If I point out where I think you are making an egregious error, the appropriate response is a sincere thank you. It's okay to disagree with anyone's critique, but you treat all critique's as personal insults, which is what I meant earlier when I cautioned that you play with a chip on your shoulder.

We're all friends here. If I think you made a bad play and I tell you so, I'm doing you a favor.

You're welcome.

EDIT: Regarding Thanos, yes he was the majority at the time but he didn't stay that way. If he was the angel it's his job to defend himself without giving himself away. "I urge you not to vote for me" and "let me stick around for a round or two" are common codes signifying a special role. We all saw it, we all got it--now ask yourself, what if the wolves DIDN'T get it? What if, say, Jasper is a wolf? Being that he's new, do you think he would have twigged on had you said nothing?

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:

I don't think I am better at this game than any of you but I would appreciate it if everything I said wasn't met with such scrutiny.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
3) We all probably know this by now, but I'll say it JIC: I think it is highly, highly likely that at least 1 of the BoT voters is a werewolf. Hooray, for once the seer is not lynched R1

---

Really Bugger? Im not so sure on that one. I mean the vote did look like it was going to be a close one, as it did indeed turn out to be. I don't think the wolves would have risked letting one of their own be eliminated so early in the game. It does make a sense in a that'll be confusing to the cits sort of way but i don't think the risk would have been worth it to them. To me that's the place to start. Out of those people the ones I have any sort of read on would be:
PGB, as Almaster said he started the whole Thanos bandwagon which took attention away from BoT.
Liq, doesnt seem to be saying much but not having played the game before i dont know if thats just his style? Perhaps someone could enlighten me on that.
and finally Bugger, you have been very talkative so far and your comment above makes me a bit suspicious.
And the acting dumb thing? Its not an act, i just wasn't sure what to expect from the game and so far its been a lot more intense than i expected it to be.

quote:

---

Originally posted by JackSpade:
Really Bugger? Im not so sure on that one. I mean the vote did look like it was going to be a close one, as it did indeed turn out to be. I don't think the wolves would have risked letting one of their own be eliminated so early in the game. It does make a sense in a that'll be confusing to the cits sort of way but i don't think the risk would have been worth it to them.

---

I'm leaning on history here. The last time a werewolf was lynched in R1 was WW4. GLE, a wolf, had failed to throw randon (the R1 lynch) under the bus and steadfastly supported his innocence. The crowd turned on him and lynched him. I would think these wolves would have learned not to be hesitant about tossing someone under the bus as insurance- you paint it as being a bold move to do so but frankly it's bolder not to. That surviving wolf gets insurance against suspicion- "hey, I voted for him. I wouldn't do that as a wolf!"
PD voted for me in WW7 when I was a werewolf. I told him to. And he went on to win the game for us.

A pile that big? You bet your butt there's probably a wolf in there hoping to avoid suspicion. I endorse looking at those late jumping on the wagon- a wolf could easily be deployed then to cut their losses.

quote:

---

To me that's the place to start. Out of those people the ones I have any sort of read on would be:
PGB, as Almaster said he started the whole Thanos bandwagon which took attention away from BoT.
Liq, doesnt seem to be saying much but not having played the game before i dont know if thats just his style? Perhaps someone could enlighten me on that.

---

Liq's posting style is to post as little as possible, and be as irritating and inscrutable as possible when doing so.

quote:

---

and finally Bugger, you have been very talkative so far and your comment above makes me a bit suspicious.

---

Why? What about it specifically do you find suspicious?

quote:

---

Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
BOT mentioned helping the wolves. It's not that he was advocating silence. That's why the post struck many people.

---

Yeah. He said that posting would help the wolves out. It wasn't clearly thought-out advice. The contrapositive is true:
Posting helps the wolves
Not posting does not help the wolves.
Ergo, he was telling us to be quiet, because talking would help the wolves. That's advocating silence from my perspective.

EDIT: In fact, here's what he said exactly:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
I think we need to all quiet down before the first werewolf kill is announced. We're just giving them more information in which to sway us.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
I'm going to take it as a sign that Chuck is a cit... for now. The seer should still scry to be sure about it, honestly, but from what I know of him Chuck would never cash in on his principles just to further his goals in a game like this. If he lost composure and sent a PM thereby breaking the rules, I'll say that I am certain that it was genuine emotion. So for now I'm thinking he's a cit.

---

Thank you for emphasizing the very point MM was trying to AVOID making an issue. Seriously, this post is no better than XPR's in terms of damage control. The PM happened, and there's nothing that can be done about it. Now stop bringing it up.

quote:

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Originally posted by JackSpade:
Really Bugger? Im not so sure on that one...

---

It makes a wolf look like a cit,
Wolves vote wolves, be sure of it.

quote:

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Originally posted by JackSpade:
And question: What's night phase? And when does the next wolf kill happen? Its before the next round of voting right? Or at the same time?

---

Its at this time they pick who dies,
The angel saves, the seer he scries.
Once Eric posts who they've done in,
That's when day phase will begin.

Round one will end and start round two,
But first, who is the wolf kill... who?

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 9!][My Brute!]

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 9!][My Brute!]

quote:

---

Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
I'm posting this now,
so that Bugger does not have a cow.
The wolves have spoken,
And it's Jazaray that they are smokin!

~MM

---

This is... Interesting to say the least.
I'm hittin' the hay now, but expect analysis come tomorrow.

quote:

---

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
I think we need to all quiet down before the first werewolf kill is announced. We're just giving them more information in which to sway us.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
[QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
I think we need to all quiet down before the first werewolf kill is announced. We're just giving them more information in which to sway us.

---

1. Once again the wolves have slain someone who spoke harshly to XPR. I see this as baiting the crowd.
2. Furthermore they killed a BOT voter, as if to say "we aren't afraid of shrinking the BOT pile". At this point any experienced wolf at least knows that's how those watching piles are going to see it, and I think that is what they WANT us to think.
3. Why didn't they kill Thanos? They know we will wonder about this, and perhaps draw the conclusion that Thanos is a wolf. Or they may have felt they were being suckered into an easy angel save.

And I suggest we start with JackSpade. He's a nice guy but his posts have that "playacting" feel about them. He was a later joiner of the BoT pile after initially casting suspicion on TOL for suspecting BoT. The ordering of the BoT voters was:

1. LIQ
2. JAZ
3. TOL
4. THA
5. LIQ (switches vote and leaves pile)
6. PD
7. JSP
8. B77

I know Jasper's new and maybe he really doesn't think wolves would ever vote for wolves. But I don't think so. I think he's pushing us away from the BoT pile just like the wolves are because he and the wolves are playing the same game. {VOTING: JackSpade (playacting)}

As far as the strong wolf goes? I think he's in the R1-Thanos pile--probably an earlyish attempt to save BoT and then thought it would be too risky to switch. The order of voters in the Thanos pile was:

1. PGB
2. BUG
3. GLE
4. AGM
5. JSP
6. XPR
7. BOT
8. BUG (switches vote and leaves pile)
9. JSP (switches vote and leaves pile)

As far as the rhyme goes? It was fun, but exhausting--I think I've had enough of it for now.

EDIT: vote and suspicions clearly delineated to test updates to tracker.

Today, I witnessed the first Werewolf lynching. It was a sight I will never forget. It was a Person I will never forget...
As BoT hung from the gallows; his voice began to speak in hoarse growls. It was so frightening; I had goose bumps and chills up my spine, just hearing it.
I wanted to run from courtyard as fast as I could.
Then his life just faded, as did the gurgling of his voice.
As he swung, a member of Ryan’s family came forward and threw a scarf at the swaying body of BoT, and then spat on him.

Dammed him.

I looked for a familiar face in the crowd, Thanos. But all I could see were scared and confused faces amongst my fellow Villagers. I am sure he is relieved. Though I know he is not forgotten.

I am glad this is over now... I can sleep peaceful tonight. Thank you God.

Journal of Fwybwed (Night Phase)

With my candle glowing at half bright, it was only a half day after BoT was hung for his ungodly being inside him; and I had heard screams in the night.
I heard them so close to my dwelling. It was like it was just outside my door.
I jumped out of my bed and grabbed my axe by the fireplace and ran outside to the back of my house.
I could only see as far as the light that shone from the rear doorway would allow, but the moon light was there to help.
My heart was beating so hard; I was scared, so scared.

The screams fell silent and all I heard were howls in the night.

My wife whispered for me with tears in her eyes and a shudder in her voice, “Fwy get in here NOW!”

As the silence was in the air, my hair on my neck stood tall and I felt cold. All I could hear was my heart beat.

I barely slept a wink for the rest of the night I tell you. Every little noise had me gazing through the dim light of my candle lit room.
I had feelings of been watched. I wanted to look out the window many times but I refused, I let the fear get me. I prayed for the morn' my axe by the bed and the Sun coming through for a new day, thank you God.

I got up and dressed and ran to the Village centre, where a commotion was a stir.
Voices were raised and angered.
I asked around to what had transpired from the previous night. And I heard the most horrible news, Jazaray was found east of the Village. My heart sank. She was a wonderful Mother. I prayed for her and her family.

Journal of Fwybwed (R2 Lynching)

I was told that there is another Werewolf or maybe two. I thought to myself or maybe more.
I thought of Thanos and all those who had accused him of been this monster, and how some refused to listen.
I then thought of BoT and those tried to discourage a vote for his life.
I’m tired right now, so tired, but I don't dare close my eyes. I hope to write more later my journal, but I am not sure what my future may hold. But know this, My axe, newly sharp with my swing tried and true. Ill will be on the wait tonite. Be sure of this Dogs....

Voting PGB

Suspect Bugger, Xpr

note: I think Ill stick one journal entry a round for story sake, this is hard lol

Fwy

Thanks,
Jazaray

Edit: Can't believe I forgot! GOOD LUCK CITS!
__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

quote:

---

Currently Voting :
 
• JackSpade

---

Evidence

quote:

---

Originally posted by JackSpade:
posted May 02, 2009 08:01 PM

This is a lot harder than i thought it was going to be. I have to say im probably hoping on the bandwagon and voting for thanos, still thinking about it obviously seeing what develops and all that. But I do find ThoughtsofLepers putting suspicion on BoT to be suspicious. It was a good piece of advice and it just seems strange to me that Thought would then cast suspicion on BoT for doing something helpful.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by JackSpade:
posted May 03, 2009 04:18 PM

Wowzers lots to think bout. Well my first suspicion was of ToL because he criticized BoTs 1st post when it looked like BoT was being helpful. But the more i think about it the more i begin to agree with ToL that it is a bit of a suspicious post. At that point i would say im equally suspicious of both. And then, as PD points out, BoT starts to defend himself against the "wagon" against him. said wagon not being very big. BoT doth protest too much, methinks. So for now going BoT.
At what point do we begin to vote out the silent people?

---

quote:

---

Suspicion List :
 
• High :

  60% : JackSpade
  55% : PlasteredDragon
  55% : GottaLoveElves
  54% : XplicitR
  54% : Bugger
   

• Mid :

  53% : PureGoblinBoy
  53% : Thanos
  53% : fwybwed
  52% : Bernek77
  52% : BernieB
   

• Low :

  50% : Masterwolf
  50% : AlmasterGM
  45% : ThoughtsofLepers

---

code:

---

Variables :
+2 : Likely to have Ryan Killed
-1 : Not Likely to have Ryan Killed
+2 : Likely to have Jaz Killed
-1 : Not Likely to have Jaz Killed
-1 : Voting BoT
+3 : Highly Suspicious Post
+2 : Suspicious Post
+1 : Possibly Suspicious Post
-1 : Not Suspicious Post

---

As per BoT :

I originally voted for him as I felt him to be the most likely out of 3 players (see first post) to have had ryan removed. I changed because I did not agree with the others on why they were voting BoT. However that opinion changed as he began to post with substance.

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

I'm thankful that you are mixing in some prose PD, it's a lot easier to understand. I don't suspect PD anymore, due to the information that has slipped out.

I'm curious as to why Jaz was killed, and not Thanos. I suspect it's because they're digging for the seer, and they took out a veteran at the same time.

Here's who I feel has a 0-20% chance of being a wolf:
Thanos
PD

21-40%:
XplicitR (brought WAY too much attention to himself early on. I have doubts that a wolf would do that. From what I've seen in previous games, unless the wolf is known to be a heavy poster like PD or Bugger, they quiet down and try to hide.)

41-50%: (People who I have not developed any strong opinion about)
fwybwed
Bernek77
BernieB
JackSpade

51%+
GottaLoveElves
Liq
Bugger
PureGoblinBoy

* For the above players, I suspect them mainly because they are strong, insightful players who have not been eaten. While that does not mean they are wolves, it makes them more suspicious than the average person. Also, I agree with the notion that we are dealing with at least one experienced wolf, and these would all fall in that category.

quote:

---

Originally posted by MasterWolf:
I'm thankful that you are mixing in some prose PD, it's a lot easier to understand.

---

Anyway I have a bit of news about the tracker, and many of you may not care, but some might.

When tracking posts, you have to put shorthands on the posts in the tracker to show what is significant about the post. If PGB votes Thanos for example, you put "V/Thanos." on that post, and if he gives a reason you can add that to the shorthand too.

But there's room for error if someone isn't clear or hides their declaration in the middle of a paragraph. There's even more room for error because identifying "suspicions" is pretty subjective. If I post something and Bernek says "I don't like this post" does that mean Bernek suspects PD? Right now I just sort of have to guess. In such a case I'd probably say "yes" and record "s/PD~suspicious post."

But, if you are interested in being accurately tracked, you can help me out by including a formatted tag for your votes and suspicions. Like this:

{VOTING: JackSpade}

That means I am declaring a vote for JackSpade in this post (with no reasons stated). If you want to add a reason put a parenthetical note after the person you are voting for like so:

{VOTING: JackSpade (playacting)}

The tracker will record this vote with "playacting" as the reason for the vote. Obviously you can only vote for one person, so the tracker only uses the first voting tag in each post. Don't worry, if you change your mind later and post a new post with a different voting tag, that will be picked up.

Declaring suspicions is done similarly:

{SUSPECT: GLE}
{SUSPECT: GLE (strong Thanos voter)}

You can have as many suspicion tags as you want in a single post:

{SUSPECT: PGB (strong Thanos voter)}{SUSPECT: GLE (strong Thanos voter)}

Also, if you suspect multiple people for the same reason, you can use one suspicion tag and put commas between the player's names:

{SUSPECT: BOT,JAZ,ryan (for being dead)}

Remember the reasons are optional, you don't need to provide them at all.

The player names can be any of the typical variants of the person's name. You can use their full name (puregoblinboy47) or any of their commonly used nicknames (PGB, goblinboy, kyle). If you get creative with the name, chances are the tracker will miss the tag and I'll have to note it by hand. Names are not case sensitive (i.e. BOT = BoT = bot).

Obviously, you aren't required to use these tags, and of course some people will have philosophical objections to using them. If you don't want to use them, don't--no problem. But if you *do* use them, you'll be making sure that you are accurately tracked and helping to ensure that the Voting/Suspicion History reports I post after a lynch do not misrepresent your state of mind.

Note: voting/suspect tags inside of properly formatted MOTL quotes will be ignored.

On Thanos and the Kill:
To say the very least, this is quite puzzling and will require further thought. I'm hesitant to draw any immediate conclusions from the kill pattern thus far; as more kills occur the possible scenarios shrink and the psychograph becomes more clearly defined. The question is, why did the wolves kill Jazaray? They could have done it because:
1. They are seer-hunting, and believed her to be unnaturally quiet.
2. They are offing the strong players in a "bottom-heavy" strategy (like revenger, Woolly, and AGM did WW8)
3. They wish to give as little information as possible by killing in an inscrutable manner
And why also did they not kill Thanos? He basically said "I have a special role! Don't vote me!". This could be because:
1. He is a wolf
2. They want the cits to spend a lynch eliminating the wolves' threats so they don't have to spare the time during the kill
3. Thanos [****not a good thing to discuss right now****]
4. They simply don't care about this, in which case the kill may have been simply to throw a wrench in pile analysis.
Like I said earlier, there's too many possibilities right now to divine any clear paths. I've begun sketching out a psychograph but we'll need more information before I can come out with it with confidence.

On where to look next: I think Chuck makes some excellent points WRT where to go now- the BoT pile is a little under half the field in size and therefore from a strict probability standpoint has a good chance of containing a wolf. Throw into the equation that wolves almost always (unless they're feeling particularly ballsy) vote for their own when things head south and I'd second the notion that it's where we should look next. (More on this in a later paragraph)

I'm not as certain as Chuck is however that the third wolf is in the Thanos pile. It certainly makes sense, and I can see easily how a wolfpack would do that to try and save their dear leader- much as we did in WW7 R4. PlasteredDragon voted for me, while I and Cait voted for the counterwagon (kood) just in case enough cits voted for kood as well that I would not have to die, but in the event I did we would still have one wolf with less suspicion.
OTOH. The wolves could have kept the third lupine out of the two wagons altogether and sent him off to the random pile (for my purposes I'm including AGM votes as random because for one thing it's only 2 votes and also it's quite clear a wagon was not forming on him in the slightest- so from a motivational perspective AGM was the same as a vote for pretty much anyone non-thanos or BoT). This is a valid possibility- if it truly seems inevitable that BoT is going down, or that his final attack orders were to save their own skins (I briefly considered doing this R4 WW7), the third wolf would be in the random pile.

So, if we look into the Battle of Twits pile, we have these 5 players to look from:
1. Bernek77
2. JackSpade
3. ThoughtsofLepers
4. Thanos
5. PlasteredDragon

My thoughts on each:
Bernek77: Bernek has been playing pretty much par for the course- he's making accusations and voting accordingly, and his posts are sometimes garbled (no dig intended mate). Right now I see no reason to suspect Bernek outside of his being in the BoT pile.
For PD's edification: {I do not suspect Bernek.}

JackSpade:* I've already mentioned why I feel JackSpade is deserving of more attention, and it seems others have picked up on what I saw as well. I understand full well this is his first time, but nevertheless his language and his "gee-whiz golly" additude strikes me as exaggerated. When added with the slightly-raised baseline suspicion I'm holding for BoT voters currently, I suspect JackSpade the most.
{SUSPECT: JackSpade (exaggerated play, BoT late voter)}

ThoughtsofLepers: Thoughts has changed a lot since his first game (His voice has changed a lot too; it's a light tan with a wood-grain like you'd see on a 2x4--for the curious), and he's become much more mellow. I see nothing out of the ordinary in him- just a fellow player making the strides from uninformed novice to solid player. His behaviour thus far has conformed with what I've seen of his play in mafia. Right now, I do not suspect ToL.

Thanos: I think we can all agree that Thanos is not a cit- but whether his role is one that helps or hurts the villagers is yet to be seen. I personally have my own conclusions as to which role he holds, but as posting them would likely be detrimental to the cit's goals I will keep them to myself. For now I suspect Thanos very little to not at all.

PlasteredDragon: AGM, I understand your point WRT the issues inherent in taking the rulebreaking into account when judging Chuck's character, but there's not much that can be done about it now that it's out in the open. It's unfortunate, but it's true. So with a bit of bitterness I say that I believe that Chuck is within 90% probability of being a cit.

To summarize: I suspect highly, and will likely be voting this round, for JackSpade.

Also, here are my suspicions overall (formatted and percentaged in the same manner as Liq does in order to frustrate PD )

quote:

---

Highly suspect:
1. JackSpade (65%)
2. PGB (55%)

Mostly Neutral:
1. Bernek77 (53%)
2. ThoughtsofLepers (53%)
3. AlmasterGM (50%)
4. GottaLoveElves (50%)
5. Liq (50%)
6. Masterwolf (50%)
7. BernieB (50%)

Low suspicions:
1. Fwybwed (48%)
2. XplicitR (45%)
3. Thanos (25%)
4. PlasteredDragon (<10%)

---