quote:

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Originally posted by yakusoku:
Declared votes (must use the word "vote" or "voting") in chronological posted order:

yakusoku: JackSpade
LA3: Gawain
Gawain: junichi
LA3: JackSpade
thror: JackSpade
hilikuS: thror
Montague: JackSpade
Gawain: yakusoku
Jazaray: rayragnarok
WCFmo: Jack or ray
OGB: JackSpade
yakusoku: Gawain
junichi: JackSpade
WCFmo: Jazaray

Actual votes (as posted by Liq):

Gawain: yakusoku
hilikuS: thror
JackSpade: yakusoku
Jazaray: rayragnarok
junichi: JackSpade
LA3: thror
Montague: JackSpade
OGB: JackSpade
rayragnarok: JackSpade
thror: JackSpade
WCFmo: Jazaray
yakusoku: Gawain

Discrepancies:

JackSpade never declared his vote.
LA3 changed his vote after declaring (although he posted his reasons after the fact).
rayragnarok never declared his vote.

At this point, I'd like to make the case for my top suspect - rayragnarok.

I stopped doing post counts on page 6. From page 7 and on, no one is quantifiably accountable for the number of posts, except in a vague "hey, this person hasn't posted much" vibe that some of us get. ray definitely fits this vibe and the numbers certainly back it up. Since I stopped counting, he has had FOUR posts. This is where it gets very suspicious:

1 post on page 7
1 post on page 9
1 post on page 10
1 post on page 11

The substance of those posts?

Page 7:

He goes after fwybwed as he's marching off to the gallows:

Page 9:

He justifies the SK kill and goes after Jack:

Page 10:

He addresses buddying and in his posts writes:

Finally on page 11:

These are all true, but unsubstantial posts that seem to be posting just to post. fwybwed and Jack were popular targets, so he loses nothing by going after them. Saying you should vote for whom you want to vote for is a tautology and doesn't give us any insight about other's voting, his thoughts, or how to progress in the game.

If he has more to say after his Page 11 post, then perhaps it's something, but I expect he'll only post something now that I've pointed a finger in his direction.

"It's good to know that yak and thror are cits."

That is SO helpful. Who is going to argue with that? Who is going to take a counterposition against that? It's a lame post meant to be ignored, except to note that he's got a post on this page, too. He's not 100% silent. He *does* post something. Just not anything significant.

Lastly, he voted for fwybwed and Jack, two easy targets that are easy to get lost in the crowd when he votes that way. The latter, he didn't even declare his vote; he just voted for Jack and so his vote is ignorable, insignificant and forgettable, except that he actually DID submit a vote, technically. So, he's not a non-voter. He's just a secret, dogpile voter.

That makes him my #1 suspect right now.

Next post: my case for my #2 suspect.

EDIT TO ADD:

Only the Mafia leader counts as a night action, right? So, that doesn't mean that ray is NOT Mafia, only that he's not the boss?

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__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

An aside to Liq: How does the mafia Ninja do anything? "if the target of watcher/tracker, no info is given" If he's the ninja, he doesn't have a night action, so the tracker wouldn't get info. And the watcher knows hes' the ninja, so he wouldn't even be targeted........ ????????

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

quote:

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Originally posted by junichi:
Here is the thing though, unless a second cop comes out and say WCFmo is a false cop, there is no reason to doubt he isn't real. If there is indeed a "real cop" out there, he would've come out long ago to tell us WCFmo is a phony. Coming out of the gate trying to stir things up is what the mafia would like to do at this moment, and that is exactly what you have been doing since WCFmo revealed his role.

@ WCFmo: Thanks for trusting me, I promise I won't let you down. I do have some doubts about Gawain, but definitely not as high as OGB. However, it is your call, and I will vote for whoever you are voting.

@ All Citizens: WCFmo has the most credibility right now, so I suggest everyone to follow his lead. It would be best if WCFmo can tell us who he is planning to vote for by saturday/sunday morning, so people will have sufficient time to submit their vote.

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JUNI - Monty revealed he was the 3rd mason, what's your role? Also, before I decide who to vote for I need to reread the thread.

Nevermind, looks like I got sanarth'd

quote:

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Originally posted by junichi:
Just saw the Monty post after I posted mine. I am the Tracker, and here are my findings:

My 1st round submission:
No Night Action Performed.
----- Original Message -----
Yakusoku

My 2nd round submission:
Thror made a Night Action.
----- Original Message -----
Thror

My 3rd round submission:
No Night Action Performed.
----- Original Message -----
rayragnarok, thanks.

As you can see, the results I got from Liq has no conflict with what WCFmo have stated, so I am fairly certain WCFmo is the real cop and Thror is the doctor the moment they came out and said what they said.

I have been trying to lure the mafia into claiming as the "real cop", so I can come out and bust their lies, but that plan didn't work so well.

---

Also, this just sounds funny "Thror made a Night Action." I do remember a little back and forth between you and thror early in the game (maybe that's why you picked him second), did you not believe him to be mafia (I guess he would have to be the mafia leader) after that? Statistically I think it is more probable that you hit a person with a night action that would mean they are a cit player role. IDK, just curious as to your reasoning.

Here are a few reasons I suspect GAW
- He had suspicions of ryan and yak early in the game and he is admittedly out of character since the beginning.

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:
Alright guys....I'm sorry I've been so quiet lately, I know it's massively out of character for me.
...

So, sorry about the absence, will do my best to rectify from here on in.

Suspect: Yaku
Mild Suspicion: Ryan

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He then 'accidentally' misses a vote, which I think is a great double bluff, but I don't think it worked this time.

...

@ YAK - I think thror mentioned something about him being busy lately, that could explain his post counts. IDK, I have to get back to work right now, but I will try to go into more detail later tonight or tomorrow (dinner with gf tonight after work).

quote:

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Originally posted by thror:
An aside to Liq: How does the mafia Ninja do anything? "if the target of watcher/tracker, no info is given" If he's the ninja, he doesn't have a night action, so the tracker wouldn't get info. And the watcher knows hes' the ninja, so he wouldn't even be targeted........ ????????

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The Ninja doesn't do anything. However if we get enough players, we may end up with 2 Mafia teams.

quote:

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Originally posted by WCFmo:

Also, this just sounds funny "Thror made a Night Action." I do remember a little back and forth between you and thror early in the game (maybe that's why you picked him second), did you not believe him to be mafia (I guess he would have to be the mafia leader) after that? Statistically I think it is more probable that you hit a person with a night action that would mean they are a cit player role. IDK, just curious as to your reasoning.

---

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

Confirmed Cit:
Wcfmo (cop), Thror (doc), Yaku (cit, no night actions)
Monty (mason), Juni (tracker)

Ray (no night actions, claimed vanilla cit)

This leaves us with:
Hili, OGB, LA3, GAW.

Obviously, every single one could be a false claim. But again, no other person has claimed doc/cop, so that clears the top3. Nobody else has claimed tracker, but the info he posted could have all been gathered due to posts by other players. It is obviously hard to clear monty, as nobody can back him up right now, and liq never said how many masons there were, though a 3rd wouldn't surprise me.

I think I would just like to vote Hili this round. I will (obviously), save Wcfmo in the night phase, the mafia will then (obviously) kill me. Wcfmo should check Juni, and Juni should check one of OGB, Gaw, LA3, Monty. From there, you guys hopefully get another mafia and continue.

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

Whether I'm being suspicious or not, I find it ridiculous to assume that every player is telling the truth about their role. I too want to win this game, and I can't let stuff like this pass unchecked.

I think it's becoming a convenient thing to believe everyone is telling the truth about their roles. You can lie now, and with just about everybody coming out and going, "I'm this.", there has to be mafia telling you wrong. Who? I don't know, but my point is you can't just assume EVERYBODY is telling truth here...

My apologies if I'm coming off sort of strong here, but I find it kinda crazy the way things are shaking out.

Its quite logical he has a role.

quote:

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Originally posted by thror:
So, assuming everyone so far is telling the truth again.

Confirmed Cit:
Wcfmo (cop), Thror (doc), Yaku (cit, no night actions)
Monty (mason), Juni (tracker)

Ray (no night actions, claimed vanilla cit)

This leaves us with:
Hili, OGB, LA3, GAW.

Obviously, every single one could be a false claim. But again, no other person has claimed doc/cop, so that clears the top3. Nobody else has claimed tracker, but the info he posted could have all been gathered due to posts by other players. It is obviously hard to clear monty, as nobody can back him up right now, and liq never said how many masons there were, though a 3rd wouldn't surprise me.

I think I would just like to vote Hili this round. I will (obviously), save Wcfmo in the night phase, the mafia will then (obviously) kill me. Wcfmo should check Juni, and Juni should check one of OGB, Gaw, LA3, Monty. From there, you guys hopefully get another mafia and continue.

---

I agree with everything you said, but we do need a consensus target from the 3 confirmed cits (you, yaku, and WCFmo), and it would be great if you guys can come up with a name ASAP.

edit:

quote:

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Originally posted by hilikuS:
If all I have to do to change your mind is admit I'm a citizen, then yes I am.

Whether I'm being suspicious or not, I find it ridiculous to assume that every player is telling the truth about their role. I too want to win this game, and I can't let stuff like this pass unchecked.

I think it's becoming a convenient thing to believe everyone is telling the truth about their roles. You can lie now, and with just about everybody coming out and going, "I'm this.", there has to be mafia telling you wrong. Who? I don't know, but my point is you can't just assume EVERYBODY is telling truth here...

My apologies if I'm coming off sort of strong here, but I find it kinda crazy the way things are shaking out.

---

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

If i had a motive to lie and steer anyone i would have done long before this next citizen vote. I have nothing to gain except to have evryone vote for me.

If a mafia would wanna win at this point he would revisit a previous post and then try and twist it.

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

quote:

---

So, assuming everyone so far is telling the truth again.

Confirmed Cit:
Wcfmo (cop), Thror (doc), Yaku (cit, no night actions)
Monty (mason), Juni (tracker)

Ray (no night actions, claimed vanilla cit)

This leaves us with:
Hili, OGB, LA3, GAW.

---

I have two problems with assuming Ray is a citizen.

1) If he is Mafia, he's going to lie and say he is a citizen.
2) He didn't actually say he's a Citizen. He just said:

quote:

---

rayragnarok:

i dont have a role.

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I think he meant that he doesn't have a special role, which I believe. He had to say that since he knows he doesn't have a special role and everyone WITH special roles who are Citizens have been coming forward. He hasn't taken any night action, but that still means he can either be a Citizen or a Mafia, with no special roles.

I am still very adamant that he's the #1 suspect right now for being a Mafia.

My #2 is OGB.

His post count is far less incriminating, but after I dropped the post count, he posted 0 posts on page 7, 3 on page 8, 1 on page 9, 0 on page 10, and 3 on page 11.

Since page 6, here's what he's posted:

Twice he asks LA3 why he's Mafia.
He asks Jazaray to post.
He declares his vote for Jack.
He notes that LA3 forgot to mention that Mafia are allowed to lie about their roles.
He thinks that LA3 is hiding.

quote:

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My stance right now is to not believe anyone at this point, so everyone left is effectively on my suspicion list.

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I think it's foolish to assume everyone is telling the truth, but it's also suspicious that he takes the extreme counter position that no one can be ruled out. If we assume that thror and WCFmo are telling the truth, that also rules me out and suddenly the list becomes much smaller, and includes him. I think he's trying to stir up confusion here and say that we shouldn't narrow down our list, because if we all randomly choose someone, that's better for the Mafia than to rule out people who are almost certainly Citizens.

quote:

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Lastly, the other thing to remember is that it's possible that we don't have a Cop or a Doctor, as Liq listed those roles as "possibly assigned" on Page 1.

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This is possible, but the chances that we have neither a Cop nor a Doctor AND that two Mafia were so bold as to both claim these roles seems ludicrous to me. That takes some steel ones to risk half of your team out there on the odds that Liq assigned neither of these two roles AND it's okay to declare them right away and the real Cop or Doctor won't come out.

Or, OGB is lying through his teeth and trying to widen, rather than narrow the pool of suspects.

His arguments also quickly fall apart:

quote:

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junichi - asks Monty to reveal his role to avoid hiding information, but then doesn't reveal his role himself.

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Now that junichi has come out (whether he's honest or not), this casts doubt on this possibility, too.

So, now we are to believe that thror, WCFmo AND junichi are all Mafia who have conspired to lie about their roles on the basis that none of these roles were assigned?

When junichi puts the spotlight on OGB, his first response is:

quote:

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I don't understand what's confusing about this. If people can claim any role, then the possibility that someone is lying about their role should always be in the back of your mind.

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Now, I ask:

Which is more likely?

A) thror, WCFmo, and junichi are telling the truth (or at least 2/3 of them are) and we have three or four confirmed Citizens, leaving OGB on the short list.

-or-

B) The four Mafia - thror, WCFmo, junichi, and LA3 (OGB's favorite suspect) are all the best Mafia ever, deducing all the roles that were assigned and then three of them lie about their roles, while LA3 tries to hide.

This doesn't exonerate LA3, BTW, but I think all of this puts OGB as a solid #2, IMO.

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

quote:

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Originally posted by rayragnarok:

i'm most suspicious of jack right now. its fine that he was out of town er whatever, but after he returned his posts just didn't feel like they did last game, i know that how people are going to play will vary a bit game from game if they are growing as a player, as they should, but to me he sounds like he's a different person.
last game he wasn't afraid to draw attention and he was the COP, if he was a cit i don't know why he would be now.

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i said that i was most suspicious of jack and i didn't say nor suggest that i had changed my mind in anyway between then and the vote. if you need me to make a capitalize and bold voting tag for you every round for you because drawing a line form A to B is to hard then i will gladly.
also i was on the Jack pile before it was big, if anyone was hiding in it it would have been one of the last people to hop on.

i am most suspicious of monty and Gaw. i don't think that everyone is telling the truth about their roles, but i do think that we have to believe WCFmo and Thror or we will lose regardless. out of all of them i think monty is the one most likely yo be lying about his role.

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:
Either Thror is lying about being the Doc, WCFmo is lying about being the Cop, or both. I'm leaning towards WCFmo, since he didn't bother to state the actual roles of the individuals he has supposedly checked.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by rayragnarok:

i said that i was most suspicious of jack and i didn't say nor suggest that i had changed my mind in anyway between then and the vote. if you need me to make a capitalize and bold voting tag for you every round for you because drawing a line form A to B is to hard then i will gladly.

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Why the condescending attitude? You actually did NOT make it as clear as other people. Yes, I would like you to actually say, "I'm voting for ray." or "I'm tentatively voting for ray/I'm thinking about voting for ray/He's the person I suspect most, so I'm voting for him, barring any new revealing posts."

You can disagree with my conclusions in a way that's less insulting, without treating me like a child.

"When I say 'i'm most suspicious of jack right now', I assume it was clear to everyone that's how I was voting."

That's a reasonable position, and said in a less offensive tone. I'd retract that part of my argument after that kind of response.

I'm going to offer what I can in terms of assessment, but I fear at this point that I've lost all goddamned credibility and no one is going to listen to me anyway. Such is the way of things I suppose.

I've now backed off of my suspicion of Yakusoku completely. He's either a Cit, or the smoothest mafioso ever, but his most recent posts lead me to believe that he's a genuine scumhunter.

I feel like there is a LOT of lying going on right now regarding roles, but what ****s me up is that I can't discern WHO is lying. I seems so completely unlikely that we have neither a Cop nor a Doctor that I don't even want to surmise along those lines, but damn, WCFmo, Thror, and Junichi got the mad crazy buddy vibes going on right now, and it's killing me. Bad. I'm not even going to begin to claim that I think all three of them are Mafia, but think about this....if we lacked a Cop OR a Doctor, Junichi could claim Tracker and one of the others could claim one or the other of the roles, and since there are SO damned many roles this game, there would be decent odds of pulling the damned thing off.

*sigh*

I feel like an old dog trying to learn a new trick, with all these ****ing roles that I'm not even remotely familiar with; Cop, Doctor, and Mafia, these were things I learned how to pick up signs for. Now I got like 5 times as many tells to pick up, and on top of that, I have to try to discern who is lying about what role, when, and why. This is horse ****.

You guys probably all think I'm scum at this point, and fair enough...I've played an OOC game and I know it, but my life has changed SIGNIFICANTLY since the last time I played Mafia, so I just don't have any damned time anymore. Point is, these are my top suspects right now, and you can glean from that what you will:

WCFmo
Thror
Junichi

Gaw is Mafia, leave him for the next Lynch imo. He isn't that dumb.
Would still like to vote OGB for this lynch.

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:

I've now backed off of my suspicion of Yakusoku completely. He's either a Cit, or the smoothest mafioso ever, but his most recent posts lead me to believe that he's a genuine scumhunter.

...

I feel like there is a LOT of lying going on right now regarding roles, but what ****s me up is that I can't discern WHO is lying. I seems so completely unlikely that we have neither a Cop nor a Doctor that I don't even want to surmise along those lines, but damn, WCFmo, Thror, and Junichi got the mad crazy buddy vibes going on right now, and it's killing me. Bad.

I'm not even going to begin to claim that I think all three of them are Mafia...

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Does anyone else note that he basically calls out the majority of people (if everyone is telling the truth) that are confirmeds? Is this a suicide play? I'm not sure what about Yak's last post is different than his other posts.

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:

Junichi tunneled my ass all game and then backed off, WCFmo has been STUPIDLY aggressive this game for a Cop, and Thror has been completely unreadable all game until he chose to polarize himself after the last night kill. This is my call as the Mafia team, and if I'm wrong then so be it, but that's what I got. Sorry I've been lame this game guys, it was definitely not my intention :/

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Here he mentions that JUNI was tunnelling him all game and letting up, but at the same time he tunneled YAK all game and let up. I'm aggressive, that's how I play and no where for me to look more suspicious than to play passively and get lynched by the mafia when they find out or killed by the cits b/c I'm playing out of character.

@ Thror - if GAW is mafia, why should we leave him for next round? IF (big IF here) OGB is not mafia then we've lost. If we vote off a mafia now we still get to play. We can't afford to let any mafia live right now.

I started up a long summary post of all the stuff that happened this round, I still have yet to finish it I can post it half finished or wait till tomorrow, your call.

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

quote:

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Originally posted by junichi:
If Gawain is mafia, then there is no doubt OGB is as well. Me, thror, and yaku were both leaning toward voting OGB, and if he is a cit, then there is no reason for Gawain to come out and stir things up even more.

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Yeah I saw that, the only reason I mention it is that everyone has mentioned it (part of my big ass post covers this). Either he is getting thrown under the bus (to save rest of mafia) or he's being wagon'd. I think all of us have our own top suspects b/c me yak and thror (me = GAW, YAK = RAY, THROR = HILI, correct me if that's wrong). We can't all agree on who are mafia, possibly all 4 including OGB but it just seems a bit too easy for me. IDK, yak what are your thoughts?

Those of you who actually ARE Cits, use your heads. Analyze my behavior. I might have been ridiculous this game, but FIND me a scumbag who acts this way. Further, think back to previous games you've played with me...have I EVER acted this way, whether scum or otherwise? And if I WERE scum, would I do so?

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:
Yeah, 'cause I'm so totally bus material.

Those of you who actually ARE Cits, use your heads. Analyze my behavior. I might have been ridiculous this game, but FIND me a scumbag who acts this way. Further, think back to previous games you've played with me...have I EVER acted this way, whether scum or otherwise? And if I WERE scum, would I do so?

Search your feelings young Jedi, somethin' ain't right.

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__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?