"Says you!"

quote:

---

AFA lynching me goes? Well folks have a habit of getting distracted by me, and it almost always leads to lynching parties once the seer is gone. After my successful bid in WW7 to stay alive, I wouldn't at all doubt that people don't feel they can trust me now. All I can tell you is, you'd be making a mistake.

Lynching me is a wasted lynch. There's no way I can prove it with the seer gone, if it has to happen to keep the cits focused, fine. But it's a waste--you will learn nothing, and lose a halfway decent player in the process. Then you'll be down to three lynches left AND there may be repercussions next round. I'd rather see us nail a wolf this round if possible.

---

Well to be fair, I never give you 100% trust at any point in any game. I mean, this is the very nature of the game itself.

As for the rest of your post, may I remind you and everyone of this. You are certainly an excellent citizen. No doubt in my mind about that. You are also one of the most dangerous wolves. I know you said you were going to play differently, but you jumping to the guilt trip right off the bat is just so unlike you.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
Then, about 10 minutes later, I realized that it could have been double-bluffing, and changed back my vote (MM can verify this, btw. MM, can you do that please?). I tried to make myself stay with whatever decision I had settled on because otherwise MM was going to get a PM every five minutes, and I stuck with the wrong choice. What happened *next* is the kind of stupid part (for me)- I forgot I switched back.

---

Really? thats the extent of you explanation. Believe it or not right? So MM can verify this, and....then what?

quote:

---

Originally posted by PD:
Someone's not reading my posts. Regarding my vote, I DID vote for TOL early in the round because of his OOC early-round silence. He became talkative after that and I began to note other suspicious players. Late in the round, when the size of the TOL pile had risen to 7 votes, it was clear that the pile might get so large it would be difficult to whittle down later--so I deliberately removed myself from it to make the pile smaller and easier to manage. My second vote (for Thanos) moved me into the smaller random pile. This is all documented in posts above. Here's were I announced my initial vote for TOL, and then my change of vote to Thanos (reasons given)

---

That seems convenient. What bugs me is that you mentioned his name and his lack of playing consistant with his last game then the followers all bale on this wagon that is built up on what you have said. Then you bail and vote for a singleton. I understand what you are trying to do and respect that but at the expense of an unknown. To me the seer kill is as much your fault as the those who voted for him.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PD:
The other possibility is that the wolves saw the TOL pile as the perfect hiding spot after Liq pointed it out. Because people might be inclined to think that the wolves would go elsewhere given Liq's post.

---

Could you be so brazen to do this... After all you are a good player. Like I said "Convenient".

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
Nobody has commented on the second kill yet. I don't know, it doesn't really narrow down the field of possible wolf goals IMO, but at the very least they did us a dubious favor and eliminated a silent.

---

And yet you had stated that you were going to vote for him over ToL. but you forgot to switch back, hmm Now he gets shredded 23 minutes later. I find this suspicious.

What I can't understand is that they did do us a favor by shredding a silent player, which might have happened this round, who knows. As lynching silent players was the talk about...XRKon was a nonfactor, imo it was a bad kill and definetly a BAD play for the WW's cuz he was as much a target then anyone else due to his non vote. Its one less villager we have discuss for his lack of play.

Sry BernieB but more suspicion has come to light then my lil speck I had on you. And they were not SILLY!

quote:

---

Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
Lots of people are using the old "I'm a cit, this is a wasted round to lynch me" guilt trip. Usually there is only one or two in the whole game, and only used when a few votes have been declared. PD and XplictR both used it with a minimal amount of heat brought upon them. I think the best response to the guilt trip defense is something that PD said best in response to Bernek using it.

"Says you!"

---

I'm warning you.

I did my time dealing with crackpot theories in WW7 when I had to stay alive as long as possible because I was a WW. Why am I not fighting now? Because, duh, I don't need to stay alive in WW9--I'm just a cit and I have better things to do than fight tooth and nail in a situation where there clearly is no response that will convince you. Like I said, knock yourself out. You'll look pretty foolish once I'm swinging from the noose because you'll have killed an "excellent citizen" to use your own words. That's a nice follow-up to your part in lynching the seer last round.

These things we do have repercussions. Your case is not strong and you are smart enough to know it. If you manage to build a wagon on me, all that will happen is that next round people will be looking hard at you--and if you are a cit, consider: a round wasted lynching the seer, a round wasted lynching an "excellent cit", and then a round wasted fighting about lynching you--and then we are down to two lynches left. If you are a wolf, I assume you will be making the sac play for your buddies R3. I'll gladly go to the gallows if it meant catching a wolf in R3.

quote:

---

Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
Well to be fair, I never give you 100% trust at any point in any game. I mean, this is the very nature of the game itself.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
That seems convenient. What bugs me is that you mentioned his name and his lack of playing consistant with his last game then the followers all bale on this wagon that is built up on what you have said. Then you bail and vote for a singleton. I understand what you are trying to do and respect that but at the expense of an unknown. To me the seer kill is as much your fault as the those who voted for him.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
Could you be so brazen to do this... After all you are a good player. Like I said "Convenient".

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
...What I can't understand is that they did do us a favor by shredding a silent player, which might have happened this round, who knows. As lynching silent players was the talk about...XRKon was a nonfactor, imo it was a bad kill and definetly a BAD play for the WW's cuz he was as much a target then anyone else due to his non vote. Its one less villager we have discuss for his lack of play...

---

================================================

So anyway, right on schedule the pitchforks and torches are coming out for me in R2. I simply don't have the time to devote to keep myself alive--WW7 wore me out in that department and I am not going to go through all that again.

In the meantime, I'm going to point this out now in case I don't get a chance to later. You all know I suspect Liq, and you all know why.

In R1 Liq's early exchange with XPR felt contrived to me:

034. Apr-03 08:09 AM: Liq - Votes TOL. - (ref: TOL)
036. Apr-03 09:21 AM: XplicitR - Re: Liq#34 - why vote TOL? - (ref: Liq)
038. Apr-03 09:52 AM: Liq - Re: XPR#36 - voting TOL because XPR is not more suspicious. - (ref: xplicit)
042. Apr-03 11:11 AM: XplicitR - Does angel participate in R0? What indication does Liq have that TOL is WW? - (ref: Liq)

This interchange feels very fake to me--it appears to be designed to put a division between Liq and XplicitR.

In the course of that round I noted that there was a power player (PGB) whom despite posting twice had essentially contributed nothing for the entire round (two empty posts -- of which one was to compliment Liq.)

Liq announces that if TOL is a cit, I'm 50% likely to be a wolf (which awfully high.)

TOL is revealed as a cit and Liq suddenly changes his tune--now having "low" suspicion of me. Meanwhile no less than 3 players suddenly latch on to WW7 and me (Buger, PGB, and XPR). Sounds like an agreed upon play in progress. PGB having apparently taken the baton from Liq begins pursuing me as quickly as Liq as forgotten me. Meanwhile Liq suspects PGB now for "not declaring"--which is a real bad argument given the push toward nondeclaration of late. This suspicion also feels contrived to create division between Liq and PGB.

I would not at all be surprised if Liq/PGB/XPR are the wolves. That would be 2 in the TOL pile and 1 in the REV pile, and would explain why they made their kill in the random pile. No I'm not certain--you guys know, I'm NEVER certain... I'm too "cautious".

So anyway, if I die, keep an eye on those guys.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
Really? thats the extent of you explanation. Believe it or not right? So MM can verify this, and....then what?

---

Yes, because two paragraphs of type is such a measly explanation. Tell me fwy (because I honestly can't see it for myself) what about switching to XRKon and ToL is so wolfy? And while you're doing that, be sure to actually read my posts and remember that for practically all of R1 I was split between them anyway- you seem to have issues with reading people's posts and I'd hate for you to have formed the wrong conclusion because of that.

quote:

---

And yet you had stated that you were going to vote for him over ToL. but you forgot to switch back, hmm Now he gets shredded 23 minutes later. I find this suspicious

---

Yeah, because I'm honestly stupid enough to admit (in night phase) that I was planning on voting for him and then I killed him anyway. And I'm stupid enough to spend an entire round saying how he's high on my list as well. And furthermore I'm stupid enough to put in a kill that does what I feel to strongly help the cits-- get rid of a useless player for them so they don't have to waste a lynch (when I could have just started a wagon for XRKon instead of ToL early on). God almighty, Fwy, start thinking with your brain instead of whatever organ you're currently substituting.

~

Another possibility of this latest wolf kill is that the wolves are killing out-of-the way players because we're heading in the wrong direction. I don't know whether that holds any merit, but I'll try to look over the thread again today at lunch and place my vote then. As of now, however, my vote is still (frustratingly) undecided.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
So anyway, right on schedule the pitchforks and torches are coming out for me in R2. I simply don't have the time to devote to keep myself alive--WW7 wore me out in that department and I am not going to go through all that again.

In the meantime, I'm going to point this out now in case I don't get a chance to later. You all know I suspect Liq, and you all know why.

In R1 Liq's early exchange with XPR felt contrived to me:

034. Apr-03 08:09 AM: Liq - Votes TOL. - (ref: TOL)
036. Apr-03 09:21 AM: XplicitR - Re: Liq#34 - why vote TOL? - (ref: Liq)
038. Apr-03 09:52 AM: Liq - Re: XPR#36 - voting TOL because XPR is not more suspicious. - (ref: xplicit)
042. Apr-03 11:11 AM: XplicitR - Does angel participate in R0? What indication does Liq have that TOL is WW? - (ref: Liq)

This interchange feels very fake to me--it appears to be designed to put a division between Liq and XplicitR.

In the course of that round I noted that there was a power player (PGB) whom despite posting twice had essentially contributed nothing for the entire round (two empty posts -- of which one was to compliment Liq.)

Liq announces that if TOL is a cit, I'm 50% likely to be a wolf (which awfully high.)

TOL is revealed as a cit and Liq suddenly changes his tune--now having "low" suspicion of me. Meanwhile no less than 3 players suddenly latch on to WW7 and me (Buger, PGB, and XPR). Sounds like an agreed upon play in progress. PGB having apparently taken the baton from Liq begins pursuing me as quickly as Liq as forgotten me. Meanwhile Liq suspects PGB now for "not declaring"--which is a real bad argument given the push toward nondeclaration of late. This suspicion also feels contrived to create division between Liq and PGB.

I would not at all be surprised if Liq/PGB/XPR are the wolves. That would be 2 in the TOL pile and 1 in the REV pile, and would explain why they made their kill in the random pile. No I'm not certain--you guys know, I'm NEVER certain... I'm too "cautious".

So anyway, if I die, keep an eye on those guys.

---

Your insistance that me, PGB and Liq are wolves makes me find you more suspicious. You have a well known history for using your "charm" to start wagons on other players and then move away from them last minute so that you don't look like the bad guy. Regardless, I am going to file this away as a desperation ploy not a wolfy one for now, and I am still going to vote for revenger as I going to stick with my instinct.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
@GLE: I think we are going to continue to disagree when it comes to pile analysis. I can't give away all of what I am thinking right now because I don't want to help the wolves. But we can chat about it after the game if you are interested. Suffice it to say I still think there are some ways to bag wolves here, and they work whether or not the wolves know we are looking at piles.

---

I would be particularly interested. As I've stated, I don't agree with the assessment that it's valid with a meta group of wolves, but we've had this argument ingame before (you've mentioned that fight in WW7 as much as I have), and I don't think it's productive in such a form.

However, what Jaz posted has me much more interested: an analysis of piles with respect to in what order they formed. I can say without a doubt that, when I'm a wolf, I carefully select not only what bandwagon to attach myself to, but when, and I'd expect that a wolf who doesn't can get caught in that fashion pretty easily.

I don't have the time at the moment to go as in-depth as I'd like, I'll do that later. But, in short, with revenger's lateness on the ToL wagon, and his particularly acidic attitude this game, I'm leaning in that direction. We do have something to learn from it, too: on the chance that he's a cit, I'd suspect that we have at least a wolf in the revenger & ToL piles.

I'll step in later to reaffirm this.

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Your insistance that me, PGB and Liq are wolves makes me find you more suspicious.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
You have a well known history for using your "charm" to start wagons on other players and then move away from them last minute so that you don't look like the bad guy.

---

In WW3-2, my first game as a wolf (very inexperienced), I tried to get other people to suspect someone and cast their votes for that person before I cast mine. It made it look like I wasn't the person who started the wagon, since I was the third or fourth to cast a vote. There was one player, and only one, who noted this and spelled it out at length--Liq.

In WW4, WW5, and WW6, I was a cit. I don't think I used the "ploy" you describe above (what point would there be as a cit?) But if I did, the fact I did it as a cit wouldn't really mark me as a wolf now, would it?

Which leaves WW7, where I didn't have to go after ANYBODY because they all came after me, one after another, round after round. All I had to do was defend myself at length. While it's true that I was nonaccusatory with some (PGB most notably) because I needed to look like a victim, none of my WW7 victims (to my recollection) was a "bait and switch" scenario like you described.

But I can see why someone might think otherwise. The question is, who's ideas are you posting right now? I think they might belong a another player who might have a slightly skewed opinion of my game, and who played in WW3-2 or WW7, or both.

Common players from 3.2, 7, and 9:
* BernieB: I can't see BernieB holding such an opinion
* GLE: possibly - but I think he'd be more cognizant of the nuances - I think the opinion is skewed.
* Liq: possibly - Liq is as sensitive to nuance as GLE, but might skew his opinion for other reasons
* PGB: seems most likely to think so given WW7 R2
* Thanos: possibly - he's complained about me swaying opinion in the past.

Players from 3.2 or 7, but not both, that are playing in 9:
* AGM (7): Unlikely - R1 kill
* Bugger (7): possibly - Bugger certainly knows that when I am a wolf I devote a lot of thought to engineering the opinions of others
* Jaz (7): possibly
* MasterWolf (7): I don't think so and he's dead anyway
* Montage (3.2): Hmm. Good possibility. In 3.2 my style was closest to what you described above. Monty might hold that opinion.
* Obie (7): ... Hmmm the one time I went after Obie I went after him strong and didn't waver (and that was as a cit in WW6) - I don't think he would hold the opinion you described.
* revenger (7): possibly - rev has complained about my play a lot, and does not appear to be able to accurately assess it.

So if I was going to put the ones that seem most likely in order of likelihood: PGB, Montague, Liq, Bugger, revenger, Thanos, Jaz

I think you are being coached, XPR. And I think it might be one of those players coaching you, and if I had to pick one most likely it would probably be PGB.

I'm strongly considering switching my vote to XPR at this time.

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Regardless, I am going to file this away as a desperation ploy not a wolfy one for now, and I am still going to vote for revenger as I going to stick with my instinct.

Sending in my vote for Revenger.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Day 5 Post 2:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by XplicitR:
Your insistance that me, PGB and Liq are wolves makes me find you more suspicious.

---

[/QUOTE]

Okay. This seems like an acceptable strategy for this round. I will probably be voting XPlicitR; after looking over the thread I have not found anything else sufficiently suspicious. Also, I missed this quote before:

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

43 minutes between the lynch and the kill. That's really surprising--certainly the wolves didn't know TOL was the seer and you would figure that they might need to discuss the kill and possibly change up their plans. The immediacy suggests ballsy wolves that have things planned out in advance.

---

This to me is a strong indication that the lead wolf is a strong player, possibly accompanied by 2 weak wolves (which would explain the apparent lack of communication- that is, assuming they all were not online at that time talking or something).

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Day 5 Post 2:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by XplicitR:
Your insistance that me, PGB and Liq are wolves makes me find you more suspicious.

---

[/QUOTE]

PD, your response is typical. You also CAPSed the wrong word. It is the first game of WW that I have PLAYED in. However I kept up with WW games 6 to 8, while they were going on as I never got a chance to sign up for them (I was playing Mafia twice as a cit while WW 7 and 8 were going on). While I commend you for your efforts in WW 6, you really have no right to accuse me of posting other people's ideas.

Also I was one of the first to declare for revenger last round and this round so I don't know what your statement about herding (I haven't changed my suspicions, while you who went after ToL and then switched his mind after everyone else declared for him) is supposed to mean.

But don't worry if you are able to form a bandwagon on me and get me lynched and thus revealed as a cit, you can always switch your vote at the last second so you can pretend like you knew I was innocent all along. So instead of strongly considering it like you say, why don't you vote for me (instead of trying to convince everyone else to, so you get to look innocent)?

So heres the question I have to ask...Who's next after me PD? If you can get me lynched are you going to be "oh shoot I knew XPR was a cit which is why I switched my vote, I guess it must be _____ who is a wolf"

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
Yes, because two paragraphs of type is such a measly explanation. Tell me fwy (because I honestly can't see it for myself) what about switching to XRKon and ToL is so wolfy? Yeah, because I'm honestly stupid enough to admit (in night phase) that I was planning on voting for him and then I killed him anyway. And I'm stupid enough to spend an entire round saying how he's high on my list as well. And furthermore I'm stupid enough to put in a kill that does what I feel to strongly help the cits-- get rid of a useless player for them so they don't have to waste a lynch

---

It seems suspicious to me because its like you tried to seperate yourself from the pack OR pile to save yourself after liqs comments on what may happen. Then to admit you were in a bind in deciding who to vote for? I think you saw that you were one of the main influences in the ToL lynch and tried openly state that it was a mistake and you intended to vote XRK...Then XRKon gets shredded 23 minutes ater your last post, enough time to discuss repairs imo.

and Im thinkin with my heart...

quote:

---

Originally posted by PD:
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by XplicitR:
You have a well known history for using your "charm" to start wagons on other players and then move away from them last minute so that you don't look like the bad guy.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Really? Interesting that you, who is playing his FIRST game of WW somehow knows this. It sounds exactly like the sort of observation a strong player would make--PGB or Liq certainly. Maybe Bugger, or GLE... someone who has played with me and has observed my behavior closely. There may be strong players who feel this way but it is such a "well known history" that I've never heard it put into words. I don't think you had time during midterms to go back and read all the WW games I played in.

---

See ToL lynch evidence round 1, Perry Mason, PUHLEEZ, more like Dan Fielding from Night Court.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
Okay. This seems like an acceptable strategy for this round. I will probably be voting XPlicitR; after looking over the thread I have not found anything else sufficiently suspicious.

---

Feedin off of PD's crumbs again...

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger:
This to me is a strong indication that the lead wolf is a strong player, possibly accompanied by 2 weak wolves (which would explain the apparent lack of communication- that is, assuming they all were not online at that time talking or something).

---

Really? 3 WW's, hmmmm.
1 strong, 2 weak, with no communication...this all indicated by "43 minutes between the lynch and the kill. That's really surprising--certainly the wolves didn't know TOL was the seer and you would figure that they might need to discuss the kill and possibly change up their plans. The immediacy suggests ballsy wolves that have things planned out in advance."

ahh but you were online 23 mins before this shred.

Ill place my vote this afternoon...

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

Sending in my vote for Revenger.

---

[/QUOTE]

I think in this case "herd" is another noun for bandwagon.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:

and Im thinkin with my heart...

See ToL lynch evidence round 1, Perry Mason, PUHLEEZ, more like Dan Fielding from Night Court.

---

Thinking with your heart got me into trouble. and I laughed out loud at the Dan Fielding from night court reference.

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Your insistance that me, PGB and Liq are wolves makes me find you more suspicious. You have a well known history for using your "charm" to start wagons on other players and then move away from them last minute so that you don't look like the bad guy. Regardless, I am going to file this away as a desperation ploy not a wolfy one for now, and I am still going to vote for revenger as I going to stick with my instinct.

Sending in my vote for Revenger.

---

I stuck with my instinct last round, and it ended up lynching the wrong person as well as the seer. I now recheck the post looking for subtle hints, as I did that last game.

@AlamasterGM

You are right about the block votes. But I did suggest it in the beginning, but we decided afterwards it was not a good idea for the fact of it could have been to suspicious. Did you forget that?

---

~Revenger

and thank you PD for the post count post.

__________________
Aim: Revenger72 Let's chat now! Magic, FF, Star Wars! Anything!

Need a 3rd party trade? Contact me at this email address.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
It seems suspicious to me because its like you tried to seperate yourself from the pack OR pile to save yourself after liqs comments on what may happen.

---

Here's some posts for you.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger April 4th, 2009 9:49 AM (a quarter of the way down page 3) :

Incidentally, however, unless a better target presents itself, I'd be fine with a ToL lynch. The most quiet players right now are XRKron, ToL, and revenger. IIRC, XRKron *has* played a game of mafia, no? I'll check that out to see how he plays and modfiy my vote accordingly if I find anything of note. For now though, my vote is for lack of a better option ThoughtsofLepers.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bugger April 5th, 2009 6:31 AM (bottom of fourth page):
Voting: ThoughtsofLepers, most likely.
Keeping an eye on: revenger and XRKon (who, in addition to being near-silent this game has a track record of doing so).
I still feel somewhat iffy about my vote for ToL however, and may switch to XRKon.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Liq April 5th, 2009 11:11 AM (about 1/3rd of the way down page 5):
It's general information any average player should know. Spelling it out doesn't change a thing considering it was the end of Day 2 of Round 1 leaving 1 more day for discussion (and voting).

Spell out the rest of it? sure.

Day 3 is voting day. Expect a wolf or two to come out to mold your votes or establish their alibis.

Anyone who tries to sway votes in another direction is suspicious as is anyone who strongly advocates this vote.

Everything else is play style and post style. Everyone has their niches and habits. Determining how much variance they are going with allows an easy determination of their stance. Its enough to trip up the average level wolf player.

---

So in other words Liq's post did NOT influence my indecisiveness over who to vote for. My voting intentions were formed before he posted that, and they didn't change afterward- You'll notice (or maybe you won't) that I didn't change between, say, revenger and ToL. I changed between XRKon and ToL- the people whom I already said I were considering voting for.

MM, CAN YOU VERIFY THAT I SWITCHED MY VOTE BACK AND FORTH NOW PLEASE?

quote:

---

Then to admit you were in a bind in deciding who to vote for?

---

admit? I already made it clear several times I was torn between them.

quote:

---

I think you saw that you were one of the main influences in the ToL lynch and tried openly state that it was a mistake

---

For once you're right. I can't verify now whether or not my wagoneering- if you could stretch enough to call it that- was one of the motivators for the huge pile, but I sure felt frustrated about it. This makes two games in a row now where I've voted to lynch the seer. How do you think that makes me feel? Giving the death sentence to the cit's strongest asset twice? That's why I was so upset about your being a cit last game- I felt I had betrayed everyone's trust and let the cits down, because I thought you were a wolf and I knew that were you to be a cit I would be lynched the next round and then the cits would have been in R4 with no leads at all. I know you have a problem with it, but yeah I do take this game seriously.

quote:

---

and you intended to vote XRK...Then XRKon gets shredded 23 minutes ater your last post, enough time to discuss repairs imo.

---

And switched.
So I kill him afterwards because I openly admitted to switching and switching back? What, you think I decided to kill him as some sort of damage control? How in the hell could killing the guy I changed a vote to, and then back off of, and forgetting I did so, help decrease the suspiciousness of my actions? All that would do is call more attention to it. A wolf doesn't call attention to himself, and certainly doesn't do it when he's already got some attention on himself for making a stupid mistake.

Furthermore, why would I even mention voting for XRKon if I planned on killing him? Again I'll call up the idea of shooting yourself in the foot simply because there's a first-aid kit right next to your leg- even if you bandage the wound fully, the only thing you get for all that invested energy and stress is back to square one. No net gain, best possible scenario. Throw in the fact that I already did something suspicious, and it makes even less sense.

Let's assume for a minute that I am a wolf.
If I planned to kill XRKon before the lynch happened (thus explaining the quick kill time), why would I post intentions of voting for him anyways? Why would I even change my vote to him (even if it weren't permanent)? it makes no sense.
If I *didn't* plan to kill XRKon before the lynch happened (thus explaining my posting intentions to possibly vote for him), why did I kill him afterwards, right when the most suspicious thing on the thread was my stupid (stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid) memory slip over who I finally voted for? It makes no sense.

quote:

---

and Im thinkin with my heart...

---

Sure doesn't smell like your heart.

quote:

---

Feedin off of PD's crumbs again...

---

Oh, that's right. I can't agree with anyone at any point over any thing on this thread. How silly of me *smacks forehead*.

quote:

---

Really? 3 WW's, hmmmm.

---

What, would it have been less strange if I had said 4?

quote:

---

1 strong, 2 weak, with no communication...this all indicated by "43 minutes between the lynch and the kill. That's really surprising--certainly the wolves didn't know TOL was the seer and you would figure that they might need to discuss the kill and possibly change up their plans. The immediacy suggests ballsy wolves that have things planned out in advance."

---

For the love of Christ.
Fwy, in case you haven't been reading my posts (and I strongly suspect you haven't), notice that I float a possible theory as to who the wolves might be after every kill. I did it last game too. The difference between this game and last is that while last game the wolves' goals were much more obvious, this time the possibilities are nearly endless. This is just another idea in a long list of possible theories, and if you'd read to the end of that sentence you'll notice I said that is, assuming they all were not online at that time talking or something.

quote:

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ahh but you were online 23 mins before this shred.

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I'll let Nderdog answer this logically emtpy data point.

"t's always extremely dangerous to try and play the "who was around that could have sent in the kill" game. Posting on other threads during that time indicates that someone was around, but not posting on other threads does NOT mean that someone wasn't around. At least it's not as bad as someone constantly refreshing the list of who's online, but it's still a really bad idea. Players most certainly do not need to be on MOTL to discuss and plan the kill. It's quite possible that they would use some flavor or instant messenger for that. Even if they do use MOTL messages, they aren't necessarily going to post in other threads each time they read or send those messages."

In other words, using who's online as a method of finding werewolves is unimaginably shaky.

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Ill place my vote this afternoon...

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Gee, I wonder who it'll be for.

I am not playing the game.
Asking me for help, ie verify this or that isn't gonna garner a response from me.

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 3!]

quote:

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Originally posted by MeddlingMage:

I am not playing the game.
Asking me for help, ie verify this or that isn't gonna garner a response from me.

~MM

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*sigh*. Nuts. Well, that's your perogative I suppose. I'll have to remember to ask about that after the game then.

As for my vote this round: I vote for XPR (like I stated before.)
Chuck seems to have outlined three wolves in round two, in the early stages of the game. He came out pushing hard for Liq right after the seer kill, and now is roping in both Liq and PGB- two players who suspect him. These are the most concrete reasons why he brings up the top of my suspicion list; I have some free-formed ideas but they are highly conditional and not worth voicing or even considering until the next game-changer (game-changers are what I use to refer to a post, kill, lynch, or other in-game occurrence that noticeably changes the direction of the thread).
Because his numbers and insight are so helpful to the cits, however, I'm not voting for him... yet. But if XPR is a cit, I will almost definitely vote for him next round. After all, Jaz has a tracker- if we need to she can post the data.

I will be away from a computer until around 8:30ish tonight, so should something big happen I'll still be able to change my vote, but if this thread maintains its current course then my vote shall remain with XPR.

I am not a villager. Or a Werewolf. I have no pull in this game. All I am here to do, is try to keep it organized and maintain it's course. Since the beginning of this (WW 1) I have tried really hard to not interfere with any aspect of the game other that rules questions/interpretations.
After the game, I talk, in great lengths about current games with a few players (mainly PD, Jazaray, revenger, GLE and Liq) but not until after the game is over.
I am a little anal about trying to not be a factor in anything, including when roles are assigned. Ask PD, I don't use the alphabetized list so as not to screw with the universe in which the random die roller I use to determine roles. But instead, I make a list as for when players sign up in the order they sign up (call me superstitious) Please take no offense to my refusal to get involved in the everyday game play.

~MM

__________________
[Help me PIMP my Slide!] [Join Us,or DIE!][Refs][Me] [Werewolf 3!]

quote:

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Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
Bugger,
Reason being is this:

I am not a villager. Or a Werewolf. I have no pull in this game. All I am here to do, is try to keep it organized and maintain it's course. Since the beginning of this (WW 1) I have tried really hard to not interfere with any aspect of the game other that rules questions/interpretations.
After the game, I talk, in great lengths about current games with a few players (mainly PD, Jazaray, revenger, GLE and Liq) but not until after the game is over.
I am a little anal about trying to not be a factor in anything, including when roles are assigned. Ask PD, I don't use the alphabetized list so as not to screw with the universe in which the random die roller I use to determine roles. But instead, I make a list as for when players sign up in the order they sign up (call me superstitious) Please take no offense to my refusal to get involved in the everyday game play.

~MM

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It's okay, I'm just a little frustrated about not being able to prove I switched back and forth. And I respect your goal to stay as little involved as possible.

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
and Im thinkin with my heart...

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quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
See ToL lynch evidence round 1, Perry Mason, PUHLEEZ, more like Dan Fielding from Night Court.

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XPR: I explain your R1 behavior by saying you have a well known history of doing such things.

PD: Where is the evidence that this is something I have done often?

FWY: Your R1 behavior. Duhhhhh.

Keep up the good work, boy genius, you'll win that "honorary fourth wolf" award yet.

quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
...However I kept up with WW games 6 to 8, while they were going on as I never got a chance to sign up for them (I was playing Mafia twice as a cit while WW 7 and 8 were going on)...

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quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
...While I commend you for your efforts in WW 6, you really have no right to accuse me of posting other people's ideas...

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You're so into WW that you claim to know the finer vagaries of my behavior, but you can't imagine why Liq would just out of the gate accuse TOL with no reasons? Baseless accusations are the bread and butter of R1--accuse without evidence, gauge the response--you have to ask (like 3 times)? You've been following WW for 3 games now and you somehow missed the fact that there is no R0N angel save--despite the fact that it gets mentioned EVERY GAME?

R1-noobie --> R2-expert implies coaching, it's not a stretch to think so...

quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
...Also I was one of the first to declare for revenger last round and this round so I don't know what your statement about herding (I haven't changed my suspicions, while you who went after ToL and then switched his mind after everyone else declared for him) is supposed to mean....

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It doesn't have anything to do with who voted whom first and who switched votes.

I'm of course not sure that is what the wolves are doing, but having been a wolf, I can assure you that wolves often attempt to herd the cits. You can confirm with Bugger that many of our conversations had to do with who we wanted the cits to be lynching 2 or 3 rounds into the future, shaping the populace (through elimination) to leave a popular suspect and a lot of people who like to vote for that person.

quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
...But don't worry if you are able to form a bandwagon on me and get me lynched and thus revealed as a cit, you can always switch your vote at the last second so you can pretend like you knew I was innocent all along. So instead of strongly considering it like you say, why don't you vote for me (instead of trying to convince everyone else to, so you get to look innocent)?...

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In the meantime, I'm not afraid of you, and I'm not going to change up my game because I'm "afraid that people will think you are right" if I don't. I am still weighing the evidence and my vote currently stands on Liq. I'd say right now there's a very good chance I'll switch it to you--I'll try and let you know when that happens. AFA switching my vote away from you, that will depend on what happens, obviously. If something comes up that makes someone else appear more suspicious to me than you, I'll switch my vote--changing one's mind in the light of new evidence is basic critical thinking. I'm not so in love with my own ideas that I can't change my mind, and I certainly don't care what nefarious purposes you'd like ascribe to me switching my vote. I'm far more interested in the inconsistency in your play style and your own reasoning, to whit:

quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
Your insistance that me, PGB and Liq are wolves makes me find you more suspicious. You have a well known history for using your "charm" to start wagons on other players and then move away from them last minute so that you don't look like the bad guy. Regardless, I am going to file this away as a desperation ploy not a wolfy one for now, and I am still going to vote for revenger as I going to stick with my instinct...

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quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
...So heres the question I have to ask...Who's next after me PD? If you can get me lynched are you going to be "oh shoot I knew XPR was a cit which is why I switched my vote, I guess it must be _____ who is a wolf"...

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I don't have a long term plan, but you can be sure as my suspicions change I will post about it.

quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
...Either way I will be keeping my eye on you, and if I don't make it past the lynch and wolf kill, maybe others will too.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Chuck seems to have outlined three wolves in round two, in the early stages of the game. He came out pushing hard for Liq right after the seer kill, and now is roping in both Liq and PGB- two players who suspect him. [...] Because his numbers and insight are so helpful to the cits, however, I'm not voting for him... yet. But if XPR is a cit, I will almost definitely vote for him next round. After all, Jaz has a tracker- if we need to she can post the data.

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AFA having three wolves--I often have a trio picked out by round 2, but I rarely post about it because it is frequently wrong. In WW8 I had picked out Kood/TOL/Rev by R2 (as a spectator) and I only had one wolf right there. But I figure, screw it, I suspect them, I might as well get it out there.

Hopefully more information will come if people keep discussing. AFA you voting for me goes, do what you have to Bugsie. You'd be making a mistake--but I won't hold it against you. Be wary of forming long term plans though--they don't serve cits as well as they do wolves.

Maybe you did switch back and forth on your votes. As PD did switch his vote, do you think its odd that the both of you decided to ditch your ToL votes before the lynch.

Tho you did suspect ToL and XRK doesnt mean a thing in round 1, you have 2 names to fall back on if your first lynch is wrong "Again" I might add. You can say stuff like "I shoulda!" or "Golly gee whiz"...or even "**** **** ****" to make it sound disheartening.

@PD and Bugger.
I am looking at you 2 with suspicion only through your own actions. You both peg ToL, One of you jumps ship to vote a singleton, the other is indecisive (so he says) Though MM's response may have the answer already...

My R1 suspicion of BB is nuthing compared to what I have seen this round from you 2.

Tho this happened I surprised that bugger has not even called you out on this PD. But he's been brown nosing you all game so far soooo...He was going by you in the R1 Lynch. he said he'd be fine with a ToL lynch... based off your post then you bail... and Bugger doesnt find that suspicious in the least? Even you yourself said that would look suspicious. but Bugger posted after you stating jokingly of course about your dinner date with your wife was more suspicious... but no mention of you switching your vote.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
The 'case' for a ToL vote in and of itself is not unusual or out-of-character in the slightest for PD from my perspective.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
It may be a bad idea in retrospect, but I'm giving PD the benfit of the doubt on this one (mostly). We're not all perfect all the time.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Now, as Chuck said, this is bs.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
I was a wolf with Chuck one game, so I'd like to think I know what I'm talking about.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Chuck is one of those people the seer just can't get enough of. If he isn't killed he's seered and if he isn't seered he's lynched. Thus you can imagine the kind of problems that entails when he's a member of the wolfpack- unless you find the seer quickly, he's essentially a dead man walking.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
I still suspect him, but I agree with you that he should be kept for the citizen's advantage. I find his data-collecting to be immensely helpful because numbers can be spun but they can't be twisted.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Okay. This seems like an acceptable strategy for this round. I will probably be voting XPlicitR; after looking over the thread I have not found anything else sufficiently suspicious.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Chuck seems to have outlined three wolves in round two, in the early stages of the game. He came out pushing hard for Liq right after the seer kill, and now is roping in both Liq and PGB- two players who suspect him. These are the most concrete reasons why he brings up the top of my suspicion list;

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And its only round 2, hahaaa

hmmmm, and the 2 of you quit hurting my feelings, and is there really a honorary fourth wolf award? Cuz I think if and only IF bugger isnt a WW maybe you can give it to him.

@fwy: the honorary 4th wolf is a joke I've made when I was a wolf with the rest of my wolf team, it referred to the cit who was all over the map, accusatory, disruptive, and hatching the most harebrained theories that all he did was create confusion and infighting and basically helped the wolves.

Oh and I gave several reasons for why my suspicion levels of TOL were dropping, you've chosen not to include them here, so whatever. To ignore all that and to call it a bluff is to take the most superficial view possible.

I don't know about Bugger, but I know a vote for me is a wasted vote--but knock yourself out. I can't reason you out of a position you didn't reason yourself in to.

I'm switching my vote (GASP!!!) to XPR. Both for the reasons I already outlined at length above that the paranoids will dismiss as so much subterfuge, and because I suspect there will be a sizeable revenger pile and I want to make sure it doesn't grow too large. The R2 piles aren't as good an indicator as the R1 piles, but they can still trap wolves and they complicate the wolves' plans if they focus on the piles. If rev goes, the TOL pile is reduced by one, not much help there. If XPR goes the rev pile is reduced by one, and that could be very helpful (but only if there is a wolf in that pile :-/ ).

If I get knocked out by a bunch of last minute votes or whatever, good game, and good luck cits. Remember my suspicions--I can't say I'm certain, but at least you'll know I was above board--maybe then the arguments will get a fair shake.

If your reason for lynching me is to help reduce piles by a citizen then you sound more like a wolf than a citizen. However, go ahead and cast your vote for me, if I do go I hope people will see you for the horrible fraud you really are. (Typically, you will then say you were wrong and then move on to your next victim) You aren't the only player in this game although you try to act as if you are the only one who matters or the only one who can make a difference, so please do get off your high horse.

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
@Bugger.

Maybe you did switch back and forth on your votes. As PD did switch his vote, do you think its odd that the both of you decided to ditch your ToL votes before the lynch.

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Hell no, but what do I know. I'm just one of those people who are capable of complex reasoning.

quote:

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Tho you did suspect ToL and XRK doesnt mean a thing in round 1,

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That's your opinion, not fact. Little hint: good arguments are based on facts, not opinions.

quote:

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you have 2 names to fall back on if your first lynch is wrong "Again" I might add.

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ZOMG PLANNING WOLF WOLF WOLF!!11!!11!!1!
I plan ahead because I'm announcing that *should* I be killed that night, people know where I was looking next (whether wrong *or* right). You know, that complex reasoning stuff I mentioned before.

quote:

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You can say stuff like "I shoulda!" or "Golly gee whiz"...or even "**** **** ****" to make it sound disheartening.

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This is an empty statement and has no place in a coherent or even passable argument.

quote:

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@PD and Bugger.
I am looking at you 2 with suspicion only through your own actions. You both peg ToL, One of you jumps ship to vote a singleton, the other is indecisive (so he says) Though MM's response may have the answer already...

My R1 suspicion of BB is nuthing compared to what I have seen this round from you 2.

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Jesus, Fwy, do you ever get over yourself? How much longer do I have to keep playing this ridiculous game of whac-a-mole? Every ramshackle, disjointed, poorly constructed, riddled-with-holes excuse of an argument you put up I shoot down, and then you just come up with another equally ramshackle, disjointed, poorly constructed, and riddled-with-holes one.

quote:

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Tho this happened I surprised that bugger has not even called you out on this PD.

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BECAUSE IT WASN'T SUSPICIOUS. Suspicious for Chuck in my book is poor arguments and overt aggressiveness- but what do I know, I've only spent an entire game watching him play as one from the inside.

quote:

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But he's been brown nosing you all game so far soooo...

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Up yours, Fwy. Really. Honest.

quote:

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He was going by you in the R1 Lynch. he said he'd be fine with a ToL lynch... based off your post then you bail... and Bugger doesnt find that suspicious in the least?

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No, he doesn't, for reasons I'm not even going to bother explaining to you because it's clear that anything I post, no matter how much it proves you wrong, won't mean a thing to you. You're like Bernek; you have absolutely NOTHING but your own faulty convictions to go on, but you've deluded yourself into thinking you have more. At least Bernek has his strong pile analysis as a saving grace.

quote:

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Even you yourself said that would look suspicious. but Bugger posted after you stating jokingly of course about your dinner date with your wife was more suspicious... but no mention of you switching your vote.

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BECAUSE I HADN'T DONE IT YET.

quote:

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And its only round 2, hahaaa

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If I really think it's worthwile, I'll deal with this latest pathetic little excuse in the morning, but I'm having a hard time feeling motivated when I'm certain it will simply be replaced by something else (maybe it'll be how I use parentheses all the time... and only wolves do that!).

quote:

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hmmmm, and the 2 of you quit hurting my feelings,

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Oh come on its only a game hahaaa ha... lol you gettin all hurt cuz of lil things hahaaa...

Where have I heard that before?

quote:

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and is there really a honorary fourth wolf award? Cuz I think if and only IF bugger isnt a WW maybe you can give it to him.

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There's no way I could respond to this without getting a karma smack.

quote:

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Voting PD. Reason, his switched vote. And openly stating that this would be a suspicion, seems like a double bluff. If not a bluff, its just a bad play altogether.[/B]

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All right, I should wrap this up before MM posts the kills because god forbid I spill over into night phase. THAT would be so suspicious.