For example, let's say that I want to corner the market on some junk foil mythic rare, like "Cast Through Time" from Rise of the Eldrazi.

I found the following for sale:

abugames: x16
starcity: x15
mtgfanatic: x7
trollandtoad: x2
coolstuffinc: x1
ebay: x15

That's 56 of them, which at about $3 each would only cost $168.

This article http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/misc/17092_Insider_Trading_Fifteen_Fun_Fact s_About_Foils.html estimated that to open a playset of a foil Mythic Rare would cost around $20k in booster boxes, so that means each one costs about $5k worth of booster boxes.

If I buy up 56 of one, then that's the equivalent of all the supply from about $280k of product.

If we estimate that Wizards sold $2 million worth of Rise of the Eldrazi product (this is just a completely random guess), then does that mean there would only be about 400 of each foil Mythic rare in existence, so for about $150 I could be the owner of 1/8 of the total supply?

quote:

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Originally posted by paris:
Does anyone have a guess at how many of each foil mythic rare there are?

For example, let's say that I want to corner the market on some junk foil mythic rare, like "Cast Through Time" from Rise of the Eldrazi.

I found the following for sale:

abugames: x16
starcity: x15
mtgfanatic: x7
trollandtoad: x2
coolstuffinc: x1
ebay: x15

That's 56 of them, which at about $3 each would only cost $168.

This article http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/misc/17092_Insider_Trading_Fifteen_Fun_Fact s_About_Foils.html estimated that to open a playset of a foil Mythic Rare would cost around $20k in booster boxes, so that means each one costs about $5k worth of booster boxes.

If I buy up 56 of one, then that's the equivalent of all the supply from about $280k of product.

If we estimate that Wizards sold $2 million worth of Rise of the Eldrazi product (this is just a completely random guess), then does that mean there would only be about 400 of each foil Mythic rare in existence, so for about $150 I could be the owner of 1/8 of the total supply?

Anyone have any thoughts on this, or better estimates on the numbers that I'm guessing, or know anyone that's tried to collect all of a single foil mythic?

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Theoretically you could indeed influence the price if you hoarded enough of them. Note that some stores cap their advertised quantities in case somebody tries to buy them out for speculation purposes.

__________________
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[16:17] <@BrassMan> what do you need new tech for?
[16:18] <@BrassMan> gush is unrestricted

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Originally posted by mm1983:
Hoarding enough of a card only works for alpha or beta if you are looking to influence the price.

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Originally posted by mm1983:
Hoarding enough of a card only works for alpha or beta if you are looking to influence the price.

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But why is that the case?

Some people could probably make an educated guess at ballparking the print run sizes of the recent sets (e.g., maybe if Hasbro has corporate earnings reports that included data on Wizards), and I imagine that the total number of each foil Mythic Rare in sets like RoE would be under 1,000. Even with a reasonable budget you can easily buy out the full market supply of some of these cards.

Many dealers probably set their prices based on supply/demand. You'd essentially be setting demand at under $5 to be infinite, while supply becomes very limited, so prices will go up.

You probably wouldn't profit much off the scheme, but I think it'd be pretty cool to be able to say that you own like half of all of a single card, and I think you could easily influence the prices.

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Originally posted by paris:
But why is that the case?
...
Many dealers probably set their prices based on supply/demand. You'd essentially be setting demand at under $5 to be infinite, while supply becomes very limited, so prices will go up.

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Originally posted by caquaa:
because there is no demand for crap mythics except for (theoretically) you. Assuming you had some large number of them, what do you do with them? No one would even want them since they are still crap. You would have to speculate and have the card become very worthwhile or buy up a card that already is in demand like Jace TMS or goyf. GL w/ that ;p

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quote:

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Originally posted by caquaa:
because there is no demand for crap mythics except for (theoretically) you. Assuming you had some large number of them, what do you do with them? No one would even want them since they are still crap. You would have to speculate and have the card become very worthwhile or buy up a card that already is in demand like Jace TMS or goyf. GL w/ that ;p

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Originally posted by paris:
I'm interested in whether this exercise is even worth trying, or whether at some point down the road I'd find out that Wizards actually sold $50 million worth of every expansion set, and there are actually 10,000 of each foil mythic rare out there.

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I think that 10K is a more realistic figure.

If you look at revised, we know there are ~300k of each rare. If a new set was printed in the same quantity, that would mean ~150k of each mythic. The odds of pulling a foil rare are ~ 1 in 30, so that would mean ~5K of each mythic foil. I think it is a safe bet that WOTC is printing more cards now then in 1994 with regular boosters plus MTGO redemptions. Double might even be a low estimate.

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Originally posted by rats60:
I think that 10K is a more realistic figure.

If you look at revised, we know there are ~300k of each rare. If a new set was printed in the same quantity, that would mean ~150k of each mythic. The odds of pulling a foil rare are ~ 1 in 30, so that would mean ~5K of each mythic foil. I think it is a safe bet that WOTC is printing more cards now then in 1994 with regular boosters plus MTGO redemptions. Double might even be a low estimate.

What makes Alpha worth hoarding is the low number of cards printed plus the number of cards lost or destroyed over the last 20 years plus the plus the appeal to collectors of putting together the first Magic set. Now if you were hoarding a Russian or Korean foil of a playable card or a low run promo like the full art States Top 8 promos, then you have something you could impact the market. Regular foils are just too plentiful.

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Originally posted by Volcanon:
Almost 100% guaranteed the print run of present sets is higher than Revised. Probably orders of magnitude higher.

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I don't know about that.

Revised was the primary core set for a full year.

Expansion sets like RoE only seem to be out for 4-6 months before the next one expansion.

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Originally posted by paris:
I don't know about that.

Revised was the primary core set for a full year.

Expansion sets like RoE only seem to be out for 4-6 months before the next one expansion.

From skimming Hasbro earnings reports, I would guess that Wizards has closer to $50m revenue per year than $50m revenue from each 4-6 month expansion set. If they made $20m from RoE, then that would indicate around 4,000 of each foil Mythic rare.

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Originally posted by Volcanon:
Is that gross or net? Rememer that after all costs wizards probably doesn't make that much off a box. Stuff's gotta get printed, shipped, et al.

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Originally posted by paris:
I'd imagine that printing and shipping costs are negligible compared to what they sell it for. An $80 box probably costs like $10 to print and ship.

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Okey so let's see...
- R&D Costs
- Distribution costs from BELGIUM
- Printing costs
- Distribution to shops (either directly or 3rd party)
- Profit margin of stores and distributors (stores buy for half what they sell at)

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Originally posted by mtglover:
Although technically the card us suppose to be out of print, wizards are still printing foil worldwake cards for the mtgo redemption, so there is still no definite number yet.

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Originally posted by - Profit margin of stores and distributors (stores buy for half what they sell at):
[b][/b]

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not correct. In my country stores have a profit margin on boosters at roughly 15-20%, since no one sells at msrp.
msrp is 6 dollars per booster.

"An example of the successful execution of this
approach is MAGIC: THE GATHERING. The team at
Wizards of the Coast has done a tremendous job
of taking this brand, which totaled less than $100
million in revenues in 2008 and was declining, to
where it is today".

They don't say anymore, but I'll assume to say they successfully turned things around would be to say they at least doubled revenue. So if revenue was a bit less than $100mm in 2008 I'll assume it's around $200mm per year today. Each pack is around $2 when sold direct, so they sell around 100 million packs a year, split among 4 sets. If they sold 25 million packs of a big set thats with a 1/120 chance of each mythic and a 1/30 chance of a mythic being foil then that's:

quote:

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Originally posted by paris:
I don't know about that.

Revised was the primary core set for a full year.

Expansion sets like RoE only seem to be out for 4-6 months before the next one expansion.

From skimming Hasbro earnings reports, I would guess that Wizards has closer to $50m revenue per year than $50m revenue from each 4-6 month expansion set. If they made $20m from RoE, then that would indicate around 4,000 of each foil Mythic rare.

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Revised was the primary core set for a year, but do you realize how hard it was to buy? You couldn't just place an order and get what you want. Current sets are much easier to buy. Also, there were zero MTGO redemptions for Revised compared to tons for current sets.

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Originally posted by aws:
208,333 of each mythic rare
6,944 of each foil mythic rare

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That estimate seems fairly reasonable.

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Originally posted by rats60:
Revised was the primary core set for a year, but do you realize how hard it was to buy? You couldn't just place an order and get what you want. Current sets are much easier to buy. Also, there were zero MTGO redemptions for Revised compared to tons for current sets.

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At least where I was, Revised was fairly easy to buy from stores and generally in stock. It was sets like Legends that were very hard to get.

quote:

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Originally posted by paris:
At least where I was, Revised was fairly easy to buy from stores and generally in stock. It was sets like Legends that were very hard to get.

I wouldn't think there are tons of MTGO redemptions for foil expansion sets. Redemption requires a full set. For every collector, player or dealer online who wants to keep a foil playset of any good Mythic Rare, that prevents 4 foil sets from being redeemed. Back when I played MTGO, I bought up every single one of a particular 7th edition foil rare that I liked and also all of a particular Apocalypse foil rare that I liked, and that by itself raised the prices for those cards and possibly made redemption that much harder for anyone trying to collect together foil sets to redeem.

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