Author
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Topic: MOTL Salvation
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OGB Member
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posted April 14, 2010 11:59 AM
quote: Originally posted by dakrum: Since I’m at work, this is going to be short (and hopefully sweet).There is something that should have happened last night but didn’t and I have a new suspect because of it. I promise that I will explain when I am get home, but I would to hear at least some people answer this first. {SUMMARY: proposes question to all players}
This is the second time this game that dakrum has posted a cryptic message with promises of analysis to come. Why not post it ASAP so people have time to digest the info, especially before a voting round? If you can say that you have a new suspect, you should just be able to say who it is. __________________ Check out OldGhastbot on MTGO to buy and sell cards at ultracompetitive prices!
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dakrum Member
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posted April 14, 2010 12:55 PM
quote: Originally posted by OGB: This is the second time this game that dakrum has posted a cryptic message with promises of analysis to come. Why not post it ASAP so people have time to digest the info, especially before a voting round? If you can say that you have a new suspect, you should just be able to say who it is.
For this case, because I'm at work. I will tell you that the suspect is ryan2754, but I don't have time to say anything more than that - I will edit this message somewhere between 2 and 4 PM MOTL time (5-7PM EST). EDIT: Here is my reasoning.
I don't know why ryan2754 is waiting to post, at the very least, his suspect list until after the round is over. ryan2754 is already playing dead and he's a possible NK target if he is a villager - I don't understand why he is taking any sort of chance when the NK could be put in immediately or before the round is even over. My thought process is that we already have a few players voting for Volcanon and Tranderas essentially as a policy lynch already. I don't see any harm in taking a look to consider lynching a player who is taking chances that he should know he shouldn't take. I find this suspicious (and strange TBH) combined with his exchange to MeddlingMage where he appears to somewhat change his stance and vote for Jazaray while admitting that he doesn't have a read on her (although I'm not as suspicious about his vote or exchange as I am that). I'm still going to be voting for Zakman86 or Gawain though. {SUMMARY: explains suspicion}
[Edited 2 times, lastly by dakrum on April 14, 2010]
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Gawain Member
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posted April 14, 2010 01:08 PM
quote: Originally posted by dakrum: For this case, because I'm at work.I will tell you that the suspect is ryan2754, but I don't have time to say anything more than that - I will edit this message somewhere between 2 and 4 PM MOTL time (5-7PM EST).
Hrrrmmm, this is interesting. Of course I have my own reasons for suspecting ryan, but I would be curious to hear yours. As to policy lynches...I'm kind of back and forth on the idea. I used to believe that they made sense in terms of ridding us of silents, and maybe nailing a baddie in the process, but then I realized that it just provided another hiding place for trolls/woofs/scum, that being right out in the open. At this point, I'm not wholly against the idea, but if a policy lynch is going to happen, I believe R1 is the ONLY time in which it makes sense, and even then it can be a waste if not utilized properly. I've tentatively settled on random votes for R1 from here on out, but I'm open to adapting that to suit the needs of the situation (i.e., the round where we nailed Zak R1 because he was so obviously OOC, though I became suspicious of him a hair too late myself).
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Zakman86 Member
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posted April 14, 2010 02:11 PM
quote: Originally posted by Gawain: Hrrrmmm, this is interesting. Of course I have my own reasons for suspecting ryan, but I would be curious to hear yours.As to policy lynches...I'm kind of back and forth on the idea. I used to believe that they made sense in terms of ridding us of silents, and maybe nailing a baddie in the process, but then I realized that it just provided another hiding place for trolls/woofs/scum, that being right out in the open. At this point, I'm not wholly against the idea, but if a policy lynch is going to happen, I believe R1 is the ONLY time in which it makes sense, and even then it can be a waste if not utilized properly. I've tentatively settled on random votes for R1 from here on out, but I'm open to adapting that to suit the needs of the situation (i.e., the round where we nailed Zak R1 because he was so obviously OOC, though I became suspicious of him a hair too late myself).
Note also that I played a terrible wolf... Work's been kicking my butt lately, so I just haven't had a lot of time to dissect posts, and I have other things going on at home, thus the complete and utter lack of any good analysis for anyone to go on. Expect some good stuff next round. Promise. I'm still voting Trand though.
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dakrum Member
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posted April 14, 2010 04:18 PM
I will be voting for Zakman86 again.I'm not head-over-heels suspicious of ryan2754, but I can't think of a reason why he wouldn't be sharing some more of his findings and trying his best to scumhunt just in case he does get removed. I could be overreacting to the dialogue and it could be just a simple mistake, but I've seen enough to garner suspicion. Current suspect list is now this (since I'm going to put Jazaray at a completely neutral position for now): Medium: Zakman86, Gawain Medium-Low: NONE Low: ryan2754, fwybwed {SUMMARY: reveals list} {SUSPECT: Gawain (med)} {SUSPECT: ryan2754 (low - taking chance, previous interaction and vote)} {SUSPECT: fwybwed (low)} {VOTING: Zakman86 (med)}
[Edited 1 times, lastly by dakrum on April 14, 2010]
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ryan2754 Member
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posted April 14, 2010 04:31 PM
This is gonna be fun. I love this part of the game.So let me get this straight MM. I'm suspicious if I jump on the Volc or Trand bandwagon. I'm also suspicious if I vote for Jaz/vote for NOT one of the leading bandwagons. So the only way I'm not suspicious is if I was one to start one of the two leading bandwagons? That's proposterous. Oh, and if you've never noticed, I always vote on my own. I absolutely hate piling onto a bandwagon I don't believe in. A lot of people consider that stupid, and a waste of a vote but I do not. If I just pile on other bandwagons without trying to start my own (based on my own findings and suspicions), then according to your logic, MM, I'm suspicious no matter what. THe only way I'm not suspicious according to you is if I start a wagon/join early, and get people to tag along. Again, that's a ridiculous thing to say. So I am suspicious if I join a wagon, but if I try and form my own against the main ones, I'm suspicious? That's a no win situation for me according you, and I'm suspicious either way. Dumb. As for policy lynches, I have generally the same belief as Gawain. I rarely like using them beyond R2ish. I only use them when there is relatively nothing else to go on, and generally do it against silents, no matter what the reason for the silence is. The less people discuss, the less post analysis there is to do, the fewer ideas get thrown in the open, the less likely the citizenry/MOTL members have a chance to win. Rarely if ever do I do a policy lynch on someone I don't like playing with. In essence, I prefer not to use policy lynches - it degrades vote analysis as you can't get a real pattern off of it, but sometimes its all there is (like, when people don't talk). So, for lack of better options, it's usually what I turn to, but I rarely like to use it, and not beyond R1 or R2, unless of course, say, PD is still around past R5 with no cop/seer to verify his alignment. Then again, his lynch is almost always a info lynch, so it's not strictly a policy lynch, but I digress.
Oh, and I'm sick of this "the people that talk the most are the most likely to get lynched." Yes, they are more likely to make mistakes, but it's all about sample size. It results in a catch 22. People don't want to get lynched, so they don't talk. They don't talk, and the citizenry gets the L. We then try to lynch silents, but it never pans out. Tunneling down the rabbit hole ensues.
quote: Originally posted by dakrum:
I don't know why ryan2754 is waiting to post, at the very least, his suspect list until after the round is over.
What are you talking about here? IIRC, I was one of the first players to do a comprehensive list of all of the players and my suspects. I was asked to do a suspect list, and I re-read the thread when I was able and made my list. How is that in the slightest suspicious?quote: Originally posted by dakrum: ryan2754 is already playing dead and he's a possible NK target if he is a villager - I don't understand why he is taking any sort of chance when the NK could be put in immediately or before the round is even over.
Are you still harping on that I didn't do my suspect list until after the banning/lynch before the NK? If you didn't notice, I said I didn't PM my vote to Josh, but he took my word from my post. I didn't think the day would be over that quick, and didn't have a chance to PM my vote, much like I didn't have time to give my suspect list (again, which I am one of the few, if not the only one to do comprehensively this game). So I'm suspicious because I didn't respond in time according to your standards, but people who aren't talking at all aren't? Please. Oh look, we're falling into the "people that talk get lynched trap." Good Lord people. Do you want to win?
quote: Originally posted by dakrum: My thought process is that we already have a few players voting for Volcanon and Tranderas essentially as a policy lynch already. I don't see any harm in taking a look to consider lynching a player who is taking chances that he should know he shouldn't take.
What are you even saying here? What chances are you talking about 'that I shouldn't take'? You're being very cryptic, and in the process, aren't making any sense.quote: Originally posted by dakrum: I find this suspicious (and strange TBH) combined with his exchange to MeddlingMage where he appears to somewhat change his stance and vote for Jazaray while admitting that he doesn't have a read on her (although I'm not as suspicious about his vote or exchange as I am that).
Can I say it any more clearly than I did before? MM accused me of the same thing. Again, I NEVER changed my opinion. I am still glad that MM brought it up. I never changed that stance. What intrigued me after the fact was that he didn't offer any analysis of his own, which seemed like he was trying to bring evidence to the forefront, without being the one to "get the wagon rolling," a very subtle form of a hidden agenda. So again, never changed my opinion. You are right, I don't have a read on Jaz. Can ANYBODY have a read on Jaz? If you do, please let us in. She has said all of about 2 words; however, she usually isn't this silent. She has explained it, and has asked for a replacement. Ok, cool. But still, I don't like the silence, and with so much of it running rampant and without further leads, she/her replacement is getting my vote. I'm pretty sure I went over this same exact situation with BoT in the last game I played - people get angry when they get accused for being silent when they have RL issues. The accusee then thinks people are attacking them for "acting" like they have RL issues to win the game, and a downward spiral ensues to namecalling/playstyle attacking. If you look back at that game, which I may have saved, I've already explained my stance on silence and why people aren't lynched because they might be hiding behind RL issues to win as silents, but because of the silents itself, which doesn't give the citizenry any info to win (again the more we allow silence to win out, the more the baddies will continue to win - obviously last game was long and the cits lost, but the general trend holds). It's annoying when you are constantly a cit and silence wins out and you repeatedly lose (for example, I think ML490 was a mafia member quite a few games back, and killed off all the talkatives to slide behind the silence to victory - guarantee that couldn't be done had people all talked). I understand that RL issues come up, but at least make an effort to post once or twice SUBSTANTIALLY per round. Again, not how frequently you post, but the substance is what matters (IIoA, etc.). Wow I digress. Either way, I still defend my vote, because unlike the wagon hoppers, I vote for my own reasons using my own logic (active scumhunting), instead of just following along (passive). Sorry if this post comes off as way too defensive, but when I see 1.) weak and absolutely horrible logic and 2.) getting ridiculed for voting the way I do, I can't wait to jump out and defend myself - it's the best part of the game.
quote: Originally posted by dakrum: I'm still going to be voting for Zakman86 or Gawain though.
So let me get this straight. You lay out a fairly extensive(albeit poor) case against me, yet still want to vote for Zak or Gawain? Doesn't make any sense at all. Just seeing who will join your bandwgagon that you created, but you aren't on it so when people look at votes you won't be on a cit wagon? Seems like the exact same thing MM was trying to do with mentioning the coolio/junichi thing, only much worse.That was fun. {SUMMARY: Defends self against bad logic} __________________ -Schmitty 5th in Refs [184] in OH-IO (Catching up to xion_black) 2nd in Posts [5255] in OH-IO (Have a long way to go to catch Val) Mafia/Werewolf Record: 2-1 as Mafia 6-5 as Cit
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ryan2754 Member
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posted April 14, 2010 04:39 PM
quote: Originally posted by dakrum: I'm not head-over-heels suspicious of ryan2754, but I can't think of a reason why he wouldn't be sharing some more of his findings and trying his best to scumhunt just in case he does get removed. I could be overreacting to the dialogue and it could be just a simple mistake, but I've seen enough to garner suspicion.
So you make an extensive case on me, dak, moreso than your top suspects, and now you say you aren't head over heels on it? From my perspective, I see it as a weak case, no doubt, but you seem to be backpedaling/fencesitting hereAnd what do you mean "wouldn't be sharing some more of his findings?" I've shared everything I've got so far. And it seems to be a hell of a lot more than some people have. How am I NOT doing my best to scumhunt? I've made a comprehensive list of suspects, my ideas on everyone, and thrown out more than the average bear. As much as I will take this as a compliment that you value my opinion, I don't want people taking my opinions and words as TRUTH and just following in behind. Everyone needs to throw out their suspicions. The problem is, IMO, people are afraid to voice their opinions in fear of being wrong, or their opinions/arguments weakened and defended against in the fear of themselves looking suspicious. Thus, silence (see a pattern here?). {SUMMARY: more response to dakrum} __________________ -Schmitty 5th in Refs [184] in OH-IO (Catching up to xion_black) 2nd in Posts [5255] in OH-IO (Have a long way to go to catch Val) Mafia/Werewolf Record: 2-1 as Mafia 6-5 as Cit
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dakrum Member
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posted April 14, 2010 05:32 PM
@ryan2754 - I am in no way referring to round one and the night phase that came after it. Why would I be unhappy that you did the best you could before and after the lynch was made public? I am referring to this round which was given an extra day - the truth is that I haven't seen a suspect list or a list of where you think at least your top suspects stand since the second nightkill. Do you know what could of happened if you are a villager and got nightkilled right on the spot - we would have your suspect list of SIX players from the previous nightkill and we would have had very little idea where you currently stood.How does that help the villagers? If you take it from the standpoint that I was referring to round one, then yes, you are ABSOLUTELY RIGHT in that I'm being a total hypocrite and using awful logic. However, I don't think I can defend myself from an argument I didn't make. However, I will at least respond to your other concerns: quote: Originally posted by ryan2754: So let me get this straight. You lay out a fairly extensive(albeit poor) case against me, yet still want to vote for Zak or Gawain? Doesn't make any sense at all. Just seeing who will join your bandwgagon that you created, but you aren't on it so when people look at votes you won't be on a cit wagon? Seems like the exact same thing MM was trying to do with mentioning the coolio/junichi thing, only much worse.
My biggest case for Zakman is that I think he's lying (the mirroring isn't that significant). My biggest case for Gawain is essentially that I dislike his logic and I think he's playing in an OOC fashion that would be reminiscent of him being a troll - and I know Gawain to some extent. That's the shortest and simplest way I can put it. I don't think you are lying or trying to intentionally fill your posts, and I don't know how you think that my best case is against somebody who I don't think is LYING.
quote: Originally posted by ryan2754: So you make an extensive case on me, dak, moreso than your top suspects, and now you say you aren't head over heels on it? From my perspective, I see it as a weak case, no doubt, but you seem to be backpedaling/fencesitting hereAnd what do you mean "wouldn't be sharing some more of his findings?" I've shared everything I've got so far. And it seems to be a hell of a lot more than some people have. How am I NOT doing my best to scumhunt? I've made a comprehensive list of suspects, my ideas on everyone, and thrown out more than the average bear. As much as I will take this as a compliment that you value my opinion, I don't want people taking my opinions and words as TRUTH and just following in behind. Everyone needs to throw out their suspicions. The problem is, IMO, people are afraid to voice their opinions in fear of being wrong, or their opinions/arguments weakened and defended against in the fear of themselves looking suspicious. Thus, silence (see a pattern here?).
Again, I'm worried that you didn't share something else for round two. My initial read was that you were either hiding something or leaving us with a lot of posts that we might have deciphered incorrectly. I'm trying to call it as I see it. I'm not afraid to voice my opinions, and I don't care how suspicious anybody else is of me - I am already playing an entirely different game than Mafia 8 and a entirely different game than Werewolf 1. If you feel that I am a troll, then that's perfectly fine. Villagers HAVE to die in order for the rest of them to win and I frankly don't care if that has to be now, next round, or the round after that. I won't lie though - outside of Gawain and Zakman86, I really have a log jam of players and I can't find any logical connectives to put some more pieces or probabilities together. I don't feel that I am backpedaling though (although that's a fair conclusion considering that I should have made myself much more clear). If I make it to the next round, I would like to take a fresh look at everything and see if the voting history says anything useful. This silence and lack of activity has me very confused, but maybe having two new players will alleviate almost all or all of the problem. I played with ToL in mafia 8 when he had serious computer problems, so I know how much silence sucks (from seeing it through ALL ends of the spectrum I might add). I just don't want to throw lynches in the can to go on goose chases and I already don't think that Volcanon is a troll. {SUMMARY: some defense and hopeful clarification}
[Edited 1 times, lastly by dakrum on April 14, 2010]
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ryan2754 Member
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posted April 14, 2010 05:53 PM
So you are talking about the extra day that Josh just gave us? This is almost just as laughable. I made my last post before the extra day he gave us, and went to bed. I didn't check the thread again until, well just when I made my response to you. That was what...a day tops? My post was made April 13th 4:48 PM. I submitted my vote. I was gonna check the results when I had a chance later the next day. He then makes his post at 9:29 PM. So you are expecting me to have checked back in in a span of five hours to know that? The next chance I had to look at the thread was today, around, what, 5 ish? So you are saying that the thing that SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED is that I should have checked in after the additional day was added before I responded today? You responded with your "new suspect" post literally around 14 hours after Josh's extension post. So you are EXPECTING ME/ACCUSING THAT I SHOULD HAVE RESPONDED WITHIN THAT TIME FRAME of roughly 18 hours since my last post? Good Lord, dakrum. Your calling me suspicious because I didn't check in for around 23 hours when other people can't even get their votes in? This might be worse than before. This is almost in and of itself worthy of a vote. Hoepfully other people can see the same. __________________ -Schmitty 5th in Refs [184] in OH-IO (Catching up to xion_black) 2nd in Posts [5255] in OH-IO (Have a long way to go to catch Val) Mafia/Werewolf Record: 2-1 as Mafia 6-5 as Cit
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WCFmo Member
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posted April 14, 2010 06:01 PM
quote: Originally posted by ryan2754: The less people discuss, the less post analysis there is to do, the fewer ideas get thrown in the open, the less likely the citizenry/MOTL members have a chance to win. .... Oh, and I'm sick of this "the people that talk the most are the most likely to get lynched." Yes, they are more likely to make mistakes, but it's all about sample size. It results in a catch 22. [b]People don't want to get lynched, so they don't talk. They don't talk, and the citizenry gets the L. ... Oh look, we're falling into the "people that talk get lynched trap." Good Lord people. Do you want to win? [/B]
Do you really think it's all about sample size? It's just a fact of the game man, why do you think PD is always suspected? The trolls/wolves/mafia only chime in when they need to IMHO...that's not to say wolves never talk, but they tend to talk more when the game is ending rather than in the beginning stages. Hmmmm...., man I just want to go back and read some old threads with you as a cit/wolf to figure out what your style is.... (Edit - Re: Sample Size vs. Talking too much) Either way, I don't think you are not totally getting the concept, as they are basically the same darn thing, except that all players will make mistakes (you don't know the variables) and if you were perfect...that could be used against you as well (i.e. he knows who's a cit and not a cit, obviously he's a troll). quote: Originally posted by ryan2754:
What are you talking about here? IIRC, I was one of the first players to do a comprehensive list of all of the players and my suspects. I was asked to do a suspect list, and I re-read the thread when I was able and made my list. How is that in the slightest suspicious?
Maybe it is more the fact that you were asked/goaded by me to do it that he's harping on? Anyways, darkrum & ryan, maybe you are both cits, why not throw your heads together instead of arguing whose logic is better/worse? As it stands, I think I'll keep my vote on Volcanon or vote zak. If I survive till Saturday, I'm gonna review this whole thing b/c I really haven't had time this week and really try to analyze it. Ryan and darkrum - who is the person you would both vote for? {SUMMARY: Blah}
[Edited 1 times, lastly by WCFmo on April 14, 2010]
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dakrum Member
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posted April 14, 2010 06:04 PM
I honestly don't think there is any way that ryan2754 will understand what I'm getting at, so there isn't a point in continuing the discussion. I don't know whether it is a giant misunderstanding or not, but I urge the MOTLers to use discretion and try to figure things out for themselves with their own abilities and not rush to form needless bandwagons.It appears that the only way the villagers can win is for me to go RIGHT NOW. I strongly doubt that Volcanon is a troll so at the very least you are getting an extra round out of this. I would have liked to see this horrible streak of silence and mafia/wolf/troll victories end, but there is too much at stake at this stage in the game to worry about that. I chose this playing persona for this game knowing that this would most likely happen. I will post later tonight with some parting thoughts. I will be spilling everything. {VOTING: dakrum}
[Edited 2 times, lastly by dakrum on April 14, 2010]
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dakrum Member
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posted April 14, 2010 06:22 PM
quote: Originally posted by WCFmo:
Ryan and darkrum - who is the person you would both vote for? {SUMMARY: Blah}
Based on what his current suspect list most likely is, Gawain would be the person that would go. It's possible that fwybwed would be the highest mathematical probability if we would go by percentages, but I think that Gawain would have the highest number anyway.
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WCFmo Member
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posted April 14, 2010 06:27 PM
quote: Originally posted by dakrum:
It appears that the only way the villagers can win is for me to go RIGHT NOW.
Huh? I don't suspect you, I don't see that much suspicion on you...what gives? quote: Originally posted by dakrum:
I chose this playing persona for this game knowing that this would most likely happen.I will post later tonight with some parting thoughts. I will be spilling everything. {VOTING: dakrum}
Darkrum, dude...I'm sorry this game hasn't lived up to your expectations, but I'd say wait until we get 2 new players. At this point, like I said earlier...I have a stack of files in front of me and clients wanting all sorts of things from me and I'm working at 8 till 6 and then coming back and working more...I've got to make sure an appeal gets filed on time , so while I will contribute I just don't have time for the analysis I had last game... I really need to reread this whole thread (which lots of people say they do but I'm fairly certain they don't) to find something that looks suspicious. So I'll take some of the blame darkrum, let's just see what happens after the votes. {SUMMARY: Give it time darkrum}
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dakrum Member
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posted April 14, 2010 06:41 PM
If the game hasn't lived up to expectations, it's because I'm the problem and the reason that it hasn't been to expectations - my logic hasn't been stellar and I've been really stifling some of the discussion that could be happening.There's no fingers that need to be pointed at players here. However, keep in mind that I DO NOT SUSPECT VOLCANON, and right now he is pretty much guaranteed to be lynched. I'm in a pickle where I get to see somebody I'm about 90% sure isn't a troll lynched all while I gain a good bit of suspicion in a game that's spiraling down the pit of silent lynching or finger pointing. Instead of most likely being down one MOTLer, you're most likely going to be down two if I don't do something. Jaz isn't as hard as anybody else to read once you figure her out. It takes a few rounds, but there are plenty of ways. I will put my vote back to Zakman86. Do whatever you want ryan2754. {VOTING: Zakman86}
[Edited 1 times, lastly by dakrum on April 14, 2010]
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ryan2754 Member
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posted April 14, 2010 07:05 PM
Dakrum, I think you are overreacting. You have spurred conversation, not stifled it. Nobody really suspects you. Don't vote for yourself. And there isn't too much at stake: we are in the second day, and to page 8 nonetheless. The problem is, all the convo is from only half the players. Granted, I'm up in the air right now, but usually, when two people go at it like you and I, more often than not they are both citizens, and people (trolls in particular) just hang around and let it happen, hoping a wagon forms on one of them. I am keeping my vote. Most people aren't changing theirs. You will be around for another round. We need your discussion, we just need to end our little banter. People will be able to sift through it to find some stuff, but it's gone as far as it should. WCF, you'd be surprised on how similar my wolf and cit games are. I talk relatively the same amount and harp on discussion and silence the same nontheless. Yes, I understand all players will make mistakes - that's what I want. It's when it becomes a pattern. One mistake, sure OK; multiple mistakes, likelier to be troll. It's pretty simple. But if they don't talk, they won't have the ability to make mistakes and thus no read on that person.
Also, this game is all about arguing logic and who has good arguments. You whole "why not throw your heads together thing" seems slightly contrived. And I hate when people say "If I survive...." It's as if you have something to hide.
__________________ -Schmitty 5th in Refs [184] in OH-IO (Catching up to xion_black) 2nd in Posts [5255] in OH-IO (Have a long way to go to catch Val) Mafia/Werewolf Record: 2-1 as Mafia 6-5 as Cit
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fwybwed Member
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posted April 14, 2010 07:10 PM
Well thats sweet of Wcf and Dak to be getting along so well....and Dak stating he leaving would be the only way we would win....??? then votes for himself lol then WCF coming in "Ohh dakie poo I dont suspect you at allll....why you illin...?" Dak acting all MOTL and stuff while the votes as per MM will show they would never have him voted off.....isn't that sweet... Oh Dak...you brave soul you...im inspired.... NOTE: Im jes adding boredom flavour WCF you voted ryan...then changed to Gawain...but FORGOT to post you vote change???? as per dakrums logic...which you dont trust....hmmm Suspect Dakrum, Gawain, WCF..... Its funny how gawains response in defense mode was way better then alot of his accusations, now thats a 180.. from both Dak and Wcf stated were bad arguments....but they have completely left him off atm... Dak not suspecting Volcanon AND in caps even...hmmm shows some positivness and as u say "he is pretty much guaranteed to be lynched" and yet you put yourself up on a vote lol... hmmmm
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Gawain Member
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posted April 14, 2010 07:26 PM
quote: Originally posted by fwybwed:
Its funny how gawains response in defense mode was way better then alot of his accusations, now thats a 180.. from both Dak and Wcf stated were bad arguments....but they have completely left him off atm... hmmmm
It's pretty simple really. It's a lot easier to defend against an argument than it is to make an accusation. When someone makes an attack against you, and you know it's wrong, and you know WHY it's wrong, you have a very concrete argument you can make to counter the accusation. When you make an accusation and you have very little evidence to go on, the only information being the things a person has said, then you can never really be truly sure you're right until proven so, which in this game can only be done through a death, and a needless death is something any good citizen should hope to be able to avoid. There are times, such as last game when I suspected Liq, when I'm willing to follow through with my suspicion to the point of making an accusation, because I feel so strongly that I'm correct. That doesn't happen often in this game, and I've frankly become a hair gunshy because of the several times that I've gone against my gut, essentially gambling, and been wrong (such as my R1 vote of you last game). Further, I just don't have a lot of time on my hands right now for analysis, so I'm even more cautious about making the wrong decision regarding who I'm voting for. I've already stated my reasons for voting Volcanon, and frankly, I think it's sound. I have my suspicions of other players, such as ryan, Zak, Jaz, and to a lesser extent Dakrum, but I have my reasons for not voting them as well. Ryan and Dakrum are the primary stimulators of conversation at this point, and conversation is pro-town, period. Zak has said a few things that bother me, but I don't think the mirroring is a tell, and that seems to be what several people are going off of right now. And frankly, I believe Jaz regarding the Census thing. I know how demanding it can be time-wise, especially for a crew leader, because you have District breathing down your neck 24/7 to get **** done. Volcanon has been erratic, but not completely silent. As was mentioned earlier, trolls/scum/woofs tend to post only as much as is necessary to appear to be active, and tend also to take a more reactionary than proactive role, and this fits Volcanon's playstyle perfectly right now. That, paired with accusations made with no evidence, logic, or reasoning to back them, and as far as I'm concerned he's the best possible vote for this round. Even if either ryan or dakrum turn out to be trolls, I feel that the conversation they're creating right now provides a plethora of useful information, both now and for later stages of the game. I would be more interested in an info lynch of one, the other or both later on than a shot in the dark scum-hunting lynch right now.
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dakrum Member
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posted April 14, 2010 07:28 PM
quote: Originally posted by fwybwed: Well thats sweet of Wcf and Dak to be getting along so well....and Dak stating he leaving would be the only way we would win....??? then votes for himself lol then WCF coming in "Ohh dakie poo I dont suspect you at allll....why you illin...?" Dak acting all MOTL and stuff while the votes as per MM will show they would never have him voted off.....isn't that sweet... Oh Dak...you brave soul you...im inspired.... NOTE: Im jes adding boredom flavour WCF you voted ryan...then changed to Gawain...but FORGOT to post you vote change???? as per dakrums logic...which you dont trust....hmmm Suspect Dakrum, Gawain, WCF..... Its funny how gawains response in defense mode was way better then alot of his accusations, now thats a 180.. from both Dak and Wcf stated were bad arguments....but they have completely left him off atm... Dak not suspecting Volcanon AND in caps even...hmmm shows some positivness and as u say "he is pretty much guaranteed to be lynched" and yet you put yourself up on a vote lol... hmmmm
From my count, there are four people voting for Volcanon and three for Tranderas. Minus some switching, it is very likely that Volcanon will be gone. Yes, I am about 90% sure that Volcanon isn't a troll to the point I was willing to lynch myself and post that I was willing to do it. I'm trying to play a game of odds - his posts are so different and crazy that I don't think it's possible that a group with two other trolls would let him post that. This game is more than just figuring out who the trolls are - it's a game of figuring out who the villagers are too. There were many UBB games in the past won by determining who the cits were, and while this game has a very different cast of players, there aren't that many differences. Just ask ryan about the game where Scopes13mtg figured it all out (a game where Bernek was the cop and scryed GLE first - tells us nothing BTW).
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WCFmo Member
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posted April 14, 2010 08:01 PM
Well...if I switch my vote darkrum, that means tranderas gets the axe no matter who I pick (not counting anyone else switching), who would you rather have gone tranderas or volcanon?@ Ryan, I hate it when players hate trite things. Re: FWY's post, can anyone even read it? It hurts my head to look at that. So...we don't have much time here, let's try to get it done.
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Gawain Member
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posted April 14, 2010 08:10 PM
quote: Originally posted by WCFmo: Well...if I switch my vote darkrum, that means tranderas gets the axe no matter who I pick (not counting anyone else switching), who would you rather have gone tranderas or volcanon?@ Ryan, I hate it when players hate trite things. Re: FWY's post, can anyone even read it? It hurts my head to look at that. So...we don't have much time here, let's try to get it done.
That's how Fwyb roles bro. I understood him just fine, but then, I've spent many a game now deciphering Fwyb-speak. You'll get used to it :P
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WCFmo Member
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posted April 14, 2010 08:20 PM
quote: Originally posted by Tranderas: <thror> lol you guys lynched your moderator already. rofls <Tranderas> huh? <thror> motl salvation [b]<Zakman> I played the worst Draft deck ever last night <Tranderas> that was a real game?! <Zakman> and I STILL went 3-1 <thror> the thread is 5 pages long <Zakman> I played Quest for Ula's Temple, that's how bad the deck was <Tranderas> a thread can be 5 pages and be a joke <Tranderas> but...really? <thror> apparently so <thror> now im mad i didnt sign up^This happened a couple days ago. I thought the thread was a joke so I just ignored it, until thror told me it was a real game. [/B]
quote: Originally posted by Tranderas: So someone made an off-hand comment about the game going on in #motl. This game really happened? Seriously? I have some reading to do through the previous pages to see what's going on here.
quote: Originally posted by Zakman86: This game seems like it's going to be random and all over the place.Voting Tranderas because... well, it's Trand, he's a troll, and in the context it just makes sense. No real analysis to make at this time, unfortunately.
This is in reverse order. Why wouldn't zak know about this? I'm switching my vote to tranderas right now, but if zak could be on the chopping block, I think I'd go after him. Tranderas mentions that thror told him...why didn't zak say anything? Slightly odd to me. As it stands, I think dak is a cit, ryan probably a cit, and everyone else I have no idea. {VOTING: Tranderas} edit - quote: Originally posted by Gawain: That's how Fwyb roles bro. I understood him just fine, but then, I've spent many a game now deciphering Fwyb-speak. You'll get used to it :P
I see. I think I quoted him several times in the last game and they didn't seem as off putting as the one above. But I digress. Here's my suspects - (sorry Dak, still gotta suspect Volc) {SUSPECT: ZAK, GAW, VOL}
[Edited 1 times, lastly by WCFmo on April 14, 2010]
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WCFmo Member
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posted April 14, 2010 08:43 PM
Well there was a post by OGB just here...hmmm, and he deleted it.I meant he didn't say anything in the thread one way or the other. (edit - it stands that zak, knowing what he knew at the point that was posted...could have at least pointed that out to us) Why delete your post OGB? {SUMMARY: WHY?}
[Edited 1 times, lastly by WCFmo on April 14, 2010]
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Tranderas Member
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posted April 14, 2010 08:46 PM
Zak didn't say anything to me because Zak holds a grudge against me for some reason unknown to me. Observe:quote: Originally posted by Zakman86 on Friday, his first post of the game: This game seems like it's going to be random and all over the place.Voting Tranderas because... well, it's Trand, he's a troll, and in the context it just makes sense. No real analysis to make at this time, unfortunately.
He will continue to vote against me because of that grudge, without any logic behind it. quote: Originally posted by Zakman86 today: Note also that I played a terrible wolf... Work's been kicking my butt lately, so I just haven't had a lot of time to dissect posts, and I have other things going on at home, thus the complete and utter lack of any good analysis for anyone to go on. Expect some good stuff next round. Promise. I'm still voting Trand though.
I rest my case. {Summary: Answers WCFmo's concerns.}
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OGB Member
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posted April 14, 2010 08:47 PM
quote: Originally posted by WCFmo: Well there was a post by OGB just here...hmmm, and he deleted it.I meant he didn't say anything in the thread one way or the other. (edit - it stands that zak, knowing what he knew at the point that was posted...could have at least pointed that out to us) Why delete your post OGB? {SUMMARY: WHY?}
Well usually in these games, discussion of the game outside of the thread is a no-no. So I was going to post that Zak couldn't have said anything to Tran because that's against the rules. However, I went back to read the rules to make sure that was the case and didn't see anything about that. Looking back on it, if you can say anything at any time (i.e. lie about your role or whatever), then that constriction doesn't make much sense. I didn't think it was a big deal to delete it since I was wrong in the first place, but since you called me out on it, there you go. {SUMMARY: answeres WCF about deleted post}
__________________ Check out OldGhastbot on MTGO to buy and sell cards at ultracompetitive prices!
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fwybwed Member
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posted April 14, 2010 09:24 PM
quote: Originally posted by WCF: Ryan and darkrum - who is the person you would both vote for?
Yeah who Dak...huh WHOOOOO~!? quote: Originally posted by dakrum: Based on what his current suspect list most likely is, Gawain would be the person that would go. It's possible that fwybwed would be the highest mathematical probability if we would go by percentages, but I think that Gawain would have the highest number anyway.
And here Im sure he asks both you and Ryan for votes but you give ryans answer for him??? Wheres your answer in this....I missed this from my earlier post...so i thought I would add it. quote: Originally posted by dakrum: From my count, there are four people voting for Volcanon and three for Tranderas. Minus some switching, it is very likely that Volcanon will be gone. Yes, I am about 90% sure that Volcanon isn't a troll to the point I was willing to lynch myself and post that I was willing to do it.
To lynch anyone you and your one vote for yourself would have needed more than jes you...but you knew that right???? quote: Originally posted by WCF: Re: FWY's post, can anyone even read it? It hurts my head to look at that.
Lies...That post is straight forward....and you know it... quote: Originally posted by WCF: I see. I think I quoted him several times in the last game and they didn't seem as off putting as the one above. But I digress.
Really...yet at the beginning you say you have forgotten my play style etc...but know you that you have quoted me and that they were not as puzzling as the ones ive recently posted.... hmmmm quote: Originally posted by WCF: Here's my suspects - (sorry Dak, still gotta suspect Volc)
Trying to break the buddy connection here...lol I voted for Zak Suspects WCF Dakrum Gawain....in that order...
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