Votes due Monday Night. 8 PM MOTL.

Liq - When are votes due?

What can we learn. A) - Zak was not being coached. B) - XPR, although more silent this game, was not a bad guy. What reasons do the mafia have for removing XPR right now?

We are left with these 10 players still in game, 2 of which are still mafia:

AlmasterGM
Bernek77
Bugger
fwybwed
Jazaray
MeddlingMage
Montague
OGB
Thanos
thror

quote:

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Originally posted by thror:
What can we learn. A) - Zak was not being coached. B) - XPR, although more silent this game, was not a bad guy. What reasons do the mafia have for removing XPR right now?

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To implicate AGM, but that's the easy answer.

quote:

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Originally posted by thror:
We need to hit a mafia within the next 2 rounds to have a shot at winning. I am now suspicious of everyone, and will have to read through at least the last 6 pages to formulate a real suspicion list.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Thror:

I'm going to defend Zak a little bit here on 2 points.
1) Up to this point, he has offered insightful, meaningful posts. He is certainly not the weakest player in this game. His ego might have gone a little far, but don't pretend that he isn't intelligent.

2) I think I understand why MW was NK'd this round. I agree with Zak, however, that having a confirmed cit around can be useful to the mafia. Unless the CC is closing in on them, the mafia can let the CC live long enough to hopefully send the other cits down a wrong track or 2. CC's don't have any more insight than the rest of us, and are incorrect in their scumhunt more than not.[/b]

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then 18 mins later he posts this

quote:

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Originally posted by Thror:
And now that I realize i've completely forgotten to do anything useful, let me make another post.
I didn't like the LA3-Zakman replacement in R1 when LA3 nearly got lynched (as PD put it, if LA3 were a cit, why not just hang?). Zak going WFCmo on us is probably going to strip this round of anything extremely useful, other than a discussion about game theory and confirmed cits.

His other behavior (hiding plans, voting for MW, ommission from vote analysis) brings with it a high level of suspicion. To do it openly, however, is awkward as hell. I'm not sure if this is the rookie in Zak showing up, or sleep dep causing a big slipup. This coupled with my previous suspicion are enough to get my vote, though. At this time, voting Zakman86.

As an aside, I will not be around for tomorrow nights lynch and NK, as I will be @ FNM. I should have a chance to post early tomorrow though. [/b]

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this is a total turn around in between posts...

Explain... please

Round 2: Why would anybody not vote WCFmo?

Now AGM voted for fwy. Why is that AGM?
Bugger voted for me, but claims that he switched last minute. Has yet to give us proof.
Fwy voted Thanos. Why would you vote thanos instead of WCF fwy?
Thror vote for me also. Why did you not vote for WCF thror?

Round 3: IMO, and apparently in the cits, it was completely obvious that we should vote Zak.

Bernek and fwy both voted for AGM. Why guys?

I would just like some explanations to why you guys voted the way you did in these rounds. One of these guys will get my vote.

I later voted for AGM and his lack of insight and accusations.He seems to throw a name out and stick to it like glue...PD...jes wont let it go...and then apologizes...? Then he states he may be NK(Night Killed)even with a confirmed Citizen on board. I felt that that was pretty confident and BRAVE of him to step up...

The reason for this is my own, I KNOW I'M a CIT. so the wagons pretty much help me in that way. I think you should look at WHO VOTED for them....big pile to hide...

OR

you could be trying to lead the rest the cits into this direction to play the lower voters. Bernek and I...lynch us and the games is yours...hmmmm

My vote for AGM is based on what I stated. He has been a loose cannon and too defensive. He is conniving and cunning and very smart. IMO he is the most dangerous person left in this game. There is Idea what he is capable of pulling and certain plays this game is not beneath him. Of course this is just my opinion and would like to hear what others feel about this.

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

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Now AGM voted for fwy. Why is that AGM?

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I didn't really pay any attention to WCFmo at all until he started exploding all over the place, and which point he became obvscum. Prior to that incident, I thought fwy was mafia. It didn't seem like the wagon needed any assistance, so I never moved my vote.

I still think fwy is mafia. He lurked all D1 and D2, he jumped on the Gawain wagon with very little analysis, called a cop softclaim a "trick," and did some other things.

Then again, XplicitR showed all these tells as well and he was town.

Safe bet would be one or both has a reason because they are mafia.

There is no reason why either of them should not have voted for Zak, and don't care what excuse they use.

One or both figured to vote another way so they could say later on look I wasn't part of that pile.

quote:

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Originally posted by Thanos:
I suspect both Bernek and fwybwed, they seem to be skipping and jumping all over the place.

Safe bet would be one or both has a reason because they are mafia.

There is no reason why either of them should not have voted for Zak, and don't care what excuse they use.

One or both figured to vote another way so they could say later on look I wasn't part of that pile.

Voting fwybwed, suspect Bernek.

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As I predicted....

Fybwed - Lynched
NK
Bernek - Lynched
NK
then the cits will have to get one or its game...

Well, thats 2 votes my way. I know who the sheep are to follow so.

my suspicions are as follows

Thror: His positive post in regards to Zak then 18 minutes later pretty much bails on what he sed earlier...whats up with that. Its almost as if he forgot that he posted in regards to Zak before hand...

Bugger: His posts are very much pushy. Ill be mad if you guys vote another active player blah blah blah, I knew so and so was a cop.....Really I asked him how he knew and why he never opposed a vote on Gawain but he never responded...I never got the standard put down from him. lol. Why and HOW are you ALWAYS the one who KNOWS, lol

Monty: His posts are really trying to get a wagon going. "Let’s go ahead and state the obvious. The mafia are setting it up to look like you should lynch me. Xpr was pushing for me the entire game. Now he is dead. " this is more a convenience for you seems like it and before Zak you were ready to call it a game, ready to be replaced etc...and you didnt even claim cit hood. Oo

AGM: To claim he would be NK'd while a CC is still in the game to me was a tell. Do you think you are threat AGM. I do, to us the citizens.

I am a citizen of Tillimook. Born right and true.

quote:

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Originally posted by fwy:
Bugger: His posts are very much pushy. Ill be mad if you guys vote another active player blah blah blah, I knew so and so was a cop.....Really I asked him how he knew and why he never opposed a vote on Gawain but he never responded...I never got the standard put down from him. lol. Why and HOW are you ALWAYS the one who KNOWS, lol

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How many rounds do we have left, three? Bugger can die next round.

quote:

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Originally posted by fwy:
Thror: His positive post in regards to Zak then 18 minutes later pretty much bails on what he sed earlier...whats up with that. Its almost as if he forgot that he posted in regards to Zak before hand...

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If I were mafia, I would know that Zak was a cit before he was lynched. If an obvious 'Kill Zak' wagon was forming, why would I feel the need to defend him? I could have just attacked him like everyone else. I was suspicious of Zak from the very moment he took LA3's spot.

However, my first post (The Defense of Zak), was because I know him better than you guys do. I've chatted with him on IRC on numerous occasions, and I wanted to point out flaws I saw in the arguments against him. The first one was that 'He's too smart to be a noob, he must be coached, therefor -> mafia'. To quote myself - "he has offered insightful, meaningful posts. Don't pretend he isn't intelligent." Just because it's someones first game, doesn't mean they have to be an idiot. I also agreed that in some situations, having a confirmed cit around can be useful for the mafia.

These were not the only arguments for Lynching Zak that round, infact there were plenty of others. These other arguments are what pushed me to vote for Zak, many of which I did and still do attribute to his lack of actual experience (He was a cit, he wasn't being coached, and he made a few mistakes. It happens to everyone.) My second post points out MY reasons for voting Zak, fwyb did a very good job pointing them out, but again i'll quote myself - "His other behavior (hiding plans, voting for MW, ommission from [his own] vote analysis) brings with it a high level of suspicion."

we both voted for you in the last round and everyone else voted for a cit...with us not in that pile, we would be the obvious Mafia targets for a lynch mob. Call us out...2 Mafia left, 2 people voting off the wagon... TOOOO EASY!

And for Monty to start his game up now..like I sed "Conveinient"

quote:

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Originally posted by AGM:
How many rounds do we have left, three? Bugger can die next round.

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Umm what...cuz u say so!?!?!?

Edit: Ahhh AGM this is in regards to your post that bugger can die 2nd to last round.....

Example...

Fwybwed - Lynch
Cit Hit
Bugger - Lynch = 2nd to last round
Cit Hit
Final Lynch if wrong = GAME!!!

how do you know this....if it goes down like this Ill be AMAZED for real...WOW!

quote:

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Originally posted by fwy:
my suspicions are as follows
...
Bugger: His posts are very much pushy. Ill be mad if you guys vote another active player blah blah blah, I knew so and so was a cop.....Really I asked him how he knew and why he never opposed a vote on Gawain but he never responded...I never got the standard put down from him. lol. Why and HOW are you ALWAYS the one who KNOWS, lol

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OMG AGM what are you on....Are you trying to twist my words around...

read my EDIT!

You state:

- Leave bugger till the 2nd to last round

Then

- what 3 rounds left, Bugger can die next round...

guess its all going as planned for you huh!!??

my posting above was pure example and I stated that...

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
Example...

Fwybwed - Lynch
Cit Hit
Bugger - Lynch = 2nd to last round
Cit Hit
Final Lynch if wrong = GAME!!!

how do you know this....if it goes down like this Ill be AMAZED for real...WOW!

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no where did I say Bugger was a cit....this is very VERY Suspicious that you would try to twist it....

AGM and Monty top suspects

quote:

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Originally posted by Thanos:
I suspect both Bernek and fwybwed, they seem to be skipping and jumping all over the place.

Safe bet would be one or both has a reason because they are mafia.

There is no reason why either of them should not have voted for Zak, and don't care what excuse they use.

One or both figured to vote another way so they could say later on look I wasn't part of that pile.

Voting fwybwed, suspect Bernek.

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I voted for PD who I initially suspected, voted WCFmo and AGM. How am I skipping all over the place. I didn't think Zakman to be mafia. I couldn't see the mafia allowing that mistake to happen twice. Also, If u can read. I stated round 1 I did not believe LA3 to be mafia and if zakman was his replacement then that would make it so with him. I knew it was only a matter of time before you threw my name out there.

My reasons for AGM have been stated an there is where my vote is going.

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
How do you know Bugger is a cit? Didn't you JUST say you suspected him?

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Fwybwed has been talking about me?
Ugh, now I have to start reading his posts... If there's anything worth responding to I will address it.

At this time I would also advise the citizenry to push me off the island this round instead of later.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Fwybwed has been talking about me?
Ugh, now I have to start reading his posts... If there's anything worth responding to I will address it.

At this time I would also advise the citizenry to push me off the island this round instead of later.

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Double bluff!?!?

Why would Bugger want to be lynched this round?
Would his death really lead us to some answers?

I'm at work now (somehow the filter is now aloowing this site here ) and will post more when I get home tonight.

I am gonna read some posts and see where my vote lies from there.

~MM

__________________
I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion and 2007 Captain N award winner, and I approve this siggy!

quote:

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Bugger: His posts are very much pushy. Ill be mad if you guys vote another active player blah blah blah, I knew so and so was a cop.....Really I asked him how he knew and why he never opposed a vote on Gawain but he never responded...I never got the standard put down from him. lol. Why and HOW are you ALWAYS the one who KNOWS, lol

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A few observations about fwy's play (made stream of consciousness):
- In R3, he posts well after the WCFmo wagon is up and running, but does not change his vote (not suspicious) but, more importantly, does not discuss WCFmo at all. He doesn't say "yes that is scummy" nor "I think he might be a cit". Fwy is opinionated; why was no judgement passed? He certainly had the time to, he spent a whole post examining something much less consequential (Zakman answering a question directed at me).
- Even more interesting: when, next round, a similar wagon occurs (zakman going down in equally nonsensical flames) and he doesn't hesitate to grill zak over it all. He turns around and votes AGM in retaliation for AGM accusing him (which is typical fwy and not suspicious).
- I don't know if calling himself a cit every single post is IC for fwy or not.
- AGM is right: why does fwybwed assume/know I'm a cit? Usually I'm one of his favorite punching bags... Oh, this is interesting. Fwybwed *has* been suspecting me.
-

quote:

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Double bluff!?!?

What is this!?!?...Some people are making this alot more difficult than it already is....SIGH

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These occurrences are enough to make me think Fwybwed is mafia:
- He ignores the WCFmo wagon entirely, and then when presented with a similar situation (but where the victim in question is a cit not scum) he jumps all over it.
- He declares loudly and repeatedly his suspicions for me, but then seems to assume I am a cit. Fwybwed doesn't do that. He always thinks his suspects are mafia because that's how fwy operates. He runs hot and cold. He tunnels in tightly and twists everything they say into more evidence of their scumhood.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
1) I never responded because I make it a habit to never read your posts because generally they aren't worth reading and just make my blood boil.

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Ahh, lovin it

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
2) Here's my standard put-down (with extra venom to make up for the decline in quantity): Take your hands off the keyboard, and put them on your face. You will feel two orbs above your nose (the triangular thing sticking out in the center). These are called eyeballs. We use them to look at things and, more relevantly, to read. I assume you were taught to read at some point, so whenever you feel like it could you please start doing so?

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yes and it amazes me how you never get suspended for such talk. this so rude...Rude/Crass Personal Attacks

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
3) I figured it out because I use my brain. Gawain was exceptionally excited (indicated by folksiness) --> he has a role. I suspected he was the cop but wasn't sure until he asked for a vote count. I knew when I read that he was resigning himself to revealing so the lynch wouldn't be wasted. Scum wouldn't do that. Furthermore, he wasn't overtly friendly- just cheery. Scum want to make friends. And a scum would cloak his excitement better because he'd have another place to vent that excitement- among his cohorts. When on his own, however, the only place to post is on the thread.
Anyone with half a brain can figure out why I wouldn't tell you all this at the time, but for you fwybwed I'll spell it out: I was one of the few people to notice, obviously. Thus the odds were the mafia didn't know by that point. So if I were to say "whoa don't lynch him he's probably the seer", guess what? now they're paying attention and Gawain's death is practically assured.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
I still suggest you all vote for me next round, but vote fwybwed next round. I believe we have found scum number two.[/b]

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Lol Whut!?!?

So you figured out who the cop is by R2 WOW... cause he was "folksie" and "Cheery" OH PLEASE. You say Im tunneling, I dont think so, I have changed my game play for the last 2 games. Some noticed, others like your self "tunnel" me in my old ways.

I dont accuse much, but ask questions more... the old me would have been Oh buggers avoiding me blah blah blah... but you straight avoided questions, tried to herd, and played the role of upset citzen WAY TO HARD! imo. And play me off.

in any case, Wow this is the most you posted on any one player this game NICE! Suspicious but nice

As for my thoughts on voting you out...Im concerned because we the Citizens only have a few rounds left to catch atleast ONE MORE Mafia member. IF and thats a big IF, you are a citizen, why aren't willing to stand your ground and play this out. but you want us the citizens of Tillimook to hang you for our benefit!?!?!? Because you are TOOOO DANGEROUS to leave alive through out the game.... Whats that about.

ANYONE!?!?!

WHY!!!!?

Im changing my vote to AGM: He tried to twist my example around above and failed.