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Originally posted by Zeckk:
That's a rather large list of statements without any proof. Foreign foil prices are driven by demand, and demand is primarily driven by playability. All the arguments as to why foreign foils are a safe bet are because currently the only foreign foils worth any kind of money are the ones with massive casual appeal or playability.

Foreign foils are not like alpha or beta in the sense that even commons/uncommons are worth money, despite the argument that a crappy foil mythic like a foil Russian Abyssal Persecutor has fewer copies in existence than black border Black Lotus. Furthermore, the demand for magic rarities isn't even mainstream within the magic community, and foreign foils are a subset of the rarity guys. Every sign points towards a luxury bubble based more on speculation than demand.

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Just as an example, Cast Through Time is a blue mythic from ROE. Completely unplayable, and no casual appeal. The japanese foil versions are only double the price of english foils. http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_sacat=0&_kw=foil+cast+through+time

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Originally posted by Zeckk:
Playability has almost everything to do with it. Casual appeal is a factor, but playability still determines whether or not a foreign foil reaches a ludicrous price jump over a non-foil version.

Just as an example, Cast Through Time is a blue mythic from ROE. Completely unplayable, and no casual appeal. The japanese foil versions are only double the price of english foils. http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_sacat=0&_kw=foil+cast+through+time

Meanwhile, something like Trygon predator foreign foil lists for ten times the price of an english foil, because demand in 3 formats (cube, vintage, EDH) drives the demand.

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Originally posted by Zeckk:
Jace is also a staple in legacy, which is a real-deal constructed format with a quantifiable market that sets demand. It's extremely difficult to make a generalization about magic card pricing without listing the exceptions to every example, especially for something like JTMS, whose status as "best walker of all time" was a result of his playability, which feeds into his popularity, which then sustains a portion of his value even if he were suddenly unplayable. With that said, his playability in legacy and speculation that he could come off the modern banlist at some point are the primary factors setting his non-foil english price, and the other casual formats he's in pad that price a bit. I fully understand that there is a segment of the magic community that consists of pure collectors, but those guys don't equate to 100% of the demand for hard-to-get foils of playble cards. When was the last time someone saw a collection of bulk foreign foils? Even at rare or mythic?

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Originally posted by baldr7:
but we're not talking about bulk foreign foils. we're talking about foil russian jace. I'm saying there ARENT ENOUGH of them for there to be a bubble. supply is so low that even if you wanted to jump on the band wagon, you couldnt. How do you refute that?

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foils are rarer than non foils, so that drives the price on highly playable foils higher than that of non playables, regardless of how many exist in the universe of any given card.

the thing with magic that is different from other collectables is exactly that the nature of the game drives the prices on cards....if its jank, its worthless....if its jace 2 its $$$$$.

rarity rarely factors in even on in print stuff....many of the better uncommons in any given set are worth more than 95% of the rares and mythics cause they r better.......there is even more of them at UC than the ****ty rares and they are still worth more.....demand?

as for foreign foils, well....

seems to be some sort of competitive consumption thing going on here...status setting, spoiled rich kiddery or something. just seems like someone told everyone foil russian was PIMP and now it is. just like scg told everyone legacy staples doubled last night and lo and behold!!!!

they were right

See, the Supply of Russian foil Jaces is extremely low. Who cares how many were printed? The point is, you can't find them because the folks who have them don't want to get rid of them.

Now, let's look at Demand. The Demand is really high because it's generally accepted as the pimpest version of Jace, other than some hypothetical and unlikely miscut version.

So when you have a card where the Supply is extremely low, and the Demand is extremely high, you have a situation where people can charge pretty much whatever they want for that particular item. That's what has happened here. Is it a bubble? Yes, but it may never pop. In order for the bubble to pop, either supply has to increase or demand has to decrease. I don't think Jace will be axed in any formats, and it's unlikely to be reprinted in a form that would allow Russian foils to be reprinted, so it's probably going to stay this high or go up.

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Originally posted by Tha Gunslinga:
OK, so let's play a game. It's called Supply and Demand. It's the way prices are set.

See, the Supply of Russian foil Jaces is extremely low. Who cares how many were printed? The point is, you can't find them because the folks who have them don't want to get rid of them.

Now, let's look at Demand. The Demand is really high because it's generally accepted as the pimpest version of Jace, other than some hypothetical and unlikely miscut version.

So when you have a card where the Supply is extremely low, and the Demand is extremely high, you have a situation where people can charge pretty much whatever they want for that particular item. That's what has happened here. Is it a bubble? Yes, but it may never pop. In order for the bubble to pop, either supply has to increase or demand has to decrease. I don't think Jace will be axed in any formats, and it's unlikely to be reprinted in a form that would allow Russian foils to be reprinted, so it's probably going to stay this high or go up.

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Originally posted by baldr7:
I actually somewhat disagree with you (this might be the first time though). I think a card like russian foil Jace is a classic example of inelasticity. there are just so few that demand is lightyears beyond supply, so even in the case where demand decreases (loss of jtms in legacy for example) demand will still be so much higher than supply that price will remain constant

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The supply is obviously fixed, so it's not inelastic (coefficient of elasticity <1), it's zero--i.e. fixed. Like with other ultra pimp "status" cards, I would imagine it to actually have positive price elasticity.

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Originally posted by baldr7:
I actually somewhat disagree with you (this might be the first time though). I think a card like russian foil Jace is a classic example of inelasticity. there are just so few that demand is lightyears beyond supply, so even in the case where demand decreases (loss of jtms in legacy for example) demand will still be so much higher than supply that price will remain constant

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I was oversimplifying a bit. I agree with what you're saying on these.

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Originally posted by James_Hetfield2:
Even if Magic "ended" tomorrow (no major tournament support and Wizards stopped making new sets), Russian Foil Jace is going to be worth a lot.

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Originally posted by Solidarity:
The supply is obviously fixed, so it's not inelastic (coefficient of elasticity <1), it's zero--i.e. fixed. Like with other ultra pimp "status" cards, I would imagine it to actually have positive price elasticity.

The problem is that this makes for a super sketchy investment. Sure, if you can swindle some hapless dupe and get one for on the cheap, you could easily flip it for a few hundred bucks. On the downside, you're essentially putting all your eggs in one shiny, cyrillic, stupidly expensive cardboard basket.

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Fixed supply is just another term for perfectly inelastic, so a price elasticity of supply of zero is just a category of inelasticity. I wouldn't call the price elasticity of supply fixed though, since I'm sure if I offered a million for a jace the quantity supplied would increase quite a bit. Quantity in existence is not the same as quantity supplied.

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Originally posted by hukstor:
Fixed supply is just another term for perfectly inelastic, so a price elasticity of supply of zero is just a category of inelasticity. I wouldn't call the price elasticity of supply fixed though, since I'm sure if I offered a million for a jace the quantity supplied would increase quite a bit. Quantity in existence is not the same as quantity supplied.

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Yes, I was specifying that the supply is perfectly inelastic.

In this case, past a certain market-clearing price, quantity in existence is about the same as quantity supplied. If you made a public offering of $5000 per, I bet you'd be able to buy pretty much every single one in the world... at which point I guarantee that quantity in existence and quantity supplied would be almost identical.

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Originally posted by sdematt:
It'll tank for sure, but less than other cards might, since even if there's no "CG" from CCG, there's always the first C.

-Matt

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Originally posted by Solidarity:
The supply is obviously fixed, so it's not inelastic (coefficient of elasticity <1), it's zero--i.e. fixed. Like with other ultra pimp "status" cards, I would imagine it to actually have positive price elasticity.

The problem is that this makes for a super sketchy investment. Sure, if you can swindle some hapless dupe and get one for on the cheap, you could easily flip it for a few hundred bucks. On the downside, you're essentially putting all your eggs in one shiny, cyrillic, stupidly expensive cardboard basket.

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Originally posted by Solidarity:
Yes, I was specifying that the supply is perfectly inelastic.

In this case, past a certain market-clearing price, quantity in existence is about the same as quantity supplied. If you made a public offering of $5000 per, I bet you'd be able to buy pretty much every single one in the world... at which point I guarantee that quantity in existence and quantity supplied would be almost identical.

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Originally posted by baldr7:
I categorically disagree. I've talked to a few people that own these cards. They don't need or particularly want extra money. The consensus "price" for a foil rus jace if it came on the market a few months ago was $900. Someone put an offer out that was 166% of market value and got no bites. Raising an offer until you get a bite only works if people want to sell. Try offering Bill Gates $1 mil for some prized childhood possession. He would never take that because the money is inconsequential compared to the value of the possession. For the scant few people who own these jaces, moeny is not an issue. i'm sure you'd get a few bites, but the vast majority of these would stay in the hands of collectors

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If you think many people would be that sentimentally attached to foil Russian JTMS...

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Originally posted by Solidarity:
If you think many people would be that sentimentally attached to foil Russian JTMS...

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Originally posted by XtReMeOnE3:
Have you ever tried finding one or purchasing one? People are attached to them mainly due to the difficulty of finding others that people have available for sale.

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I think people are reticent to sell because the pool of precedent sales is so small, no one wants to be the first to pull the trigger and get shafted.

Don't mistake human greed for sentiment. Even if there is a sentimental item, it's always possible to put a price on it.

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Originally posted by baldr7:
I categorically disagree. I've talked to a few people that own these cards. They don't need or particularly want extra money. The consensus "price" for a foil rus jace if it came on the market a few months ago was $900. Someone put an offer out that was 166% of market value and got no bites. Raising an offer until you get a bite only works if people want to sell. Try offering Bill Gates $1 mil for some prized childhood possession. He would never take that because the money is inconsequential compared to the value of the possession. For the scant few people who own these jaces, moeny is not an issue. i'm sure you'd get a few bites, but the vast majority of these would stay in the hands of collectors

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Originally posted by baldr7:
As opposed to one shiny yellow piece of metal? or one flexible green piece of paper. Come on now! We should all have realized long ago that value is what you make of it. I'm just surprised it is so difficult for some to wrap their heads around the idea that Russian foil jace and cards of ilk are so far beyond the traditional collectible card.

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That shiny yellow piece of metal is relatively impervious to corrosion, has excellent conductive properties, and is highly malleable, giving it multiple applications as a store of value, as jewelry, in electronics, heavy machinery and industry, chemistry and science, etc etc etc...

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Originally posted by Solidarity:
That shiny yellow piece of metal is relatively impervious to corrosion, has excellent conductive properties, and is highly malleable, giving it multiple applications as a store of value, as jewelry, in electronics, heavy machinery and industry, chemistry and science, etc etc etc...

What else can you do with a foil Russian JTMS? Strip it for the foil, I guess. There's the Buffet school of value, and then the Дрейк Небосклона school of "value."

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Dont even TRY to say gold's current value is based on its usefulness. ROFL.

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