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Author Topic:   How many duals were printed?
LandDestroyer
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posted November 18, 2014 11:20 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for LandDestroyer Click Here to Email LandDestroyer Send a private message to LandDestroyer Click to send LandDestroyer an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View LandDestroyer's Have/Want ListView LandDestroyer's Have/Want List
So we've got duals from
Alpha (I feel like I remember someone saying there were about 11,000 of each rare from Alpha)
Beta (same as beta)
Unlimited - never heard #s of print run
Revised - again, never heard
Summer magic - Like 11 of each rare out there give or take a conspiracy theory or two

Does anyone have a documented source of how many of each rare from those 4 sets there are?

 
coasterdude84
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posted November 18, 2014 11:29 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for coasterdude84 Click Here to Email coasterdude84 Send a private message to coasterdude84 Click to send coasterdude84 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
Per Crystal Keep:

1,100 Alpha Rare
4,500 Alpha Uncommon
16,000 Alpha Common
85,500 Alpha Land (per picture)

3,200 Beta Rare
13,500 Beta Uncommon
48,000 Beta Common
171,500 Beta Land (per picture)

5,000 International Collector's Set
10,000 Collector's Set

4,300 Limited Rare (Alpha+Beta)
18,000 Limited Uncommon (Alpha+Beta)
64,000 Limited Common (Alpha+Beta)
228,500 Limited Land (Alpha+Beta) (per picture)

18,500 Unlimited Rare
68,000 Unlimited Uncommon
244,500 Unlimited Common
872,500 Unlimited Land (per picture)

289,000 Revised Rare
1,012,000 Revised Uncommon
3,657,000 Revised Common
12,969,500 Revised Land (per picture)

I don't believe there are any known numbers regarding Summer. It's speculated to be "larger than you think," but that's a pretty broad term.

EDIT: Interestingly, this means there are more Revised Bayous than Alpha Forests.

[Edited 2 times, lastly by coasterdude84 on November 18, 2014]

 
oneofchaos
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posted November 18, 2014 11:37 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for oneofchaos Click Here to Email oneofchaos Send a private message to oneofchaos Click to send oneofchaos an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
311800 is total number of unl/rev/beta/alpha for quick glance. I'd like to assume at least 15/20% are either destroyed/lost/sealed in product. That seem reasonable?
 
LandDestroyer
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posted November 18, 2014 11:44 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for LandDestroyer Click Here to Email LandDestroyer Send a private message to LandDestroyer Click to send LandDestroyer an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View LandDestroyer's Have/Want ListView LandDestroyer's Have/Want List
Based on what is said in this thread and the assumption the AVERAGE legacy deck runs 6 duals (some 8, some none) enough duals were printed to support about 52,000 legacy players.
If you assume 20% are unavailable for 1 reason or another that means there are enough duals to support about 41,000-42,000 legacy players.
 
gaeacradle
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posted November 18, 2014 12:03 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for gaeacradle Click Here to Email gaeacradle Send a private message to gaeacradle Click to send gaeacradle an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View gaeacradle's Have/Want ListView gaeacradle's Have/Want List
Don't forget FBB and FWB too.
 
LandDestroyer
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posted November 18, 2014 12:27 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for LandDestroyer Click Here to Email LandDestroyer Send a private message to LandDestroyer Click to send LandDestroyer an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View LandDestroyer's Have/Want ListView LandDestroyer's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by gaeacradle:
Don't forget FBB and FWB too.

Hmm, good point. I'd just assumed those were in the revised #s above but they probably weren't. Quick, someone get us more numbers!

 
mm1983
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posted November 19, 2014 04:12 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for mm1983 Click Here to Email mm1983 Send a private message to mm1983 Click to send mm1983 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View mm1983's Have/Want ListView mm1983's Have/Want List
Known fact : There are 0 Alpha Volcanic Islands. It was forgotten about because they decided to use the original art of Volcanic Island for Birds of Paradise.

Summer magic fact from wikipedia : The Summer Magic print run of Revised Edition were printed in the summer of 1994.[11] This print run intended to fix some of the errors with Revised, including the washed-out color. As it turned out, the Summer Magic run had problems of its own. The colors were considered too dark and the artist credited for Plateau stayed uncorrected as well as the artist credited for Serendib Efreet, although the Efreet had received its original color and art again. Also a famous new misprint occurred with the card Hurricane; the so-called "blue Hurricane" is one of the rarest and most sought-after cards in the entirety of Magic because of its misprint with a blue border.[12] On the secondary market it sells for thousands of dollars. The print run was recalled and destroyed; however, about 40 booster boxes that were shipped to England and Tennessee survived. No more than 11 or 12 of each rare exists.[13]

This print run is known primarily for its extremely scarce and valuable cards and packs. Cards are distinguished by dark coloring and a 1994 copyright date displayed at the bottom, along with the artist credit. Booster packs look identical to normal Revised Edition packs, and as such, telling them apart is impossible without opening them. No starter decks were made.

 
lordofthepit23
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posted November 25, 2014 02:39 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for lordofthepit23 Click Here to Email lordofthepit23 Send a private message to lordofthepit23 Click to send lordofthepit23 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by LandDestroyer:
Based on what is said in this thread and the assumption the AVERAGE legacy deck runs 6 duals (some 8, some none) enough duals were printed to support about 52,000 legacy players.
If you assume 20% are unavailable for 1 reason or another that means there are enough duals to support about 41,000-42,000 legacy players.

That assumes everyone wants the same dual land (e.g. Volcanic Island). Which is unlikely given that you're assuming 6 dual lands per deck!

Even assuming that some dual lands are pretty "unplayable", the number should be about 5x higher. And I would argue that the average Legacy deck actually runs significantly fewer than 6 duals.

 
LandDestroyer
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posted November 25, 2014 08:26 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for LandDestroyer Click Here to Email LandDestroyer Send a private message to LandDestroyer Click to send LandDestroyer an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View LandDestroyer's Have/Want ListView LandDestroyer's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by lordofthepit23:
That assumes everyone wants the same dual land (e.g. Volcanic Island). Which is unlikely given that you're assuming 6 dual lands per deck!

Even assuming that some dual lands are pretty "unplayable", the number should be about 5x higher. And I would argue that the average Legacy deck actually runs significantly fewer than 6 duals.


Ya, my comment was definitely simplifying things. Some duals not being played actually decreases the number though - not increases b/c those shouldn't be considered in the available pool. The average legacy deck running less than 6 duals on average would then raise the number back up. That's why I was comfortable with my 'average'.

Still looking for numbers on how many fwb and fbb duals there are.

 
thror
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posted November 25, 2014 11:51 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for thror Send a private message to thror Click to send thror an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
i still think the math is wrong. there are ~312k of EACH dual. 3.12 million total. if you say 20% are 'unavailable', that leaves us 2.5 million duals, at 6 per deck. That's 415k total decks.
 
LandDestroyer
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posted November 25, 2014 12:03 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for LandDestroyer Click Here to Email LandDestroyer Send a private message to LandDestroyer Click to send LandDestroyer an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View LandDestroyer's Have/Want ListView LandDestroyer's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by thror:
i still think the math is wrong. there are ~312k of EACH dual. 3.12 million total. if you say 20% are 'unavailable', that leaves us 2.5 million duals, at 6 per deck. That's 415k total decks.

I'll have to go back and check but I think you did just correct an error I hadn't noticed. I may have calculated as if there were 312k total duals not 312k of EACH dual. so then there would be about 10x the amount I postulated.

 
hilikuS
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posted November 25, 2014 01:28 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for hilikuS Click Here to Email hilikuS Send a private message to hilikuS Click to send hilikuS an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View hilikuS's Trade Auction or SaleView hilikuS's Trade Auction or Sale
Jeez... so like the total number of duals that exist based on these numbers is probably worth like half a billion dollars? That's nuts.
 
Chuu
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posted December 03, 2014 11:54 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Chuu Click Here to Email Chuu Send a private message to Chuu Click to send Chuu an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by hilikuS:
Jeez... so like the total number of duals that exist based on these numbers is probably worth like half a billion dollars? That's nuts.

Maybe marked-to-market, which is almost always a gross overestimation of liquidation value. MtM is so high though, because these tend to be so "sticky" so a mass liquidation is unlikely barring something crazy like revoking the reprint policy and reprinting them in something like Commander.

 
coolio
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posted December 04, 2014 06:03 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for coolio Click Here to Email coolio Send a private message to coolio Click to send coolio an Instant MessageVisit coolio's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by mm1983:
Known fact : There are 0 Alpha Volcanic Islands. It was forgotten about because they decided to use the original art of Volcanic Island for Birds of Paradise.

Summer magic fact from wikipedia : The Summer Magic print run of Revised Edition were printed in the summer of 1994.[11] This print run intended to fix some of the errors with Revised, including the washed-out color. As it turned out, the Summer Magic run had problems of its own. The colors were considered too dark and the artist credited for Plateau stayed uncorrected as well as the artist credited for Serendib Efreet, although the Efreet had received its original color and art again. Also a famous new misprint occurred with the card Hurricane; the so-called "blue Hurricane" is one of the rarest and most sought-after cards in the entirety of Magic because of its misprint with a blue border.[12] On the secondary market it sells for thousands of dollars. The print run was recalled and destroyed; however, about 40 booster boxes that were shipped to England and Tennessee survived. No more than 11 or 12 of each rare exists.[13]

This print run is known primarily for its extremely scarce and valuable cards and packs. Cards are distinguished by dark coloring and a 1994 copyright date displayed at the bottom, along with the artist credit. Booster packs look identical to normal Revised Edition packs, and as such, telling them apart is impossible without opening them. No starter decks were made.



i find that "known" fact completely dubious and full of crap.. volcanic island, cop: black, and the third art for each basic were left off the print run by accident.. as for the birds pic being "originally intended for volcanic" is not something I've ever heard of.. where the heck are you getting this from? also, the wikipedia as for "cited" source on summer? are you kidding? the collector community has basically acknowledged there are 10 complete sets in private hands.. and there's been a bunch of stuff that's been moving about, way higher number than the 11-12 supposed of each rare... nevermind there's been one particular dealer who came upon a fairly large lot recently and has been piecing it out

__________________
Since it is obviously inconceivable that all religions can be right, the most reasonable conclusion is that they are all wrong.
-Christopher Hitchens

Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful.
-Seneca the Younger

 
LandDestroyer
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posted December 04, 2014 07:11 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for LandDestroyer Click Here to Email LandDestroyer Send a private message to LandDestroyer Click to send LandDestroyer an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View LandDestroyer's Have/Want ListView LandDestroyer's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by coolio:

i find that "known" fact completely dubious and full of crap.. volcanic island, cop: black, and the third art for each basic were left off the print run by accident.. as for the birds pic being "originally intended for volcanic" is not something I've ever heard of.. where the heck are you getting this from? also, the wikipedia as for "cited" source on summer? are you kidding? the collector community has basically acknowledged there are 10 complete sets in private hands.. and there's been a bunch of stuff that's been moving about, way higher number than the 11-12 supposed of each rare... nevermind there's been one particular dealer who came upon a fairly large lot recently and has been piecing it out


This is true. BoP was created to utilize the original dual land artwork. I'm sorry, since WOTC garbaged up their site I cannot find the original article but this is fairly common knowledge. I remember reading an article about it 10ish years ago on the WOTC site myself.

As far as Summer magic goes, there is a lot of disagreement on those numbers. It doesn't appear you have chimed in here
http://classic.magictraders.com/ubb/Forum1/HTML/026172.html

Have sources to backup your Summer comments?

[Edited 1 times, lastly by LandDestroyer on December 04, 2014]

 
Leeroy
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posted December 04, 2014 08:29 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Leeroy Click Here to Email Leeroy Send a private message to Leeroy Click to send Leeroy an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
http://archive.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtgcom/cotd/0302

quote:
Card of the Day - March, 2002
The Birds have been one of the staples of the game since it began, but they were created as an afterthought. Their art was originally supposed to be for Tropical Island, but the bird was too prominent. So Richard Garfield created a card just for the art, and it ended up being the most versatile mana-producing creature ever.

 
LandDestroyer
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posted December 04, 2014 11:44 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for LandDestroyer Click Here to Email LandDestroyer Send a private message to LandDestroyer Click to send LandDestroyer an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View LandDestroyer's Have/Want ListView LandDestroyer's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by Leeroy:
http://archive.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtgcom/cotd/0302


Thanks for finding this! Now if we could just find #s for these print runs:
"Black bordered, limited editions were produced in French, German, and Italian.
Unlimited, white bordered editions in the same languages were produced after the limited editions had sold out."

 
coolio
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posted December 04, 2014 02:36 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for coolio Click Here to Email coolio Send a private message to coolio Click to send coolio an Instant MessageVisit coolio's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by LandDestroyer:

Have sources to backup your Summer comments?

sure, lemme go edit wikipedia and cite that

__________________
Since it is obviously inconceivable that all religions can be right, the most reasonable conclusion is that they are all wrong.
-Christopher Hitchens

Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful.
-Seneca the Younger

 
LandDestroyer
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posted December 04, 2014 04:52 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for LandDestroyer Click Here to Email LandDestroyer Send a private message to LandDestroyer Click to send LandDestroyer an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View LandDestroyer's Have/Want ListView LandDestroyer's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by coolio:
sure, lemme go edit wikipedia and cite that


Hey, I'm still marking this day down in history that I was right about BoP :-P

 
guruswamp
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posted December 05, 2014 04:04 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for guruswamp Click Here to Email guruswamp Send a private message to guruswamp Click to send guruswamp an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by LandDestroyer:
Hey, I'm still marking this day down in history that I was right about BoP :-P

I think its more that Coolio was wrong that you want to immortalize than the fact that you were right lol

 
dfitzg88
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posted December 05, 2014 04:42 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for dfitzg88 Click Here to Email dfitzg88 Send a private message to dfitzg88 Click to send dfitzg88 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by LandDestroyer:
Hey, I'm still marking this day down in history that I was right about BoP :-P

Volcanic Island is not Tropical Island

 
angryshrub
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posted December 05, 2014 10:46 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for angryshrub Click Here to Email angryshrub Send a private message to angryshrub Click to send angryshrub an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by dfitzg88:
Volcanic Island is not Tropical Island

So they're both wrong, then!

 
mm1983
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posted December 06, 2014 03:25 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for mm1983 Click Here to Email mm1983 Send a private message to mm1983 Click to send mm1983 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View mm1983's Have/Want ListView mm1983's Have/Want List
For Summer Magic it's all calculation based on the assumption that there are only 40 booster boxes in existence. Does anyone know for a fact that there are really many more than 40 booster boxes of Summer Magic out there? If you do the math for 40 booster boxes times 36 booster packs comes out to a total of 1,440 rares then take that number divided by 121 rares in the whole set of revised comes out to roughly 12 of each rare. If it is true that there are only 10 complete sets of Summer Magic in private hands then the number of 40 booster boxes in existence is obviously wrong. Seeing that there would be 10 complete sets out there lets assume that 10% of all available Summer Magic is held by people or stores who own complete sets of it then the other 90% of Summer Magic is owned by people who just have pieces of it and some of that 90% would have been destroyed as well due to natural disaster or other accidental damage. This would lead to there being 100 of each rare or a total of 12100 rares give or take for public hands. This would also mean there would have been roughly 336 booster boxes of Summer Magic available to the retail public and possibly in other areas other than Tennessee or England where they claim that all of the sealed Summer Magic got sold in stores.
 
dfitzg88
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posted December 06, 2014 04:43 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for dfitzg88 Click Here to Email dfitzg88 Send a private message to dfitzg88 Click to send dfitzg88 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by mm1983:
This would lead to there being 100 of each rare

For the purposes of calculating how many duals exist, erring on the side of caution and saying 100 of each in Edgar is reasonable and doesn't change the numbers much. Also because of how easily these can be identified by an average player, none of them will ever end up in a deck.

Does anyone know ANY information on print runs of ANY FBB at all? Even extrapolating from just the info off of one country would give some sort of estimate.

Edit: Also, suggesting that the number of people who can play legacy is limited by the number of dual lands that exist is biased by the need for the 'optimal version' of each deck. If dual lands are too expensive to play in legacy, people will play something else. Legacy can evolve beyond the need for a dual land.

[Edited 1 times, lastly by dfitzg88 on December 06, 2014]

 
mm1983
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posted December 06, 2014 06:33 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for mm1983 Click Here to Email mm1983 Send a private message to mm1983 Click to send mm1983 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View mm1983's Have/Want ListView mm1983's Have/Want List
On the topic of summer magic does anyone know if there are any misprinted or crimped summer magic cards in existence?
 

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