__________________
Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil Laugh

In fact, as thou no doubt recall,
A giant pile helps not at all,
Such as that tow'ring pile on TOL,
That played a part in our downfall.

That which I hath seen to-day,
Decides me. Vote another way.
And so it's at BoT's feet at last,
That my lot is finally cast.

For without dramatic swings in votes,
The dour worry BoT emotes
Seemst false, like his sage pregame advice (#072)
Seeming more a guiled device

To wear the shroud of citly care
When mayhap none at all be there.
Though Spade (#065) and PGB (#081) I've marked,
Methinks BoT be the one who barked

Unto old Luna in the night
When she shone so high and bright
As ryan fished upon the weir,
Unknowing that the wolves were near.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Holy crap. Thanos is at eight? I'm switching, but not to BoT, who seems to be the most popular counterwagon. I'm honestly seeing *nothing* wildly OOC for BoT- but some of JackSpade's posts are. Something in his posts seem off to me... if anything it looks a little like me ww7. It's better than nothing, and the last thing we need right now is another massive R1 pile. Voting JackSpade.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Holy crap. Thanos is at eight? I'm switching, but not to BoT, who seems to be the most popular counterwagon. I'm honestly seeing *nothing* wildly OOC for BoT- but some of JackSpade's posts are. Something in his posts seem off to me... if anything it looks a little like me ww7. It's better than nothing, and the last thing we need right now is another massive R1 pile. Voting JackSpade.

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So you're doing what I'm being wagoned for and going your own way???

quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
So you can conveniently not be in either the BoT or the Thanos pile when they are severely broken down three rounds from now, hmm? Seriously, I don't see the benefit of this vote at all from a citizen POV. Unless some people join you, which I doubt anyone will at this point, it just creates random, non-analyzable outliers.

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He knowest that a pile of size,
Can be a worry to the wise,
For wolves therein can be well hid,
So hence his vote changed as it did.

And since dear BOT he suspects not,
Wherefore should he cast his lot,
But for another player's end,
Who seems to him more foe than friend?

And on the piles, do not discount
Outliers--they'll come to account,
And in their outskirt paths reveal,
As much as those found close to heel.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
I'm honestly seeing *nothing* wildly OOC for BoT- but some of JackSpade's posts are. Something in his posts seem off to me...

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I don't see anything OOC for BoT either (Not that I know what 'in character' is for him) I'll get to why I'm voting him in a minute. As for JackSpade, isn't this his first game? If so, he has no established character and therefore cannot be OOC...but perhaps I'm wrong and he has played before.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
if anything it looks a little like me ww7.

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Could you possibly explain this statement please?

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
the last thing we need right now is another massive R1 pile.

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Agreed.

quote:

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Originally posted by AlamasterGM:
So you can conveniently not be in either the BoT or the Thanos pile when they are severely broken down three rounds from now, hmm? Seriously, I don't see the benefit of this vote at all from a citizen POV. Unless some people join you, which I doubt anyone will at this point, it just creates random, non-analyzable outliers.

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He's doing it so we don't end up with one MASSIVE unanalyzable (that's apparently not a word, oh well) pile, like we had last game.

quote:

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Originally posted by PD:
The dour worry BoT emotes
Seemst false, like his sage pregame advice (#072)
Seeming more a guiled device

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I agree on both counts, but could you possibly expound (In Iambic Pentameter, preferably ) if possible, on what exactly strikes you as odd about BoT's first post? I'll explain why I think it odd in a sec, but I'd like feedback from you on it, if you have much of a reason.

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
I guess everyone's got to start somewhere but I don't like all these people bandwagoning on me after one post.

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Believe me, I know how you feel after last game. Just had to say that.

quote:

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Originally posted by JackSpade:
But I do find ThoughtsofLepers putting suspicion on BoT to be suspicious. It was a good piece of advice and it just seems strange to me that Thought would then cast suspicion on BoT for doing something helpful.

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I agree; it was good advice, and I pointed that out. It also just seems to me to be the sort of thing that a wolf would love to make as their first post. To me, it seems like that post was only made to avoid suspicion. I may very well be wrong, but this is the first round, and I'm voting for the only person I have reason to suspect. I think it much better than voting for a RANDOM (capped for emphasis) person like Thanos, based on bad play. I agree that he sort of messed up the last game. (Not that I think we would have won anyway at that point.) I also know he's done it before. But I can already tell you a worse player THIS game. fwyb = no posts. As such, to me, he warrants much more of a vote than Thanos. I'm going on record right now as saying that I DO NOT like this vote for Thanos, and the huge pile that we may have afterwards. If he gets lynched, and ends up being a furry, then lynch me, whatever, but please vote for someone you actually find suspicious or that isn't posting this game.

I think there were more things I saw that I wanted to respond to, so I may post again later, hopefully before the lynch.

EDIT:

quote:

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Originally posted by Thanos:
So you're doing what I'm being wagoned for and going your own way???

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quote:

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Originally posted by Thanos:
So you're doing what I'm being wagoned for and going your own way?

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quote:

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Originally posted by ThoughtsofLepers:
Could you possibly explain this statement please?

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quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
So you can conveniently not be in either the BoT or the Thanos pile when they are severely broken down three rounds from now, hmm? Seriously, I don't see the benefit of this vote at all from a citizen POV. Unless some people join you, which I doubt anyone will at this point, it just creates random, non-analyzable outliers.

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Are you kidding? The random pile is eminently analyzable. I disagree with the train of thought that random piles are somehow inherently less useful WRT analysis- it matters much less than you'd think that their votes are not all cast for the same person. Random piles require a different angle of observation, with more attention to timing and post content. Just because it is a different kind of pile does not mean it will be ignored come R3/R4 analysis-- least of all, by me. You bet your butt I look at more groups than just voting records.

quote:

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Originally posted by Thanos:
So you're doing what I'm being wagoned for and going your own way???

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Wrong. I'm going my own way in round one, when it DOESN'T cost the cits the game.

quote:

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Originally posted by ThoughtsofLepers:
I don't see anything OOC for BoT either (Not that I know what 'in character' is for him) I'll get to why I'm voting him in a minute. As for JackSpade, isn't this his first game? If so, he has no established character and therefore cannot be OOC...but perhaps I'm wrong and he has played before.

Could you possibly explain this statement please?

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It will take more rounds to flesh out my perceptions fully, but I'll just say for now (since I don't want to prove Heisenberg in this particular instance) that his two posts strike me as... inconsistent.
Also, as I'm sure this will get AGM's continued suspicion:
If anything I've learned from last game, it's this: my on-the-spot instincts prove usually wrong, but my psychograph work and pile interpretations are almost always right. For that reason I'm trying (somewhat unsuccessfully) to post less in R1 and R2, as by that point there's not enough information to look at and therefore I have little of value to contribute. Therefore my R1 and R2 votes tend to be fairly empty of conviction- explaining why I'm making a habit of voting off quiet/unhelpful players R1 whenever possible (no dig at you intended, Jacky Boy [ha, I bet the tracker won't pick that up {sorry if you don't like being called that, I couldn't resist}]).

quote:

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EDIT: I find this to be a good point. Not because I think Bugger is wrong to vote for who he thinks is suspicious no matter how many people vote with him, (I don't), but because, like Thanos said, that's exactly how he plays, and what he is being wagoned on for now. Thanos, if you survive, I'd caution you to vote however you want until endgame. Endgame most often requires UNITY.

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Answered this already.

quote:

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Originally posted by ThoughtsofLepers:
I agree on both counts, but could you possibly expound (In Iambic Pentameter, preferably ) if possible, on what exactly strikes you as odd about BoT's first post? I'll explain why I think it odd in a sec, but I'd like feedback from you on it, if you have much of a reason.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
I think we need to all quiet down before the first werewolf kill is announced. We're just giving them more information in which to sway us.

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So to me his seeming fair reminder
Is more an effort to seem kinder,
Or kin to they that want to hang
Those of hackles, claw and fang.

And truthfully what was confessed,
With which the wolves would be impressed?
With pregame banter we are oft graced,
And so this caution's out of place.

It matters more on any night,
After the first where some insight
Based on events that have transpired
Can mayhap be by wolves acquired.

Lastly, 'mongst our village, few
Art so inexperienced and new,
As not to knoweth our varied quirks.
They want to sway us? They know what works.

I don't think BoT was true concerned,
About what secrets wolves might learn.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
...Jacky Boy [ha, I bet the tracker won't pick that up...

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quote:

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Currently Voting :
 
• PlasteredDragon

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PD's current posting style has me concerned. Can't tell if he's serious about playing or not.

quote:

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Suspicion List :
 
• High :

  58% : PlasteredDragon
  56% : Bugger
  54% : puregoblinboy47
  54% : Battle_of_Twits
  53% : GottaLoveElves
  53% : Bernek77
  52% : AlmasterGM
   

• Mid :

  51% : BernieB
  50% : fwybwed
  50% : Jazaray
  50% : XplicitR
  50% : JackSpade
   

• Low :

  49% : Masterwolf
  49% : ThoughtsofLepers
  49% : Thanos

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__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:

Therefore my R1 and R2 votes tend to be fairly empty of conviction- explaining why I'm making a habit of voting off quiet/unhelpful players R1 whenever possible (no dig at you intended, Jacky Boy [ha, I bet the tracker won't pick that up {sorry if you don't like being called that, I couldn't resist}]).

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I'm unhelpful.
My vote is going towards Thanos not because I think he's a WW but because im going on the other player's thoughts on him not being a team player. And unity is important i think although bugger makes a good point about it being early so going by your instinct isnt a bad thing in the early rounds. I have/am still thinking about changing my vote but it seems like a moot point just because of the heavy amount of votes for Thanos (zomginfinitygauntletftw [sorry little geek out moment there]).

quote:

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Originally posted by JackSpade:
Question: Do i actually have to pm a vote or is me mentioning it in my post sufficient?

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You must pm your vote to MM with a subject line of something like 'VOTE: Re: X'

EDIT:

quote:

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Originally posted by JackSpade:
I'm unhelpful.
My vote is going towards Thanos not because I think he's a WW but because im going on the other player's thoughts on him not being a team player. And unity is important i think although bugger makes a good point about it being early so going by your instinct isnt a bad thing in the early rounds. I have/am still thinking about changing my vote but it seems like a moot point just because of the heavy amount of votes for Thanos

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My 2 cents: If you want to be helpful (I'm not saying you're not being helpful...certainly more helpful than fwyb at the moment), post more content, i.e. who you find suspicious and why. Don't just jump on a bandwagon, giving us a huge pile to sort through later. I LIKE the way Thanos votes in early rounds. It gives alot more information than everyone piling on someone, IMO. If you still find me suspicious, vote for me, not Thanos. If Thanos keeps going his own way by R3 or R4, vote for him then. As of now, he is neither being suspicious or particularly unhelpful. (Although it certainly is hard to be helpful while under attack. No one can take you seriously until you properly defend yourself (i.e. change everyone's minds) or until your role is known.

Seriously, if any of this makes sense, please vote for me or someone else. A huge pile on Thanos will put us where we were last game: Up a creek without a paddle.

quote:

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Originally posted by TOL / PD:
He's doing it so we don't end up with one MASSIVE unanalyzable (that's apparently not a word, oh well) pile, like we had last game.

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This is an euphamism for "pile manipulation" and I don't like it. The value of piles is that they reveal voting patterns and intent at later stages of the game. If people have one intent but then vote another way in order to change the way the piles look, it's like evidence tampering. Bugger wanted to vote Thanos, but it'll be counted like he voted JackSpade for the rest of this game. If this is allowed and becomes commonplace, piles will become obslete. It's like those Orwellian books - the search for utopia leads to dystopia.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Are you kidding? The random pile is eminently analyzable. I disagree with the train of thought that random piles are somehow inherently less useful WRT analysis- it matters much less than you'd think that their votes are not all cast for the same person. Random piles require a different angle of observation, with more attention to timing and post content. Just because it is a different kind of pile does not mean it will be ignored comea R3/R4 analysis-- least of all, by me. You bet your butt I look at more groups than just voting records.

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I suppose that's technically true, but the game never seems to go down that way. In the later rounds, the citizen M.O. always seems to be narrowing down a pile to the point where there's only one or two people in it, and then assigning heavy suspicion to the individual who remains. Also, I can't really remember the last time a "who voted who when" argument actually held water, and I'm pretty sure PD confirmed this a round or two ago. In my opinion, these sorts of arguments are usually fabricated after the fact in response to some sort of gut suspicion.

If you personally can draw conclusions from it, fine. However, you can't analyze yourself, so unless someone else is going rogue with you, I think the JackSpade vote is useless.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:

my psychograph work and pile interpretations are almost always right.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Liq:
PD's current posting style has me concerned. Can't tell if he's serious about playing or not.

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It would be uncommon bold
To as a wolf my posts so mold
So worry not about the style
And note the content is worthwhile.

And eke, thou soundst quite silly,
Is there more serious than me?
Thou hast put me in a stitch...
Odd posts irk THEE? That's a switch!

quote:

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Originally posted by Liq:
I shall put my name down for this.

I plan to use my "Crypt Silent" posting Technique.

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quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
This is an euphamism for "pile manipulation" and I don't like it. The value of piles is that they reveal voting patterns and intent at later stages of the game.

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113. Apr-05 03:35 PM: PlasteredDragon - Voting Thanos, silent player, preventing TOL pile from getting too large. - (ref: Liq, rev, Tnos, TOL, XRK)

And verily did some balk at it,
But I was right, and was a cit.
His actions thou shouldst well embrace,
Why give the wolves a hiding place?

quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
Bugger wanted to vote Thanos, but it'll be counted like he voted JackSpade for the rest of this game. If this is allowed and becomes commonplace, piles will become obslete. It's like those Orwellian books - the search for utopia leads to dystopia.

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quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
If you personally can draw conclusions from it, fine. However, you can't analyze yourself, so unless someone else is going rogue with you, I think the JackSpade vote is useless.

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quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
Why do I get the feeling ***something that shouldn't be posted***

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I still feel it is stupid to vote for me on what I did last game, and then not even give me a chance to redeem myself this game.

quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
This is an euphamism for "pile manipulation" and I don't like it. The value of piles is that they reveal voting patterns and intent at later stages of the game. If people have one intent but then vote another way in order to change the way the piles look, it's like evidence tampering.

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Yes. But only if that's their reason for switching- to manipulate piles. There's a lot to go into WRT piles, voting, and voting influencing piles (and vice versa) but I'm kind of shredded tonight so I'll stick to the basics.
...If I had changed my vote without providing information why, it would be evidence tampering. The scale of ease with which vote declarations can be made run from the plain "voting X" to a long and detailed indictment of player X. You have to research why they voted that way- if they provide no reason, or (worst of all) someone else provides a reason for them- examples of this are Liq's stunt WW8 and plain ol' late-term wagoning-, that's more suspicious than a long, complex explanation. Wolves take the easy route whenever possible- that's why it's generally pretty ballsy for a wolf to start a wagon. They put their argument and their own credibility up for attack, and have to succeed in an argument with whoever they're wagoning against. So when someone just switches their vote and justifies it retroactively- like PD did R1 last game- then yeah, that's suspicious.

quote:

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Bugger wanted to vote Thanos, but it'll be counted like he voted JackSpade for the rest of this game. If this is allowed and becomes commonplace, piles will become obslete. It's like those Orwellian books - the search for utopia leads to dystopia.

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Because he (surprise ahead) did vote for JackSpade.
I've explained this already- my vote in R1 and (usually) R2 are not nearly as informed or weighted with conviction as my R3 and R4 (and so on) votes are. I could have cast my vote for Thanos- or it could have been BernieB, or Fwybwed, or any other quiet player. Or it could be someone who did something I found suspicious- like JackSpade.

quote:

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I suppose that's technically true, but the game never seems to go down that way. In the later rounds, the citizen M.O. always seems to be narrowing down a pile to the point where there's only one or two people in it, and then assigning heavy suspicion to the individual who remains.

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It usually works.

quote:

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Also, I can't really remember the last time a "who voted who when" argument actually held water, and I'm pretty sure PD confirmed this a round or two ago. In my opinion, these sorts of arguments are usually fabricated after the fact in response to some sort of gut suspicion.

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They aren't fabricated, but they are one of those kinds of points that are for support- they don't make the case itself. Stuff like suspicious behaviour, voting records, etc make the backbone of a suspicion, and stuff like voting time, response, and degree of similarity to past play are secondary but no less important.

quote:

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By the way, I wanted to ask you this last game, but I thought it would be too suspicious. What tone and color am I?

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You are red, and shaped like a tapered oval.