I'm back in the game!

Path to Exile???

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Currently Voting :
 
• Bugger

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Liq, there wasn't even a wagon on BoT then, only your vote. And you always change your vote like 5 times in the game. Frankly, you don't intimidate me enough for that. This stinks too, like the rest of your case.

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I never said anything about a bandwagon. I said a case.

PGB presented a case for Thanos and then you "agreed strongly with it".

That in itself makes me concerned as I don't agree with what PGB said there.

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Originally posted by Bugger:
I'm not sure what you mean by "deflection". Could you elaborate?

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Set up a situation in which the villagers begin to reconsider their suspicions.

Pretty much what ToL did. However his deflection was towards BoT which lead to his demise. Which is why I don't suspect him.

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Originally posted by Bugger:
suspicions are opinions. They can be based off of accuracy, or inaccuracy, but they are opinions. Simply because you found BoT suspicious does not mean I did as well- I didn't.

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Noted.

Note that I included that quote as it is part of my evidence against you.

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Originally posted by Bugger:
This is where you start getting really shaky, demonstrated here by totally misinterpreting my statement.

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Originally posted by Bugger:
This, like Bernek's latest behavior, has me utterly baffled. It mystifies me how you can misunderstand this.

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My greatest strength and weakness is that I always think like a Mafioso. As our games of Mafia translate to Werewolf well, I see wolves everywhere. What they would do, why would they do that, how would they accomplish it, etc. Problem remains that I find it hard to trust others and constantly see ghosts.

As per misinterpreting you or misunderstanding you that has yet to be seen. With the seer dead, I'm pretty much on high alert.

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Originally posted by Bugger:
ToL was one of BoT's two suspects alongside Liq. Would he finger both of the other wolves? Unlikely. Would he finger one? Possibly. What really exacerbates this point is Bernek's pronouncement that anyone who BoT mentioned is probably a cit.

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So why did BoT suspect me? Oh yeah, I was the first to vote for him thus causing his eventual death.

Why did BoT suspect ToL? He pretty much got the ball rolling away from Thanos and towards his eventual death.

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Suspicion List :
 
• High :

  58% : Bugger
  53% : PlasteredDragon
  52% : GottaLoveElves
   

• Mid :

  51% : Masterwolf
  51% : BernieB
  51% : AlmasterGM
  50% : Bernek77
  50% : XplicitR
  50% : puregoblinboy47
   

• Low :

  49% : fwybwed
  45% : ThoughtsofLepers

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Liq you raise some interesting points. But once again I have to ask you if you are going to link to a post where the significance of it is not obvious, please explain yourself or I am going to be forced to ignore it. I'm too busy to "figure out" what you mean. Say what you mean.

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My point was that GLE attempted what I did in WWIV to get the seer through another round.

I only mentioned it since it has worked before.

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Originally posted by Liq in WWIV:
PD, you've asked why I didn't vote GLE in Round 2. Simple answer was that my vote didn't matter in terms of lynching, but I took the risk that fwyb was the seer. I had a suspicion he was as such and if the wolves thought I'd go after him, he would live through the round.

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__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

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Originally posted by Bugger:
That was my biggest concern WRT suicide this round- that GLE would just come up with an excuse to avoid being lynched next round, and the round after that, and then oops game over, GG wolves.

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You have to get over this idea that one of us has to go now, and one later. I've said that if you think I'm a wolf, that you should vote for me. The problem I have with what you've been presenting is that you're trying to posit a plan for next round's target right now, which flat out doesn't work.

It's not about making excuses and buying time; it's about the conditions of the game changing on a round-by-round basis. It's the same when two players go flat out accusing each other in a round and one dies; the other doesn't usually die the next round because there are so many new things to apply. This makes it more important (and I'll say it again) that if you think I'm a wolf, come off your high horse and vote for me now. Else, you're selfishly trying to be a martyr, and what you'll likely watch next round is someone who is not me getting the axe.

ROUND 3 VOTES:

Bernek77 - 3 votes from BernieB [1], fwybwed [1], XplicitR [2] - 1: not stated, 2: lycanthrope
Bugger - 3 votes from Bernek77 [1], Bugger [2], Liq [3] - 1: unwilling to be lynched first, 2: PD's suggestion,wants to die to prove point, 3: questioned BoT vote, other points
GottaLoveElves - 1 votes from PlasteredDragon [1] - 1: self contradictory argument

No votes declared from: AlmasterGM, GottaLoveElves, MasterWolf, puregoblinboy47, ThoughtsofLepers

SUMMARY:

AlmasterGM - no votes or suspicions announced.
Bernek77 - Voting for: Bugger (unwilling to be lynched first).
BernieB - Voting for: Bernek77 (not stated). Suspects: puregoblinboy47.
Bugger - Voting for: Bugger (PD's suggestion,wants to die to prove point). Suspects: AlmasterGM, fwybwed, GottaLoveElves, Liq, MasterWolf, ThoughtsofLepers.
fwybwed - Voting for: Bernek77 (not stated). Suspects: Bugger.
GottaLoveElves - no votes or suspicions announced.
Liq - Voting for: Bugger (questioned BoT vote, other points).
MasterWolf - no votes or suspicions announced.
PlasteredDragon - Voting for: GottaLoveElves (self contradictory argument). Suspects: fwybwed.
puregoblinboy47 - no votes or suspicions announced.
ThoughtsofLepers - no votes or suspicions announced.
XplicitR - Voting for: Bernek77 (lycanthrope). Suspects: GottaLoveElves.

SUSPECTED:

Bugger - suspected by 4 players - Bernek77, Bugger, fwybwed, Liq
Bernek77 - suspected by 3 players - BernieB, fwybwed, XplicitR
GottaLoveElves - suspected by 3 players - Bugger, PlasteredDragon, XplicitR
fwybwed - suspected by 2 players - Bugger, PlasteredDragon
AlmasterGM - suspected by 1 player - Bugger
Liq - suspected by 1 player - Bugger
MasterWolf - suspected by 1 player - Bugger
puregoblinboy47 - suspected by 1 player - BernieB
ThoughtsofLepers - suspected by 1 player - Bugger

POSTS:

62 posts since Thanos (seer) eaten - round 3 begins:

PlasteredDragon: 17 posts
Bugger: 12 posts
GottaLoveElves: 12 posts
Bernek77: 7 posts
Liq: 4 posts
fwybwed: 3 posts
XplicitR: 3 posts
BernieB: 2 posts
puregoblinboy47: 2 posts
AlmasterGM: 0 posts
MasterWolf: 0 posts
ThoughtsofLepers: 0 posts

@AlmasterGM, GottaLoveElves, MasterWolf, puregoblinboy47, ThoughtsofLepers: not only have you not posted any votes, since R3 began you also haven't posted any suspects or leads. Obviously the holiday is problematic for most of us, but it is in your interest to get your suspicions out there--any of us could be the next lynch victim or wolf kill. GLE, you've had a lot of time to parry with Bugger and I over the weekend. Can you take a moment and actually say who it is you suspect?

At this point I am very conflicted. I don't really believe GLE's argument, Bernek is as nutty as ever so it's impossible to tell whether or not to trust him, Bugger is brilliant (and dangerous) and as much as I suspect his R1 opinion of BOT, I still don't see anything convincing. Liq's arguments against Bugger are really weak and Bugger dealt with them handily, but I am surprised to see Liq put forth such a weak argument.

I have been in suspicion of B77 and Bugger for awhile now.

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PD…Checking in from Mom's house. Liq's argument against Bugger is dirt poor. Boiled down, the only thing he has of any substance is that Bugger didn't seem to see anything suspicious about BoT. We know this already and yes it is suspicious. There's nothing new there. If it convinces Liq well, okay for Liq I guess, he's still worrying over me so he's clearly operating as much in the dark as anyone, or faking it well.

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I do not think this is a bad argument at all… as this is pretty much what asked Bugger about earlier and why I had my suspicions of him.

As for your question in regard to whether they are willing to go to the Gallows for the good of the Poggle… lets look at their answers:

GLE: Actually, I am. We're in a pretty favorable circumstance in this game, and I haven't been able to figure out much other than Thanos.

Bugger: Very clever, Chuck. If we say no, it's supicious and we get more votes on us. If we say yes, we get more votes on us.
...you must suspect me more than you let on.
As far as am I willing to die this round to prove my point? Well, I've finally gotten around to reading the twenty-odd posts of back and forth between you and GLE, and you make I think a very good point AFA his R2 behavior and the R2 kill. So honestly? I'd rather see GLE go hang under the tree in the town square than myself right now.

Page 7:

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Bugger: I'll go to the gallows gladly- for the good of the poggle .

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Why was this issue so hard for Bugger not to just say “Yes I would be.” Like in page 7 he was not as much under scrutiny then, but he was gladly willing then but not now?

As you have stated in the past PD it’s the team that wins no matter alive or lynched or shredded that matters, am I correct?

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Bugger…I haven't been very happy with my play so far this game and I'd be fine with just cutting my losses, looking back on things to improve, and devoting my energy to doing better next time.

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Tho you have been lynched or shredded as a villager in the past, I have never seen this side of you… maybe you have a new role? And to say "next time" not "next game"
I hope you see what I am saying here, implying that the next TIME you are a ww...you will improve that part of your gaming style.

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Bugger…I'm also going to do something that at first blush sounds melodramatic: I'm going to vote for myself. The benefit of this is that when my name is posthumously cleared, the piles will be overall more even and hopefully more easy to analyse (by shrinking what would be the largest one). So while I don't want to start chiseling my initials into the tombstone just yet, so to speak, (the round ain't over yet) I'll say it now: I would be glad to die for the benefit of the town.

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Page 7

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Bugger…So: Go ahead and lynch me if you must. Seriously. I'm not going to make a melodramatic martyr move (m cubed?) like Chuck would and vote for myself to prove a point

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Very back and forth with this game bugger.

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PD…Bugger is brilliant (and dangerous) and as much as I suspect his R1 opinion of BOT, I still don't see anything convincing. Liq's arguments against Bugger are really weak and Bugger dealt with them handily, but I am surprised to see Liq put forth such a weak argument.

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I would think that his answer to sac himself for the good of the poggle would sway you on a Bugger vote this round PD, I think your game relation with Bugger has clouded you to details that are in front of you, along with you argument with GLE.

With that sed and quoted, I am submitting a new vote for Bugger

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Originally posted by fwybwed:

you… maybe you have a new role? And to say "next time" not "next game"
I hope you see what I am saying here, implying that the next TIME you are a ww...you will improve that part of your gaming style.
Page 7 Very back and forth with this game bugger.

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ROFLMAO.
I see why you don't think Liq's argument is terrible... because yours is just as absurd. Whoa, I said next *time* instead of next *game*??? Stop the presses!

WRT my vote: I need to learn to stop posting on sunday afternoons or, barring that, figure out a better way to occupy my time. Yesterday I was messy and all over the place and I think the only way I can stop that is to take a short break from the thread. Not a very long break, just a day or two where I won't post every chance I get. More often than not I've discovered I end up posting poorly-thought-out, rambling messes that don't do anyone good. Thus this will probably be my last post before the lynch. I could use a day to decompress, so to speak. Keeping my nose on the thread doesn't help at all and mostly hinders my game. I don't really care anymore about how many people suspect me, if I get lynched then I've been lynched, oh well. No point in helping them along. I think I should apologize for doing yesterday what I profess to detest when PD does it. I'm not voting for myself.
So, in the event that I *do* get lynched tonight, I'll once again say my two suspects are Bernek and GLE for wolves, with Bernek possibly a bit higher. I don't have the time right now to go over it all again, but most of my posts on saturday and early sunday contain my reasons for suspicion.
That being said, I'm switching my vote to Bernek and keeping it there. Seriously.

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Originally posted by Bugger:
ROFLMAO.
I see why you don't think Liq's argument is terrible... because yours is just as absurd. Whoa, I said next *time* instead of next *game*??? Stop the presses!

WRT my vote: I need to learn to stop posting on sunday afternoons or, barring that, figure out a better way to occupy my time. Yesterday I was messy and all over the place and I think the only way I can stop that is to take a short break from the thread. Not a very long break, just a day or two where I won't post every chance I get. More often than not I've discovered I end up posting poorly-thought-out, rambling messes that don't do anyone good. Thus this will probably be my last post before the lynch. I could use a day to decompress, so to speak. Keeping my nose on the thread doesn't help at all and mostly hinders my game. I don't really care anymore about how many people suspect me, if I get lynched then I've been lynched, oh well. No point in helping them along. I think I should apologize for doing yesterday what I profess to detest when PD does it. I'm not voting for myself.
So, in the event that I *do* get lynched tonight, I'll once again say my two suspects are Bernek and GLE for wolves, with Bernek possibly a bit higher. I don't have the time right now to go over it all again, but most of my posts on saturday and early sunday contain my reasons for suspicion.
That being said, I'm switching my vote to Bernek and keeping it there. Seriously.

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Hmmmm Wow what happened to the martyr? Is it that it will bring it back to a tie. Or is it the fact that you might actually get voted off and we will all see you for the wolf you really are. I have no problem being a martyr there bugger. Neither does GLE why the 2 people you suspect are willing to die to win this game as a team. But as the GOOD GUYS!

I have a real issue still with Xplicitr. After all the arguing with Bugger they all of a sudden are buddy buddy and working together to get me lynched. Does no one else not find this odd?

It's voting day and I have and wonder why we haven't heard from ToL, Masterwolf or Almaster.

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
I do not think this is a bad argument at all… as this is pretty much what asked Bugger about earlier and why I had my suspicions of him.

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
Why was this issue so hard for Bugger not to just say “Yes I would be.” Like in page 7 he was not as much under scrutiny then, but he was gladly willing then but not now? [...] Tho you have been lynched or shredded as a villager in the past, I have never seen this side of you… maybe you have a new role? And to say "next time" not "next game"
I hope you see what I am saying here, implying that the next TIME you are a ww...you will improve that part of your gaming style.

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I like you fwy, but you appear to be unable to evaluate evidence objectively.

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
I would think that his answer to sac himself for the good of the poggle would sway you on a Bugger vote this round PD, I think your game relation with Bugger has clouded you to details that are in front of you, along with you argument with GLE.

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However, I am also aware of this and I am making a conscious effort to prevent it from clouding my thinking. Can you say the same? Forget the names for a moment and consider this objectively.

ROUND 1:
Player A, low to mid tier player, commits the "trying to be helpful" error in the pregame.

Player B, low to mid tier player, drops seer hints R1 in response to pile forming on him.

Player C, (solid "up and coming" player) is unconvinced by the arguments against player A, and along with TEN other players doesn't vote for him. Along with ELEVEN other players he also ends up not voting for player B, the hinting seer.

Player D, (top tier player, #2 in pecking order) ALSO doesn't vote for suspicious player A, and (with five other players, one of which is player A) votes for the hinting seer. Given his experience there's no way this player missed the clues given by both A & B.

OUTCOME:
Player A is lynched and revealed as wolf leader.
Another player is killed by the wolves leaving player B alive.

ROUND 2:
While player B (the hinting seer), and player C both vote together with a suspected cit and a confirmed cit for a suspicious party, player D insinuates that player B is worthy of a vote. But does not declare and does not press the issue. But DOES vote for him.

OUTCOME:
Innocent (but suspicious to EIGHT players) player is voted off.
Player B, hinting seer, is eaten thanks to an inattentive angel.

Player C is repeatedly needled over his lack of a vote for Player A, but never apparently credited for his lack of a vote for player B. He steadfastly maintains that he simply didn't think (like 10 other players) that Player A was all that suspicious.

Now player D, the all star, who saw the hints and voted against the seer twice claims he was trying to draw out the wolves to vocally wagon on the seer. How do you draw someone out by not declaring? When this is pointed out the response is "good for you" and an explanation that the strategy was multi-round.

I submit to you that if player C seems more suspicious than player D, then something is clouding your judgment. Wonder what that could be?

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
...That last post was a lie, I do have another read: I think fwyb is a cit...

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Here we have Thanos making his big reveal:

217. May-06 06:19 PM: Thanos - Votes JSP, trusts PGB, suspects GLE. Will post more later. - (ref: GLE, Jack, PGB)

And GLE's first post after this?

241. May-07 02:54 PM: GottaLoveElves - Most suspicious of Thanos for jumping on BOT wagon. Mild suspicion of JSP. Minor suspicions of PGB & MW. - (ref: BOT, Jack, MW, PGB, Tnos)

After the seer confirms PGB, GLE suspects PGB?

Listen, I agree that there is a case to be made against Bugger. I'm concerned that we have at least 1 strong wolf, and we have two all-star players of which one makes a case for Bugger and the other has time to make a dozen posts this round but hasn't listed anything that qualifies as a declaration of suspicion or vote (IMO).

GLE's no dummy. He knows if Bugger dies now, another GLE-voter is going to die tonight (please don't ask me to explain who, our angel is confused enough--there will be no angel saves this game) and next round there will be two less players who suspect him. As long as GLE doesn't come out and strongly denounce Bugger (which he has not) it doesn't look like it is GLE's his fault that Bugger got lynched, so he is safe next round.

Bugger's made an argument for who you should vote for, and went so far as to vote for himself until others told him not to. His argument against Bernek isn't great simply because Bernek is such a random quantity it's hard to pin him down for anything that would typically condemn others. Being emotional? Yeah but this is Bernek. Argument makes no sense? Yeah but this is Bernek. And so on.

Liq's made an argument for who you should vote for, and his argument is pretty weak. Some of it is simply bad reasoning and misinterpretation. About the only thing of consequence he has is that Bugger didn't suspect BOT (along with 10 other players).

You've made an argument for who to vote for which is no better than Liq's.

And then there's GLE who while simultaneously saying he is willing to go to the gallows, encourages people to only vote for him if they really think he is a wolf. All GLE has made is an argument why you shouldn't vote for him (at length)--exactly as a wolf would do. But he hasn't made an argument who you should vote FOR--given all the time he's had for these other posts, I find that pretty darn peculiar looks to me like he can see he's going to survive the round and therefore wants to be able to say "I didn't say you should vote for that cit" next round.

So here's what I'm going to do. Right now my vote stays on GLE. I'll check back in tonight and see if there is any hope of him getting hanged (which depends on people showing up and declaring) and if there isn't I may switch my vote to the vote-getter whom I deem most suspicious to try to prevent the wolves from saving that player--this may end up being bugger depending on how the votes lie.

Regardless, I hope you guys will think about this next round. I know a lot of people just skim over or ignore my lengthy posts, and I apologize for the prolixity.

Here's a new set of piles to think about--

Pile 1: Bernek, TOL, Bugger, GLE, Liq, fwy.
Pile 2: AGM, Bernie, MW, XPR
Pile 3: PGB, PD

I think it likely there are two wolves in pile 1. I think there's at least some chance that there is one wolf in pile 1 and 1 in pile 2. I think it unlikely there are two wolves in pile 2. There are no wolves in pile 3.

Why people are members of pile 1:
* Bernek - BOT voter, carrying on to excess about Thanos' role
* TOL - BOT voter, named by BOT as "suspicious"
* Bugger - missed BOT's wolfhint
* GLE - voted for seer twice (after seerhints dropped), suspected cleared player, shabby defense, strong player
* Liq - named by BOT as "suspicious", strong player, making bad arguments
* fwy - named as cit by GLE

Further, on pile 1:
* If GLE is a wolf, then fwy probably is a wolf.
* If Liq is a wolf, then the other wolf could be GLE or maybe TOL.
* If Bugger is a wolf, then Bernek is probably not and one of GLE/Liq/TOL probably are.
* If Bernek is a wolf, then Bugger/Fwy/TOL are probably not and one of GLE/Liq probably are.
* If fwy is a wolf, then GLE is probably a wolf.
* If TOL is a wolf, then Bernek and Liq are probably not wolves, and one of GLE/Bugger/fwy probably are.

For my part, if I were to order these players from most suspicious to least:

* GLE, fwy, Bugger, Liq, TOL, Bernek

On Pile 2:
* These players are operating under the radar mostly, of them, the two that probably bear inspection are AGM (because he is very capable) and MW.
* BernieB's game seems completely in-character.
* XPR's game would be atrocious for a wolf, ergo he is probably a cit. The possibility that he is a wolf being instructed to play atrociously by the acting wolf leader is nonzero, but unlikely.

Pile 3 is the people I think are cits obviously, and of course you must draw your own conclusions here.

{SUMMARY: suspects GLE more than any other player, where is GLE's suspect list? Things to think on next round.}
{VOTING: GLE (voted seer twice, suspected PGB after cleared)}
{SUSPECT: Bernek (being Bernek, BOT voter)}
{SUSPECT: Bugger (didn't suspect BOT)}
{SUSPECT: fwy (named cit by GLE)}
{SUSPECT: Liq (named by BOT, bad arguments, strong player)}
{SUSPECT: TOL (named by BOT, BOT voter)}

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Originally posted by Bernek77:
Hmmmm Wow what happened to the martyr? Is it that it will bring it back to a tie. Or is it the fact that you might actually get voted off and we will all see you for the wolf you really are. I have no problem being a martyr there bugger. Neither does GLE why the 2 people you suspect are willing to die to win this game as a team. But as the GOOD GUYS!

I have a real issue still with Xplicitr. After all the arguing with Bugger they all of a sudden are buddy buddy and working together to get me lynched. Does no one else not find this odd?

It's voting day and I have and wonder why we haven't heard from ToL, Masterwolf or Almaster.

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Ugh. This is as bad as Liq asking "why is it you seem to think you'll survive the wolf kill" on the most inconsequential turns of phrase. GLE knowingly votes for the seer twice, and that's jim dandy, Bugger self-votes and says "next TIME" instead of "next GAME" and that's damning?

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GLE has explained at length the reason for that decision; just because you don't buy it doesn't mean it's unexplained.
Although I agree that the trip Bugger made was a pretty loose reason to go in that direction.

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
And then there's GLE who while simultaneously saying he is willing to go to the gallows, encourages people to only vote for him if they really think he is a wolf.

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Perhaps my definition of "going to the gallows" is different than yours; I think it's dumb to not defend myself. But I am willing to go in the sense that I'm saying a me-vote isn't a terrible idea. With many weighing on what they think I am as well as myself throwing a few names around (with more of that to come now), there's plenty to be found out.

Meanwhile, as for who I do suspect?

Masterwolf seems to have chimed in and disappeared at what I'd call all of the right times, with a generally suspect voting record. The reason I haven't made an argument is that it would be very easy for a cit to play with this, and I haven't been in a game with MW where we've both lived long enough for me to have a good read on him.

Bernek is an oddity for sure, but again, my read on him sucks because he's always out to lunch in terms of outspokenness and excitability.

PlasteredDragon I definitely have the most to think on, and I have a moderate suspicion--but a full pro and con list for. All the zeal he's attacking my character with is pretty suspect to me (but obviously, I have to die for that to ring with anyone else), and I still think it's pretty possible that he threw a vote at BoT to say he wasn't on the Thanos wagon, and when that picked up momentum, it was too late to change without being hella-suspicious. But, on the other hand, I assume PD plays a wolf like I do, expecting a seer to know his role, and I doubt he'd really want to take the risk of voting one of his own because any credit he'd get for that risk would be destroyed by a high percentage seer play.

I've said already that my instincts have absolutely sucked this game, and I haven't been able to read anyone other than Thanos = seer. The reason I haven't announced any real suspicions this round is because they're all weak, and I've got PD & Bugger just waiting on a post I make to tear it apart and explain why it means I'm a wolf.
I'm not announcing a vote yet, either: if it looks like a landslide death for me, I'll probably just stay out of the piles so as not to frig up analysis in the later rounds and vote for PD or Masterwolf alone. If it looks like it's going to be close, I'll be voting the counterwagon because whatever that counterwagon is, it's higher than a 0-percentage play (unlike a self-vote or ambivalent vote).

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
GLE has explained at length the reason for that decision; just because you don't buy it doesn't mean it's unexplained.

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
Masterwolf seems to have chimed in and disappeared at what I'd call all of the right times, with a generally suspect voting record. The reason I haven't made an argument is that it would be very easy for a cit to play with this, and I haven't been in a game with MW where we've both lived long enough for me to have a good read on him.

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
Bernek is an oddity for sure, but again, my read on him sucks because he's always out to lunch in terms of outspokenness and excitability.

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Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
PlasteredDragon I definitely have the most to think on, and I have a moderate suspicion--but a full pro and con list for. All the zeal he's attacking my character with is pretty suspect to me (but obviously, I have to die for that to ring with anyone else), and I still think it's pretty possible that he threw a vote at BoT to say he wasn't on the Thanos wagon, and when that picked up momentum, it was too late to change without being hella-suspicious. But, on the other hand, I assume PD plays a wolf like I do, expecting a seer to know his role, and I doubt he'd really want to take the risk of voting one of his own because any credit he'd get for that risk would be destroyed by a high percentage seer play.

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I think you will likely not be lynched this round. I'll continue to follow the game in the remaining rounds--it's going to be interesting to see if you can avoid being lynched in subsequent rounds. You're certainly capable of doing so.

{SUMMARY: responds to GLE, expects him to survive to next round.}

EDIT: thought GLE's susp of PD was without caveats, but it also has a caveat.

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
Actually its BernieB, Bugger and me, does that mean there are 3 wolves left in the game? Whoa you might be onto something.

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OK let me try to simplify things. I stated that the 2 of you(Bugger and Xplicitr) had words early on in this game. Now the 2 of you(Bugger and Xplicitr) are working together(Meaning the 2 of you: see above). I stated that the 2 of you(Bugger and xplicitr) are trying to build a wagon against me. I did not bring up Bernie due to I am not all that suspicious of him just yet. Small out of character game for me in regards to him. But my argument was against the 2 of you(Bugger and Xplicitr).

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

I'm also not a fan of the "lynch me next round" move that Bugger made. That never happens. I think Bugger knows this. He brings the heat on himself for one round knowing momentum will surely switch by this time next round. I'd rather off him now.

And bad arguments lynch wolves as often as good ones do. I wouldn't call the argument for BoT a good one, just good enough. He just isn't as skilled at defending himself as Bugger is.

And I've said this a lot of times before. This isn't a murder trial. This is werewolf. If a wolf plays tight but has only minor slipups that don't result in strong cases against them, do we just let them win? I know I keep bringing this up game after game, but it backs up my argument game after game. PD was a wolf, and GLE sniffed him out off the bat. It wasn't because of a huge glaring error, but a really minor play that PD made. It resulted in a huge back in forth that wound up lynching GLE. PD is just better at constructing argument and exposing flaws in the arguments of others in this game, and that includes GLE. I tried to take down PD next round with another weak argument of my own, but was foiled and I was lynched. I admit the argument was weak, but that's because PD is a really tight player and never left himself open.

@PD Awhile back, you asked me if I thought a wolf was in the BoT pile. Honestly, I don't think there is. I think the wolves were confident enough in the 8 votes on Thanos, that they didn't want switch and chance being the straw that broke BoT's back. Also, the fact that they killed Jaz suggests that they don't really care about keeping the pile large. At least, I'm sure we can all agree, if there is a wolf in the BoT pile, it is almost certainly just 1. *If* there's a wolf in this pile, my bet lies with you, PD.

Mostly though, I think the other two wolves are in the other 3 piles, but I'm not sure about the spread. From the Thanos pile, I do not suspect PGB or XPR. I voted for XPR last round simply because I got on the boards late, (past voting time) and I was struck that no one asked him why he didn't bother switching. My vote assured that I got an answer, and coupled with the fact that his initial 'slip-up' was very un-wolf-like, I think his answer is satisfactory.

I think I'm going to go ahead and vote with PGB (The player I trust most) for Bugger mainly for seeing nothing wrong with BoT's initial post, among other reasons listed this round. PGB, the *argument* for lynching BoT may not have been good, but the *reason* was. I maintain that his post was nothing less than a slip-up, and no amount of argument, regardless of the quality, would have deterred me from that vote.

1. Trusts PGB, most likely seered him....
2. Suspicious of GLE, could not have seered him

you have based your argument on this... and that is weak

There is only one person I trust here and that is PGB. As for your suspicion of GLE that is based off of what... what thanos stated...not good.

As for GLE been a wolf, that makes me one too? wow now you are reaching PD.

quote:

---

PD...I like you fwy, but you appear to be unable to evaluate evidence objectively.

---

and yet you admit to your clouded vision of Bugger.

I am adding you to my list only cuz of this fact that you refuse to look at bugger in another light.

quote:

---

I concede that because I like Bugger so much, I don't want him to be a wolf, and there is a risk of that clouding my thinking.
However, I am also aware of this and I am making a conscious effort to prevent it from clouding my thinking. Can you say the same?

---

Why would i say anything like this...I have no firends in ww as i trust no one until i have fact (Seer)PGB is the only one ill trust as of now.

I want clarify one thing:

Can u please post links to thanos posts and GLE posts dont leave anything out please. And bernek 77 and Bugger to actually

that would be great.

Fwy

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
Your main argument is that Thanos

1. Trusts PGB, most likely seered him....
2. Suspicious of GLE, could not have seered him

you have based your argument on this... and that is weak

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
As for GLE been a wolf, that makes me one too? wow now you are reaching PD.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
and yet you admit to your clouded vision of Bugger.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
I am adding you to my list only cuz of this fact that you refuse to look at bugger in another light.

---

When voting time rolls around, if I am forced to choose between Bugger and Bernek, I'll vote Bugger--he's more suspicious than Bernek. So much for your penetrating insight. KTHXBAI.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
Can u please post links to thanos posts and GLE posts dont leave anything out please. And bernek 77 and Bugger to actually

---

{SUMMARY: responds to fwy.}

044. Apr-28 01:34 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
045. Apr-28 01:35 PM: banter - (ref: MW)
084. May-02 05:47 AM: Re: PGB#81 - Love you too PGB. Will post later. - (ref: PGB)
089. May-02 09:39 AM: This is a new game. What does the last game have to do with it? - (ref: Bug)
093. May-02 10:51 AM: Better to vote someone suspicious rather than someone who made a bad call. Voting BOT. - (ref: BOT)
100. May-03 05:59 AM: I strongly suggest you don't vote for me. [SEER] - (ref: nobody)
105. May-03 11:14 AM: Suggests votes move off him. Thinks Bugger's doing the same thing he did. - (ref: Bug)
123. May-03 03:26 PM: Voting BOT, think it's silly for people to vote based on past performance. "Let me stay a couple rounds" [SEER] - (ref: BOT)
137. May-04 08:10 AM: Re: PGB#129 - you must have me confused with someone else - (ref: PGB)
217. May-06 06:19 PM: Votes JSP, trusts PGB, suspects GLE. Will post more later. - (ref: GLE, Jack, PGB)
239. May-07 02:11 PM: PD, please post tally? - (ref: PD)
245. May-07 03:23 PM: Thank you PD, submitted for JackSpade - (ref: Jack, PD)
267. May-08 01:03 PM: Teases Bernek. - (ref: Bernk)
278. May-08 06:33 PM: agrees with PD - (ref: PD)
339. May-10 06:49 PM: joking around - (ref: nobody)

Posts By GLE:

005. Apr-26 05:05 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
027. Apr-27 01:55 PM: banter - (ref: Jaz, PD)
034. Apr-27 09:29 PM: banter - (ref: nobody)
039. Apr-28 01:12 PM: banter - (ref: nobody)
061. Apr-30 04:29 PM: asking about insults in MM#58 - (ref: Bernk)
064. Apr-30 04:41 PM: oh yeah, Monty, how could I forget - (ref: nobody)
088. May-02 09:20 AM: Basically agrees on Thanos, but concerned about providing an easy wagon. Votes Thanos. - (ref: Tnos)
150. May-04 03:45 PM: Thinks PD's rhyming is a "scheme". - (ref: PD, Tnos)
151. May-04 03:48 PM: Thinks fwyb is a cit. - (ref: fwy, PD)
173. May-05 07:57 AM: Thanos vote now great idea. Softens stance on PD. XPR a cipher. PM issue is pretty minor. - (ref: BOT, GLE, PD, Tnos, xplicit)
241. May-07 02:54 PM: Most suspicious of Thanos for jumping on BOT wagon. Mild suspicion of JSP. Minor suspicions of PGB & MW. - (ref: BOT, Jack, MW, PGB, Tnos)
289. May-09 10:35 AM: Defends himself - was attempting to bait wolves. Thinks there is probably a wolf in BOT pile. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, GLE, Jack, Jaz, PD, Tnos, TOL)
292. May-09 12:35 PM: Continues defense of himself. - (ref: AGM, fwy, GLE, Jaz, PD)
297. May-09 01:39 PM: Continues defense, says he had to go through with his vote or the wolves might not have believed it. - (ref: PD, Tnos)
301. May-09 01:56 PM: Thanos strategy was multi-round strategy. - (ref: GLE, PD, Tnos)
302. May-09 02:03 PM: Never thought PD was the angel. - (ref: PD)
306. May-09 02:34 PM: Continues defense. - (ref: GLE, PD, Tnos)
308. May-09 03:43 PM: Continues defense - Steve the wolf as example. - (ref: PD, Tnos)
311. May-09 04:57 PM: Maintains position. - (ref: GLE, PD, Tnos)
325. May-10 01:43 PM: Willing to be lynched. - (ref: Tnos)
327. May-10 02:41 PM: Doesn't like the GLE this round Bugger next strategy. - (ref: BOT, Bug, PD)
329. May-10 03:13 PM: Argues with Bugger. - (ref: Bug, GLE)
341. May-10 07:22 PM: Argues with Bugger about self-vote. - (ref: Bug)
349. May-11 07:33 AM: Defends self. Names suspects: MW, Bernek, PD. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, Bug, GLE, MW, PD, Tnos)

Posts By Bernek77:

042. Apr-28 01:28 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
067. Apr-30 08:22 PM: discouraged - (ref: Bernk, GLE)
092. May-02 10:32 AM: Agrees Thanos' play style is bad for the cits, but finds BOT post #72 most suspicious. - (ref: BOT, Tnos)
140. May-04 11:13 AM: Do not muse about the angel. Voted BOT. Joking around with MW. - (ref: BOT, MW, Tnos)
163. May-04 10:00 PM: Gather names brought up by BoT as possible innocents. - (ref: BOT)
166. May-04 10:41 PM: Don’t talk about seer or angel. PD didn't you rhyme in WW3 or 4? - (ref: PD, Tnos)
174. May-05 07:59 AM: Suspects Bugger for changing vote from Thanos and not suspecting BoT. - (ref: BOT, Bug, Tnos)
201. May-06 09:16 AM: When something goes unnoticed drop it! - (ref: nobody)
203. May-06 09:30 AM: I don't care anymore! Vote for me. - (ref: fwy)
209. May-06 09:59 AM: Responds to MW. Will calm down eventually. - (ref: MW, PD)
231. May-07 12:32 PM: Votes XPR because of the correlation between players who argue with him, and wolf kills. (ryan, Jaz) - (ref: Bug, Jaz, ryan, xplicit)
237. May-07 01:42 PM: Thinks Bugger/XPR feud involves at least 1 wolf. Notes XPR was not wolf leader for RYN kill. - (ref: AGM, BOT, Bug, fwy, PD, ryan, xplicit)
260. May-08 10:16 AM: Gets upset that discussion of Thanos as angel continues. - (ref: nobody)
272. May-08 01:23 PM: Continues to complain about spilled milk. - (ref: nobody)
274. May-08 05:02 PM: Continues to rant. - (ref: Bug, PD, xplicit)
294. May-09 01:02 PM: Votes XPR. Suspects Bugger. Thinks argument between them contrived. - (ref: BOT, Bug, Jaz, PD, Tnos, xplicit)
313. May-09 07:57 PM: Argues with Bugger. - (ref: BOT, Bug, Tnos)
320. May-10 09:38 AM: Argues with Bugger. Calls out Bernie & MW - (ref: BOT, BernB, Bug, GLE, MW, PGB, Tnos, xplicit)
322. May-10 10:50 AM: Casts suspicion on Bernie. - (ref: BernB, PGB)
330. May-10 03:20 PM: Votes bugger for not being willing to go first. - (ref: BOT, Bug, GLE, PD, Tnos, TOL, xplicit)
333. May-10 04:52 PM: How do you know Bugger is a villager? - (ref: Bug, GLE, xplicit)
336. May-10 05:07 PM: Argues with Bugger. - (ref: BOT, Bug, PD)
346. May-11 05:48 AM: What happened to the martyr? GLE & Bernek are the good guys. Suspects XPR. Calls out TOL, MW, AGM. - (ref: AGM, Bug, GLE, MW, TOL, xplicit)
352. May-11 10:31 AM: Clarifies he is suspicious of XPR because Bugger and XPR fight might have been staged. - (ref: BernB, Bug, xplicit)

Posts By Bugger:

002. Apr-26 04:10 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
007. Apr-26 05:24 PM: joking around - (ref: MW)
017. Apr-27 04:57 AM: joking around - (ref: Jack, PD)
020. Apr-27 08:39 AM: joking around - (ref: PD)
023. Apr-27 12:10 PM: banter - (ref: ryan)
029. Apr-27 01:59 PM: banter - (ref: GLE)
036. Apr-28 09:03 AM: banter - (ref: Jaz, PD)
040. Apr-28 01:16 PM: banter - (ref: Bug, GLE)
046. Apr-28 01:37 PM: Only 1 more needed - (ref: nobody)
052. Apr-29 05:03 AM: so… are we good? - (ref: nobody)
054. Apr-30 04:45 AM: MM? - (ref: nobody)
066. Apr-30 07:40 PM: Re: XPR#62 - Geez, dude. Preemptive much? - (ref: xplicit)
079. May-01 08:11 PM: Upset at ryan's departure, will post later - (ref: AGM, PD, ryan)
083. May-02 05:33 AM: Agrees with PGB#81. Voting Thanos. - (ref: PGB, Tnos)
087. May-02 09:12 AM: Reminds Bernie of R5 in WW9. - (ref: BernB, Tnos)
095. May-02 01:45 PM: Why is wagon forming on BOT? Re: Liq#94 - PGB not OOC and behaving as promised in WW8. - (ref: BOT, Liq, PGB, Tnos)
103. May-03 09:41 AM: Thanos pile too big. Switching to JackSpade who's posts seem "off". - (ref: BOT, Jack, Tnos)
110. May-03 11:40 AM: Disagrees with AGM#104 and TNOS#105. - (ref: AGM, Tnos)
112. May-03 11:51 AM: JSP''s posts are inconsistent. - (ref: AGM, Bug, Jack, Tnos, TOL)
124. May-03 03:30 PM: Discusses pile analysis and manipulation with AGM. - (ref: AGM, BernB, Bug, fwy, Jack, Liq, PD, Tnos, xplicit)
132. May-04 05:00 AM: XPR is arrogant (and hypocritical) - (ref: xplicit)
138. May-04 08:51 AM: arguing with XPR - (ref: MW, Tnos, xplicit)
145. May-04 01:41 PM: Gives up on XPR. - (ref: xplicit)
153. May-04 04:37 PM: Tells XPR to calm down and back off. - (ref: AGM, xplicit)
155. May-04 04:54 PM: Holy ****! PM'ing not cool! Thank heavens it wasn't the seer. One of the BOT voters is a WW. - (ref: AGM, BOT)
170. May-05 04:59 AM: Defends self and explains suspicion of JSP. - (ref: BOT, Jack, PD, PGB, Tnos)
175. May-05 09:01 AM: On PD's poetry. Thinks PD a cit. Teases Bernek. Suspects JSP. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, Bug, GLE, Jack, Liq, PD, Tnos)
182. May-05 01:41 PM: Explains himself. - (ref: AGM, BOT, Bug, GLE, Jack, Liq, PD, PGB, Tnos)
183. May-05 01:45 PM: Responds to PGB's assertion about what BOT said. - (ref: BOT, PGB)
186. May-05 05:31 PM: where's the kill MM? - (ref: nobody)
189. May-05 07:43 PM: interesting -- analysis tomorrow - (ref: nobody)
200. May-06 08:36 AM: Discusses Thanos kill and suspicions. - (ref: everybody but Bug, ryan)
204. May-06 09:35 AM: @ bernek: what are you talking about? - (ref: Bernk)
214. May-06 05:20 PM: Expounds summary tags to XPR - (ref: xplicit)
216. May-06 05:41 PM: AGM makes good point about JackSpade,must further correct about summary tags - (ref: AGM, Jack, PD, PGB)
228. May-07 09:05 AM: Never defended BOT, just didn't see anything suspicious there. - (ref: BOT, Liq, PD)
240. May-07 02:36 PM: Rebuttal/response to JackSpade and fwybwed - (ref: AGM, Bug, fwy, Jack, PGB)
244. May-07 03:22 PM: Aaah, that makes more sense. - (ref: fwy)
250. May-07 07:35 PM: This is unfortunate. Oh well, it's only R2… - (ref: nobody)
258. May-08 09:42 AM: Unimpressed with XPR's response. - (ref: Tnos, xplicit)
261. May-08 10:22 AM: Bernek why are you so upset? - (ref: Bernk)
264. May-08 12:48 PM: Responds to Bernek. - (ref: Bernk, PD)
268. May-08 01:11 PM: Continues to interrogate XPR. - (ref: Liq, Tnos, xplicit)
271. May-08 01:20 PM: waaah @ nder - (ref: nobody)
279. May-08 06:43 PM: agrees with PD, will post analysis later - (ref: PD)
286. May-09 07:51 AM: Psychograph. Middle-tier players deserve attn. - (ref: AGM, Bernk, fwy, GLE, Jaz, MW, PD, ryan, Tnos, xplicit)
293. May-09 12:52 PM: Expanded psychograph, suspects GLE and Bernek. - (ref: everybody but Bug, Liq)
295. May-09 01:08 PM: Bernek is setting off his alarms. - (ref: Bernk)
312. May-09 07:31 PM: Believes Bernek fits psychograph and that his behavior is inconsistent with his claims. - (ref: Bernk, BernB, Tnos)
317. May-10 06:31 AM: Shreds Liq's argument. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, Bug, GLE, Jack, Liq, PD, Tnos, xplicit)
319. May-10 08:15 AM: airs some unanswered/unfinished questions,posts suspicions. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, GLE, Liq, PD, PGB, Tnos, TOL, xplicit)
326. May-10 02:32 PM: Suspects GLE as much as Bernek, would rather see GLE go to gallows, but would be willing to sac himself next round. - (ref: Bernk, Bug, GLE, Liq, PD)
328. May-10 03:04 PM: Argues with GLE. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, GLE, PD, Tnos)
331. May-10 04:32 PM: Voting bugger - (ref: Bernk, Bug, GLE, Liq, PD)
334. May-10 04:57 PM: Bernek & I even in vote count. - (ref: Bernk, Bug, GLE, PD, xplicit)
335. May-10 05:02 PM: Mocking Bernek. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, Bug, GLE, xplicit)
345. May-11 04:55 AM: Retracts self vote. Votes Bernek. Suspects GLE. - (ref: Bernk, fwy, GLE, Liq, PD)

Heh... THAT will keep you busy. And for completeness:

Posts By fwybwed:

004. Apr-26 04:55 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
013. Apr-26 08:50 PM: joking around - (ref: Jack)
130. May-04 02:16 AM: Journal of Fwybwed - Voting AGM, thinks Tnos is special and AGM deliberately ignoring that. - (ref: AGM, fwy, Tnos)
169. May-05 01:38 AM: Dumps on Bugger for switching his vote, and pile analysis in general. - (ref: Bug, GLE)
194. May-05 09:35 PM: Journal of Fwybwed - Voting PGB. Suspects Bugger & XPR for speaking against suspicion of BOT. - (ref: BOT, Bug, fwy, Jaz, PGB, ryan, Tnos, xplicit)
202. May-06 09:27 AM: Annoyed by Bernek. - (ref: Bernk, fwy)
210. May-06 10:19 AM: joking around with Bernek - (ref: Bernk)
230. May-07 10:30 AM: Thinks Bugger protective of BOT, OOC. Also OOC in his interaction with Bernek. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, Bug, PGB, Tnos)
236. May-07 01:38 PM: Disagrees with B77#231, votes Bugger. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, Bug, fwy, Jaz, PD, PGB, xplicit)
243. May-07 03:19 PM: Clarifies his point on Bernek. - (ref: Bernk, Bug, fwy)
252. May-07 10:53 PM: Responds to MW. - (ref: fwy, MW)
282. May-08 10:59 PM: Suspect Bugger and B77 - (ref: BOT, Bernk, Bug, Jack, PD, Tnos, TOL, xplicit)
291. May-09 12:11 PM: Bugger & B77 more suspicious than GLE. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, Bug, fwy, GLE, PD, PGB, Tnos, TOL)
304. May-09 02:23 PM: Unconvinced by Bernek, wants to see PD's baiting. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, PD, Tnos)
344. May-10 11:15 PM: Voting Bugger, suspects Bernek. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, Bug, GLE, Liq, PD, Tnos)
355. May-11 11:18 AM: Argues with PD -- misses point entirely. - (ref: Bernk, Bug, fwy, GLE, PD, PGB, Tnos)

Posts By ThoughtsOfLepers:

031. Apr-27 05:06 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
091. May-02 09:55 AM: Votes BOT for odd post #72. - (ref: BOT, Tnos)
107. May-03 11:37 AM: Thinks BoT's post #72 is odd. Comments on several players posts. Doesn't like the big Thanos pile. - (ref: BOT, Bug, fwy, Jack, PD, Tnos)
111. May-03 11:44 AM: TOL#107 editted. - (ref: nobody)
117. May-03 01:21 PM: Implores Jasper to vote elsewhere. - (ref: fwy, Jack, Tnos)
207. May-06 09:50 AM: Was unable to get on yesterday. Hooray @ wolf lynching! Will post later. - (ref: nobody)
248. May-07 07:08 PM: Voted XPR for voting Thanos. - (ref: Tnos, xplicit)
354. May-11 11:00 AM: Doesn't suspect PGB or XPR. Suspects PD as best bet for wolf in BOT pile. Going to vote bugger because PGB is voting Bugger. - (ref: BOT, Bug, Jaz, PD, PGB, Tnos, xplicit)

Posts By Liq:

018. Apr-27 07:34 AM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
080. May-01 09:50 PM: Voting BOT, high suspects BOT, PD, GLE - (ref: everybody but Liq, ryan)
094. May-02 01:18 PM: Voting PGB. High suspects: PD, GLE, Bugger, Bernek. - (ref: everybody but Liq, ryan)
115. May-03 01:10 PM: PD's current posting style has me concerned. Can't tell if he's serious. - (ref: everybody but Liq, ryan)
136. May-04 08:04 AM: updated suspicions - (ref: everybody but Liq, ryan)
196. May-06 12:22 AM: Voting JackSpade. Susp List. Explains retracted vote for BOT. - (ref: everybody but Liq)
221. May-06 11:59 PM: Posts suspicion list. - (ref: everybody but Jaz, Liq, ryan)
246. May-07 04:01 PM: Suspicion list, voting JSP. Top suspects Bugger, PD, GLE. - (ref: everybody but BOT, Jaz, Liq, ryan)
283. May-09 12:36 AM: Suspicion list. Voting GLE, suspects Bugger. - (ref: everybody but Jack, Liq)
288. May-09 10:03 AM: Explains his use of variables and analysis. - (ref: GLE, PD, TOL)
315. May-10 12:21 AM: Voting Bugger. Worried about PD. Unexplained link to WW4. - (ref: BOT, Bug, Liq, PD, PGB, Tnos, xplicit)
340. May-10 07:14 PM: Clarifies, somewhat, largely doesn't respond to critiques. - (ref: BOT, Bug, GLE, Liq, PD, PGB, Tnos, TOL)

{Summary: Posts by Thanos, GLE, Bernek, Bugger, Fwybwed, TOL, and Liq}

I may switch my vote to Bugger if it gets too close to a tie between B77 and him.

AGM voted for the seer round 1, and the seer's cleared cit round 2. I think there's no way he's going to vote for PGB this round so I can't predict where his vote is going.

MW's suspect list has been about seven players long since the beginning of the game so it's unclear where he will go either.

I'll finalize my vote at 8PM eastern.

quote:

---

Currently Voting :
 
• Bugger

---

quote:

---

Suspicion List :
 
• High :

  59% : Bugger
  55% : PlasteredDragon
  54% : GottaLoveElves
   

• Mid :

  53% : Bernek77
  52% : XplicitR
  52% : BernieB
  51% : Masterwolf
  51% : AlmasterGM
   

• Low :

  50% : puregoblinboy47
  49% : fwybwed
  45% : ThoughtsofLepers

---

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

21-40%:
XplicitR (brought WAY too much attention to himself early on. I have doubts that a wolf would do that. From what I've seen in previous games, unless the wolf is known to be a heavy poster like PD or Bugger, they quiet down and try to hide.)

41-50%: (People who I have not developed any strong opinion about)
fwybwed
BernieB
ThoughtsofLepers
Liq

51%+
GottaLoveElves
Bugger
AlmasterGM
Bernek77

-------
Notes:
I'm surprized to see so many strong players still alive in the game. That leads me to believe that at least 1 of them is a wolf, and possibly 2. As strong players, I am refering to: Bugger, GLE, Liq, PD, and PGB.

Bernek: Last round, I "voted" Bernek, or would have if I had been on time. He's acted very over-the-top, defensive, angry, etc. I feel like he's either playing a scared wolf or a big baby. I want to believe that he's just interested in the cit's best interest, but being too trusting has got me messed up in the past. Suspicion level: medium.

GLE: As one of the more experienced players, I find it hard to believe he missed the seer tells. He advocated against Thanos from the get-go, and then tried the "if I were a wolf" defense. He's spent the majority of the game defending himself. He didn't declare R2, which is always a red flag in this game. He hasn't provided too much input or analysis so far, despite 24+ posts. Suspicion level: high.

Bugger: "Hrrrrr... This is unfortunate. Oh well, it's only R2..." I don't know why, but that line really makes me uneasy. But I don't think it's enough yet. I don't really feel like Liq or fwybwed's cases against Bugger hold much water. Suspicion level: medium

Also, the little game PD played with Bugger and GLE has me a little lost as well. If they're cits, why would we want to lynch two in a row? If they're wolves, they're gonna act as we would expect cits to act. I don't see the point, and I don't see how you expect it to prove anything.

Low Post Counts: I don't feel like Bernie, AGM, or ToL have contributed very much this game. I'd like more analysis, thoughts, and ideas from those players. ToL and AGM are usually not silent players, so I'm wondering if they are trying to keep a low profile. Last time AGM posted very little, he was a wolf and in hiding. Of course, it is very possible that he's been busy on a UN mission helping earthquake victims in China, but nonetheless his absence raises my suspicion of him. I will be posting more as well during the week, although weekend posting will be few and far between from me.

Currently my top 3 suspects are GLE, AGM, and Bernek. Will have a vote declared within the next 30 minutes.

--------------------------

Edit: Sorry, that took me like 2 hours to finish, as I had to squeeze it between working.

Responses @ PD/GLE: You're right, I too have been more silent than in the past. But you'll see that I post a decent amount during the week, but almost not at all during the weekends. That's just real life interfering. I hope to increase my posting as I can.

List:
1) GLE
2) Bernek
3) Bugger

{VOTING: GLE (expert player, posted a lot of fluff and defense - no real analysis)}

As far as "why" goes, I don't really have any new posts to quote on the issue at this time. However, I can say this: take a look at GLE's posting record (courtesy of PD).

GottaLoveElves Round 0: 6 Round 1: 4 Round 2: 1 Round 3: 11 Total 16 Average: 5.3

Quite a jump this round, and after being a werewolf with GLE last game, I am noticing a pattern between his posting habits that game and this game. Previously, GLE was very quiet until he felt he needed to post something lest he be called for silence. In this round, almost the exact same thing has occurred - he didn't say much rounds 1 or two, but then started talking up a storm round 3 when he got smacked on the radar. Now, one could argue that this proves nothing, as GLE the cit would still want to save himself from death. However, I don't know if this true. GLE is a busy person. As a citizen, there is less responsibility and weight being put on his shoulders, so it's easier to pass the game off. If GLE was a cit, I don't think he he would be quite as concerned with his life as he is right now. However, if GLE is a wolf - and one of only two remaining at that - he can't afford a slip-up. I think this may explain his massive posting increase at least partially - he NEEDS to live, and like others have mentioned, just delaying his death one round may be all he needs.

It is, of course, 100% possible that some other unknown variables are contributing to his posting habits and that I am totally wrong, but in light of other evidence, it's an interesting thought at the least. It looks like GLE is going to live this round, so we need to be careful not to lose track of him next time - especially because of his advocacy that the double Bugger-GLE lynch is a bad idea.