quote:

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Currently Voting : AlmasterGM

Reason : 2 votes with no declaration. Both Resulting in the lynching of a villager.

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Late night. Thought Almaster had voted ToL in R1. Now after looking at the votes from the previous 2 rounds, I am no longer voting him.

quote:

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Currently Voting : Bugger

Reason : 3rd Person to declare a vote for ToL thereby establishing a bandwagon.

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quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
he suspects PGB for not declaring? I thought not declaring was supposed to be BAD for the wolves? (And for that matter Liq is doing it again this round with AGM--voting someone for not declaring and for the ****-poor reason that they've voted two cits in a row.)

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Not declaring is good when the seer is alive as it is a tactic to keep him alive.

Not declaring after the seer is dead is bad when you consider that the Villagers must have as much information as possible in order to find the wolves.

I suspect AlmasterGM because I don't know when he put down a vote nor why he put down that vote. To me, an undeclared vote that may have tipped the scales is suspicious. Its a long held wolf tactic. If he comes out now with an explanation of his vote, I will consider it suspect.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
The wolves are strong. Why would I think this?
1. The ratios. Right now we have 5 strong players (Liq, GLE, PGB, Jaz, PD), 4 average players (BernieB, Bugger, AGM, Montague), and 3 newer/other players (Thanos, Fwy, XPR)

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Lets get these right.

Strong Players:
Liq
GLE
PGB
PD

Average Players:
Thanos
Jaz
Fwyb
Bernie
Monty
Almaster

Novice Players:
Bugger
Xpl

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
I switch votes all the time. I'd ask MM to confirm but he'd refuse. I switched votes last round too. Since someone's not reading my posts, I'll point out that I have recommended many times in previous games to place a vote early in the round so that if you forget or can't get online, at least MM will have a vote for you. I simply have the honesty to admit what my early votes are and to admit that they may change later. So basically it boils down to: Chuck did exactly what he said he was going to do. Wow. Suspicious.

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I'd consider this standard practice for PD which is why I did not consider it suspect in R2.

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Then Liq says I'm suddenly not suspicious (in defiance of his own claims earlier that I would be 50% likely to be a wolf if TOL turned out to be a cit)

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50% is where I place everyone at the start of every game. You are either a wolf or you are not. No two ways around that.

However ToL wasn't just revealed as a villager but the seer. That forced me to hold back on my distrust of you since that was subjective and I didn't want to possibly influence a bad idea for the villagers.

quote:

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Suspicion List :

• High

  XplicitR (60%)
  Bugger (60%)
  PlasteredDragon (70%)

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Right now my theory stands at the wolves want to try to play the most recent mafia tactic. An actual game. Now in order to do that you have to have a player who will manipulate the other voters, a player who will agree with (or echo) any bad idea, and one who remains off the radar.

For the player who manipulates you need a good strong player. Between PD, GLE, PGB and myself, the one who's been voicing their opinions the most is PD. Which is why I consider him highly suspect.

For Xpl and Bugger, I suspect that one or both are wolf but unlikely that neither are. Each fit the profile of the agreeable wolf.

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Suspicion List :

• Low

  GottaLoveElves (45%)
  puregoblinboy47 (45%)

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As it stands, I do not suspect these 2 of being wolf since I currently suspect PD of being a wolf. Should PD actually be a villager, then my suspicion of these two will rise accordingly.

quote:

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Suspicion List :

• Mid

  AlmasterGM (49%)
  BernieB (50%)
  fwybwed (50%)
  Jazaray (50%)
  Montague (51%)
  Thanos (50%)

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Right now, I am not paying much attention to these players as such I am placing them in my mid range group to be looked at later.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:

He voted in R1A and moved to the random pile afterward. His "blabbing" post could just as easily been a bluff (which coincides with keeping the R1A pile big and discourages us from going in)

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Yeah, I'll disagree with your assessment of the other players Liq. There should be more people on your "novice" list, and Bugger doesn't belong there--he may be new, but he's quite smart. I think you rated him on par with XPR for one reason only--he's voting for you and you need to downplay the value of his opinion.

Regarding the "agreeable wolf + strong wolf" notion--that could be PGB and you, as easily as it could be Bugger & PD.

Personally I have no idea if Bugger is a wolf. I have noted a couple minor things there, but it pales in comparison to what I've noticed about you and PGB.

Regarding your percentages, you are too smart not to understand that the fact that someone either is a wolf or is not doesn't mean that it is a 50/50 proposition. If I buy a lottery ticket, I will either win or I will not. Are my chances 50/50? No of course not.

There are 12 players of which 3 are wolves. (Three winning lottery tickets out of twelve.) We each have one lottery ticket, and therefore each persons chance of winning (being a wolf) is 3/12 = 1/4 = 25%. Not 50%. 25%.

This is why I use wolf-weights where 1.0 is shorthand for (1.0 X Base Wolf Weight) i.e. 1.0 x 3/12 = 25%. So when I note that I estimate your wolf weight at 1.15 that means 1.15 x (3/12) or approx 29%, which accordingly results in everybody else's chance dropping slightly. Your use of such large percentages creates the perception of much larger chances or stronger conviction.

If 70% means what you are now defining it as, what you REALLY mean is (.7 / .5) x (3/12) = 1.4 x 0.25 = 35% -- so basically you think my chance of being a wolf is 1 in 3 instead of 1 in 4 which is what the base chance is right now. And not 70%... otherwise known as 7 out of 10 or well more than 2 in 3. Mislead much?

quote:

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Originally posted by Liq:

So why did I "switch" my vote from my R1 suspect in R2? Perhaps it was because my R1 suspect was dead.

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No freaking duh. Maybe I should be a little clearer about what I mean.
I give Round 1 piles alphabetical names (A, B, C...), Round 2 piles numerical names (1, 2, 3...), Round 3 piles greek character names (Alpha, Beta, Gamma...) because each round's pile is equivalent in several ways to the others who share the same ordinal location. For example, A1alpha is whatever the largest pile of the round is that votes for a single player (the lynchee's pile), meta-pile B2beta is the second-largest pile of the round with votes for one player, and pile 3Cgamma is the "random" pile. The pile system does not reinvent itself each round, and by classifying them into relative equals makes it possible to compare them and find trends. For example, had you stayed where you were you would have gone A1, and participated in the two largest lynching piles (Thanos did this, for comparison). Instead, you went A3- from voting in a huge group to voting on your own. Come on, Liq. You're smart enough to get this.

So when I say the wolves probably scattered, what I mean is instead of going , say, A1/A1/B2, they probably went (as a pure random example) A3/A2/B1. They didn't vote in the same meta-pattern as they did in R1.

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Then who did I vote in R2? oh yeah someone in the big ToL pile. You in fact. Seems like your theory is quite off. Or perhaps that is what you want.

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I never said you didn't. What you ARE doing consistently is voting for players you consider to be new and/or weak, which is in line with the wolf kills with the exception that the wolf kills carefully circumvent the R1A pile. And you're not stupid enough to do exactly the same- that's a trend pretty much anyone could notice. Stop misrepresenting what I'm saying.

Anyways I didn't mean anything by it but you are free to read into it.

quote:

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Originally posted by Liq:

Right now my theory stands at the wolves want to try to play the most recent mafia tactic. An actual game. Now in order to do that you have to have a player who will manipulate the other voters, a player who will agree with (or echo) any bad idea, and one who remains off the radar.

For the player who manipulates you need a good strong player. Between PD, GLE, PGB and myself, the one who's been voicing their opinions the most is PD. Which is why I consider him highly suspect.

For Xpl and Bugger, I suspect that one or both are wolf but unlikely that neither are. Each fit the profile of the agreeable wolf.

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Let's assume you're right on the money for a second, and that me, Chuck, and let's say.... Thanos? are all wolves (thus fitting your plan). Chuck is taking the role in that instance then of the wolf who's trying to manipulate the cits (and I'm the one with bad ideas, correct? ). If so, that would make him the more dangerous player, and therefore logically the most important to remove. So, why are you voting for me then? If it comes down to it, Jaz can use the tracker to sub in for PD's data posts, which are the strongest encouragement he has for us to keep us in the game, so it can't be that. EDIT: And to top it all off, he brings up the front of your suspicion list at 70%. I'm 60% by comparison. I'm not saying you're voting me to try and marginalize and silence me, but damnit if it doesn't look like that. Also, and I failed to mention this the first time around:

quote:

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Originally posted by Liq:

So why did I "switch" my vote from my R1 suspect in R2? Perhaps it was because my R1 suspect was dead. Then who did I vote in R2? oh yeah someone in the big ToL pile. You in fact. Seems like your theory is quite off. Or perhaps that is what you want.

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Aside from being condescending (not the suspicious part), this particular bit seems designed almost completely to discredit through oversimplification rather than actually refuting my central point (yes, I debate politics, I know what these things look like). And furthermore this has a very fwy/bernek-style ring to it. "Or maybe that is what you want"? How is that anything but an empty jab?
Is this sort of thing OOC for Liq , or does he do this often?

There has been no further insight.

Bugger, umm those crumbs again. here's a nappykin.

M-O-O-N that spells crumbs, haws yes!

@fwy/pgb: We've all got convenient reasons to not have to be around defending our position during voting time, huh? Well it looks like you two are going to get your wish. But it's going to cost you. Liq's vote makes no sense in the light of his own suspicions, so there is a good chance he'll switch to me. XPR will probably vote for me too. So that's 4 votes on me at least.

Also, Thanos has voted in the largest pile each round, so it stands to reason he'll probably vote PD as well. So 4 or 5.

No point in moving my vote, there's clearly interest in lynching me, and apparently it's necessary. So looking ahead a little, what can we learn from my departure?

Population will be 11 players, 3 wolves + 8 cits, TOL pile still huge, but widening holes forming in other piles:

R1-Random: fwy (BB), Jaz (fwy)
R1-REV: AGM, XPR
R1-TOL: BB, BUG, GLE, LIQ, MONTY, PGB, TNOS

R2-NOVOTE: GLE, PGB
R2-Random: FWY (PD), LIQ (BUG), MON (LIQ)
R2-REV: AGM, JAZ, TNOS, XPR
R2-XPR: BB, BUG

What you cits really need to ask yourselves is how likely is it that there are wolves in either the R1-Random, or R1-Revenger piles? You've got 2 lynches left and those piles amount to 4 players. If there is but one wolf among them you stand a chance of bagging him (or her). Simple process of elimination--1/4 = 25%, 1/3 = 33%--and the chances are better if you can figure out which pile it is.

If you think the wolves went for a standard scatter pattern then that means either there is 1 wolf in R1-REV and 1 in R1-Random, OR they are both in R1-Random (remember random is a pile of convenience)--two wolves in that pile are still (from their own perspectives) voting in different directions. That said, if there are two wolves in the small R1 piles, your chances of bagging one aren't bad. At least 2/4 = 50% in R4, and 2/3 = 67% in R5. (Obviously these percentages change if the wolves continue to kill in those piles.)

What if there are no wolves in the small piles? The wolves have been telling us that by placing their kills in those piles (R1 kill --> R1-Random, R2 kill --> R1-REV). Yes, yes, double bluff, blah blah blah. It's wise to be cognizant of the double bluff, but it's also wise to realize that the threat of the double bluff can simply result in the cits doing NOTHING.

If there are no wolves in the small piles, your chances of bagging one from the largest pile in R4 (assuming the pile is still 7) is 3/7 or 42%. That would be much better odds than going for the small piles.

If there are TWO wolves in the large pile, your R4 chance of bagging one is 2/7 or 28%--still better than bagging 1 wolf in the small piles. Even if you missed in R4, your chances in R5 would be 2/6 or 33%--identical to the pursuit of a single wolf in the small piles.

The only other possibility is NO wolves in the TOL pile. That just doesn't seem likely to me--if you guys think it is and I'm wrong, then you can sew this game up in short order.

But looking at the more likely options (1 or 2 wolves in TOL pile), from a standpoint of probability alone the real question is: did at least two wolves break for the big pile, or did only 1 wolf go there?

If it's 2 in the TOL pile, your best option in R4 and R5 is to pursue the TOL pile. If it is only 1 in the TOL pile, your best option R4 and R5 is to wipe out the small piles--and probably starting in the revenger pile since it was the "visible alternative" during round 1.

Personally my intuition tells me there's probably 2 wolves in the TOL pile. Further, my intuition says if one of them is Liq, he's plenty ballsy enough to see to it that ALL the wolves are in that pile--just to prove he's earned his Captain N stripes even though the wolves block-voted in R1.

Thoughts on Players:

As you know, I count references as part of my tracking (who is talking about whom). The process is automated and imperfect because people are inconsistent in the way they refer to each other, but it is still pretty accurate. I'm not putting this list in order of weighted suspicion, but instead in the order that the crowd is talking about players, from least to most.

AlmasterGM (17 refs / 5 posts / 1.01 WW / REV / REV) - nobody is talking about AGM. Honestly I'm not surprised because he's not talking about most players either. Silents get a free ride, and at 5 posts in 3 rounds (none this round so far), AGM is tied for most quiet player. I certainly HOPE he's not a wolf, but if he is he's doing a perfect job of flying under the radar. His consistent votes for revenger were understandable, nothing too weird in his voting patterns. +.01 Wolf Weight for being quiet.

Thanos (19 refs / 5 posts / 1.015 WW / TOL / REV) - nobody is talking about Thanos. He's tied with AGM, as expected, for quietest player. His voting pattern is slightly more suspicious than AGM's in that he's managed to late-declare for the largest pile both rounds... is he hiding in the crowd? +.015 WW for quiet / piling large.

Jazaray (22 refs / 9 posts / 1.0 WW / FWY / REV) - despite talking twice as much as the silents, nobody is really talking about Jaz. She hasn't floated any major theories this game that I can recall, but has otherwise played a consistent game. WW = 1.0 -- even odds player.

BernieB (26 refs / 8 posts / 1.01 WW / TOL / XPR) - he's pretty close to the average posting level this game (9.8 posts per player), and has been pretty consistent with his previous games. The one thing about Bernie which I've noticed is that his voting record mirrors Bugger's. I'll explain why that bugs me when I get to Bugger. For now Bernie gets +.01 WW for voting with Bugger two rounds in a row.

GottaLoveElves (26 refs / 7 posts / 1.01 WW / TOL / NOVOTE) - seven posts, GLE? GLE's usually more talkative--not the noisiest player on the block but not nearly this quiet. Hasn't posted at all this round, missed the last vote. Must be busy, I guess. But I suspect him for being less talkative than usual. +.01 WW for OOC silence. There are 4 players GLE is not talking about - AGM, fwybwed, PGB, and XPR. I find that interesting.

fwybwed (29 refs / 11 posts / 1.0 WW / BB / PD) - People are talking about fwy, though for R1 and R2 they seem to have largely ignored his voting choices (he has the lowest voted-with score of any player--nobody voted with fwy R1 and R2--that will change this round.) Fwy's chatty, and IMHO, doesn't make much sense at all. He's been brash, aggressive, and his arguments are just plain bad. However this is in-character for fwy. Fwy doesn't talk about AGM, GLE, PGB, and Thanos. I find it interesting that fwy and GLE don't talk about the same players (or each other). I find it more interesting that fwy and PGB are suspecting the same people, and yet they never address each other as well. At present I have him at 1.0.

XplicitR (30 refs / 15 posts / 1.05 WW / REV / REV) - Having tussled with me, Bugger, and Liq, XPR has no shortage of references from other players. He's pretty chatty. I suspected him strongly in R2 until his insistance that REV was a wolf when it was clear REV would be revealed. Bugger was right however, and this could be because of coaching--designed to make him look innocent. His voting record has been consistent, but his posting behavior seems both contrived and directed--he appears to be acting under orders to me. +0.05 WW. XPR has talked about everybody except fwy--which is weird since XPR and fwy both suspect the same player--PD.

puregoblinboy27 (31 refs / 9 posts / 1.15 WW / TOL / NOVOTE) - PGB's voted identically to GLE, and his post count is right at the average. But you know where I stand with PGB--his R1 posts were utterly empty, and his R2 approach was to suddenly jump on me and stick with me since like it was still WW7. Unlike fwy his arguments are at least coherent, but not strong. Nonetheless he has either unflagging conviction, or an agenda. And unflagging conviction seems OOC for PGB IMHO. As noted, PGB's posts went from empty to fixated, and as a result he's only talked about a few still-living players: GLE, Liq, PD. He has a couple refs to rev and TOL as well. He's not talking about fwy or XPR despite commonality of suspicions. Sorry PGB, but I think you are a wolf. +0.15 WW. That said, if you are just overly convicted for poor reasons, you are about to discover it. I want you to understand either way--no hard feelings, you gotta do what you think is right.

Montague (32 refs / 10 posts / 0.99 WW / TOL / LIQ) - I have Monty at slightly under 1 because he voted for Liq. If you guys ever get around to lynching Liq, and he turns out to be a cit, I'd put Monty back at 1.0. His refs are scattered... more people talk about him than he talks about. But nothing there jumps out at me. I have no suspicion of Monty at present. -0.01 WW for voting Liq.

Bugger (43 refs / 34 posts / 1.01 WW / TOL / XPR) - Having worked with Sean as a WW, I can say that he is brilliant and very capable. I hope he's not a wolf, because I'm convinced I'd never be able to tell. For the most part I have no suspicion of him, apart from one minor thing. In Bugger's pile analysis he made a point of saying that the wolves leaving the TOL pile from R1 to R2 would probably not block vote. Since Bugger and BernieB were both in the TOL pile and they block-voted, it makes it seem like Bugger is automatically excluding himself (and Bernie) from suspicion. I don't really think either of them are wolves but that bugs me a little. Bug talks about everybody, and pretty much everybody talks about Bug. +0.01 WW.

Liq (62 refs / 13 posts / 1.2 WW / TOL / BUG) - okay you know where I stand with Liq. First, he shouldn't be alive right now--exciting game or not, there's no reason not to take out the strongest player R0N. No matter what fwy or XPR try to say, Liq really lead the charge on TOL in R1. Of his 13 posts, most of them (9) took place all in the first round, and of those more than half (5) mentioned TOL. Yes, I suspected TOL too, but I did not maintain strong levels of suspicion on him (nor did I end up casting my vote for him) like Liq did. Once TOL was revealed Liq changed the targets of suspicion and almost as if on cue, XPR and PGB picked them up. Liq made a number of innaccurate statements, put forward some misleading math, and has been noted by Bugger appears to be "psychographically" (yay! I learned a new word!)consistent with the wolves this game. It's true I suspect Liq pretty much every game because of how he chooses to comport and conduct himself... one of these times I'm going to be right. Is this it?

So as of now my top three suspects are Liq, PGB, and XPR. But you knew that already.

Today is going to be a crazy day at work--trying to get some documentation out the door... so like fwy & PGB, I'm not going to be around to defend my position. At this point my arguments ought to be clear enough and you ought to be able make up your mind as to whether I am right, wrong, or somewhere in between.

The important thing is, if I die, some of you may want to go after the people who put me down. While I definitely encourage taking a hard look at them, don't let my lynching be a reason to suspect them. You've only got 2 rounds left after this one--only two more chances to bag a wolf. I may be completely above board and still be completely wrong. Just asking that, my identity established, you give my arguments a second look.

Thanks guys, good game and good luck!

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

Liq (62 refs / 13 posts / 1.2 WW / TOL / BUG) - okay you know where I stand with Liq. First, he shouldn't be alive right now--exciting game or not, there's no reason not to take out the strongest player R0N. No matter what fwy or XPR try to say, Liq really lead the charge on TOL in R1. Of his 13 posts, most of them (9) took place all in the first round, and of those more than half (5) mentioned TOL. Yes, I suspected TOL too, but I did not maintain strong levels of suspicion on him (nor did I end up casting my vote for him) like Liq did. Once TOL was revealed Liq changed the targets of suspicion and almost as if on cue, XPR and PGB picked them up. Liq made a number of innaccurate statements, put forward some misleading math, and has been noted by Bugger appears to be "psychographically" (yay! I learned a new word!)consistent with the wolves this game. It's true I suspect Liq pretty much every game because of how he chooses to comport and conduct himself... one of these times I'm going to be right. Is this it?

Thanks guys, good game and good luck!

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quote:

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Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
Not enough time to break down your whole post, but a broken clock is right twice a day. Am I to interpret that this is your argument against Liq? Hasn't been right yet.

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No, it isn't. I just spelled it out for you, duh.

God PGB, you're about to proven spectacularly wrong, don't make it worse for yourself--you should be planning for your post-lynch alternatives now, not digging yourself in deeper.

Everybody knows there is nothing I can say which will convince you, we've made our arguments, let the populace decide.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Not enough time to spell it all out for you again, but I'm not sure who you think you are fooling by highlighting the VERY LAST POINT in a list of points and saying "gee is that your whole argument"?

No, it isn't. I just spelled it out for you, duh.

God PGB, you're about to proven spectacularly wrong, don't make it worse for yourself--you should be planning for your post-lynch alternatives now, not digging yourself in deeper.

Everybody knows there is nothing I can say which will convince you, we've made our arguments, let the populace decide.

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And you seem to misinterpret my post. Shall I "spell it out" for you?

quote:

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It's true I suspect Liq pretty much every game because of how he chooses to comport and conduct himself... one of these times I'm going to be right. Is this it?

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Followed by

quote:

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Not enough time to break down your whole post, but a broken clock is right twice a day. Am I to interpret that this is your argument against Liq? Hasn't been right yet.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Piles (Bugger):
Pile C (random):
Fwybwed (bernieb), Jazaray (fwy), PlasteredDragon (thanos)

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I'd like to point out that PD's little switch from TOL to Thanos has gone largely unnoticed by everyone doing pile analysis and that there are far-reaching implications behind that switch. PD's logic was that he switched to Thanos (an essentially random vote) because he wanted to keep the TOL pile of a "manageable" size. That's fine, but notice the other effect - PD is now consistently being counted as being in the "random" pile when he really belongs in the TOL pile. This may mean nothing. However, if anyone knows how to work piles in this game, it's PD, so I think we should be careful about this to make sure we aren't being manipulated.

quote:

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Originally posted by Liq:
Strong Players:
Liq
GLE
PGB
PD

Average Players:
Thanos
Jaz
Fwyb
Bernie
Monty
Almaster

Novice Players:
Bugger
Xpl

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quote:

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Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
The tone of this post seems to imply that you don't think I am a wolf after all.

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quote:

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Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
And you seem to misinterpret my post. Shall I "spell it out" for you?

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quote:

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Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
I just don't think you can read him, this frustrates you, so you suspect him.

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quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
I'd like to point out that PD's little switch from TOL to Thanos has gone largely unnoticed by everyone doing pile analysis and that there are far-reaching implications behind that switch. PD's logic was that he switched to Thanos (an essentially random vote) because he wanted to keep the TOL pile of a "manageable" size. That's fine, but notice the other effect - PD is now consistently being counted as being in the "random" pile when he really belongs in the TOL pile.

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Liq~Tol
PD~Tol
Monty~Tol
GLE~Tol
Bugger~Tol
Bernie~Tol
Thanos~Tol
PD~Change to Thanos.
rev~tol

Not only was Bugger NOT the 3rd person, he wasn't the 4th either (In reponse to Liq's other theory that the 3rd or 4th person on a wagon is a ww) So, according to his theory, he should be suspecting Monty and/or GLE, not Bugger.

This is also the first time I've heard from Liq that people should declare after the seer is gone, why has he never brought that up before? Fwy doesn't declare, why is Liq not suspicious of him?

I'm also unsure as to why he suspects PD more than GLE or PGB, they're all strong players.. The fact that they missed a vote, has actually placed them much higher on MY suspicion list. They're both active players that don't usually miss votes, and I do remember when me, rev and cait were ww's how cait missed a vote on purpose to be less suspicious.

Also, like Bugger and PD said, if he has such a high suspicion of PD, WHY is he voting for bugger, who, more than likely doesn't even have a chance of being lynched? Is it to stay out of a large pile that may come under suspicion should PD prove to be a cit?

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Liq (62 refs / 13 posts / 1.2 WW / TOL / BUG) - okay you know where I stand with Liq. First, he shouldn't be alive right now--exciting game or not, there's no reason not to take out the strongest player R0N. No matter what fwy or XPR try to say, Liq really lead the charge on TOL in R1. Of his 13 posts, most of them (9) took place all in the first round, and of those more than half (5) mentioned TOL. Yes, I suspected TOL too, but I did not maintain strong levels of suspicion on him (nor did I end up casting my vote for him) like Liq did. Once TOL was revealed Liq changed the targets of suspicion and almost as if on cue, XPR and PGB picked them up. Liq made a number of innaccurate statements, put forward some misleading math, and has been noted by Bugger appears to be "psychographically" (yay! I learned a new word!)consistent with the wolves this game. It's true I suspect Liq pretty much every game because of how he chooses to comport and conduct himself... one of these times I'm going to be right. Is this it?

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Why wasn't I killed by the wolves yet?

A similar question occurred in UBB Mafia 19.

Why isn't GLE dead yet?

Simple answer. Rust. Don't give a guy a chance to play past round 2 for a few games and he starts to lose his edge in this game. Add in an experienced player skilled in manipulation and then there's no reason to fear that player any more. The last time I was "allowed" to play was Werewolf 4.

Personally I feel I only have 3 good games as a Citizen.

UBB Mafia 13 : First known Citizen win (4 turn sweep)
UBB Mafia 37 : Last game of Mafia (3 turn sweep) - Quite Possibly the best I ever did as a Cit
Werewolf 4 : First Werewolf Citizen Sweep (3 Turns)

However I had plenty of good games on the other side of the fence thus short of being a wolf, I've never been a very good citizen which means that the wolves have little to fear from me.

Now if I was a wolf, I would have done exactly like PD did in WW7, kill the person I'm that is most likely going to get in my face. Unless I thought I could manage them. Which is what I think the wolves are doing.

quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
I'm voting for Liq this round. He seems to be trying to manipulate the data, to make it so he's right. Ex: He posted that he's voting for Bugger because "he was the 3rd to declare for TOL, thereby starting a wagon". I posted the order that people declared a few days ago. On the TOL pile it went:

Liq~Tol
PD~Tol
Monty~Tol
GLE~Tol
Bugger~Tol
Bernie~Tol
Thanos~Tol
PD~Change to Thanos.
rev~tol

Not only was Bugger NOT the 3rd person, he wasn't the 4th either (In reponse to Liq's other theory that the 3rd or 4th person on a wagon is a ww) So, according to his theory, he should be suspecting Monty and/or GLE, not Bugger.

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Liq reveals Mafia Bandwagon Theory

I'm fine with a ToL Lynch

my vote is for lack of a better option ThoughtsofLepers

I'm pretty sure that says he plans to vote ToL.

Process of Vote Declarations:

Originally posted by Liq:
posted April 03, 2009 08:09 AM

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
posted April 04, 2009 04:39 AM

Originally posted by Bugger:
posted April 04, 2009 09:49 AM

Originally posted by Montague:
posted April 04, 2009 01:14 PM

Originally posted by BernieB:
posted April 04, 2009 05:05 PM

Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
posted April 04, 2009 05:54 PM

Originally posted by Thanos:
posted April 05, 2009 02:23 PM

Originally posted by revenger:
posted April 05, 2009 05:40 PM

As you can obviously see, Bugger is the 3rd person to declare against ToL.

quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
This is also the first time I've heard from Liq that people should declare after the seer is gone, why has he never brought that up before? Fwy doesn't declare, why is Liq not suspicious of him?

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It hasn't been necessary for me to say this for a very long time. Considering I'm usually dead before the seer is.

I don't consider Fwyb as suspicious as the others because he does that every game. Consistently.

quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
Also, like Bugger and PD said, if he has such a high suspicion of PD, WHY is he voting for bugger, who, more than likely doesn't even have a chance of being lynched? Is it to stay out of a large pile that may come under suspicion should PD prove to be a cit?

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I suspect PD under simply a theory whereas I have "evidence" along with a theory that supports a vote against Bugger.

Why is it necessary for me to vote someone who is likely to get lynched? As long as I vote for who I think is suspicious, my voice will be heard.

quote:

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Currently Voting : Bugger

Reason : 3rd Person to declare a vote for ToL thereby establishing a bandwagon.

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quote:

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Suspicion List :

• High

  XplicitR (60%)
  Bugger (60%)
  PlasteredDragon (70%)

• Mid

  AlmasterGM (49%)
  BernieB (50%)
  fwybwed (50%)
  Jazaray (52%)
  Montague (51%)
  Thanos (50%)

• Low

  GottaLoveElves (45%)
  puregoblinboy47 (45%)

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__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

quote:

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Originally posted by Liq:
Process of Vote Declarations:

Originally posted by Liq:
posted April 03, 2009 08:09 AM

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
posted April 04, 2009 04:39 AM

Originally posted by Bugger:
posted April 04, 2009 09:49 AM

Originally posted by Montague:
posted April 04, 2009 01:14 PM

Originally posted by BernieB:
posted April 04, 2009 05:05 PM

Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
posted April 04, 2009 05:54 PM

Originally posted by Thanos:
posted April 05, 2009 02:23 PM

Originally posted by revenger:
posted April 05, 2009 05:40 PM

As you can obviously see, Bugger is the 3rd person to declare against ToL.

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I texted MM this morning to check if he was okay, and work is just really crazy for him. He'll be posting results today after work.

By my unofficial count it's Liq with 6, PD with 3, 2 random votes, and a NOVOTE (from GLE). It's possible GLE voted but didn't declare. Such a large pile on Liq makes me a little nervous. Generally I like larger piles in the later game because it reduces the wolves ability to manipulate the populace (and their ability gets stronger with each cit that dies)--BUT with HALF the populace voting Liq, and 25% of the populace being wolves, there's a very good chance there are wolves in the Liq pile.

Which means either I am wrong about Liq, or the wolves are making a sac play--Liq does get a lot of attn on him during games so if he is a wolf he may have planned for this. Time will tell, I guess.

Wrong or right, I think we'll learn something important from the wolfkill tonight.

Oh, and Fwy? If you're going to make a post about how I'm feeding off Chuck's "crumbles" again, do me a favor and just blow it out your ass instead.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Oh, and Fwy? If you're going to make a post about how I'm feeding off Chuck's "crumbles" again, do me a favor and just blow it out your ass instead.

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I love the friendly atmosphere ...whats taking MM so long?

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
do me a favor and just blow it out your ass instead.

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I know that this game has a lot of accusations and emotions run high, but that's no excuse for this kind of behavior.

__________________
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