quote:

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Originally posted by thror:
Wcfmo - Assuming that means Yaku is a cit?

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quote:

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Originally posted by Montague:
I think the cop is smart enough to know whether or not he should come out.

On another note, I do have a role. It is not mafia. I'm not letting anybody know what it is because it won't help.

Anyway, I was out of town for an audit today, but u will hear from me in the morning.

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I too have a non mafia role, but I would like to have you answer a question first before I reveal myself. From your statement, it sounds like you have a role that you don't want to reveal to us, and my first instinct was "you must be the bomb then!?".

However, if you are the bomb, wouldn't you try to play more aggressively to get the mafia's attention, and hope to be the target of a NK!? Besides, even if you don't reveal yourself as the bomb, the chance of mafia choosing you as their next NK is slim to none, since they could easily choose one of the many confirmed cits with known roles as their next NK target instead of ones with a question mark on them.

If you are the vigilante, tracker, roleblocker, or the last mason, then it wouldn't hurt the citizens at all even if you reveal who you are.

If you are the survivor, then you probably would like the mafia to win right now, so the game would end and you can win the game along with the mafia. In that case, there is no reason to come out and say you have a non mafia role, since the last thing you want is to help the cit out.

Now, if you could, please tell us who you are, so we can have less uncertainty. Thanks.

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

Also, the cop doesn't get roles, he just gets "cit / mafia".

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:
Either Thror is lying about being the Doc, WCFmo is lying about being the Cop, or both. I'm leaning towards WCFmo, since he didn't bother to state the actual roles of the individuals he has supposedly checked. Maybe he thought that it would be implied that since he didn't mention any roles, everyone who he checked was a Cit, but I don't buy it. I know I promised butt tons of analysis, but these reveals have completely thrown me off whack; I am reasonably certain however that one, if not both of these reveals is false. What about Jaz's claim that she "tried to save the Cop," but her status was Citizen? How in hell would she know who the Cop was if she was a Cit???

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__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:
Either Thror is lying about being the Doc, WCFmo is lying about being the Cop, or both. I'm leaning towards WCFmo, since he didn't bother to state the actual roles of the individuals he has supposedly checked. Maybe he thought that it would be implied that since he didn't mention any roles, everyone who he checked was a Cit, but I don't buy it. I know I promised butt tons of analysis, but these reveals have completely thrown me off whack; I am reasonably certain however that one, if not both of these reveals is false. What about Jaz's claim that she "tried to save the Cop," but her status was Citizen? How in hell would she know who the Cop was if she was a Cit???

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I didn't explicitly say who the roles were. I incidentally left it off. The rest of your post I'm just confused by.

quote:

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Originally posted by junichi:
I do believe it is going to be between OGB and Monty, depends on how he answers my question.

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Drunk.

Hers what i can gather briefly

WCFmo-say hes the cop
Monty has a role but wont reveal-not mafia

junichi-admits having a role-not mafia

we also have ray and OGB to consider they haven't posted yet. So either one of them could be mafia

I'm also not so sure about the others cause i can't get good reads on em.

Monty has a role, but wont disclose
Yaku and Thror are citizens
WCFmo comes out saying he's a cop
Junichi-non mafia role
Ray admits he doesn't have a role

Thats means one of the above is still mafia and all three below are mafia as well

Gawain
OGB
hilikuS

quote:

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Originally posted by LA3:
Heres what we know

Monty has a role, but wont disclose
Yaku and Thror are citizens
WCFmo comes out saying he's a cop
Junichi-non mafia role
Ray admits he doesn't have a role

Thats means one of the above is still mafia and all three below are mafia as well

Gawain
OGB
hilikuS

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Are you going to assume that everyone is telling the truth here? It's probable that at least one player is lying about their role, if not more than 1.

If you believe WCF to be the cop, then both yaku and thror are cleared. However, I feel like taking everyone's word for it is kind of pushing it. Nobody has come out to disprove WCF as the cop, but I mean, there's no way to prove that everyone is telling the truth here.

It seems to me like you're trying to push for a quick lynch here LA3, and I'm not too keen on it. The mafia are on the brink of winning. Are you trying to get this round done and over with quickly? I feel like that's what the mafia would want right now.

I'd still like to hear from Monty and OGB before the end of this round, and see what they've got for us, and before I make a final vote. Right now, I've got to go with LA3 based on this.

quote:

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Originally posted by LA3:
Heres what we know

Monty has a role, but wont disclose
Yaku and Thror are citizens
WCFmo comes out saying he's a cop
Junichi-non mafia role
Ray admits he doesn't have a role

Thats means one of the above is still mafia and all three below are mafia as well

Gawain
OGB
hilikuS

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Here's what we also know - anybody is allowed to claim a role at any time...an important piece of information to leave out, LA3. It's the same as Mafia 11, which you were a part of.

I agree with hilikus, this raises red flags for me, too. This is some serious tunneling going on by LA3. My stance right now is to not believe anyone at this point, so everyone left is effectively on my suspicion list.

Lastly, the other thing to remember is that it's possible that we don't have a Cop or a Doctor, as Liq listed those roles as "possibly assigned" on Page 1.

IF we don't have a cop, I don't see ANY way for us to win this game. And, because nobody else has counter claimed, I think we have to assume it's legit. Because if 2 cits vote differently from the other 4, the mafia have enough people to pile a cit and win in the NK phase.

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

quote:

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Originally posted by thror:
Here's the thing. IF wcfmo isnt the cop, then either: We don't have one OR they haven't revealed for some reason.

IF we don't have a cop, I don't see ANY way for us to win this game. And, because nobody else has counter claimed, I think we have to assume it's legit. Because if 2 cits vote differently from the other 4, the mafia have enough people to pile a cit and win in the NK phase.

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Mind you we still allegedly have a doctor. So a save is possible to prolong the game.

quote:

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Originally posted by thror:
Here's the thing. IF wcfmo isnt the cop, then either: We don't have one OR they haven't revealed for some reason.

IF we don't have a cop, I don't see ANY way for us to win this game. And, because nobody else has counter claimed, I think we have to assume it's legit. Because if 2 cits vote differently from the other 4, the mafia have enough people to pile a cit and win in the NK phase.

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So let's look at LA3's analysis from a different angle, if we're operating under the assumption that all the role-claimers are true:

Confirmed cits:
Yak
WCFmo
thror

Non-disclosed roles:
Monty
junichi

No role:
ray

Undeclared:
OGB
Hili
Gawain
LA3 (although I guess you could deduce from his last few posts that we are to assume he is a cit with no role, even though he hasn't explicitly stated as such)

To your voting point, thror, even if one cit strays from the vote, the Mafia can still pile on and force a tie.

So question to the confirmed cits - how do we proceed from here? Who are you three the most suspicious of at this time? My list is as follows:

LA3 (for a few rounds now, he seems to flip flop a lot in regards to his reads with no real explanation, and his analysis seems to leave out key points)

junichi - asks Monty to reveal his role to avoid hiding information, but then doesn't reveal his role himself.

If we are to take Monty at his word, then the only possible reason revealing his role won't help is if the role had no night actions, so I think we can deduce that Monty is the Survivor, and thus a confirmed cit, right?

@ OGB - The problem with those two saying 'i have a role but i wont say which' - is that it feels like a cover. They risk claiming a role someone else has, so they just fudge it. I am worried at least one of them is lying.

Ray has been much more inactive than last game, and i honestly believe it is because he is a vanilla cit and feels like he lost another game. I'm going to put him on my confirmed cit list (I know, big turnaround from round1. Knowing Ray IRL makes him a little easier to read given time). That leaves me with:

Confirmed-
Thror
Yaku
WCF
Ray

Possible-
Monty
Juni

Unknown-
OGB
Hili
Gaw
LA3

At this moment, obviously the 4 unknowns are my highest suspects, but that assumes everything else is the truth and I think that's rather improbable. Votes aren't due until Monday, and it is going to take some time to come to a real consensus.

Monty, Juni - I am asking you to name your roles.

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

OGB - No special non mafia role. Has been laying low for the entire game while taking a jab once in awhile. Trying to confuse us that the cop/doctor could be fakes. Possibly going for LA3.

hilikuS - No special non mafia role. Has been consistent, but the questioning of the cop/doctor sets off the alarm. Voting LA3.

Now, regarding to why I don't want to reveal my vote until Monty does, is because if what he claims to be has conflict with who I am, that would tell me he is not a citizen. I do promise, if by the end of the day, Monty still doesn't reveal his role, I will reveal mine, but I will have to assume what he says in the future as highly suspicious.

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

quote:

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Originally posted by thror:
@ hili - I AM the doctor, believe me or not. I really dont want it to come down to 'Make a doc save or lose the game'.

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It's not that I don't believe you, but I was just pointing it out.

quote:

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Originally posted by junichi:
I'm most suspicious of is OGB, then hilikuS.

OGB - No special non mafia role. Has been laying low for the entire game while taking a jab once in awhile. Trying to confuse us that the cop/doctor could be fakes. Possibly going for LA3.

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I don't understand what's confusing about this. If people can claim any role, then the possibility that someone is lying about their role should always be in the back of your mind. Can you explain more how you were confused by this?

Also, can you elaborate what you mean when you say "going for LA3". I've been suspicious of him since R1.

quote:

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Originally posted by thror:

@ OGB - The problem with those two saying 'i have a role but i wont say which' - is that it feels like a cover. They risk claiming a role someone else has, so they just fudge it. I am worried at least one of them is lying.

...

Monty, Juni - I am asking you to name your roles.

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I would like to know as well but we have time thror. I think JUNI is trying to see if MONTY will lie, the problem is that who should we believe if they both claim the same role? Right now I feel as JUNI is being genuine and I'm waiting for what Monty has to say.

quote:

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Originally posted by junichi:
Now here is what I think, at this point, the mafia definitely don't want us to work together as a group, and will try to distract and convince us that the cop/doctor could be fakes. So far, hilikuS, OGB and Gawain all had their doubts on WCFmo and Thror.

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JUN - Regarding what I said about the NK, it clearly was to set me up and the first one to pounce was GAW, so he is whom I am most suspicious of now. This is what he posted after the NK.

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:
Short post for now, longer version to come later tonight once I'm done appeasing my girlfriend in penance for being a jerk last night:

Suspect less than before: Yaku. Will elaborate soon.
Suspect more than before: Junichi (still suspected a lot before though).
New Suspect/s: WCFmo.

I have a laundry list of reasons for all this and it's gonna be a hearty post, so I wanna save it for later when I'll have more time, but I should be back on tonight with a full explanation/post.

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RE: Lying about roles - obviously I think it is possible someone is lying, I know it's not Thror and that's all I know with certainty. Since he's a cit I don't know why he would lie about being the doc.

Yak - what do you think? Who is at the top of your suspect list?

quote:

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Originally posted by OGB:
I don't understand what's confusing about this. If people can claim any role, then the possibility that someone is lying about their role should always be in the back of your mind. Can you explain more how you were confused by this?

Also, can you elaborate what you mean when you say "going for LA3". I've been suspicious of him since R1.

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Here is the thing though, unless a second cop comes out and say WCFmo is a false cop, there is no reason to doubt he isn't real. If there is indeed a "real cop" out there, he would've come out long ago to tell us WCFmo is a phony. Coming out of the gate trying to stir things up is what the mafia would like to do at this moment, and that is exactly what you have been doing since WCFmo revealed his role.

@ WCFmo: Thanks for trusting me, I promise I won't let you down. I do have some doubts about Gawain, but definitely not as high as OGB. However, it is your call, and I will vote for whoever you are voting.

@ All Citizens: WCFmo has the most credibility right now, so I suggest everyone to follow his lead. It would be best if WCFmo can tell us who he is planning to vote for by saturday/sunday morning, so people will have sufficient time to submit their vote.

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

Besides would a mafia player who is mafia quit the game.

My 1st round submission:
No Night Action Performed.
----- Original Message -----
Yakusoku

My 2nd round submission:
Thror made a Night Action.
----- Original Message -----
Thror

My 3rd round submission:
No Night Action Performed.
----- Original Message -----
rayragnarok, thanks.

As you can see, the results I got from Liq has no conflict with what WCFmo have stated, so I am fairly certain WCFmo is the real cop and Thror is the doctor the moment they came out and said what they said.

I have been trying to lure the mafia into claiming as the "real cop", so I can come out and bust their lies, but that plan didn't work so well.

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

yakusoku: JackSpade
LA3: Gawain
Gawain: junichi
LA3: JackSpade
thror: JackSpade
hilikuS: thror
Montague: JackSpade
Gawain: yakusoku
Jazaray: rayragnarok
WCFmo: Jack or ray
OGB: JackSpade
yakusoku: Gawain
junichi: JackSpade
WCFmo: Jazaray

Actual votes (as posted by Liq):

Gawain: yakusoku
hilikuS: thror
JackSpade: yakusoku
Jazaray: rayragnarok
junichi: JackSpade
LA3: thror
Montague: JackSpade
OGB: JackSpade
rayragnarok: JackSpade
thror: JackSpade
WCFmo: Jazaray
yakusoku: Gawain

Discrepancies:

JackSpade never declared his vote.
LA3 changed his vote after declaring (although he posted his reasons after the fact).
rayragnarok never declared his vote.

At this point, I'd like to make the case for my top suspect - rayragnarok.

I stopped doing post counts on page 6. From page 7 and on, no one is quantifiably accountable for the number of posts, except in a vague "hey, this person hasn't posted much" vibe that some of us get. ray definitely fits this vibe and the numbers certainly back it up. Since I stopped counting, he has had FOUR posts. This is where it gets very suspicious:

1 post on page 7
1 post on page 9
1 post on page 10
1 post on page 11

The substance of those posts?

Page 7:

He goes after fwybwed as he's marching off to the gallows:

quote:

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yup fwybwybwybwybwbwed, all of us are wrong and your words are the pinnacle of perfection...

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Page 9:

He justifies the SK kill and goes after Jack:

quote:

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i completely disagree. he was the SK, and given his judgment i'm sure he would have hit a cit.

i'm most suspicious of jack right now. its fine that he was out of town er whatever, but after he returned his posts just didn't feel like they did last game

...

last game he wasn't afraid to draw attention and he was the COP, if he was a cit i don't know why he would be now.

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Page 10:

He addresses buddying and in his posts writes:

quote:

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if a cit thinks that his/her convictions are true then he/she should want the others to vote for the same person as him/her. if he/she is not sure about their convictions then they shouldn't be voting for that person in the first place.

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Finally on page 11:

quote:

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i dont have a role. its good to know that yak and thror are cits. i have to go to work, more later.

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These are all true, but unsubstantial posts that seem to be posting just to post. fwybwed and Jack were popular targets, so he loses nothing by going after them. Saying you should vote for whom you want to vote for is a tautology and doesn't give us any insight about other's voting, his thoughts, or how to progress in the game.

If he has more to say after his Page 11 post, then perhaps it's something, but I expect he'll only post something now that I've pointed a finger in his direction.

"It's good to know that yak and thror are cits."

That is SO helpful. Who is going to argue with that? Who is going to take a counterposition against that? It's a lame post meant to be ignored, except to note that he's got a post on this page, too. He's not 100% silent. He *does* post something. Just not anything significant.

Lastly, he voted for fwybwed and Jack, two easy targets that are easy to get lost in the crowd when he votes that way. The latter, he didn't even declare his vote; he just voted for Jack and so his vote is ignorable, insignificant and forgettable, except that he actually DID submit a vote, technically. So, he's not a non-voter. He's just a secret, dogpile voter.

That makes him my #1 suspect right now.

Next post: my case for my #2 suspect.

EDIT TO ADD: