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GottaLoveElves
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posted May 09, 2009 01:56 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for GottaLoveElves Click Here to Email GottaLoveElves Send a private message to GottaLoveElves Click to send GottaLoveElves an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Hah! Au contraire mon frere. You told me you said the Thanos lynch was a "great idea" because you wanted the wolves to speak up and show themselves by bandwagoning on him with you. Refusing to declare would not allow them to see what you were doing, so they couldn't really bandwagon could they. Now you are talking about voting for him so they can see you did it before they decide to make their kill. How exactly will THAT reveal them to you? Your argument just turned at right angles to reality--you sound way too much like you are trying to sell me a car.

{VOTING: GLE (self contradictory argument)}


Good for you.
Honestly, I spend all round lampooning on Thanos, get no support, and when I jump ship because I frankly don't have much going with the plan, and keep the vote so that wolves might look up and say "geez, we could jump on with GLE and get Thanos out", that's somehow self-contradictory?
It wasn't a one-round plan, PD. Just because I gave up the ghost on arguing about it didn't mean I'd abandoned it.

__________________
MOTL's answer to Billy Crystal.
He's old enough to know what's right, but young enough not to choose it.
He's noble enough to win the world, but weak enough to lose it.

"Pray to God? Nahh. I pray to Hitler. He gets things done."
Long Story Short... (My Blog)
04/28/02

 
GottaLoveElves
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posted May 09, 2009 02:03 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for GottaLoveElves Click Here to Email GottaLoveElves Send a private message to GottaLoveElves Click to send GottaLoveElves an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Probably because this game changes pretty darn frequently? Different game, different wolves, different strategies? And who tried to bait the wolves into thinking they were the angel last game? I was dead for some of that game but I don't remember it happening.

I don't either, and I was a wolf last game. I think I mistook this quote:

quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Had you been interested in baiting the wolves, you should have been acting like *YOU* were the angel, so as to get them to try for you instead of Thanos--like I tried to last round. They didn't take the bait. They're smart.

saying "last round" to mean "last game". My mistake.
However, in this context, I still don't get it: perhaps I'm daft, but I never thought for a second that you were the angel, and the wolves probably didn't either. Perhaps they "outsmarted" you by not picking up on whatever it was you were trying to do.

__________________
MOTL's answer to Billy Crystal.
He's old enough to know what's right, but young enough not to choose it.
He's noble enough to win the world, but weak enough to lose it.

"Pray to God? Nahh. I pray to Hitler. He gets things done."
Long Story Short... (My Blog)
04/28/02

 
PlasteredDragon
Member
posted May 09, 2009 02:16 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
...when I jump ship because I frankly don't have much going with the plan, and keep the vote so that wolves might look up and say "geez, we could jump on with GLE and get Thanos out", that's somehow self-contradictory?
It wasn't a one-round plan, PD. Just because I gave up the ghost on arguing about it didn't mean I'd abandoned it...

First of all <3 you GLE. And secondly, your argument is full of holes.

You yourself said a wolf's top priority is to get the seer. Are you telling me now that you thought the wolves might decide not to try and kill Thanos R2N because you voted for him? On the off chance that maybe you'll convince the crowd on the next round?

Come on GLE. This isn't working. I think you are too competent to seriously employ such a strategy. To get the wolves to let the seer live another round you try to make them think you suspect him, instead of trying to make them think you are the angel and you are going to protect him? Which do you think is going to work better?

As far as how I attempted to bait the wolves last round:

quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
...Suffice it to say that just because you have an unbagged cat it doesn't mean there isn't a way to turn it to your advantage. I have an intuition that your worst fears are not going to be realized, anyway...

How could I know such a thing? I hoped a clever wolf would see it and think that the Thanos kill couldn't be risked.

{SUMMARY: GLE voted for Thanos so the wolves would let him live? I don't think so.}
__________________
-- PlasteredDragon A.K.A. Chuck Seggelin
* Sagewood Studios * My Flickr Photostream * My Blog *



[Edited 1 times, lastly by PlasteredDragon on May 09, 2009]

 
fwybwed
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posted May 09, 2009 02:23 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for fwybwed Click Here to Email fwybwed Send a private message to fwybwed Click to send fwybwed an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Bernek77:
I am upset due to the fact that people kept talking about Thanos's role. I a very good suspicion that he was the Seer. Low and behold I was correct. Why didn't the Angel protect him? This is something that definitely should be revisited after this game.

Really? hmmm I myself figured Thanos had a role to play tho I did not find him suspicious in the way you state it here.

Villagers suspicious to everyone to be a ww.

Wws suspicious of others to be an Angel or Seer.

As for the Angel not protecting him. To me says he most likely had him as a suspect to. But felt a wolf kill on him could or should be next. If not shredded then he would remain a suspect worth looking at, or get us some names.

quote:
Look IMO I do not think there was a wolf in the BoT pile. After a few deaths in that pile that it would be revisited. So I urge that if you really think there is a wolf in that pile then start with me.

Done, and in the future as villager or ww, try to have some fun. I am

@PD

You tried to bait the ww's as an Angel last round, can I see the posts please...

 
PlasteredDragon
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posted May 09, 2009 02:33 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by fwybwed:
@PD

You tried to bait the ww's as an Angel last round, can I see the posts please...


I tried to bait the wolves into thinking I was the angel last round (R2) yes. I quoted it in the post directly above yours. Or you can go check out the original post:

273. May-08 02:01 PM: PlasteredDragon - Attempts to assuage Bernek's apprehension. - (ref: Bernk)

{SUMMARY: Refers fwy to post #273 where PD baited wolves by posing as angel.}
__________________
-- PlasteredDragon A.K.A. Chuck Seggelin
* Sagewood Studios * My Flickr Photostream * My Blog *



[Edited 1 times, lastly by PlasteredDragon on May 09, 2009]

 
GottaLoveElves
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posted May 09, 2009 02:34 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for GottaLoveElves Click Here to Email GottaLoveElves Send a private message to GottaLoveElves Click to send GottaLoveElves an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
You yourself said a wolf's top priority is to get the seer. Are you telling me now that you thought the wolves might decide not to try and kill Thanos R2N because you voted for him? On the off chance that maybe you'll convince the crowd on the next round?

Yes.
The wolves were sold on Thanos being the seer, and it was a fruitless plan.
If they think he *might* be, my line of thinking was that perhaps they'd try and consolidate the killing of Thanos into their plan as a lynch rather than a kill.
You know, as a wolf, I try and sway the cits into a bad decision; is it so strange to you that I'd try to do the same to the wolves as a cit?

quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
I think you are too competent to seriously employ such a strategy. To get the wolves to let the seer live another round you try to make them think you suspect him, instead of trying to make them think you are the angel and you are going to protect him? Which do you think is going to work better?

The latter. I think that you're too competent to not see the advantage in trying something new like that rather than the tired old play. Similarly, in the tactic you've tried:

quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
How could I know such a thing? I hoped a clever wolf would see it and think that the Thanos kill couldn't be risked.

I've pointed out that I certainly didn't catch that you were implying you had a halo, why not just come out and say "I'm pretty sure a competent angel will save Thanos", rather than just being cryptic and hoping that some wolf was reading that deep into everything you had to say?


__________________
MOTL's answer to Billy Crystal.
He's old enough to know what's right, but young enough not to choose it.
He's noble enough to win the world, but weak enough to lose it.

"Pray to God? Nahh. I pray to Hitler. He gets things done."
Long Story Short... (My Blog)
04/28/02



[Edited 1 times, lastly by GottaLoveElves on May 09, 2009]

 
PlasteredDragon
Member
posted May 09, 2009 03:26 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
You know, as a wolf, I try and sway the cits into a bad decision; is it so strange to you that I'd try to do the same to the wolves as a cit?

Of course not. What's strange is that you think they would decide to leave the seer alive because you voted for him. It simply doesn't make sense. Were I a wolf it certainly wouldn't convince me to keep the seer alive. As far as me being cryptic? Had I been too obvious the wolves would have known I was trying to trick them. The only way I could convince them that the angel would protect Thanos was to imply that I was the angel--and that means not just coming out and saying it. {SUMMARY: Responds to GLE.}
 
GottaLoveElves
Member
posted May 09, 2009 03:43 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for GottaLoveElves Click Here to Email GottaLoveElves Send a private message to GottaLoveElves Click to send GottaLoveElves an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Of course not. What's strange is that you think they would decide to leave the seer alive because you voted for him. It simply doesn't make sense.

Pretend you're Steve the wolf. As Steve, you're watching me harp in Thanos constantly throughout the round, and being shaky on who I'm voting for, going as far as to make an out of character play and not announce. Now, imagine that you have a moderate suspicion of Thanos as the seer.

I call you Steve the wolf instead of PD the wolf because I know that you're not going to leave Thanos alive just because I think he's a wolf: I assume you know he's the seer, and you want him dead ASAP.

So, if you as Steve think that you can go after someone else who you have a moderate suspicion of as the seer with your kill, and vocally support my aim at Thanos and start a bandwagon, wouldn't you rather the two birds with one stone approach? Down both of the guys you think to be the seer without having to use up two kills?
I know it might be a stretch, and I'm not trying to portray it as an optimal strategy, but that's what I was thinking. I appreciate the credit you give me as a player, but I'm not immune to bad logic or my plans not working; that's what I was going for, and obviously it didn't work at all.

quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Had I been too obvious the wolves would have known I was trying to trick them. The only way I could convince them that the angel would protect Thanos was to imply that I was the angel--and that means not just coming out and saying it. {SUMMARY: Responds to GLE.}

You don't really know that; you know that what you tried didn't work, and you speculate otherwise.

Similarly, I don't know but the wolves might've fallen for me making an "I'm the seer" post as you suggest would've been a better idea.

I'm not trying to quantify your strategy as a bad one necessarily, PD.
I made a bad call strategically, and I've given my reasoning. You don't have to buy it, but just saying "well why didn't you do this instead? you're a wolf" isn't getting either of us anywhere.

__________________
MOTL's answer to Billy Crystal.
He's old enough to know what's right, but young enough not to choose it.
He's noble enough to win the world, but weak enough to lose it.

"Pray to God? Nahh. I pray to Hitler. He gets things done."
Long Story Short... (My Blog)
04/28/02

 
PlasteredDragon
Member
posted May 09, 2009 04:34 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
Pretend you're Steve the wolf. [...] So, if you as Steve think that you can go after someone else who you have a moderate suspicion of as the seer with your kill, and vocally support my aim at Thanos and start a bandwagon, wouldn't you rather the two birds with one stone approach? Down both of the guys you think to be the seer without having to use up two kills?

Heh. Steve the wolf *knows* you probably aren't the seer if you are hot to lynch Thanos, because Steve knows Thanos isn't a wolf. Steve's primary concern is how to kill the seer--sure he could speak up, but why risk it? There's clearly no real motivation in the crowd even with GLE is saying "hey I think we should lynch Thanos". If a bunch of people stepped up and said "yeah let's do that", then maybe. What Steve can't afford is to wait too long.

By lynch time it's clear to Steve (and theoretically to you) that there's no way Thanos is going to get lynched. For some reason you seem to think Steve the wolf would wait. I don't. I think Steve would kill Thanos or whomever he thought might be the angel. He certainly isn't going to go for the dude who's voting for Thanos--he's neither going to suspect you as the angel or the seer if you are making such an egregious error.

Now let's talk about GLE the wolf instead of Steve the wolf. GLE knows that an angel worth his salt is going to protect Thanos R1N, so he puts out the idea that a Thanos lynch might be a good idea. The cits don't have people they know they can trust like the wolves do, so they can't just confer with the most experienced among them to vet the notion. GLE the wolf knows two things--the angel probably knows that the wolves didn't try to kill Thanos R1N... why? Maybe Thanos is a wolf! And GLE knows his vaunted reputation carries a fair bit of weight. If he can plant doubt in the mind of the angel, perhaps the angel will turn his attention elsewhere.

You didn't strongly press the issue for a Thanos kill--you knew it would look too suspicious if you did. You just wanted to plant a seed of doubt. You went so far as to not even declare your vote for Thanos--hardly a convincing argument.

But it worked, fwy for example, admits he was beginning to doubt Thanos' nature. You could have fought a lot harder to get Thanos in the noose but you didn't--probably because if you got him lynched your number would be up.

quote:
Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
I know it might be a stretch, and I'm not trying to portray it as an optimal strategy, but that's what I was thinking. I appreciate the credit you give me as a player, but I'm not immune to bad logic or my plans not working; that's what I was going for, and obviously it didn't work at all.

You are an excellent player, and it is because I hold such a high opinion of your abilities that I don't buy that this was your plan. It wouldn't convince any experienced wolf, and given that there is probably at least one experienced wolf and the wolves get to confer? No I don't buy it, and I certainly don't buy that you would stretch it to multiple rounds thinking the wolves might hold off on killing Thanos because you suspected him. As I said, <3 you GLE, but this line of reasoning you've put forth is utterly unconvincing to me.
quote:
Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
Similarly, I don't know but the wolves might've fallen for me making an "I'm the seer" post as you suggest would've been a better idea.

I didn't suggest that. I suggested that making an "I'm the angel" post was a better idea.
quote:
Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
I made a bad call strategically, and I've given my reasoning. You don't have to buy it, but just saying "well why didn't you do this instead? you're a wolf" isn't getting either of us anywhere.

It's not my intention to say "why didn't you do this instead? you're a wolf". You're saying you made this weird attempt at drawing out the wolves, which didn't work and then you didn't declare instead of trying harder to draw them out, and then you thought you had to vote for Thanos to stretch it to another a round and hope that they wouldn't kill him because you suspected him.

Yeah. There are better plays. I don't suspect you for not making a better play. I suspect you for trying to convince me that this is the play you were actually making.

You aren't capable of that level of incompetence. I don't believe you made a terrible play. I think you made a brilliant play, and it worked. You got the angel to doubt Thanos so you could kill him. I think you're a wolf and you have my vote.

I've no desire to have a clash of the titans argument with you. If this is the line of reasoning you are going to present, I do not believe it and I think the evidence against you is pretty strong. If you don't have a new argument I see no reason to continue this one.

And if I'm wrong you can beat me up in the aftergame. Doubtless there's plenty of unpleasantry awaiting me already. I'm probably banned from some games at this point, and will likely have my standings erased. I don't like it but I'll accept it, it's a fair cop.

{SUMMARY: GLE's argument does not convince PD. He suggests they end the discussion of it.}

__________________
-- PlasteredDragon A.K.A. Chuck Seggelin
* Sagewood Studios * My Flickr Photostream * My Blog *



[Edited 1 times, lastly by PlasteredDragon on May 09, 2009]

 
PlasteredDragon
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posted May 09, 2009 04:42 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
{SUMMARY: We are at 310 posts. We need a new thread. MM can you oblige?}

__________________
-- PlasteredDragon A.K.A. Chuck Seggelin
* Sagewood Studios * My Flickr Photostream * My Blog *

 
GottaLoveElves
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posted May 09, 2009 04:57 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for GottaLoveElves Click Here to Email GottaLoveElves Send a private message to GottaLoveElves Click to send GottaLoveElves an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
It's not my intention to say "why didn't you do this instead? you're a wolf". You're saying you made this weird attempt at drawing out the wolves, which didn't work and then you didn't declare instead of trying harder to draw them out, and then you thought you had to vote for Thanos to stretch it to another a round and hope that they wouldn't kill him because you suspected him.

This paragraph shows that you're still either misunderstanding or misrepresenting. The strategy didn't end until Thanos died. I was hoping that the discussion between the two remaining wolves at night might garner a "let's jump with GLE and wagon Thanos, while killing someone else we suspect to have a role". That's why my vote still went to Thanos.

quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
I've no desire to have a clash of the titans argument with you. If this is the line of reasoning you are going to present, I do not believe it and I think the evidence against you is pretty strong. If you don't have a new argument I see no reason to continue this one.

This hasn't been about convincing you for a few posts now, PD. I'm aware that you're cemented, but I was basically looking for the conclusion you came to there: we're going to agree to disagree, you're going to vote for me, and I'm going to see what I can come up with in the next couple days. The only reason I've made this point to continue to bicker is to be sure that if others are going to choose your side and vote for me, that I've at least expressed myself clearly and it's because I blew it, not because the picture you painted of me makes me sound like I blew it. After the first point I made, I'm content with that now, and I'll accept the impasse. (Pending your last word, of course)

quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Yeah. There are better plays. I don't suspect you for not making a better play. I suspect you for trying to convince me that this is the play you were actually making.

You aren't capable of that level of incompetence. I don't believe you made a terrible play. I think you made a brilliant play, and it worked. You got the angel to doubt Thanos so you could kill him. I think you're a wolf and you have my vote.


All I can say to that is that hindsight is 20/20.

__________________
MOTL's answer to Billy Crystal.
He's old enough to know what's right, but young enough not to choose it.
He's noble enough to win the world, but weak enough to lose it.

"Pray to God? Nahh. I pray to Hitler. He gets things done."
Long Story Short... (My Blog)
04/28/02

 
Bugger
Member
posted May 09, 2009 07:31 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Bugger Click Here to Email Bugger Send a private message to Bugger Click to send Bugger an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
Okay, am I really the only one who's wolfdar is screaming over what Bernek just said?

quote:
Originally posted by Bernek77:
After Thanos dropped the hint that led me to believe he was the seer, and the wolves killed Jaz. I felt a though we caught a break and the Angel would just keep saving him as he gathered names until the angel was killed then Thanos could come out with what he knows. I do have a right to be upset as a villager.

Uh, WHAT? I call BS here. If you wanted this to occur, why did you spend five-plus posts screaming at everyone who tried to bring up the idea of Thanos having a special role? Did you think if we all shut up about it the angel would somehow magically get the hint, and would get the hint better than if we drew it out for him in big red crayons (which apparently wasn't enough, great job there angel )?

Bernek, I'm voting for you right now; this is just too bizarre and suspicious and absolutely contradicts everything you've said and done up to this point.

quote:
I am upset due to the fact that people kept talking about Thanos's role. I a very good suspicion that he was the Seer. Low and behold I was correct.

Two things:
1) It's LO and behold, not "low" and behold.
2) So your brilliant method of trying to keep him safe was to flip your **** at everyone who tried to talk about him? Whoa, I have no clue why that particular stroke of genius didn't work. But apparently that wasn't your goal? Apparently you wanted the following:

quote:
I felt a though we caught a break and the Angel would just keep saving him as he gathered names until the angel was killed then Thanos could come out with what he knows.

Again, what the bloody **** were you substituting in the place of LOGIC when you came up with this? Trying to keep Thanos on the down low only increases the probability that the angel would NOT pick up on the already painfully obvious cues (but, and this is the irony, two full nights of heated discussion about Thanos were still not enough to clue our angel in), not somehow make it more likely to succeed.

In this case, I'm actually agreeing with BernieB in his post:

quote:
Originally posted by BernieB:

It struck me odd that he got so upset when people kept mentioning Thanos obviously having a special role. Oh sure, we all knew that you never mention things like this, but Bernek got especially heated.
I am thinking that it was because, as a wolf, he caught the hint and realized who they needed to eat. But when people kept talking about it, he realized that this would cause the Angel to protect him. He would much rather people (especially the angel) forget about Thnos, so he would not be protected and the hairy ones could kill him.
As it heppens, it worked out to their best hopes.


You fit the psychograph. Your voting pattern fits. You have the motivation, the post record, and the behavior model. And to top it off, you have suddenly severed all ties and passing friendship with linear planning.
Voting Bernek.

__________________
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Bernek77
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posted May 09, 2009 07:57 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Bernek77 Click Here to Email Bernek77 Send a private message to Bernek77 Click to send Bernek77 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
Bugger so your reasoning, let me make sure I get this right is keep talking about thanos with a special role so the angel will pick it up. Hmmmmm I thought you thought he was the angel. It kept being brought up about him having a role an yet the ANGEL did not save him. Had I been a wolf wouldn't of I jumped on Thanos Rd 1 epecially after he was saying I am an asset of the villagers. Hmmmmm did I not vote for BoT? Yeah your right, I flipped my lid, sold my wolf leader up the river and I scream wolf (HOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!) LMAO

Get a grip kid!

__________________
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