Masterwolf
BernieB
AlmasterGM
XplicitR
PGB
Liq
ThoughtsofLepers
Bernek77

An enigmatic list. Statistically, we have a 28% chance of hitting a wolf this round and a 40% chance next round (assuming PGB is a citizen). These are not terrible odds. However, if we mess up both times, we lose.

Masterwolf
BernieB
AlmasterGM
XplicitR
PGB
Liq
ThoughtsofLepers
Bernek77

Of these players let's take a walk through.

People Who I think are innocent.

PGB - has all but been officially confirmed as a villager. I do believe he is a villager and should be continued to be protected by the angel. As the wolves are Angel hunting.

ToL - Called out BoT as I don't foresee a wolf doing that too early in the game.

I know I am a villager

So people with medium to low suspicion:

Liq - Probably the best player left in the pool. I feel as though with the Lynch of GLE last round followed by the PD kill it puts suspicion out there. Why is Liq still alive? I feel this is a trap by the wolves into trying to get us to lynch another strong player.

Xplicitr - Could of I been wrong earlier in this game, as he pointed out Thanos's role. Could of he been trying to drop a hint to the Angel and do us a favor. The jury is still out on him but I may have lightened up on my suspicion.

Highest suspects:

BernieB - My good friend, Hi Bernie! Experienced, Clever and quiet enough to get the job done. A few of his posts do not sit well with me.

Masterwolf - Has been very quiet in this game, blaming computer issues for this. Could this just be a ploy to not get us to look at him?

AlmasterGM - It was said that when he was a wolf before that he was just as quiet. Could you see him making this same mistake again? It raises questions.

As of now I think the veteran player in the wolf pack is BernieB and this is where I am voting.

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

---

Originally posted by BernieB:
My main suspicion has always been with you as well, friend Bernek, you have my vote.

---

^ - Really that's it! That is all you have? Really?

I think I have done enough to prove I am a villager. I was trying to get people to stop talking about Thanos's role. I asked for people to reconsider GLE's vote and vote for me instead, leaving a much stronger VILLAGER in the game. Not to mention I did also vote for BoT first round and the only reason my vote was declared so late was I also have a life but declared my suspicion of him early right after ToL did.

So if all of this makes me suspicious my friend then I can't tell???

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

Though ended now are all my songs,
Suspicion of them 'tis proved wrong.
What tears should there be shed for me?
Why none! For we'll find victory!

E'en as I pass beyond the veil
I knowest that we will prevail.
And as my final breath exits,
I whispereth thus "good fortune cits!"

{SUMMARY: Good luck cits! And please, USE THE TAGS! :-)}

Will post more in the morning.

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

As much as I hate to agree with Bernek, I think he is right about AlmasterGM being the top suspect....

However, I feel that it is highly likely that Liq is the second big werewolf in the pack as he has kept a low profile all game and outside of randomly throwing out numbers with accusations has not given real claims as to why he was suspicious.

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Sucks to lose both GLE and PD.

As much as I hate to agree with Bernek, I think he is right about AlmasterGM being the top suspect....

However, I feel that it is highly likely that Liq is the second big werewolf in the pack as he has kept a low profile all game and outside of randomly throwing out numbers with accusations has not given real claims as to why he was suspicious.

{SUMMARY: Suspicious of Liq and AGM}

---

That is normal Liq behavior. I feel as thought IMO the wolves want us to lynch Liq. Seeing as all the talk was about the the 3 of them being alive (GLE, PD and Liq). We lynched GLE then the wolves took out PD. What should follow suit? We lynch Liq. Then we are without one of the games stronger players. The only other veteran in the game that is possible to know how this will play out is Bernie.

Take a step back and think about it. We spent the last round talking about why all 3 of them are alive. Then that round 2 of them die. Again what should follow suit? If Liq is a wolf he would of known that he would automatically get targeted. He would not allow that to happen.

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

We might be dealing with 2 noob-to-average wolves.

Liq is clearly one of the most suspicious players left. He's definitely the "best" player left, and consensus was a couple rounds ago that there was definitely a wolf among GLE, PD, and Liq. I think the obvious play is to lynch Liq this round. But the wolves know that too. As Bernek said, they could be setting us up to waste one of our last 2 lynches, and take out our best cit at the same time. But I can't disregard Liq completely, because he IS the best player left and there's always the possibility that Bernek is just defending his leader. If Bernek is a wolf, then almost definitely Liq is too. Suspicion of Liq: Medium

AlmasterGM: I just feel like he would be playing differently if he was a cit. Nothing he's done this game screams wolf, but the problem is he hasn't really done much of anything this game. No solid analysis, no participation in discussion or anything. Just like the last two games (both wolven) he waits til the end and then tries to sway people's opinions. Maybe that's his "style", but until he's played more games as a confirmed cit the only thing we know is that every time he's played like this, he's been a wolf. Suspicion: High.

Bernek: I've been suspicious of him for most of the game. Like I said earlier "He's acted very over-the-top, defensive, angry, etc. I feel like he's either playing a scared wolf or a big baby." Others have said that's just the way he plays, so I dunno. But it doesn't seem smart to have your "style" basically be "I always act suspiciously". Plus I feel like if he gets lynched and is a wolf, we can go ahead and vote off Liq and it'll be a done deal. Suspicion: Medium/High

ToL/Bernie: Medium suspicion because of how quiet he's played.

Low/No Suspicion: XplicitR, PGB

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bernek77:
Masterwolf - Has been very quiet in this game, blaming computer issues for this. Could this just be a ploy to not get us to look at him?

---

code:

---

PLAYER            R01  R02  R03  R04  GRP  STA
================  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===
MasterWolf        AGM  ---  GLE  GLE   1    A
Bernek77          BOT  XPR  BUG  PD    2    A
ThoughtsofLepers  BOT  XPR  BUG  GLE   2    A
BernieB           PGB  PGB  B77  B77   3    A
Liq               PD   JSP  BUG  BB    3    A
AlmasterGM        THA  PGB  GLE  GLE   4    A
XplicitR          THA  JSP  B77  GLE   4    A
puregoblinboy47   THA  JSP  BUG  GLE   4    A
~*~
PlasteredDragon   BOT  JSP  GLE  GLE   C    E
GottaLoveElves    THA  THA  B77  PD    C    L
fwybwed           AGM  BUG  BUG        C    E
Bugger            JSP  JSP  B77        C    L
Thanos            BOT  JSP             S    E
JackSpade         BOT  BUG             C    L
Jazaray           BOT                  C    E
Battle_of_Twits   THA                  W    L
ryan2754                               C    E

---

Right now I'm willing to bet that no wolf voted for BoT. The reason for this is that they seem almost willing to eliminate all BoT voters with no regard for their own personal safety. It may just be my opinion but I believe neither of the remaining BoT voters would do such if they were wolves.

My thoughts land me with these two piles.

Pile 1: Random Voters
MasterWolf
BernieB

Pile 2: Thanos Voters
AlmasterGM
XplicitR

I'm voting BernieB this round since his round 1 and 2 votes were for PGB. PGB was an easy target in the first round but I think he saw PGB as being "cleared" before PD did and continued to suspect PGB (#321) after PD "cleared him in Round 3. If BernieB does not turn out to be a wolf, then MasterWolf is indeed a wolf. Otherwise MW is a villager.

The problem remains with the other pile. We do not have the time to clear/confirm and I doubt the wolves will help us.

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

Pile 1: Random Voters
MasterWolf
BernieB
Liq

Pile 2: Thanos Voters
AlmasterGM
XplicitR
PGB

Pile 3: BOT Voters
Bernek77
ThoughtsofLepers

Now, I know I am a citizen. If XplicitR is also a citizen and what Liq says about there being no wolves in the BOT pile is true, that leaves a VERY interesting endgame - two out of three wolves will have voted in the "random" pile round one. This doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. The Thanos vs BoT vote was close. BoT was lynched by a margin of only +1, meaning that if both the random wolf voters had simply voted Thanos, they could have saved their leader and nailed the seer. This move wouldn't have really exposed them either; looking at the piles now, the Thanos pile versus the random pile are the same size. Keeping this in mind, I think there are two probable options about the wolf strategy.

1) The wolves are willing to take risks and didn't mind throwing BoT under the bus.
2) One of the wolves voted Thanos.

If option one is true, I think the person who most fits the bill is Liq. Neither MasterWolf or BernieB strike me as risk takers - I think they'd be more likely to just do the math and vote for
Thanos. However, at the same time, Bernie is experienced and has made some other suspicious plays. Voting for him wouldn't be an entire bad play. However, lynching Liq right now is risky and not entirely founded. I think we should consider option two: XplicitR

XplicitR as a wolf makes sense. It debunks the "no wolf voted for Thanos" option, a scenario that I think is highly unlikely to be true. XplicitR voting for Thanos also matches with his skill level - he is good enough to know what wagons to vote on and how piles may turn out, but not so advanced that he'd deem it acceptable to throw BoT under the bus. He's also made it a point NOT to kill ANYONE from Pile 2, his place of residence, as no wolf kills have damaged that pile - only lynches. XplicitR has also made a fair number of suspicious posts in the past, and has made it a point to slip under the radar and let the GLE lynch take its course (fits with the apparent wolf strategy of trying to get rid of good people at this point - GLE followed by PD). That's four strikes against XplicitR, if I count correctly, and that's without any post quotes.

quote:

---

Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
First off, Liq, lets fix the piles.

Pile 1: Random Voters
MasterWolf
BernieB
Liq

Pile 2: Thanos Voters
AlmasterGM
XplicitR
PGB

Pile 3: BOT Voters
Bernek77
ThoughtsofLepers

Now, I know I am a citizen. If XplicitR is also a citizen and what Liq says about there being no wolves in the BOT pile is true, that leaves a VERY interesting endgame - two out of three wolves will have voted in the "random" pile round one. This doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. The Thanos vs BoT vote was close. BoT was lynched by a margin of only +1, meaning that if both the random wolf voters had simply voted Thanos, they could have saved their leader and nailed the seer. This move wouldn't have really exposed them either; looking at the piles now, the Thanos pile versus the random pile are the same size. Keeping this in mind, I think there are two probable options about the wolf strategy.

1) The wolves are willing to take risks and didn't mind throwing BoT under the bus.
2) One of the wolves voted Thanos.

If option one is true, I think the person who most fits the bill is Liq. Neither MasterWolf or BernieB strike me as risk takers - I think they'd be more likely to just do the math and vote for
Thanos. However, at the same time, Bernie is experienced and has made some other suspicious plays. Voting for him wouldn't be an entire bad play. However, lynching Liq right now is risky and not entirely founded. I think we should consider option two: XplicitR

XplicitR as a wolf makes sense. It debunks the "no wolf voted for Thanos" option, a scenario that I think is highly unlikely to be true. XplicitR voting for Thanos also matches with his skill level - he is good enough to know what wagons to vote on and how piles may turn out, but not so advanced that he'd deem it acceptable to throw BoT under the bus. He's also made it a point NOT to kill ANYONE from Pile 2, his place of residence, as no wolf kills have damaged that pile - only lynches. XplicitR has also made a fair number of suspicious posts in the past, and has made it a point to slip under the radar and let the GLE lynch take its course (fits with the apparent wolf strategy of trying to get rid of good people at this point - GLE followed by PD). That's four strikes against XplicitR, if I count correctly, and that's without any post quotes.

Currently voting XplicitR.

---

Let me get in here and shed some light for you. Something that I over looked. I feel as though I was targeting Xplicitr due to him constantly announcing Thanos's role. But in a nutshell I think it could of helped us at this stage of the game.

I don't think a wolf would announce Thanos's role, saying he is the angel an turns out to be the seer could hurt them personally. As it gives the angel a direction. The wolves could be in some real trouble had the Angel did his job in protected him. But that is neither here nor there.

What it comes down to is had the wolves did it right Liq would be the main suspect this round. Had they waited on PD, the case would be brought up against Liq. Then they could of lynched PD. Pretty much sealing the game for themselves. We caught a break and I think the play of the wolves ALMOST clears Liq. If bernie turns out to be a Villager then Liq is a wolf.

Almaster you and Masterwolf are the final 2 that qualify to having to be the other wolf. Almaster you have a history of being too quiet till the end while being a wolf. That history normally comes back to haunt you. Masterwolf computer issues do happen and while they can be a legitimate reason for you, it is also a good cover. You have also contributed very little in this game. You made sure to point out Almaster's tendencies however, you made a point to explain your comp. issues.

I feel as though this round should go to bernie and next round based on the outcome. Here is how I see it:

Lynch bernie - Turns out to be a wolf we go after Almaster or Masterwolf

Lynch Bernie - Turns out to be a villager we go after Liq then ToL as Liq a kept him low on his radar and would make sense for ToL to sell out BoT to protect his innocence.

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

---

Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Man you are really trying hard to push the computer issues deal. Especially after I already said that I bought a new monitor after round 1. Furthermore, I think I've contributed a lot more than you have in terms of analysis and discussion, but I wouldn't be surprised if you didn't actually read my posts since you probably already know who's a cit and who's not.

Bernek Suspicion Up

---

My apologies on the computer issue, I thought it was brought up a lot more than it was. U just missed the vote due to the timing.

I am sticking with Bernie. I feel as though he is and should be the number one suspect.

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

---

Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
XplicitR as a wolf makes sense. It debunks the "no wolf voted for Thanos" option, a scenario that I think is highly unlikely to be true. XplicitR voting for Thanos also matches with his skill level - he is good enough to know what wagons to vote on and how piles may turn out, but not so advanced that he'd deem it acceptable to throw BoT under the bus. He's also made it a point NOT to kill ANYONE from Pile 2, his place of residence, as no wolf kills have damaged that pile - only lynches. XplicitR has also made a fair number of suspicious posts in the past, and has made it a point to slip under the radar and let the GLE lynch take its course (fits with the apparent wolf strategy of trying to get rid of good people at this point - GLE followed by PD). That's four strikes against XplicitR, if I count correctly, and that's without any post quotes.

Currently voting XplicitR. [/B]

---

That would definitely make your life a lot easier now wouldn't it AGM. Since I know I am not a citizen, you wouldn't be doing us any good. However, you are quasi-PD, because you try to follow his strategy and tear people's arguments to shreds, however you do it horribly.

Also you say that I wanted to get rid of PD?

I pointed out ever since he PMed me that I thought he was a citizen. Also as a wolf, why on earth would I want other people to clear their suspicions of PD by annoucing that he PMed me. Of course him sending it was against the rules and I was stupid to mention it, but its done now. So where does that leave me? Why don't you go try to wagon on someone else that isn't you because if all the cits see through you like I do, you will hang from the noose....WOLF.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bernek77:
I feel as though this round should go to bernie and next round based on the outcome. Here is how I see it:

Lynch bernie - Turns out to be a wolf we go after Almaster or Masterwolf

Lynch Bernie - Turns out to be a villager we go after Liq then ToL as Liq a kept him low on his radar and would make sense for ToL to sell out BoT to protect his innocence.

---

I don't like this at all - there's zero continuity between any of your scenarios. If BernieB is a wolf, why does that clear Liq and pile 2/3? If Bernie is a citizen, why is Liq guilty but MasterWolf innocent? You JUST said you were almost positive Liq is a citizen. Now he's not? Also, if Bernie is a citizen, we don't have enough time to go for both Liq and TOL - we'll only have one shot.

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
That would definitely make your life a lot easier now wouldn't it AGM.

---

The opposite is true, actually. If I'm a wolf, I'd rather have you alive to insulate my pile. Otherwise, it's just me and a confirmed citizen (PGB). And if I had to pick a target to try and get lynched, it'd be Liq, the best player remaining, not you.

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Since I know I am not a citizen,

---

Slip-up concession????

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
However, you are quasi-PD, because you try to follow his strategy and tear people's arguments to shreds, however you do it horribly.

---

What? How am I even remotely like PD? Because I made analysis in a game of werewolf? Is logic a PD trademark now?

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Why don't you go try to wagon on someone else that isn't you because if all the cits see through you like I do, you will hang from the noose....WOLF.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
Slip-up concession????
[/B]

---

Obviously a typo, but then again you would latch onto anything to save your furry hide wouldn't you.

quote:

---

Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
What? How am I even remotely like PD? Because I made analysis in a game of werewolf? Is logic a PD trademark now?
[/B]

---

Its not a trademark, but you are using bad logic. It is clear that you are trying to deflect attention from the other wolf whoever that maybe.

quote:

---

Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
If I wanted to wagon, I would've just voted BernieB, or minimally, gone after someone easy like Liq or Bernek. Clearly, I'm trying to actually find a wolf and not just start random wagons. You, on the other hand, have done nothing but submit a nice retaliatory vote and insult me a few times. Quite useful. [/B]

---

Definitely makes a lot of sense (NOT), considering that I announced my suspicions of you before you posted that stuff about going after me. That definitely makes it me who is doing this in retaliation. *rolls eyes*. You aren't going to convince me out of lynching you this time around, unlike when they threw the last game by letting you live.

Also I like how you respond to everything I said except the PM, so why did you choose to ignore it?

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Obviously a typo, but then again you would latch onto anything to save your furry hide wouldn't you.

---

You know, I don't think this is a typo. I think you messed up. This happened TWICE last game - first when GLE accidentally said he knew XplicitR was a citizen, and second when Jaz slipped to PD that she knew he was a citizen. So, yes, I am going to latch on to this. You are a wolf and you have been caught.

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Its not a trademark, but you are using bad logic. It is clear that you are trying to deflect attention from the other wolf whoever that maybe.

---

So bad logic makes me PD? What are you even talking about?

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Definitely makes a lot of sense (NOT), considering that I announced my suspicions of you before you posted that stuff about going after me. That definitely makes it me who is doing this in retaliation. *rolls eyes*. You aren't going to convince me out of lynching you this time around, unlike when they threw the last game by letting you live.

---

You were quite off the radar until I called you out. Now, suddenly, you're going all fanatical on me. Over defensive, much?

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Also I like how you respond to everything I said except the PM, so why did you choose to ignore it?

---

You're right, I did gloss over the PM. To be fair, though, you completely glossed over ALL FOUR of my points and chose to respond with only an agitated set of jokes about me being "furry." My response to the PM? 1) You didn't plan to take out PD at that time, so you didnt' care 2) You thought it might get PD RFG'd 3) Double-bluff. Any one of those could be true.

You have a history of making nonsensical plays. Like outing Thanos as the seer and then VOTING FOR HIM ANYWAY. That's another strike against you. S

quote:

---

Originally posted by BernieB:
AlmasterGM was one of my suspicions too, so I have changed my vote to him.

---