Author
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Topic: Theros + thoughtseize
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bottlecaps Member
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posted September 02, 2013 03:28 AM
  
actually 30000 usd profit per yr after tax would be pretty good for a part time job. but damn ebay fees are expensive.quote: Originally posted by baldr7: Not in profit necessarily (some do, others don't). But revenue-wise, certainly.
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mtglover Member
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posted September 02, 2013 06:59 AM
  
quote: Originally posted by Zeckk: Winky & Daner - You guys are both kinda missing the point in regards to it's price, namely the fact that the first-set print runs for the most recent blocks are MASSIVE. It's less an issue of how much play the card sees, and more an issue of how many people need to pick up a playset. The most recent example - Deathrite shaman. DRS arguably sees more multi-format play than any other rare printed in the last 5 years, and it's readily available for $13 on TCG. Yes, DRS peaked at around $20 for a solid month, but the sheer number of copies being opened nowadays means that a playset of Theros TS's are going to be, at a minimum, cheaper than DRS by the time the 2nd Theros set hits release. This, of course, is assuming that the land cycles in Theros are constructed playable, and we don't suffer from a weak-set disaster like gatecrash, which inflated Boros Reckoner way above it's playability...
Actually cards from RTR set are bad for comparison purpose because it is probably the most opened set in magic history and therefore there are more of those cards available. It is better use other sets for comparison like Innistrad.
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jbark Member
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posted September 02, 2013 07:59 AM
  
And when using innistrad you have snapcaster who is a rare at $20 and is multi format playable. TS will be $15-20 and hover.
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WinkyBlitzen Member
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posted September 02, 2013 09:11 AM
  
quote: Originally posted by jbark: And when using innistrad you have snapcaster who is a rare at $20 and is multi format playable. TS will be $15-20 and hover.
I had initially thought of Snapcaster in my last post, but he isn't really a great comp as it's barely playable in Legacy (1 of in Deathblade, but that's about it) whereas Seize is a 4 of in at least 4-5 decks, and even in Modern it's about even, with Seize as a 4 of in the 75 of Pod and Jund while Snapcaster sees play in some number in UWR Control and Twin (and the more blue versions of Shift, but it seems like the Primeval Titan versions are more popular these days).quote: Originally posted by mtglover: Actually cards from RTR set are bad for comparison purpose because it is probably the most opened set in magic history and therefore there are more of those cards available. It is better use other sets for comparison like Innistrad.
That has more to do with the growth of the game than anything in particular about RTR, so I'd anticipate similar or possibly even greater sales for Theros. If you mean comparing them to older cards, I absolutely agree, but as a direct comparison to Thoughtseize, I see Theros being opened just as much.
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mtglover Member
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posted September 02, 2013 09:57 AM
  
We'll see. I sincerely doubt that it was primarily due to the growth of the game but rather the quality of the cards in the set. I remembered our local store's turnout for m14 prerelease was at an all time low while while the RtR prerelease was at its highest. Also, I talked to several local store owners and they all stated that more people buy boxes of RtR than any other sets they ever had.
[Edited 1 times, lastly by mtglover on September 02, 2013]
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daner Member
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posted September 02, 2013 10:38 AM

quote: Originally posted by Zeckk: Winky & Daner - You guys are both kinda missing the point in regards to it's price, namely the fact that the first-set print runs for the most recent blocks are MASSIVE. It's less an issue of how much play the card sees, and more an issue of how many people need to pick up a playset. The most recent example - Deathrite shaman. DRS arguably sees more multi-format play than any other rare printed in the last 5 years, and it's readily available for $13 on TCG. Yes, DRS peaked at around $20 for a solid month, but the sheer number of copies being opened nowadays means that a playset of Theros TS's are going to be, at a minimum, cheaper than DRS by the time the 2nd Theros set hits release. This, of course, is assuming that the land cycles in Theros are constructed playable, and we don't suffer from a weak-set disaster like gatecrash, which inflated Boros Reckoner way above it's playability...
Then you must have missed my first post when I stated that I think Theros TS will be a $7-10 card come X-mas. I have ZERO faith that card will hold any value to it's current value. The only reason why I was giving examples towards play ability is that the card doesn't see nearly as much play as some people think....and when it does see play it's in SB's, trumped by better disruption sometimes, or in a deck that isn't tier 1. The people that already have them aren't gonna buy, and after the first few months those who need them will get them easily by drafting, trading, set redemption, etc etc....this set might not break records for sales(but it always could) yet we don't know whats left in it to be spoiled. Regardless this set will be opened a LOT....and this card will be readily available. It's not a card, after this massive re-print, that I see people stockpiling. You said it best Zeckk...right now DRS is like $13, one printing. I said the same thing, kinda, how you can pick up Hallowed Fountain for $7. So somewhere in the middle for TS at best? Possibly lower.
[Edited 1 times, lastly by daner on September 02, 2013]
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CGPhantom Member
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posted September 03, 2013 07:04 AM
  
OK, put the price of lorwyn TS back up to $60!!!!!http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=533408 And they say that Wizards doesn't care about the secondary market. This is a clear sign that they're looking out for the lorwyn TS owners  What's with the artwork on these reprints???
[Edited 1 times, lastly by CGPhantom on September 03, 2013]
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Demilio Member
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posted September 03, 2013 07:59 AM
  
quote: Originally posted by CGPhantom: OK, put the price of lorwyn TS back up to $60!!!!!http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=533408 And they say that Wizards doesn't care about the secondary market. This is a clear sign that they're looking out for the lorwyn TS owners  What's with the artwork on these reprints???
I think the new artwork is pretty damn nice.
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Wesjones 187 Member
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posted September 03, 2013 08:30 AM

The facial expression kinda ruins it, tha and his hands are like the size of shaq's. lol Usually cards prices are over inflated at the time of spoiler season, if thought seize is already down to $30 on the most overpriced online retailer then it has a lot of room to go.. Down.
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Zeckk Member
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posted September 03, 2013 03:35 PM
  
quote: Originally posted by Wesjones 187: The facial expression kinda ruins it, tha and his hands are like the size of shaq's. lol Usually cards prices are over inflated at the time of spoiler season, if thought seize is already down to $30 on the most overpriced online retailer then it has a lot of room to go.. Down.
It's just math. No rare since the inception of mythic rarity has been able to hold higher than $25 during it's standard run. The only exceptions have been snapcaster mage and SFM, and both were only able to maintain $25 for a very short period of time in which they were seeing ridiculous amounts of Top 8 play.
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stu55 Member
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posted September 05, 2013 12:17 PM
  
quote: Originally posted by Zeckk: The only exceptions have been snapcaster mage and SFM, and both were only able to maintain $25 for a very short period of time in which they were seeing ridiculous amounts of Top 8 play.
Think you figured it out....anywho, this thing is probably a $20 for a good long while
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walkerdog Member
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posted September 05, 2013 12:29 PM
  
quote: Originally posted by stu55: Think you figured it out....anywho, this thing is probably a $20 for a good long while
Thragtusk maintained 20+ for quite a while too. I think scavenging ooze is more playable than TS, and has only been in the teens. It is semi-comparable imo - promos + cmder is roughly analogous to Lorwyn printing, and Theros is more widely opened than M14 I am guessing. I think it will take a while (3+ months, probably into the 2nd set release), but TS goes down closer to $8-10. __________________ Originally posted by rats60: It's easy to run your month, but when it's time to back it up, no one's there.
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stu55 Member
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posted September 05, 2013 12:38 PM
  
quote: Originally posted by walkerdog: Thragtusk maintained 20+ for quite a while too. I think scavenging ooze is more playable than TS, and has only been in the teens. It is semi-comparable imo - promos + cmder is roughly analogous to Lorwyn printing, and Theros is more widely opened than M14 I am guessing. I think it will take a while (3+ months, probably into the 2nd set release), but TS goes down closer to $8-10.
You are just spewing wrong all over the forums today, if anything heading into the 2nd set release, it will start to go up in price because now less is being opened.
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Zeckk Member
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posted September 05, 2013 04:00 PM
  
quote: Originally posted by stu55: You are just spewing wrong all over the forums today, if anything heading into the 2nd set release, it will start to go up in price because now less is being opened.
Unfortunately, that's not the price trend that most rares take, especially since Theros will mirror RTR block in the sense that there's a rare land cycle that will make up the standard manabase. Theros will still be opened, redemptions will happen, and the large number of (seemingly) playable mythics & rares currently spoiled in Theros will actually keep the price down for quite a few of the rares. I really wish people would look at closest analog comparisons before they make speculations, or at least stop using such hyperbole when speculating. I don't see TS seeing as much standard play as snapcaster or scavenging ooze, therefore I don't see TS holding above $20 for longer than a month or two. There's simply going to be too many of them, and personally I will be trading them away as soon as I open them. Anyone that wants to value a theros TS as roughly equal to 2 deathrite shamans after release needs to readjust their evaluation structure.
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WinkyBlitzen Member
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posted September 05, 2013 05:04 PM
  
quote: Originally posted by Zeckk: redemptions will happen
Maybe, but don't forget, redemptions are $25 now vs. $5 for every pre-Gatecrash set, which will likely make a difference in the amount of redemptions that occur.
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JayC Member
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posted September 05, 2013 05:11 PM

quote: Originally posted by stu55: Really?? You actually want to start something? As for topic, this should be a $15-$25 short-term, meta depending, long term $35-$40 assuming no other mass reprint
Oooh ya let's START SOMETHING! YA LETS DO THIS! YA! Cyber fight go go go! Don't get butthurt, this conversation was made for you.
[Edited 1 times, lastly by JayC on September 05, 2013]
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Zeckk Member
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posted September 05, 2013 06:20 PM
  
quote: Originally posted by WinkyBlitzen: Maybe, but don't forget, redemptions are $25 now vs. $5 for every pre-Gatecrash set, which will likely make a difference in the amount of redemptions that occur.
That would be....more valid of a point where the value of the set is confined to only a few cards. However, it again comes back to having a playable land cycle, on top of what looks like a playable god cycle, playable mythic dragon, multiple playable rares, etc. The cost of the redemption is mitigated through multiple desirable cards. And again, redemptions DO drop the price of rares and uncommons quite hard. Thrag held his price through redemptions largely because most people didn't want to draft M13, online or paper. Don't get me wrong, inflation alone will someday dictate that a rare card will maintain a higher price floor than $20, but thoughtseize reprints will not be that card, sorry.
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Vegas10 Member
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posted September 09, 2013 07:27 PM
  
quote: Originally posted by daner: Then you must have missed my first post when I stated that I think Theros TS will be a $7-10 card come X-mas.I have ZERO faith that card will hold any value to it's current value. The only reason why I was giving examples towards play ability is that the card doesn't see nearly as much play as some people think....and when it does see play it's in SB's, trumped by better disruption sometimes, or in a deck that isn't tier 1. The people that already have them aren't gonna buy, and after the first few months those who need them will get them easily by drafting, trading, set redemption, etc etc....this set might not break records for sales(but it always could) yet we don't know whats left in it to be spoiled. Regardless this set will be opened a LOT....and this card will be readily available. It's not a card, after this massive re-print, that I see people stockpiling. You said it best Zeckk...right now DRS is like $13, one printing. I said the same thing, kinda, how you can pick up Hallowed Fountain for $7. So somewhere in the middle for TS at best? Possibly lower.
I think you are severly underestimating how good thoughtseize will be in standard again, it was nuts last time and will be again.
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Zeckk Member
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posted September 10, 2013 12:18 AM
  
quote: Originally posted by Vegas10: I think you are severly underestimating how good thoughtseize will be in standard again, it was nuts last time and will be again.
It was nuts because fae put a clock on you while countering/seizing the first 3 cards you planned on playing. Until I see something resembling a decent aggro list that can truly make use of TS the way fae did, I remain skeptical. It's also important to note that TS was $20 pre-mythic era. Even accounting for inflation, we are talking about a rare that is getting ANOTHER mass reprint. Simple math, people.
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daner Member
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posted September 10, 2013 04:48 AM

quote: Originally posted by Vegas10: I think you are severly underestimating how good thoughtseize will be in standard again, it was nuts last time and will be again.
As stated above by Zeckk...there was this thing called Fae.dec. It's not in standard anymore. quote: Originally posted by WinkyBlitzen: Maybe, but don't forget, redemptions are $25 now vs. $5 for every pre-Gatecrash set, which will likely make a difference in the amount of redemptions that occur.
That's irrel bc the prices for the sets that are $25 to redeem have made the cards less valuable online, so now to make a set the cards are less. It's pretty much evened itself out market wise.
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WinkyBlitzen Member
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posted September 10, 2013 06:10 AM
  
quote: Originally posted by daner: As stated above by Zeckk...there was this thing called Fae.dec. It's not in standard anymore.That's irrel bc the prices for the sets that are $25 to redeem have made the cards less valuable online, so now to make a set the cards are less. It's pretty much evened itself out market wise.
Fair enough. I didn't really notice that since I play online, but don't redeem sets, and most of the good cards in those sets are the same price (Voice, Blood Baron, Obzedat, etc.), so the decrease must be felt with the smaller stuff.http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Events.aspx?x=mtgevent/pthol08/top8decks Wasn't JUST Faeries playing it.
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