Author
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Topic: Werewolf 9: The quest for vengeance.
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XplicitR Member
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posted April 14, 2009 05:44 PM
quote: Originally posted by Bugger: To the populace at large: I'm sorry I was so rudderless and unable to really contribute today. I think I need to take a big step back, wipe the board clean, and start again from the foundations, so hopefully I'll have something to make up for today's cluster**** sometime tomorrow. I'm going to reread the thread, begin looking hard at everyone, and throw the current wolf profile model out the window and start from scratch. For now though my vote is sticking with XPR as I still feel something can be learned from him regardless of role.
That's a stupid reason to vote for me, you would have to be a wolf to gain from this. PGB I don't suspect you, well not as much as I suspect the 3 I mentioned.
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Bugger Member
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posted April 14, 2009 05:50 PM
quote: Originally posted by XplicitR: That's a stupid reason to vote for me, you would have to be a wolf to gain from this. PGB I don't suspect you, well not as much as I suspect the 3 I mentioned.
Untrue. I'm voting for you for several reasons: 1)You're moderately suspicious. You have performed a few notable egregious reversals and inconsistencies in your play. 2) None of my other suspicions are strong enough right now to warrant a vote. 3) even if they were, it's important for the cits to become more united in their lynches as the rounds progress because the wolves begin to take up larger and larger portions of the vote. 4) And yes, there is much to learn from your innocence-- If you are a wolf; who was mentoring you? If you are a cit, who set you up? Who is responsible for your death? Where did the wolves place their votes in either case? And to answer your previous post: No, I'm not going to apologize to you for voting for you. __________________ You know, I get it that people are just looking for a way to fill the holes. But they want the holes; they want to live in the holes; and they go nuts when someone else pours dirt in their holes. Climb out of your holes, people! -Hugh Laurie, House Werewolf record: As Werewolf: 1-0 As Cit: 0-1
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XplicitR Member
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posted April 14, 2009 06:01 PM
Bugger you are full of yourself, when I said I want to hear an apology I wasn't talking to you but PD (for saying that I was a scrub who was getting coached by a superior player). I could care less what you think because you are insignificant. Go ahead and vote for me shaggy.
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Bugger Member
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posted April 14, 2009 06:10 PM
quote: Originally posted by XplicitR: Bugger you are full of yourself, when I said I want to hear an apology I wasn't talking to you but PD (for saying that I was a scrub who was getting coached by a superior player). I could care less what you think because you are insignificant. Go ahead and vote for me shaggy.
Speaking of full of yourself... I feel the love.
__________________ You know, I get it that people are just looking for a way to fill the holes. But they want the holes; they want to live in the holes; and they go nuts when someone else pours dirt in their holes. Climb out of your holes, people! -Hugh Laurie, House Werewolf record: As Werewolf: 1-0 As Cit: 0-1
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puregoblinboy47 Member
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posted April 14, 2009 06:25 PM
quote: Bugger you are full of yourself, when I said I want to hear an apology I wasn't talking to you but PD (for saying that I was a scrub who was getting coached by a superior player). I could care less what you think because you are insignificant. Go ahead and vote for me shaggy.
What? You want respect? Earn it.
[Edited 1 times, lastly by puregoblinboy47 on April 14, 2009]
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MeddlingMage Member
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posted April 14, 2009 07:39 PM
Player ~ Their votePGB ~ PD (1) Jazaray ~ XplicitR (1) PlasteredDragon ~ XplicitR (2) BernieB ~ NONE Thanos ~ XplicitR (3) Bugger ~ XplicitR (4) AlmasterGM ~ bugger (1) XplicitR ~ PD (2) GLE ~ AlmasterGM (1) Montague ~ PD (3) XplicitR, another villager, has been wrongfully killed. WW's your name asap please and thanks! ~MM __________________ [Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 9!][My Brute!]I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion and 2007 Captain N award winner, and I approve this siggy!
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GottaLoveElves Member
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posted April 14, 2009 07:44 PM
quote: Originally posted by XplicitR: GLE explain to me how you know I am a citizen? I haven't been lynched yet so I'm confused how you are going on about me and AGM while having me up there as a cit?
Because I don't know you're a citizen. That's since been edited. quote: Originally posted by PlasteredDragon: Whoa, I didn't notice that. That's a good question. Cut and paste error?
Not even. I kind of knew where I was going with my arguments by the time I typed the post, so my opinion kind of bled into the facts. I have to say though, this catch really does solidify my opinion that XPR is a citizen--I'd been second-guessing myself with the brash "you'll be sorry when I'm gone" type talk, but to catch something like that and make a point to question it strikes me as unwolfy. I've cast for AGM; I really have no worry about saving myself at this point, and I don't feel as though my vote is going to make a huge difference anyways. quote: Originally posted by PlasteredDragon: Ya... so many people get eliminated from those R1 piles, and the wolves only get to pick half of them. However the REALLY huge TOL pile has been making it hard--but there is always some interaction between the R1 piles and piles from later rounds to look at too.
Without talking too much about the discussion we're going to have after the game, I still think a strict who's-where analysis R1 can be misleading, but as long as there are new ways to have a look at it (ie, me attempting to consider it chronologically this game), we can keep ahead of the meta. Obviously, there won't be a new way to scan it every game, but if we can keep it fresh it retains its use. quote: Originally posted by puregoblinboy47: Does anyone here suspect me one way or the other?
From my earlier large post: quote: Originally posted by GottaLoveElves: Specifically, I want to examine the ToL pile. First and foremost, I do not think that a smart wolf would vote for the player receiving the most votes without declaring; that is a quick way to get suspected in later rounds. pgb is smart, so I think his nondeclaratory vote for ToL shows innocence.
And, also: quote: Originally posted by puregoblinboy47: What is the likelyhood that GLE, PD, and myself are all cits?
If there are two people off my radar, it's you two. Likelihood, mathematically, is 7/10 * 6/9 * 5/8, or about 30%. So, it's kinda unlikely from the math end, but my judgment says otherwise. EDIT: The above was posted before I realized the kill was up, as it was being typed as votes were tabulated. I've left it there for completeness' sake rather than deleting it. __________________ MOTL's answer to Billy Crystal. He's old enough to know what's right, but young enough not to choose it. He's noble enough to win the world, but weak enough to lose it. "Pray to God? Nahh. I pray to Hitler. He gets things done." Long Story Short... (My Blog) 04/28/02
[Edited 1 times, lastly by GottaLoveElves on April 14, 2009]
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted April 14, 2009 07:50 PM
quote: Originally posted by puregoblinboy47: Does anyone here suspect me one way or the other? What is the likelyhood that GLE, PD, and myself are all cits?
Right now there are 10 living players and 7 are cits.From the perspective of an outside observer, in the order you listed them, GLE's chance of being a cit is 7 out of 10 (70%). My chance would therefore be 6 out of 9 (because GLE took one of the cit slots) (66.7%). Your chance would then be 5 out of 8 (because GLE and PD took 2 of the cit slots) (62.5%). The order isn't really relevant, but the chance that all three of us are cits is the product of these 3 percentages: 70% x 66.7% x 62.5% = (.7 x .667 x .625) = .29167 = 29.17% Chance that 1 of the 3 is a wolf, ~52%, 2 of the 3, ~17%, 3 of the 3, < 1%. So the chances are about 1 in 3 that any three players selected at random are all cits. BUT, that is from the perspective of an outside observer. YOU are not an outside observer and you already KNOW what your status is. If you are a cit, then the chances that GLE and I are both cits (from YOUR perspective) is (6/9) x (5/8) = 41.7%. I'm a cit, so the chance you and GLE are both cits, as far as I am concerned is 41.7% (call it 42%). The chance that one of you is a wolf is about 49.9%, and the chance that both of you are wolves is ~8%. So if you are a cit, its about a 60/40 proposition on GLE and Me. 60% that one of us is a wolf, and 40% that neither of us is. I'm a cit, so my perspective on you and GLE is the same. But that's probabilities alone and a lot more enters into it than just math. Behavior is important to and so forth. FAKE EDIT: I wrote this before MM posted the voting results, so the numbers would need to be refigured for 9 players and 6 cits. __________________ -- PlasteredDragon A.K.A. Chuck Seggelin * Sagewood Studios * My Flickr Photostream * My Blog *
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XplicitR Member
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posted April 14, 2009 08:07 PM
Good luck cits.PS: I don't ask for respect, I ask for courtesy PGB (being rundown as a player because you are "new" to this game isn't very nice) *dead*
[Edited 1 times, lastly by XplicitR on April 14, 2009]
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted April 14, 2009 08:12 PM
quote: Originally posted by XplicitR: Bugger you are full of yourself, when I said I want to hear an apology I wasn't talking to you but PD (for saying that I was a scrub who was getting coached by a superior player). I could care less what you think because you are insignificant. Go ahead and vote for me shaggy.
Oh jeeze, will you relax? I never said you were "a scrub"--that's you talking not me. I said the evidence suggested you were being coached by someone who had been playing longer than you. Clearly that was not actually the case, but that doesn't change what the evidence suggested, and it was not an "insult" to suggest it. So chill.Trying to get caught up with the tracker. I'll post some followup soon--I think we've learned some things from this lynch, and we stand to learn more yet from the wolf kill. EDIT: It's getting late here and I need sleep. I'll post in the AM. __________________ -- PlasteredDragon A.K.A. Chuck Seggelin * Sagewood Studios * My Flickr Photostream * My Blog *
[Edited 1 times, lastly by PlasteredDragon on April 14, 2009]
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puregoblinboy47 Member
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posted April 14, 2009 10:58 PM
This is it. We have one more round to find someone. We have to gang up on someone or we will lose to a bandwagon.If not PD, then who? Remember. All of our votes need to be on the same person or we will lose. Anyone who disagrees with this is wrong and must be a werewolf. I'm posting this now in case I am eaten tonight. Going to a concert, so in case I die, good luck. I reiterate this: If we don't gang up on someone this round with everyone declaring and submitting the same vote, we lose.
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puregoblinboy47 Member
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posted April 14, 2009 11:01 PM
quote: Originally posted by PlasteredDragon: Trying to get caught up with the tracker. I'll post some followup soon--I think we've learned some things from this lynch, and we stand to learn more yet from the wolf kill.
EDIT: It's getting late here and I need sleep. I'll post in the AM. [/B]
A little late to be learning from the wolf kill. This is our last chance at this. If you are trying to set up a discussion to garner a vote over a likely suspect that some may or may not agree with, you are doing it wrong. Unless you are a werewolf indeed.Another reason I urge a PD lynch right now.
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puregoblinboy47 Member
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posted April 14, 2009 11:05 PM
Triple post: I suck at basic counting. BernieB's non vote threw me off and thus I only counted 9 players at the vote. Turns out we have an additional round to have a shot at this.
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Bugger Member
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posted April 15, 2009 04:47 AM
quote: Originally posted by puregoblinboy47: Triple post: I suck at basic counting. BernieB's non vote threw me off and thus I only counted 9 players at the vote. Turns out we have an additional round to have a shot at this.
No... I don't think we do (unless my math is shot to hell as well). BernieB and XPR makes 10, less 1 for the lynch is 9, less another for the kill makes 8. That puts us into round 5, and if we screw up then it's over (8-1=7-1=6, with 3 wolves left 1:2, game over). __________________ You know, I get it that people are just looking for a way to fill the holes. But they want the holes; they want to live in the holes; and they go nuts when someone else pours dirt in their holes. Climb out of your holes, people! -Hugh Laurie, House Werewolf record: As Werewolf: 1-0 As Cit: 0-1
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted April 15, 2009 05:02 AM
quote: Originally posted by puregoblinboy47: A little late to be learning from the wolf kill. This is our last chance at this. If you are trying to set up a discussion to garner a vote over a likely suspect that some may or may not agree with, you are doing it wrong. Unless you are a werewolf indeed.Another reason I urge a PD lynch right now.
First of all, it's only too late to learn after the fifth lynch with no WW caught, so calm down and stop trying to panic the citizenry into agreeing with you.Secondly with no wolves caught these games go five rounds like this: Signup/R0: 17 - 1 wolf kill = 16 R1: 16 - 1 lynch and 1 wolf kill = 14 R2: 14 - 1 lynch and 1 wolf kill = 12 R3: 12 - 1 lynch and 1 wolf kill = 10 R4: 10 - 1 lynch and 1 wolf kill = 8 R5: 8 - 1 lynch and 1 wolf kill = 6 At six players, if all 3 wolves are alive, they represent 50% of the populace, and the game is over. Ergo, if the cits don't find a wolf by R5, the game is over. R5 begins with the next wolf kill so we do indeed have one more lynch to find a wolf. This is not a cause nor a call to panic, just a simple fact. But at this point we also have a better chance of bagging a wolf than at any other time in this game. 3 wolves out of 8 cits? Those are good odds. Switch off your tunnel vision for a minute and look around you PGB, there's a lot of information available to us now and there will be more when the wolves make their next kill. Posting followup in a minute... just want to look at the piles and gather my thoughts. __________________ -- PlasteredDragon A.K.A. Chuck Seggelin * Sagewood Studios * My Flickr Photostream * My Blog *
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted April 15, 2009 06:24 AM
Okay, I'll leave the vote-order analysis to GLE, and focus on the piles. We had a nice spread this last round. With the dead and eaten players removed, here's what the piles look like:R1-Random: JAZ (fwy), PD (tha) + 2 eaten R1-REV: AGM + 1 eaten and 2 lynched R1-TOL: BB, BUG, GLE, MON, PGB, THA + 2 lynched R2-NOVOTE: GLE, PGB R2-RANDOM: MON (liq) + 1 eaten and 1 lynched R2-REV: AGM, JAZ, THA + 1 eaten and 1 lynched R2-XPR: BB, BUG, PD + 1 lynched R3-LIQ: AGM, BUG, GLE, JAZ, MON, THA + 1 lynched R3-PD: PD, PGB + 1 eaten R3-Random: BB (xpr) + 1 lynched R4-PD: MON, PGB + 1 lynched R4-Random: AGB (bug), BB (novote), GLE (agm) R4-XPR: BUG, JAZ, PD, THA Okay, things to keep in mind: 1. When a pile's removals are ALL wolf kills, this is a pile either the wolves didn't think about, or they do not care that the remaining players have been left exposed. That could be because they are daring and think "nobody would choose this player now, if he's a wolf why would he expose himself?" or it could be because they are trying to draw attention to those players "people will say 'why has this player been left alone? maybe he's a wolf!' so let's expose this player to make a target of him". 2. When a pile's removals include lynches, it's likely that some of those removals made the wolves lives harder. They can try to manipulate the cits with varying degrees of success, but in the end, the lynches are largely determined by players who aren't wolves. The crowd may lynch someone the wolves would frankly rather have eaten, or left standing so as to help hide their buddy. The crowd may lynch someone the wolves wanted in the late game as a potential voter for the target of their herding behavior. So a player exposed entirely through "eats" is different than a player exposed through a mix of "eats" and lynches. The piles, graphically: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3648/3444712464_b1d69910ab_o.gif Okay, back to that age-old question, how many wolves in the TOL pile? If none, then Jaz, PD, and AGM are the wolves--problem solved. If ONE, then only one of Jaz, PD, and AGM is a cit--which means from my perspective it's Jaz and AGM. If TWO wolves are in the TOL pile, then one of Jaz, PD, and AGM are a wolf and the other two are cits. What did the wolves choose to do? What I know for a fact is that there is at least 1 wolf in the TOL pile--I know this because I am a cit, and there are only 2 other people who aren't in the TOL pile. No eats in the TOL pile, Jaz and PD are exposed by choice, and AGM is not. Two lynches in the R1-REV pile, one occurring before the eat, and another occurring after. This makes AGM a very obvious target if you have been moving through this game thinking "there must be 1 wolf in the R1-REV pile"--he's all that is left. Now pretend you are a wolf for a minute, your next kill has to reduce these piles further, and you need ONE more cit lynch to end this game in victory. Where are you going to make your kill without giving anything away, or such that it leads the cits where you want them to go? This is obviously not a question I am going to answer, because I'm sure it's driving the wolves batty right now. R2 piles, not as many conclusions to draw here... the spread of players and kills is wide. Monty stands alone in the R2-Random pile, and not by wolf choice. The presence of the novote pile is problematic. The TOL pile split pretty evenly into R2, 2 in NOV, 2 in random, 1 in REV, and 3 in XPR. R3 piles, more interesting. Look at all those players piled on Liq. How many wolves are in there? At least 1, know this for a fact, because I am a cit and there are only 2 other people out of the Liq pile. But how many wolves? If it is only 1 then I know who two of them are--and they know it, if it is 2, then I am left guessing--and they know that too. So, and this is strictly from my perspective--you need to look at these piles and draw your own conclusions. Assuming GLE is right, and the wolves wouldn't have block voted as a trio in R1, then the likeliest scenario is that 2 wolves are in the TOL pile, and 1 is not. Jaz - possible wolf AGM - possible wolf If the same thing holds true in R3 (two in LIQ pile, and 1 outside): PGB - possible wolf BB - possible wolf Notice anything? It's TWO DIFFERENT PLAYERS. If the wolves didn't vote as a pack in R1 or R3, then there must be at least TWO WOLVES among JAZ, AGM, PGB, and BB. Look how much we have learned already! PGB & BB are both TOL voters, so that fits nicely with Jaz & AGM as the other possible wolves. If you consider these possible wolves, what does R2 look like? There's 2 possible wolves in the R2-REV pile, 1 in the novote pile, and 1 in the XPR pile. Monty still stands alone. What about R4? Again, a pretty even spread--1 in the PD pile, 2 in the random pile, 1 in the XPR pile. These four players have done a fair job of spreading themselves out among the piles. Nothing necessarily suspicious about that, but it is consistent with the popular belief that wolves prefer to scatter-vote rather than block-vote. What about me? No not really. I voted with Jaz R1, with Bernie R2, with PGB R3 (at my own peril), and with Jaz again in R4. I'm not showing the same tendency to scatter. Furthermore if you think PGB is a wolf, then believing I am one is insane. PGB builds a case for me and I self vote? That would be ridiculous play for a wolf, and outstandingly ridiculous play for TWO wolves working together. I think my self-vote ought to be an endorsement for me--basically I put my money where my mouth was. I'm not saying it is something a wolf would never do, (especially if he was sure to be lynched anyway), but still, consider it. GLE is convinced that neither PGB nor I is a wolf. If we eliminate PGB from the list of possibles that means there are TWO WOLVES in this list: JAZ, AGM, BB. The only way there are less is if 3 wolves voted together in either R1-TOL or R3-LIQ (or if GLE is wrong about PGB.) PGB's baiting of me would have been very dangerous play if he were a wolf. While it annoyed me no end and made me suspect him earlier, I am trying to keep those suspicions at bay and examine the data critically--I think we have a pretty good chance of bagging a wolf in R5 and another one in R6. This will put the remaining wolves in the annoying (to them) position of having to eliminate two more non-wolves from the list. Which means in R7 we might be able to bag the last baddie--a player I suspect will be found to have been in the R1-TOL pile. I am sure if we spend more time thinking about these piles we can learn more. The wolves have no choice but to give us information every round--and believe me, having been a wolf, watching these piles is positively painful. Right now there are a total of 13 games piles--can you imagine how frustrating it is to weigh potential kills against their effects on THIRTEEN PILES? Especially when you have no idea what the cits are going to do next? Herding becomes a necessity in that environment--and thereby another clue for the cits to watch for. Where are they herding us, and why? For now this is all I will say. I'll let the wolves make their next kill before I draw any more conclusions. Yes having the pile graph will help them--but you all know they have it, and you have it too... the field is level and there are more of us than there are of them. I think we cits can still win this. PGB is in a sense right, that we need to work together, but let's look at ALL the data, and not tunnel in on any one thing. Meaning--these piles are very useful data, but they are not the only data... let's not get ratholed here--GLE would caution against this too. And as much as I love pile analysis, so will I--it's still all probability estimates for the most part. But it's good data just the same. TL;DR: Go back and read the post you lazy bum. The short version is that pile analysis leads me to conclude that there are two wolves in this list: Jazaray, AlmasterGM, puregoblinboy47, and BernieB, and of these PGB is the LEAST likely to be a wolf. __________________ -- PlasteredDragon A.K.A. Chuck Seggelin * Sagewood Studios * My Flickr Photostream * My Blog *
[Edited 2 times, lastly by PlasteredDragon on April 15, 2009]
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Jazaray Moderator
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posted April 15, 2009 07:23 AM
I read all of that PD, and I'm confused. I guess I don't understand piles as well as you and, if you have time after the game, could we go over that? I realize that to you, you're a cit, but to the rest of us, you're also a possible wolf, to be true to the game, shouldn't you include yourself when doing pile analysis? I've pretty much been telling myself all game that you're not a wolf, I'm not sure why, I guess it's because out of everyone who's playing (perhaps even everyone on the site) you are the one person I talk to, every single day. You're one of the people that I feel closest to. I feel really upset when people talk jerky to you (ESPECIALLY when it has to do with your charts and graphs) and I guess I tend to ALWAYS think you're a cit. Using your AWESOME tracker (tracker plug!) I went back and reread PGB's posts about you, and I understand where he is coming from now, and I kinda agree with him. :-\. I actually kinda agreed with him his last few posts, but you kept posting how ridiculous he was being and I guess I just didn't want to be on his end of your wrath. heh. But, it's come down to the wire now and we only have 1 more chance to win this thing, so I've got to get over that and state my opinion. Especially since I think I may be the next ww kill. I think you're a wolf, who better to screw around with the piles, then someone as good at pile analysis as you are? Yeah yeah, you voted for yourself. You also knew there wasn't enough momentum on you at that time to actually lynch you. The pile on Liq was HUGE, almost as big as the TOL pile was and there was only one undeclared that round, so you were safe to vote for yourself and "be a cit" because of it. But, I also agree with PGB that we have to agree on a lynch so what does everyone else think? Thanks, Jazaray __________________ A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick: There was a nice lassie named Jaz Many wished to have what she has, A delicate face, A soft warm embrace, And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom. TheGame sure knows his MOTLers!
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted April 15, 2009 07:38 AM
quote: Originally posted by Jazaray: I read all of that PD, and I'm confused. I guess I don't understand piles as well as you and, if you have time after the game, could we go over that? I realize that to you, you're a cit, but to the rest of us, you're also a possible wolf, to be true to the game, shouldn't you include yourself when doing pile analysis? I've pretty much been telling myself all game that you're not a wolf, I'm not sure why, I guess it's because out of everyone who's playing (perhaps even everyone on the site) you are the one person I talk to, every single day. You're one of the people that I feel closest to. I feel really upset when people talk jerky to you (ESPECIALLY when it has to do with your charts and graphs) and I guess I tend to ALWAYS think you're a cit. Using your AWESOME tracker (tracker plug!) I went back and reread PGB's posts about you, and I understand where he is coming from now, and I kinda agree with him. :-\. I actually kinda agreed with him his last few posts, but you kept posting how ridiculous he was being and I guess I just didn't want to be on his end of your wrath. heh. But, it's come down to the wire now and we only have 1 more chance to win this thing, so I've got to get over that and state my opinion. Especially since I think I may be the next ww kill. I think you're a wolf, who better to screw around with the piles, then someone as good at pile analysis as you are? Yeah yeah, you voted for yourself. You also knew there wasn't enough momentum on you at that time to actually lynch you. The pile on Liq was HUGE, almost as big as the TOL pile was and there was only one undeclared that round, so you were safe to vote for yourself and "be a cit" because of it. But, I also agree with PGB that we have to agree on a lynch so what does everyone else think? Thanks, Jazaray
Let the herding commence! Even if you can't trust me Jaz, the argument still holds true because you know who YOU are.If you are a cit, all you would do is substitute your name with my name and the entire argument would hold together. From your perspective, assuming the wolves didn't vote as a trio R1 and R3, then the 4 possible wolves are PD, AGM, PGB, and BB. Instead you went for the wolves prime target and "who better to mess with these piles, we can't trust this stuff." Regarding my self vote R3? You know as well as I (because you have a tracker) that there was NO compelling or obvious pile on Liq at the time I self voted... code:
Voting/Suspicion History ============================== From: OB (angel) eaten - round 3 begins To: present ============================================================ 20090408 20:21 O_B 001 EATEN (A) 20090408 21:26 PGB 001 SUSPECTS PlasteredDragon - circumstancial case 20090408 23:04 LIQ 001 VOTES AlmasterGM - 2 undec votes for villagers 20090408 23:11 PD 001 VOTES PlasteredDragon - tired 20090409 01:56 FWY 001 SUSPECTS PlasteredDragon - reasons unclear 20090409 01:56 FWY 002 SUSPECTS XplicitR - telling rev to be quiet 20090409 07:02 PD 001 SUSPECTS Liq - suspicious behavior 20090409 07:02 PD 002 SUSPECTS puregoblinboy47 - coordinating with Liq 20090409 09:03 BUG 001 VOTES Liq - play consistent with wolves 20090409 09:18 MON 001 VOTES Liq - reasons stated earlier 20090409 09:55 LIQ 001 VOTES Bugger - agreeable wolf 20090409 09:55 LIQ 002 SUSPECTS PlasteredDragon - manipulative wolf 20090409 09:55 LIQ 003 SUSPECTS XplicitR - High 60% 20090409 12:17 XPR 001 SUSPECTS Liq - not stated 20090409 12:17 XPR 002 SUSPECTS PlasteredDragon - not stated 20090409 23:25 PGB 001 VOTES PlasteredDragon - previously stated reasons 20090410 00:44 FWY 001 VOTES PlasteredDragon - previously stated reasons 20090410 06:27 PD 001 VOTES PlasteredDragon - to have arguments reconsidered 20090410 10:44 AGM 001 VOTES Liq - same reasons as PD 20090410 10:44 AGM 002 SUSPECTS PlasteredDragon - manipulative 20090410 10:46 XPR 001 VOTES Liq - PD 20090410 11:46 JAZ 001 VOTES Liq - innacuracies and oversights appear intentional 20090410 13:25 THA 001 VOTES Liq - not stated 20090410 18:18 BB 001 VOTES XplicitR - R2 behavior has not convinced Bernie 20090411 13:14 GLE 001 UNDECVOTE Liq 20090411 13:14 LIQ 001 LYNCHED (C) ============================================================
There I am with only the third announced suspicion or vote. PGB has announced suspicion of me, and Liq, though voting for AGM has me at the top of his suspect list. I did reaffirm my vote for myself later--and at THAT time there were a couple votes on Liq, but I was sure that there would be 4 to 5 votes on me by lynch-time.<3 you Jaz, but you are wrong here. Simple elimination makes perfect sense--whether you or I is the guilty party. If not all the wolves voted in the R1 TOL pile, then there is no question that at least 1 must be among you, me, and AGM. That's not pile manipulation. My argument stands--all you can logical do is refute the assumptions. If I'm a wolf and you are not, you must logically conclude that there is another wolf among AGM, PGB, or BB. So which one is it? __________________ -- PlasteredDragon A.K.A. Chuck Seggelin * Sagewood Studios * My Flickr Photostream * My Blog *
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Jazaray Moderator
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posted April 15, 2009 09:46 AM
I'm not herding anyone, any more than I was trying to start a wagon on xpr. About the substituting names thing, I wasn't sure if that was true, because you were in different piles than I was in and maybe that changed things a little. Like I said, I don't get the whole pile thing. And yeah, at the time you self voted there wasn't much of a pile on Liq, but A)You know that Liq is the most suspected if he's alive and there's no seer, so you could have assumed he'd be the lynch that round and B)IF your assumption was wrong, you could always have switched your vote and C)You pushed HARD for a Liq lynch.. You can't be surprised that it happened. And I didn't mean that you were doing pile manipulation in that respect, I mean you did it with the eating. You understand what I mean? And I have no idea who the other ww's are. Or who the other one may be in the agm, pgb, bernie choice. It's a tough choice. Thanks, Jazaray __________________ A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick: There was a nice lassie named Jaz Many wished to have what she has, A delicate face, A soft warm embrace, And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom. TheGame sure knows his MOTLers!
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted April 15, 2009 10:12 AM
quote: Originally posted by Jazaray: I'm not herding anyone, any more than I was trying to start a wagon on xpr. About the substituting names thing, I wasn't sure if that was true, because you were in different piles than I was in and maybe that changed things a little. Like I said, I don't get the whole pile thing. And yeah, at the time you self voted there wasn't much of a pile on Liq, but A)You know that Liq is the most suspected if he's alive and there's no seer, so you could have assumed he'd be the lynch that round and B)IF your assumption was wrong, you could always have switched your vote and C)You pushed HARD for a Liq lynch.. You can't be surprised that it happened. And I didn't mean that you were doing pile manipulation in that respect, I mean you did it with the eating. You understand what I mean? And I have no idea who the other ww's are. Or who the other one may be in the agm, pgb, bernie choice. It's a tough choice. Thanks, Jazaray
Well in actuality it would be a *little* different from your perspective, because the people not in the R1-TOL pile are AGM & PD. But the people not in the R3-LIQ pile are PGB, PD, & BB. In this case there is some commonality between those two lists, in which case it is no longer a given that there are TWO wolves in the list, there could just be one--me. If it isn't me, then it must be TWO unless you believe the wolves voted as a pack in R1 or R3. And yes, I'll go over it with you in the aftergame.My perspective is unique because I am the only player who was outside the big pile in both of those rounds. Since I'm a cit it means I can guarantee that list: Jaz, AGM, BB, PGB has two wolves *IF* the wolves didn't pack-vote in R1 or R3. If they pack voted in one of those rounds my list has only 1 wolf in it. If they pack voted BOTH rounds, then my list has NO wolves in it. BUT--*if* they pack voted both rounds then you and AGM can be eliminated from the R3 LIQ pile as suspects, and PGB & BB can be eliminated from the TOL pile as suspects. So that's the big question---did they pack-vote? It's something AGM did last game BUT he's all alone in R1 in this game. I can't think of any other pack votes in recent memory (and I don't have the tracker with me here at work today). So I'm inclined to think GLE might be right. 2 wolves in the TOL pile. Which means 1 not in the TOL pile, which means you and AGM are the suspects from my perspective. Assuming the same holds true in R3, then there is at least one more wolf to be found between PGB and BB (again from my perspective) making them suspects. Since it's two different suspects in each case, it has to be 2 different wolves. Hence, 2 wolves in Jaz, AGM, PGB, and BB. Leaving 1 as yet unidentified in the R1-TOL and R3-LIQ piles. EDIT: Oh and regarding my "knowing" a Liq pile would form--obviously I wasn't going to stop making my case for whom I suspected, I said that back in R3. But if I *was* a wolf? I would have offed Liq in R0N. I wouldn't even have to think twice about it. R0N is a freebie? Strongest player goes. Done. My WW7 game was PLENTY "exciting" and challenging as it was--I don't buy the "exciting game" premise at all. __________________ -- PlasteredDragon A.K.A. Chuck Seggelin * Sagewood Studios * My Flickr Photostream * My Blog *
[Edited 1 times, lastly by PlasteredDragon on April 15, 2009]
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MasterWolf Member
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posted April 15, 2009 11:28 AM
I'm voting Bernek. His silence is very unlike how he normally plays.
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted April 15, 2009 11:34 AM
quote: Originally posted by MasterWolf: I'm voting Bernek. His silence is very unlike how he normally plays.
I totally agree. His post count is zero. You couldn't get zero posts out of Bernek if you froze him in carbonite. I think it is extremely likely that Bernek is one of the wolves. He might even be two of them... I'll be checking the piles (and the tea leaves) to figure out what Bernek is up to.__________________ -- PlasteredDragon A.K.A. Chuck Seggelin * Sagewood Studios * My Flickr Photostream * My Blog *
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Bugger Member
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posted April 15, 2009 11:58 AM
quote: Originally posted by PlasteredDragon: [QUOTE]Originally posted by MasterWolf: I'm voting Bernek. His silence is very unlike how he normally plays.
I totally agree. His post count is zero. You couldn't get zero posts out of Bernek if you froze him in carbonite. I think it is extremely likely that Bernek is one of the wolves. He might even be two of them... I'll be checking the piles (and the tea leaves) to figure out what Bernek is up to.[/QUOTE] What the hell?
__________________ You know, I get it that people are just looking for a way to fill the holes. But they want the holes; they want to live in the holes; and they go nuts when someone else pours dirt in their holes. Climb out of your holes, people! -Hugh Laurie, House Werewolf record: As Werewolf: 1-0 As Cit: 0-1
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XplicitR Member
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posted April 15, 2009 12:21 PM
quote: Originally posted by MasterWolf: I'm voting Bernek. His silence is very unlike how he normally plays.
MasterWolf, I assume by now that you know you are not in the game and that neither is Bernek. Are you looking for another 1 game suspension for posting in a game you are no longer part of? To quote PD: "The dead can talk to the braindead" *back to dead*
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Bugger Member
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posted April 15, 2009 12:24 PM
quote: Originally posted by XplicitR: MasterWolf, I assume by now that you know you are not in the game and that neither is Bernek. Are you looking for another 1 game suspension for posting in a game you are no longer part of?To quote PD: "The dead can talk to the braindead" *back to dead*
What is the matter with you?
__________________ You know, I get it that people are just looking for a way to fill the holes. But they want the holes; they want to live in the holes; and they go nuts when someone else pours dirt in their holes. Climb out of your holes, people! -Hugh Laurie, House Werewolf record: As Werewolf: 1-0 As Cit: 0-1
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