quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
Which means that we should be taking his silence as an indicator of potential guilt rather than one of innocence- if he's already playing a bluff game, who's to say he hasn't gone "all the way" and bluffed in his participation as well?

---

Let me propose an alternative explanation to yours which would paint my silence as a sign of innocence. Look at all the games where I've been a wolf in recent memory--you're talking WW4 & WW5. WW4 we lost in a clean sweep, and WW5 we won in a squeaker. In both of those games, I was making a point to talk heavily and try and spread as much dissonance as possible: in WW5 I made a point to get a counterwagon (later successful) to the epic ryan/PD explosion that opened the round, and I still say the fallout from the fact that they both survived was one of the key elements in our victory in that game. Nailing the seer early was huge, too, obviously, but I believe when playing as a wolf that it's imperative to try and get everyone headed in as unique a direction as possible.
Take also WW4; a miserable loss. The reason I was uncovered in that game was because I refused to bite the bullet and gun for my own player (randon), something I learned from for WW5--but still, I was proposing an alternative plan to everything that anyone had said.
Contrast that with this game: I was a heavy talker in both of those cases, and haven't said a word here worth a damn. Also, in this game, my votes and posts (natch my thoughts of Thanos or Bernie in R2) have been strictly towing the majority line. Those are two things I've never done as a wolf, but have been much more likely to pull off as a cit. (Although I've never missed voted and played fully silent in either role)
Now, of course, you have to take this defense with a grain of salt, for obvious reasons: I say all the time that as soon as someone says "I'm not a wolf because I wouldn't do this as a wolf", it's invalidated. Also, that reasoning of "I've never done this as a wolf at all" is actually a really good reason as to why I could be playing a silent game: it probably wouldn't be expected.
Honestly, I wouldn't want to do that as a wolf, because it would equate to much less fun for me, IMO, just as it does when I'm a cit. The fun I have in this game is crafting arguments, and if I'm not doing that, then I'm not enjoying the game. You have my sincerest sentiment that I wouldn't do that intentionally.
The reason I decided to elaborate with this, though; the arguments for my lynching have been made and artiulcated already, and aside from a solid "meh" towards my role from PD, nobody's really dared defend my silence to any great extent. Just giving some context to the other side for any swing voters with whom I might still have some credibility. Honestly, with all that said, I don't mean to argue my innocence due to the lack of posting, what I'm really getting at is that the only thing my silence should indicate is that I'm not posting. It's a huge change, and one I intend to fix for as long as I survive in this game. I was busy, I won't be as busy now, and I have full intent to try and get at least something out of this.

Now, my lunch break is over--and I still haven't posted any suspicions or accusations. I intend on coming home from work (3:30 EST, if anyone is that interested) and giving another read and getting a post up with my opinions ASAP after that. If you haven't written me off and care what I think, feel free to check the thread then to make your decision.

@GLE: It was a little more than a "meh". I assume you are referring to this post. As I noted there for you to suddenly go so silent would be very telling if you were a wolf, and therefore really bad play. I don't think you are capable of that level of incompetence--so I assume you had other innocent reasons. I look forward to your insights... that should tell me a lot more about you than your silence did.

quote:

---

Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
I feel that I owe it to the cits to at least explain myself.
Nobody needs specific excuses, it was Easter weekend, the end of term time has come and gone, and I've just had better things to do. Take that or leave it, but allow me to offer up some food for thought.

Let me propose an alternative explanation to yours which would paint my silence as a sign of innocence. Look at all the games where I've been a wolf in recent memory--you're talking WW4 & WW5. WW4 we lost in a clean sweep, and WW5 we won in a squeaker. In both of those games, I was making a point to talk heavily and try and spread as much dissonance as possible: in WW5 I made a point to get a counterwagon (later successful) to the epic ryan/PD explosion that opened the round, and I still say the fallout from the fact that they both survived was one of the key elements in our victory in that game. Nailing the seer early was huge, too, obviously, but I believe when playing as a wolf that it's imperative to try and get everyone headed in as unique a direction as possible.
Take also WW4; a miserable loss. The reason I was uncovered in that game was because I refused to bite the bullet and gun for my own player (randon), something I learned from for WW5--but still, I was proposing an alternative plan to everything that anyone had said.
Contrast that with this game: I was a heavy talker in both of those cases, and haven't said a word here worth a damn. Also, in this game, my votes and posts (natch my thoughts of Thanos or Bernie in R2) have been strictly towing the majority line. Those are two things I've never done as a wolf, but have been much more likely to pull off as a cit. (Although I've never missed voted and played fully silent in either role)
Now, of course, you have to take this defense with a grain of salt, for obvious reasons: I say all the time that as soon as someone says "I'm not a wolf because I wouldn't do this as a wolf", it's invalidated. Also, that reasoning of "I've never done this as a wolf at all" is actually a really good reason as to why I could be playing a silent game: it probably wouldn't be expected.
Honestly, I wouldn't want to do that as a wolf, because it would equate to much less fun for me, IMO, just as it does when I'm a cit. The fun I have in this game is crafting arguments, and if I'm not doing that, then I'm not enjoying the game. You have my sincerest sentiment that I wouldn't do that intentionally.
The reason I decided to elaborate with this, though; the arguments for my lynching have been made and artiulcated already, and aside from a solid "meh" towards my role from PD, nobody's really dared defend my silence to any great extent. Just giving some context to the other side for any swing voters with whom I might still have some credibility. Honestly, with all that said, I don't mean to argue my innocence due to the lack of posting, what I'm really getting at is that the only thing my silence should indicate is that I'm not posting. It's a huge change, and one I intend to fix for as long as I survive in this game. I was busy, I won't be as busy now, and I have full intent to try and get at least something out of this.

---

You realize, I hope, that posting suddenly after someone calls you out for silence is in itself suspicious right? And don't worry, I'm not nessecarily gunning for you-- that post you quote was designed to do the opposite. I wanted to see how the populace as a whole would respond to another push to lynch a big player, and while I still do suspect you it's not nearly on the level that I phrased it to be so.

Jaz on the other hand... well, we'll get to that.

If you want confirmation of this, just look at my last post from last night-- I flat stated I didn't have any conclusive leads I felt were productive enough to follow, and that still holds mostly true. I have an idea for this round, however (I'll go into it more later on in this post).

quote:

---

Now, my lunch break is over--and I still haven't posted any suspicions or accusations. I intend on coming home from work (3:30 EST, if anyone is that interested) and giving another read and getting a post up with my opinions ASAP after that. If you haven't written me off and care what I think, feel free to check the thread then to make your decision.

---

Believe me, GLE, I will.

But for now, on to other matters:

@ PD, re: Jaz's XPR argument:
I think she raises some damning points (thus my putting them in boldface) but overall I found it to be somewhat of a stretch, which made me a little suspicious, especially with that post coming as it did essentially starting a bandwagon on XPR. Here:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jazaray:
After going through Xpr's posts again, I'm agreeing with Bernie.

First, he keeps trying to get Liq to state a reason for his accusation of TOL, like there is ever a reason r1? I would attribute that to his being a n00b, however he was VERY clear to say that he's watched ww's 6-8 and that he's not really a noob. ( Apr-07 09:22 AM)

---

His apparent flip-flopping of experience I can see as something that might come across as suspicious, yes, but not enough to make or include in a case against him. There are some things, speaking as a relative newcomer myself, that can be learned from simply observing (who the good players are, how they usually comport themselves), and other things that can only be learned from actually playing. With the exception of most of my defensive posts in WW7, it was the newb in me talking. I would have made that confetti post as a cit, and I would have asked GLE to explain his gunning for PD as a cit as well-- so from my personal experience and perspective, I make nothing of this. Thus, I find it to be a weak point.

quote:

---

He spent much of the first couple rounds suspecting PD, calling PD an ass and also posts that he doesn't think Liq is a ww, just a "passionate cit" (Apr-06 06:59 PM, Apr-07 06:47 AM, Apr-07 09:22 AM, Apr-07 05:59 PM)

---

This is a strong point. Why does XPR go from calling Liq almost assuredly a cit, and Chuck a manipulative wolf (who was in cahoots with revenger, if memory serves), to...

quote:

---

However, when it comes down to "Liq vs PD", he all of a sudden, decides that Liq is more suspicious or "dangerous" than PD and will vote for him. (Apr-09 12:17 PM, Apr-10 10:46 AM)

---

...Vice versa? Liq may have been on to something when he mentioned the idea of a newb wolf jockeying between two larger players to try and split them apart.

quote:

---

To me, it seems that he was trying to get PD out in the beginning, but when he saw that Liq was on the block, switched over to Liq because he's the stronger player.

---

This I disagree with in terms of being conclusively wolfy behaviour, mostly because all new players have a tendency to wagon erratically. They go with the breeze, so to speak. Furthermore, there is no provable point which places the possibility of this simply being a change in suspicion levels by a cit over the possibility of it being a change in suspicion levels by a wolf. In other words, it's a two-way-street point and therefore is invalid.

quote:

---

He posted his "surprise" of rev being a cit, but he apparently wasn't surprised that Liq was.. His switch on PD is also confusing. Now he's agreeable and "PD is right" all over the place.

---

And this is empty as well. If you read his posts, you'll see that directly before the revenger lynch he made a mess of a post that ended essentially with "PD and revenger are wolves out to get me, aaaah!", so it shouldn't come as a surprise when he was shocked to find revenger innocent.
Also, as he states in a post you quote, he found Liq to be the more "dangerous" of the two in Liq v. PD- not the more suspicious.

In short, I don't like Jaz's argument a bit- it has one solid point surrounded and supported by highly conditional, misrepresentative, and improperly applied ones. What I can't decide is if this was intentional or not- but make no mistake, she rounds out the top of my suspect list right now.

As it stands, we're looking at an XPR lynch. I don't think he's a wolf, but I do think his death can help narrow down possibilities.
Crap, out of time again. I have to go, but I'll finally finish my thoughts this afternoon when I get back and declare my vote.

And I wasn't saying that wagoning is "conclusively wolfy behavior", but that coupled with everything else... And I did say more dangerous, which I guess I think of as suspicious too, but it's your prerogative on how you view it. And it wasn't meant to start a wagon on xpr, I was just stating why I was voting for him. (Ok, and I wanted to show off that I could use the tracker too :P )

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

@Bugsie: I have to admit, I don't find Jaz's argument as weak as you apparently do. And I think when you start to feel someone is a wolf and want to make your case, you don't hold back, you list everything about them that could be wolfy--from the minor to the damning--the strength of the argument typically comes from a constellation of points acting together rather than resting on a single point alone.

For my own suspicions of XPR, there's still the matter of the coaching--or what appeared to be coaching. I have a hard time getting past a guy who seemingly doesn't know that R1 accusations are typically baseless and keeps asking and asking someone to explain their R1 accusation, who doesn't know there is no angel activity on R0, but at the same time he can make a fairly nuanced statement about my personal tactics over time. How does such fine-grained tactical knowledge come without knowledge of the basics?

AFA suspecting Jaz goes, well I suppose she could be a wolf, but I as yet don't see anything there that worries me. You were going to post further analysis so I will await that. I don't think it's a good plan to indict someone simply because they make a good wolf. There are still a number of players in this game who've demonstrated themselves to be competent when wolves. I assume you have something else that has you casting your eye in Jaz's direction. I look forward to reviewing it.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Day 12 Post 3:

@GLE: It was a little more than a "meh". I assume you are referring to this post. As I noted there for you to suddenly go so silent would be very telling if you were a wolf, and therefore really bad play.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
You realize, I hope, that posting suddenly after someone calls you out for silence is in itself suspicious right?

---

Working on another post now, but if a round and a half is what you'd call "sudden", then I'm a little confused. I quoted your specific blurb of text because it epitomized what was being said against me fairly well.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Day 12 Post 4:

@Bugsie: I have to admit, I don't find Jaz's argument as weak as you apparently do. And I think when you start to feel someone is a wolf and want to make your case, you don't hold back, you list everything about them that could be wolfy--from the minor to the damning--the strength of the argument typically comes from a constellation of points acting together rather than resting on a single point alone.

---

Well, that's my problem-- after striking out twice on finding a wolf (fwy last game, Liq this game), I'm much more cautious in building arguments and making accusations. I really don't want to be wrong, because then an entire round is essentially wasted through my erroneous detective work.
Today has been a bad day anyway for clear, straightforward thinking for me anyway :/, so that could be a contributor.

quote:

---

For my own suspicions of XPR, there's still the matter of the coaching--or what appeared to be coaching. I have a hard time getting past a guy who seemingly doesn't know that R1 accusations are typically baseless and keeps asking and asking someone to explain their R1 accusation, who doesn't know there is no angel activity on R0, but at the same time he can make a fairly nuanced statement about my personal tactics over time. How does such fine-grained tactical knowledge come without knowledge of the basics?

---

I see what you mean, and I think I've figured out where my weakness is: I can try and find out where the wolves are heading, how they're getting there, and what their kills mean, but I'm not as good at straight-out looking for wolves. That's my problem, and it's probably just due to inexperience . So the reason I'm not raising the flag to take down XPR is because he's tertiary in my game: Yeah, he might be a wolf, but he's clearly not the one calling the shots. That's what I've been trying to do, and maybe it's time I take a step back and reconsider.

quote:

---

AFA suspecting Jaz goes, well I suppose she could be a wolf, but I as yet don't see anything there that worries me. You were going to post further analysis so I will await that. I don't think it's a good plan to indict someone simply because they make a good wolf. There are still a number of players in this game who've demonstrated themselves to be competent when wolves. I assume you have something else that has you casting your eye in Jaz's direction. I look forward to reviewing it.

---

I've been thinking things over and I'm worried I'm making the same mistake WRT Jaz that I did to fwy in WW8: The only thing that fits is the psychograph, and given the track record that's just not enough.

So now I can finally finish what I was going to say twice earlier today, and it pertains to the lynch: I'm fine with an XPR lynch. He seems to be as good a target as any, he's made suspicious posts, and I have a moderate suspicion level of him. But I think what will be most important is his identity. If XPR is a wolf, I think we can rule out Jaz as a suspect, and instead start looking towards who would be a mentor (I'm strongly inclined to believe it's either PD or PGB). If XPR is a cit, well, it reinforces and increases the probability that all three wolves are seasoned players and narrows the field accordingly (assuming their kills pattern is maintained).

Thus: Voting XPR.

I'll try to be a little more coherent and on-the-ball tomorrow; I had a bad night's sleep and today has just been outright ****ty so I'm not at the top of my game. Better luck tomorrow I guess.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Day 12 Post 4:

@Bugsie: I have to admit, I don't find Jaz's argument as weak as you apparently do. And I think when you start to feel someone is a wolf and want to make your case, you don't hold back, you list everything about them that could be wolfy--from the minor to the damning--the strength of the argument typically comes from a constellation of points acting together rather than resting on a single point alone.

For my own suspicions of XPR, there's still the matter of the coaching--or what appeared to be coaching. I have a hard time getting past a guy who seemingly doesn't know that R1 accusations are typically baseless and keeps asking and asking someone to explain their R1 accusation, who doesn't know there is no angel activity on R0, but at the same time he can make a fairly nuanced statement about my personal tactics over time. How does such fine-grained tactical knowledge come without knowledge of the basics?

AFA suspecting Jaz goes, well I suppose she could be a wolf, but I as yet don't see anything there that worries me. You were going to post further analysis so I will await that. I don't think it's a good plan to indict someone simply because they make a good wolf. There are still a number of players in this game who've demonstrated themselves to be competent when wolves. I assume you have something else that has you casting your eye in Jaz's direction. I look forward to reviewing it.

---

You go from saying you know I'm not a wolf to now being suspicious of me? Yet that is one of the reasons people are suspecting me now, because I change my opinions of people?

Wolf Predictions:
1) PD
2) BernieB
3) Jazaray

quote:

---

Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
I have to ask, why do you get to use this logic and I don't?

---

What OOC trait of mine are you dismissing as innocent because I'm such a "good player"?

Instead you are trying to condemn me for doing things similarly to WW7 while ignoring the fact that they are similar to WW3-WW6. " I believe he damn well knew revenger was a cit and defended him in order to have some leverage in clearing his own name for the next round after a near inevitable lynching." For the love of Pete, PGB, I defend people in every darn game I play, wolf or not. THIS is why I say you can't seem to get over WW7.

Look dude, I went to bat for your silly argument last round and voted for myself and stuck with it. You had the whole round to build a convincing case and you managed to pick up one additional vote on me. I'm freakin' gobsmacked that you are going to pursue this again. The last thing we need is another "clash of the titans" right now. Did it ever occur to you that maybe the wolves have killed off the quieter players because they expect the bigger egos in the game to eventually destroy themselves?

I never said that you shouldn't use people's previous behaviors as an example by which to judge their current behavior. That doesn't mean getting tunnel vision on their one stint as a wolf and ignoring everything else.

Your argument stinks--you had all of R3 to make the case and the only person who bought in was fwy--move on already unless you have something new to bring.

Your only other indictment is that I don't want to get into a big fight with you--I explained that already too--as a wolf in WW7 I *had* to fight to stay alive for as long as possible--my wolf team felt we were at a big disadvantage. It really wore me out and I resolved after that game that I never wanted to go through that again. Previous experiences with big fights have demonstrated to me that it rarely pays off, and I just don't want to go there any more.

If you find that suspicious? I don't care. I think your argument against me is baseless, I've explained what you seem to see as inconsistencies (which is a laugh after I started this game saying I was going to play differently--and HAVE) and you won't let go of the point. You've convinced yourself and nothing I say will change your mind. I just don't see the point in trying to convince you--I refuse to waste this round by turning it into a PGB/PD showdown. You're making a mistake and that's that.

quote:

---

Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
This is why I think you are a wolf, PD. It's not about me "getting over" WW7. I think I have a read on you and you are being extremely dishonest. I'll be back to make a fairly substancial "pick people apart" post in a little bit.

---

Anyone who feels there is any validity to PGB's argument I fully encourage you to vote for me--100%--with blessings, hugs and kisses. In the meantime I'm trying to find a wolf in what is turning out to be a very difficult game. I will not be voting for myself again.

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Also I beleive that an apology is in order when you guys find out I am a citizen for claiming that I am being coached by some "better" player.

---

Liq (citizen) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
Jazaray (?) - fwybwed (citizen)
Montague (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
GottaLoveElves (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
Bugger (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
BernieB (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
Thanos (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
PlasteredDragon (?) - Thanos (?)
XPlicitR (?) - revenger (citizen)
Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen) - revenger (citizen)
revenger (citizen) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
Our_Benefactors (citizen) - revenger (citizen)

And, undeclared, in no particular order:
puregoblinboy (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
AlMasterGM (?) - revenger (citizen)
fwybwed (citizen) - BernieB (?)

Specifically, I want to examine the ToL pile. First and foremost, I do not think that a smart wolf would vote for the player receiving the most votes without declaring; that is a quick way to get suspected in later rounds. pgb is smart, so I think his nondeclaratory vote for ToL shows innocence.
Now, next up, my first sticking point: I believe the wolf makeup is 2-1, with two in the ToL pile and one in the others. I keep chirping at PD and saying that a group of wolves that grouped together R1 would shag a strict pile analysis, and I still believe this to be true; but, with the formation of the revenger wagon, I think that if one of the wolves had not already decided where to stack themselves, that the rev pile was their viable second option, knowing now that rev was a citizen. So, that leaves me to decide that I think AGM or XPR is a wolf. I said in an earlier post that one of my personal strategies as a canine is to throw the attention in as many directions as possible, so if XPR subscribes to this same school, it would be him.
I don't believe that, though, which leaves me with a suspicion of AGM. His posts seem a little too conveniently timed, and really contrived when I read them. This is obviously only a moderate suspicion, but let's check his voting record: R1 revenger, R2 revenger, R3 Liq. So, we know he's been wrong every time (he's not alone, but it's something to note). As a result of this, my first (and one of my mains) suspects is AGM.
Examining XPR's voting record shows something a little striking: it goes R1 revenger, R2 revenger, R3 Liq. I find this very interesting, and I'm tempted to believe it's a case of a wolf duplicating the moves of a citizen. Of the two, I'll again credit AGM with the player I think more likely to pull something like that.

Alternatively, if I'm right on the 2-1 model, and I'm incorrect on AGM, I think Jaz is a more likely wolf than XPR.
Of the randoms, I don't believe that PD is, because I can honestly say that I've never seen a wolf declare and swap R1. It's an unnecessary attention grabber; and one of the biggest inherent attention grabbers that this game has would probably look for ways not to do so as a wolf. Similar to the argument that PD is making for why he believes I'm not a wolf, I'm giving him the credit to realize the lack of necessity of such a gambit, and I believe him a citizen for it.
Jaz, on the other hand, played her usual first round, although she threw around ideas of swapping votes to revenger, something that I haven't seen her do before since she's been running with the daughter pick. I obviously can't derive too much from the placement of her vote, considering that we knew it would be an Amala pick, but her dicussion after that R1 bothered me a little. My second suspect, then, is Jazaray, but this suspicion is quite lower than that of AGM.

Now, on to what the cits and wolves alike have mostly avoided tackling: the ToL pile. Frankly, I think that anything other than exactly two wolves in here is unlikely. If I were to pick how I think such a pile would form, I think that momentum voters are most likely to be wolves. That is, the first may or may not be (wasn't here, it was Liq), the second I'd give about the same likelihood (Monty, we dunno), but once you get to three or four, you're getting damned likely. For the sake of this post, I'll neglect the third one on, because it's me.

But how about the fourth? Well, that's Bugger, a player who most seem to have written off as a very likely citizen. My first suspicion of him arises from the fact that he's dogging me so much: many players have been confused by my silence, but, knowing my role, I find the people most likely to push for an easy target prime for the picking right now (read: me) to be suspicious. This doesn't work unless you know my role, so this doesn't really push as an argument for any of you unless I die this round.
However, checking Bugger's voting, he's been R1 ToL, R2 XPR & R3 Liq. In two of those cases as well as this round, he's been one of the most vocal players against the easiest target. I don't credit Bugger with necessarily that much sway, but I think with three not-all-that-close votes thus far, someone is voiceboxing for the wolves and herding players towards some easily suspicious citizens. Looking at accusations and voting records, Bugger fits this bill the best, and his position on the ToL wagon is pretty precarious. As a result, my third major suspicion is Bugger.

Again checking the order in the ToL pile, I'll go as far as to say that I think both wolves in it (again, assuming my 2-1 model) would pile into slots 3-6. I'll again toss myself out, and that leaves Bernie & Thanos, two players I've previously mentioned.
As far as their posting goes, both of them are playing their exact usual game. Bernie strikes me as perhaps a shade quieter than usual, but he's not noticably upshut or anything. Checking voting records:
Thanos: ToL, revenger, Liq
Bernie: ToL, XPR, XPR.
Of these two, here's how I read it: historically, as a cit, Bernie tends to pick a suspicion and votes that way until either that player is dead, or it means his ass if he doesn't vote that way. This is the same player who, a couple games ago, after a seer said right before death "I'm sure these two players are innocent", tried to claim that one of the clears could be a wolf. As a result, I sincerely think that Bernie's adherence to his usual voting pattern as a citizen is pretty indicative of his innocence. Thanos, on the other hand, has been the silent version of the wolf's mouthpiece: always on the clearcut biggest wagon. Him and Bugger would make a nice pair, and their similar ideas as expressed in the voting would align with what PD's said about a general wolf tendency to block vote somewhat.
As a result, although I'd like to know Bugger's role to say this with much surity in myself, Thanos is my fourth suspicion.

Finally, I have a lot of respect for Montague as a player. We played together as wolves one game, and he was pretty bright and had a great idea for what's going on. I find it a little interesting how he's got to be on the quieter side when he can this game; he did exactly that when we were together in WW5. Contrast that with his late-game survival as a cit, and he seems to post more in the clutch. You can check past games to refute or validate or refute this; I haven't looked it up for the express purpose of this post, but am going off of notes I have on him. Furthermore, knowing now that ToL was a cit, Monty may have looked early and recognized that ToL's posting had "impending bandwagon" written all over it, and snuck in there early.
So, with that said, if (and only if, really) I'm off track on Bugger, I think Montague looks really suspicious in that case, and as such, he's my fifth suspicion.

Taking my major thoughts and summarizing them:
- I think the wolves are spread out 2-1 from R1
- I think the one wolf is most likely AGM, and quite possibly Jazaray. I think XPR is a less likely, and I think PD is pretty clean.
- I think that Bugger is very likely a wolf.
- If I'm correct in this, I think Thanos is his most likely cohort in that pile.
- If not, out of a judgment call, I think that Montague is the most suspicious left on that pile.

And such is the conclusion of my thoughts based off of voting records. The unfortunate part in all of this is that none of my main suspicions (or, in fact, people even on my radar) appear to be in the list of viable counterwagons to me. So, I'll likely be casting my vote for the highest apparent non-me vote-getter (from my read, if I casted at this moment, it'd be XPR). This serves two functions:
1) From my perspective, voting for someone I'm suspicious of and letting myself die is a 0-return play, even if I'm right in my suspicion. So. as a citizen, I still benefit most from voting from the highest counterwagon, and
2) Now that this post is up, in the case of my death, at least I've left something to learn from. So, now, instead of losing a quiet player who never had any opinions on anyone and you guys learning nothing from it, you've at least got some judgments to roll with. Granted, my opinions don't have roots like they would have if I'd been posting all along, but it's certainly better than nothing.

@PGB: Just looked over my previous post to you. That was pretty mean. Nder's right, I can go overboard with my critiques. I apologize PGB. I disagree with you but if you are a cit, you have every right to suspect me, and if you are a wolf, you're doing whatever you need to in order to win. Either way, I apologize. No hard feelings. Do what you gotta.

@GLE: This is really interesting. LMK if you need to know the order of the votes from the other rounds. I'm going to cogitate on your post for awhile, but for now I'm keeping my vote on XPR.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
@GLE: This is really interesting. LMK if you need to know the order of the votes from the other rounds. I'm going to cogitate on your post for awhile, but for now I'm keeping my vote on XPR.

---

Posting them anyways wouldn't hurt. I won't get much out of it before this kill gets in, but it would be nice to have before next round.
Honestly though, although I've dumped on you for it all the time, I have to concede that the first round is the most important in terms of how people arrange themselves (chronologically, as well as who they vote for).

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 9!][My Brute!]

quote:

---

Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
Posting them anyways wouldn't hurt. I won't get much out of it before this kill gets in, but it would be nice to have before next round.
Honestly though, although I've dumped on you for it all the time, I have to concede that the first round is the most important in terms of how people arrange themselves (chronologically, as well as who they vote for).

---

Ya... so many people get eliminated from those R1 piles, and the wolves only get to pick half of them. However the REALLY huge TOL pile has been making it hard--but there is always some interaction between the R1 piles and piles from later rounds to look at too.

quote:

---

Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
I want to go back and look at the round 1 piles. I'm well aware that I'm always downing on PD for pile analysis, but I want to moreso look at the order sheet I asked for rounds ago. Here, in order, are the declarations:

Liq (citizen) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
Jazaray (?) - fwybwed (citizen)
Montague (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
GottaLoveElves (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
Bugger (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
BernieB (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
Thanos (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
PlasteredDragon (?) - Thanos (?)
XPlicitR (citizen) - revenger (citizen)
Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen) - revenger (citizen)
revenger (citizen) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
Our_Benefactors (citizen) - revenger (citizen)

And, undeclared, in no particular order:
puregoblinboy (?) - Thoughts_of_Lepers (citizen)
AlMasterGM (?) - revenger (citizen)
fwybwed (citizen) - BernieB (?)

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
GLE explain to me how you know I am a citizen? I haven't been lynched yet so I'm confused how you are going on about me and AGM while having me up there as a cit?

---

Here are the voting orders from all three rounds so far:

code:

---

Voting History - ROUND 1
==============================
 
============================================================
20090403 07:33  MW   001 EATEN     (C)
20090403 08:09  LIQ  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - not stated
20090403 09:52  LIQ  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - XPR not as suspicious
20090403 11:21  JAZ  001 VOTES     fwybwed - Amala's pick
20090404 04:39  PD   002 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - OOC silence
20090404 09:49  BUG  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - not stated
20090404 13:14  MON  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - post #059
20090404 17:54  GLE  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - could be wolves cutting ties with a loose cannon
20090405 11:03  BB   001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - post #063 "here I am, a cit again"
20090405 14:23  THA  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - not stated
20090405 15:35  PD   001 VOTES     Thanos - silent play
20090405 15:45  XPR  001 VOTES     revenger - not stated
20090405 16:57  TOL  001 VOTES     revenger - not stated
20090405 17:40  REV  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - post #116 - "screaming do not lynch me"
20090405 17:43  O_B  001 VOTES     revenger - to avoid wasting vote
20090405 18:10  AGM  001 UNDECVOTE revenger
20090405 18:10  FWY  001 UNDECVOTE BernieB
20090405 18:10  PGB  001 UNDECVOTE ThoughtsofLepers
20090405 18:10  TOL  001 LYNCHED   (S)
20090405 19:16  XRK  999 NO VOTE   
============================================================

---

code:

---

Voting History - ROUND 2
==============================
 
============================================================
20090405 18:53  XRK  001 EATEN     (C)
20090405 20:34  PD   001 VOTES     Liq - spared by WW, inaccurate posts, no seer anymore
20090405 20:57  JAZ  001 VOTES     fwybwed - Amala's pick
20090406 01:31  FWY  001 VOTES     BernieB - randonish posts
20090406 13:26  LIQ  001 VOTES     Bugger - playing strong players against each other
20090406 16:30  BB   002 VOTES     XplicitR - most suspicious player in rev pile
20090406 23:15  PGB  001 VOTES     PlasteredDragon - playing guilt trip OOC
20090407 06:47  XPR  001 VOTES     revenger - instinct
20090407 13:16  THA  001 VOTES     revenger - not stated
20090407 14:07  O_B  001 VOTES     revenger - not stated
20090407 14:17  BUG  001 VOTES     XplicitR - PD's strategy viable
20090407 16:29  FWY  001 VOTES     PlasteredDragon - switched vote
20090407 16:47  BB   001 VOTES     XplicitR - not stated
20090407 17:21  PD   001 VOTES     XplicitR - appears coached, coordination with Liq, contrived posts
20090407 18:02  JAZ  002 VOTES     revenger - emotional, defensive, silent
20090407 18:48  AGM  001 UNDECVOTE revenger
20090407 18:48  MON  001 UNDECVOTE Liq
20090407 18:48  PGB  001 FORGOT    PlasteredDragon - playing guilt trip OOC
20090407 18:48  REV  001 UNDECVOTE XplicitR
20090407 18:48  REV  002 LYNCHED   (C)
20090408 05:19  GLE  999 NO VOTE   
============================================================

---

code:

---

Voting History - ROUND 3
==============================
 
============================================================
20090408 20:21  O_B  001 EATEN     (A)
20090408 23:04  LIQ  001 VOTES     AlmasterGM - 2 undec votes for villagers
20090408 23:11  PD   001 VOTES     PlasteredDragon - tired
20090409 09:03  BUG  001 VOTES     Liq - play consistent with wolves
20090409 09:18  MON  001 VOTES     Liq - reasons stated earlier
20090409 09:55  LIQ  001 VOTES     Bugger - agreeable wolf
20090409 23:25  PGB  001 VOTES     PlasteredDragon - previously stated reasons
20090410 00:44  FWY  001 VOTES     PlasteredDragon - previously stated reasons
20090410 06:27  PD   001 VOTES     PlasteredDragon - to have arguments reconsidered
20090410 10:44  AGM  001 VOTES     Liq - same reasons as PD
20090410 10:46  XPR  001 VOTES     Liq - PD
20090410 11:46  JAZ  001 VOTES     Liq - innacuracies and oversights appear intentional
20090410 13:25  THA  001 VOTES     Liq - not stated
20090410 18:18  BB   001 VOTES     XplicitR - R2 behavior has not convinced Bernie
20090411 13:14  GLE  001 UNDECVOTE Liq
20090411 13:14  LIQ  001 LYNCHED   (C)
============================================================

---

First of all, I address this to PD:

I have been extremely aggressive towards you for only a little bit more than a round. You are darn right I was trying to bait you into a squabble, because I felt that was my best opportunity to build up momentum against you. I suspect you, and I am very confident with my ability to defend my position against you. You did not bite, so I made the first two posts of this round to remind that I still suspect you, with a brief reason why. And I disagree with you on a certain count.

quote:

---

What are you talking about? All I'm doing is noting that GLE being OOC silent would be a bad play if he were a wolf and because he is such a good player, I therefore think his silence is more likely to be innocent.
What OOC trait of mine are you dismissing as innocent because I'm such a "good player"?

---

In my mind this is absolutely the same logic, granted we come to opposite conclusions. You used an extremely OOC trait that I just don't think you would have as a cit. It's what made me initially suspect you and look into the rest of your posts to find similarities to the other game you a werewolf and this one. I'm referring to this comment by you right here:

quote:

---

AFA lynching me goes? Well folks have a habit of getting distracted by me, and it almost always leads to lynching parties once the seer is gone. After my successful bid in WW7 to stay alive, I wouldn't at all doubt that people don't feel they can trust me now. All I can tell you is, you'd be making a mistake.
Lynching me is a wasted lynch. There's no way I can prove it with the seer gone, if it has to happen to keep the cits focused, fine. But it's a waste--you will learn nothing, and lose a halfway decent player in the process. Then you'll be down to three lynches left AND there may be repercussions next round. I'd rather see us nail a wolf this round if possible.

---

This next part is a constructive criticism of your game in general as well as a counterargument to one of your main counterpoints against me. I think you are a humble enough guy(meant as a complement, by the way) that you may appreciate it. You have accused me at multiple points this game as not addressing your whole post or whole argument. Maybe there has been times where I've missed something, but let's face it. You compose huge posts that are mostly filler. I'm not interested in breaking down the filler. I want to find the meat of your arguments. I want to find out why I feel the way I do about you, so I will respond only to those points. I see no reason to respond to the points that make me feel indifferent towards you. I don't think it's needed to have a million quote tages followed by "Fair enough" plus a two sentence rebuttal. For example:

quote:

---

TOL is revealed as a cit and Liq suddenly changes his tune--now having "low" suspicion of me. Meanwhile no less than 3 players suddenly latch on to WW7 and me (Buger, PGB, and XPR). Sounds like an agreed upon play in progress. PGB having apparently taken the baton from Liq begins pursuing me as quickly as Liq as forgotten me. Meanwhile Liq suspects PGB now for "not declaring"--which is a real bad argument given the push toward nondeclaration of late. This suspicion also feels contrived to create division between Liq and PGB.

I would not at all be surprised if Liq/PGB/XPR are the wolves. That would be 2 in the TOL pile and 1 in the REV pile, and would explain why they made their kill in the random pile. No I'm not certain--you guys know, I'm NEVER certain... I'm too "cautious".

---

"Fair enough."

You get what I am trying to say? I'm not super articulate, so unfortunately, this may have come across as ambiguous.

--------------

As for the rest of the game, it seems clear that getting momentum started against PD will not work, so like I mentioned in the first paragraph of my post, I want everyone's opinion.

What is the likelyhood that all three of myself, GLE, and PD are cits? You all know where I stand. I don't think it's very likely at all.

Outside of PD, there hasn't been much mention of my name in a negative light. Typically, I start to get suspected around now. In fact, it's surprising that I'm not. What do you all think I am? I expect an answer from everyone. I'm going to double post that to ensure that people didn't skim over my post and missed this.

To the populace at large: I'm sorry I was so rudderless and unable to really contribute today. I think I need to take a big step back, wipe the board clean, and start again from the foundations, so hopefully I'll have something to make up for today's cluster**** sometime tomorrow. I'm going to reread the thread, begin looking hard at everyone, and throw the current wolf profile model out the window and start from scratch. For now though my vote is sticking with XPR as I still feel something can be learned from him regardless of role.