worse than having no price at all because it says nothing about the current value of a card and could be misleading. The list will steadily grow again as time passes.__________________ Leshrac leshrac@magictraders.com Founder, Owner - Magic Online Trading League (MOTL) "Working hard, so you don't have to..."
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digitek New Member
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posted August 29, 2009 02:11 PM
Makes sense, thanks Leshrac. Any thoughts on a one-time dumb of the price data if MOTL still has the old values archived? Would be happy to chip in a few bucks to make that possible...
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Planeswlk New Member
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posted August 29, 2009 08:17 PM
Oh wow, ok! Thats cool! Thank you for the clarification, Leshrac.I'll give the lists a few weeks to regenerate datapoints and let folks know on MWS that the super-stale prices were purged one time only.
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caquaa Member
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posted August 29, 2009 09:07 PM
quote: Originally posted by Leshrac: However, flushing out the really old prices every once in a while is something that gets done every once in a while anyway. At some point having an old price with Raw-N=1 becomes worse than having no price at all because it says nothing about the current value of a card and could be misleading.
quote: Originally posted by Planeswlk:
the super-stale prices were purged one time only.
huh? __________________
-Caquaa caquaa@yahoo.comBuying MM counterspells for my counterspell collection. Click me! If at first you don’t succeed, failure may be your style.
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