~MM

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A flashing neon sign and you didn't save Thanos?

Pretty slick.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Smoking good job Angel.

A flashing neon sign and you didn't save Thanos?

Pretty slick.

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quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Smoking good job Angel.

A flashing neon sign and you didn't save Thanos?

Pretty slick.

{SUMMARY: utter disbelief.}

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What he said.

Analysis and psychograph to come sometime tomorrow, when I will no longer be so mad I can hardly think clearly.

Nearly all of us knew Thanos had a role, and the code phrases he dropped in the first round generally mean SEER. I figured he was the seer and it's why I was assuaging Bernek to stop getting so upset about XPR's musings since, given that the wolves had such an obvious target they were bound to go after Thanos sooner or later and all the angel had to do was keep protecting Thanos until Thanos revealed, which would probably have been R3 or R4. It's precisely why the wolves didn't kill Thanos R1 because they figured the angel had him.

I haven't gone back to check and see if Thanos editted any of his posts to leave clues for us--it doesn't sound like the sort of thing he would think of anyway, but for those who want to check:

044. Apr-28 01:34 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
045. Apr-28 01:35 PM: banter - (ref: MW)
084. May-02 05:47 AM: Re: PGB#81 - Love you too PGB. Will post later. - (ref: PGB)
089. May-02 09:39 AM: This is a new game. What does the last game have to do with it? - (ref: Bug)
093. May-02 10:51 AM: Better to vote someone suspicious rather than someone who made a bad call. Voting BOT. - (ref: BOT)
100. May-03 05:59 AM: I strongly suggest you don't vote for me. - (ref: nobody)
105. May-03 11:14 AM: Suggests votes move off him. Thinks Bugger's doing the same thing he did. - (ref: Bug)
123. May-03 03:26 PM: Voting BOT, think it's silly for people to vote based on past performance. - (ref: BOT)
137. May-04 08:10 AM: Re: PGB#129 - you must have me confused with someone else - (ref: PGB)
217. May-06 06:19 PM: Votes JSP, trusts PGB, suspects GLE. Will post more later. - (ref: GLE, Jack, PGB)
239. May-07 02:11 PM: PD, please post tally? - (ref: PD)
245. May-07 03:23 PM: Thank you PD, submitted for JackSpade - (ref: Jack, PD)
267. May-08 01:03 PM: Teases Bernek. - (ref: Bernk)
278. May-08 06:33 PM: agrees with PD - (ref: PD)

At this point it shouldn't take long for the wolves to figure out who the angel is, so we should expect to be without him in very short order, I'd say R3N or R4N... unless he gets himself lynched beforehand. So we should expect that and be prepared to deal with it.

But we shouldn't lose hope, yes they got our strongest piece, but we got theirs too--bought ourselves an extra round. Also, the quality of the angel's play can help eliminate certain players as the angel (nobody list aloud who they think the angel is or is not)--it's something we should keep in mind when picking our suspects.

The other thing is the wolves had to try for Thanos since he gave the seer signal, even though Thanos was in the R1-BOT pile. At this point the BOT pile is only 3 players. We could still burn through the whole pile. I'm a cit, which means there are only 2 choices left in that pile: Bernek and TOL.

Bernek suggested (#162) that people named by BOT are probably innocent. To which I say *BS*, anyone BOT casts suspicion on could also be a wolf. BOT referred to a grand total of 4 other players: Liq, PD, Thanos, TOL.

Three of these players are BOT voters. Liq switched away from BoT as the pile on him grew, and felt the need to explain why even though nobody asked. Then there's me, and well, I know I'm a cit, you can draw your own conclusions there. And there's also TOL--third in the BOT pile.

BOT never mentioned Bernek, and Bernek was the last in the BOT pile. Bernek and TOL both have called attn to XPR whom has appeared to have been set up by the wolves.

There's definitely things to suspect on both Bernek and TOL. {SUSPECT: TOL,Bernek (BOT voter, pursuing XPR)}

My suspect list is getting too long. I need to think some more. Hopefully I will have some better ideas in the morning.

Players I would like to hear from:
* Bernek - do you think a wolf voted for BOT? Why or why not?
* TOL - same question. Why or why not?
* GLE - same question. Why or why not?
* XPR - same question. Why or why not?

{SUMM: Initial thoughts on wolf kill.}

IMO there were bigger fish to fry than JSP but you all were so savage to go after him, only on his newbish behavior that was possibly been led by a smarter wolf.

This is the same thing that was brought up last game.

In recent games the Seer was shredded and bugger's response was far more explosive than this one:

"Analysis and psychograph to come sometime tomorrow, when I will no longer be so mad I can hardly think clearly."

Again ooc

With Thanos giving PD +1 on his post, makes me wonder if he knew something. Or even what that means lol

"But we shouldn't lose hope, yes they got our strongest piece, but we got theirs too, bought ourselves an extra round."

not a true statement as I said earlier: the lead wolf is only the person who relays the shred to MM he or she is not the brains. there are more experienced players than BoT left in this game. You should know this

And:

"I'm a cit, which means there are only 2 choices left in that pile: Bernek and TOL."

As a Cit myself, this remains to be seen... Though I do suspect B77.

"BOT never mentioned Bernek, and Bernek was the last in the BOT pile. Bernek and TOL both have called attn to XPR whom has appeared to have been set up by the wolves."
I can agree with this.

quote:

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Currently Voting :
 
• GottaLoveElves

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quote:

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Suspicion List :
 
• High :

  55% : GottaLoveElves
  53% : Bugger
   

• Mid :

  52% : PlasteredDragon
  52% : puregoblinboy47
  52% : BernieB
  52% : AlmasterGM
  51% : Masterwolf
  51% : XplicitR
  51% : Bernek77
  50% : fwybwed
   

• Low :

  45% : ThoughtsofLepers

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quote:

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Variables :

+2 : Likely to have Ryan Killed
-1 : Not Likely to have Ryan Killed
+2 : Likely to have Jaz Killed
-1 : Not Likely to have Jaz Killed
+1 : Likely to have Thanos Killed
-1 : Not Likely to have Thanos Killed
-1 : Voting BoT
+3 : Highly Suspicious Post
+2 : Suspicious Post
+1 : Possibly Suspicious Post
-1 : Not Suspicious Post

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__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

quote:

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Originally posted by Liq:
+2 : Likely to have Ryan Killed
-1 : Not Likely to have Ryan Killed
+2 : Likely to have Jaz Killed
-1 : Not Likely to have Jaz Killed
+1 : Likely to have Thanos Killed
-1 : Not Likely to have Thanos Killed
-1 : Voting BoT
+3 : Highly Suspicious Post
+2 : Suspicious Post
+1 : Possibly Suspicious Post
-1 : Not Suspicious Post

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Your rolled up percentages don't show which variables applied to each player--could you break them down?

Specifically can you explain why TOL is at 45% and why GLE is at the top?

{SUMMARY: Intrigued. Would like to know more about Liq's variables.}

If he did it would have to be after post #187 which started round 2.

I have checked his old posts and think we can safely say that Thanos' first name was the person who so vigorously attacked him in R1 (makes sense)--and despite that vigorous attack Thanos claimed to trust that person after round 2 began: #217

So that's a question mark taken off the list. Unless you think that was just idle musing from Thanos as opposed to a tell. I think it was a tell.

Which brings me to this:

100. May-03 05:59 AM: Thanos - I strongly suggest you don't vote for me. [SEER] - (ref: nobody)
123. May-03 03:26 PM: Thanos - Voting BOT, think it's silly for people to vote based on past performance. "Let me stay a couple rounds" [SEER] - (ref: BOT)
173. May-05 07:57 AM: GottaLoveElves - Thanos vote now great idea. Softens stance on PD. XPR a cipher. PM issue is pretty minor. - (ref: BOT, GLE, PD, Tnos, xplicit)

After 2 seer hints GLE still thinks a Thanos vote is a "great idea"? Given the clue Thanos gave us, there is now only one strong Thanos voter? {VOTING: GLE (top tier player wants to vote seer)}

Then there's this:

150. May-04 03:45 PM: GottaLoveElves - Thinks PD's rhyming is a "scheme". - (ref: PD, Tnos)
151. May-04 03:48 PM: GottaLoveElves - Thinks fwyb is a cit. - (ref: fwy, PD)

My foray into creative posting was suspicious but fwy's was exonerating? Would GLE as a wolf go so far as to point out one of his compadres and say "I think this dude is a cit?" {SUSPECT: fwy (trusted by GLE)}

I'm going to retract my suspicions of Bernek and TOL (for now), until we know more about GLE/FWY. {TRUST: Bernek,TOL (For now; GLE & FWY more suspicious)}

Oh and obviously {TRUST: PGB (cleared by seer - moved to cit group)}.

I'd like to hear from fwy at this time. Fwy, what do you think of GLE apparently missing 2 (and perhaps more) known seer codes? Do you suspect GLE? Why or why not?

{SUMMARY: Seer cleared PGB. Voting GLE, suspect FWY. Withdraws suspicions of Bernek & TOL. Calls out FWY.}

I think we have either 2 tier 2 wolves or a tier 2 leader calling the kills. The only common vein to be discerned by the kill pattern is a somewhat clumsy attempt at framing people: ryan and Jaz yell at XPR, they are both killed. But when the possibility of XPR becoming framed is given serious discussion, the point is essentially dropped as far as kills go. I think we may have a tier 2 wolf trying to frame GLE now- while his vote for the seer is damning, it seems to easy. Unless he is trying a double-bluff? Possibly, but that would require taking the risk that the angel is protecting thanos- and if GLE were a wolf, he'd have to be guessing thanos was the seer. If he were a cit? Not nessecarily. So I don't think Thanos was killed for being the seer- had that happened the wolves would have tried last round.

In fact, the theory that they are trying to frame people is granted more weight by the thanos kill- it's clear they had no issue with trying to kill him, but obviously eliminating a possible special role fell lower on the rank of importance for them. While some clumsy attempts at herding smack of a less experienced wolf, the choosing of Jaz over a stronger player who also was ****ing of XPR (like PD) smacks of a stronger player, one who isn't as threatened by strong cits (assuming PD is a cit, which I more or less do at this point for reasons previously stated).

So, to recap: I suspect we have either 2 lower-tier wolves or 1 strong one and 1 lower-tier one with the tier2 one as leader (thus calling the shot WRT the kill). In both instances I feel players in the middle of the road skill-wise deserve greater attention: people like MasterWolf, Bernek, AGM, and Fwybwed (I'm excluding XPR for now because he doesn't fit this psychograph at all, but may require visitation later).

I have to run now and will try to be back today to wrap up my analysis, using more attention to piles et al, but as my schedule has suddenly filled up it may not be possible and may come late tonight or more likely tomorrow.

Voting Bernek

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
By what yardstick do you make such assessments? Or is it just personal opinion?

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Gut Feeling. Personal Opinion. Mafia Logic.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Your rolled up percentages don't show which variables applied to each player--could you break them down?

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The following is the base suspicion level based on my Mafia Logic.

code:

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Name : Ryan : Jaz : Than
 
GLE  : +2   : +2  : +1
BUG  : +0   : +2  : -1
PD   : +2   : +2  : -1
PGB  : +0   : +2  : -1
BB   : +0   : +2  : +1
ALM  : +0   : +0  : +0
MW   : -1   : -1  : +0
XPL  : -1   : -1  : +0
B77  : +0   : +2  : +1
FWYB : +0   : +0  : +0
TOL  : -1   : -1  : -1
THAN : +0   : +0
JACK : -1   : +0
JAZ  : +0
BOT  : +2

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I reread the thread at the start of every round applying the knowledge gained from the previous round against each post existing so far. I then cap the suspicions at 55% (adjusting by gut feeling) due to the logic going too far in some cases. PD is a great example of this as his posting places him in the high 80's but I don't find him that suspicious. However I do find him to be slightly suspicious.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Specifically can you explain why TOL is at 45% and why GLE is at the top?

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Late night so I wasn't about to reread the thread. Took the last figures I had and readjusted them in respect to both the Lynch and the Kill. As it stands, I find GLE likely to have supported the kills if he was a werewolf. In the same light, I don't see ToL supporting any of the kills if he was a werewolf.

I'll have new suspicion level list up tonight when I have the time.

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

So, the next question that's been brought up by some of the heavier players: why was I so focused on Thanos in voting?
Consider this; on some levels, most players use my opinions as a yardstick. Suspicious or no, they generally want to know where I'm leaning and why, and my instincts usually hold at least a little sway. I'm going to say now what I haven't been able to say; the only good read I've had in this game so far since R1 was that Thanos was the seer. This post in particular:

quote:

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Originally posted by Thanos:
*sigh*

I strongly suggest that you don't vote for me.

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is exactly what I expected a seasoned player in WW8-ToL's shoes (first round seer facing the gallows) to say, and IMO, it was a great way of dealing with the situation. I'll admit that I had it in the back of my mind that it could be a double bluff, but the Thanos-as-seer scenario seemed so much more likely than Thanos making such a good play as a wolf.
Think about the language I was using when talking about Thanos, as well:

quote:

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
I have to agree with everyone for the most part; when I'm a wolf, it's always a point that Thanos stays alive

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Although I didn't have Thanos as a definite seer at that point, as it became more apparent, I really stuck with that type of thinking and a direct intent on lynching Thanos and saying that that's how I'd deal with Thanos as a wolf.

What I'm building to here, I was kinda hoping that the wolves would think that my suspicion of Thanos had the potential of getting him hung with a little help from a vocal one of them, and it was somewhat of a draw play. Had any substantial kind of wagon formed, I would've been off the Thanos wagon ASAP, and had a strong read on whoever had first joined in to help me.
In essence, I was hoping to bait wolves, with the secondary goal of trying to keep them off of his trail. Obviously, these two directives weren't that successful.

Meanwhile:

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Players I would like to hear from:
* Bernek - do you think a wolf voted for BOT? Why or why not?
...
* GLE - same question. Why or why not??

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I've been wrestling with this for a round now. I'd been thinking last round to suggest that the seer focus his energies on the BoT pile while we work at the rest. With Jack about to be hit and me thinking Thanos was the seer, that would've left three names for him to check (supposing he hadn't checked one already). It was a nice idea, but there was no way to really come out and say that without saying that I thought the seer to be in that pile, so I passed off on suggesting it.
Bernek's late declaration on BoT has me wondering, and he's been touchy this game, even for Bernek. But, that temper means that I have a really hard time reading him most of the time, and my read on him this game is pretty murky/in the air.
ToL has struck me as a good thinker, and his performance thus far has struck me as what a decent wolf would play. I'll liken it to WW4 & WW5 for me; I learned pretty quickly after making my role painfully obvious in 4 how I should handle it, and I think most of you will agree that in 5 I handled myself much better. Take ToL's performance in 8; he was the seer but he still learned pretty quick how to get on the wrong end of a lynching, and with some support this game, I think a wolfy ToL would make a much better role concealer.
Jazaray would be somewhat likely if we can find sufficient evidence (picking off Thanos aside) of an experienced wolf. I've actually been thinking; I said that a likely wolf would be late on the BoT wagon, but perhaps an experienced wolf would be likely early: get an early vote in the game for BoT, and when he gets uncovered later, you'll look good. But when the BoT wagon formed, someone who went back on their vote (see: Jaz) would look horrible when he was found out, so perhaps a wolf trying to plan for the later game had an early hand in the demise of the leader by saying something they couldn't take back. Not an excessively likely scenario, but it's not one I'm willing to discount.
Between those three cases, I feel that the BoT pile certainly warrants investigation; I can paint all of those players as a wolf without a hell of a lot to counteract it. I don't want to say for sure that there's a canine there, but I'll give the answer of "probably", and hope that's sufficient.

quote:

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
I'm going to start right off the top: if I were a wolf, do you really think I'd have missed Thanos' hints and let him live until R2N? I pinged TMB when the hints were much, much subtler than that in WWV.

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And secondly, and more to the point GLE, YES. I do think you would have let him live until R2N. You're not stupid--the hints were so obvious any wolf worth his salt would assume the angel was going to protect Thanos R1N. In TMB's case the hints were so subtle it was unlikely the angel had spotted them--this was different.

So clearly, to avoid the save, the wolves had to waste someone else. That's EXACTLY what I would do if I were a wolf. Wolves and angels play games of second-guessing all the time. The angel must try to figure out who the wolves are most likely to kill, and the wolves must try to second-guess the angel so as to avoid a save.

Figuring on PGB as Thanos' likely R1N target, you could afford to wait anyway. But there was the chance that the angel would just stick with Thanos over and over again. The only hope would be to try to trick the angel into thinking Thanos might instead by a wolf. Not going for Thanos R1N helps, but if the angel were experienced he'd probably expecting such a play. But having am influential player come out and say "I think a Thanos lynch is a good idea" might very well make the angel wonder if he made a mistake.

Your claim now is that you were trying to bait the wolves into coming out and voting for Thanos. I suppose that might have worked if there were no strong wolves to prevent that from happening.

But right now I don't really think you were baiting the wolves, I think you were baiting the cits. After the big pile on Thanos in R1 you probably figured it was worth it to see if that pile could be reformed--and if not maybe at least the angel would begin to doubt Thanos' nature.

In either case, I think that when Thanos listed you as his suspect in the same post where he cleared PGB, you couldn't afford to wait beyond R2N... making an attempt on him was a risk that had to be taken. If he survived R2N he would know your nature.

Had you been interested in baiting the wolves, you should have been acting like *YOU* were the angel, so as to get them to try for you instead of Thanos--like I tried to last round. They didn't take the bait. They're smart.

I'm not in agreement with with Bugger's thesis that the wolves are middle-tier players. I think there's a strong player among their ranks, given what I've seen you are a pretty good bet.

{SUMMARY: Responds to GLE, unconvinced.}

quote:

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PD.
I'd like to hear from fwy at this time. Fwy, what do you think of GLE apparently missing 2 (and perhaps more) known seer codes? Do you suspect GLE? Why or why not?

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I suspect many people... but one thing for sure is the the Thanos pile was for sure to be looked at. IMO the ww's knew the Thanos pile would have been a sure place to hide until close to the end of the round, some switched votes or voted late in specific piles.
In regards GLE suspecting Thanos...Hell I was beginning to doubt him to. His play style this game is not consistant and when he came out as he did it was only because he was on the ropes. Thanos has dug himself a hole in regards to his playing the game. I knew with out a doubt he had a role but what role was yet to be determined.
Do I suspect GLE, yes but he is not at the top of my list. B77 and Bugger are.

I see your suspicion of GLE and his direction, but that is weak. Thanos suspects him and trusts PGB...Im sure one of this is true but not both. Im going to with trusting PGB but Im not gonna put my much needed vote to someone I have no real information on.

I hope this answers your question and gets you some info.

But now you have to answer mine.

You were so sure of a suspect been in the Bot pile, but now you have disregarded your suspicion of B77 and ToL, without even hearing from the people you had asked to hear from. Why is this?

What are your thoughts on Bugger questioning the Bot Voters and the pile that was forming on him?

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
[First of all are you making the "if I were a wolf I would never do this" argument? Because that is what it sounds like to me.

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I didn't say that.
I asked if you honestly thought I'd make that play. If you think the answer is yes, then my argument has no bearing. I'm not claiming innocence, just asking you to evaluate it from that perspective.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
And secondly, and more to the point GLE, YES. I do think you would have let him live until R2N. You're not stupid--the hints were so obvious any wolf worth his salt would assume the angel was going to protect Thanos R1N. In TMB's case the hints were so subtle it was unlikely the angel had spotted them--this was different.

So clearly, to avoid the save, the wolves had to waste someone else. That's EXACTLY what I would do if I were a wolf. Wolves and angels play games of second-guessing all the time. The angel must try to figure out who the wolves are most likely to kill, and the wolves must try to second-guess the angel so as to avoid a save.

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Hardly. As a wolf, regardless of whether you think the angel knows who the seer is too, you want the seer dead. That, above all, is a wolf's goal, and it's my goal when I am a wolf.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
In either case, I think that when Thanos listed you as his suspect in the same post where he cleared PGB, you couldn't afford to wait beyond R2N... making an attempt on him was a risk that had to be taken. If he survived R2N he would know your nature.

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(I'll give you the credit of not seeing this, because we haven't played together as wolves.)
You can ask Jazaray, AGM, Montague & fwybwed: I play the wolf side assuming that a surviving seer will know my role. I constantly try and get the other two separated from me in every way possible. A wolfy GLE will never be intimidated by a seer who might know who he is, a wolfy GLE assumes that the seer knows who he is and tries to twist that disadvantage into an advantage in every way possible. On that basis, the idea that I "couldn't afford to wait" is just not valid.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Had you been interested in baiting the wolves, you should have been acting like *YOU* were the angel, so as to get them to try for you instead of Thanos--like I tried to last round. They didn't take the bait. They're smart.

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(I assume you mean the seer)
Not that that's a bad idea, but I'm working on another level--I'm sure you've noticed that this game changes pretty darn frequently, and being a meta player on either side of the coin requires innovation. You said yourself that the wolves last game were smarter than to fall for it from you--why would something that failed last game succeed this time?

Anyways.
I've had to re-evaluate the psychograph yet again since this morning; the one I posted earlier was without any real data within my grasp. Furthermore I failed to take into account one other speedbump in the way of an accurate wolf profile: The lynch of BoT in R1. The psychograph by its very nature describes the lead wolf best, and that's an entire round gone of now-useless strategy. We can theorize about their plan before his lynch, but afterwards it's anyones guess. So the bottom line here is that I'm not really happy that my conclusions are not going to be as strong as they usually are at this point in the game (ironic isn't it that a wolf lynch ruins my pattern for finding wolves :/ ).

Okay, here's what we have to go with. A kill of Jazaray (BoT voter, yelled at XPR) R1N. A kill of Thanos (seer, quiet) R2N. A possibly influenced lynch of JackSpade R2D.
So it depends on the nature of the wolves as to where they may have went and why. I think R1 they probably went with a standard coordination either by BoT's choice or simple default. One voted for him, another either scattered or voted with him, and he voted for the counterwagon. In the second round? They could have stuck with the same kind of basic movement (one in the lynch pile, one without), or if they felt the need to shake it up a bit they would branch out. I find this second scenario to be the most likely. After hearing people conclude that the wolves probably moved in a standard pattern R1, they most certainly would then make sure to not move in a standard pattern R2- whether or not they did in R1. Had they voted predictably R1 they wouldn't want to make that mistake again, and if they hadn't? Well, all the better for them, and if they let the cits think otherwise and kept playing unconventionally, they would get less suspicion together. So I doubt there were any wolves in the JackSpade pile, or at maximum 1. I say at maximum because I'd imagine they are at least trying to play defensively first WRT votes, and not jump around too much there.
So there are 7 non-Jack voters around: GLE, Bernek, Fwybwed, AGM, BernieB, ToL, Masterwolf.

Of this seven: Thus far, these are the people I have noted as performing suspicious behavior, whether it be OOC play or simply befuddling posts:
-Bernek77: He has been more quiet than usual when it comes to finding wolves, and about half of his activity has been to scream at people for talking about things he doesn't want them to talk about. He certainly seems much more jumpy than usual, even for him.
-GottaLoveElves: GLE's been quieter than usual this game, and much less opinionated as well. His defense WRT PD's recent pushing is a solid one, but contains some things that make me question his role. At one point in particular he gives a politician's answer to PD's question by claiming he wanted to try to get the seer to scope out the BoT pile. While this explains his avoidance of the pile, it's far more wishy-washy and indecisive a response than I'd expect from one as experienced as him. This is the main thing: He draws up a strategy for R1, trying to get people off Thanos, but he can't puzzle out how to do something (if not easier, at least certainly not harder than) akin to what he said in his answer? I find it hard to believe he'd be as rudderless as he claims.

So, as you can probably guess, my suspicions now lie with GLE and Bernek.

These two fit the psychograph standard of 1 tier one player and 1 tier two player.

Nuts, I have to go. I'll try to finish this up/polish any statements I may have made here in my rush tonight when I get home.

Look IMO I do not think there was a wolf in the BoT pile. After a few deaths in that pile that it would be revisited. So I urge that if you really think there is a wolf in that pile then start with me.

By voting me you will find out I'm a villager, and you won't all have to deal with my anger. Again, had not the chatter kept up by xplicitr and Bugger in regards to Thanos's special role I would not have been heated.

It should not have to take PD to announce to people do not talk about who we think the Angel is.

After Thanos dropped the hint that led me to believe he was the seer, and the wolves killed Jaz. I felt a though we caught a break and the Angel would just keep saving him as he gathered names until the angel was killed then Thanos could come out with what he knows. I do have a right to be upset as a villager.

I still am sticking with Xplicitr as I am not sold on the innocence of the argument between him and Bugger. I feel between the 2 of them there is at least 1 wolf if not 2.

I feel there is 1 inexperienced wolf and 1 middle tier wolf. Both fit my suspicion.

Voting Xplicitr.

However, if the group decides to go after the BoT pile then vote me first to get my innocence out there and maybe someone would like to maybe hear what I have said up to that point.

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bernek77:
I am upset due to the fact that people kept talking about Thanos's role. I a very good suspicion that he was the Seer. Low and behold I was correct. Why didn't the Angel protect him? This is something that definitely should be revisited after this game.

Look IMO I do not think there was a wolf in the BoT pile. After a few deaths in that pile that it would be revisited. So I urge that if you really think there is a wolf in that pile then start with me.

By voting me you will find out I'm a villager, and you won't all have to deal with my anger. Again, had not the chatter kept up by xplicitr and Bugger in regards to Thanos's special role I would not have been heated.

It should not have to take PD to announce to people do not talk about who we think the Angel is.

After Thanos dropped the hint that led me to believe he was the seer, and the wolves killed Jaz. I felt a though we caught a break and the Angel would just keep saving him as he gathered names until the angel was killed then Thanos could come out with what he knows. I do have a right to be upset as a villager.

I still am sticking with Xplicitr as I am not sold on the innocence of the argument between him and Bugger. I feel between the 2 of them there is at least 1 wolf if not 2.

I feel there is 1 inexperienced wolf and 1 middle tier wolf. Both fit my suspicion.

Voting Xplicitr.

However, if the group decides to go after the BoT pile then vote me first to get my innocence out there and maybe someone would like to maybe hear what I have said up to that point.

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Bernek, some of what you just said has my alarms screaming. I have to run now but will finish this thought tonight.

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
...You were so sure of a suspect been in the Bot pile, but now you have disregarded your suspicion of B77 and ToL, without even hearing from the people you had asked to hear from. Why is this?...

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So I hit upon his hint about PGB, leaving GLE the only luminary in the Thanos pile. And that's when I suddenly remembered that GLE called for Thanos to be lynched even after he had dropped his signals. (And in fact went on to actually vote for him in R2--which certainly wasn't necessary to "bait" wolves. And went so far as to say he wasn't going to declare his vote--how do you bait somebody by not saying who you are voting for?)

If TOL & GLE were wolves it would be weird for TOL to point out something XPR did which was exactly like what GLE did. Also TOL was pretty early on the BOT bandwagon. It just seems pretty unlikely he'd be a wolf.

Which leaves Bernek, who's playstyle seems pretty much in character to me.

This led me to wonder if maybe I haven't been wrong about the BOT pile all along. Instead a wolf might have joined BOT in the Thanos pile in an attempt to save BOT, and the other may have made for the Random or AGM piles R1.

What I found out about GLE seemed (a) a lot stronger than anything I had on TOL or B77 and (b) incongruent with the games those players are playing. So I temporarily withdrew my suspicions.

The short answer is: I hit upon something that seemed a better lead. In the parlance of computer science, I pruned my search tree. When a computer that does a complex many-directioned task, like playing chess, there are certain moves which obviously lead to less desirable outcomes, so there is no reason to compute all the way down those paths and see what all the possible outcomes are... instead those branches of the search tree are "pruned" in favor of finding a better outcome more rapidly.

The GLE lead seems stronger to me. If it doesn't pan out then I will have to go back and take stock of what appear to be weaker leads to me--like Bernek having his little tirades. Bernek ALWAYS has little tirades--it doesn't stand as a strong indication of anything. How often does a player with the perceptive skills of GLE miss gruesomely obvious tells? He managed to zero in on TMB in WW5 when the rest of us were oblivious to the tells TMB made. That's a far rarer thing then Bernek going bonkers.

GLE knows this, which is why he has explained it as he didn't miss the tells at all but wanted to bait the wolves, but that's not quite congruent with his actions that round (such as refusing to declare.) I don't buy it. Maybe that's just me being paranoid, but I don't think so.

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
...What are your thoughts on Bugger questioning the Bot Voters and the pile that was forming on him?...

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{SUMMARY: responds to fwy - GLE is stronger lead than TOL, B77 or BUG.}

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
So I hit upon his hint about PGB, leaving GLE the only luminary in the Thanos pile. And that's when I suddenly remembered that GLE called for Thanos to be lynched even after he had dropped his signals. (And in fact went on to actually vote for him in R2--which certainly wasn't necessary to "bait" wolves. And went so far as to say he wasn't going to declare his vote--how do you bait somebody by not saying who you are voting for?)

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If I'm trying to convince wolves that my citizen instinct is telling me Thanos is a wolf, why will I say I want to vote for him, not declare and then vote someone else?
Citizens' votes are tallied at the end of R2D.
Wolves make their kill R2N.
If they see I voted someone else, maybe a wolf thinks I've given up the chase, and realizes that they'll have to kill Thanos themselves to see if he's the seer.

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
Hardly. As a wolf, regardless of whether you think the angel knows who the seer is too, you want the seer dead. That, above all, is a wolf's goal, and it's my goal when I am a wolf.

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
(I assume you mean the seer)

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Why would I try to convince them *I* was the seer? They'd never buy it. They know something us cits don't--they *know* Thanos is a cit. The only reason for a cit to drop seer hints is to either bait the wolves or keep the cits from lynching him. When Thanos announced his trust of PGB, any doubt in the wolves' minds would be erased. Since they know he's the seer, my only hope of baiting them is to make them think I was the angel, so that they would try for me instead, giving us a save and another round to find them. They didn't fall for it.

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
Not that that's a bad idea, but I'm working on another level--I'm sure you've noticed that this game changes pretty darn frequently, and being a meta player on either side of the coin requires innovation. You said yourself that the wolves last game were smarter than to fall for it from you--why would something that failed last game succeed this time?

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
Citizens' votes are tallied at the end of R2D.
Wolves make their kill R2N.
If they see I voted someone else, maybe a wolf thinks I've given up the chase, and realizes that they'll have to kill Thanos themselves to see if he's the seer.

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{VOTING: GLE (self contradictory argument)}
{SUMMARY: GLE's argument self-contradictory.}

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Originally posted by Bernek77:
...Voting Xplicitr...

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