quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Also, I'm not 100% sure how pile analysis works. The only game I survived past the first 2 rounds was the dead silent game where all the good players were dead. But I keep seeing posts where people say they are going to vote for someone "to not screw up the pile analysis". If you don't vote for who you really suspect, doesn't that mess up the analysis for everyone else?

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Ever played Clue? You know where are trying to figure out who killed Mr. Boddy, and in what room, and with what weapon? The game works by making suggestions, and then somebody reveals something that makes your suggestion impossible--if you say Colonel Mustard in the Hall with the rope, and I show you that I have the rope in my hand, that means the rope can't be the murder weapon. Essentially you use clues to eliminate possibilities that don't work so that you can be the first to correctly guess what person, room, and weapon was set aside at the beginning of the game to describe the murder scenario.

Pile analysis is kind of like playing clue, and the elimination happens through lynches and wolf attacks. In the very first round, the wolves don't know where the game is going to go--that evolves later, so they watch the formation of the round and array themselves in a manner that best hides them. Typically they try not to clump up (vote for the same person) but sometimes they do. These round 1 votes constitute the early piles.

And these are the best piles because they formed when the wolves had the least information. By the end of round 4 EIGHT people will have been eliminated from these piles. So if everyone felt it was likely that pile 3 contained a wolf, and by round 4 only one dude is left in pile 3, it's pretty obvious who the wolf is. This is one of the ways we caught Jaz in WW6--she had eliminated all the other players in the two small piles we suspected the third wolf might be part of.

The problem that arises for pile analysis is that if one of the R1 piles is really huge (7 or more players), it's possible you can get to round 5 without the pile having been significantly reduced, and at that point finding a wolf in it can be a matter of odds more than elimination. This might not be as bad as you think. If there's two players in a pile and 1 is a wolf your odds are 50/50. If there's six players in a pile and 3 are wolves, your odds are still 50/50. But still inordinately large piles in the early game are less useful for analysis in the late game, so some players who are sensitive to that will try to prevent it. AGM calls this pile manipulation--he can call it whatever he likes, it still makes the piles more manageable.

It's extremely tricky for wolves to stay ahead of pile analysis--if the R1 piles get unwieldy you look at R2 instead. Sure only SIX players are eliminated from the R2 piles but R2 started with 2 fewer players. As the rounds progress there are more and more piles for the wolves to keep track of and it gets harder and harder for them to pick their kills carefully to reveal nothing.

The downside is that wolves can manipulate suspicions by eliminating players from piles containing wolves to make you think there are no wolves in there, or by leaving a cits-only pile untouched for the same reason, or by leaving a single cit standing alone in a pile to make him look like an exposed wolf.

But there's more than one way to cut the piles, and the pile analysis metagame will continue to evolve to include alternative piles and so forth as WW progresses into future games. As GLE would no doubt caution, it is not (and should not) be the only tool to find wolves, and can be defeated by wiley wolves. It should not dominate, but should not be ignored, IMO.

Let's say Bugger dies this round. If Bugger turns out to be a wolf but if he turns out to be a cit

Why? Because we will learn nothing about the BOT pile or the Thanos pile from the lynch. The wolves' evening activities will likely reveal something, but it will likely be something most of us already know.

{SUMMARY: discusses pile analysis}

quote:

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
Casting for Bernek; will potentially check back to change to Bugger if necessary.

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It looked as though Bugger had to build a lead and you cast a vote against me? After you say you can't get a read on me. Seems to me you want to keep it close don't you? Why is that? What makes me suspicious too you?

Hey Pd when you get a chance Let me get another vote count?

__________________
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Bugger - 5 votes from Bernek77 [1], fwybwed [2], Liq [3], puregoblinboy47 [4], ThoughtsofLepers [5] - 1: unwilling to be lynched first, 2: nuances of speech, 3: 59 percent, 4: not suspecting BOT, 5: because PGB votes Bugger
Bernek77 - 4 votes from BernieB [1], Bugger [2], GottaLoveElves [3], XplicitR [4] - 1: not stated, 2: Bizarre play,poor logic,wolfy behaviour, 3: oddity, 4: lycanthrope
GottaLoveElves - 3 votes from AlmasterGM [1], MasterWolf [2], PlasteredDragon [3] - 1: posting record, wants to save self, 2: expert player, posted a lot - no real analysis, 3: voted seer twice, suspected PGB after cleared

All votes declared.

It appears to be 5 for Bugger, 4 for Bernek, and 3 for GLE. As any undeclared switching could be highly indicative, I'd be surprised if we saw any. As I suspect Bugger more than Bernek, I won't be switching my vote tonight. Obviously I'd prefer it if GLE goes, but there are reasons to suspect Bugger--at least we aren't trying to waste someone who is almost certainly innocent.

Sorry Bugsie looks like your time has come. Do you have anything useful to add that the other players can think about next round? A final boiled down suspicion list? Nothing too heavy just the bullet points?

As a total aside, I believe I have figured out who the angel is. (No of course I am not going to say who.) The only reason I bring it up is that if I did it (and if I'm right), it's possible the wolves have done so too. If not, I think it's very clear who they will kill tonight.

I'll post a suspicion list later.

{SUMMARY: Short tally. Musings on outcomes, call out to Bugger for final post, expectations for the evening.}

~MM

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quote:

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Sorry Bugsie looks like your time has come. Do you have anything useful to add that the other players can think about next round? A final boiled down suspicion list? Nothing too heavy just the bullet points?
[/B]

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Yes, I do in fact (and some of it can be further validated by my death).

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...The MVP Bugger...

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...as skilled at defending himself as Bugger is...

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... As strong players, I am refering to: Bugger...

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Alright. Everybody thinks I'm such a good player? Fine. Then humor me. I'm going down this round and I don't want it to toss the game for us.
DO NOT LET BERNEK OR GLE OFF THE HOOK.

It mystifies me still that no one besides myself (and XPR and BernieB to an extent) has noted anything suspicious about Bernek. I'm not buying into that whole "his emotion makes it difficult to read him" line. That's utter bunk. People let things slip when they're emotional that they wouldn't otherwise. PD, you second-guess everything GLE says now- why are you not doing the same with his opinion that Bernek's beeing too moody to read? I'm staking my (baffling) reputation as a better-than average player on this: There is a wolf among GLE and Bernek, and most likely two.
Bernek hasn't earned the discussion I feel is his due, especially when contrasted with his hugely suspicious posts. He spent two rounds trying to get everyone to shut up about Thanos:

quote:

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And the talking still continues! This will be my last game as people just don't know when to SHUT UP!!!!!!!

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When something goes unnoticed drop it! Why do people keep bringing it up! I am getting really annoyed right now! People on here complain time an time again about people and bad play! I have just witnessed some of the dumbest play on here! STFU an worry about WOLVES!

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quote:

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I'm suspicious, before you make an accusation like that go back re-read what has been posted and see why I am upset. If you know anything about this game it is spelled out in bold!

@PD I will calm down, just don't know when. I hate when something that is a blessing in disguise gets punted away!

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After Thanos dropped the hint that led me to believe he was the seer, and the wolves killed Jaz. I felt a though we caught a break and the Angel would just keep saving him as he gathered names until the angel was killed then Thanos could come out with what he knows. I do have a right to be upset as a villager.

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quote:

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After Thanos dropped the hint that led me to believe he was the seer,

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IMO to say that you thought Thanos had a role and you were worried strikes me very odd. There was nothing Thanos said or did to give that assumption.

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Then there's GLE. PD has already provided a scathing indictment of GLE's behavior WRT thanos.

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...GLE knows this, which is why he has explained it as he didn't miss the tells at all but wanted to bait the wolves, but that's not quite congruent with his actions that round (such as refusing to declare.)

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And I've said this a lot of times before. This isn't a murder trial. This is werewolf. If a wolf plays tight but has only minor slipups that don't result in strong cases against them, do we just let them win? I know I keep bringing this up game after game, but it backs up my argument game after game. PD was a wolf, and GLE sniffed him out off the bat. It wasn't because of a huge glaring error, but a really minor play that PD made. It resulted in a huge back in forth that wound up lynching GLE. PD is just better at constructing argument and exposing flaws in the arguments of others in this game, and that includes GLE. I tried to take down PD next round with another weak argument of my own, but was foiled and I was lynched. I admit the argument was weak, but that's because PD is a really tight player and never left himself open.
s

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Also, I feel if the choice is between either Bernek or GLE for lynch next round, I urge you all to go GLE instead (this is why I wanted him to "go first"). He is simply far too dangerous to leave around unless we're sure of his identity when he has suspicion on him, and with no seer around we can't take that chance. Bernek can wait- If you see verity in my type, I urge ALL of you to try GLE first if possible.

Also, one final thing:
PD admits he has a bias towards me that exists because we get along so well together outside of this game. That goes both ways (the knowledge, not the bias- I trust the man as far as I can spit him in this game until indicated otherwise). As much as AGM and others may detest drawing conclusions from it, it's simply impossible to ignore the ingame PM completely. That being said, knowing Chuck like I do I know this is a huge, red, neon sign the size of a goodyear blimp screaming "CHUCK IS A CIT KTHXBAI", almost as strongly as a seer's scry would. As a person I can say he would NEVER break a rule like that unless he was entirely sincere about his reaction. And furthermore, he had no way of ensuring that this PM would become common knowledge on the thread- nothing to gain were this theoretically a wolf move: This is another argument that will gain validity with my death when I am proven a cit.

Other than all that? No, nothing, although once I'm dead I'd love to hear your guess for who's the angel Chuck .

EDIT: Spelling fail

I'd like to point out here that Bugger has done what BoT refused to do when I asked him for his final analysis. Obviously BoT was a wolf, knew he was sunk, and decided to provide nothing that would help (hence his joke about me wearing a tutu--btw BOT, HOW DID YOU KNOW????) I think based on Bugger's response that he is probably a cit, but I advise at this point that nobody change their votes, or the wolves will simply harp on him next round and try to use the paranoia of the cits against them.

Bugger's going willingly--let him go. If you are worried about doing so, consider he could be a wolf making a last gambit to look like a cit.

I have also noted something interesting but I will only share it after the lynch. Hopefully MM will post that tonight.

Anybody who has declared and hasn't sent in your vote: DUH! SEND IN YOUR VOTE!

{SUMMARY: final thoughts on Bugger, more to come after lynch.}

@WWs & ANGEL: Tonight after the lynch is posted MM is going to announce that the WW and Angel should get him names. In the interest of not having to wait another 24 hours to start the next round, wolves and angel should probably figure out who their evening targets are now, and try to get that information to MM immediately after he posts the lynch results.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
...It mystifies me still that no one besides myself (and XPR and BernieB to an extent) has noted anything suspicious about Bernek. I'm not buying into that whole "his emotion makes it difficult to read him" line. That's utter bunk. People let things slip when they're emotional that they wouldn't otherwise. PD, you second-guess everything GLE says now- why are you not doing the same with his opinion that Bernek's beeing too moody to read?...

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
...Also, some more bull****:

After Thanos dropped the hint that led me to believe he was the seer,

You are lying through your teeth.

IMO to say that you thought Thanos had a role and you were worried strikes me very odd. There was nothing Thanos said or did to give that assumption.

See?

[...]

Cit's don't need to position themselves to look good- only wolves do.

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Which is not to say that Bernek is beyond suspicion, just that it truly is very hard to get a read on him. He plays, he has fun, and I enjoy playing with him, but I have no wolf-sample for Bernek--he's always been a cit in games I've played. Until I get one, based on the parameters of his cit persona, there's a lot of things I will not find suspicious in Bernek that I would find suspicious in another player.

It's this that tends to sink the new players, honestly. They each bring their own quirks to the game, and some of those quirks are innocent but because we've not seen them before, they look guilty and get snuffed.

I share your opinion that Bernek is suspicious, but to a much lesser degree. I noticed something last night about Bernek and another player which informs me in that regard, and I will share it after the lynch.

WRT to GLE. We are of like minds. He's very suspicious, and people are letting him off the hook for his behavior.

Bugger ~ Bernek (1)
PlasteredDragon ~ GLE (1)
fwybwed ~ Bugger (1)
GLE ~ Bernek (2)
Masterwolf ~ GLE 2
BernieB ~ Bernek (3)
AlmasterGM ~ GLE (2)
XplicitR ~ Bernek (4)
PGB ~ Bugger (2)
Liq ~ Bugger (3)
ThoughtsofLepers ~ Bugger (4)
Bernek77 ~ Bugger (5)

Bugger, yet another villager, has been wrongfully lynched.

Those with special roles, pm me your targets.

~MM

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I am dragged down the lane, past the Liq residence. His wife is watching from the window, watching her husband drag an innocent to his fate. Her two children watch as well, they think their father is performing an act of heriosm. I wonder how he will be able to face them later today, to tell them that their father killed an innocent citizen in cold blood.

I pass one crossroads, then another. Faces, some familiar and some not, pick up the pace and the chant alongside those who fetched me in the first place. Along the way we pass our mayor. MeddlingMage looks at the mobbers with regret, and at me with sorrow. Does he know my innocence? I shout his name, hoping he will save me from my fate. But he pretends not to hear, he turns away. I am beyond aid now.

Soon we come to the town square. There I see more faces I recognise- there is PlasteredDragon, the town crier, taking notes of the lynch to announce tonight. He seems upset. Alongside him are others I recognise as well, some old friends, some passing acquaintances. They can't stop the mob that carries me, cries for my blood. They are too few, the rioters too many. I have no escape.

I am taken to a platform erected under the oak tree, and with my hands bound behind my back am roughly forced to walk up the platform. Greeting me with a vengeful grin on his face is Bernek, the proprietor of Pogglesworth's billiard hall. In his hands he holds a noose. He and I never got along well. Is this petty revenge, taken to the extreme? Or is he a wolf, acting on a grand stage for all the town to see? I can't tell. Only his death will provide the answer. But it is not him who will be wearing the noose now, only me.

He puts it over my shoulders, around my neck, and draws it up tight. I step onto an old produce crate and take a deep breath. I see the graves of Thanos, Jazaray, JackSpade, and Ryan in the cemetery just past fwybwed's store. A human-sized patch of upturned earth rests beside JackSpade's grave, a tombstone behind it. My grave. I will be joining them soon.
The chants of the crowd grows larger in my ears.

With my last free movement, I turn again to the east and see the sun. It has risen a bit now, the red fading into orange which in time will fade to yellow. I will not live to see that happen.
The crate is kicked out from underneath me by PGB. The crowd roars their approval. I am falling.
I am gone.

...
Good luck cits!

Next round will be upon us soon, so I want to get this out there so you will all have it to consider then.

There are two players (and only 2 players) who have voted identically every single round of this game. That would be Bernek and TOL. If they were wolves this would be dumb to a degree that borders on the exceptional. It's also pretty dumb play even if ONE of them is a wolf, because eventually people notice this sort of thing and it arouses their suspicions. (Witness, Obie "shadowing" PD in WW7.)

Yet both of these players are in the BOT pile, with me. I'm a cit and the two remaining players in the pile are engaging in behavior that a wolf would consciously avoid. They were already at the bottom of my "suspicious pile", and this makes them even less suspicious to me.

So that leaves GLE, fwy, Liq as the list I thought likely to include 2 wolves, and I'm quite convinced that GLE is one of them. I submit to you that he didn't vote for Bugger because he knew Bugger would be lynched--avoiding blame. Every suspicion he's announced has been hedged to the Nth degree.

I strongly suggest you guys take GLE out next round. No I don't know for a fact that he's a wolf, but I think the case against him is hella stronger than the case against Bugger was, and certainly stronger than the ridiculous caricature of the case fwy painted it as. Fwy, the one player GLE took a time out to tell us "I think Fwy is a cit".

Anyway it's been fun. Good luck! I'll keep following and tracking the game. Keep an eye on the piles!

{SUMMARY: Bernek and TOL voted identically R1, R2, R3 -- less likely they are wolves.}

quote:

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
That post reeks of dog food. The "I'm going to die tonight!" motif hasn't been visited in a while.
I'll get more into that after the killing, which I'm starting to want to bet won't be anywhere near PD.

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EDIT: AFA who dies tonite, you know who the angel is protecting so it isn't him. I'm the closest thing to a confirmed cit besides him, so it is very likely me, unless you've puzzled out who the angel is, in which case it will be him. In the latter case you can then try to foment suspicion on me--there are definitely some who'll second that, at least the other wolf will for sure. Right fwy?

{SUMMARY: GLE tries to build suspicion on PD.}

GLE's post above is what we call a "set up". He's setting himself up for the post kill, and I strongly suggest you don't let him get away with it.

The "I'm going to die tonight!" motif hasn't been visited in a while.

GLE is not an idiot. Think for a minute, when the seer comes out and confirms someone as a cit, who (after the seer) is generally the person the wolves go after? The confirmed cit--unless the angel is still alive, then they will probably choose someone else (preferrably the angel himself). Regardless of the case GLE intends to fabricate against me, after PGB I'm the closest thing we have to a confirmed cit.

GLE knows this and if he were a cit he would readily acknowledge that I am the logical target for the wolves--assuming they haven't identified the angel. But instead he treats the notion as ludicrous. Put the emotionality aside for a minute and consider it logically--if you are a wolf and you don't know who the angel is and there are two players the crowd generally doesn't suspect and you KNOW one of them is under angelic protection, who do you choose? Of course there may be other factors involved which we don't know of, but we all understand what the logical choice is. And so does GLE--so why does he act as though it is so outlandish that I anticipate I'm going to die?

With each kill the wolves either want to nudge the populace in a direction (i.e. framing someone) or simply remove the person who is least suspected in order to leave the populace as conflicted as possible.

Although GLE would like to pretend that there are a host of reasons to suspect me, there really aren't--but from my perspective he's in a bit of a quandary. If I'm right and he is a wolf, then his discussion with his fellow wolf last night centered around how best to deal with his most vocal accuser. Eliminating me makes him look worse--though he can attempt to spin it. Another option would be to have the other wolf take my side and lynch GLE (sac play) to make the other wolf look innocent. And the final option would be to cast suspicion on me. It's easy not to trust me--I'm brash, outspoken, occasionally condescending, and have demonstrated the ability to talk myself out of precarious positions.

GLE hasn't missed the fact that TOL suggested I could be the wolf in the BOT pile, and he hasn't missed the fact that fwy seems to have suspicion of me as well (which if fwy is a wolf, is understandable). This probably looks like an opportunity to him.

I'll get more into that after the killing, which I'm starting to want to bet won't be anywhere near PD.

Which brings us to the setup itself. This is so clever. GLE bets I won't be killed, consider the outcomes:

I am killed. GLE says "obviously the wolves are trying to frame me, clearly if I were a wolf I wouldn't bet Chuck would not be killed and then kill him."

The angel is killed. GLE says "See? Chuck didn't die, and further he told us all he had identified the angel."

Neither I nor the angel are killed. GLE says "Told ya! Chuck can't be killed at night because he was a wolf."

Did you notice the one eventuality that GLE hasn't covered?

GLE being killed.

Not to borrow a play from Liq's playbook (since it really is a fairly weak argument in the absence of other indicators)--but GLE assures us he'll discuss it after the kill. How can he make that assurance? What if *he* is killed? Assume for a minute he really thinks I am a wolf, and he knows I could likewise claim "the wolves are trying to frame me" if GLE suddenly died in the night. Why would he assume that he's going to be here in the morning?

If GLE is not a wolf, and I am not a wolf, then either of us make great targets. GLE should know this too. Funny how it doesn't seem to have occurred to him. (BTW, expect GLE to either refute this notion or to claim that he was well aware of it but didn't see the need to point it out, or thought it was dangerous to point out.)

If I am still alive next round and the angel doesn't die, I believe it will be because GLE is convinced he can get enough people on the lynch wagon to waste me (and possibly via the other wolf--as opposed to having to do it himself.) If the angel does die, I expect GLE or his proxy to try to frame me for that. If I die, I expect GLE to make the frame-up argument, casting himself as the victim of the wolves' plan to eliminate the strong players.

And if I am completely wrong about GLE--well then maybe the wolves will kill him. Guess we'll have to see. If I am wrong about GLE that only leaves Liq as the best possible candidate for a strong wolf.

{SUMMARY: Discusses GLE's "set up" and the possible outcomes.}

Which means that we have to take your analysis with a grain of salt, because what if the wolves made their decision based on your post?

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
I don't like that post PD. I think you spell out too many things, and now all the wolves have to do is follow your plan to frame whoever they want based on your arguments.

Which means that we have to take your analysis with a grain of salt, because what if the wolves made their decision based on your post?

I understand why people don't like posts between deaths.

---

I apologize if it upsets you.

{SUMMARY: Responds to MW -- I don't think I'm saying anything the WWs don't already know.}

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bernek77:
I don't like the talking during night phase just in case the Wolves didn't know.

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quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Bernek77:
I don't like the talking during night phase just in case the Wolves didn't know.

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Yes, but I believe I am going to be wiped out so I need to get it out there. It's a risk, but I'm taking it. You can beat me up later for it.

{SUMMARY: Responds to Bernek -- making a calculated risk.}[/QUOTE]

quote:

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Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
Or another thing you could be doing is baiting the angel into saving you. Which would leave me wide open.

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Good observation. I wasn't thinking about it that way. Hmm

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

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Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
Or another thing you could be doing is baiting the angel into saving you. Which would leave me wide open.

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But if it makes you feel better:

Dear Angel, you are officially PGB's underwear. If you leave his butt uncovered this round, we're going to take you back to the store for a replacement.

{SUMMARY: Angel's direction should be clear. And that's why there can be no saves.}

quote:

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Originally posted by Bernek77:
Good observation. I wasn't thinking about it that way. Hmm

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PGB pretty much blew any chance of the angel eking out a save by making that announcement.

@PGB: WW7 is over. This is WW10. You were *SO SURE* I was a wolf last game, remember? You need to get beyond this. As you are the only truly confirmed cit, I need you to take a hard look at GLE. If you are going to get distracted by me again, then the wolves are going to leave me alive so that GLE's proxy can build a case on me next round. As noted before I wasn't saying anything they didn't already know. Your speculation that I am "up to something" tells them something they didn't know--they might be able to bamboozle you into suspecting me. That's a pretty key piece of information, don't you think?

{SUMMARY: Difference between admitting what wolves already know, and what they don't.}

Villagers, your votes are due Friday Night.

~MM

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