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Author
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Topic: Post for Magic Stuff #85 - How slow can we go?
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Goaswerfraiejen
Member
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posted January 23, 2014 06:42 AM
      
Sigh. Nothing like being called a noob and told to learn to play after I supply the exact ruling in question.Gotta love MWS. __________________
"I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each. I do not think they will sing to me." -T.S. EliotRIP Ari Legacy UGB River Rock primer. PM comments/questions.
Info on grad school in Phil.
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rats60
Member
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posted January 23, 2014 07:24 AM
 
quote:
Originally posted by I3Iood:
God. I ventured into the Magic:TG Have/Want Lists today and remembered why I do not even bother........ If you want some comedy, check it out. I only included some of the better rules here as there are alot.http://classic.magictraders.com/ubb/Forum2/HTML/253566.html 1. So he sends with PWE, but you send with Priority Mail.
2. The cards he wants the condition is very important, but the cards he is trading are considered played.
3. No throw ins or deal eveners for you but feel free to throw in or even deal for him.
4. You better be ready to pay a 15% premium to trade with him..... This happens every time I think "Man, maybe I am missing out on some deals by not going to the Magic:TG Have/Want Lists section of the site".
At least he is being upfront. It is not as bad as the guy who says he goes by tcg mid and what he means is he prices his cards by tcg mid and yours less than tcg low.
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spike777
Member
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posted January 23, 2014 09:31 AM
Since coming back to mtg 3 years ago, I've made a h/w list once. Absolutely no success. Buying/selling is just so much easier. You may end up paying the 10-20% 'trade-up' fee if you want it done quickly, but you get to bypass the crazy trading people that take 13 emails of negotiating and go straight to bulk sales deals. Soooooo much easier.
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AGO
Member
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posted January 23, 2014 09:50 AM
quote:
Originally posted by spike777:
Since coming back to mtg 3 years ago, I've made a h/w list once. Absolutely no success. Buying/selling is just so much easier. You may end up paying the 10-20% 'trade-up' fee if you want it done quickly, but you get to bypass the crazy trading people that take 13 emails of negotiating and go straight to bulk sales deals. Soooooo much easier.
I went the same route. Trading became a joke after 3 months of me joining. Went to straight selling and purchasing my cards. Taking a week to hash out a $20 trade is absurd.
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gaeacradle
Member
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posted January 23, 2014 09:56 AM
I stopped trading primarily because I don't want anything that most people have to offer. Besides the high-end stuff for my collection (Alpha/Beta duals), I usually only trade for my speculation targets. But with the recent news of the Chinese fakes (small) and WOTC's willingness to reprint stuff for Modern (big), it's not as safe to hold cards for a long period of time anymore. Furthermore, my main goal this year is to sell enough so that I will recoup all my Magic expenditures so far. This means that I need to sell about $25K this year, so it doesn't make a lot of sense for me to keep acquiring other stuff at the same time I'm trying hard to sell. And finally, I don't mind trading down to people, but it doesn't help me at all since I don't want to trade a few high-priced items for a bunch of volatile Standard staples. And people don't seem to get that concept anyway, so I just stopped trading.
[Edited 1 times, lastly by gaeacradle on January 23, 2014]
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Vegas10
Member
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posted January 23, 2014 10:32 AM
quote:
Originally posted by Goaswerfraiejen:
Sigh. Nothing like being called a noob and told to learn to play after I supply the exact ruling in question.Gotta love MWS.
I hear ya been there before
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jbark
Member
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posted January 23, 2014 10:47 AM
The only trades I've done in the 8 months of being back are really to gain many deck needs at once. And these people traded even up so no biggie. The rest is sales here and buying on eBay. I don't even trade in person now due to everyone trading for value.
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comboking
Member
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posted January 23, 2014 06:41 PM
I was just curious about how rare are crimped tokens and if anybody collects these things.
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jbark
Member
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posted January 23, 2014 07:26 PM
Slinga collects crimps. I used to and id say its not rarer but easier to obtain. Its a guarantee that its the last card and the end cards are more likely to be crimped. But value is more on a chase cards versus random common/uncommon. I'd say $5-10. Depending on the token. Goblin/zombie/dragon/elf/angel can maybe get a premium. But generally crimps are in the range listed.
[Edited 1 times, lastly by jbark on January 23, 2014]
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tragicmagic
Member
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posted January 26, 2014 12:14 PM
I have a rather elementary question in regards to statistics. What would be the mathematical formula to determine percentage likeliness of drawing certain cards in your opening hand?For instance, if I have 12 2-drop creature spells in my opening hand and I want to determine what my odds are of drawing at least two in my first 7, what formula would I use?
[Edited 1 times, lastly by tragicmagic on January 26, 2014]
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jbark
Member
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posted January 26, 2014 12:26 PM
12/60 is odds of one and then multiply by 7...that's odds of one. 11/59 x 6 is the second. I think. Too hungover to work it through lol
[Edited 1 times, lastly by jbark on January 26, 2014]
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oneofchaos
Member
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posted January 26, 2014 01:04 PM
quote:
Originally posted by tragicmagic:
I have a rather elementary question in regards to statistics. What would be the mathematical formula to determine percentage likeliness of drawing certain cards in your opening hand?For instance, if I have 12 2-drop creature spells in my opening hand and I want to determine what my odds are of drawing at least two in my first 7, what formula would I use?
Hyper geometric distribution. (12 choose 2)(48 choose 5)/(60 choose 7)
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JensK
Member
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posted January 26, 2014 01:35 PM
Should cost a game loss not to have the right tokens for your deck. They just never have it on GP streams
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kendawg13
Member
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posted January 26, 2014 09:11 PM
quote:
Originally posted by oneofchaos:
Hyper geometric distribution. (12 choose 2)(48 choose 5)/(60 choose 7)
That's what I like to see...go with this answer
See This (http://www.kibble.net/magic/magic10.php)
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Eatatjoes
Member
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posted January 26, 2014 09:11 PM
What a joke, B and R announcement pushed to the 3rd.
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WeedIan
Member
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posted January 27, 2014 12:01 AM
quote:
Originally posted by Eatatjoes:
What a joke, B and R announcement pushed to the 3rd.
It'd be funny if it was "No Changes" next week  __________________
Member Since 03/28/2001
12000+ posts
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Pushing to get to top 100 in MOTL Refs
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oneofchaos
Member
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posted January 27, 2014 01:06 AM
quote:
Originally posted by Eatatjoes:
What a joke, B and R announcement pushed to the 3rd.
When was it supposed to come out?
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skizzikmonger
Member
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posted January 27, 2014 01:31 AM
quote:
Originally posted by Eatatjoes:
What a joke, B and R announcement pushed to the 3rd.
And that's a problem because.......?
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stab107
Member
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posted January 27, 2014 05:47 AM
quote:
Originally posted by Eatatjoes:
What a joke, B and R announcement pushed to the 3rd.
The 3rd is the Monday after the pre-release, is it not? That is when they said they would do announcements starting with Gatecrash if I recall correctly.
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psrex
Member
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posted January 27, 2014 06:14 AM
From the mother ship:quote:
The Born of the Gods Banned & Restricted update will be announced on February 3, 2014, which is the Monday after the Born of the Gods Prerelease. The changes, if there are any, will go into effect with the release of Born of the Gods on February 7, 2014.This is the scheduling which we announced on September 20, 2012 when we tied the updates to set releases. Due to internal scheduling needs we had moved that announcement a week forward for the past few sets. Those conflicts have been resolved and this scheduling will continue for the foreseeable future.
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oneofchaos
Member
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posted January 27, 2014 03:20 PM
quote:
Originally posted by tragicmagic:
I have a rather elementary question in regards to statistics. What would be the mathematical formula to determine percentage likeliness of drawing certain cards in your opening hand?For instance, if I have 12 2-drop creature spells in my opening hand and I want to determine what my odds are of drawing at least two in my first 7, what formula would I use?
I am going to assume that I interpreted the question correctly in that my deck is 60 cards. I have 12 2-drop creatures. What is probability of drawing 2 in my opening grip assuming no mulligans. Perhaps relevant, is that a turn 2 drop comes out on turn 2, so even on the play you could say probability of drawing two 2 drops in 8 cards (1 turn drawing + opening 7). On the draw your odds are even better. Perhaps the best way to visual the hypergeometric distribution is imagine all your cards in a deck and you sort them into unique piles. So if you have 24 lands, what is the probability you hit 4 lands by turn 4 on the play? 7 cards in the opening grip + 3 cards drawn=10 cards You want 4 out of the 24 so this is where 24 choose 4 comes in
You don't care about the remaining cards so 60-24 = 36, and you would need to choose 10-4=6 cards (24 choose 4)*(36 choose 6)/(60 choose 10)~=0.27452091976 Another easy thing to note is that the left part of the "choose" in the numerator needs to sum to the left part in the denominator, and same with the right part. (IE 24+36 is indeed 60). <math> If you wanted to complicate this and say you wanted 4 lands, and 2 out of your possible 12 4 drops you can redo the math. It's the same as above but the restriction that we are modifying the cards we don't care about above, and forcing 2 to come out of the 12 possible 4 drops. (24 choose 4)(12 choose 2)(24 choose 4)/(60 choose 10)~=0.09884315849 The famous probability of a Force of will in the opening hand is easily calculated using the hypergeo dist. Prob of an event = 1 - Prob of NOT the event happening Prob of a (implying any # 1-4) FOW = 1 - Prob 0 forces
= 1-(56 choose 7)(4 choose 0)/(60 choose 7)
= 1 - 0.60050037425
~= .4 This is of course assuming 7 card opener/60 card deck I was kind of not necessarily doing this as an exercise, but hopefully you can pick up on the pattern here to do your own calculations where you may not be able to get the assistance you want (doing a draft and calculating lands per chance?) If you need any prob/stats help just pm/email me. Hopefully this helps make you make awesome and savage plays. </math> edit: Didn't see the math link to the magic article, but that also works.
[Edited 1 times, lastly by oneofchaos on January 27, 2014]
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Pail42
Member
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posted January 27, 2014 04:54 PM
I use a free little phone app called Manalyzer that can tell the probability of getting at least/exactly X lands in your opening hand and by turn Y. You could just set the "land" in your deck to the number of 2-drops and run the numbers that way*.*Assuming it actually does the math correctly.
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JoshSherman
Member
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posted January 28, 2014 12:58 AM
quote:
Originally posted by oneofchaos:
Perhaps relevant, is that a turn 2 drop comes out on turn 2, so even on the play you could say probability of drawing two 2 drops in 8 cards (1 turn drawing + opening 7). On the draw your odds are even better.
You're not casting the second one until turn three, so you can go to 9 cards on the play and ten on the draw. The turn three draw can be the second two drop, but it can't be the second land.
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tragicmagic
Member
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posted January 28, 2014 05:51 AM
Thanks for the feedback everyone! It was all extremely helpful!! I really enjoyed that link as well. Chaos, your explanation was great as well! I have been reading and rereading everyone's input.
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oneofchaos
Member
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posted January 28, 2014 09:48 AM
quote:
Originally posted by JoshSherman:
You're not casting the second one until turn three, so you can go to 9 cards on the play and ten on the draw. The turn three draw can be the second two drop, but it can't be the second land.
I was accounting for if it was Burning Tree Emissary (worst case scenario). @Tragic If you have any other questions feel free to ask them, even if you just want to compare your own calculations vs somebody else.
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