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Author
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Topic: Post for Magic Stuff Part 59
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Heresy19
Member
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posted September 06, 2011 06:11 PM
        
Yay for buying a Blazing Shoal for 0.50$ at the LGS  Boo for having 3 digits erased from my DCI card so I won't be able to check my PW points (??? the heck is that?) until tomorow :/
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MeddlingMage
Member
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posted September 06, 2011 06:22 PM
Wow, I used to have tons of Blazing Shoals...hope I can find them
What are they being played in?I always thought it was a solid card, and it made lots of our casual decks. ~MM __________________
I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion, 2007 Captain N award winner, 2010 Marlboro award winner, and 2011 Champion Tournament Pick'em
MOTL NCAA Bracket Challenge winner!CM Punk "OMG Kevin Nash WTF, thought he was dead, LOL" New keeper of the Logout button
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Heresy19
Member
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posted September 06, 2011 06:24 PM
quote:
Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
Wow, I used to have tons of Blazing Shoals...hope I can find them
What are they being played in?I always thought it was a solid card, and it made lots of our casual decks. ~MM
Mono Blue Infect 
Edit: People laughed at the 4x Dragonstorm in Black's decklist at the ProTour Philly.... they didn't laughed after realizing what it could do with the Shoal :P
[Edited 1 times, lastly by Heresy19 on September 06, 2011]
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WeedIan
Member
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posted September 06, 2011 08:00 PM
quote:
Originally posted by Heresy19:
Mono Blue Infect Edit: People laughed at the 4x Dragonstorm in Black's decklist at the ProTour Philly.... they didn't laughed after realizing what it could do with the Shoal :P
I didn't laugh i just wondered what it was in there for at first other than a ploy card. __________________
Member Since 03/28/2001
10000+ posts
3rd in posts in Ontario
15th in posts on MOTL
Top 5 in Refs in Ontario (by people who location posted)
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stu55
Member
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posted September 06, 2011 08:58 PM
Ugh, I am so frustrated. I don't know if I have hit a plateau or just running bad on mtgo....is anyone here at least a breakeven player on mtgo?
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AlmostGrown
Member
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posted September 06, 2011 09:20 PM
quote:
Originally posted by stu55:
Ugh, I am so frustrated. I don't know if I have hit a plateau or just running bad on mtgo....is anyone here at least a breakeven player on mtgo?
I break even through 4-3-2-2 drafts.
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daner
Member
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posted September 06, 2011 09:45 PM
quote:
Originally posted by stu55:
is anyone here at least a breakeven player on mtgo?
I do more than break even son.
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stab107
Member
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posted September 06, 2011 09:48 PM
quote:
Originally posted by daner:
I do more than break even son.
oh SNAP! Now it is ON! edit: Just to stay on topic, Stu are you drafting/sealeding M12? I found with core sets on MODO that my chances of winning were lower than with Expansion sets, so when I can get online to play (which is not so often these days, sorry wayne  ) I stick to block drafts whenever possible.
[Edited 1 times, lastly by stab107 on September 06, 2011]
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Volcanon
Member
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posted September 06, 2011 10:47 PM
quote:
Originally posted by stu55:
Ugh, I am so frustrated. I don't know if I have hit a plateau or just running bad on mtgo....is anyone here at least a breakeven player on mtgo?
I'm slightly ahead doing old set drafts almost exclusively. Urza's Saga is a very fertile set.
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caquaa
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 03:21 AM
quote:
Originally posted by stu55:
is anyone here at least a breakeven player on mtgo?
only when I've played standard. I just don't buy into standard so being able to borrow a deck that I want to play doesn't come up that often. When I draft i have highs and lows but usually bottom out. I'm currently at zero packs and tix. I could always grab a draft set and go for a while, but it usually ends eventually. IMO if you want to get ahead on mtgo you need to play constructed daily events regularly. It seems to be the best way.
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JensK
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 04:02 AM
quote:
Originally posted by AlmostGrown:
I break even through 4-3-2-2 drafts.
Why would you play worst payout queue? The expected return in 4-3-2-2 (11 packs) is less than 8-4 (12 packs) and Swiss queues (12 packs) no matter how you set up your chances of winning. If you have 75% or 25% of winning on avg. you are still better off with the 8-4 or Swiss
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stu55
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 08:05 AM
I am running mostly constructed at the moment, modern.I seem to 4-0 or 3-1 a daily and then proceed to to go 5-15 in matches directly thereafter. I have the occasional hiccup in real life when it comes to misplays but I am a much better player than that....
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yakusoku
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 10:10 AM
quote:
Originally posted by JensK:
Why would you play worst payout queue? The expected return in 4-3-2-2 (11 packs) is less than 8-4 (12 packs) and Swiss queues (12 packs) no matter how you set up your chances of winning. If you have 75% or 25% of winning on avg. you are still better off with the 8-4 or Swiss
That's not the expected return. That's the TOTAL payout. Expected return (expected value) is the average number of packs he can expect to win. Also, he's not better off with the Swiss if he can win 75% of the time (although he is better off if he wins 50% or less of the time). Let's first assume that he can win 50% of all his matches. For the Swiss tournament, he can expect: 3 losses (LLL) - 12.5% of the time
2 losses, 1 win (WLL, LWL, LLW) - 37.5% of the time
1 loss, 2 wins (WWL, WLW, LWW) - 37.5% of the time
0 losses, 3 wins (WWW) - 12.5% of the time EV = 0 * 12.5% + 1 * 37.5% + 2 * 37.5% + 3 * 12.5% = 1.5 packs on average. On the other hand, in teh 4-3-2-2 queues, he can expect: Loss first round: 50%
Win first round, lose second round - 25%
win first round, win second round lose third round - 12.5%
win first round, win second round, win third round - 12.5% EV = 0*50% + 2 * 25% + 3 * 12.5% + 4 * 25% = 1.375 However, if he can win 75% of the time, his EV for Swiss is 2.25 packs. His EV for 4-3-2-2 queues is: (.75)(.75)(2) + (.75)(.75)(.25)(3) + (.75)(.75)(.75)(4) = 2.484375 The numbers for the 8-4 queue are far more dramatic. EV for 50% win rate is 1.5 (same as Swiss, slightly higher than 4-3-2-2), but for 75% win rate, EV goes up to 4.125 (MUCH higher). For a 25% win rate, Swiss is better than 4-3-2-2 (.75 packs on average vs. 0.578125) and both are better than 8-4 (.1875 packs on average). It's not too terribly difficult to make a graph that shows the EV for all three tournaments based on your win % We'll let f(x) = EV for Swiss, g(x) = EV for 4-3-2-2, and h(x) = EV for 8-4, where x = your win percentage: f(x) = x^3
g(x) = 2 * x(1-x) + 3 * x^2(1-x) + 4 * x^3 = x^3 + x^2 + 2x
h(x) = 4 * x^2(1-x) + 8 * x^3 = 4x^3 + 4x^2 You can actually see the crossover points and theoretically, if you could calculate your win percentage, determine the best queue to play. tldr; version: If you win a lot, play 8-4. If you lose a lot, play Swiss. 4-3-2-2 is worse than either most of the time, but under very specific conditions, can actually be better than Swiss. Your best bet to go "infinite" on MTGO is to play constructed. In a four-round tournament, EV = 4Tx^4 + Fx^4, where x = your win percentage, T = payout for 3-1, F = payout for 4-0. T and F are sufficiently large that it makes the EV far greater for constructed than draft.
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yukizora
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 10:19 AM
Someone calculated you'd need to be at an elo of about 1850 to be doing 8-4 instead of anything else, otherwise 4-3-2-2 is better. Or swiss if you want to play the 3 rounds. But I didn't see any significant difference in skill.
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AlmostGrown
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 10:40 AM
quote:
Originally posted by yukizora:
Someone calculated you'd need to be at an elo of about 1850 to be doing 8-4 instead of anything else, otherwise 4-3-2-2 is better. Or swiss if you want to play the 3 rounds. But I didn't see any significant difference in skill.
My ELO was 1750. I also do 4-3-2-2 not to make profit, but for the prospect of going infinite (I win enough to do another draft). @JensK - I'm not trying to make money off of MTGO, I'm just trying to practice drafting without breaking the bank.
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JoshSherman
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 11:29 AM
I'm pretty excited! After cleaning out SCG of their .49 Letter Bombs, I have lined up some semi- to-really famous Magic people to sign one for me. It's pretty awesome!__________________
*Joshweek*Letter Bombs!*Facebook Me*
*Logout- I had it first (second)!*
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gcowhsu
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 11:49 AM
Lols, This isn't illegal right to post stupid offers?hi there, how about
My:
1 Mental Misstep
1 Mortarpod
1 Braids, Cabal Minion
Total: $4.77 apathyhouse.com Your:
3 Disrupting Shoal
2 Primal Command
Total: $5.35 apathyhouse.com lmk thanks.
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WeedIan
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 11:53 AM
quote:
Originally posted by gcowhsu:
Lols, This isn't illegal right to post stupid offers?hi there, how about
My:
1 Mental Misstep
1 Mortarpod
1 Braids, Cabal Minion
Total: $4.77 apathyhouse.com Your:
3 Disrupting Shoal
2 Primal Command
Total: $5.35 apathyhouse.com lmk thanks.
Seems fine 1 week ago. I wouldn't have done that even when the values were "even". __________________
Member Since 03/28/2001
10000+ posts
3rd in posts in Ontario
15th in posts on MOTL
Top 5 in Refs in Ontario (by people who location posted)
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Bagbokk
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 11:59 AM
I don't think it's "stupid" as much as it is trying to take advantage of people that might not know certain cards went up in value. It's not that much different than people trying to buy up all the $60 Tarmogoyfs/$20 Confidants/$10 shocklands the moment Modern was announced.
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stu55
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 03:11 PM
quote:
Originally posted by gcowhsu:
Lols, This isn't illegal right to post stupid offers?hi there, how about
My:
1 Mental Misstep
1 Mortarpod
1 Braids, Cabal Minion
Total: $4.77 apathyhouse.com Your:
3 Disrupting Shoal
2 Primal Command
Total: $5.35 apathyhouse.com lmk thanks.
we want names!
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caquaa
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 03:13 PM
quote:
Originally posted by stu55:
we want names!
clicking his h/w icon and scroll down is terribly hard ;p
Doesn't seem like that's the first bad offer on shoals. Hrm, I wonder why I don't trade much on MOTL ><
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jaromirjagr
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 03:17 PM
why the price increase in through the breach,blazing shoal,cloudpost?
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caquaa
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 03:19 PM
quote:
Originally posted by jaromirjagr:
why the price increase in through the breach,blazing shoal,cloudpost?
pro tours for a brand new format tend to do that apparently.
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choco man
Member
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posted September 07, 2011 03:39 PM
quote:
Originally posted by stu55:
we want names!
Isn't it the same MOTL'ers everytime?
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Tha Gunslinga
Moderator
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posted September 07, 2011 03:44 PM
quote:
Originally posted by nylarotep:
hi there, how aboutMy:
1 Mental Misstep
1 Mortarpod
1 Braids, Cabal Minion
Total: $4.77 apathyhouse.com Your:
3 Disrupting Shoal
2 Primal Command
Total: $5.35 apathyhouse.com lmk thanks.
There we go, for posterity.
__________________
Looking for misprinted Commander decks. Got one? Talk to me.
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