Author
|
Topic: How many duals were printed?
|
LandDestroyer Member
|
posted November 18, 2014 11:20 AM
So we've got duals from Alpha (I feel like I remember someone saying there were about 11,000 of each rare from Alpha) Beta (same as beta) Unlimited - never heard #s of print run Revised - again, never heard Summer magic - Like 11 of each rare out there give or take a conspiracy theory or twoDoes anyone have a documented source of how many of each rare from those 4 sets there are?
|
coasterdude84 Member
|
posted November 18, 2014 11:29 AM
Per Crystal Keep: 1,100 Alpha Rare 4,500 Alpha Uncommon 16,000 Alpha Common 85,500 Alpha Land (per picture) 3,200 Beta Rare 13,500 Beta Uncommon 48,000 Beta Common 171,500 Beta Land (per picture) 5,000 International Collector's Set 10,000 Collector's Set 4,300 Limited Rare (Alpha+Beta) 18,000 Limited Uncommon (Alpha+Beta) 64,000 Limited Common (Alpha+Beta) 228,500 Limited Land (Alpha+Beta) (per picture) 18,500 Unlimited Rare 68,000 Unlimited Uncommon 244,500 Unlimited Common 872,500 Unlimited Land (per picture) 289,000 Revised Rare 1,012,000 Revised Uncommon 3,657,000 Revised Common 12,969,500 Revised Land (per picture) I don't believe there are any known numbers regarding Summer. It's speculated to be "larger than you think," but that's a pretty broad term. EDIT: Interestingly, this means there are more Revised Bayous than Alpha Forests.
[Edited 2 times, lastly by coasterdude84 on November 18, 2014]
|
oneofchaos Member
|
posted November 18, 2014 11:37 AM
311800 is total number of unl/rev/beta/alpha for quick glance. I'd like to assume at least 15/20% are either destroyed/lost/sealed in product. That seem reasonable?
|
LandDestroyer Member
|
posted November 18, 2014 11:44 AM
Based on what is said in this thread and the assumption the AVERAGE legacy deck runs 6 duals (some 8, some none) enough duals were printed to support about 52,000 legacy players. If you assume 20% are unavailable for 1 reason or another that means there are enough duals to support about 41,000-42,000 legacy players.
|
gaeacradle Member
|
posted November 18, 2014 12:03 PM
Don't forget FBB and FWB too.
|
LandDestroyer Member
|
posted November 18, 2014 12:27 PM
quote: Originally posted by gaeacradle: Don't forget FBB and FWB too.
Hmm, good point. I'd just assumed those were in the revised #s above but they probably weren't. Quick, someone get us more numbers!
|
mm1983 Member
|
posted November 19, 2014 04:12 AM
Known fact : There are 0 Alpha Volcanic Islands. It was forgotten about because they decided to use the original art of Volcanic Island for Birds of Paradise. Summer magic fact from wikipedia : The Summer Magic print run of Revised Edition were printed in the summer of 1994.[11] This print run intended to fix some of the errors with Revised, including the washed-out color. As it turned out, the Summer Magic run had problems of its own. The colors were considered too dark and the artist credited for Plateau stayed uncorrected as well as the artist credited for Serendib Efreet, although the Efreet had received its original color and art again. Also a famous new misprint occurred with the card Hurricane; the so-called "blue Hurricane" is one of the rarest and most sought-after cards in the entirety of Magic because of its misprint with a blue border.[12] On the secondary market it sells for thousands of dollars. The print run was recalled and destroyed; however, about 40 booster boxes that were shipped to England and Tennessee survived. No more than 11 or 12 of each rare exists.[13] This print run is known primarily for its extremely scarce and valuable cards and packs. Cards are distinguished by dark coloring and a 1994 copyright date displayed at the bottom, along with the artist credit. Booster packs look identical to normal Revised Edition packs, and as such, telling them apart is impossible without opening them. No starter decks were made.
|
lordofthepit23 Member
|
posted November 25, 2014 02:39 AM
quote: Originally posted by LandDestroyer: Based on what is said in this thread and the assumption the AVERAGE legacy deck runs 6 duals (some 8, some none) enough duals were printed to support about 52,000 legacy players. If you assume 20% are unavailable for 1 reason or another that means there are enough duals to support about 41,000-42,000 legacy players.
That assumes everyone wants the same dual land (e.g. Volcanic Island). Which is unlikely given that you're assuming 6 dual lands per deck! Even assuming that some dual lands are pretty "unplayable", the number should be about 5x higher. And I would argue that the average Legacy deck actually runs significantly fewer than 6 duals.
|
LandDestroyer Member
|
posted November 25, 2014 08:26 AM
quote: Originally posted by lordofthepit23: That assumes everyone wants the same dual land (e.g. Volcanic Island). Which is unlikely given that you're assuming 6 dual lands per deck!Even assuming that some dual lands are pretty "unplayable", the number should be about 5x higher. And I would argue that the average Legacy deck actually runs significantly fewer than 6 duals.
Ya, my comment was definitely simplifying things. Some duals not being played actually decreases the number though - not increases b/c those shouldn't be considered in the available pool. The average legacy deck running less than 6 duals on average would then raise the number back up. That's why I was comfortable with my 'average'. Still looking for numbers on how many fwb and fbb duals there are.
|
thror Member
|
posted November 25, 2014 11:51 AM
i still think the math is wrong. there are ~312k of EACH dual. 3.12 million total. if you say 20% are 'unavailable', that leaves us 2.5 million duals, at 6 per deck. That's 415k total decks.
|
LandDestroyer Member
|
posted November 25, 2014 12:03 PM
quote: Originally posted by thror: i still think the math is wrong. there are ~312k of EACH dual. 3.12 million total. if you say 20% are 'unavailable', that leaves us 2.5 million duals, at 6 per deck. That's 415k total decks.
I'll have to go back and check but I think you did just correct an error I hadn't noticed. I may have calculated as if there were 312k total duals not 312k of EACH dual. so then there would be about 10x the amount I postulated.
|
hilikuS Member
|
posted November 25, 2014 01:28 PM
Jeez... so like the total number of duals that exist based on these numbers is probably worth like half a billion dollars? That's nuts.
|
Chuu New Member
|
posted December 03, 2014 11:54 PM
quote: Originally posted by hilikuS: Jeez... so like the total number of duals that exist based on these numbers is probably worth like half a billion dollars? That's nuts.
Maybe marked-to-market, which is almost always a gross overestimation of liquidation value. MtM is so high though, because these tend to be so "sticky" so a mass liquidation is unlikely barring something crazy like revoking the reprint policy and reprinting them in something like Commander.
|
coolio Member
|
posted December 04, 2014 06:03 AM
quote: Originally posted by mm1983: Known fact : There are 0 Alpha Volcanic Islands. It was forgotten about because they decided to use the original art of Volcanic Island for Birds of Paradise. Summer magic fact from wikipedia : The Summer Magic print run of Revised Edition were printed in the summer of 1994.[11] This print run intended to fix some of the errors with Revised, including the washed-out color. As it turned out, the Summer Magic run had problems of its own. The colors were considered too dark and the artist credited for Plateau stayed uncorrected as well as the artist credited for Serendib Efreet, although the Efreet had received its original color and art again. Also a famous new misprint occurred with the card Hurricane; the so-called "blue Hurricane" is one of the rarest and most sought-after cards in the entirety of Magic because of its misprint with a blue border.[12] On the secondary market it sells for thousands of dollars. The print run was recalled and destroyed; however, about 40 booster boxes that were shipped to England and Tennessee survived. No more than 11 or 12 of each rare exists.[13] This print run is known primarily for its extremely scarce and valuable cards and packs. Cards are distinguished by dark coloring and a 1994 copyright date displayed at the bottom, along with the artist credit. Booster packs look identical to normal Revised Edition packs, and as such, telling them apart is impossible without opening them. No starter decks were made.
i find that "known" fact completely dubious and full of crap.. volcanic island, cop: black, and the third art for each basic were left off the print run by accident.. as for the birds pic being "originally intended for volcanic" is not something I've ever heard of.. where the heck are you getting this from? also, the wikipedia as for "cited" source on summer? are you kidding? the collector community has basically acknowledged there are 10 complete sets in private hands.. and there's been a bunch of stuff that's been moving about, way higher number than the 11-12 supposed of each rare... nevermind there's been one particular dealer who came upon a fairly large lot recently and has been piecing it out
© __________________ Since it is obviously inconceivable that all religions can be right, the most reasonable conclusion is that they are all wrong. -Christopher HitchensReligion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful. -Seneca the Younger
|
LandDestroyer Member
|
posted December 04, 2014 07:11 AM
quote: Originally posted by coolio:
i find that "known" fact completely dubious and full of crap.. volcanic island, cop: black, and the third art for each basic were left off the print run by accident.. as for the birds pic being "originally intended for volcanic" is not something I've ever heard of.. where the heck are you getting this from? also, the wikipedia as for "cited" source on summer? are you kidding? the collector community has basically acknowledged there are 10 complete sets in private hands.. and there's been a bunch of stuff that's been moving about, way higher number than the 11-12 supposed of each rare... nevermind there's been one particular dealer who came upon a fairly large lot recently and has been piecing it out©
This is true. BoP was created to utilize the original dual land artwork. I'm sorry, since WOTC garbaged up their site I cannot find the original article but this is fairly common knowledge. I remember reading an article about it 10ish years ago on the WOTC site myself. As far as Summer magic goes, there is a lot of disagreement on those numbers. It doesn't appear you have chimed in here http://classic.magictraders.com/ubb/Forum1/HTML/026172.html Have sources to backup your Summer comments?
[Edited 1 times, lastly by LandDestroyer on December 04, 2014]
|
Leeroy Member
|
posted December 04, 2014 08:29 AM
http://archive.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtgcom/cotd/0302quote: Card of the Day - March, 2002 The Birds have been one of the staples of the game since it began, but they were created as an afterthought. Their art was originally supposed to be for Tropical Island, but the bird was too prominent. So Richard Garfield created a card just for the art, and it ended up being the most versatile mana-producing creature ever.
|
LandDestroyer Member
|
posted December 04, 2014 11:44 AM
quote: Originally posted by Leeroy: http://archive.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtgcom/cotd/0302
Thanks for finding this! Now if we could just find #s for these print runs: "Black bordered, limited editions were produced in French, German, and Italian. Unlimited, white bordered editions in the same languages were produced after the limited editions had sold out."
|
coolio Member
|
posted December 04, 2014 02:36 PM
quote: Originally posted by LandDestroyer:
Have sources to backup your Summer comments?
sure, lemme go edit wikipedia and cite that © __________________ Since it is obviously inconceivable that all religions can be right, the most reasonable conclusion is that they are all wrong. -Christopher HitchensReligion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful. -Seneca the Younger
|
LandDestroyer Member
|
posted December 04, 2014 04:52 PM
quote: Originally posted by coolio: sure, lemme go edit wikipedia and cite that©
Hey, I'm still marking this day down in history that I was right about BoP :-P
|
guruswamp Member
|
posted December 05, 2014 04:04 AM
quote: Originally posted by LandDestroyer: Hey, I'm still marking this day down in history that I was right about BoP :-P
I think its more that Coolio was wrong that you want to immortalize than the fact that you were right lol
|
dfitzg88 Member
|
posted December 05, 2014 04:42 AM
quote: Originally posted by LandDestroyer: Hey, I'm still marking this day down in history that I was right about BoP :-P
Volcanic Island is not Tropical Island
|
angryshrub Member
|
posted December 05, 2014 10:46 PM
quote: Originally posted by dfitzg88: Volcanic Island is not Tropical Island
So they're both wrong, then!
|
mm1983 Member
|
posted December 06, 2014 03:25 AM
For Summer Magic it's all calculation based on the assumption that there are only 40 booster boxes in existence. Does anyone know for a fact that there are really many more than 40 booster boxes of Summer Magic out there? If you do the math for 40 booster boxes times 36 booster packs comes out to a total of 1,440 rares then take that number divided by 121 rares in the whole set of revised comes out to roughly 12 of each rare. If it is true that there are only 10 complete sets of Summer Magic in private hands then the number of 40 booster boxes in existence is obviously wrong. Seeing that there would be 10 complete sets out there lets assume that 10% of all available Summer Magic is held by people or stores who own complete sets of it then the other 90% of Summer Magic is owned by people who just have pieces of it and some of that 90% would have been destroyed as well due to natural disaster or other accidental damage. This would lead to there being 100 of each rare or a total of 12100 rares give or take for public hands. This would also mean there would have been roughly 336 booster boxes of Summer Magic available to the retail public and possibly in other areas other than Tennessee or England where they claim that all of the sealed Summer Magic got sold in stores.
|
dfitzg88 Member
|
posted December 06, 2014 04:43 AM
quote: Originally posted by mm1983: This would lead to there being 100 of each rare
For the purposes of calculating how many duals exist, erring on the side of caution and saying 100 of each in Edgar is reasonable and doesn't change the numbers much. Also because of how easily these can be identified by an average player, none of them will ever end up in a deck. Does anyone know ANY information on print runs of ANY FBB at all? Even extrapolating from just the info off of one country would give some sort of estimate. Edit: Also, suggesting that the number of people who can play legacy is limited by the number of dual lands that exist is biased by the need for the 'optimal version' of each deck. If dual lands are too expensive to play in legacy, people will play something else. Legacy can evolve beyond the need for a dual land.
[Edited 1 times, lastly by dfitzg88 on December 06, 2014]
|
mm1983 Member
|
posted December 06, 2014 06:33 AM
On the topic of summer magic does anyone know if there are any misprinted or crimped summer magic cards in existence?
| |