Our_Benefactors ~ revenger (1)
PGB ~ NONE
fwybwed ~ PD (1)
Jazaray ~ revenger (2)
PlasteredDragon ~ XplicitR (1)
BernieB ~ XplicitR (2)
Thanos ~ revenger (3)
Bugger ~ XplicitR (3)
Liq ~ Bugger (1)
revenger ~ XplicitR (4)
AlmasterGM ~ revenger (4)
XplicitR ~ revenger (5)
GLE ~ NONE
Montague ~ Liq (1)

revenger is the next to be voted off the island. Too bad he was a villager as well.

WW's, Angel, your names please.

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 3!]

~Revenger

__________________
Aim: Revenger72 Let's chat now! Magic, FF, Star Wars! Anything!

Need a 3rd party trade? Contact me at this email address.

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
PD you seriously need to lighten up, theres no reason to act like an ass. I had to ask about the R0N angel save, because I have only really ever seen one angel save in WW.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
If your reason for lynching me is to help reduce piles by a citizen then you sound more like a wolf than a citizen.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
However, go ahead and cast your vote for me, if I do go I hope people will see you for the horrible fraud you really are. (Typically, you will then say you were wrong and then move on to your next victim)

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
so please do get off your high horse.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
I didn't think you were a wolf but your adamant behaviour in trying to portray me as one has made me reconsider this. So everyone please do realize that if I am lynched and proven that I am a citizen, PD is the reason that we are 2 down in the hole.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
I would much rather he take me out in the night phase, with his buddy revenger.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Day 5 Post 5:
And that's why I know you aren't a wolf, because it would be a darn fool thing to say when you would have known all along that revenger was a cit. That said you've made a tactical error in your post. I'll talk about it after the kill if I am still around.

---

While this is true, and it's a strong indicator of XPR's potential cithood, I don't think you should be ignoring the possibility of a double-bluff move here. It's concievable (if not really likely) that should the whole "mentor" theory be in fact true, whoever is theoretically pulling the strings could easily have him do something like that, provided they're clever enough.
But considering how conditional and redundant that is I agree it's more likely he's a cit- present circumstances considered, that is.

On another note- this round provided much healthier piles, so at least revenger got what he wanted in that respect :/. No more massive piles to pick through.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
While this is true, and it's a strong indicator of XPR's potential cithood, I don't think you should be ignoring the possibility of a double-bluff move here. It's concievable (if not really likely) that should the whole "mentor" theory be in fact true, whoever is theoretically pulling the strings could easily have him do something like that, provided they're clever enough...

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
On another note- this round provided much healthier piles, so at least revenger got what he wanted in that respect :/. No more massive piles to pick through.

---

I definitely like the R2 piles better than the R1--too bad we didn't finagle piles like this last round.

Just giving a heads up so my coming abrupt and total silence won't come as an utter suprise.

/back to waiting

Who wants desert?

~MM

Fake edit:Villagers, your votes are due Friday night!

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 3!]

PD springs to mind as a suspect(again). Every single game he says he is going to play differently, and every single game he doesn't. I alluded to one extremely out of character post he made in this game that I would like to remind everyone of:

quote:

---

AFA lynching me goes? Well folks have a habit of getting distracted by me, and it almost always leads to lynching parties once the seer is gone. After my successful bid in WW7 to stay alive, I wouldn't at all doubt that people don't feel they can trust me now. All I can tell you is, you'd be making a mistake.
Lynching me is a wasted lynch. There's no way I can prove it with the seer gone, if it has to happen to keep the cits focused, fine. But it's a waste--you will learn nothing, and lose a halfway decent player in the process. Then you'll be down to three lynches left AND there may be repercussions next round. I'd rather see us nail a wolf this round if possible.

---

I responded to it as follows:

quote:

---

Well to be fair, I never give you 100% trust at any point in any game. I mean, this is the very nature of the game itself.

As for the rest of your post, may I remind you and everyone of this. You are certainly an excellent citizen. No doubt in my mind about that. You are also one of the most dangerous wolves. I know you said you were going to play differently, but you jumping to the guilt trip right off the bat is just so unlike you.

---

To which he replied

quote:

---

I did my time dealing with crackpot theories in WW7 when I had to stay alive as long as possible because I was a WW. Why am I not fighting now? Because, duh, I don't need to stay alive in WW9--I'm just a cit and I have better things to do than fight tooth and nail in a situation where there clearly is no response that will convince you. Like I said, knock yourself out. You'll look pretty foolish once I'm swinging from the noose because you'll have killed an "excellent citizen" to use your own words. That's a nice follow-up to your part in lynching the seer last round.

These things we do have repercussions. Your case is not strong and you are smart enough to know it. If you manage to build a wagon on me, all that will happen is that next round people will be looking hard at you--and if you are a cit, consider: a round wasted lynching the seer, a round wasted lynching an "excellent cit", and then a round wasted fighting about lynching you--and then we are down to two lynches left. If you are a wolf, I assume you will be making the sac play for your buddies R3. I'll gladly go to the gallows if it meant catching a wolf in R3.

---

One part that he failed to acknowledge is something else that I called him besides an excellent cit: An extremely dangerous wolf. PD can argue and articulate an argument to pull himself out of any situatiuon. He is very skilled at making light of any judgement that goes against him now that he has more than a few games under his belt.

I know I'm biting off a lot by putting forth a formal accusation of PD, but I do feel it is justified. PD has shown that he is extremely succeptable to patterns in his gameplay. No matter how hard he goes about trying to change his style, he reverts back to his old ways. His style is formulaic, if you will. I believe he damn well knew revenger was a cit and defended him in order to have some leverage in clearing his own name for the next round after a near inevitable lynching. Just as he did for me a couple rounds ago. But he claims that the situation is different. Why?

quote:

---

These two scenarios don't align well at all. In WW7 as a wolf, having saved myself from being lynched based on GLE's accusation, I couldn't afford to come out hard against another strong player--it would have looked like a pattern--time enough to kill the strong players in the evening. As the cits had lost Liq, GLE, and their seer in WW7, if I came out vocally against you it would be bad for me. That you got lynched and revealed as a cit while I made empassioned pleas for you only made me look better. You were right that I was a wolf, but your argument against me was bad--simply that because the head-to-head between me and GLE had resulted in him getting lynched and he was a cit, then I needed to be lynched as well. That argument is no more compelling now than it was then, and that was a contributing factor to why you got lynched that round, even with me defending you.

This time around I had no huge head-to-head last round that resulted in a strong player dying. I had a minor suspicion of TOL but in the end it wasn't strong enough to base a vote on. Revenger is not a PGB-quality player, he's a nice guy and he tries, but nobody is sitting around going "Oh no! The seer died? Thank heavens we still have revenger!!!" If you want to lynch revenger lynch him. My "defense" of him is pretty weak, amounting to little more than "emotionalism is in-character for revenger"--which it is. Also (as of yet) revenger isn't leading any charge to lynch me (he didn't vote for me last round either.) It's just not the same scenario at all.

---

You left out the most important part from my argument against you. Yes this evidence is circumstancial, but remember, this is not a criminal trial. This is UBB werewolf. Your actions from previous games dictate how people perceive you. I suspected you hard because you are an excellent citizen, and getting into a squabble like that with GLE was not something an excellent citizen would do. As you are far and away the most consistant player here, it stood to reason that you don't make terrible plays like that. Since your gameplay follows patterns, it stands to reason now that you intend to "clear" your name by defending another cit that is sure to be lynched.

And to emphasize once again:

quote:

---

Lynching me is a wasted lynch. There's no way I can prove it with the seer gone, if it has to happen to keep the cits focused, fine. But it's a waste--you will learn nothing, and lose a halfway decent player in the process. Then you'll be down to three lynches left AND there may be repercussions next round. I'd rather see us nail a wolf this round if possible.

---

And you(among other players) refer to me as a strong player. I'll tell everyone right now how I play. I look for similarities and differences in game to game. You are playing similarly to how you played when you were a wolf. You are not playing dissimilarly to how you normally do when you are a cit.

quote:

---

Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
I suspected you hard because you are an excellent citizen, and getting into a squabble like that with GLE was not something an excellent citizen would do. As you are far and away the most consistant player here, it stood to reason that you don't make terrible plays like that.

---

Ugh. I'm not going to fight this fight. I don't have to, and you will lose no matter who actually wins.

quote:

---

Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
...That, is why I feel you are a werewolf. Circumstancial? Yep. It's not like we have fingerprints and blood samples to work with. Only things that people say.

---

Both of these things will happen if I die. You've been warned of the repercussions, and you are clearly going to persist on this ill advised path--either having accepted the risks as a cit or believing you can weasel your way out of this as a wolf.

Since WW7 I'm simply too tired of fighting--I'm not going to spend round after round clawing for my life especially when I don't have to. No hard feelings PGB--you may win the crowd, but you are going to cost them.

Those cits who don't feel PGB is making a realistic case, pay very careful attention to who gets on the bandwagon he is trying to start.

That said -- I still suspect Liq - a very strong player who makes an even more dangerous wolf than I but whom PGB seems not to have a mote of interest in, and for that matter who has gone mostly silent since his last post after TOL died.

I definitely suspect PGB for reasons I spelled out in detail last round. Feel free to go back and read them again.

Beyond that I'm not sure. I have some suspicion of XPR, but it seems more likely to be a cit now. I'll continue paying attention and offer observations.

If you can't consider them now, you can consider them fairly once PGB's failure is manifest. At this point I consider arguing with PGB pointless and I am not going to devote more effort to it.

BTW -- if I die, keep tracking the piles, and especially pay attention to the wolf kills. The angel is gone, so at this point the wolves can kill ANYONE. Keep that in mind next round when certain prime wolf targets are still walking around.

Not placing a vote at this time. Want to collect more data first.

quote:

---

Currently Voting : AlmasterGM

Reason : 2 votes with no declaration. Both Resulting in the lynching of a villager.

---

quote:

---

Suspicion List :

• Low

  GottaLoveElves (45%)
  puregoblinboy47 (45%)
  

• Mid

  BernieB (50%)
  fwybwed (50%)
  Jazaray (50%)
  Montague (50%)
  Thanos (50%)
  

• High

  AlmasterGM (55%)
  XplicitR (60%)
  Bugger (60%)
  PlasteredDragon (70%)

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Liq:

Will explain in the Morning.

Currently too tired.

---

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

LOL that's a switch... first PD is high suspicion, then PD is low suspicion and PGB is high suspicion, and now PGB is low and PD is high again? Sweet.

You're full of crap Liq. But maybe you can sail through this game on your rep. I'm tired too.

Voting PlasteredDragon.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
That's not even close to true and you know it, I was neither the progenitor nor the fomentor of the snowball on TOL. I cautioned against it and eventually dropped it altogether--you can try to misrepresent that as my baby, but that's simply not true. And I think most other players know it too.

---

Really?

quote:

---

Originally posted by PD:
For TOL on the other hand, this is a little more surprising. He was a fairly active poster in WW8--not superactive but definitely not silent either. Last game he posted 5'th after the wolf kill and five times in round 1. So far not a peep, which is doubly interesting because Liq's cast a vote for him and TOL hasn't responded. You'd think he might be even more inclined to respond.

---

Tho you did not start a snowball, you did plant a seed.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PD:
Nonsense. I make terrible plays all the time...

---

Agreed, the switched vote really bugs me and what draws me to you. And don't vote for yourself, it makes it harder for people to see the truth behind your suspicions at anytime before the Lynch... OR is that a Double Bluff.

There were guys lying through their teeth last game.

At this point in the game I am lost, not everyone is contributing here. there are still the silents. My gut, as big as it is tells me to look else where other than PD or Bugger, but my stinky heart tells be to stay the course. the length of time the WW's took to announce their choice, over 22 hours funny since it was brought up by me last time about the quickness then PD mentions it about how long its taking this time.

Totally seperate though, is this caught my eye:

quote:

---

Originally posted by XpR:
I don't think you are allowed to talk after you are dead. I'm quite surprised that you were a citizen though.

---

Talking to Revenger after his lynching, Like he is trying to shut him up... and to say how he is surprised that he was a cit... is that like oopsie sry... He was in the Revenger pile. As per Revenger's wish i will be looking at that pile.

this would not have caught my eye if it were reversed... I am surprised about you been a cit, but you should not be allowed to talk.

2 missed votes, Votes with out declaration, no voices in regards to suspicion.

I never did like the idea of voting for silent players, until now, I need info, and there is none to be read.

Can we get a post count. please.

M-O-O-N, that spells WereWolf, haws yes!.

For the sake of efficiency, all players who have been either lynched or killed so far will not be included in pile, regardless of their previous participation.
Round 1 piles:
Pile A (ToL):
BernieB, Bugger, GLE, Liq, Montague, PGB, Thanos
Pile B (rev):
AlmasterGM, XplicitR
Pile C (random):
Fwybwed (bernieb), Jazaray (fwy), PlasteredDragon (thanos)
There are 7 players in pile A, 2 in Pile B, and 3 in pile C.
The kill of O_B, despite his opinions to the contrary, was IMO quite informative. It is clear now the wolves are killing quiet/lower-tier players (no offense intended in that statement, sorry dead cits), and what's more they are trying to keep the R1 Pile A intact. The question then becomes whether this is intended as a deterrent or a bait- do they want us to go looking in there or not? It all depends on where the wolves are. Now, I have somewhat limited experience in this game, but from the ones I've watched and the general reaction of players in-game now, a 7-person pile is unnatural. More on that later.

Round 2:
Pile 1 (rev):
AlmasterGM, Jazaray, Thanos, XplicitR
Pile 2 (XPR):
Bugger, BernieB, PD
Pile 3 (random):
Fwybwed (pd), GLE (none), PGB (none), Liq (bugger), Montague (liq)
To summarize: There are 4 players in pile 1, 3 in pile 2, and 5 in pile 3.

Looking over the lynch/kill record, the following players have thus far been booted from the game:
Masterwolf (kill)
ToL (lynch)
XRKon (kill)
rev (lynch)
OB (kill)
Every one of these players are either newer players or lower-tier players, and none of the kills are from R1 Pile A. This leads me to the conclusion that the wolves are a) strong, and b) trying to keep the ToL pile as big as possible.

The wolves are strong. Why would I think this?
1. The ratios. Right now we have 5 strong players (Liq, GLE, PGB, Jaz, PD), 4 average players (BernieB, Bugger, AGM, Montague), and 3 newer/other players (Thanos, Fwy, XPR) [for the purposes of this, "other" means someone whose reputation I don't know]. That's fairly highly tilted towards strong players, considering the original ratio was set at 5:5:7. The deck is currently stacked quite steeply in favor of active players as well, with 2 hyperactive (Bugger, PD), 5 frequent posters (Fwybwed, Liq, XPR, GLE, PGB), 3 moderately active players (Jaz, AGM, Montague) and 2 near-quiet posters (BernieB, Thanos). Could the wolves be average/new moderate/quiet players playing an incredibly ballsy game? Yes, theoretically, but realistically? No. I don't think so at all. Should the wolves be quiet/newer players, they're almost by themselves in those measurements, being that there are only 4 of them left in this game as of now. Therefore, I believe it is extremely likely that at least 2 if not more of the wolves are good/strong players.

The question is, where can we look to find them? The big enigma is R1A, the ToL pile. It has 7 surviving players, and has been carefully tiptoed around by the wolves. The problem is we can't tell whether that's a bluff or a straightforward deterrent- which is conditional on whether the wolves are in there or not. I personally think it's more and more likely at least 2 wolves are in that pile simply because of size issues. Yes, the wolves could be eliminating R1B and C piles as double-bluffs, but at some point (within the next two kills) they will, assuming they all are in there, run dry of targets and be forced to switch over to the R1A pile- which would be a HUGE giveaway. Furthermore- If the R1A pile truly is as unusual as it seems to be (to finish the point I brought up earlier), then it would logically follow that it's that big because there are wolves in it. Suppose 4 (or even 5) cits plan on voting ToL, which is a high amount considering the cits don't coordinate very well- that's still close enough to the revenger pile for the wolves to dictate the outcome of the round. And they would (in that hypothetical instance) apparently go for the huge intimidating pile rather than two easy to pick apart piles.

Another aspect of the gameplay up until now is the fairly obvious fact that these wolves are strongly taking pile analysis into consideration- which again points to strong players, and again to the R1A pile.

Let's assume the wolves did in fact feature at least two members in the ToL pile- where do they go round 2? Certainly not all-into the biggest R2 pile, that would be too obvious in the late game. Certainly also they would not move as a block team, which would also be too obvious in the late game. You can say they might plan on eliminating the pile-analyzing players between now and then, but with this kind of kill history I'm inclined to disagree. So, it seems most likely they scattered in round 2.

I have to go soon. I'll finish this up later in the day (around 9:30-10:00 AM MOTL time) and at that point try and begin tying down some more concrete directions to take. The biggest thorn in my side right now is the same thing that faced me last game mid-round 3 (besides being away from the game for a weekend ): There's plenty of thoughts and possibilities beginning to crystallize, but it still needs just one or two more concrete points to begin to really get strong leads and direction. As of now there's certainly much fewer possibilities and places to go, but it's still too many to be directly feasible (as in, the number of potential lynches exceeds the bare minimum number of rounds left for the cits).

POSTS:

8 posts since WW Third Kill - OB~A. - round 3 begins:

PlasteredDragon: 2 posts
Bugger: 2 posts
fwybwed: 1 post
Liq: 1 post
puregoblinboy47: 1 post
XplicitR: 1 post
AlmasterGM: 0 posts
BernieB: 0 posts
GottaLoveElves: 0 posts
Jazaray: 0 posts
Montague: 0 posts
Thanos: 0 posts

125 posts since WW first kill - MW - round 1 begins:

PlasteredDragon: 24 posts
Bugger: 30 posts
fwybwed: 7 posts
Liq: 11 posts
puregoblinboy47: 6 posts
XplicitR: 13 posts
AlmasterGM: 4 posts
BernieB: 6 posts
GottaLoveElves: 5 posts
Jazaray: 7 posts
Montague: 8 posts
Thanos: 4 posts

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
Tho you did not start a snowball, you did plant a seed.

---

code:

---

Voting/Suspicion History
==============================
 
From: MW (cit) eaten - round 1 begins
To:   (end of round 1)
 
============================================================
20090403 07:33  MW   001 EATEN     (C)
20090403 08:09  LIQ  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - not stated
20090403 09:52  LIQ  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - XPR not as suspicious
20090403 11:21  JAZ  001 VOTES     fwybwed - Amala's pick
20090403 12:55  BB   001 SUSPECTS  Our_Benefactors - for posting after him in post #049
20090404 04:39  PD   001 SUSPECTS  revenger - silent player
20090404 04:39  PD   002 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - OOC silence
20090404 06:30  LIQ  001 SUSPECTS  PlasteredDragon - post #055
20090404 09:49  BUG  001 SUSPECTS  PlasteredDragon - post #055
20090404 12:51  LIQ  001 SUSPECTS  Bugger - post #058
20090404 12:51  LIQ  002 SUSPECTS  ThoughtsofLepers - post #059
20090404 13:02  BUG  001 SUSPECTS  ThoughtsofLepers - odd behavior
20090404 13:02  BUG  002 SUSPECTS  XRKon - quiet player
20090404 13:14  MON  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - post #059
20090404 14:37  LIQ  001 SUSPECTS  Bugger - post #058 & p#69
20090404 14:37  LIQ  002 SUSPECTS  Montague - post p#64
20090404 14:37  LIQ  003 SUSPECTS  PlasteredDragon - post #055 & #068
20090404 15:41  BUG  001 SUSPECTS  ThoughtsofLepers - appearing helpful with post count
20090404 17:05  BB   001 SUSPECTS  ThoughtsofLepers - post #063 "here I am, a cit again"
20090404 17:07  BUG  001 SUSPECTS  ThoughtsofLepers - defense seems too competent for TOL
20090404 17:54  GLE  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - could be wolves cutting ties with a loose cannon
20090404 20:06  O_B  001 TRUSTS    revenger - wouldn't be silent if a wolf
20090404 20:35  JAZ  001 SUSPECTS  revenger - silent player
20090405 06:31  BUG  001 SUSPECTS  revenger - silent player
20090405 06:31  BUG  002 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - many reasons
20090405 06:31  BUG  003 SUSPECTS  XRKon - silent player
20090405 06:55  O_B  001 SUSPECTS  revenger - extreme hostility
20090405 09:55  PD   001 SUSPECTS  Liq - uncautious post
20090405 09:55  PD   002 SUSPECTS  revenger - silence & outburst
20090405 09:55  PD   003 SUSPECTS  XRKon - silent
20090405 11:03  BB   001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - post #063 "here I am, a cit again"
20090405 14:23  THA  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - not stated
20090405 15:35  PD   001 VOTES     Thanos - silent play
20090405 15:35  PD   002 SUSPECTS  ThoughtsofLepers - OOC early game silence and odd posts
20090405 15:45  XPR  001 VOTES     revenger - not stated
20090405 16:57  TOL  001 VOTES     revenger - not stated
20090405 16:57  TOL  002 TRUSTS    Thanos - silence is in-character
20090405 17:40  REV  001 VOTES     ThoughtsofLepers - post #116 - "screaming do not lynch me"
20090405 17:43  O_B  001 VOTES     revenger - to avoid wasting vote
20090405 18:10  AGM  001 UNDECVOTE revenger
20090405 18:10  FWY  001 UNDECVOTE BernieB
20090405 18:10  PGB  001 UNDECVOTE ThoughtsofLepers
20090405 18:10  TOL  001 LYNCHED   (S)
20090405 19:16  XRK  999 NO VOTE   
============================================================

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
Agreed, the switched vote really bugs me and what draws me to you...

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
...And don't vote for yourself, it makes it harder for people to see the truth behind your suspicions at anytime before the Lynch... OR is that a Double Bluff...

---

I was tired and emotional when I cast that vote last night, but unlike WW6-R3 where I was trying to (a) prove my innocence and (b) force cits to work together, this is completely different. I've suspected Liq since R1... I also called attention to suspicious behavior by PGB in R1 and began to suspect him outright in R2. I've outlined these behaviors and --nobody-- has taken them seriously. Unsurprising really--they're both strong players and since WW7 people have learned that while deception is not in my nature, I am capable of convincingly arguing from a position which is false.

Liq started the snowball on TOL and he was wrong. PGB voted TOL and HE was wrong. Then Liq says I'm suddenly not suspicious (in defiance of his own claims earlier that I would be 50% likely to be a wolf if TOL turned out to be a cit), and he suspects PGB for not declaring? I thought not declaring was supposed to be BAD for the wolves? (And for that matter Liq is doing it again this round with AGM--voting someone for not declaring and for the ****-poor reason that they've voted two cits in a row.) Meanwhile PGB was "in favor of a revenger or a PD lynch"--then when revenger turns out to be innocent his case suddenly turns into "PD KNEW revenger was a cit and defended him to appear more innocent". While that most definitely is a play I would make as a wolf, I have also defended players as a cit--WW7 is not the only other game I have ever played in, and yet PGB is so fixated on that one game... why? PGB forgets to vote and then R3 rolls around.

Now Liq's suspicions have completely flipflopped, and PGB remains fixated on me. These players are either (a) both full of crap, (b) both wolves, or (c) one of each. How can I prove this? By dying--it's really the best option. If Liq and PGB are full of crap, then their misguided fixation on me will end when I end, and perhaps then they can contribute something which will actually help the cits. If Liq and PGB are wolves, perhaps my proven cithood will prove adequate to allow the cits to make the tough choice of having to vote for (or take a hard look at) such marquee players.

So I vote for myself. Not to prove my innocence, not to force the cits to work together--but to prove that I honestly think Liq and PGB are NOT innocent, and that they ARE working together.

Like Liq says, death is not to be feared but embraced. If I'm wrong, oh well I did what I thought was right, but if I'm *right* this is the best way to take away Liq & PGB's credibility--to die.

But I'll keep posting suspicions in the meantime. If at the end of the round there's no significant pile on me I'll probably switch my vote rather than waste it.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
...but my stinky heart tells be to stay the course. the length of time the WW's took to announce their choice, over 22 hours funny since it was brought up by me last time about the quickness then PD mentions it about how long its taking this time...

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
...I never did like the idea of voting for silent players, until now, I need info, and there is none to be read...

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
Can we get a post count. please.

---

code:

---

Living Players:
 
      R1  R2  R3 TOT 
AGM    3   1   0   4
BB     4   2   0   6
BUG   17  11   2  30
FWY    2   4   1   7
GLE    2   3   0   5
JAZ    4   3   1   8
LIQ    9   1   1  11
MON    7   1   0   8
PD    11  11   2  24
PGB    2   3   1   6
THA    3   1   0   4
XPR    6   6   1  13
 
Dead Players:
 
      R1  R2  R3 TOT 
MW     0   0   0   0
O_B    4   1   1   6
REV    3   6   0   9
TOL   12   0   0  12
XRK    1   0   0   1

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Let's assume the wolves did in fact feature at least two members in the ToL pile- where do they go round 2? Certainly not all-into the biggest R2 pile, that would be too obvious in the late game. Certainly also they would not move as a block team, which would also be too obvious in the late game. You can say they might plan on eliminating the pile-analyzing players between now and then, but with this kind of kill history I'm inclined to disagree. So, it seems most likely they scattered in round 2.

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GottaLoveElves --> <NO VOTE>
puregoblinboy47 --> <NO VOTE>
Liq --> Bugger
Montague --> Liq
Thanos --> revenger
BernieB --> XplicitR
Bugger --> XplicitR

I understand what you are saying about that they might not have moved as a block, but it is still possible. And keep in mind that the random pile is only a pile of convenience--two players might both be in the random pile together, but they weren't "voting together".

@PD

Liq voted random... for ToL right off the bat. Nothing suspicious to me. But it was bugger who stated that a ToL lynch would be fine... This is after reading your analysis.

Monty, I see you...

Secondly, I'm not happy with what appears to be a probable PGB/PD showdown that looks likely to hit the scene tomorrow (these things seem to always happen on voting day). I doubt strongly that both of these players are cits, but since their arguments (and all other factors that could possibly be taken into consideration) keep them about equal I haven't a clue who would be the more likely candidate. Both are playing roughly similar to their usual way, both raise good points and bad ones. Chuck's suicidal tendencies are pretty strong indicators of likely cithood, but since the wolves seem to be killing themselves over preserving (or obscuring) piles that's a strong indicator in the other direction.

Which is why I'm not voting for either of them. I've found someone I think very strongly to be a wolf.

Again, I"ll review the conclusions of what these wolves are like through data.
1. They are experienced, or have an experienced leader. This is evidenced by their clear attention to pile analysis, the increasingly unbalanced ratio of good players to weaker players, as well as the kills themselves and how little information they gave away on their own (that is to say even less than the standard wolf kill, which is difficult to interpret anyway).
2. There is most probably 1 or 2 (my guess is 2) wolves in the R1A pile due to its tremendous and unnatural size, as well as the steady depletion of the R1B and R1C piles through both kills and lynches.
3. At the end of the Mafia II game, it was Ryan2754 (I believe), the mafia leader, who noted how difficult the game was to win because all the strong players were left in the game. This game now is following the same trend, which indicates a strong wolf looking for a challenge.
I think everyone knows where I'm going with this, but please hear me out.

I think Liq is a wolf. Quite strongly, in fact. He fits the profile: he has voted R1A, and switched to a random vote in R2. Furthermore, that explains his quote here:

quote:

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Originally posted by Liq:
It's general information any average player should know. Spelling it out doesn't change a thing considering it was the end of Day 2 of Round 1 leaving 1 more day for discussion (and voting).

Spell out the rest of it? sure.

Day 3 is voting day. Expect a wolf or two to come out to mold your votes or establish their alibis.

Anyone who tries to sway votes in another direction is suspicious as is anyone who strongly advocates this vote.

Everything else is play style and post style. Everyone has their niches and habits. Determining how much variance they are going with allows an easy determination of their stance. Its enough to trip up the average level wolf player.

~ * ~

I'm not sure if that's everything you didn't want me to say but I've never been a player who likes to hide things much less side with caution.

You, PD, can be as cautious as you want. I on the other hand will let everyone know what is going through my head so that they can determine where I stand so that when I need to force through my opinion, they know if they can trust me. It's standard Liq play style.

If ToL turns out to be a villager, I'd suspect give PD 50% chance of being wolf. If he ends up being a wolf, then 60%.

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Liq is a strong player. And he likes making challenges for himself. His voting record even lines up with the general direction of the kills: all the players who he has voted for (ToL, Bugger, and AGM) are sub-tier 1 players. And what clinched my vote is this post of his:

quote:

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Originally posted by Liq:

I'm going Standard style Aggro. Got to remind everyone why I am Captain N for 2008 after last game's failed attempt to play with fire.

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Voting: Liq.

quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
I don't think you are allowed to talk after you are dead. I'm quite surprised that you were a citizen though.

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quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
Wow....so now we lost our angel too? This sucks and I'm not sure where to go from here.

What do you guys think we should do now?

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