quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
BoT. A Bernie vote seems to be useless at this point, and I will admit BoT has made some suspicious plays.

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What suspicious plays? I never knew that deleting a damn post was such a crime or I never would have done it. Excuse me I've never came across that situation before.

__________________
Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil Laugh

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
What suspicious plays? I never knew that deleting a damn post was such a crime or I never would have done it. Excuse me I've never came across that situation before.

---

__________________
Originally posted by GLE:
And man... what happens when we get past 300 GDs? Will we need a second MOTL?

And then past 300 MOTLs... we'll need a new internet!

quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
You're right. Frankly, I just made that up as a lame justification and don't believe it at all. I actually still want to vote BernieB, but if I did I would probably end up taking a lot of crap over it. You just happen to be the easy place to be. Sorry.

---

Obv, but why bandwagon? Most of the votes are going my way, so why not vote for who you believe is a wolf even if you're not in the majority? It's not like you're voting to take heat away from yourself, since TMB is second in votes. I think you're just making it worse for yourself by going this way. Apparently hilikuS agrees with me.

__________________
Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil Laugh

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
Obv, but why bandwagon? Most of the votes are going my way, so why not vote for who you believe is a wolf even if you're not in the majority? It's not like you're voting to take heat away from yourself, since TMB is second in votes. I think you're just making it worse for yourself by going this way. Apparently hilikuS agrees with me.

---

If you read any of my posts, you would know that I never actually thought Bernie was a wolf. I just thought that if we didn't have anything to go on, he would be a good round one pick. Since there seem to clearly be other targets at this point, I have no choice but to let that one slide. This game is not unlike politics on capital hill - you only have so much political capital to spend, and if I ever want people to listen to my arguments, I have to be careful about which lynches I truly believe in and which ones I am only considering as side notes. At that point, I'm pretty much stuck choosing between you and TMB ... and I don't think you should vote for someone because they missed a vote. So I voted for you.

quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
You're right. Frankly, I just made that up as a lame justification and don't believe it at all. I actually still want to vote BernieB, but if I did I would probably end up taking a lot of crap over it. You just happen to be the easy place to be. Sorry.

---

WTF?!

Voting AGM.

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
You're right. Frankly, I just made that up as a lame justification and don't believe it at all. I actually still want to vote BernieB, but if I did I would probably end up taking a lot of crap over it. You just happen to be the easy place to be. Sorry.

---

I had voted Liq but then out of the 4 felt that BoT was the most sketchy, until you posted this.

quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
You're right. Frankly, I just made that up as a lame justification and don't believe it at all. I actually still want to vote BernieB, but if I did I would probably end up taking a lot of crap over it. You just happen to be the easy place to be. Sorry.

---

This, when added to my suspicions from before, is more than enough to make me change my vote.

Furthermore:

quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
As far as making it worse for myself goes, I don't really care. If I was a wolf and wanted to lie low, I would've just done so and gotten away with it like I did every other game. People can feel free to make arguments against me and I will respond. My response to hilikuS? 1) If I was a wolf, why would I want to lynch Bernie? Wolves love Bernie because the cits never know if he's innocent or guilty. He hides them later in the game. 2) Why would I make such a big fanfare round one? While some players know the wolves can lurk both in the shadows and broad daylight, there are plenty of people who just automatically target the most obvious suspects. Hiding is "proven," so to speak, to be the better strategy, especially if you are known for being quiet. Why change a winning strategy?

---

This is a highly fallacious argument, as it can be invalidated by considering the obvious- if you were a wolf, it'd be the easiest thing in the world to change up your posting style. ANd to top that off, for this argument to be true, everyone would have to clam up when they were wolves. Speaking of big fanfares: Liq threw BoT under the bus last game. Aggressiveness is not a valid foil for accusations because you can't disprove (or prove far less probable) the counterargument: that a wolf would ramp up his/her activity level to bluff the populace. As I mentioned already, you're a highly competent player- I wouldn't put this past you.

{VOTING: AlmasterGM (wtf post,poor defense)}
{SUMMARY: Announcing vote change and why}

I can understand moving a vote to keep piles small, but this is too weird to ignore.

{VOTING: AGM (post P#127)}
{SUMMARY: switching vote to AGM based on his recent posts.}

No votes declared from: fwybwed, GottaLoveElves

{SUMMARY: running tally... no votes from FWY or GLE.}

Players ~ Their vote

Bugger ~ AlmasterGM (1)
Liq ~ AlmasterGM (2)
AlmasterGM ~ B_o_T (1)
GLE ~ AlmasterGM (3)
PD ~ TMB (1)
ryan ~ B_o_T (2)
T_o_L ~ TMB (3)
Jazaray ~ TMB (4)
BernieB ~ AlmasterGM (4)
fwybwed ~ BernieB (1)
B_o_T ~ BernieB (2)
MasterWolf ~ B_o_T (3)
Xplicit ~ AlmasterGM (5)
JackSpade ~ B_o_T (4)
TheMidnightBomber ~ B_o_T (5)
Hilikus ~ AlmasterGM (6)

AlmasterGM, a villager, has been lynched.
Special role type people, get me your names ASAP.

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 9!][My Brute!]

{SUMMARY: Didn't get my vote in before MM posted results.}

{SUMMARY: Surprised there has been no movement on the thread.}

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Wow, apparently they roll up the sidewalks after six PM here in Pogglesworth. Well if the players with special roles haven't gotten their PM's in yet, we probably won't be starting round 2 until tomorrow night. :-(

{SUMMARY: Surprised there has been no movement on the thread.}

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What he said...

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 9!][My Brute!]

quote:

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Originally posted by BernieB:
Maybe Monty gave them food poisoning???

---

Villagers your votes are due Tuesday Night!

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 9!][My Brute!]

P1 - (R1-AGM): Bernie, GLE, hilikuS
P2 - (R1-BB): BOT
P3 - (R1-BOT): Jack, MW, ryan
P4 - (R1-RANDOM): Jaz (JSP), Liq (JAZ), TMB (novote), XPR (Liq)
P5 - (R1-TMB): Bugger, PD, TOL

And then the tiebreaker piles:

1 - (R1-AGM): BernieB, Bugger, GLE, hilikuS, Liq, XPR
2 - (R1-BB): BOT
3 - (R1-BOT): JSP, MW, ryan, TMB
4 - (R1-TMB): Jaz, PD, TOL

I'll be focusing mostly on the tiebreaker piles so I'll be using those 4 group numbers to refer to those groups of players. But there will probably come some value from the original piles too, so we shouldn't forget them. (Already removed AGM & fwy from the piles, since they're dead.)

BOT's in a pile by himself, but I don't think the wolves would expose one of their own so quickly. Right now my eye is on pile 1. The wolves knew AGM was a cit, seems likely a wolf or two might have hopped into that pile. Bernie was the target of both fwy and AGM (yes, yes, Maybe-That's-What-They-Want-You-To-Think (tm)) and that makes me suspect him a little. GLE's been quiet but still voting--by now I would have expected more posts from him. Bugger seems in character, and Liq is not in character (he's being uncooperative which is a good sign, but he's also switched his vote, which is not). XPR's a little out of character but so far I am interpreting this as a deliberate attempt to improve his playstyle. hilikuS seems pretty levelheaded and thoughtful, though he has let a few jokes go by without jumping on the jokesters... that's interesting.

So far nothing else really jumps out at me from the piles--it's early yet, anyway. Anything jump out at you guys?

{SUMMARY: lists piles, early R2 suspicions}
{SUSPECT: Bernie (target of fwy)}
{SUSPECT: Liq (OOC vote switch, still alive)}

For me it has been weird that GLE isn't posting very much. From my experience with GLE he definitely posted much more than he has been, and has been pretty helpful as far as what he has to say. He usually posts a lot, and it's usually good info. So far I haven't seen hardly anything from him. This brings a previous game to mind right away.

I really can't remember which it was, but GLE turned to out to be a wolf. He was very much talkative, and tried to sway a lot of people. I remember picking him out for something (probably a joke ), and pushing as was my thought process at the time. After the game, I remember GLE himself admitting that he didn't do a great job as a wolf, and we ended up winning that game in 3 straight rounds. I'm not trying to pat myself on the back for picking him out here, but it seems to me that the silence could be directly related to this previous game. In order to prevent him from slipping up like in the old game, he's being deliberately more quiet than usual. Now, I imagine he'll speak up more once people begin to notice (as PD and I have seemed to), but in that first round, as I said, hardly anything for good ole' GLE. He could have just been busy, but this seems to make sense to me.

It seems like a fairly viable idea in my mind, so I'll declare my vote for GLE right now. Things can always change, and hopefully this prompts him to add some stuff into the convo. Should help us whether he's a cit or not, so I'm looking forward to his insight.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Weird. The tracker tells me there was another post on this thread... by BOT, but I don't see it. BoT did you delete it?

{SUMMARY: wondering about the missing mom joke}

---

I followed AGM's lead on BernieB because I had a hunch that AGM was the seer and had scryed him and decided to call him out. Apparently I was wrong on that account. The preceding quote from PD had me thinking today. Because of his summary, I take it that his tracker recorded my deleted post. However, during the uproar over said deleted post he did nothing to defend me, even though he read the post and knew of its inconsequential nature. Perhaps he didn't think of it, or didn't want to because associated with a suspicious player, or perhaps we was a wolf that wanted me lynched.

{Summary: Curious as to PD's response}

__________________
Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil Laugh

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Voted BOT again. Seems more likely he's the wolf than someone who didnt even show up.

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What did you mean by this?

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
Whatever. Guess I learned never to delete a post.

edit: I voted BernieB.

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If you didn't notice, that's not why people voted for you.

quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
You're right. Frankly, I just made that up as a lame justification and don't believe it at all. I actually still want to vote BernieB, but if I did I would probably end up taking a lot of crap over it. You just happen to be the easy place to be. Sorry.

---

When I read this initially, I thought "Did someone really just make a post like this?" I mean, who (town or cit) would say this? Seems like he is begging for a lynch.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:

This is a highly fallacious argument, as it can be invalidated by considering the obvious- if you were a wolf, it'd be the easiest thing in the world to change up your posting style. ANd to top that off, for this argument to be true, everyone would have to clam up when they were wolves. Speaking of big fanfares: Liq threw BoT under the bus last game. Aggressiveness is not a valid foil for accusations because you can't disprove (or prove far less probable) the counterargument: that a wolf would ramp up his/her activity level to bluff the populace. As I mentioned already, you're a highly competent player- I wouldn't put this past you.

{VOTING: AlmasterGM (wtf post,poor defense)}
{SUMMARY: Announcing vote change and why}

---

I agree with Bugger's assessment of AlmasterGM's defense.
Well, here are the votes from the first round and the tiebreaker.

Player - Votes
AGM (cit) - BernieB, BoT
BernieB - AGM (cit), AGM (cit)
BoT - BernieB, BernieB
Bugger - TMB (cit), AGM (cit)
Fwy - BernieB, BernieB
GLE - AGM (cit), AGM (cit)
hilikuS - AGM (cit), AGM (cit)
Jack - BoT, BoT
Jaz - Jack, TMB (cit)
Liq - Jaz, AGM (cit)
MasterWolf - BoT, BoT
PD - TMB, TMB
ryan - BoT, BoT
ToL - TMB, TMB
TMB - N/A, BoT
XPR - Liq, AGM (cit)

At first, when looking at it, I was looking to see if any of the individuals who voted for one of four players in the tie in R1 (BernieB/AGM/BoT/TMB), and then switched their votes away from that specific player in the tiebreaker. Looking at it, it looks as though AGM and Bugger are the only individuals to do so. Bugger did so after AGM's "WTF post," where he previous stuck with his TMB vote. He votes late on the TMB wagon in R1, right after PD. I don't know what to make of this, but I though it was interesting.
For example (hypothetical), TMB is a safe vote for Bugger - thinking more than likely TMB won't be voted off with the recent AGM/Bernie exchange. Once the tiebreaker rolls around, he sticks with TMB to stay consistent, but then gets on the AGM bandwagon after the "WTF post." Now, this could be a wolf on wolf vote in the early round to later "clear" themselves, which I wouldn't put it past Bugger to do this. Again this is completely hypothetical, but something I have seen others do in the past and thought it is something I should bring up.

Outside of this, I really see nothing descernable from the vote analysis, aside from obvious bandwagoning (already mentioned BoT, but Bugger joins TMB wagon in R1 right after PD).

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
I followed AGM's lead on BernieB because I had a hunch that AGM was the seer and had scryed him and decided to call him out. Apparently I was wrong on that account. The preceding quote from PD had me thinking today. Because of his summary, I take it that his tracker recorded my deleted post. However, during the uproar over said deleted post he did nothing to defend me, even though he read the post and knew of its inconsequential nature. Perhaps he didn't think of it, or didn't want to because associated with a suspicious player, or perhaps we was a wolf that wanted me lynched.

{Summary: Curious as to PD's response}

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I am under the understanding that the Seer gets no results N0. Thus making this entire argument a moot point. Am I right or do the seers get a N0 read now?

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
I'd correct you if you were disposed to accepting correction. I make big posts with multiple quotes in them all the time. It's not a Liq move--for it to be a Liq move I would have had to have quoted a bunch of posts and then put NOTHING of my own thoughts or commentary in there.

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Yes, you make big posts with multiple quotes in them but what I was refering to was the size and detail within the post is quite different from the standard PD post.

Yeah, lets judge that on 3 or so Werewolf games I did that and not the 20 or so Mafia games to which I'm refering to. Mafia Style 1.2 is quickly becoming Mafia style 1.3. I'd give it about 5 more games.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
It's in character for Liq to be deliberately unhelpful

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I consider it being unpersuasive. I'm getting to the nuts and bolts of my mind and displaying it. No tricks. No frills. Just pure thought.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
As for what I don't agree with? "use your gut. right or wrong." Jesus no--use your brain. If you are trying to digest your dinner, use your gut. If you are trying to digest the game, use your brain. Your gut is stupid. So is mine.

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I disagree.

quote:

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Currently Voting :
 
• BernieB

---

quote:

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Suspicion Level :
 

• High :
   
  {52%} : Bernie
  {52%} : Bugger
  {52%} : PD
  {51%} : Jaz
  {51%} : BoT
   
  
• Mid :
   
  {50%} : GLE
  {50%} : Hilikus
  {50%} : Xpl
  {50%} : ryan
   
  
• Low :
   
  {49%} : ToL
  {49%} : TMB
  {49%} : MasterWolf
  {49%} : Jack

---

code:

---

ToT : Name : W1 : C1 : W2
---   ----   --   --   --
+03 : GLE  : +1   +1   +1
+03 : PD   : +1   +1   +1
+02 : BUG  : +0   +1   +1
+01 : BOT  : +1   -1   +1
+00 : XPR  : +0   +1   -1
+00 : RYAN : +1   -1   +0
-00 : BB   : -1   +1   +0
-01 : HILI : -1   +1   -1
-01 : TMB  : +0   -1   +0
-02 : TOL  : +0   -1   -1
-02 : JAZ  : -1   -1   +0
-02 : MW   : -1   -1   +0
-03 : JACK : -1   -1   -1
      ----
-02 : FWYB : +0   -1   -1
+00 : AGM  : +1   -1
-01 : MNTY : -1

---

{VOTING: PD (Early R2 Suspicions)}
{SUSPECT: Goaswerfraiejen (Oddest Name Ever!)}
{TRUST: Ml490 (Good Old Marky Mark)}
{SUMMARY: Will likely never play WoW}

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008