quote:

---

Originally posted by Bernek77:
The thing is, it is mid way through the game and the wolves could be trying to get us to lynch a strong player. We made this mistake in an earlier game going with GLE and he turned out to be a villager. I would hate to make the same mistake again.

---

This doesn't make sense. If you are a wolf gunning for the top players, you do not leave people like PD and Liq alive. Liq, in particular, has attracted little suspicion thus far, so there's no reason fwy, Jaz, and ryan should've gone before him. This is not the wolf strat.

quote:

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Originally posted by ThoughtsofLepers:
50-70%:
AlmasterGM

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Why?

quote:

---

Originally posted by ThoughtsofLepers:
As for Liq, I seriously do think he was ballsy enough to accuse BoT in his first post. (And to include GLE in his top suspicions as well...Which is the only reason I'm more sure of Liq than GLE. *That* does seem like an unlikely thing for Liq to do if Liq and GLE are both wolves.)

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Wrong. Liq is not afraid to make ballsy moves. Neither is GLE. In fact, last round, GLE was very insistant that he suspect Jaz and I - and vice versa. I wouldn't be surprised at all if either, or both, of these players were wolves.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bernek77:
Stuff about PD.

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I believe PD. I don't believe you.

quote:

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Originally posted by ThoughtsofLepers:
IF Liq is a cit, there is NO reason for him to be alive, because he really hasn't garnered any suspicion until *this* round. In other words, the populace doesn't necessarily distrust Liq, therefore he would be a dangerous citizen for the wolves to leave alive.

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This only makes sense if the wolves are executing a "kill the top players" strategy. There are many reasons they would choose NOT to do this. 1) one or more wolves are top players - they need other people of their skill level alive to hide between 2) It's not proven to be more strategically effective 3) it makes the game less exciting 4) the top players are all totally off track. If ANY one of these (or another reason) is true, then Liq being alive is perfectly reasonable.

Also, just because someone is under heavy suspect does not make them invincible. Killing them can cause confusion, make things look like setups, and other such situations.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
No one has picked up on the fact that every time AGM plays this quiet of a game, he's been a wolf?

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This is my first round as a citizen playing this game. Seriously, go back and look - I was seer WW7 and a werewolf games 8 and 9. You have no evidence on which to make this comparison.

{SUMMARY: respond to Bernek, TOL, and MW. Talk about wolf behavior patterns}

{SUSPECT: GLE (prior reasons, both my own and others)}
{SUSPECT: Bernek77 (wild card)}

quote:

---

Originally posted by BernieB:
I am going to stick with Bernek as my main suspect and have AlmasterGM as the second.

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{SUMM: Asks Bernie if he is declaring a vote for Bernek or just a suspicion.}

code:

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Name : K1 : L1 : K2 : L2 : K3 : L3 : K4
 
GLE  : +1 : +2 : +1 : +2 : +1 : -1 : -1
PD   : +1 : -1 : +1 : +1 : -1 : -1 : -1
PGB  : +0 : +2 : +1 : +1 : -1 : +1 : +0
BB   : +0 : +1 : +1 : -1 : +1 : -1 : +1
ALM  : +0 : +2 : +0 : -1 : +0 : -1 : +1
MW   : -1 : +1 : -1 : +0 : +0 : -1 : +0
XPL  : -1 : +2 : -1 : +1 : +0 : -1 : +0
B77  : +0 : -1 : +1 : -1 : +1 : +1 : +1
TOL  : -1 : -1 : -1 : -1 : -1 : +1 : +0
FWYB : +0 : +1 : +0 : -1 : +0 : +1
BUG  : +0 : +1 : +2 : +1 : -1 : -1
THAN : +0 : -1 : +0 : +1
JACK : -1 : -1 : +0 : -1
JAZ  : +0 : -1
BOT  : +1 : +2

---

code:

---

Name  : TOT :   % :  K1 :  L1 :  K2 :  L2 :  K3 :  L3 :  K4
GLE   :  +5 : 50% :  +1 :  +2 :  +1 :  +2 :  +1 :  -1 :  -1
PGB   :  +4 : 48% :   0 :  +2 :  +1 :  +1 :  -1 :  +1 :   0
BB    :  +2 : 53% :   0 :  +1 :  +1 :  -1 :  +1 :  -1 :  +1
B77   :  +2 : 52% :   0 :  -1 :  +1 :  -1 :  +1 :  +1 :  +1
AGM   :  +1 : 55% :   0 :  +2 :   0 :  -1 :   0 :  -1 :  +1
XPR   :   0 : 52% :  -1 :  +2 :  -1 :  +1 :   0 :  -1 :   0
PD    :  -1 : 51% :  +1 :  -1 :  +1 :  +1 :  -1 :  -1 :  -1
MW    :  -2 : 54% :  -1 :  +1 :  -1 :   0 :   0 :  -1 :   0
TOL   :  -4 : 47% :  -1 :  -1 :  -1 :  -1 :  -1 :  +1 :   0
FWY   :  +1 : n/a :   0 :  +1 :   0 :  -1 :   0 :  +1
BUG   :  +2 : n/a :   0 :  +1 :  +2 :  +1 :  -1 :  -1
THA   :   0 : n/a :   0 :  -1 :   0 :  +1
JSP   :  -3 : n/a :  -1 :  -1 :   0 :  -1
JAZ   :  -1 : n/a :   0 :  -1
BOT   :  +3 : n/a :  +1 :  +2

---

What confuses me is there seems to be neither a direct nor an inverse relationship between the totals and the percentages. I know you said that you reversed the order of your suspicions, but that doesn't quite line up with the numbers here, even if I put them in reverse order.

Are these percentages strictly computational based on the variables or are there heuristics involved?

{SUMM: Asks Liq to help him understand the correlation of the variables to Liq's suspicion list.}

{VOTING: Bernek}

Where are your +1, +2, -1 even coming from? Are they based on anything?

Your suspicion list has AGM and myself at the top, despite the fact that we score near the bottom of your scoring sheet.

You put ToL at the very bottom of your list, because you "feel like he's a villager" ?? Your reasoning of "I can't see ToL being a wolf. But that's probably because he hasn't been a wolf in any previous game" is so ridiculous I'm pretty surprized it came from you. Clearly, past roles have absolutely no bearing on what he can or can't be on a game by game basis. You know he could be a wolf just as likely as any one in this game. That's just logic. P.S. I've never been a wolf either. And AGM seems to always be a wolf. Does that have any bearing? NO. The only thing I can think of is either you just had a brain-fart, or you're protecting a fellow wolf.

Furthermore, your reasoning for the top 3 suspects is basically that they have been "quiet". Here's the order of post count per round, from most quiet to least quiet.

BernieB 1.3
ThoughtsofLepers 2.5
AlmasterGM 2.8
Liq 3.3
MasterWolf 4.0
puregoblinboy47 4.0
GottaLoveElves 5.0
XplicitR 6.3
Bernek77 7.8
PlasteredDragon 21.3

If you notice, you have ToL at the bottom of your suspicions, despite the fact that you and him both are among the quietest players this round. Fishy, just fishy.

{SUSPECT: GLE, Bernek, Liq}
{VOTING: GLE}

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
I'm throwin the BS flag ALL over Liq's last post. What's the point of using some tracking/scoring system if you don't actually pay any attention to it?

Where are your +1, +2, -1 even coming from? Are they based on anything?

---

288. May-09 10:03 AM: Liq - Explains his use of variables and analysis. - (ref: GLE, PD, TOL)

quote:

---

Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Your suspicion list has AGM and myself at the top, despite the fact that we score near the bottom of your scoring sheet.

---

405. May-14 09:32 AM: Liq - Reversing suspicion list -- thinks he may be on wrong track. AGM, MW, BernieB top suspects. - (ref: AGM, Bernk, BernB, fwy, GLE, MW, PD, PGB, TOL, xplicit)

So I would expect at least to some degree an inverse relationship between the variables and the percentages. It doesn't quite jive directly or inversely tho, which is why I asked Liq to explain a little more. I wouldn't at all be surprised if he is applying some heuristics.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
You put ToL at the very bottom of your list, because you "feel like he's a villager" ?? Your reasoning of "I can't see ToL being a wolf. But that's probably because he hasn't been a wolf in any previous game" is so ridiculous I'm pretty surprized it came from you. Clearly, past roles have absolutely no bearing on what he can or can't be on a game by game basis. You know he could be a wolf just as likely as any one in this game. That's just logic.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Furthermore, your reasoning for the top 3 suspects is basically that they have been "quiet".

---

In my experiences playing with Liq it's nigh impossible to pin him down, so I wouldn't necessarily read too much in to a single post where he suddenly suspects someone new. His suspicion lists have oscillated vigorously since game start. I take that as a good sign--it looks like he is trying to make up his mind as opposed to looking for a wagon to ride. Of course this is Liq, he is a master, so he can look pretty much however he wants to look. He's on my radar, but nowhere near as suspicious to me as GLE.

For the record, I don't particularly suspect you at this time. You aren't setting off any alarm bells for me.

{SUMMARY: Re:MW#419 - commentary on Liq.}

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Are these percentages strictly computational based on the variables or are there heuristics involved?

---

I've already answered this.

quote:

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Originally posted by Liq:
Gut Feeling. Personal Opinion. Mafia Logic.

I reread the thread at the start of every round applying the knowledge gained from the previous round against each post existing so far. I then cap the suspicions at 55% (adjusting by gut feeling) due to the logic going too far in some cases. PD is a great example of this as his posting places him in the high 80's but I don't find him that suspicious. However I do find him to be slightly suspicious.

---

Its how suspicious each post has been. Depending on how likely that a wolf would make the post, it gets assigned a -1 if the post is not suspicious and a +1 if it is.

55% is the cap for my strictly theory based suspicion. Anything above that I have evidence to support the suspicion.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
What's the point of using some tracking/scoring system if you don't actually pay any attention to it?

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The system isn't set up for myself but rather so that every other player knows what level I suspect each other player.

quote:

---

Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Where are your +1, +2, -1 even coming from? Are they based on anything?

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It simply my gut feeling on whether this could have been a wolf move made by that player.

quote:

---

Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Clearly, past roles have absolutely no bearing on what he can or can't be on a game by game basis. You know he could be a wolf just as likely as any one in this game.

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His behaviour. Posting Style. Word Choice. Response Time.

All them have remained the same. The contents of each post and the package they're wrapped in haven't changed. This is what I'm refering to when I say I can't see him being a wolf.

On the same logic, he hasn't been a wolf in any previous game so no one knows how his mind works if he was wolf.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Your suspicion list has AGM and myself at the top, despite the fact that we score near the bottom of your scoring sheet.

Furthermore, your reasoning for the top 3 suspects is basically that they have been "quiet".

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Liq:
Currently I feel as I'm heading in the wrong direction so I've taken my suspicion list and inverted it. Leaving the two players I feel are villagers at the bottom of the list.

---

My reasoning was that because they haven't posted much, I haven't been able to get a solid picture of them. Thus resulting in the low level of suspicion. But as I've inverted my suspicion list, those 3 ended up on top.

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

I was not asking why he calculated the way he did, but rather why he would go to the effort of calculating based on some "strategy" or "Mafia Logic" and then DISREGARD the results. He's not following the numbers, and then he's also not following his suspicions, but rather taking all the data he's acquired and flipping it? I just don't understand that logic. Same as me saying "well, I think PGB and PD are cits... so I'm going to move them to the top of my suspicion list". I just don't understand the logic behind the move. I understand how he reached to the list he has, just not his thinking behind it.

The ToL explanation may be true, but I would have rather had him say it then you defend him.

And maybe what you say is true, he's hard to pin down, but that doesn't put me any more at ease. That just makes him more dangerous, IMO.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
You misunderstand...

---

{SUMM: Apologizes to MW for butting in.}

quote:

---

Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
Why?

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Well, it got you to post. You've been acting similar to how you've acted the past two games when you were a wolf. You are very quiet, and only come out and talk when someone mentions you. You've used this strategy very successfully (Even if you ALMOST bit the dust in endgame twice) the past 2 games. As of now the 50-70% just means I'm watching you and I intend to read WW7 again to see how you play a seer/citizen. You've gone down slightly in my suspicions since your post, though.

{SUSPECT: GLE, Liq, Bernek}
{VOTING: GLE}

PGB has been cleared in many of our eyes. And I believe in my heart he is also 100% a villager. However, he really has never been officially cleared by Thanos. Maybe that is why he targeted PGB?

Vote me like many of you want to. None of you believe anything I have to say. All of you have me a top of your lists. Make the better play in the long run. GLE is a much better player then me. Do yourselves a favor. Don't give in to the Wolves play and get rid of one of the top tier players!

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

His suspicion of PGB appears to be unwarranted.

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

quote:

---

Originally posted by Liq:
Voting Bernie.

His suspicion of PGB appears to be unwarranted.

---

Hey Liq Where does Bernie declare suspicion on PGB.

This post strikes me odd???

Maybe odd enough to change my mind!

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bernek77:
I'd rather have GLE in this game then me. Change your vote to me. When I turn out to be a villager maybe the rest of you will change your mind towards him. It was a race between Bugger and I. Make me the new target. I whole heartedly believe the GLE is a villager and suggest that PD an Liq are more of better targets. All of you are shooting down his Ideas and motives and not even considering what he said. Why is everything PD says is GOLD! PD speaks very well and by no means is nothing less than intelligent.

PGB has been cleared in many of our eyes. And I believe in my heart he is also 100% a villager. However, he really has never been officially cleared by Thanos. Maybe that is why he targeted PGB?

Vote me like many of you want to. None of you believe anything I have to say. All of you have me a top of your lists. Make the better play in the long run. GLE is a much better player then me. Do yourselves a favor. Don't give in to the Wolves play and get rid of one of the top tier players!

---

Unless... you know GLE is dying now and you'd rather look like a confused cit than a loyal wolf.

Either way I'n not convinced. I love you but I don't think you have a leg to stand on here. The case against GLE is strong. If I'm wrong at least I'll have been wrong for a good reason rather than a scattered mishmash of meandering self-contradiction.

{SUMMARY: Commenting on Bernek's post.}

quote:

---

Originally posted by Liq:
Voting Bernie.

His suspicion of PGB appears to be unwarranted.

---

I've been pretty consistent suspecting Bernek. My last post was this morning:

quote:

---

Originally posted by BernieB:
I've been pretty consistent suspecting Bernek. My last post was this morning:

{SUSPECT: Bernek77 AlmasterGM)}
{VOTING: Bernek}

---

Given that it is 11:22 PM I'd say it's a fair bet we are not going to get results until tomorrow night, because I'm pretty sure MM works on Saturdays.

Stay tuned.

{SUMM: Minor clarification on tags. Probably going to have to wait another day for the voting results.}

ROUND 4 VOTES:

GottaLoveElves - 5 votes from AlmasterGM [1], MasterWolf [2], PlasteredDragon [3], ThoughtsofLepers [2], XplicitR [4] - 1: prior reasons, both my own and others, 2: not stated, 3: multiple reasons, 4: very suspicious
Bernek77 - 1 votes from BernieB [1] - 1: not stated
BernieB - 1 votes from Liq [1] - 1: suspicion of PGB unwarranted
PlasteredDragon - 1 votes from Bernek77 [1] - 1: similarities to WW3-2 and WW7

No votes declared from: GottaLoveElves, puregoblinboy47

It's interesting that PGB hasn't declared. Perhaps he is conflicted and not sure where to vote. Given he is our only confirmed cit, it would be nice to get his opinion.

PlasteredDragon ~ GLE (1)
GLE ~ PD (1)
Masterwolf ~ GLE 2
BernieB ~ Bernek (1)
AlmasterGM ~ GLE (3)
XplicitR ~ GLE (4)
PGB ~ GLE (5)
Liq ~ BernieB (1)
ThoughtsofLepers GLE (6)
Bernek77 ~ PD (2)

GLE, yet another villager, has been wrongfully lynched.

Those with special roles, pm me your targets.

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 9!][My Brute!]

quote:

---

Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
Players ~ Their vote

PlasteredDragon ~ GLE (1)
GLE ~ PD (1)
Masterwolf ~ GLE 2
BernieB ~ Bernek (1)
AlmasterGM ~ GLE (3)
XplicitR ~ GLE (4)
PGB ~ GLE (5)
Liq ~ BernieB (1)
ThoughtsofLepers GLE (6)
Bernek77 ~ PD (5)

GLE, yet another villager, has been wrongfully lynched.

Those with special roles, pm me your targets.

~MM

---

UGH! :SIGH:

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

---

Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
GLE, yet another villager, has been wrongfully lynched.

---

Well we have two more lynches yet--the important thing is not to lose hope.

I've been too busy to post today--preparing for my big shoot tomorrow--had to get tethered shooting and my portrait strobes sorted today. Tomorrow is shooting day, I'll be fully occupied from about 6 AM to about 11 PM so I don't expect to be posting tomorrow either.

Over the coming weeks I'll be doing a lot of post processing, so my posting will be at a minimum. And given how far off base I was with GLE that's probably a good thing--at this point anything I contribute will be either highly suspect or possibly detrimental.

You guys can lynch me if you want, but I guarantee I'm a cit and it will be another wasted lynch. I'll try to have some analysis Monday morning. Hopefully we'll have the kill by then.

{SUMMARY: Disappointed in outcome of lynch. Very busy over coming weeks.}

Villager's, your votes are due Wednesday night.

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 9!][My Brute!]