quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
I love the friendly atmosphere ...whats taking MM so long?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
I texted MM this morning to check if he was okay, and work is just really crazy for him. He'll be posting results today after work.

---

PGB ~ PD (1)
fwybwed ~ PD (2)
Jazaray ~ Liq (1)
PlasteredDragon ~ PD (3)
BernieB ~ XplicitR (1)
Thanos ~ Liq (2)
Bugger ~ Liq (3)
Liq ~ Bugger (1)
AlmasterGM ~ Liq (4)
XplicitR ~Liq (5)
GLE ~ Liq (6)
Montague ~ Liq (7)

No angel, no seer and now no Liq. Another villager is wrongfully lynched.

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 3!]

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
I don't think you are allowed to talk after you are dead. I'm quite surprised that you were a citizen though.

---

We've always been unofficially allowed one post-death post. As long as it bears nothing towards the current game. The GM may request a Mod to delete or modify any post is in violation.

quote:

---

Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
No angel, no seer and now no Liq. Another villager is wrongfully lynched.

---

Pogglesworth!!! Pogglesworth!!!

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

Villagers, your votes are due Tuesday Night(extra day for the holiday.)

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 9!][My Brute!]

I sat in my favourite reading chair pondering the events as of late. The evil which fills my beloved village is still present. I cannot say for sure, but we are at a loss on who to suspect. I have all but made my choices but no voice to share.

Something evil comes my way, I feel it. The hair on the back of my neck stand as stiff as a corpse.

Ahhh I have not forseen my death, but ....

(Blood)

*sigh* Shows how much I know. Liq was a cit after all.

The wolves choice of fwy is interesting. In so doing they've ssen to it that the R1 TOL pile stays as large as possible--no surprises there. R1-Random and R1-Rev are down to 2 players each.

With fwy dead, the R3 piles are:

R3-LIQ: AGM, BUG, GLE, JAZ, MON, THA, XPR
R3-PD: PD, PGB
R3-Random: BB (XPR)

I can say with certainty that at least one of the R3-Liq voters *must* be a wolf. Since there are only 3 players that didn't vote Liq, and I know I am a cit, there's at least one wolf in that pile.

And if there is ONLY 1 wolf in that pile, PGB and BB have to be wolves. If there are 2 wolves in that pile, then either BB or PGB is a wolf but not both. The only way that PD, PGB, and BB are ALL innocent is if ALL the wolves block voted for Liq in R3. This is possible, that pile is huge.

But assuming for a moment they didn't ALL vote together, then from my perspective, the most sensible course of action is to lynch PGB and BernieB. Chances are at least 1 of them is a wolf.

This of course hinges on the notion that I am a cit. I know this to be true, and the fact that I was willing to self vote last round long before the Liq pile formed ought to count for something AFAIC. But that's not up to me, it's up to you guys.

At this point the wolves are thinking about what suspicious players to leave in the game so that the cits will have obvious lynch targets R4 and R5--as noted earlier, they're herding us. If PGB is innocent those targets are likely PD and PGB. If PGB is a wolf, then those targets are PD ... and I'm not sure who the other target would be.

So for me the question is, is PGB a wolf? He knows what sort of player I am... I take things way too seriously and I am prone to getting into huge drawn-out arguments. If PGB was a wolf, going out of his way to get into a scuffle with me would draw a lot of unwanted attention to him--this doesn't strike me as very good play. Now that I think about it, if PGB was a wolf he'd probably be agreeing with me a lot, so as to have me suspect him less. So, if PGB is therefore NOT a wolf, then BernieB must be a wolf, unless all three wolves voted in the LIQ pile.

Thoughts?

code:

---

Post Count Report
 
From: 001:  1-Apr 17:10 MeddlingMage - rules posted
  To: 232: 11-Apr 23:21 PlasteredDragon - On R3 piles - 1 wolf must be i...
 
Living Players:
                     R0   R1   R2   R3   R4  TOT
AlmasterGM            1    3    1    1    0    6
BernieB               2    4    2    1    0    9
Bugger                1   17   11    6    0   35
GottaLoveElves        2    2    3    0    0    7
Jazaray               1    4    3    2    0   10
Montague              1    7    1    2    0   11
PlasteredDragon       5   11   11   11    1   39
puregoblinboy47       1    2    3    6    0   12
Thanos                1    3    1    1    0    6
XplicitR              1    6    6    4    0   17
 
Dead Players:
                     R0   R1   R2   R3   R4  TOT
fwybwed               2    2    4    3    1   12
Liq                   1    9    1    4    0   15
MasterWolf            2    0    0    0    0    2
Our_Benefactors       1    4    1    1    0    7
revenger              2    3    6    0    0   11
ThoughtsofLepers      1   12    0    0    0   13
XRKon                 1    1    0    0    0    2

---

That said: GottaLoveElves this has been the quietest game you've had on record. You didn't manage to post at all last round--you were the only undeclared voter and you got into the largest pile. I think it's time for you to speak up. A player with your experience and skill should have some fresh insights for us all.

I'd also like to get some insight from AGM, BernieB, and Thanos -- as each of these players had only one post last round.

quote:

---

Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
Player ~ Their vote

PGB ~ PD (1)
fwybwed ~ PD (2)
Jazaray ~ Liq (1)
PlasteredDragon ~ PD (3)
BernieB ~ XplicitR (1)
Thanos ~ Liq (2)
Bugger ~ Liq (3)
Liq ~ Bugger (1)
AlmasterGM ~ Liq (4)
XplicitR ~Liq (5)
GLE ~ Liq (6)
Montague ~ Liq (7)

No angel, no seer and now no Liq. Another villager is wrongfully lynched.

~MM

---

Nuts. Wrong again.

The Fwy kill is interesting though... I'll have to consult the graph I have of everyone's votes throughout the game, but I can't shake the feeling there's something immediately useful to be found. I'll post back with my findings in an hour or so at the latest.

PD based on your logic though, wouldn't it be better to vote for the pile with only 1 person instead of PGB? Also I don't think the wolves would ever block vote this early, however I don't have as many games under my belt as you guys do.

1. As of now, there is only 1 person who has never voted in the lynch pile: PD, who has voted Thanos, XPR, and himself. This raises the possibility of a wolf double-bluff, such as Jaz did in WW6 (IIRC, that was the one). The only validity such a theory holds is that the only other player who could say the same (fwybwed) was killed last night.

2. The real question is, assuming the wolves voted mostly in the R1 ToL pile (which as mentioned before is borne out through the kill pattern and the pile size), did they do the same for the Liq pile? If they did, things are considerably more difficult for the cits, but if not, we know where two of the wolves are: among PGB, BB, and PD (the only people who didn't vote liq). I feel strongly that this is the question that will make or break this game, so it will likely take up most of my subsequent analysis posts. We have to decide: would the wolves dangle it right under our noses like that (assuming it's PD, PGB, BB), or would they go for the sweep (making it more difficult)? I think we need to figure that out.

3. The piles currently stand as:
ROUND 1:
ToL (6):
Bugger, BernieB, GLE, Montague, PGB47, Thanos
rev (2):
AGM, Xpr
random (2):
PD, Jaz
ROUND 2:
rev (4):
Thanos, Xpr, Jaz, AGM
Xpr (3):
Bugger, BernieB, PD
Random (3):
GLE, PGB, Montague
ROUND 3:
Liq (7):
AGM, Bugger, GLE, Jaz, Montague, Thanos, XPR
PD (2):
PD, PGB
random (1):
BernieB

Okay, that's it for now. Night everyone.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
...1. As of now, there is only 1 person who has never voted in the lynch pile: PD, who has voted Thanos, XPR, and himself. This raises the possibility of a wolf double-bluff, such as Jaz did in WW6 (IIRC, that was the one). The only validity such a theory holds is that the only other player who could say the same (fwybwed) was killed last night...

---

Not sure what you mean about WW6. That's the only game I remember where Jaz was a wolf, and she voted in lynch piles for 5 of the seven rounds in WW6.

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
PD based on your logic though, wouldn't it be better to vote for the pile with only 1 person instead of PGB?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Also I don't think the wolves would ever block vote this early, however I don't have as many games under my belt as you guys do.

---

It's typical wolf play to split up as GLE pointed out:

145. Apr-06 05:55 PM: Doesn't blame the cits for killing the seer. Discusses the piles. Suspects Bernie and Thanos as late TOL wagoneers. - (ref: BernB, Bug, Liq, Monty, PD, rev, Tnos, TOL)

And I think that was a fact GLE used to his advantage in WW5. While it's true that splitting up is typical wolf play, being atypical can leave the cits ever looking in the wrong direction. So maybe the wolves *did* block vote, and block vote early, just to mess us up. Maybe not all three together, maybe just a pair.

There's another thing I just can't avoid thinking--as I noted earlier, the wolves appear to be herding us. And there's no way they can't see that we are looking at the piles. All their kills say the same thing though: we're hiding in the R1-TOL pile. One wolf in that pile is probably snug and safe at this point if he keeps his head down. Two wolves? Risky but not too bad. Three? Even riskier! By killing people from R1-random and R1-REV, the wolves seem to be sending a very clear signal about their location. Now why on earth would they do that? Seems like the wolves would be more likely to kill at least one or two TOL-pile players at this point to keep us guessing as to whether or not they are really in that pile.

So what if they are not in that pile at all? What if they are in fact in the piles they've been killing off all along? It's not as crazy as it sounds. Jaz did that in WW6, left herself alone in a pile, and also killed off TWO cits in a 5-man pile which contained a wolf (WW6 R1-FWY pile). That was a game she came very close to winning. (And, btw, two wolves block voted in WW6-R2.)

Since there are only 4 non-TOL voters left, and since I know I am a cit, if ALL the non-TOL voters are wolves it would be AGM/Jaz/XPR.

But it's all just supposition. If those players were wolves it would mean 2 of them block voted R1, and all three block voted R2 and R3. That would be very atypical behavior for wolves. But if just two of those players are wolves, and that pair block-voted in the early rounds, that would not be without precedent as previously noted. It's a possibility we should be aware of.

quote:

---

Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
While PD is still extremely high ranking on my suspect list, it's really hard to not vote for GLE this round. Multiple requests to get him to post, and a flat out blank everywhere.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by BernieB:
I still think that either XpR or AGM is shaggy, I will continue to push for Xpr. I am that stubborn.

---

1. The staggering size of the Liq pile has a potential silver lining after all. If it's true that the ToL pile was so large specifically because there were 2 or more wolves in it, it would follow that the same is true for the Liq pile- which means we need to look at people who went A_alpha (or, in case I didn't explain myself well enough the first time, peope who voted in the lynch pile rounds 1 and 3). These people are:
Bugger, GottaLoveElves, Montague, Thanos.

2. Again, the question is where the wolves are: Are they out of the ToL pile, or in it? Are they out of the Liq pile, or in it? This is a tricky question because it relies on wolf behaviour. I have the idea in my head, but it's not clearly articulated yet, so this may come out extraoridinarily garbled the first time around:
First of all, we have to figure out why the wolves decided to go for a "top-heavy" game. It can't be strictly that it had led to a sweep in Mafia II, because the opposite strategy was employed last werewolf game with exactly the same result. There are two trains of thought as to the wolves' goals: either they did it for a "real" game, ie a ballsy move, or they did it out of nessecity, in which case all three wolves are talkative/good players (and therefore the pile of good/talkative players would shrink and suddenly stop, exposing them). A third possibility that's really just a corollary to the second one is that the nessecity lay not in their activity or skill, but in their voting pattern. If all three had voted to lynch ToL, they would have to choose from outside the pile for their kills.

3. So, are all the wolves skilled, or is it just one reckless leader? The "one leader" idea has lost some of its merit thanks to Liq's cithood (as the pool of players who fit that description is now practically empty), but other than that we have no leads.

4. Who are players who watch for pile analysis and know it well enough to know how to hide from it?
-Jazaray
-PD
-Bugger
-GLE
-PGB
-AGM, potentially (after last game)

5. Who are the players who have shown in their past or in their personality to potentially go for a thrill ride as the wolves if given the chance?
-Jazaray
-GLE
-Montague (? I don't know his history very well)

6. We have to keep in mind that MasterWolf was the first kill. Now, his death could have been purely random and its correlation between all the others entirely coincidental, but I find it more likely that a plan involving killing the quiets was the M.O. from the start. This therefore rules out the idea of it being a necessity due to block voting, but doesn't rule out the possibility of either or both occurring- only that it was done accidentally. In short, it again points towards experienced wolves.

I can't see anything more conclusive to be strained from the above, so for now that's it from me. These are my thoughts as you see them; I have some ill-formed and incoherent suspicions and ideas bouncing around my head but the force isn't with me today and I can't pick out a clear direction out from the mental fog. I'll try and bang out something tonight, but it may have to wait until tomorrow.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
...why do you suspect AGM and/or XPR?

---

First, he keeps trying to get Liq to state a reason for his accusation of TOL, like there is ever a reason r1? I would attribute that to his being a n00b, however he was VERY clear to say that he's watched ww's 6-8 and that he's not really a noob. ( Apr-07 09:22 AM)

He spent much of the first couple rounds suspecting PD, calling PD an ass and also posts that he doesn't think Liq is a ww, just a "passionate cit" (Apr-06 06:59 PM, Apr-07 06:47 AM, Apr-07 09:22 AM, Apr-07 05:59 PM)

However, when it comes down to "Liq vs PD", he all of a sudden, decides that Liq is more suspicious or "dangerous" than PD and will vote for him. (Apr-09 12:17 PM, Apr-10 10:46 AM)

To me, it seems that he was trying to get PD out in the beginning, but when he saw that Liq was on the block, switched over to Liq because he's the stronger player.

He posted his "surprise" of rev being a cit, but he apparently wasn't surprised that Liq was.. His switch on PD is also confusing. Now he's agreeable and "PD is right" all over the place.

Voting for XplicitR.

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

"Who is smart enough to pull a bluff where they make it seem as though the wolves are thrill-seekers, when really they are not?"

The following three people come to mind.

1) PD
2) Bugger
3) PGB

If the kills have told us anything, it's that there has to be at least one wolf among one of those five individuals. Why? Because they're all good players. Quiet players don't kill quiet players. It makes their silence blatantly obvious. Similarly, top players can't kill all of the other top players because they stick out too much after a few rounds. Now, paralells have been drawn between the last Mafia game (where the top players lived) and the last WW game (where they were killed), and it's been mentioned that both strategies have turned out successful. But if you look at who the mafia/werewolves were in each game, you see that isn't actually the case. Last game, revenger and I enjoyed being being ranked pretty low on the skill-totem pole, so we were able to knock off the good players without arousing any suspicion. However, had we had someone like PD on our team, that wouldn't have worked (our kill lineup would've been GLE, PGB, Bugger, and Jaz ... with PD still standing). In this game, almost all the arrows are pointing to at least one top player being a wolf.

So, the question becomes the following: is the wolf in command in the thrill-seeker or the bluffer pile?

The problem is that it's impossible to determine a priori which of those two groups represents the wolf strategy. Both tactics are equally plausible, and a wolf could technically be in one or both. However, this doesn't mean we are left with nothing. The answer comes, in my opinion, in looking beyond pile analysis and matching how well each player's style matches with their ulterior motives. Pile analysis can help, but a smart wolf will know how to dodge and even manipulate it. Motive effectiveness, on the other hand, is harder to hide, as good players will naturally achieve their goals.

As of right now, I'm inclined to think the wolf falls in the bluff pile. GLE as a wolf doesn't make sense - why would he leave the top players alive both a) to hide between and b) to have fun with and then blatantly drop out of the game? As for Jaz, although she has posted more than GLE, she still doesn't really seem to be seeking a thrill this game. She only really makes one substantive post per round, and doesn't really engage any of the other players directly except to quote for evidence. Finally, like I said earlier, I don't really see Montague as the thrill-seeker, so he doesn't fit this profile for me.

So, it comes down to PGB, Bugger, or PD. I don't have time to comb the thread for evidence at this time, but by voting time tomorrow, I'll have submitted my vote for one of these three.

quote:

---

Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
[...] However, I think there's a second question that must be asked.

"Who is smart enough to pull a bluff where they make it seem as though the wolves are thrill-seekers, when really they are not?"

The following three people come to mind.

1) PD
2) Bugger
3) PGB

[...] So, it comes down to PGB, Bugger, or PD. I don't have time to comb the thread for evidence at this time, but by voting time tomorrow, I'll have submitted my vote for one of these three.

---

You on the other had, DO fit the role of a thrill seeker. Given that last game you and your fellow wolves block voted rounds 4 (#331) and 5 (#367). You've voted with XPR R1 to R3 of this game. The two of you are all that remains of the R1-REV pile, and despite the wolves penchant for wasting silent players, you still seem to be here. Quick--name a living player with fewer posts than you. There aren't any, in fact prior to your post above you had fewer posts than anyone else.

I noted earlier the wolves are herding the cits towards obvious targets (namely myself, and PGB) and you've managed to select myself, PGB, and the other most controversial player this game, Bugger -- who had a vocal spat with fwy before fwy was eaten.

If the herd idles long enough, the cowboy is bound to show up and start leading them.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jazaray:
After going through Xpr's posts again, I'm agreeing with Bernie.

First, he keeps trying to get Liq to state a reason for his accusation of TOL, like there is ever a reason r1? I would attribute that to his being a n00b, however he was VERY clear to say that he's watched ww's 6-8 and that he's not really a noob. ( Apr-07 09:22 AM)

He spent much of the first couple rounds suspecting PD, calling PD an ass and also posts that he doesn't think Liq is a ww, just a "passionate cit" (Apr-06 06:59 PM, Apr-07 06:47 AM, Apr-07 09:22 AM, Apr-07 05:59 PM)

However, when it comes down to "Liq vs PD", he all of a sudden, decides that Liq is more suspicious or "dangerous" than PD and will vote for him. (Apr-09 12:17 PM, Apr-10 10:46 AM)

To me, it seems that he was trying to get PD out in the beginning, but when he saw that Liq was on the block, switched over to Liq because he's the stronger player.

He posted his "surprise" of rev being a cit, but he apparently wasn't surprised that Liq was.. His switch on PD is also confusing. Now he's agreeable and "PD is right" all over the place.

Voting for XplicitR.

Thanks,
Jazaray

---

I bolded the parts I found to be most suspicious.
I see a strong argument for lynching XPR, but there's one thing I can't shake: aside from the revenger lynch, the R2 XPR pile has been untouched. It's also the only cohesive pile on a player that's still alive left. If anyone were a likely victim for herding, it seems it would be XPR. Now, that's not to say this is a weak argument, but most of them apply to more than one player, are easily defended, or are nonarguments. The bolded parts are the points that I myself found to be genuinely suspicious, but they simply don't outweigh the rest.

quote:

---

Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
I agree with a lot of what Bugger said, but I am most drawn to the question he asked at the end of his post: "who is likely to go for a thrill ride as a wolf;" I agree that both Jaz and GLE fit that profile - Montague, not as much. However, I think there's a second question that must be asked.

"Who is smart enough to pull a bluff where they make it seem as though the wolves are thrill-seekers, when really they are not?"

The following three people come to mind.

1) PD
2) Bugger
3) PGB

If the kills have told us anything, it's that there has to be at least one wolf among one of those five individuals. Why? Because they're all good players. Quiet players don't kill quiet players. It makes their silence blatantly obvious. Similarly, top players can't kill all of the other top players because they stick out too much after a few rounds. Now, paralells have been drawn between the last Mafia game (where the top players lived) and the last WW game (where they were killed), and it's been mentioned that both strategies have turned out successful. But if you look at who the mafia/werewolves were in each game, you see that isn't actually the case. Last game, revenger and I enjoyed being being ranked pretty low on the skill-totem pole, so we were able to knock off the good players without arousing any suspicion. However, had we had someone like PD on our team, that wouldn't have worked (our kill lineup would've been GLE, PGB, Bugger, and Jaz ... with PD still standing). In this game, almost all the arrows are pointing to at least one top player being a wolf.

So, the question becomes the following: is the wolf in command in the thrill-seeker or the bluffer pile?

The problem is that it's impossible to determine a priori which of those two groups represents the wolf strategy. Both tactics are equally plausible, and a wolf could technically be in one or both. However, this doesn't mean we are left with nothing. The answer comes, in my opinion, in looking beyond pile analysis and matching how well each player's style matches with their ulterior motives. Pile analysis can help, but a smart wolf will know how to dodge and even manipulate it. Motive effectiveness, on the other hand, is harder to hide, as good players will naturally achieve their goals.

As of right now, I'm inclined to think the wolf falls in the bluff pile. GLE as a wolf doesn't make sense - why would he leave the top players alive both a) to hide between and b) to have fun with and then blatantly drop out of the game? As for Jaz, although she has posted more than GLE, she still doesn't really seem to be seeking a thrill this game. She only really makes one substantive post per round, and doesn't really engage any of the other players directly except to quote for evidence. Finally, like I said earlier, I don't really see Montague as the thrill-seeker, so he doesn't fit this profile for me.

So, it comes down to PGB, Bugger, or PD. I don't have time to comb the thread for evidence at this time, but by voting time tomorrow, I'll have submitted my vote for one of these three.

--AlmasterGM

---

It's funny, we seem to be so much in agreement on where to look and how to get there, and yet we arrive at different conclusions (although I will say I'm flattered by your inclusion of me in that list; I think you give me too much credit ). I think it's completely possible, and furthermore probable, that GLE or Jaz is a wolf.

GLE:
GLE has a proven history of brazen play- in WW... 5, it was, he threw fwy (a fellow wolf) under the bus and skated that high to victory with practically no one suspecting him. He fits the rest of the wolf profile: He is a strong player who's firsthand seen the way both a top-heavy and a headless WW/mafia game play out, he's never shied away from taking risks, and he's proven he can skate by in disguise fairly well. Which means that we should be taking his silence as an indicator of potential guilt rather than one of innocence- if he's already playing a bluff game, who's to say he hasn't gone "all the way" and bluffed in his participation as well? And keep in mind while he missed the R2 vote he did NOT miss the R3 vote- but without any activity on the thread. What's more, PGB outright ASKED him to contribute, and there has been no response. His play this round has been remarkably similar to yours last round: usual level of activity early on, but drop out afterward and skate by.
GLE will probably earn my vote this round.

Jaz, on the other hand... well, she's Jaz. She's proven many times over to be a dangerous wolf, and if the tales of her mafia past I hear of are true at all, she certainly has no issues with bluffing as scum. I can easily see her doing this, despite not being in the R1 ToL pile.

This has to be truncated due to time constraints; expect more on Jaz to come sometime around midday.

So did the wolves scatter or clump up? Did they hide in the obvious TOL pile en masse? I have no idea... all I have is intuition.

Earlier my intuition led me to believe that there were probably 2 (or even 3) wolves in the TOL pile. But that 2 would hide in there would probably be the expected case--and precisely because it is the expected case makes me wonder if it is not the case. Did the wolves do something unexpected, so as to trip us up?

I really don't know, and I've been dreading this point, because I am simply going to have to guess.

So I'm guessing there's 1 or probably 2 wolves in the R1-REV pile. XPR appears to be the favorite, and AGM tripped my alarms by making a push toward the very players I identified as the endpoint of the wolves' herding behavior. R1-REV is where I am pinning my hopes to bag a wolf.

I have reasons to suspect both XPR and AGM. And right now I suspect AGM a little more than XPR. But, since XPR is the favorite, I'll vote XPR because I don't want to waste my vote. We strive for bigger piles in the late game because it gets easier for the wolves to manipulate the vote through numbers.

EDIT: typo... also, Bug posted while I was posting. I understand what you are saying Bugsie, but at present I am unconvinced that GLE or Jaz is a wolf. I thought Jaz's indictment of XPR was pretty solid.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
While I'm not above taking a risk to make a point I don't really fit the mold of the thrill-seeker. This should have been brought home in the early game where people hassled me for being too cautious.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
I didn't say you were a risk taker - I said the opposite. I said i thought you were smart enough to make it SEEM like the wolves where thrill-seekers when they actually were not.

---

068. Apr-04 02:02 PM: PlasteredDragon - Thoughts on TOL's early OOC silence, exciting-game theory, TOL's odd posts, TOL's theory about the MW kill. - (ref: Bug, GLE, Liq, MW, Monty, PGB, TOL)

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
The exciting game theory is only one, and I'd caution against relying on it based on a single kill. Yes it's possible that the wolves watched Mafia-2 and have decided to play the EXACT SAME STRATEGY. But a lot of us watched Mafia-2, so maybe that's just the conclusion they are hoping we'd make. [...]

Anyway, I'm not trying to be difficult for difficulty's sake, I'm just cautioning against putting too much stock in any conclusions drawn from the MW kill. In later rounds a pattern may become apparent.

---

069. Apr-04 02:13 PM: Bugger - Re: PD#68 - you are preaching to the choir. - (ref: PD)

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
If you read what I'd said, you'd realize you're preaching to the choir.

---

073. Apr-04 04:13 PM: PlasteredDragon - Truth through repetition (exciting game theory), Liq is annoying, confirms TOL's post counts. - (ref: Bug, Liq, TOL)

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
The point was for everybody to consider, not just you. The more people repeat the "exciting game" theory, the greater the risk that folks will just start to accept it because it's been repeated so often. Truth through repetition works--just ask the republicans.

---

Heck, back when I was sure Liq was a wolf I said: "Exciting game" theory my butt--hardly a ringing endorsement.