quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:

You would rather have me out then have a chance to hit mafia... wow....

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You're mixing my arguments.

All things being equal, yes mafia >>>>> SK.

Right now, all things AREN'T equal -> we have a claimed SK. When you have a CLAIMED SK sitting on the table, and this late in a round, killing the claimed SK > then everyone changing their votes last minute and MAYBE (28% chance, remember?) hitting mafia. In addition, hitting a CLAIMED SK also means we AREN'T hitting a town PR.

EDIT: Call that mafia all you want, but it's really not. It's playing it safe so our PRs can stay in the game. If you were town, and not SK, you would know that. I know you want to play as a new role and you think I'm mafia, but you really are just a victim of circumstance here. it's not your fault.

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
Ill be voting rayrag...

Ray is jumpin on the weak ryan analysis right way and following it up with his own.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
Ok yak...its round 1....I want you to tell me what would you expect from a player round one and what type of post would you expect....

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I suspect this person and this person. These are my reasons why...

quote:

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Show me the type of post and post it in post form please lol

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Well...

quote:

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LA3:

These four people have not posted yet

Gawain-first kill of mafia.( Game 12)
Zakman86
Jackspade-cop( mafia game 12)
OGB-mafia confirmed( game 12)

Now I am not saying lighting can't strike twice and people get major roles two games in a row, but again keep an eye on the above four

Jackspade was talkative early in the last game

---

LA3 on page 3 already talks about other players.

quote:

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WCFmo:

I'm not quite sure anyone is 'freaking out.'

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WCFmo talks TO people, not just drops platitudes like "There are people who are repeating." and "Losing both Masons isn't good."

quote:

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OGB:

The only think that I can say is semi-interesting is that JackSpade hasn't posted yet.

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OGB doesn't have to say, "I think JackSpade is a Mafia", but this at least gives us SPECIFIC information to think about.

quote:

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hilikuS:

I wouldn't be surprised, role or not, that he's going for a different approach this game.

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hilikuS gives us a contrary opinion that this is nothing out of the ordinary. Again, this is specific to a person, talking about his status. It's the difference between a psychic who says, "There is going to be a great tragedy in Los Angeles next year." and one who says, "I see someone with an 'S' in his last name who has heart problems."

The second one may be more true, but it's also a useless statement.

quote:

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Zakman86:

I'm going to go with a player by player analysis today

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This is perhaps far more than you need to do, but he talks about players specifically. I not asking for that level of detail, but if you had just said something as simple as, "why isn't yakusoku suspicious of the guy who killed him last game?" that would have contributed far more than what you did with your first two posts.

quote:

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rayragnarok:

if i was to guess who the SK was right now i would have to go with Ryan. he's the only one who seems to care how the SK wins:

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This may have been a wild guess, but at least he's throwing ideas out there. Make guesses, hunches, logical conclusion, whatever, but put YOUR opinion on the game out there. Tell us what you think.

quote:

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junichi:

Anyway, I'm leaning toward Gawain at the moment, and will not change my vote unless something epic happens.

reason:
I never liked the "I was too drunk/busy/internet died and couldn't post" excuse.

---

junichi goes right out there and tells us the person he's most suspicious of. It doesn't have to be written in stone and you don't have to go so far as to say "This person is Mafia", but it's a start and gets others examining certain players for behavior they might not have noticed.

quote:

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JackSpade:

Two Masons getting whacked is a blow to us.

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This, on the other hand, is what NOT to do. Yes, it's bad that both Masons died. Thank you, Captain Obvious. It doesn't help to say that. I don't think there is anyone who suddenly says, "Oh, wow. That really IS bad."

However, he follows that up with:

quote:

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At the moment im a bit suspicious of Ryan. One of his main reasons for his strategy was

---

Then a quote from ryan. A theory plus some evidence. That's one of the best things of all. It gives us all a clear chance to see what you're thinking and either agree or disagree and find weak points in your reasoning. You can't argue with a tautology or self evident truth.

quote:

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thror:

Top suspects:
junichi
RayRagnarok

---

This kind of post is exactly why you're under scrutiny and thror gets far less of it even though you have a comparable number of posts. There's a list of suspects and reasons. And if junichi or ray turn out to be Mafia, so what? This isn't Survivor where your goal is to be the last one standing. We want to beat ALL the Mafia and leave only citizens standing. So, even if we get a one-for-one trade, I will take that any day of the week and twice on Sunday. There are far more of us than there are of them right now, and if talking gets me killed but leads to a Mafia lynch the next day, it was TOTALLY worth it.

I mean that. If I die N1 and the rest of the citizens figure out who my killer is, then I'm happy. I would prefer to stay alive longer than that, but I want Team Citizen to win.

I find it odd that if fwy is really the SK, he would give himself in now. By the way I understand his role, it would be the best for him to hunt mafia now yes, but giving himself away almost guarantees he'll get killed. Whether it be from the mafia, or from a citizen lynch later on. Either side needs him dead. If he's actually the SK, he basically wrote his concession. I'm led to believe that unless he misunderstood how the SK role works, he's bluffing.

My question to fwy would be, since he apparently has the almighty power at his fingertips in the night phase, who do you intend to kill next? Next question would be why?

If he's right, we may have a chance to hit a mafia in the night phase (since he seems like he's willing to help), and even if he's not the SK, the real one might use the same name in order to try and hide.

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
All jibberish...quit defending why you are all WRONG and start trying to actually read posts...

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quote:

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Originally posted by rayragnarok:
yup fwybwybwybwybwbwed, all of us are wrong and your words are the pinnacle of perfection...

---

Im not been personal, but what I am saying is don't question why one has a low post count or has a lack luster post in Round 1... read the post been made, read the people that jump on the early wagon casually...

Why does it have to be this way with all our games, its tiresome.....

Low count or non post = vote

I feel we could be doing so much better but some of these people need to get off their high horse and actually try reading a little.

@Hil'

Id like to try and make to the next round... I cannot give any names if you believe me or have any doubt others here are making a mistake trust it.

• fwybwed - rayragnarok (1)
• Gawain - No Vote Received
• hilikuS - Zakman86 (1)
• JackSpade - yakusoku (1)
• junichi - Gawain (1)
• LA3 - rayragnarok (2)
• Montague - rayragnarok (3)
• OGB - LA3 (1)
• rayragnarok - fwybwed (1)
• ryan2754 - fwybwed (2)
• thror - JackSpade (1)
• WCFmo - fwybwed (3)
• yakusoku - fwybwed (4)
• Zakman86 - thror (1)

The police found traces of blood on fwybwed. They took him away for questioning. A half hour of searching later, a knife showed up. Looks like an open and shut case on this one.

Those with Night Actions, your PMs are needed.

{Summary: fwybwed lynched. Serial Killer}

Ray Votes
FWY
LA3
Monty

Single Votes
GAW - No vote
HILI - ZAK
JACK - YAK
JUN - GAW
OGB - LA3
THROR - JACK
ZAK - THROR

@ Thror - Did you decide against changing your vote to RAY? You know RAY IRL, what do you see that's different this round versus Mafia 11?

@ Ryan - At first you mentioned that the SK was a benefit. Do you believe FWY would have been such a detriment that's the reason you didn't change your vote? That's my assumption based on your post about not changing your vote, considering FWY may have killed a person with a role.

@ GAW - Your last post indicated you were voting for YAK, yet no vote. Oversight?

@ ZAK - I saw your post regarding THROR, the fact is you didn't say exactly why you had decided not to vote for LA3 or me but instead voted THROR.

@ LA3 - Come on man, I think everyone recognized the fact you were trying.

I have to run to right now so I have to cut this short.

quote:

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Originally posted by WCFmo:

@ Ryan - At first you mentioned that the SK was a benefit. Do you believe FWY would have been such a detriment that's the reason you didn't change your vote? That's my assumption based on your post about not changing your vote, considering FWY may have killed a person with a role.

---

Below is what I said:

quote:

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Originally posted by Me:
So this just means the SK, if present, is going to want to get rid of mafia, just like the citizenry, earlier rather than later (because they are like a citizen to the mafia and lose with the citizens). Thus, expect the SK to act pro-town, while also remaining a somewhat low-key profile.

This also means that the mafia aren't going to be particularly worried about finding the SK, unless the SK nabs a few of their members.

---

Junichi then follows up with:

quote:

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Originally posted by junichi:
I believe what Ryan was saying is, the SK is a double-edged sword, and the SK's best interest is to keep the game at an equilibrium state until the final round.

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I even alluded to this on page 3, when I say an SK/vig can be very swingy, and has a decent likelihood of hitting a town PR. In that same post I say:

quote:

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Originally posted by Me:
As of right now, HE'S NOT WORTH WORRYING ABOUT. The SK wants to kill scum right now just like the town. He loses with the town, thus it's in his best interest to scumhunt and kill mafia now, because the more mafia around, the greater their chance of bloc-voting late game, and thus, the SK getting a loss

---

I still stand by this statement. Our first goal should be getting scum. If we happen to catch an SK, and get him to claim, then so be it.

Not once in any of my posts do I say having the SK around is a "benefit," or anything like it. I say he will ACT pro-town because he wants mafia dead, but also wants citizens dead as well (see junichi's post). I also said that we should be looking for mafia and leave the SK matters for later, because eventually he will out himself on his own. It just so happened that our first lynch was that of the SK. Great. It's not as good as hitting mafia, but much better than hitting a town PR, or even a regular cit, as it gives us a few extra rounds. You are twisting my words. After all was said and done, and I thought thoroughly about it after fwy claimed, yes, I would rather have one less NK every night and give the cits a greater chance to win (more rounds, plus fwy not hitting PRs) than have a claimed SK running around killing willy nilly as the wild card.
Do I think fwy in particular may have been a detriment?
Not necessarily.
Do I think an SK in a game with 4 mafia is detrimental?
Yes, because that means we probably have a decent amount of PRs on the cit side, and with 2 (masons already gone). Getting a claim of SK round 1 and lynching him -> the risks of keeping him around outweigh the benefits.

Does that make sense?

I kinda wish Fwy gave us a name for his night phase kill though, I think that would have been helpful.

As much as people dislike his style, I always find his info at least a little useful.

EDIT: I gotta agree with ryan though that he had to go now. Even if he was trying to hunt mafia, and even if his insight is good, he still has better random chance of hitting a citizen with his pick than he does a mafia. Just by sheer probability he would be a problem. Could we have gotten lucky with that? Maybe, but when 2 cits are going down a round, it gets tougher. Essentially the game gets extended a few rounds right then and there. Not to mention what ryan has already eluded to that fwy could have been like, hmm, this guy sounds like he has a role, and he ends up doc or cop, or roleblocker or what have you. Lots of roles in the game. I definitely agree that the bad outweighs the good.
__________________
Originally posted by Gawain:
Have you HAD gravy???

i am willing to let by gones be bygones and play. As long as you respect how i play regardless of my style.

With most of the officers gone and a suspect in custody, we began to pack up in order to return home. However one thing still bothered me. If fwybwed was responsible for both deaths, why was it that they both weren't killed the same way. As if to answer my question the lights again went out.

Everyone stumbled, or at least I assumed they did with all the noise they made, as we made our way to the door. I reached the door only to find it closed. Before I considered opening the door, several bodies smashed into me which left me in a daze and several bodies hitting the floor. Before any of them could get up, the lights returned.

In the haze, I could see a body across the room. He wasn't moving.

"Will someone check on that guy over there." I said pointing to the body while clutching my head.

"Sure." Someone in blue said. "Hey, its ryan2754."

"Is he ok?"

"No."

Players votes due Tuesday at 8 PM. MOTL Time.

{Summary: ryan2754 killed. Status Citizen}

Replacement: Zakman86 has been replaced by Jazaray.

quote:

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@ Thror - Did you decide against changing your vote to RAY? You know RAY IRL, what do you see that's different this round versus Mafia 11?

---

I do know Ray IRL, and can account for most of his absences (wednesday, for example, we were both working - we work together too). Ray was mafia leader last game, and i did follow that one. The problem is (and this is what everyone should be doing), people try to play the SAME game when they are a cit vs when they are mafia. Makes them much harder to pick out. While i do find ray suspicious to an extent, the way Jack acted R1 is much different from last game, and i felt that warranted my vote. Had i changed, there would have been a tie and a coinflip. Removing a SK is probably more important right now, before we lose too many players. There are 12 of us left, and 4 are mafia. That would have given FWY a 1 in 3 chance to hit mafia, and i dont like those odds. We can still lynch Ray if his behavior warrants it.

I actually have this weekend off, so i'll have time to review the last 5 pages and make a real analysis.

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

****ing A!

quote:

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Originally posted by JackSpade:
Isn't that what we're all doing? Can your really claim to be suspicious enough of one person that you're sure they're mafia. Isn't that how a lot of rounds go, with some cit getting lynched because someone was "sure" that they're mafia. I'm reading and rereading stuff trying to find something that pops out at me and then post it to see if anyone has any similar thoughts or reaction, that's how I play.

And LA3, i don't blame you for quitting. Its frustrating to constantly have your playstyle picked apart by anyone who doesn't agree with it. You've all played with LA3 before you know he likes to be quiet early on and is hard to read and you still jump all over him for playing his game. Just let him play his game and stop trying to put him down.

---

My post pointed out that you were latching onto other people's suspicions, not that you can't change who you suspect...that would be ludicrous. Based on your two posts prior to this one you suspected people whose names had been brought up just prior to your post and it feels like you were just voicing other people's thoughts. Fair enough?

I will be afk most of this weekend after I leave work, so you will all have to miss my "macho posts" unless I can steal someone's computer or if I dare trying to post on my phone over the weekend.

Gawain, I like you as a person, and I know drinking > everything, but I do wish you would be a bit more involved in this.

edit: typo

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

As it is dont buy your too drunk/too busy statements, how do we all know your not a mafia member trying to stay silent.

@ogb- are you really busy as gawain, or are you playing the same trick and being slick and only posting in a blue moon. To me excellent mafia move.

quote:

---

Originally posted by LA3:

As it is dont buy your too drunk/too busy statements, how do we all know your not a mafia member trying to stay silent.

---

I'm not sure about everyone else, but I consider that sort of tactic to be underhanded (to say the least). If you're busy you're busy, but I think using that as a play should be frowned upon. Gawain did mention he had his campaign going on the night before the votes were due, so he may have just missed the boat there.

I shouldn't speak for his whereabouts, but as far as using "I'm busy" for some sort of play to draw people off of you. I'm not a fan, and I also don't think that's the case here.

EDIT: Reason being. Lets say you really are busy doing life stuff. If someone uses that as not an excuse, but a tactic, everyone who has to go to work and do real life crap will be scrutinized for saying so. It won't be like "Oh, ok, hilikuS had to go bowling friday night, and forgot to make his vote.", it'll be questioned. That sets a precedent that I really don't agree with. People already get irked enough when they're busy and get suspicion for it. No need to amplify that.

__________________
Originally posted by Gawain:
Have you HAD gravy???

Okay say Gawain is not mafia, is it arguable to say maybe has a role and is choosing not too mention it.

For example if he was the cop, would be beneficial to come out now or hope you survive until the next citzen vote.

I'll buy your theory he's not mafia, but what about OGB.

What if OGB has a role.

Point i'm saying is if you have an important role and you want to stay longer in the game, wouldn't you be a little more quieter than usual.

quote:

---

Originally posted by LA3:
@hilikuS-

Okay say Gawain is not mafia, is it arguable to say maybe has a role and is choosing not too mention it.

For example if he was the cop, would be beneficial to come out now or hope you survive until the next citzen vote.

I'll buy your theory he's not mafia, but what about OGB.

What if OGB has a role.

Point i'm saying is if you have an important role and you want to stay longer in the game, wouldn't you be a little more quieter than usual.

edit-grammer correctness

---

People get lynched/NK for all kinds of reasons: being too quiet, too aggressive, too modest. It is like a "damn if you do, and damn if you don't" kind of situation, so there is no reason to not talk, unless they are afraid to make an error and reveal things they shouldn't have, or they are REALLY REALLY REALLY busy.

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

As for gawain if he is busy and busy as he is i hope he doesn't have a role.

In either case i will wait and see if they and post and if they do what they do post before i pass final judgment

Gawain- not mafia, possible role
OGB-possible role, perhaps mafia for the sake of argument he got lucky being mafia two games in a row

Jazaray/Zakman- lets be honest here only Liq knows if zakman had a role. therefore i am also withholding judgment and saying possible citizen

As to rest fo you, its clsing time at work so i will post the rest of my thoughts when i get home.

I'll agree with you that being quieter could be a tell, and could indicate a player having a role.

For instance, I figured you might have had a role last game, which was why you were checking in periodically and not posting too much until late in the game. That sort of play to me though tells me that you might be pro town to the tune of maybe a doctor, or cop. IMO a mafia could be more active despite having a special role. The mafia want to try and create chaos. You gotta be active to do so.

The one thing I worry about, as I always do, is that when the citizens are going off in the wrong directions, the mafia have no reason to make waves. They would hang back, and they would watch the citizens kill each other. This game has been VERY active. I tend to think that we might be on the right track in finding some mafia, given that just about everybody is involved to some degree.

Granted OGB was quiet and mafia last game, he seems to always be fairly reserved in my experience with him. He's reminiscent of a MM for me where I always find it difficult to read him based on his style.

I'm fairly worried about Jaz taking over for Z86. I had my early hunch on Zakman, which may or may not be justified, but with the player swap, it's always really hard to get a read on that spot at the game table. What I do know about Jaz's style from experience is that she's fairly reserved. She plays well, but to me it seems like she's very picky with what info she puts into letters. I have no reason to think differently about Z86/Jaz's role, but admittedly, I didn't have a lot to go on in the first place.

The other thing is what fwy brought up in his swan song. We got a bunch of singleton votes (myself included). I know my reasoning for voting Zakman86, which I chalked up to him buddying me, but would like to hear from the singleton voters as to why they voted. With specifics. It will most likely be rehashed posts at that point, but I feel like that's a good place to start as far as mob hunting.

EDIT: If I had to make a suspicion list, It would go something like this:

High:
Zak/Jaz (from the previous round)
junichi (he seems to be a bit anxious to me)

Medium:
Spade (he's got a completely different game going this time from my perspective)

Low/feeling town vibes:
Monty (Again this game, I feel like Monty's posts tell me he's a citizen, I can't really explain it, but the way I read them, I feel as though he's town)
yaku (His playstyle is just like last game, although he seems to have augmented it a bit. I think this is yaku's evolution as a player, and not a tell however. I trust yaku)