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Author Topic:   Mr.C's brutally honest Magic 2012 Financial Review
coolio
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posted July 16, 2011 12:25 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for coolio Click Here to Email coolio Send a private message to coolio Click to send coolio an Instant MessageVisit coolio's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Mr.C:
Ask me in three months or so; I sold all of mine at $15 right after Jace got banned.

that seems truly poor, as the default best deck on everyone's lips was valakut.. and primeval actually saw brief spike the night the bannings got announced, irl and modo versions.. 15 was shorting pretty poorly. I mean, when jace got banned, you could snag jaces @ 40-45 bin, and ppl predicted it was gonna fall to the 30s.. guess what? didnt happen.


quote:

And yeah, I did look at M11. I saw what happened to Baneslayer, which was $50, and then it was $15. You're kidding yourself that all these cards will hold value after reprints. Are you going to tell me that Lavamancer is a strong buy at $8 too?

do you actually understand what happened to baneslayer, or rather, why it dipped and didnt come back up in value?
it wasnt because of the reprint. the reprint did kill a bit of its value, but not as drastically as the titans. baneslayer became irrelevant to other format defining and field altering cards, it wasnt as dominant as it was before m11. you dont understand the format, and thus, dont understand a lot of what you're trying to talk about.

quote:
At least I'm receiving criticism from people who know more or less what their talking about, which always makes for interesting discussions

what's there to discuss? your general call of bulk pricing in the eventual scheme of things of the majority of rares a five yr old could have made the same call, that's not genius, nor surprising, as for your predictions of primevals.. summer is the season of nats, and japan will lead the way. 7 of the 4-0 standard decks from day 1 is valakut, if it performs well, i predict by noon monday, primeval will see a noticeable uptick on feebay.

©

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Mr.C
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posted July 16, 2011 01:00 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Mr.C Click Here to Email Mr.C Send a private message to Mr.C Click to send Mr.C an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Mr.C's Have/Want ListView Mr.C's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by coolio:
that seems truly poor, as the default best deck on everyone's lips was valakut.. and primeval actually saw brief spike the night the bannings got announced, irl and modo versions.. 15 was shorting pretty poorly. I mean, when jace got banned, you could snag jaces @ 40-45 bin, and ppl predicted it was gonna fall to the 30s.. guess what? didnt happen.


do you actually understand what happened to baneslayer, or rather, why it dipped and didnt come back up in value?
it wasnt because of the reprint. the reprint did kill a bit of its value, but not as drastically as the titans. baneslayer became irrelevant to other format defining and field altering cards, it wasnt as dominant as it was before m11. you dont understand the format, and thus, dont understand a lot of what you're trying to talk about.

what's there to discuss? your general call of bulk pricing in the eventual scheme of things of the majority of rares a five yr old could have made the same call, that's not genius, nor surprising, as for your predictions of primevals.. summer is the season of nats, and japan will lead the way. 7 of the 4-0 standard decks from day 1 is valakut, if it performs well, i predict by noon monday, primeval will see a noticeable uptick on feebay.

©


Actually, $15 was good. I am not a dealer, I barely play, and only collect and trade. Could I have gotten $20 out of it? Maybe, but probably not. Since I am not you, I feel $15 was very solid. I bet a ton of people right now wish they could get $15 on them.

I believe I mentioned in a thread Jaces would fall to $40 right after the banning. People saying they would fall to $30 or less were insane.

Baneslayer fell to $15, didn't it? And a lot of people said there was no way he'd be less than $30 or whatever. Valakut may continue being the best deck for a few months, and then when Zendikar rotates, it's anyone's guess. Mine is that if there is no Valakut in the format, there is no reason for it to be $15-$20.

The discussion is that there are a ton of self proclaimed "financial experts" out there that don't know balls about what they are talking about. I haven't seen any review calling out the set for what it is, i.e., a bunch of chaff. All I have read is that Solemn is going to be more than $5, Lavamancer is a strong buy @ $8, Primevals are a good deal at $15, wtf is this crap? I do agree, a five year old could say that the majority will be bulk. Then why are not the "financial writers" saying it?

And, for reference, from the second paragraph of my post:

quote:
Originally posted by Mr.C:
Lastly, I am not a pro player, nor a self proclaimed financial writer. I just happen to [think] I know my stuff.

Which translates to: I don't have a deep understanding of the formats nor do I proclaim to have deep financial knowledge. I, however, have made my fair share of change in Magic, which is better than most people.

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[Edited 1 times, lastly by Mr.C on July 16, 2011]

 
rats60
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posted July 16, 2011 01:30 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for rats60 Click Here to Email rats60 Send a private message to rats60 Click to send rats60 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View rats60's Have/Want ListView rats60's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by Mr.C:
Let's see, Frost Titan is currently sitting @ 13/set or so. Primeval is around 12 each, but due to Valakut. Fair enough, I didn't said that it would instantly become $5. Inferno Titan is going from 12/set to 15/set. Grave Titan, a bunch of auctions @ 20/set. Poor Sun Titan is 12-14/set.

What was Stoneforge Mystic the week it was released? Or Tarmogoyf? What you are telling people is to stay away from these cards because they have no chance of going back up. I'll ask you, what is going to replace them in decks? Right now it's Primeval everyone wants. After the next set, it may be a different one, while Primeval will be in demand for Extended season. Then you beat up on the Planeswalkers. They are not going to all crash, it just won't happen. If this set is as bad as you say it is, no one is going to open it, causing a shortage of cards, causing cards to be overpriced. You can't have it both ways, the cards all sink, so they're all going to crash. After all, WOG and BOP held their price for years, even though they were reprinted, because the sets they were in were lightly opened.

 
Bugger
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posted July 16, 2011 05:25 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Bugger Click Here to Email Bugger Send a private message to Bugger Click to send Bugger an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by rats60:
What was Stoneforge Mystic the week it was released? Or Tarmogoyf? What you are telling people is to stay away from these cards because they have no chance of going back up. I'll ask you, what is going to replace them in decks?

A better question would be, what is going to replace Valakut (not to mention Emrakul)? There are always good things at < 3cmc (like Buried Ruin, which synergizes better with Sun Titan than Primeval anyhow), freezing a permanent is always relevant, 4 power is always relevant, and divisible 3 damage is always relevant. Primeval Titan's usefulness is entirely dependent on the lands he can search for and the fatties he can ramp into.

But by all means, continue. I'd hate to interrupt your ****ing contest. Remember, making sure someone else feels bad for having opinions is the important part.

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stu55
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posted July 16, 2011 05:30 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for stu55 Click Here to Email stu55 Send a private message to stu55 Click to send stu55 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
This was brutal for sure, and I am sure not referring to the ton of the review by Mr.C
 
SageShadows
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posted July 16, 2011 05:35 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for SageShadows Click Here to Email SageShadows Send a private message to SageShadows Click to send SageShadows an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Bugger:
A better question would be, what is going to replace Valakut (not to mention Emrakul)? There are always good things at < 3cmc (like Buried Ruin, which synergizes better with Sun Titan than Primeval anyhow), freezing a permanent is always relevant, 4 power is always relevant, and divisible 3 damage is always relevant. Primeval Titan's usefulness is entirely dependent on the lands he can search for and the fatties he can ramp into.

But by all means, continue. I'd hate to interrupt your ****ing contest. Remember, making sure someone else feels bad for having opinions is the important part.


I wholeheartedly agree. Maybe he was wrong in some respects, but the dude's taken a beating.

 
Havoc Demon
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posted July 16, 2011 06:17 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Havoc Demon Click Here to Email Havoc Demon Send a private message to Havoc Demon Click to send Havoc Demon an Instant MessageVisit Havoc Demon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
It's funny how people get when they hear a dissenting opinion.

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Skwirlnutz
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posted July 16, 2011 06:44 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Skwirlnutz Click Here to Email Skwirlnutz Send a private message to Skwirlnutz Click to send Skwirlnutz an Instant MessageVisit Skwirlnutz's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Skwirlnutz's Trade Auction or SaleView Skwirlnutz's Trade Auction or Sale
quote:
Originally posted by Havoc Demon:
It's funny how people get when they hear a dissenting opinion.


Everyone knows MOTL's community is full of D-bags, That's why only a handful of people even use this site for communicating. It's just a trading website because of the people in this community take the game way to serious and way to far, They have nothing better to do apparently.

 
joz
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posted July 16, 2011 06:46 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for joz Click Here to Email joz Send a private message to joz Click to send joz an Instant MessageVisit joz's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Skwirlnutz:
Everyone knows MOTL's community is full of D-bags, That's why only a handful of people even use this site for communicating. It's just a trading website because of the people in this community take the game way to serious and way to far, They have nothing better to do apparently.

Isn't the word your looking for "troll" ?

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Skwirlnutz
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posted July 16, 2011 06:53 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Skwirlnutz Click Here to Email Skwirlnutz Send a private message to Skwirlnutz Click to send Skwirlnutz an Instant MessageVisit Skwirlnutz's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Skwirlnutz's Trade Auction or SaleView Skwirlnutz's Trade Auction or Sale
quote:
Originally posted by joz:
Isn't the word your looking for "troll" ?


Nobody does it like you.

 
JoshSherman
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posted July 16, 2011 07:13 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for JoshSherman Click Here to Email JoshSherman Send a private message to JoshSherman Click to send JoshSherman an Instant MessageVisit JoshSherman's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View JoshSherman's Trade Auction or SaleView JoshSherman's Trade Auction or Sale
I have a sneaky suspicion that Sun Titan will be the most relevant titan in October.

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joz
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posted July 16, 2011 07:20 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for joz Click Here to Email joz Send a private message to joz Click to send joz an Instant MessageVisit joz's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by JoshSherman:
I have a sneaky suspicion that Sun Titan will be the most relevant titan in October.



I have a prediction for inistrad.
Bonehoard might go up to a few bucks...or it might not.
Chandra's Pheonix might be found in a discard outlet + burn deck or it might not.
Nihil Spellbomb will be in alot of sideboards or it might not.
Surgical Extraction might go up a buck or two..or it might not.

but im not gona make any real guesses...

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Teferi Planeswalker
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posted July 16, 2011 08:21 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Teferi Planeswalker Click Here to Email Teferi Planeswalker Send a private message to Teferi Planeswalker Click to send Teferi Planeswalker an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Teferi Planeswalker's Have/Want ListView Teferi Planeswalker's Have/Want List
Valakut's showing at the SCG 5k has been pretty weak. None in the top 8 and 2 in the top 16.
 
MTDetermine
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posted July 16, 2011 09:06 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for MTDetermine Click Here to Email MTDetermine Send a private message to MTDetermine Click to send MTDetermine an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
C's review is good in that, it is bold, and is willing to take a firm position on cards' value. Based on the current cards in t2, what he says make sense most of the time.

But it is very likely he will be dead wrong on certain cards for he is unable to see what wotc will be printing in next few expansion. Stoneforge was not good until wotc starts printing 4 good equipment in t2. Vampire N was a $1 card until zenikar spews out a strong cast of vampires.

 
Sovarius
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posted July 16, 2011 10:22 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Sovarius Click Here to Email Sovarius Send a private message to Sovarius Click to send Sovarius an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Sovarius's Trade Auction or SaleView Sovarius's Trade Auction or Sale
I don't understand all this "herpderp i'll buy all your Primevals at $5".

It wasn't an offer or a statement of what they should be valued right now. They are above $10 now, no one's saying "I'll pre-emptively sell them for $5 even though i can get more". You can get them if and/or when they are $5 and stop being dumb in the mean time.

 
ryan2754
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posted July 17, 2011 01:08 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for ryan2754 Click Here to Email ryan2754 Send a private message to ryan2754 Click to send ryan2754 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View ryan2754's Have/Want ListView ryan2754's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by Skwirlnutz:
Everyone knows MOTL's community is full of D-bags, That's why only a handful of people even use this site for communicating. It's just a trading website because of the people in this community take the game way to serious and way to far, They have nothing better to do apparently.

+1. Give the guy some cred for giving us his opinion. Let him speak his piece. Just because it's different than ours doesn't mean he should get slaughtered for us. Mr. C., thanks for your report. I don't agree with someone of it, but I like to see what other thinks about a set.

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Souladvocate
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posted July 17, 2011 06:55 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Souladvocate Click Here to Email Souladvocate Send a private message to Souladvocate Click to send Souladvocate an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
Yay! Everyone pick up your M12 bulk now! lol. But seriously, thanks for the input. It'll be interesting to see how things go & if your predictions are accurate.
 
farsk8dutch
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posted July 17, 2011 08:17 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for farsk8dutch Click Here to Email farsk8dutch Send a private message to farsk8dutch Click to send farsk8dutch an Instant MessageVisit farsk8dutch's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View farsk8dutch's Have/Want ListView farsk8dutch's Have/Want List
As for a Review, I'd like to hear more about the potential (or not) for certain cards like this card may go well in so-n-so existing deck, or we might see a zombie or illusion theme with the new artifact lord type thing, and at an uncommon level stuff, more filer... There are a lot of commons that could have been mentioned that fit the criteria as well.

Also, I like the negative view point towards constructed play value and such as opposed to the review from the guy over at SCG where every other cards is: OMG this is a power house standard, OMG and this is a bomb limited, OMG EDH players are gonna love this... crap!

Price wise, in the end I believe that for a review to be effective and appreciated your view points have to balance out "price wise". As I was reading it seemed as though you gave up actually pricing the cards from a projective standpoint, only to then objectively conclude as -bulk, which in my opinion is fine but a review presented to an audience that supply a secondary market should reflect just that.

 
Philip papas
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posted July 17, 2011 10:37 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Philip papas Click Here to Email Philip papas Send a private message to Philip papas Click to send Philip papas an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
if you say everything is bulk then yeah you hit the bulk of the set good job... but when you say cards that are going to see play are bulk people should start to wonder..

"+1. Give the guy some cred for giving us his opinion. Let him speak his piece. Just because it's different than ours doesn't mean he should get slaughtered for us. Mr. C., thanks for your report. I don't agree with someone of it, but I like to see what other thinks about a set."

this is also true...

[Edited 1 times, lastly by Philip papas on July 17, 2011]

 
wakeupwithastory
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posted July 17, 2011 10:51 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for wakeupwithastory Send a private message to wakeupwithastory Click to send wakeupwithastory an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 

I agree with this information but can I say something?

A collectible is only worth what someone else is willing to pay.

Having said that, consider this:

Every time we take a dollar out of our pocket, we are voting.
Every purchase, WotC product or secondary market singles adds to our collective knowledge of what is good/working and what is bad/failing. WotC is winning. SCG is winning. We are not. This set, overall (imo), is bad.
A lot of thought went into making this set. Highly paid, very intelligent people are going out of there way to construct these sets to sell the highest volume of sealed product. The secondary market is coping with the fact that we are not as highly paid as WotC employees even though many of us are clearly much smarter.

Lets not buy any cases of this set. Buy only the singles you need. If it's a reprint buy the older version (those packs are already open, wotc won't make more money from us).

In the future, we should care less about the foil/foreign/pimpness of our cards and care more about the quality of our game play. M12 is proof we should all be employees at R&D but since that isn't going to happen. Why aren't all the cards in our sets shiny and full art again? Filler commons and janky rares? Mediocre mythics? Mythics at all?

I like playing against spikes or anyone with more desire to win then myself. I like playing the rule nazis. I like playing that guy that proxied 56/60 cards he couldn't afford for his Vintage.

In our heads, we have all the secrets of balanced card/set design. That which makes the game fun/rewarding/challenging is not that which makes the most dollars.

Lend your extra good cards to your neighbors so that their decks suck less. Give bad cards away so that bad players don't waste good money on bad packs.

Support the game/culture not the secondary markets price tags.

 
nderdog
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posted July 17, 2011 11:01 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for nderdog Click Here to Email nderdog Send a private message to nderdog Click to send nderdog an Instant MessageVisit nderdog's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View nderdog's Have/Want ListView nderdog's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by wakeupwithastory:
M12 is proof we should all be employees at R&D

Sorry, I guess my crystal ball isn't nearly as good as yours. I can't get mine to tell me how this set will interact with the next block that it was likely designed to work with.

Also, I'm pretty sure that there aren't more than about 5 MOTLers who I would consider capable of having anything to do with the development of Magic who wouldn't destroy the whole thing in short order because of their lack of overall vision of how things work and avoiding power creep and all of those important things.

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[Edited 1 times, lastly by nderdog on July 17, 2011]

wakeupwithastory
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posted July 17, 2011 11:19 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for wakeupwithastory Send a private message to wakeupwithastory Click to send wakeupwithastory an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by nderdog:
Sorry, I guess my crystal ball isn't nearly as good as yours. I can't get mine to tell me how this set will interact with the next block that it was likely designed to work with.

Also, I'm pretty sure that there aren't more than about 5 MOTLers who I would consider capable of having anything to do with the development of Magic who wouldn't destroy the whole thing in short order because of their lack of overall vision of how things work and avoiding power creep and all of those important things.


I would say this is exactly what they want us to think.
WotC says they are more smarterer then us.
That we need them and their expertise.
We should fear what would happen without them.
They have a plan for the future.

We can't have that secret information? It hurts us to know what is coming? Or we won't buy that box if we know those cards aren't as good as what comes out in a few months.

Be wary of anyone that pretends to have secret information about anything but won't tell you what it is. That applies to school teachers, government officials, church leaders. They want to keep secrets? From us? Why?

All true information should be available to everyone. Always. Freely.

R&D has a future league that plays with cards that aren't available to us. This is to test things. To check and balance things. What happened to the future future league though? Clearly they aren't thinking as far ahead as they want us to believe. There is more luck to this then they would have us believe. More off the hip/out of the box/ improvisation then geniuses parallel developing the same brilliant ideas and getting together to share.

Mindslaver was a card slated for Mirage, I remember reading a dailymtg arcana spotlight on it. They found a slip of paper MaRo had scribbled ideas on back then. This isn't evidence of them knowing what they are doing. Every set blazes new trails? Sure they make big changes but they are tightly controlled. So as to not be too big a change that ruins everything. They have a don't fix it if it is not broken policy and the primary thing they fix is their profit margin.

 
nderdog
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posted July 17, 2011 11:22 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for nderdog Click Here to Email nderdog Send a private message to nderdog Click to send nderdog an Instant MessageVisit nderdog's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View nderdog's Have/Want ListView nderdog's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by wakeupwithastory:
WotC says they are more smarterer then us.

'nuff said.

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Bugger
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posted July 17, 2011 11:25 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Bugger Click Here to Email Bugger Send a private message to Bugger Click to send Bugger an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by wakeupwithastory:
paranoid rambling

Holy hell dude, save conspiracy theories for stuff that actually matters, like the Kennedy assassination or something.

Also, as Nderdog pointed out already, WotC may not be smarter than all of MOTL's population, but they're sure as heck smarterer than you.

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wakeupwithastory
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posted July 17, 2011 11:44 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for wakeupwithastory Send a private message to wakeupwithastory Click to send wakeupwithastory an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
More smarterer was a joke. They are not more smarterer. They are liars.

Its not a theory. Profit is a conspiracy. Capitalism is a conspiracy. They with the money, keep it going. Intentionally. They think its a good idea. They give you a couple dollars and now you think its a good idea too. You don't deserve more than that bum, you don't work any harder or smarter, you just can't get over that.

They control the rate information is leaked. This builds suspense. We buy more cards if we are teased like this. If every women you met teased you in a similar fashion you'd buy a lot more drinks at bars, or shoes at malls.

Because you enjoy the game, you believe they are doing a good job. I also enjoy the game, I appreciate the work they do for us. They don't do it for us though. They do it to stay paid. The ones that love the game, would probably do it for free if that kind of charity supported their families. That gives us faith that our game is in the right hands.

This does really matter. If it didn't, you guys wouldn't attack me. You are resisting change. My ideas don't agree with the status quo.

You are judging me to say WotC is a lot smarter than I am.
It doesn't even make sense to assume that, you just want to believe they are more intelligent because they give you the cards you play with, but since I don't charge you for boosters of my information you resign that my information is worthless.

*EDIT* The topic is the financial review of M12 and you guys trolling/flaming me is really lame. My information is in regards to us spending too much money on bad cards and how we can help ourselves instead of relying on WotC to tell us what is worth our money.



[Edited 1 times, lastly by wakeupwithastory on July 17, 2011]

 

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