1. It's mainly StarCity pushing Legacy, so they are in control of the Legacy market. It's obvious that they had an enormous stock of Legacy-legal cards at the inception of their 5k series. Now that it's in full-swing, they are out of stuff and paying outrageous prices to restock. This appears good to us now, but what if Starcity makes their 2012 5k Series Extended? I'm not saying they will, but they have the power to do so. When one party has so much control, it should give us all some pause. There is sound business behind it-- if 2012 is not Legacy, prices will drop precipitously, and they can restock for their 2013 season. Imagine how much value your collection would lose if 2012 wasn't a Legacy year.

2. Total tournament saturation of weekends. Have you seen MtgMom.com lately? Some weekends this summer have three or four major tournaments overlapping. I am Northeast-centric, but for instance, the weekend of PT Nagoya also has the big Vestal NY Legacy event, a TCG 5k in Philly, and a Starcity 5k, albeit in Denver. Many high-level players will have to choose which to attend. It seems like there's no more space for tournaments. Is Legacy at the all-time high for popularity or will subsequent Starcity Sundays bring 400+, 500+ people for the event? Will it continue to grow?

3. The cost. I never thought I'd see Badlands on a buylist for $40. I have a good job and a good collection, so this doesn't hurt me so much, but what about those people on the fence who want to build decks? Are people who play Magic just getting more established in life and cost is no longer an object? Or maybe we'll start seeing more of a division between "powered" and "unpowered" Legacy decks as prices climb higher. Underground Seas are $100+. And this is just stupid: http://blacklotusproject.com/cards/Antiquities/Candelabra+of+Tawnos/ I bet we'll see many more cards go from $30-50 to $150+ as the year progresses. Tabernacle, Grim Tutor, Moat, Candelabra, Recruiter, etc., etc., etc.

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Originally posted by wjuseck:
I've been happy to see the rise of Legacy, mainly due to the StarCity series of course, but I am a bit worried about the spiraling Legacy prices. Do you think the bubble is going to burst at some point? All bubbles do. Here are some factors I've been thinking about:

1. It's mainly StarCity pushing Legacy, so they are in control of the Legacy market. It's obvious that they had an enormous stock of Legacy-legal cards at the inception of their 5k series. Now that it's in full-swing, they are out of stuff and paying outrageous prices to restock. This appears good to us now, but what if Starcity makes their 2012 5k Series Extended? I'm not saying they will, but they have the power to do so. When one party has so much control, it should give us all some pause. There is sound business behind it-- if 2012 is not Legacy, prices will drop precipitously, and they can restock for their 2013 season. Imagine how much value your collection would lose if 2012 wasn't a Legacy year.

2. Total tournament saturation of weekends. Have you seen MtgMom.com lately? Some weekends this summer have three or four major tournaments overlapping. I am Northeast-centric, but for instance, the weekend of PT Nagoya also has the big Vestal NY Legacy event, a TCG 5k in Philly, and a Starcity 5k, albeit in Denver. Many high-level players will have to choose which to attend. It seems like there's no more space for tournaments. Is Legacy at the all-time high for popularity or will subsequent Starcity Sundays bring 400+, 500+ people for the event? Will it continue to grow?

3. The cost. I never thought I'd see Badlands on a buylist for $40. I have a good job and a good collection, so this doesn't hurt me so much, but what about those people on the fence who want to build decks? Are people who play Magic just getting more established in life and cost is no longer an object? Or maybe we'll start seeing more of a division between "powered" and "unpowered" Legacy decks as prices climb higher. Underground Seas are $100+. And this is just stupid: http://blacklotusproject.com/cards/Antiquities/Candelabra+of+Tawnos/ I bet we'll see many more cards go from $30-50 to $150+ as the year progresses. Tabernacle, Grim Tutor, Moat, Candelabra, Recruiter, etc., etc., etc.

Can Legacy keep expanding with all these outside forces? When will the decline begin, if ever? Just something I've been thinking about as Starcity becomes more Borg-like. Don't get me wrong, I like Starcity a lot. They're just very good at what they do. It seems like they're consolidating their power by outpricing other retailers. Their buylist prices are higher than many closed eBay auctions. Will they eventually "hold all the cards?"

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1) If they stop supporting Legacy, then they lose the "control of the Legacy market" and all their "consolidating" of power is wasted. I'm sure some other large dealer will gladly take over a 5k series that has pushed SCG to the top of the magic dealers.

2) Too many good tournaments is probably a good thing. Living in the Northeast is great because of so many magic events up there. However, down in Texas, we look forward to a good event anywhere even close to us.

2. At some point you're going to hit a point where attendance will peak and begin to decline. The same thing happened with the SCG P9 events, which declined as the cost to enter the format grew too high, even with proxies.

3. As soon as a card shows promise, the speculators swoop in. There's nothing really new here.

I believe part of the appeal of legacy right now is just that the format is so wide open. There's no deck dominating the metagame and there are numerous viable decks that can be built.

If attendance drops too much, SCG will just unsanction its events and starts allowing a limited number of proxies. They made that push with Vintage to keep those events going.

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Originally posted by Teferi Planeswalker:
[B]Too many good tournaments is probably a good thing. Living in the Northeast is great because of so many magic events up there. However, down in Texas, we look forward to a good event anywhere even close to us.B]

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Originally posted by gaeacradle:
Sadly, the state is too big so you don't get as many attending $5K and such.

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Originally posted by gaeacradle:
Sadly, the state is too big so you don't get as many attending $5K and such. I remmeber there were less than 100 players in the Sealed $5K of the Austin TCG event.

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To be fair, the advertising for that event was very small when compared to the word of mouth that gets out for SCG tournaments.

In response to the OP, I'm confident that legacy events still have room to grow, in Texas at least, if they were held on Saturdays instead of Sundays like at the 5k.

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Originally posted by wjuseck:
1. It's mainly StarCity pushing Legacy, so they are in control of the Legacy market. It's obvious that they had an enormous stock of Legacy-legal cards at the inception of their 5k series. Now that it's in full-swing, they are out of stuff and paying outrageous prices to restock. This appears good to us now, but what if Starcity makes their 2012 5k Series Extended? I'm not saying they will, but they have the power to do so. When one party has so much control, it should give us all some pause. There is sound business behind it-- if 2012 is not Legacy, prices will drop precipitously, and they can restock for their 2013 season. Imagine how much value your collection would lose if 2012 wasn't a Legacy year.

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I'm still waiting for all the Vintage cards to drop now that they aren't supporting it. Why is is that Moxes aren't dropping? How come Mishra's Workshop isn't 35 again or Bazaar of Baghdad 20? When is Imperial Seal going to be under 100 or Mana Drain and Time Vault under 50?

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Originally posted by iccarus:

1. The interesting thing about legacy values is that once the spike, they take forever to fall. I question whether even a year would make some cards take a big enough hit to actually matter. If SCG canned it's Legacy events for a year, I'm sure someone would step in to capitalize on the demand. There's obviously a strong enough interest.

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us europeans do not go to SCG 5Ks.

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Originally posted by MagixDK:

us europeans do not go to SCG 5Ks.

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Originally posted by gaeacradle:
Stu, the link requires a membership. Do u have one without?

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My friends also said they prefer Legacy, where card prices hold up value well. They did complain that Legacy cards are becoming more expensive each day. When I point out that they can just quit Legacy and sell off their cards for a neat profit at current prices, none of them want to do so.

Legacy may be becoming more expensive, but Legacy is also 1 of the more fun format to play in. As long as the number of MTG players do not shrink, Legacy prices will hold up.

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Originally posted by MTDetermine:
My friends told me they are sick of T2 where their cards drop in value by 50% every year. The irony is, they continue to draft a bit, and play some T2 even though they know T2 cards are depreciating steadily every year.

My friends also said they prefer Legacy, where card prices hold up value well. They did complain that Legacy cards are becoming more expensive each day. When I point out that they can just quit Legacy and sell off their cards for a neat profit at current prices, none of them want to do so.

Legacy may be becoming more expensive, but Legacy is also 1 of the more fun format to play in. As long as the number of MTG players do not shrink, Legacy prices will hold up.

If people started to quit MTG in droves (whether T2 or Extended or Legacy), you will have a problem with all MTG prices.

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Originally posted by Philip papas:
what do you guys think about reprinting the staples in like from the vaults : legacy... like the 15 staples you need goyfs fows wastelands...ect... im not really a fan but someone i play magic by it swears that it will happen...? thoughts? i for one would be really ****ed off since i own the cards but people who dont would be really happy..

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While people bring it up, I think this would be the worst "solution" to the problem.

For one, if the lack of adherence to MSRP on previous FTV sets and the like are any indication, these will be just as expensive as buying the cards at retail now.

Second, to have any kind of impact in the actual supply of duals they'd have to flood the market.

I understand the frustration. I tried to pick up an extra copy of Wasteland so I didn't have to keep shuffling my 4th copy between decks and the cube and what once was a "I can wait a bit since it's at $26" decision became a "Holy crap, they're nearly $40 a piece!".

At the same time, Legacy is thriving right now. Does it need to continue to grow? Or can the current card supply be enough to maintain a healthy level of players? The Vintage player base is restricted by the availability of the P9 which were only in A/B/U. As well as being highly sought after (and therefore removed from the players) by collectors.

The extra Revised printing and foreign BB printings mean the availability of the duals is greater and can in theory support more people.

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Originally posted by dwiz:
A From the Vault set with all the Legacy staples would cost like $300. It's not like stores are going to give them away at MSRP ($29) when they have $300 of cards in them. Starcity et. al. charge like $100 for the crap Relics set etc, you think they won't overcharge on a FTV set?

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Not everyone overcharges for this set. I've been able to pick up every one at MSRP or slightly above ($35)

Berserk alone was $50 and the whole FTV was selling for $80 and you got so much more.

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Originally posted by stu55:
I think bubble will burst sooner rather than later, don't think it will even get to the GP

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Originally posted by WeedIan:
Not everyone overcharges for this set. I've been able to pick up every one at MSRP or slightly above ($35)

Berserk alone was $50 and the whole FTV was selling for $80 and you got so much more.

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Originally posted by Teferi Planeswalker:
If people cannot afford decks, then they should get their life in order. I'd say having a good job is more important than playing Legacy.

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