Author
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Topic: The Post For Magic Stuff #76
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AEther Storm Member
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posted January 04, 2013 03:35 AM
quote: Originally posted by oneofchaos: So I hit a situation tonight in a tournament where my hand consisted of an intuition and an omniscience, he passed. I was dead if he got another attack step. The only way I could win was to show and tell omniscience into play and cast emrakul and eat his board so he couldn't swing for lethal.I had about 6-7 mana. So my options were: Intuition for show and tell (3 left) or emrakul (which is less smart 3 left) This option gives me (3 choose 1)/(43 choose 1) probability or Intuition for brainstorm and cast on my mainphase. This option gives me another probability, which I didn't have time to calculate on the spot. I got weird looks when I intuitioned for bs and cast it main phase. Is there that different of a probability? I assumed there wasn't a big difference. Edit: I think it's (3 choose 1)(3 choose 1)(41 choose 2)/(43 choose 4)
You can't post stuff like this and not give us the outcome! Did you get the Emrakul in play or what? And now for something completely different: I finally signed up for MTGO! I must avoid getting addicted. Anybody want to be my buddy so I can playtest some of my Legacy and Legacy peasant decks on you someday? PM me if so.
__________________ /Thunder in the wind/No rain/Peace mourns its passing/"Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Dr. Seuss
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caquaa Member
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posted January 04, 2013 04:24 AM
quote: Originally posted by wayne: 2-2 for 7 RTR Sealed DEs in a row, I need to catch a lucky break
3-1 in momir... only because my terrible opponent caught a lucky break. Kinda how that format goes tho ;p
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Myy Member
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posted January 04, 2013 01:32 PM
Where can i find a decklist of a current mono red deck in standard?
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Pail42 Member
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posted January 04, 2013 02:03 PM
http://www.mtgtop8.com/archetype?a=12I think rank 1 means it won the event. I noticed that although some of these are called "red deck wins" many of them splash a few black cards.
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JoshSherman Member
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posted January 04, 2013 07:36 PM
quote: Originally posted by stu55: Who has a store that has a WoTC account that can help me out?
You could try Sal. __________________ *My LJ*Letter Bombs!*FB*Logout- MM is a copycat! (So am I)*CKGB
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Heresy19 Member
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posted January 04, 2013 08:04 PM
What's this deck called?Looks awesome! __________________ ''Jesus never existed.... I never had a son.''-Eric Maltais.
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revenger Member
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posted January 04, 2013 08:45 PM
quote: Originally posted by Heresy19: What's this deck called?Looks awesome!
But why 1x snow covered mountain in the mainboard? __________________ Your 2008 & 2010 Siskel & Ebert award winner!32nd in refs on Motl! #1 Ref's for Arizona! I offer 3rd party trading services. Email if interested.
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Heresy19 Member
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posted January 04, 2013 08:47 PM
No clue :P__________________ ''Jesus never existed.... I never had a son.''-Eric Maltais.
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WeedIan Member
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posted January 04, 2013 08:53 PM
It looks like Stoneblade Dragon Stompy.__________________ Member Since 03/28/2001 12000+ posts 1st in posts in Ontario 2nd in posts in Canada 10th in posts on MOTL 5th in Refs in Ontario Pushing to get to top 100 in MOTL Refs
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thror Member
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posted January 04, 2013 08:59 PM
quote: Originally posted by WeedIan: It looks like Stoneblade Dragon Stompy.
That deck is bad. So very bad. __________________ "He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."[16:17] <@BrassMan> what do you need new tech for? [16:18] <@BrassMan> gush is unrestricted [19:01] <nderEvo> you can delete yourself
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WeedIan Member
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posted January 05, 2013 04:29 AM
quote: Originally posted by thror: That deck is bad. So very bad.
It doesn't seem that bad, land bases in Legacy are super greedy right now so a first turn Blood Moon effect seems busted. __________________ Member Since 03/28/2001 12000+ posts 1st in posts in Ontario 2nd in posts in Canada 10th in posts on MOTL 5th in Refs in Ontario Pushing to get to top 100 in MOTL Refs
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Absurd90 Member
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posted January 05, 2013 08:27 AM
quote: Originally posted by revenger: But why 1x snow covered mountain in the mainboard?
You may want to fetch mountain turn 1 and play ancient tomb + magus of the moon turn 2. If you had fetched plateau and it got Wastelanded you would feel bad. quote: Originally posted by thror: That deck is bad. So very bad.
Not really, looks awesome and very good to beat BUG.
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Schwingzilla Member
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posted January 05, 2013 08:36 AM
Is the MOTL price guide down? Blacklotusproject doesn't seem to be updating.
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wayne Member
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posted January 05, 2013 11:26 AM
quote: Originally posted by Schwingzilla: Is the MOTL price guide down? Blacklotusproject doesn't seem to be updating.
Yep, has been down for quite a while
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WeedIan Member
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posted January 05, 2013 07:52 PM
Finally got a foil Jace the Mindsculptor for my cube.__________________ Member Since 03/28/2001 12000+ posts 1st in posts in Ontario 2nd in posts in Canada 10th in posts on MOTL 5th in Refs in Ontario Pushing to get to top 100 in MOTL Refs
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Mr.C Member
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posted January 05, 2013 08:03 PM
quote: Originally posted by WeedIan: Finally got a foil Jace the Mindsculptor for my cube.
:like:
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SageShadows Member
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posted January 05, 2013 08:18 PM
What's the top Legacy decks nowadays? Ever since I started college, my poor Merfolk have been languishing away in a pretty deckbox and I'm curious if it's time for me to sell Merfolk and finish making UW Miracles (those darn Flooded Strands!)
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skizzikmonger Member
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posted January 05, 2013 08:39 PM
quote: Originally posted by SageShadows: What's the top Legacy decks nowadays? Ever since I started college, my poor Merfolk have been languishing away in a pretty deckbox and I'm curious if it's time for me to sell Merfolk and finish making UW Miracles (those darn Flooded Strands!)
3 different BUG decks, UW Miracles, Dredge, RUG Delver, Storm, High Tide, Esper Stone-Blade
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SageShadows Member
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posted January 05, 2013 08:52 PM
quote: Originally posted by skizzikmonger: 3 different BUG decks, UW Miracles, Dredge, RUG Delver, Storm, High Tide, Esper Stone-Blade
Thanks for the quick post! What makes the BUG decks different and should I just sell off most of my Merfolk and put that towards Flooded Strands? (They're the last big money card I really need) It doesn't feel like Merfolk is very competitive.
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skizzikmonger Member
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posted January 05, 2013 09:06 PM
quote: Originally posted by SageShadows: Thanks for the quick post! What makes the BUG decks different and should I just sell off most of my Merfolk and put that towards Flooded Strands? (They're the last big money card I really need) It doesn't feel like Merfolk is very competitive.
The BUG decks are Delver, Shardless, and Midrange. They all run 4 Abrupt Decay, 3-4 Deathrite Shaman, and at least 3 discard spells main. Delver is your basic Delver deck with Goyf and Tombstalker. Shardless uses Shardless Agent to cascade into cheap, efficient spells namely Ancestral Visions. It also light on the counters, if it runs any at all (cascading into a 2cc counter isn't any fun). Midrange runs JTMS, Liliana of the Veil, Confidant, and few counters main. BUG basically comes down to what fits your play style. I prefer the Delver build because of the disruption and Tombstalker (even though he can bite you in the ass from time to time). As for selling your Merfolk deck for Flooded Strands, I say go for it. Strands will help you, and Merfolk isn't very competitive.
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oneofchaos Member
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posted January 05, 2013 10:23 PM
quote: Originally posted by AEther Storm: You can't post stuff like this and not give us the outcome! Did you get the Emrakul in play or what? And now for something completely different: I finally signed up for MTGO! I must avoid getting addicted. Anybody want to be my buddy so I can playtest some of my Legacy and Legacy peasant decks on you someday? PM me if so.
I didn't. Somebody just said I blatantly misplayed. I said I would admit it if they could construct a reasonable argument to show how and they basically shut up for the rest of the night. Intuitively, if you need 2 cards in your deck and you can put one in your hand and randomly try to draw one you have probability of #desired cards/#cards left. Clearly for a very small number, say 4 cards you are 100% likely to find 2 cards out of 4. However you are not guaranteed to get both cards if you place one in hand and randomly draw. Obviously, I couldn't do this logic/calculation while I played, but I extrapolated the logic and figured 43 cards was enough of a low number that getting 2 desired cards out 4 was higher than getting 1 randomly out of only one draw. Also not included in the math for complexity reasons, a ponder/preordain/brainstorm/gitaxian probe increases my chances to win as a draw for turn in both cases. To most people this is probably over thinking a small legacy tournament, but it is the little things in life that I enjoy solving.
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AEther Storm Member
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posted January 06, 2013 03:24 AM
Actually I like it, but I'm too lazy to think it over during a game. Most of the time, recently, I get too anxious and rush a play. That's why I'm switching back to MUC and can do that kind of playing again .thanks 4 the feedback, was hoping you'd find the Emrakul __________________ /Thunder in the wind/No rain/Peace mourns its passing/"Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Dr. Seuss
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Schwingzilla Member
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posted January 06, 2013 07:31 AM
quote: Originally posted by oneofchaos: I didn't. Somebody just said I blatantly misplayed. I said I would admit it if they could construct a reasonable argument to show how and they basically shut up for the rest of the night.Intuitively, if you need 2 cards in your deck and you can put one in your hand and randomly try to draw one you have probability of #desired cards/#cards left. Clearly for a very small number, say 4 cards you are 100% likely to find 2 cards out of 4. However you are not guaranteed to get both cards if you place one in hand and randomly draw. Obviously, I couldn't do this logic/calculation while I played, but I extrapolated the logic and figured 43 cards was enough of a low number that getting 2 desired cards out 4 was higher than getting 1 randomly out of only one draw. Also not included in the math for complexity reasons, a ponder/preordain/brainstorm/gitaxian probe increases my chances to win as a draw for turn in both cases. To most people this is probably over thinking a small legacy tournament, but it is the little things in life that I enjoy solving.
I thought about it a little. The rough numbers I figured were that getting 2 desired cards out of 4 is less than drawing the one off the top. The one off the top is easy, roughly 7.5% (3/40). For Brainstorm, I didn't figure all the interaction effects (changing the chance of drawing the second card when you've already drawn the first one), but it seems the chance is lower. Not by a lot. I was getting mid-single digits, which is higher than my first intuition. I don't think it's blatant. I had a little trouble following exactly how many cards were in your deck, though. Ponders and preordains weren't mentioned, but could change the best play.
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Devonin Member
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posted January 06, 2013 05:56 PM
I'd have probably intuitioned for 1 show and tell and 2 Emrakul.If they gave you the show and tell, the two Emrakuls hit the bin, shuffling your graveyard back in (which while you might think worsens your chances, because you're adding more cards into the library, also has the effect of putting the intuition back in your library, plus any other copies of intuition you might have had in there, any of which you could use to intuition for 3x Emrakul, and still have enough mana left to show and tell the omniscience) If they gave you an Emrakul, you get the Emrakul in hand, shuffle the other Emrakul and the show and tell, and the intuition back into the library, which again, essentially creates more copies of the card you need (Show and tell is back in, so is Intuition which you can use to get Show and Tell, as well as any other Intuitions etc that were in the bin)
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Lord Crovax Member
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posted January 06, 2013 07:22 PM
Local store is advertising the Gatecrash Pre-release as 3 packs of RtR and 3 packs of Gatecrash, no guild pack mention what so ever. 0_o__________________ I shall have the souls of all who defy me. "Lord Crovax"
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