Villagers, your votes are due Tuesday night!

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 3!]

::facepalm:: Wow. Could this be any worse? Okay a couple points...

========

@TOL: For future reference, if you are the seer and you are sure you are going to be killed you MUST reveal yourself -- your desperate plea not to be killed made you look worse, especially the part where you said (paraphrasing) "if I am a wolf there is little harm I can do between R1 and R2 so leave me alive". If you are a wolf we kill you, there is no compelling reason to wait. Kill you now, maybe disrupt wolfy plans, get an extra round out of it. Because you didn't reveal it was a wasted lynch. If you had revealed (even with no names) people would have switched their votes to alternate choices. Yes--you would have died anyway, but the cits would at least not have wasted this lynch.

========

@Liq: Remember that bit about overconfidence, Captain N? I guess your R1 record is now 2 right and 4 wrong.

At this point there is no seer to check you Liq, your last post against me made very little sense, and your claim of being a "straight shooter" who says what is going through his head is laughable in its inaccuracy. There is absolutely no reason why the wolves would leave you alive R0N. "Exciting game" theory my butt. There's plenty of time to make mysterious kills R1 to R5, R0N is a freebie and to leave the best player on the board is very risky.

I think you are alive right now because you are a wolf. I think the wolves are killing weaker, quieter players because the wolves are strong talkative players.

Voting Liq. This vote may change later depending on developments this round.

========

Regarding the TOL pile, what I was GOING to note was that in the absence of people declaring, the obvious pile on TOL was the likeliest place for the wolves to hide. Which would mean a big random pile with 1-2 wolves, and a big TOL pile with 1-2 wolves. But, most players DID declare. Only 3 did not--AGM (rev), fwy (Bernie), PGB (TOL). Therefore there was another obvious pile (the revenger pile).

The R1 piles, by my tally are:

PILE 1 (random): Fwy (BB), Jaz (FWY), PD (Thanos), XRKon (no vote).
PILE 2 (REV): AGM, OB, XPR, TOL
PILE 3 (TOL): BB, BUG, GLE, LIQ, MONTY, PGB, REV, THANOS

TOL was lynched and XRK was eaten, so piles 1 and 2 have been reduced to 3 players each. So far nobody in those piles strikes me as suspicious.

Pile 3 is huge and contains pretty much everybody I had any suspicion of (apart from XRK)--Liq, PGB, Revenger, and Thanos. It also contains all of the strong players except for Jaz. Given Liq blabbed about wolves getting into that pile, do we still think there might be wolves in there? If there is only 1 in there, finding it will be hard, if there are 2 or three, finding one gets easier.

So what do people think? Are there wolves in the TOL pile? If not, the other two piles are small, we could easily wipe one of them completely out and most of the other--with the revenger pile being the likely starting place. It all comes down to what we think the wolves might have done. Any ideas?

Bugger and Monty: Your posts about bugger editing are also confusing me, could you explain those as well?

PD: I really don't think that the ww's all voted in the same pile, and you're right, the TOL pile is pretty big (and with the ww's killing xrk, they've kept it big), so going after either the random pile or the rev pile is probably our best choice. Im just not sure what pile is better to start with, they both have 3 people in it, and while the rev pile may be the better choice, as the ww's killed xrk and he was in the random pile and I don't think that they'd choose someone in the pile they were in, there's always the double bluff senerio, so maybe the random pile WOULD be better. If you guys are right, and the ww's consist of good players, I'm just not sure which way they would go.

I think I'm just going to stick with fwyb for now.

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Day 3 Post 4:

::facepalm:: Wow. Could this be any worse? Okay a couple points...

---

The last time I saw you do this I wasn't playing the game and I thought you were a wolf because of overacting. Turns out that was correct, but that is in no way indicative of you being a wolf this game. However I don't believe that Liq went after ToL knowing he is the seer, as how would he know that before ToL makes a single post?

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
The last time I saw you do this I wasn't playing the game and I thought you were a wolf because of overacting. Turns out that was correct, but that is in no way indicative of you being a wolf this game. However I don't believe that Liq went after ToL knowing he is the seer, as how would he know that before ToL makes a single post?

My suspicions still lie with the emotional revenger who changed his own vote to save his "furry" hide. What do you guys think?

---

Could you please show me where I posted/declared vote for someone? You do not know who I previously voted for. MM does. Perhaps he could show you who my previous vote was for. It was not you nor ThoughtsofLepers.

I will let you on a little known information only I know and MM. My previous vote before I changed it was:

drumroll please:

revenger

Maybe I can still find it in my pm's, I might forward it you. Wait, I do not think I can do that. MM, you think you can confirm who my vote was for prior to changing it to ToL?

So changing votes at the last second makes you a wolf? um, more than 3 of us I think did change votes, I would have to check. Only 3 wolfs playing though.

~Revenger

__________________
Aim: Revenger72 Let's chat now! Magic, FF, Star Wars! Anything!

Need a 3rd party trade? Contact me at this email address.

So do you see anything useful over the shredding of the seer, PD? Let us know. The ToL pile is basic knowledge that WW may lie in sheep’s clothing. When you keep bringing up ToL you basically point a finger in his direction. And yet you did not vote for him? You kept your suspicion of him at arms length. That bothers me as a player, because you are a good player, and other players who are not in your position take your word as gold.

-----------------
*Quote Bugger*
**Incidentally, however, unless a better target presents itself, I'd be fine with a ToL lynch.**
-----------------

This after PD mentioned his playing style, but PD never mentioned that he should be up for a lynch. You did that all yourself. It was only after ToL's inexperienced attempt to defend himself that the other followers put in there 2 cents to the obvious notation of his inexperience.

----------------
****** **** ****. That's what I was afraid of. ToP's last post completely SCREAMED "I am a seer/angel" but I thought it was a double bluff. Agh, I should have switched!**
----------------

Really? You had ToL pegged after PD mentioned his playing style. You were pretty gung ho about his lynching. Is this your way of covering your tracks of making bad decisions again? You had talked down ToL through out the round, but changed your vote to XRKon, then changed it back? This makes me think you had read Liqs post on who would vote for who, and you stating your change in votes is a HUGE mark against you.

--------------
*Quote Liq*
**If you get lynched, chances are that there was a wolf voting for you. Dissect what has been said and consider everything.**
--------------

You sir, if a Villager, are a liability. You are a loud one my friend, as I stated in the previous game… You have no sense in what is suspicious or not in R1, and neither do I, but you are sure adamant about the first name that comes out your mouth, ToL defended himself and at one point made a good argument in which you even thought it was made by someone else. I suggest that you quit been a follower and start thinking on your own.

I myself have my own suspicion. I voted for BernieB and this was not a random vote. The reason I voted for BB was because of these posts.

---------------
*Quote BernieB*
**As is the standing tradition, I am voting to lynch Bernek.
Of course, since he is not currently playing, I will then suspect the next player who posts after me. **
---------------
**Oh, you are always a definite suspect, always being the first to post when there is a kill, don't think that I haven't noticed how you seem to know more about what is going on than most people.
ps - The Hoarders Bank still has 23x Cheatyface and 112x Myr Servitor with your name on them, awaiting your deposit.
----------------

He has his lil convo with MM but nothing really to add. But what this shows me is that he his fattening his post count, why cuz all we see these days are numbers and/or post counts.

----------------
**My suspicions are on ThoughtsofLepers now. His whole "Here I am in this game, as a cit again..." was jusdt a bit too fishy in my opinion.
Of course, I am also closely watching Our_Benefactors, Posting right after me, eh?**
----------------

To me, these are Randonish type posts from when Bernek caught Randon trying to be giddish about his choice to vote for Liq in round1 ww4. Making it sound like he was just kiddin around and such. Trying to make himself seem harmless. He was a WW.

And fate may have presented itself as that very game has been mentioned in this game already... WOW!

quote:

---

Originally posted by Fwybwed:
Really? You had ToL pegged after PD mentioned his playing style. You were pretty gung ho about his lynching. Is this your way of covering your tracks of making bad decisions again? You had talked down ToL through out the round, but changed your vote to XRKon, then changed it back? This makes me think you had read Liqs post on who would vote for who, and you stating your change in votes is a HUGE mark against you.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jazaray:

Bugger and Monty: Your posts about bugger editing are also confusing me, could you explain those as well?

---

I'll do the honors. If you look back to my posts, you'll note that for the entirety of the round I consistently stated I wasn't sure I'd be voting ToL. At the time, that seemed to clash with the rest of my posts, which were almost totally devoted to pointing out how I found ToL suspicious. As I'm sure you can see in retrospect, I thought almost for certain he had a role- I just wasn't sure whether it was a wolf or a seer/angel. I was torn. I sent in my vote yesterday morning for ToL, and in the early evening (IIRC) I switched to XRKon after reading ToL's last post. I figured a wolf would have a smarter wolf advising him on how to defend himself, and therefore if he were he wouldn't have made that last post like he did.
Then, about 10 minutes later, I realized that it could have been double-bluffing, and changed back my vote (MM can verify this, btw. MM, can you do that please?). I tried to make myself stay with whatever decision I had settled on because otherwise MM was going to get a PM every five minutes, and I stuck with the wrong choice. What happened *next* is the kind of stupid part (for me)- I forgot I switched back.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Given Liq blabbed about wolves getting into that pile, do we still think there might be wolves in there? If there is only 1 in there, finding it will be hard, if there are 2 or three, finding one gets easier.

---

Whoa. Am I really the only one who figured it out? (I might still have gotten it wrong, but oh well)

Liq's move, while on the surface kind of rude, actually was quite clever. See, before he made that post, we didn't know where the wolves would have hid- if they were predictable, they would have done what we find standard (one in the ToL pile, 2 spread out elsewhere). Or, they could have gone all in with the ToL pile, or all in with the Revenger pile, etc. The point is though, that we had no way of knowing besides guesswork, which leaves it really up to the wolves. Now, what Liq did, by pointing all that out, is he made it more likely the wolves did *NOT* vote in the ToL pile. What Liq did is narrow their options (assuming someone like GLE or Liq himself aren't wolves and figured it out too). Now we have a much higher likelihood of 2 (or, at best, more) wolves in the revenger and random piles because Liq essentially messed with their heads.

Liq: Am I wrong about this? was this not your intent? Or was it really as simple (and petty) as poking Chuck?

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
...I don't believe that Liq went after ToL knowing he is the seer, as how would he know that before ToL makes a single post?...

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
...My suspicions still lie with the emotional revenger who changed his own vote to save his "furry" hide. What do you guys think?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
--------------
*Quote: PD*
**But if TOL gets lynched that might help us (no offense TOL). I can see some useful analysis coming from that**
--------------

So do you see anything useful over the shredding of the seer, PD? Let us know. The ToL pile is basic knowledge that WW may lie in sheep’s clothing. When you keep bringing up ToL you basically point a finger in his direction. And yet you did not vote for him? You kept your suspicion of him at arms length. That bothers me as a player, because you are a good player, and other players who are not in your position take your word as gold.

---

055. Apr-04 04:39 AM: PlasteredDragon - Not much to go on. Suspect rev's silence. TOL's silence more suspicious, since he has a vote already. Voting TOL for now. - (ref: Liq, rev, TOL)
113. Apr-05 03:35 PM: PlasteredDragon - Voting Thanos, silent player, preventing TOL pile from getting too large. - (ref: Liq, rev, Tnos, TOL, XRK)

Regarding what I was thinking (but didn't want to say out loud) about TOL potentially being lynched, I already covered that in my last post:

128. Apr-05 08:34 PM: PlasteredDragon - TOL should have revealed. Comments on R1 piles. Did the wolves hide in the R1 TOL pile? Voting Liq. - (ref: everybody but MW)

In short - yes that a wolf might decide to hide in the TOL pile was fairly obvious. The point was (at the time) we didn't know who would declare. If nobody declared, then the TOL pile would be the only obvious place for a wolf to hide, which would mean that the rest of the wolves would probably end up in the random pile. Sadly there was an obvious second pile forming on revenger, so a wolf could have hidden there too. The revenger/random piles are pretty small... we could wipe out one entirely and start another with our 4 remaining lynches. Question at this point is where to focus, since Liq talked about wolves hiding in the TOL pile *before* votes were placed.

AFA TOL being the seer? Lucky break for the wolves, that. But without him, we're going to have problems. Those players that people tend to trust less and leave up to the seer (Liq and myself to name two) are likely to become targets of suspicion and may become distractions at this point. This could be a real problem for us--because if there are wolves in the TOL pile, finding them through elimination alone will require a lot of lynches--not many to waste.

That said I still can't help voting for Liq right now given his behavior last round. I may change the vote later as more information becomes available.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
...Whoa. Am I really the only one who figured it out? (I might still have gotten it wrong, but oh well)

Liq's move, while on the surface kind of rude, actually was quite clever. See, before he made that post, we didn't know where the wolves would have hid- if they were predictable, they would have done what we find standard (one in the ToL pile, 2 spread out elsewhere). Or, they could have gone all in with the ToL pile, or all in with the Revenger pile, etc. The point is though, that we had no way of knowing besides guesswork, which leaves it really up to the wolves. Now, what Liq did, by pointing all that out, is he made it more likely the wolves did *NOT* vote in the ToL pile. What Liq did is narrow their options (assuming someone like GLE or Liq himself aren't wolves and figured it out too). Now we have a much higher likelihood of 2 (or, at best, more) wolves in the revenger and random piles because Liq essentially messed with their heads...

---

The other possibility is that the wolves saw the TOL pile as the perfect hiding spot after Liq pointed it out. Because people might be inclined to think that the wolves would go elsewhere given Liq's post.

What in fact happened is exactly what TOL predicted, a pile so huge on him that it will be hard to find wolves hiding in it. It's why I removed myself from the pile. If I had stayed in it, it would be NINE PEOPLE. Yikes!!

So yes, the thought that (1) Liq was making a bluff to constrain the wolves has occurred to me. As has the thought that (2) Liq is a wolf making a double bluff, or that (3) the wolves didn't take the bait from Liq.

If we remove Liq from the equation, on the face of it, the wolves would have a hard time resisting the TOL pile given its size. If instead they shot for standard spreading, then it would be 1 wolf in the TOL pile, and then either 2 in the random pile, or 1 in the random pile and 1 in the rev pile.

If we come at it from the perspective of eliminating piles, getting a feel for which approach they took is crucial given the size of the TOL pile and the number of lynches remaining.

Or we can ignore the piles for now and focus on behavior, etc. The R1 (& R2) piles will resolve to a more useful state by the later rounds.

quote:

---

Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
Well then....XRKon (an ordinary villager)has been neatly removed from the game.

Villagers, your votes are due Tuesday night!

~MM

---

Nobody has commented on the second kill yet. I don't know, it doesn't really narrow down the field of possible wolf goals IMO, but at the very least they did us a dubious favor and eliminated a silent. The problem is that because the field is so open for possibilities, figuratively speaking, it's empty. We still have not even a sliver of something to go with from these wolf kills (which provide little information by default anyhow).

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Day 3 Post 4:

::facepalm:: Wow. Could this be any worse? Okay a couple points...

========

@TOL: For future reference, if you are the seer and you are sure you are going to be killed you MUST reveal yourself -- your desperate plea not to be killed made you look worse, especially the part where you said (paraphrasing) "if I am a wolf there is little harm I can do between R1 and R2 so leave me alive". If you are a wolf we kill you, there is no compelling reason to wait. Kill you now, maybe disrupt wolfy plans, get an extra round out of it. Because you didn't reveal it was a wasted lynch. If you had revealed (even with no names) people would have switched their votes to alternate choices. Yes--you would have died anyway, but the cits would at least not have wasted this lynch.

========

@Liq: Remember that bit about overconfidence, Captain N? I guess your R1 record is now 2 right and 4 wrong.

At this point there is no seer to check you Liq, your last post against me made very little sense, and your claim of being a "straight shooter" who says what is going through his head is laughable in its inaccuracy. There is absolutely no reason why the wolves would leave you alive R0N. "Exciting game" theory my butt. There's plenty of time to make mysterious kills R1 to R5, R0N is a freebie and to leave the best player on the board is very risky.

I think you are alive right now because you are a wolf. I think the wolves are killing weaker, quieter players because the wolves are strong talkative players.

Voting Liq. This vote may change later depending on developments this round.

========

Regarding the TOL pile, what I was GOING to note was that in the absence of people declaring, the obvious pile on TOL was the likeliest place for the wolves to hide. Which would mean a big random pile with 1-2 wolves, and a big TOL pile with 1-2 wolves. But, most players DID declare. Only 3 did not--AGM (rev), fwy (Bernie), PGB (TOL). Therefore there was another obvious pile (the revenger pile).

The R1 piles, by my tally are:

PILE 1 (random): Fwy (BB), Jaz (FWY), PD (Thanos), XRKon (no vote).
PILE 2 (REV): AGM, OB, XPR, TOL
PILE 3 (TOL): BB, BUG, GLE, LIQ, MONTY, PGB, REV, THANOS

TOL was lynched and XRK was eaten, so piles 1 and 2 have been reduced to 3 players each. So far nobody in those piles strikes me as suspicious.

Pile 3 is huge and contains pretty much everybody I had any suspicion of (apart from XRK)--Liq, PGB, Revenger, and Thanos. It also contains all of the strong players except for Jaz. Given Liq blabbed about wolves getting into that pile, do we still think there might be wolves in there? If there is only 1 in there, finding it will be hard, if there are 2 or three, finding one gets easier.

So what do people think? Are there wolves in the TOL pile? If not, the other two piles are small, we could easily wipe one of them completely out and most of the other--with the revenger pile being the likely starting place. It all comes down to what we think the wolves might have done. Any ideas?

---

I'm also not sure why nobody pointed this out either already, but I found the latter half of this post to be suspicious. As soon as the seer is killed somebody comes out swinging for one of the strongest players in the field? I can't help but shake the feeling that I'm seeing too many similarities to WW7 here.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:

---------------
*Quote BernieB*
**As is the standing tradition, I am voting to lynch Bernek.
Of course, since he is not currently playing, I will then suspect the next player who posts after me. **
---------------
**Oh, you are always a definite suspect, always being the first to post when there is a kill, don't think that I haven't noticed how you seem to know more about what is going on than most people.
ps - The Hoarders Bank still has 23x Cheatyface and 112x Myr Servitor with your name on them, awaiting your deposit.
----------------

He has his lil convo with MM but nothing really to add. But what this shows me is that he his fattening his post count, why cuz all we see these days are numbers and/or post counts.

----------------
**My suspicions are on ThoughtsofLepers now. His whole "Here I am in this game, as a cit again..." was jusdt a bit too fishy in my opinion.
Of course, I am also closely watching Our_Benefactors, Posting right after me, eh?**
----------------

To me, these are Randonish type posts from when Bernek caught Randon trying to be giddish about his choice to vote for Liq in round1 ww4. Making it sound like he was just kiddin around and such. Trying to make himself seem harmless. He was a WW.

And fate may have presented itself as that very game has been mentioned in this game already... WOW!

Ill be voting for BernieB again.

---

Can somebody estimate for me how many games Fwy has played with BernieB? Because I was under the impression that Bernie has been behaving out of the ordinary not at all- he always jokes around a bit, he always keeps his posts short, and he always manages to declare his vote before they're due. I'm not really seeing anything here and it could be just me, but... I don't know. This has piqued my interest.

I'm going to need to take some time to regroup today before coming up with anything more than simple observations- I'm in the middle of the school day right now so my brain is kind of busy focusing on that. I'll try and get a more substantive post in later tonight.

quote:

---

Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
Still missing some votes, where are they?

~MM
Edit:
Standings have been updated.
Last rounds M.V.P's were Bugger and revenger.
Sorry for the delay, but great job you two!

---

Wow, really? Thanks!

We all know it was a bluff now. PD was indeed a wolf that game and PD was indeed guilty of the circumstace I accused him of. I see this happening again where he is quick to defend an especially wily revenger. Could his play be consistant with that game and he is bluffing us once again? It definetly does not look good for revenger with the momentum working against him this round. With PD being one of the few that has his back, he will again be a very tough lynch after this round.

quote:

---

Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
Here an interesting scenario. When it looked like a wagon was going to form on me due to my calling out PD using circumstance as my evidence a few games ago, PD jumped to my defense calling me a misguided cit.

We all know it was a bluff now. PD was indeed a wolf that game and PD was indeed guilty of the circumstace I accused him of. I see this happening again where he is quick to defend an especially wily revenger. Could his play be consistant with that game and he is bluffing us once again? It definetly does not look good for revenger with the momentum working against him this round. With PD being one of the few that has his back, he will again be a very tough lynch after this round.

Since I'm not confident that revenger can be saved at this point, I'm in favor of lynching him this round as long as we can get enough agreement that PD is pulling another bluff. However, I would certainly prefer a PD lynch right now overall.

---

OK- might not look good for me, as it appears a lynching of me is inevitable. But I do know, I am not going down without trying to bag a wolf.

I implore every one who is a cit, please take a close look at the ones voting for me. PD explained it well enough of me, emotionallity and defensiveness is NOT OOC for me. Voting for me does 2 things:

Eliminates a cit. Making it harder for the wolves to hide. I think I need to change my style of posting and playstyle for the fact when I was a wolf, I attacked other players and when I am a cit, I am to emotional and defensive, thus getting myself lynched. Imo, I make a better wolf than cit.

Possibly can lead to a wolf or 2. Last game I played, I tried my darnest to block votes (MM called it that, I called it teamwork of the wolves to gang up votes, use the 3 votes we had to lynch a cit). I see this happening to me in this game. If and when I am lynched, please cits, take a good hard look at the ones voting for me.

~Revenger

__________________
Aim: Revenger72 Let's chat now! Magic, FF, Star Wars! Anything!

Need a 3rd party trade? Contact me at this email address.

quote:

---

Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
Here an interesting scenario. When it looked like a wagon was going to form on me due to my calling out PD using circumstance as my evidence a few games ago, PD jumped to my defense calling me a misguided cit.

We all know it was a bluff now. PD was indeed a wolf that game and PD was indeed guilty of the circumstace I accused him of. I see this happening again where he is quick to defend an especially wily revenger. Could his play be consistant with that game and he is bluffing us once again? It definetly does not look good for revenger with the momentum working against him this round. With PD being one of the few that has his back, he will again be a very tough lynch after this round.

Since I'm not confident that revenger can be saved at this point, I'm in favor of lynching him this round as long as we can get enough agreement that PD is pulling another bluff. However, I would certainly prefer a PD lynch right now overall.

---

This time around I had no huge head-to-head last round that resulted in a strong player dying. I had a minor suspicion of TOL but in the end it wasn't strong enough to base a vote on. Revenger is not a PGB-quality player, he's a nice guy and he tries, but nobody is sitting around going "Oh no! The seer died? Thank heavens we still have revenger!!!" If you want to lynch revenger lynch him. My "defense" of him is pretty weak, amounting to little more than "emotionalism is in-character for revenger"--which it is. Also (as of yet) revenger isn't leading any charge to lynch me (he didn't vote for me last round either.) It's just not the same scenario at all.

He just isn't the most suspicious player on my list right now, so obviously if I see something that doesn't look like a good argument I'm going to speak up. I don't want another wasted lynch.

AFA lynching me goes? Well folks have a habit of getting distracted by me, and it almost always leads to lynching parties once the seer is gone. After my successful bid in WW7 to stay alive, I wouldn't at all doubt that people don't feel they can trust me now. All I can tell you is, you'd be making a mistake.

Lynching me is a wasted lynch. There's no way I can prove it with the seer gone, if it has to happen to keep the cits focused, fine. But it's a waste--you will learn nothing, and lose a halfway decent player in the process. Then you'll be down to three lynches left AND there may be repercussions next round. I'd rather see us nail a wolf this round if possible.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
I'm also not sure why nobody pointed this out either already, but I found the latter half of this post to be suspicious. As soon as the seer is killed somebody comes out swinging for one of the strongest players in the field? I can't help but shake the feeling that I'm seeing too many similarities to WW7 here.

---

In WW7, the seer was EATEN. Not lynched by the public. After he died GLE came out for me with an argument that kept changing. He was a cit, I was a wolf.

In WW9, the seer was lynched. After he died I'm accusing one of the people who voted for the seer, based on pecularities in his behavior and innacuracies in his posts which you yourself already noted. Liq's smart but he's able to compute a 50%-60% likelihood that another player is a wolf on ROUND ONE? I don't think so. He's either talking BS to gauge reactions, or he's really that overconfident, or he's a wolf. The latter scenario explains nicely why he didn't die in R0N.

I mean, he posts a warning not to trust numbers put forth by other players, because numbers are shaped by that player's agenda, and then announces I'm 50% likely to be a wolf if TOL is a cit, and 60% likely to be a wolf if TOL is a wolf? *SNORT* Yeah right. The numbers surely do reflect an agenda--Liq's sights are on me and he's created a tautological case for me where you should vote for me no matter which way the TOL vote worked out.

I've been a wolf twice (WW3-2, WW7) and both times the entire wolf team considered Liq a prime target. He didn't get nailed in WW3-2 because the angel was allowed to save R0N. I have a real hard time swallowing that a wolf worth his salt would choose to pass up a free chance to waste Liq. Add to that his behavior and I think there's a pretty good case there. No, not iron-clad, but enough to make me toss a vote his way.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
If literally all you have running through your head is "suspicious" (as your usual posts indicate) then it's a true mystery how you manage to be even a competent player.

---

So you're telling me that in the first round, I have to have concrete thoughts without evidence? Sounds ridiculous to me.

I'm going to keep highlighting post fragments that I think are suspicious. The reason for this is the fact that I don't think I'm going to make it to R4 where I will buckle down and make my move.

Now for who I will be voting for this round.

It has always been a theory of mine that Mafia will join a bandwagon at positions 3 and 4. As such the bandwagon and the "vote declaration" posts.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Liq:
posted April 03, 2009 08:09 AM
Currently Voting:

ThoughtsofLepers

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
posted April 04, 2009 04:39 AM
For TOL on the other hand, this is a little more surprising. He was a fairly active poster in WW8--not superactive but definitely not silent either. Last game he posted 5'th after the wolf kill and five times in round 1. So far not a peep, which is doubly interesting because Liq's cast a vote for him and TOL hasn't responded. You'd think he might be even more inclined to respond.

Yes maybe he is busy, maybe his net access is down--that's understood. But as noted at the end of WW8, I think we need to stop giving silent players a free pass. So right now I am declaring a vote for TOL for being uncharacteristically silent.

This vote will probably change later on, but for now that's where I am. Thus far I haven't noted anything else suspicious.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
posted April 04, 2009 09:49 AM
The 'case' for a ToL vote in and of itself is not unusual or out-of-character in the slightest for PD from my perspective. But when juxtaposed with some of the language he's using, as well as one fairly clear logic gap, it's no longer as innocuous to me. For example:
-Chuck notes it's equally probable that ToL may be a) away for the weekend, or b) having computer difficulties (after all, he frequently mentioned in last game his laptop was giving him trouble), and yet still brings up as a point of consideration the fact that ToL hasn't responded to Liq calling him out. Which, as noted, could just as probably be due to him (hypothetically) being away from the computer- which renders it effectively useless in constructing a solid case.
-Second: This was posted around 24 hours after roles were assigned, and ToL is considered being "uncharactaristically silent". IMO that seems kind of jumping the gun to form any long-term estimations on a single day- a day where only half of it was actually a round.

Incidentally, however, unless a better target presents itself, I'd be fine with a ToL lynch. The most quiet players right now are XRKron, ToL, and revenger. IIRC, XRKron *has* played a game of mafia, no? I'll check that out to see how he plays and modfiy my vote accordingly if I find anything of note. For now though, my vote is for lack of a better option ThoughtsofLepers.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Montague:
I hate that this was already pointed out, so I look like I am jumping onto a bandwagon. That is the chances we have to take I guess.

I always like to wait until somebody posts something that strikes me as odd, and here it is.

It seems like the wolfs always try to post, but not post too much. In their posts they always try to watch what they say and act like they really want to find the werewolfs. Well in most cases they over act a little and we end up with statements like this. I just don't think a normal cit would say something like this.

It might be a little flawed, but this idea worked on Mardak a couple games ago. This is where my vote will be going unless something more suspicious comes along.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by BernieB:
posted April 04, 2009 05:05 PM
My suspicions are on ThoughtsofLepers now. His whole "Here I am in this game, as a cit again..." was jusdt a bit too fishy in my opinion.
Of course, I am also closely watching Our_Benefactors, Posting right after me, eh?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by GottaLoveElves:
posted April 04, 2009 05:54 PM
Honestly, right now I like the ToL wagon, if you couldn't tell from my posting. The only issue I take with it is that so many people pitching at least a vocal affirmation or understanding of it, there's a pretty high probability the wolves have got a say going.
That said, since we're talking WW4, if ToL is a wolf, perhaps the wolves are smart and doing what I failed to do in that game: cut ties with the loose cannon early to minimize the damage.

Amidst all the posting, though, not much else has stuck out to me, so ToL tentatively has my vote.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Thanos:
posted April 05, 2009 02:23 PM
I am voting for TOL.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by revenger:
posted April 05, 2009 05:40 PM
I am actually going on record I am switching my vote (again) and not for retalitory(sp) reasons this time to you. I do not normally decalre my votes, but this time I think I will. Sorry ToL, I thought you were doing pretty decent until this post.

Voting switched to ThoughtofLepers

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
Player ~ Their vote

Our_Benefactors ~ revenger (1)
PGB ~ ThoughtsOfLepers (1)
fwybwed ~ BernieB (1)
Jazaray ~ fwybwed (1)
PlasteredDragon ~ Thanos (1)
BernieB ~ ThoughtsOfLepers (2)
Thanos ~ ThoughtsOfLepers (3)
Bugger ~ ThoughtsOfLepers (4)
Liq ~ ThoughtsOfLepers (5)
revenger ~ ThoughtsOfLepers (6)
AlmasterGM ~ revenger (2)
XRKon ~ NONE
XplicitR ~ revenger (3)
T_o_L ~ revenger (4)
GLE ~ ThoughtsOfLepers (7)
Montague ~ ThoughtsOfLepers (8)

---

Right now, I feel that Monty and/or Bugger maybe wolf. Also I find PGB suspicious because I didn't see any declaration of his to vote ToL.

Right now here's my suspicion list.

quote:

---

Low:

• PD (40%)

  Mid: (50%)
  

• OB
• Fywb
• Jaz
• Bernie
• Thanos
• revenger
• Almaster
• Xplicit

  High:
  

• GLE (55%)
• PGB (55%)
• Monty (60%)
• Bugger (70%)

---

PD : While PD may have been the 2nd to declare and the only one to change his vote, I understand where he is coming from. I feel that voting him would result in a bad situation for the villagers right now.

GLE : He's been oddly silent so that raises my suspicion of him.

PGB : As stated before, his non-declaration vote make me suspicious.

Monty : Again as stated before, my theory (based on mafia experience) says the 3rd or 4th player to join a bandwagon is likely to be wolf so as he fits that portion, I feel that he is suspicious.

Bugger : Here's where my vote is going this round. Why?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
Wow, this was a dickish thing of you to do. Either you're simply doing this to be belligerent, or you're doing it to try and give yourself more of a challenge- either way, still a dickish thing to do.

Look, irrespective of whether or not the wolves are average players or not, you've given them a strict advantage because now they know what NOT to do. We can't confirm now whether they intended to do the things you just enumerated or not before you did so, but now that you have we know they can't.

...Actually, strike the previous paragraph. I still believe it was a dickish move, but a dickishly brilliant one (also, please don't spell out what about it was clever- I know your ego is big enough already, could you save it for the aftergame or at least until night phase?).

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
Whoa. Am I really the only one who figured it out? (I might still have gotten it wrong, but oh well)

Liq's move, while on the surface kind of rude, actually was quite clever. See, before he made that post, we didn't know where the wolves would have hid- if they were predictable, they would have done what we find standard (one in the ToL pile, 2 spread out elsewhere). Or, they could have gone all in with the ToL pile, or all in with the Revenger pile, etc. The point is though, that we had no way of knowing besides guesswork, which leaves it really up to the wolves. Now, what Liq did, by pointing all that out, is he made it more likely the wolves did *NOT* vote in the ToL pile. What Liq did is narrow their options (assuming someone like GLE or Liq himself aren't wolves and figured it out too). Now we have a much higher likelihood of 2 (or, at best, more) wolves in the revenger and random piles because Liq essentially messed with their heads.

Liq: Am I wrong about this? was this not your intent? Or was it really as simple (and petty) as poking Chuck?

---

The reason I posted like that was because the chips were already in the position I wanted them in. If I was going to be eliminated by the wolves in the next round, what my thoughts were would be on record. As for what you were referring to, I had no clue.

Bugger's Big Post

PD's Previous Post

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
Most of what I was going to address got sarnath'd by Chuck .

---

If someone has said what you meant to say, why make the rest of your post a rehash of what the other one said. Short of the quoted post of my "intentions", your post was a near mirror of PD's. Your view of my "intentions" looks like you are hedging your bets. To me, that seems like you're looking to align yourself to a strong player or two and move between them as the situation calls for. That is a standard low level wolf tactic.

As such, I feel that you may be wolf.

__________________
Your Captain N of 2008

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Day 4 Post 2:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
Here an interesting scenario. When it looked like a wagon was going to form on me due to my calling out PD using circumstance as my evidence a few games ago, PD jumped to my defense calling me a misguided cit.

We all know it was a bluff now. PD was indeed a wolf that game and PD was indeed guilty of the circumstace I accused him of. I see this happening again where he is quick to defend an especially wily revenger. Could his play be consistant with that game and he is bluffing us once again? It definetly does not look good for revenger with the momentum working against him this round. With PD being one of the few that has his back, he will again be a very tough lynch after this round.

Since I'm not confident that revenger can be saved at this point, I'm in favor of lynching him this round as long as we can get enough agreement that PD is pulling another bluff. However, I would certainly prefer a PD lynch right now overall.

---

[/QUOTE]

Just for the record, previous game, Liq you were targeted by the wolves as next to kill after PD, but you got yourself lynched, thus, saving us a kill. I think IIRC, you were a target because you are a good player.

Now, if you are being targeting by PD because of the same reason, I am not sure of. But if I was a wolf this game, I would have gotten you round 0. Because you are a good player. Your reputation precedes you.

~Revenger

__________________
Aim: Revenger72 Let's chat now! Magic, FF, Star Wars! Anything!

Need a 3rd party trade? Contact me at this email address.

Liq has PGB and GLE, 2 of the better players on his top suspicion list.

Could this be wolf strategy? Just thought I would point that out. It would be a good strategy. To keep killing the weak players and try to get the better players lynched?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Montague:
The wolves are going after the weaker players.

Liq has PGB and GLE, 2 of the better players on his top suspicion list.

Could this be wolf strategy? Just thought I would point that out. It would be a good strategy. To keep killing the weak players and try to get the better players lynched?

---

Actually this sounds like a very good plan. and I do not think a wolf would post this plan. My suspicion level of you is very low. Now you have to look at the stronger players trying to get the other strong players lynched. That could be any number of them as we have alot of strong players remaining in this game.

~Revenger

__________________
Aim: Revenger72 Let's chat now! Magic, FF, Star Wars! Anything!

Need a 3rd party trade? Contact me at this email address.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Liq:
So you're telling me that in the first round, I have to have concrete thoughts without evidence? Sounds ridiculous to me.

---

Oh please. The line doesn't run immediately from "suspicious" to "I think X is a wolf for reasons Y, Z, and Q". That's fallacious.

quote:

---

I'm going to keep highlighting post fragments that I think are suspicious. The reason for this is the fact that I don't think I'm going to make it to R4 where I will buckle down and make my move.

---

You are totally misinterpreting the issue I took with you in this little spat. The problem I have is not (primarily at least- it's still annoying) that you make posts that amount to "I find these of today's posts to be suspicious", it's that you do that and then make the bs claim that you're offering up everything running through your mind.

quote:

---

Now for who I will be voting for this round.

It has always been a theory of mine that Mafia will join a bandwagon at positions 3 and 4. As such the bandwagon and the "vote declaration" posts.

---

Here it comes...

quote:

---

Right now, I feel that Monty and/or Bugger maybe wolf. Also I find PGB suspicious because I didn't see any declaration of his to vote ToL.

---

Knew it.

quote:

---

Right now here's my suspicion list.

PD : While PD may have been the 2nd to declare and the only one to change his vote, I understand where he is coming from. I feel that voting him would result in a bad situation for the villagers right now.

---

I still suspect him, but I agree with you that he should be kept for the citizen's advantage. I find his data-collecting to be immensely helpful because numbers can be spun but they can't be twisted. As soon as they're posted for all to see they're open for picking apart. Numbers are free of bias.

quote:

---

GLE : He's been oddly silent so that raises my suspicion of him.

---

Disagree. GLE's behaviour seems in-character to me. From what I've seen he often doesn't post until he can build a strong case against someone.

quote:

---

The reason I posted like that was because the chips were already in the position I wanted them in. If I was going to be eliminated by the wolves in the next round, what my thoughts were would be on record.

---

So, the arrogance was unintentional/coincidental?

quote:

---

As for what you were referring to, I had no clue.

---

I'm referring to this:

quote:

---

It's general information any average player should know. Spelling it out doesn't change a thing considering it was the end of Day 2 of Round 1 leaving 1 more day for discussion (and voting).

Spell out the rest of it? sure.

Day 3 is voting day. Expect a wolf or two to come out to mold your votes or establish their alibis.

Anyone who tries to sway votes in another direction is suspicious as is anyone who strongly advocates this vote.

Everything else is play style and post style. Everyone has their niches and habits. Determining how much variance they are going with allows an easy determination of their stance. Its enough to trip up the average level wolf player.

~ * ~

I'm not sure if that's everything you didn't want me to say but I've never been a player who likes to hide things much less side with caution.

---

So what you're saying is, I turned out to be wrong in my guess. I guess my expectations of you were held too high :/.

quote:

---

If someone has said what you meant to say, why make the rest of your post a rehash of what the other one said. Short of the quoted post of my "intentions", your post was a near mirror of PD's.

---

What was I going to do, say "I'll be posting larger later" and not follow up on it? Sorry, I keep promises.

quote:

---

Your view of my "intentions" looks like you are hedging your bets.

---

That's nice. I originally took your post at face value (you were doing it just to **** off Chuck/make it more of a challenge for yourself), thought that someone with such a strong reputation wouldn't be that petty/selfish, and changed my mind.

quote:

---

To me, that seems like you're looking to align yourself to a strong player or two and move between them as the situation calls for. That is a standard low level wolf tactic.

---

An insult wrapped in a generalization stuffed in an accusation, wow. This is what I'm talking about when I say I find Chuck to be a good player to keep around because he uses numbers- that is, numbers are incontrivertible. Obscure "wolf tactics" are something much more objective.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Montague:
The wolves are going after the weaker players.

Liq has PGB and GLE, 2 of the better players on his top suspicion list.

Could this be wolf strategy? Just thought I would point that out. It would be a good strategy. To keep killing the weak players and try to get the better players lynched?

---

It's an idea. Depends on how this Liq/PGB/PD thing goes down.

quote:

---

Originally posted by revenger:
OK- might not look good for me, as it appears a lynching of me is inevitable. But I do know, I am not going down without trying to bag a wolf.

I implore every one who is a cit, please take a close look at the ones voting for me. PD explained it well enough of me, emotionallity and defensiveness is NOT OOC for me. Voting for me does 2 things:

Eliminates a cit. Making it harder for the wolves to hide. I think I need to change my style of posting and playstyle for the fact when I was a wolf, I attacked other players and when I am a cit, I am to emotional and defensive, thus getting myself lynched. Imo, I make a better wolf than cit.

Possibly can lead to a wolf or 2. Last game I played, I tried my darnest to block votes (MM called it that, I called it teamwork of the wolves to gang up votes, use the 3 votes we had to lynch a cit). I see this happening to me in this game. If and when I am lynched, please cits, take a good hard look at the ones voting for me.

~Revenger

---

I see a lot of myself last game R2 in this post, but... I don't know. It seems kind of forced. My eye is (somewhat marginally) on revenger.

I'll try and get a more actionary (rather than reactionary) post up later tonight, but if I don't have any big strokes of insight it might have to wait until tomorrow morning.

EDIT: Cleaned up some bizarre formatting errors. Not sure who's quote this is from, but it wound up right underneath my "tomorrow morning" line in the first edition:

"As such, I feel that you may be wolf.

[/B][/QUOTE]"

I should probably start previewing my posts first :/.

Enough about that, though.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
Whoa. Am I really the only one who figured it out? (I might still have gotten it wrong, but oh well)

Liq's move, while on the surface kind of rude, actually was quite clever. See, before he made that post, we didn't know where the wolves would have hid- if they were predictable, they would have done what we find standard (one in the ToL pile, 2 spread out elsewhere). Or, they could have gone all in with the ToL pile, or all in with the Revenger pile, etc. The point is though, that we had no way of knowing besides guesswork, which leaves it really up to the wolves. Now, what Liq did, by pointing all that out, is he made it more likely the wolves did *NOT* vote in the ToL pile. What Liq did is narrow their options (assuming someone like GLE or Liq himself aren't wolves and figured it out too). Now we have a much higher likelihood of 2 (or, at best, more) wolves in the revenger and random piles because Liq essentially messed with their heads.

---

This was my read of Liq's play as well. Correct or not, for what it's worth, it is a valid strategy, However, I think we're at somewhat of a crossroads with the pile analysis right now: for anyone who remembers by R2 fight with PD in WW7 about the invalidity of the piles when we make a point that we're going to use them, I think that idea is slowly seeping out of the ranks of a highly-meta thought, and tapering down to a conclusion that I'd think any of the players would understand. As a result, I've been waiting for a round where the wolves pile together in R1 to see how they fare: in my mind, this would defeat pile analysis hands down.
With that said, I think that trying to stab at what wolves are in what piles depends entirely on who the wolves are. If Liq were a wolf, picking a heavy strategist as an example, I can see him making the point to distribute the troops in some array where at least two (if not three) vote together. Again, I think anyone can see the advantage of this, and Liq would be a good one to explain it. But, with a wolfpack of three moderate players, I'm not so sure anyone would step up to make such a point, and the conventional (and valid) strategy of spreading out would probably be the most likely.
I don't mean to say that we shouldn't look at piles, but again, I personally don't feel safe drawing any conclusions without knowing the makeup of the wolf team. This is pretty defeatist, because if we can do that, then we don't need the piles to find them.

With that said, since the living pile distribution as of ToL's death was 8-8, I'll go with the strict mathematical analysis that the most likely answer is that 2 wolves were in one pile, and one in the other. Furthermore, since the piles if you don't lump revenger & randoms together were 8-4-4, I'd say the distribution is likely 1-1-1 or 2-0-1.
I'm going on record as saying that there's no way there isn't at least a wolf in the ToL pile, the lynch would just be too easy for one of them to chime into. Especially when some of the latest comers to the wagon were so quiet for the round, even in their declaration:

quote:

---

Originally posted by BernieB:
I have placed my vote for ToL.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Thanos:
I am voting for TOL.

---

I'm pretty sure there's a nice chunk to be learned from one of those bandwagon analysis deals that I did a few games back; I'd like to know who got on the ToL and rev)bandwagons, and when and how. I think that would be much more helpful at present than just looking at the piles. I'm fighting time constraints right now, so I really don't have time, but if someone with the computer tracker would parse through it to see who declared for who in what order, I'd make an effort to try and draw something from that.

Until that time, I'm leaning for one of the two I quoted above based solely on how late and nonchalantly they jumped in.

Also:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Montague:
Could this be wolf strategy? Just thought I would point that out. It would be a good strategy. To keep killing the weak players and try to get the better players lynched?

---

As has been mentioned, see mafia 2. It was employed there and was wildly successful, and they also had an R1 seer death. The second kill is in line with this. Still not sure what to make of it here, as I wasn't in that game.

ok, votes in order, were:

Voter/Vote for.

Liq~Tol
Jaz~fwyb
PD~Tol
Monty~Tol
GLE~Tol
Bugger~Tol
Bernie~Tol
Thanos~Tol
PD~Change to Thanos.
xplicit~rev
Tol~rev
rev~tol
OB~rev

undeclared were

pgb~tol
agm~tol
fwyb~bernie

Is this what you mean GLE?

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

quote:

---

Originally posted by BernieB:
With the Revenger pile, I think that XplicitR is a newbie and is being pretty quiet as if he were afraid to say something that might give him away.
As for the singlets, I do not suspet PD as of yet and although Fwybwed is voting for me, his reasons are silly and I don't think a wolf would do that.
Tenatively, my vote will be for XplicitR.

---

Actually I am pretty vocal and this got me lynched in the last Mafia game as people went after me for bad talking Wooly after she was killed by the Mafia (of course I was a citizen). However, I am fine with you suspecting me, I don't have a special role in this game and if you want to try and waste your vote on me then I can't stop you. You suspected ToL and was actually trying to get people to vote for him. Meanwhile I voted for revenger and was one of the first to declare my suspicions of him. I had to vote earlier than the rest of you since I had a midterm this morning and was not sure if I would be on closer to the vote deadline to view the updates, turns out that I was.

You accuse me of staying silent to keep from slipping up, but why is this your first post after the ToL kill? Why don't you come up with some real reasons to say I am a wolf.

Even still I am suspicious of the following:

1) revenger - OOC from what I have watched of him.

2) PD - WW 7 where he kept playing the overacting citizen who was so depressed for making all the wrong moves is still on my mind and this does look similar to what is going on now.

quote:

---

Originally posted by revenger:
I will let you on a little known information only I know and MM. My previous vote before I changed it was:
drumroll please:
revenger

---

Um, why?

quote:

---

Originally posted by revenger:
OK- might not look good for me, as it appears a lynching of me is inevitable.

---

How many people have declared for you? Two or three ... not even? You're overreacting here.

quote:

---

Originally posted by revenger:
Voting for me does 2 things:
Eliminates a cit. Making it harder for the wolves to hide.

---

I feel as though you are blowing the benefit way out of proportion. Yes, it technically makes the wolves harder to hide, but that is only because there are less overall people in the game. It doesn't give us help with the piles (other than make the TOL stack 7 instead of 8 large) nor does it give any other incredibly insightful info.

quote:

---

Originally posted by revenger:
Possibly can lead to a wolf or 2. Last game I played, I tried my darnest to block votes (MM called it that, I called it teamwork of the wolves to gang up votes, use the 3 votes we had to lynch a cit). I see this happening to me in this game. If and when I am lynched, please cits, take a good hard look at the ones voting for me.

---

Dude, no. We executed that strategy in the last two rounds where the citizen votes barely outnumbered our own. Obviously, block voting was the best option then because a) it was very likely to work and b) there was a low chance of it being exposed in time. During the first couple of rounds (which is where the game is now), we spread ourselves about in various piles (with BoT not voting at all in one case).

quote:

---

Originally posted by BernieB:
The ToL pile is too huge to work with right now.

---

@Jaz: Nice, did you use the suspicion history report to get that? Or just scan your shorthands? One small booboo... agm's undeclared vote was for revenger.

@GLE: I think we are going to continue to disagree when it comes to pile analysis. I can't give away all of what I am thinking right now because I don't want to help the wolves. But we can chat about it after the game if you are interested. Suffice it to say I still think there are some ways to bag wolves here, and they work whether or not the wolves know we are looking at piles.

@Monty: well... if that's the wolf strategy it doesn't fit with the R1 lynch. Your sample size of lynches is 2, and 1 doesn't fit that strategy. You *could* still be right, but we would need a bigger sample to be sure.

@Liq: how is 40% a "low" level of suspicion? There are now 14 living players and 3 wolves. Thus each player has a 21.4% likelihood of being one of the three wolves (3/14). Adding up all the player percentages should yield 300% (because there are 3 wolves)--but if I add up your percentages I get 680%--this is disproportionately high and implies a population of almost 7 wolves. While it's true that any given player either is a wolf or is not, that doesn't mean it's "50/50". In this case if all the players were at equivalent levels of suspicion it would be "21/79". In any case I don't understand why your suspicion of me has dropped--you said if TOL was a cit, I was 50% likely to be a wolf. TOL was a cit, so why am I 40% now?

@XplicitR: you and Liq are at risk of looking like a pair. Your R1 interaction with him felt a little contrived to me, and your largely unjustified trust in him this round feels similarly contrived. AFA me "overacting" goes--you'd be hard pressed to find a WW game I played in where I didn't have emotional moments. I chose to be morose in WW7 because (a) it's a believable posture for me, since I tend to get emotional, and (b) I *wanted* the citizens to feel hopeless. If you think that is what I am doing this time around, well, saying what I just said would completely defeat my purposes, wouldn't it? So maybe it's just me being upset that this is 3 games in a row we've lost the seer in R1, and 5 games in a row we've lost the seer before he's found a wolf. No offense, but you really don't know me well enough to know if that sort of behavior is restricted to my wolfy incarnations, and I assure you it isn't. But if you still feel otherwise--whatever.

@AGM: Yeah, that's my quandary about that pile. The wolves have to eliminate 4 players from the R1 piles over the next 4 rounds. But the cits also get to pick 4 to eliminate. I can see this going a lot of different ways that might work out to help us. That mammoth pile is problematic tho...

Revenger IM'ed me today to ask if I would post the current post counts. Here they are broken out by R1 and R2:

code:

---

      R1  R2 TOT 
AGM    3   1   4
BB     4   1   5
BUG   17   3  20
FWY    2   1   3
GLE    2   1   3
JAZ    4   2   6
LIQ    9   1  10
MW     0   0   0
MON    7   1   8
O_B    4   0   4
PD    11   4  15
PGB    2   1   3
REV    3   4   7
THA    3   0   3
TOL   12   0  12
XPR    6   2   8
XRK    1   0   1

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
...Nobody has commented on the second kill yet. I don't know, it doesn't really narrow down the field of possible wolf goals IMO, but at the very least they did us a dubious favor and eliminated a silent...

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Ever get the feeling you were being herded? Seems to me the wolves were hoping for few distractions R2 so as to again create a huge pile to hide in and thus chose to remove a mildly suspicious player to help ensure that.

The other interesting thing about this kill is how quickly it came.

120. Apr-05 06:10 PM: MeddlingMage - TOL (SEER) Lynched!! - round 1 votes
127. Apr-05 06:53 PM: MeddlingMage - XRKon (cit) eaten - round 2 begins

43 minutes between the lynch and the kill. That's really surprising--certainly the wolves didn't know TOL was the seer and you would figure that they might need to discuss the kill and possibly change up their plans. The immediacy suggests ballsy wolves that have things planned out in advance.