I promise,I'm not a wolf

~MM

__________________
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Here's Bugger's post history:

003. Feb-13 05:13 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
007. Feb-13 07:04 PM: joking w/revenger - (ref: nobody)
064. Feb-16 05:27 AM: Re: GLE#60 - joking around - (ref: GLE)
070. Feb-17 05:00 AM: joking around - (ref: nobody)
077. Feb-17 06:16 PM: GLE's post is bold -- what's the reason? - (ref: GLE, Liq)
087. Feb-18 04:55 AM: Suspect list. GLE, PD, AGM, rev. No vote yet. - (ref: everybody)
104. Feb-18 12:31 PM: defending self - (ref: Bernk, hil, MW, PD, rev)
115. Feb-18 03:44 PM: Re: PGB#115 - explains Bug has been watching since WW3 - (ref: PGB)
121. Feb-19 05:05 AM: No longer suspects AGM, votes revenger for post #85. - (ref: AGM, Bernk, rev)
185. Feb-21 01:26 PM: Agrees with GLE. PD trying to lynch SPs? WTH? - (ref: AGM, Bernk, GLE, kood, Liq, PD)
195. Feb-21 08:49 PM: Lynch PD this round and if a cit, lynch GLE next? - (ref: GLE, PD)
231. Feb-23 04:46 AM: Not as suspicious of PD as PGB is, but voting PD (R3). - (ref: GLE, Liq, PD, PGB)
236. Feb-23 08:41 AM: Sorry for posting suspicions during night phase. - (ref: Bernk, PD)
243. Feb-23 06:17 PM: Votes PD. - (ref: PD)
255. Feb-24 04:46 AM: Re: Bernek#253 - Bernek thinks everything Bugger does is suspicious. - (ref: Bernk)
260. Feb-24 09:59 AM: Re: Bernek#257 - you are contradicting yourself. - (ref: Bernk, PGB)
267. Feb-24 11:53 AM: Re: Bernek#261 - enumerates contradictions. - (ref: Bernk, BernB, Bug, Cait, GLE, Liq, PD, PGB)
268. Feb-24 12:03 PM: Re: Bernek#265 - conviction = opinion? WTH? - (ref: Bernk)
271. Feb-24 12:34 PM: Re: PD#270 - Bugger gets it. - (ref: Bernk, GLE, PD)
283. Feb-25 01:53 PM: Doesn't suspect PGB. Less sure of suspicion of PD, but still voting PD. Notes PD's call for the input of other players and thinks it suspicious. - (ref: PD, PGB)
290. Feb-25 05:22 PM: Suspects revenger and BernieB. Still voting PD. - (ref: Bernk, BernB, Jaz, PD, rev)
319. Feb-27 04:52 AM: Updated suspicions. Beginning to suspect PD less? Hmph. Suspects now kood, BernieB, and PD. - (ref: BernB, GLE, Jaz, kood, MW, OB, PD, PGB)
323. Feb-27 12:13 PM: Re: PD#320 - was gauging PD, but still suspects kood, votes kood - (ref: kood, PD, PGB)
338. Feb-28 02:21 PM: Bernek's theory is weak. Vote Kood. - (ref: Bernk, Jaz, kood, PD, rev)
351. Mar-01 01:08 PM: *Dies* Good luck wolves. - (ref: nobody)

And I guess we need Obie's too now...

018. Feb-13 09:33 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
059. Feb-15 08:11 PM: Re: PD#58 - joking around - (ref: PD)
112. Feb-18 02:57 PM: hilikuS's suspicion of bugger is misplaced, PD's assessment of GLE's post seems accurate, not declaring at this time - (ref: Bug, GLE, hil, PD)
125. Feb-19 07:24 AM: Going away until midday Saturday. Voting MW. - (ref: MW)
207. Feb-22 11:23 AM: will try to post on the PD/GLE situation later on today - (ref: GLE, PD)
215. Feb-22 05:41 PM: Would vote elsewhere but GLE/PD thing needs to be resolved. Votes GLE. - (ref: GLE, PD)
264. Feb-24 11:18 AM: Thought GLE was a wolf too. Thinks either Bernek or PGB is a wolf. Also suspects Bugger because hilikuS accused him R1. - (ref: Bernk, Bug, GLE, hil, PD, PGB)
291. Feb-25 05:33 PM: Having trouble posting. Voted Bugger. - (ref: Bug, PGB)
299. Feb-25 08:33 PM: Suggests lynching PD to prove his innocence. - (ref: kood, PD)
336. Feb-28 02:05 PM: Votes bugger. - (ref: Bug)
344. Mar-01 10:41 AM: Re: MM#343 - no, I voted BUGGER! - (ref: Bug)
347. Mar-01 11:07 AM: Re: MM#343 - I definitely voted for bugger. - (ref: Bug)
349. Mar-01 11:27 AM: Re: MM#348 - I voted for Bugger. Screenshot of vote. - (ref: Bug, OB)

And here are the voting records:

code:

---

PLAYER           R01  R02  R03  R04  R05  GRP  STA
===============  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===
Caitiri          AGM  GLE  PGB  koo  ---   1    A
Jazaray          AGM  B77  PGB  B77  ---   1    A
BernieB          B77  GLE  koo  koo  ---   2    A
revenger         B77  ---  koo  koo  ---   2    A
Bernek77         Bug  PD   PGB  Bug  ---   3    A
koodkkslis       MW   GLE  PGB  Bug  ---   4    A
PlasteredDragon  MW   GLE  Bug  Bug  ---   4    A
Thanos           MW   GLE  rev  Bug  ---   4    A
Our_Benefactors  MW   GLE  Bug  Bug        C    E
Bugger           rev  PD   PD   koo        W    L
ectomanic        MW   ---  B77             C    E
puregoblinboy47  MW   PD   PD              C    L
hilikuS          Bug  PD                   C    E
GottaLoveElves   PD   PD                   C    L
AlmasterGM       B77                       S    E
MasterWolf       Bug                       C    L
Liq                                        C    E

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
Our_Benefactors was enjoying his day of showing the GM up ( ) , but this day was unlike any other day that's for sure.
The screams were heard throughout the village. The next morning everyone awoke to Our_Benefactors rotting corpse.

I promise,I'm not a wolf

~MM

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bernek77:
Jaz I would like to know where and how I fit the wolf profile. I have made 2 different attempts to go after Bugger and both times you have stuck up for him. Why is that? Can you please explain this to me?

Every time I have tried to dissect the pile you want to come after me. Did I stumble across something? It's well known fact that it is hard for me to get people to go in my direction. But, it has been well placed on here that Bugger is way more suspicious than me.

I changed my play up. Finally have had almost a full game to try and do it. This makes you suspicious of me. That fits a wolf profile? If at any point you can say I made you think in my last post then there is doubt casted in your mind. Correct?

---

I've already explained, many times, why I thought you were a wolf and it had nothing to do with your changing your style. Go back and read my posts about you, I'm tired of repeating it over and over again.

Like I said, your last post was the best post that I'd seen from you this game, and you actually almost had me changing my mind and voting bugger. You should post like that a LOT more often. Then I decided to stick to my guns and what I thought. So, I was wrong. It happens.

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
[Votes are due by ... ?

---

Glad you asked

Villager's your votes are due Tuesday Night! 9e-6motl time

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 3!]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jazaray:
...So, I was wrong. It happens.

---

However, you have no idea if you were wrong or not this time, because the guy you voted for didn't get lynched.

I had to drive all over the state today, so I am pretty beat. But I am pleased we finally bagged a wolf. Now we have two more lynches. To find another... and if we can squeak out an angel save, 3 more lynches.

Bernek definitely deserves some credit for the Bugger kill--but the possibility remains it was a sacrifice play, so we need to keep that in mind.

But currently I am more suspicious of kood. I figure it's largely his fault that the wolves offed OB, and I very nearly voted for him last round because of his exceptionally poor play. I think there's definitely a possibility that kood's vote for bugger was a sac play--and I think it more likely than a Bernek/Bugger sac play.

These ideas are not fully formed in my head right now, but I wanted to get them out there before I finish thinking them through so that others could consider them. I've got to go back and look at Bugger's suspicions and votes now, but I think something useful will come of that. But it's late and I'm beat, time enough for that tomorrow.

But buck up, cits, we got one!

I am hesitant on declaring my vote, as by reading nderdogs posts on mafia (which I find very helpful), it just gives the wolfs more information and help. I can, however, explain my vote after MM declares them to anyone. 2 wolfs to go, we did bag ourselves a wolf, now to get the other 2 without getting lynched and/or eaten.

~Revenger

I know I am cit, but my suspicion is on everyone and certain to rise with each post.

__________________
Need a 3rd party trade? Contact me at this email address.

Aim: Revenger72 Let's chat now! Magic, FF, Star Wars! Anything!

PD I have stated that I think that you and GLE were two villagers that got caught up in a bad argument. However, in light of someone who thought that you were innocent you have to go and bring up the double bluff scenario. Are you just dying to be able to call that and see it happen. I voted for Bugger round 1 and stated that I wanted to stay with him. However, your and GLE's spat derailed me from doing that.

Jaz, You have gotten on my back about going after Bugger due to the kidding around. Quick to bring up Bernie and me. Was that just to get me away from the wolf Leader?

Currently I am voting Jaz. This isn't a retaliation vote here. Jaz has been trying to make a solid case for Bugger since I went after him during the first vote. Be my guest to go check it out.

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

---

Originally posted by revenger:
Voted submitted in.

I am hesitant on declaring my vote, as by reading nderdogs posts on mafia (which I find very helpful), it just gives the wolfs more information and help...

---

That said, nder's also maintained that suspicions *should* be discussed. After all you might have a great reason for placing your vote, and it might be something that nobody else noticed. Your post here boils down to "Hi! I voted. I suspect everyone for reasons I am not going to share." Which in turn boils down to "I have nothing to say, and I am saying it anyway."

Post when you have something to say. I'm not trying to be mean, but empty posts which say nothing are just going to make you look suspicious.

For my part I seem to still be tired this morning. I think I might be coming down with another cold. Gonna go over Bug's history now and post again. The ideas I floated last night were sketchy and they may fall apart when I evaluate them critically. I'll be back in a bit.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bernek77:
Jaz, You have gotten on my back about going after Bugger due to the kidding around. Quick to bring up Bernie and me. Was that just to get me away from the wolf Leader?

Currently I am voting Jaz. This isn't a retaliation vote here. Jaz has been trying to make a solid case for Bugger since I went after him during the first vote. Be my guest to go check it out.

---

Yes, please go and check it out. And you'll see that Bernek is wrong. I never stated that Bugger was NOT a wolf. I stated that I thought you were one. I "came down on you and BernieB" for your joking around, because you were stating that "joking around" in Bugger's case, meant he was a wolf. Why wouldn't that apply to you as well? You seem to think that YOUR arguments are valid and everyone else's aren't. It's not a great change from your previous posting style.

quote:

---

Originally posted by BernieB:
Jaz'z vote for Bernek might be an unwillingness to throw hew fellow wolf under the bus, but then again she has been suspicious of him all game and what are the chances of her being a wolf two games in a row?

---

This thought process is wrong. My chances of being a wolf two times in a row, are the same as being a wolf at all. It's always a 3/17 chance. I could be a wolf 10 times in 10 games and for the 11th game, my chances would STILL be 3/17. As many games as you've played Bernie, you really should know this already, and I really think you do, but I can't come up with why you'd post such a dumb statement...

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

He was trying to hard to get people to like him. As soon as I called him out on it the joking around stopped. He was begging and pleading for me to try to find another argument.

You were quick to try and put my theory out there as lame and weak. You were the one that brought up about BernieB(SUP Bernie)and me. Bernie and I probably go back and forth on here more than Thanos and me.

MM you have 3 deceased players still the active pool.

BernieB, Jaz has a 2 in 7 chance of being a wolf this game. That is almost 33% almost 1 third. Not too shabby. I know there are 8 players left But I am not a wolf so that's the reason I said 2 in 7. Same goes for you.
__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

I think there's definitely a possibility that kood's vote for bugger was a sac play

---

I had no choice but to change my vote to bugger! I was getting lynched!

I figured last round was evidence of my being a cit.

You honestly think bugger would start making a case against another wolf to put them both out there? I realize revenger and Bernie voted me in round 3, but in round 4 Bugger was the one who came out first and tried wagoning me. You think that would be a smart play for the wolves, cmon PD, you're better than that.

I really feel that there is 1 wolf in Pile A and then its 50/50 which pile the other wolf is in.

Pile A:

Bernie - He is my #1 suspect right now. I don't really have any concrete evidence but his posts don't sit well with me.

Revenger - I am not sold on his "I've declared" posts. For all we know he could be sitting back watching the piles form and deciding his vote then.

Caitiri - Doesn't post much, I think its about time to get more involved.

Jaz - Has my least suspicion in this pile. Acknowledged she was wrong about Bernek.

Wolf suspicion in Pile A: Bernie then Revenger/Caitiri

Pile B:

Kood - I know I am not a wolf.

Bernek - Has my least suspicion here. Started the wagon Bugger and was the driving force behind it. I feel really strongly the Bernek is a cit.

Thanos - I have Thanos marked as the last vote in the bugger pile because he did not declare. If he IS a wolf I think jumping into the Bugger pile last would not happen. He would see the votes going to Me v Bugger and knowing I am a cit he would have to jump in the pile for me.

Thanos could have declared earlier tho, and just not checked in on the game. Leaving him stuck there not noticing my last minute switch.

PD - PD still doesn't sit well with me. He did vote for Bugger last round, which makes him less suspicious but he declared his vote for Bugger early. He may not have expected the pile to build like it did but he was stuck there due to his declaration.

Wolf suspicion in Pile B: PD then Thanos.

I feel like its time for the silent players to start getting more active. Caitiri has made a few posts here and there but has stayed largely on the quiet side. Thanos has had little to no effect on this game. SPEAK UP!

Overall:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bernek77:
Apparently I was Correct about him being a werewolf, and if I am not Correct to say that it was his joking around that led me to believe him to be suspicious. I think my argument against Bugger was solid.

---

As I've noted to hilikuS in the past, even a broken clock is right twice a day. Early game banter is never going to impress me much as an argument for wolfhood. And that he stopped when hilikuS (not you, hilikuS) called him on it? Duh, so would a cit.

Your argument about him being a wolf based on the R2 piles was also full of holes. You pointed out there MUST be 2 wolves in the GLE pile, and 1 in the PD pile, and since you were in the PD pile with Bugger, and you were not a wolf, then Bugger must be.

1. On you not being a wolf: um, says you. That's not very compelling to anyone who isn't Bernek.

2. On 1 wolf in R2 PD pile: While the possibility remains that there was one wolf in the R2 PD pile, it is not the only possibility. There could have been TWO wolves, or there could have been NONE. Clearly we can see now there wasn't NONE, so one or two are still on the table as possibilities.

You made a number of other errors in that argument--you said Jaz defended Bugger (she didn't), you said if Bugger wasn't a wolf the crowd could lynch you next and then move on (when the game would have been over after two more lynches), you said that if you and Bugger weren't wolves, Jaz had to be one--completely ignoring revenger who was also not in the GLE pile. You also said the wolves did us a favor by unwittingly killing 2 of the people in the R2 PD pile--look again... the only R2 PD voter killed by wolves was hilikuS. The others (GLE, PGB, and now Bugger) were all lynched by cits.

Yes Bernek, you were right, Bugger was a wolf. That doesn't mean your argument was sound. I could say I voted for Bugger because I secretly suspected he was a 12 year old girl--I'd be right about him being a wolf but my argument would be lousy.

@Kood: I have a post 90% written covering my suspicions, I'll post it soon. Yes, I *do* think you would have made a sacrifice play with Bugger. Spare me your patronizing comments. I defended you for two rounds and you turned on me the moment you had eliminated the stronger players. I'll provide the details soon.

code:

---

Voting/Suspicion History
============================================================
ROUND 1
 
20090218 04:55  BUG  001 SUSPECTS  AlmasterGM - strong anti-GLE, manipulative in post #078
20090218 04:55  BUG  002 SUSPECTS  GottaLoveElves - for suspecting PD
20090218 04:55  BUG  003 SUSPECTS  PlasteredDragon - seems a little off this round
20090218 04:55  BUG  004 SUSPECTS  revenger - a little suspicious
20090219 05:05  BUG  001 TRUSTS    AlmasterGM - post #120
20090219 05:05  BUG  002 VOTES     revenger - insincere post #085
20090219 19:50  BUG  001 FROMGROUP (?) TO (5)
 
ROUND 2
 
20090221 13:26  BUG  001 SUSPECTS  koodkkslis - GLE post #175
20090221 13:26  BUG  002 VOTES     PlasteredDragon - GLE post #175
 
ROUND 3
 
20090223 18:17  BUG  001 VOTES     PlasteredDragon - R2 conflict with GLE
20090225 13:53  BUG  001 TRUSTS    puregoblinboy47 - seems like a despairing cit
20090225 17:22  BUG  001 SUSPECTS  BernieB - for going after SPs
20090225 17:22  BUG  002 SUSPECTS  revenger - bizarre behavior
 
ROUND 4
 
20090227 04:52  BUG  001 SUSPECTS  BernieB - not stated
20090227 04:52  BUG  002 SUSPECTS  koodkkslis - not stated
20090227 04:52  BUG  003 SUSPECTS  PlasteredDragon - not stated
20090227 12:13  BUG  001 VOTES     koodkkslis - suspicious behavior
20090301 13:07  BUG  001 LYNCHED   (W)
============================================================

---

Of the people Bugger expressed suspicion/trust of most are still alive. This makes it look very much like Bugger was spreading suspicion as far as possible to play a low key wolf. But his play shows that he made double-bluffs. First he suspects AGM, then he trusts AGM in R1. Seems to me that he obviously expressed trust of AGM once he had decided that AGM would be the WW's midnight snack anyway, and his expression of trust would make him look more like a cit. In R3 he expressed trust of PGB -- a confirmed cit who was lynched by Bernek, Cait, Jaz and Kood -- presumably also to make him look like a cit.

But what I find more interesting is what he had to say (suspicion wise) about the players who are still alive:

code:

---

GRP  KOO  SUSP  VOTE  PLAYER
 1    A    0     0    Caitiri
 1    A    0     0    Jazaray
 2    A    2     0    BernieB
 2    A    2     1    revenger
 3    B    0     0    Bernek77
 4    B    2     1    koodkkslis
 4    B    4     2    PlasteredDragon
 4    B    0     0    Thanos

---

The GRP column are the R1 piles that GLE accused me of having an agenda over (since I was trying to get folks to declare so that we would have good R1 piles to look at in the late game.) Now it is the late game, and the R1 piles have shrunk more than any later game pile will have. I think they may be yet useful.

The KOO column shows the pile names that koodkkslis suggested last night (I've taken the liberty of including kood in the appropriate pile.) SUSP shows the number of rounds Bugger said "I suspect X" and VOTE shows the number of rounds Bugger voted for X.

Out of the 4 rounds Bugger suspected BernieB (R3/R4), revenger (R1/R3), and Kood (R2/R4) twice each. He's suspected PD four times (R1/R2/R3/R4) -- basically the whole game. He voted for revenger once (R1), Kood once (R4), and PD twice (R2/R3).

Now it's certainly possible that some of these suspicions are double-bluffs, and in every double-bluff scenario there is certainly risk. If he suspects a wolf, there's always the possibility that someone will take him up on the suspicion and he'll end up getting his fellow wolf hanged. That could be his plan all along, but I imagine that it is something he probably would have wanted to avoid if he could... after all, why push the game to 6 or 7 rounds if you can end it in 5?

But if he did bluff with the intention of sacrificing another wolf, it seems to me that would coalesce in the later rounds rather than in the earlier rounds--in the early rounds he doesn't know how the game is going to go. As more players disappear he gets a better feel for what will happen next and that's when he is more likely to make the sac play decision. An early sac play is only likely to happen if everybody suspects one of your wolves out of the gate or if you have a "Randon007 event"--a wolf that completely blows his or her cover early.

Bugger's "suspicion" of me has been pretty constant throughout this game, and he voted for me R2 and R3. Given the fact that I have had to fight paranoid players with positively dreadful arguments for the last 3 rounds, if this was a double-bluff between two wolves, it's an incredibly dangerous one to make.

His more recent focus has been on BernieB and kood. He did vote for revenger R1 and suspect him again R3. If he was double-bluffing for a sac play these seem more likely targets, with kood seeming most likely. If that's the case that R4 tiebreaker would have been pretty funny to him. WW versus WW, pleading their cases to the citizenry.

I mentioned earlier that I thought Kood got OB killed. By pointing out that OB seemed to be following me around (votewise), if kood is a cit, he unwittingly pointed it out to the wolves as well. The angel is still hiding, and what better place to hide than to not post much and vote in line with a very vocal player round after round? I think the wolves saw this "shadowing" as evidence that OB might be the angel (since as we can see now, OB was not a wolf). If Kood's a cit, he basically gave them that as a freebie. But I think it more likely he is a wolf, and it occurred to him OB might be the angel, but he chose to use it to try to get me killed. Having voted for GLE and PGB, and having gotten them both killed, I think I was Kood's next objective, and I fully expect I'll be on his suspicion list yet again this time around--a bid to waste yet another round.

But then, there are also 4 living players which, although Bugger has mentioned them, he has never expressed suspicion of or voted for: Bernek, Cait, Jaz, Thanos. There has GOT to be at least one wolf in that group I figure and possibly even two if kood is a cit.

Assuming Bernek is right, Jaz is a good possibility. She's never voted Bugger or suspected Bugger except in R4 where he made her suspect list (but only if Bernek was not a wolf). But assuming Bernek is right is typically a big pill to swallow. Bernek has a habit of jumping to conclusions or reading too much into the thinnest tissue of evidence. I mean all I had to do was suggest that it was a possibility that he and Bugger had been in on a sac play together and he immediately came out retaliatory--ooh PD were you just DYING to say that?

Which means when Bernek says "Jaz defended Bugger earlier, feel free to go back and look", you actually had better go back and look--because we are talking about Bernek's interpretation of events here... rather than the events as they actually transpired. Looking at my suspicion history reports I see NO LINES that say "JAZ TRUSTS Bugger". Which means she never said "I do not suspect Bugger" or "I think Bugger isn't a wolf". While it's possible someone may have made a really bad argument about Bugger (hilikuS springs to mind) and Jaz might have pointed out the argument was really bad, that doesn't mean she is defending Bugger--only Bernek would take it that way. So, since he invited us to go back and look, let's go back and look. Here is the list of posts that Jaz made where she referred to Bugger:

244. Feb-23 06:28 PM: Requests PD list all posts by Bugger, Bernek, PD, & GLE. - (ref: Bernk, Bug, GLE, Jaz, PD)
252. Feb-24 12:15 AM: To Bernek: you are joking around like Bugger, why is this not suspicious? To BernieB: why those three people? - (ref: Bernk, BernB, Bug, Jaz)
329. Feb-27 09:24 PM: Jaz's Bernek theory. - (ref: Bernk, Bug, GLE, Jaz, kood, PD)
340. Feb-28 07:48 PM: affirms bernek vote - (ref: Bernk, Bug, Jaz)
358. Mar-01 05:46 PM: Re: Bernek#346 - I was wrong, it happens. - (ref: Bernk, Bug, Jaz)

I've looked very carefully at these and while I can see Jaz is comparing and contrasting Bernek and Bugger, I never see her defend Bugger. Not once. I *do* see her saying Bernek is more suspicious than Bugger, which isn't a defense of Bugger so much as it is an indictment of Bernek. Either Bernek is misleading us here, or just fooling himself because anybody who suspects him is automatically a wolf in his estimation.

However given the apparent agenda of the wolves to get the cits to lynch strong players (since eating them risks angel saves) while hunting the seer/angel at night (AGM, hilikuS*, ecto, OB) there is a definite distinction between Jaz and Bernek. One of them is spraying suspicion on a strong player, and one of them is not. Of the two of them Jaz is therefore less suspicious than Bernek, since trying to get Bernek lynched would be apparently inconsistent with the wolves' game. (Cue Bernek's accusatory PD is a wolf post in 5, 4, 3, ...)

*BTW, I think the hilikuS kill was not necessarily hunting an angel. I think that might have been an attempt by the wolves to make me look suspicious.

Thanos and Cait are less suspicious to me simply because they are less suspicious to everybody. When you do this sort of analysis you have to consider whether the phenomenon you are focussing on is actually special, or is quite mundane. This is one reason why kood's argument about me never discussing OB, or OB never discussing me, was such a pathetic argument--since practically nobody talked about OB, and OB hardly mentioned anyone, the fact that I am in the group that didn't talk about OB and the group that OB didn't talk about is the expected case--it isn't special or indicative, just kood trying to turn nothing into something.

Bearing that in mind, noting that Bugger never suspected Thanos or Cait is less interesting, because, well up until a few minutes ago, NOBODY had suspected Thanos or Cait. Sure, one of them could be a wolf keeping a low profile, that's certainly a possibility, but I think in this case unlikely.

So if I was going to put the remaining living players in order of suspicion based on Bugger's stated suspicions and votes, it would be:

koodkkslis
bernek
BernieB
Jaz
Cait
revenger
Thanos
PlasteredDragon

Obviously I don't suspect myself, but I'll include myself in the list for completeness. Jaz and revenger are a little lower on the list than you might expect because of Bugger's last defense against Bernek's theories (#338) where he noted that there didn't need to be a wolf in the R2 PD pile. He argued that Jaz or revenger could have been a wolf, and the other two could be in the R2 GLE pile. Note how it *never* occurred to him to say that Bernek could be a wolf. Isn't that as obvious as the other two? Must be a wolf in the PD pile, and there are 2 players... Bernek and Bugger... why wouldn't Bugger just say "Bernek, YOU could be the wolf" instead of running off to other piles? This is why it struck me as possibly a sac play.

Definitely? No. Probably? Ehhh. Possibly? Yes. These are important distinctions to keep in mind.

Kood's last minute switch to Bugger "to save himself" is certainly plausible--but right now it looks more like a last minute agreement between two wolves. Bugger says to Kood, "you are the stronger wolf, and it looks like the crowd isn't taking the bait for PD this round, switch your vote to me. I'll leave my vote on you so you will look like a cit next round."

Definitely? No. Probably? Hmmm... more likely than the Bernek/Bugger scenario. Possibly? Yes.

I think it is worthwhile to keep our minds open and see what develops, but it seems to me right now that Kood is our best option. And if not Kood, maybe Bernek.

In the interest of keeping an open mind, I'm not ready to declare, I want to hear the thoughts of other players (well at least those who are willing to share them.)

Now let's look at what kood posted while I was working on the above.

quote:

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Originally posted by koodkkslis:
I had no choice but to change my vote to bugger! I was getting lynched!

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You've been in the biggest pile every single round of this game. You talk like a strongly independent player and yet you always seem to be hopping a wagon, and preferrably a wagon on the strongest player. I think your whole reason for voting Bugger in the end was because you and Bugger thought that what would happen in R4 was either you would get me lynched, or the cits would turn on you for trying to lynch me. So to that end Bugger voted for you as an insurance policy, and you voted for me. When your argument was shown to be utter crap, you didn't try to defend it, probably because you knew it would only look worse.

But the round didn't develop as you expected because of Bernek and Jaz. You probably expected me to vote for Bugger (AGAIN) but you didn't expect other people to vote for him as well.

I think later in the round you conferred with Bugger and it was decided that since *he* looked like he was going to get lynched (3 votes on him, 2 on you) you should switch to him under the excuse you were "saving yourself"--hoping that nobody would notice at the time you weren't in any apparent danger.

quote:

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Originally posted by koodkkslis:
I figured last round was evidence of my being a cit.

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quote:

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Originally posted by koodkkslis:
You honestly think bugger would start making a case against another wolf to put them both out there? I realize revenger and Bernie voted me in round 3, but in round 4 Bugger was the one who came out first and tried wagoning me. You think that would be a smart play for the wolves, cmon PD, you're better than that.

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quote:

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Originally posted by koodkkslis:
Bernie - He is my #1 suspect right now. I don't really have any concrete evidence but his posts don't sit well with me.

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quote:

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Originally posted by koodkkslis:
Revenger - I am not sold on his "I've declared" posts. For all we know he could be sitting back watching the piles form and deciding his vote then.

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quote:

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Originally posted by koodkkslis:
Bernek - Has my least suspicion here. Started the wagon Bugger and was the driving force behind it. I feel really strongly the Bernek is a cit.

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quote:

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Originally posted by koodkkslis:
PD - PD still doesn't sit well with me. He did vote for Bugger last round, which makes him less suspicious but he declared his vote for Bugger early. He may not have expected the pile to build like it did but he was stuck there due to his declaration.

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quote:

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Originally posted by koodkkslis:
I feel like its time for the silent players to start getting more active. Caitiri has made a few posts here and there but has stayed largely on the quiet side. Thanos has had little to no effect on this game. SPEAK UP!

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quote:

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Originally posted by koodkkslis:
Overall:

1) Bernie
2) PD
3) Revenger/Caitiri

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quote:

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Originally posted by BernieB:
Too cool, one down and two to go. I was just starting to suspect OB, too.
Jaz'z vote for Bernek might be an unwillingness to throw hew fellow wolf under the bus, but then again she has been suspicious of him all game and what are the chances of her being a wolf two games in a row?
Caitiri and Revenger are also suspicious, being in the Kood pile, but Revenger voted for him the round before as well.
I think there was one wolf in the Bugger pile, sacrifices must be made in order to make others lest suspicious. It is possible that we had piles on two shaggies.
As it stands now, my suspects are:
1. Caitiri
2. Kood
3. Jaz (easily traded out fot Thanos or Bernek)

Hey, 'sup, Bernek?

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Hey guys, sorry I've been absent. Between school and other activities I was busy most of the weekend. I only have a few minutes before I have to run to class, but I'll post more later. One thing that struck me reading this (besides the poor reasoning that your chance of being a wolf this game is somehow dependent on your role last game) is that Bernie uses "She was a wolf last game" to say that it makes Jaz less suspicious...and then goes on to attack revenger and me, both of who were also wolves last game. Picking and choosing to whom our arguments apply much?

Don't have time to respond to everyone else right now, but I'll have a little bit of time to check in tonight and definitely more time tomorrow.

-Caitiri

quote:

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Originally posted by Caitiri:
Hey guys, sorry I've been absent. Between school and other activities I was busy most of the weekend. I only have a few minutes before I have to run to class, but I'll post more later. One thing that struck me reading this (besides the poor reasoning that your chance of being a wolf this game is somehow dependent on your role last game) is that Bernie uses "She was a wolf last game" to say that it makes Jaz less suspicious...and then goes on to attack revenger and me, both of who were also wolves last game. Picking and choosing to whom our arguments apply much?

Don't have time to respond to everyone else right now, but I'll have a little bit of time to check in tonight and definitely more time tomorrow.

-Caitiri

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Yes he was attacking me in the beginning but not as much now. I am just on suspicion lists (I guess like everyone else eh?) and I am not really retaliating against anyone in particular, which I was doing.

My suspicion list has not changed.

~Revenger

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DO you take the chance now and say you know what why not?

Or did the wolves all vote GLE?

Or is Jaz a wolf and 2 voted GLE?

A bunch of all what if's had I died last round. The fact remains that I went after Bugger in the beginning. I couldn't get anyone on board with me. Then I was able to bring up the GLE-PD piles that the TWO of you created. I was able to bring up a more logical situation IMO against Bugger than he was able to against me.

Now the issue I have with Jaz is in that round it was a huge pivotal moment in this game. We have 2 large piles. Everyone voted for the 2 people except Jaz.

Now with that being said, here's a scenario for you:

We decide to pick apart a pile like which ended up happening by accident.

We find a wolf! YEAH! Great, now that means the other pile definitely has to have 2 wolves right?

But wait? Could there be a second wolf in that pile?

Or are the other 2 in the other pile?

Not once has it really been brought up with the possibility that there was one wolf in each pile and Jaz doesn't get called out into it and sneaks her way into the final 3 again.

I mean she has not brought too much attention towards herself, I am just not sold that she would come after me and vote me when there is a very big moment early in the game.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bernek77:
PD The difference last round would of been if you kill me you only have 1 round to find at least 1 wolf. If I would of been lynched last round there would of only been 1 player left in your voting pile. DO you take the chance now and say you know what why not. Or did the wolves all vote GLE. Or is Jaz a wolf and 2 voted GLE. A bunch of all what ifs had I died last round. The fact remains that I went after Bugger in the beginning. I couldn't get anyone on board with me. Then I was able to bring up the GLE-PD piles that the TWO of you created. I was able to bring up a more logical situation IMO against Bugger than he was able to against me...

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Bernek, please make sense. It's impossible to intrepret when you post shlock like this... WTH? You *might* have a good point buried in there. How would I tell?

Try this: figure out what the conclusion you are trying to make is, and then enumerate the points that get you to that conclusion. Try to avoid completely meaningless phrases like:

"DO you take the chance now and say you know what why not."

Also use appropriate punctuation. Is the above supposed to be one question, two questions, three questions, something else? Observe:

1: Do you take the chance now and say you know what, why not?

2: Do you take the chance now and say you know what? Why not?

3: Do you take the chance now? And say you know what? Why not?

4: Do you take the chance now and say "You know what? Why not?"

Apart from jumping to conclusions all the time, a lot of what you write is (as Jaz has noted) garbled and hard to read. So read it back to yourself before you post. Anyplace you find yourself pausing when you read back, please insert a comma. If you are expressing a spoken phrase that you or someone else is saying put it in quotes. If it is a question, use a question mark. Punctuation isn't a convenience, it's necessary to convey what you are trying to say. You can leave it off if you are expressing something incredibly brief like:

"i dont think so"

But if you are writing more than one clause, you need punctuation, use it or nobody will understand you. And if nobody understands you, nobody will listen to you. And that's what I am trying to get at here. Half the time I can't tell if you are making a good argument or a bad one, and it's very easy to lose my patience and just say "the heck with this". I know you think I'm an ass for pointing out your grammar issues, but I'm not doing it to be mean, I'm trying to HELP.

1. PD The difference last round would of been if you kill me you only have 1 round to find at least 1 wolf.

Says you. You are again taking it as given that you are not a wolf. You might not be, the only ones who know for sure are the wolves.

2. If I would of been lynched last round there would of only been 1 player left in your voting pile.

If you would HAVE been lynched last round, yes there would HAVE been only 1 player left in the R2 PD pile, and it would be Bugger. And I would probably be trying to lynch him this round. What is your point? I didn't try to lynch you last round, so... what? I don't even know what you are responding to with this statement.

3. DO you take the chance now and say you know what why not.

Unintelligible. Rewrite in English.

4. Or did the wolves all vote GLE.

Is this a question? Obviously the answer is "no". Bugger voted for me in R2. Why are you asking this?

5. Or is Jaz a wolf and 2 voted GLE.

Is this a question? How about this one:

"Or is revenger a wolf and 2 voted GLE?"

That's a third time you've ignored this possibility. It makes it look like you are fixated on Jaz and ignoring other possibilities.

6. A bunch of all what ifs had I died last round.

"what ifs had I"? Are you trying to say:

"These are a bunch of what-ifs you would be stuck with had I died last round."

If that is what you are trying to say, my response is, "so what?" I never said you should die last round, did I? I didn't vote for you, did I? When did I say it would have been better if you died in R4?

7. The fact remains that I went after Bugger in the beginning.

I never said you didn't. So... is there a point here?

Yes, you suspected Bugger R1, you wagoned after hilikuS expressed suspicion, and voted after hilikuS voted:

code:

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20090217 21:44  HIL  001 SUSPECTS  Bugger - joking around in bugger post #070
20090218 00:40  B77  001 SUSPECTS  Bugger - joking around in bugger post #070
20090218 13:37  HIL  001 VOTES     Bugger - trying too hard to be friendly in post #070
20090219 15:48  B77  001 VOTES     Bugger - trying too hard to be friendly in post #070

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8. I couldn't get anyone on board with me.

You weren't driving the wagon. It's more accurate to say, hilikuS only got you on board with him, and he couldn't get anybody ELSE aboard. I suspected Bugger too at that time (and said so), but not as much as I suspected other players. As I recall your refusal to declare had me suspecting you more than him. If you had declared your vote and made a good argument then, maybe I would have voted Bugger R1. As it was you waited until a few hours before the lynch to declare, and in the meantime MW (by your example possibly) also engaged in some very weird voting behavior and I ended up voting for him.

9. Then I was able to bring up the GLE-PD piles that the TWO of you created.

TWO of who? Me and GLE? We didn't create those piles, everybody else did. Bernek, you, me, and all the players need to take responsibility for our own actions. If you for example, thought GLE's case for me was strong, and you voted for me, then it's YOUR fault when I get lynched and revealed as a cit. GLE didn't MAKE you cast that vote, you made up your own mind. I've said it before, if you are going to blame someone for leading you, blame yourself for allowing yourself to be led.

GLE's argument against me was bad. Mine against him was solid. The cits felt the need to choose between a star player with a bad argument, or a mediocre player with a better argument. You could have all ignored it and focused on other players but you didn't. That is not GLE's fault, and it is not my fault. GLE and I both thought we saw a player that would make a particularly dangerous wolf and we went all out against each other. It's unfortunate, but it happened.

Anyway, yes, neither here nor there... I was present when you brought up the R2 GLE/PD piles.

10. I was able to bring up a more logical situation IMO against Bugger than he was able to against me.

Please define "situation" as you are using it in this sentence. Do you mean "argument" or "case"? Are you trying to say that you built a stronger case against Bugger than he built against you?

That's true... he didn't build a case against you at all--that was why I thought it might be a sac play. He just said that your argument had holes in it and pointed some of them out. He never pointed out the most obvious argument "Bernek could be the wolf in the R2 PD pile". The argument you made against him was (1) there was probably at least one wolf in the R2 PD pile and (2) you weren't a wolf so he must be one. It's not a strong argument (and I already said why), but it's definitely better than the one he made against you, which was no argument at all.

But you were right about Bugger being a wolf, and with him gone we are definitely better off. I just am not convinced it wasn't a sac play as previously explained.

I understand the second half of your post even less, and I don't want to venture a guess as to what you are trying to say because I am certain I will get it wrong. Can you explain it?

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

I think I was Kood's next objective, and I fully expect I'll be on his suspicion list yet again this time around.

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Damn right you are. There are two confirmed cits who were gunning for you. Nobody else here suspects you to be a wolf but I sure am not going to let you slide under the rug. I still firmly believe you have to by lynched before the game is over.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:


Originally posted by koodkkslis:
I had no choice but to change my vote to bugger! I was getting lynched!

No you weren't based on declared votes Bugger had 3 votes, you had 2, I had 1, and Bernek had 1. You had no way of knowing that revenger and Cait would declare for you.

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Well revenger did vote for me last round...I had not idea where cait would declare but I was pretty sure revenger was voting me, and ultimately that is the reason why I switched. I'd bet hes voting for me again this round.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

When your argument was shown to be utter crap, you didn't try to defend it, probably because you knew it would only look worse.

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My argument did fall apart and that happens. You said it yourself, we are wrong more times than we are right. I should have defended it, but I knew that I made a grave oversight with the fact that nobody was talking about OB. I made the conscious decision to let that one go, because as you said yourself, it would look worse.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

I think your whole reason for voting Bugger in the end was because you and Bugger thought that what would happen in R4 was either you would get me lynched, or the cits would turn on you for trying to lynch me.

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Bugger thought he was going down when he turned the light on me. For him to immediately switch the attention to another wolf would be a very risky, and IMO dumb move.

Look at this:

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:

An updated (and more honest) suspicion list would be:
1. Koodkkslis
2. Plastereddragon
3. BernieB
4. Our_Benefactors- but only if kood turns out a cit.

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We know OB is a cit. So what I see here is Bugger trying to wagon on me to get my lynched. If he is successful and it is a revealed that I am a cit he goes...OH! must be OB! He is already setting up his next wagon (another cit).

Now, Bugger is a rather intelligent fellow, he wouldn't put 0 wolves on his suspicion list. I would say there is at least one wolf between Bernie and PD (note my top 2 suspects).

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

Originally posted by koodkkslis:
Bernie - He is my #1 suspect right now. I don't really have any concrete evidence but his posts don't sit well with me.

Yeah he voted for you two rounds in a row. He MUST be a wolf. I think Bernie is possibly a wolf--but only if you aren't one.

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Actually I am only using the fact that he is in Pile B, and by consequence he voted for me LAST round. I am not considering the round before.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

Originally posted by koodkkslis:
Revenger - I am not sold on his "I've declared" posts. For all we know he could be sitting back watching the piles form and deciding his vote then.

Must have been real annoying not knowing whether or not how the sac play would turn out, huh?

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I just disagree with saying "I VOTED!" its like those stickers you see people wearing on election day. Does that sticker verify you voted? Absolutely not.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

Originally posted by koodkkslis:
Bernek - Has my least suspicion here. Started the wagon Bugger and was the driving force behind it. I feel really strongly the Bernek is a cit.

Really strongly, huh? Hmm.

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I guess I deserve that, its a little off topic here, but take your shots. Fair enough.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

I declared my suspicion of Bugger in round 1, remember? And again in round 2. And again in rounds 3 and 4. And I voted for him in rounds 3 and 4. If it's a double-bluff it's a pretty damn longlived one.

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It sure would be a long-lived one very risky, but the reward would be great. You get down into the final 3-4 and you can say "Look! I've suspected wolves all along!" Well, I respect you as a player and I think you are fully capable of constructing something like this. I am fully entertaining the possibility of you engineering this.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

Yeah, speak up silent players... Kood can't plan his strategy if you are quiet... and it's making it hard for him to figure out who the angel is.

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Says the guy who tried to get Thanos banned for being silent...I am surprised you haven't made the call to silent players yet.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

Overall... the definitive list of people who've voted for kood. Maybe they are ALL wolves.

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I purposely slowed down posted mid game to see what attention I'd draw to myself.

The answer is none.

Why?

Usually this kind of gameplay would make me a lightning rod to PD, how come this hasn't happened this game?

PD= Suspect number 1 (I think GLE was on to something perhaps)

Bernek has almost completely avoided even mentioning my name for most of the game, totally against his normal gameplay.

Petty?

Maybe, but is he really helping us with his random nonsense posts?

Bernek = suspect number 2

quote:

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Originally posted by Caitiri:
One thing that struck me reading this (besides the poor reasoning that your chance of being a wolf this game is somehow dependent on your role last game) is that Bernie uses "She was a wolf last game" to say that it makes Jaz less suspicious...and then goes on to attack revenger and me, both of who were also wolves last game. Picking and choosing to whom our arguments apply much?

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Now in regards to Bugger and the first round. I never said that I started the wagon. Hilikus beat me to it. But, had he not I most certainly would have.

I never once said I suspected Kood and Revenger. Please if you are gonna put words in my mouth, go find that post for me. My EXACT words were "I find these posts suspicious!" Point blank that is it.

The one thing I don't get is how you have me high on your suspect list and I am one of the few left in this game that don't think you are a wolf.

Yes you and GLE are responsible for the interaction and result of the second round lynch. Had the bickering back and forth not happened, GLE might possibly still be alive. Well alive a lot longer than he was.

That was the only round I voted for you as I had to try and save GLE. I felt him to be a villager and he is more of an asset than you.

This is not the first time you have been caught bickering back and forth with someone in regards to their status and they turned out to be a villager.

You talk about how I was one who spoke of conviction and that I should try to change my game. And you know what I did just that. Maybe you should try and do the same. Because your play is and has been starting to be detrimental to the villager side. Not with the helpful information you provide with bringing back what people post and using your wolfweight system. By the way I don't get how you come up with the point system. But, that is neither here nor there.

I am referring to when you suspect someone or have an issue with how someone is playing you come at them full force. A lot stronger than other players in this game. Just mu opinion.

Thanos, in regards to you. I have said time and time again when you addressed it during the GLE vote. I am done with getting into banters back and forth with you. If I find you to be suspicious I will bring up your name. I have said time and time again; that of which your ignorance is present, that I am trying to change my play and play a different game. You find that to be suspicious? I have been trying to do it for 3 games now. I just happened to live longer this game to try it out.

If anything you are playing normal now at this point of the game. If anything you were more suspicious the first few rounds with posting more. And now it seems like you are trying to get attention drawn to you with not revealing your last vote. Also, pointing out that PD hasn't come after you and that neither have I.

Again, I don't find you to be a wolf right now and I have no reason to squabble with you.

I am voting Jazaray this round. I have already declared a vote for her. I believe with her death we can take it down to the 2 piles of the second round. One with only me left in it and the other with everyone else.

IMO I think she might have been a wolf seperating herself from the 2 piles. With this being said a wolf in each vote and her straying far away to get all the piles to get looked at.

It is brought up every game when we get down to a two pile vote, what pile do we go after. Well You have me being the only one left in the PD pile from that round, Jaz voting me that round, and six people left in the GLE vote.

Your right about one thing, I cannot prove I'm innocent but there are 3 people left in this game that know I am. Myself and the 2 remaining wolves.

Like I have stated voting Jaz off get's us down to 2 piles left yours and GLE's. Which should of only been the 2 piles to end that round with, I have a hunch that we might find our second with taking out Jaz. leaving the last wolf in the GLE pile. Again just my opinion, and a hunch.

Now if Jaz turns out not to be a wolf, then there will be 2 wolves in 6 in the GLE pile. Most likely I will have to be the wolves next kill as they wouldn't want to cut that pile any shorter.

They would have to keep that pile as large as possible.

Come on PD you say your a smart man this has to make sense to you. Everyone else this has to make sense to you. I would rather have this down to just one pile. 4 villagers to 2 wolves or 1 wolf, than to have 3 piles like we do.

Again the wolves would be plain out bad to leave me alive next round.

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