i am prolly voting for someone on this list because they haven't actually helped, and in this game if your not helping your hurting:
fwybwed
Gawain
LA3
Montague
OGB
JackSpade [only if he posts between now and the dead line]

Two Masons getting whacked is a blow to us. At the moment im a bit suspicious of Ryan. One of his main reasons for his strategy was

quote:

---

Originally posted by ryan2754:

1.) It lets us know that we are NOT dealing with an SK, can much of the current debate can be averted.

---

And yet you posting this set off this exact debate. People spend the majority of the page posting about it. The fact that you are asking the Vig to reveal themselves also seems a bit suspicious. The Vig is out there and reading all of our posts/suggestions so what advantage would them revealing gain us? It seems like it would just put a target on their back. I just don't know if you're just putting an idea out there or if you are intentionally trying to send us on a wild goose chase. And im going to have to agree with Junichi in that it will be clear what roll we are dealing with as soon as the next night phase ends.

Still waiting on Gawain's post, not sure what morning he was talking about.

option A they could be mafia-remember if there are 4 mafia, having 2 stay silent is a good ploy

Option B They could have been given a special role

Fact 1 -They can't be masons because MM and BernieB were

One of em could have one of teh special roles,a nd with the first round being a crapshoot could choose to stay silent nto to give any information

Odd of JackSpade being cop is nil as i doubt he would get two games ina row. (possible other role)

gawain's post

Oh GOD, the game has started with a vengeance, and I'm woefully behind! Drunk/late/worked all night right now, but I got the next two days off. I'll post something worthwhile on the morrow, and no worries, it ain't gonna be an LA3 style "promise."

Is iffy at best, Liq posted first kill at this time

November 07, 2010 11:06 AM

Gawain unless you have a get by job i don't buy your statement.

Top suspects:
junichi - early game felt like buddying up to me, going after gawain for in character behavior seems like throwing a random vote out there to get out of a mafia pile.
RayRagnarok - the back/forth with ryan feels a little more forced than normal from ray. from his first few games, I think he's learned that when you get into a little fight with someone and then back off, people give you a pass as a helpful/overeager cit. Not that this can't be the case, but I see pattern here.

Listing everyone else in order of suspicion is fairly useless right now. I've only listed 2 suspects, so even if they are both mafia, the rest of them don't know where they lie on my list. And if my suspects are both cits and then end up dead, they don't know who else to push me toward. So for now, I am tentatively voting one of these 2 players.

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

Jack, my posting about the Vig coming out did not spark the debate. What sparked the debate was WCFmo asking who people thought the mafia and then the SK killed, Bernie or MM. If we have a vig, I asked him to come out because it eliminates a few variables, that's it.

My idea was to throw out a method to END the wild goose chase (i.e. continually discussing who killed who, because right now I find it pointless [wcfmo disagrees, but yeah, it's more game theory]). Like I said, highly doubt there is a Vig, but if there is, I asked him to come out. Clearly not going to do it (or there isn't one), but it was an idea because we gain information, lose a few variables, and end the wild goose chase.

I'm done talking about it. The vig will do as he sees fit at this point if he's in the game.

LA3, that is definitely better than what you usually do. The only issue is that if Gawain were mafia, I feel like he would not be silent at all, strictly for the reason that he is normally active. Seems too off.

As to what thror has posted, I kind of feel like Ray came on a little hard as well. Again, it's just a gut feeling, but he backed off REALLY quickly.

Everyone, do you see what we have? This may be the most active first round on MOTL in a while. Defenses, buddying, accusing, bussing, it's good stuff. Tomorrow I will probably get a re-read and see if anything else noticeable comes out of it.

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

quote:

---

Originally posted by WCFmo:
What exactly doesn't sit right with you?

Also, I call schenanigans on this --> http://classic.magictraders.com/ubb/Forum12/HTML/016880.html all of us played MOTL Salvation, remember? Though Jun was the first NK in that game, ryan lasted a while and was the vigilant (PSTullio or somehing in MOTLSalvation).

---

I don't count MOTL Salvation as a true game, because nobody really gave a crap about it.

When it comes to WCF, it's not something i can really 100% place my finger on, but I feel like he's kind of herding people right now towards an assumption, especially with the speculation of the Vig/SK thing. I think at the moment it's difficult to speculate until we get another round in and can actually analyze the second set of NKs. (assuming we have multiple NKs again).

When it comes to LA3, A) I don't like his play style and B) I don't like that he specifically posted not to lynch him... he talks about getting better but he plays the same way every game. It's kind of old.

So, I read through the whole thread, and though I couldn't glean info from everything, there were a few things that jumped out at me. First and foremost, this:

quote:

---

Originally posted by yakusoku:
Post count (including this one):

fwybwed: 1
LA3: 1
rayragnarok: 3
WCFmo: 1
yakusoku: 1

Is this a facetious comment? Sarcasm is very difficult to read over the internet sometimes. 4 Mafia with 14 players = less than 30% chance to get a Mafia randomly. That's like playing Craps and betting on a 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 not coming. Combine that with the Mafia working together, and our chances actually go down from there.

We might up our percentage a bit based on round one comments, but the first round is usually a shot in the dark. We might get lucky, but in most games, citizens usually lynch another citizen round one and the Mafia get another free kill.

If you meant that we should easily be able to get one during the course of the game, then I should certainly hope so.

Our odds for a Mafia lynch this round: 1 - (10/14) = 28.6%

Our odds for two rounds (assuming one day citizen lynch + one night Mafia kill): 1 - (10/14 * 8/12) = 52.4%

Our odds for two rounds (assuming one day kill + one night Mafia kill + one other role kill): 1 - (10/14 * 7/11) = 54.5%

Our odds for three rounds (assuming two day kills + two night Mafia kills): 1 - (10/14 * 8/12 * 6/10) = 71.4%

Our odds for three rounds (assuming two day kills + 4 night kills): 1 - (10/14 * 7/11 * 4/8) = 77.3%

All of this still doesn't account for the cop revealing information, the doctor saving someone, the bomb killing someone who does a NK, or a roleblocker stopping a kill, which all increase our chances.

With so few posts so far, I have no theories, crazy or otherwise.

---

Seems to me that Yaku was a Cit last round, and though he as inclined to always post the post count, and lots of info, he did two things last game that were different from this:

1) The info he posted was not in the from of equations and tons of other boring math; this feels like a smoke screen to me. I took one look at all those numbers and immediately lost interest. I feel like that was his intention.

2) He posted a LOT more. I know it seems hypocritical of me to say this, but I have seen nary a thing from Yaku since page 2, or maybe early, early page 3. He threw out some (boring and seemingly useless) info, then disappeared. Doesn't sit right with me.

The other post that hit me in the gut was RayRag's post regarding Ryan's intentions when he asked such pointed questions about the role of Vigilante; I don't think Ryan is the sort of player who would be shy about being open and vocal even if he did have a role, whether pro-town or otherwise, and I think RR had some valid points. I'll pull up the quote if need be, just kinda drunk right now and don't feel like digging for it. Anyone wants it let me know, but I'm pretty sure you guys know what I'm talking about.

And to that end, anyone who is saying I'm likely scum because I'm being "quiet" is way off course. I'm NEVER quiet unless RL gives me cause, and all of you who have played with me over the course of several games know this. I know the MOTL Salvation game was a "spoof" game and some who played it didn't take it seriously, but I was a baddie that game and took it quite seriously; Tranderas and OGB can attest to that. And whilst being a baddie, I posted quite a few very long and in depth messages to the populace of MOTL, with no fear of being ousted for my Trollness; vocal is my way, regardless of role.

So, sorry about the absence, will do my best to rectify from here on in.

Suspect: Yaku
Mild Suspicion: Ryan

P.S. Even if Ryan has a role, he's worth keeping around for a few rounds just for the sheer amount of info he throws out; given the number of roles and the possibility of 2 NK's per round, he might need to be lynched a hair earlier than usual, but not this round I think.

quote:

---

Originally posted by ryan2754:

Hili, can you point out what I have said that is buddying in your mind?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by ryan2754:

Pro-town vibes (Gut, so take with grain of salt, mainly a placeholder):
Monty
Hili
thror
OGB

---

Like I said, not a strong suspicion, but basically the way I see it, I feel like I'm always getting suspected early on, so seeing something like this threw up a red flag.

__________________
Originally posted by Gawain:
Have you HAD gravy???

LA3 - I remember that Liq adamantly posted in a game a while back about all the roles being randomly assigned (I don't remember 100%, but I believe there were some people who accused him of favoring giving MM a role because he only likes to play that way). So I don't think you can definitively say that the odds of Jack being the cop this game are zero, based on last game: they are two independent events. Last game, Jack was vocal early and then disappeared in R2, which gave me a pretty good read that he had a role. His absense in R1 this game makes me think the same thing, although he claims he was out of town, and HILI makes a good point about adapting play style from game to game. He , meaning Jack, is currently medium suspicion.

Gawain: I don't share your suspicion of yaku in regards to his "math" post. He was merely trying to provide some concrete evidence for defending against FWY's post (facetious or not). I think he has a point here, actually, and is making sure the cits don't get too complacent just because there is an extra mafia this round, that it would be easier to catch one. I think your suspicion based on this is a bit of a reach.

Ryan: I'm still trying to wrap my head around why the Vig should come out (I've yet to play a game with a Vig or SK, so it may just be the game theory that's throwing me), so I'll have to go back and re-read your posts again where you lay out the reasoning.

As for the other players, nothing seems too out-of-the-ordinary. WCF and Ray have been the most vocal, and while WCF has been a bit defensive in my opinion, it seems to be how they always play.

Other random notes:
-I do get the buddying-up vibe from junichi, especially with the smiley faces in his posts (call me crazy)
-where is FWY? He hasn't stirred the pot as much as he has in past games thusfar.

quote:

---

Originally posted by ryan2754:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by WCFmo:
Returning to my discussion above, here you are asking the VIG to come out when we have little info while simultaneously complaining that I am trying to get info.

---

Not sure what you mean. Can you reexplain the above statement.

[/QUOTE]

You said this

quote:

---

Originally posted by ryan2754:

- WCFmo mentions trying to figure out who killed who, which is a whole bunch of OMGUS and irrelevant speculation at this point in the game. Can't tell if this is genuine or scum-oriented.

---

Not sure if the OMGUS and irrelevant speculation is referenced towards to my questions regarding the NK...but if the VIG comes out, we didn't have a whole lot of info, in essence we would have 2 lynches based on little information. It just seemed odd you complained that I was talking and trying to dicuss and at the same time you wanted the vig to come out. If the VIG came out you wanted to have a 2nd town vote almost, and the only chance that we have is information...stifling information would be bad, right? IDK, I just thought it was ironic.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Zakman86:
I don't count MOTL Salvation as a true game, because nobody really gave a crap about it.

---

Or you could just admit you were wrong? Didn't you use a similar reason last game to justify your vote for JACK? Regarding LA3, I think he is trying, his last posts are making more effort. You say "he talks about getting better but he plays the same way every game," but didn't you see his last post?

Re: YAKU - anyone seen him on line? His posting last round was more consistent. He runs the Vanishing 4 Card Blind, and he always makes a post the day before decks are due, then he will be online today if he does. @ OGB - maybe yak is right about getting the people to talk more, but that can't mean he drops off the map too.

bigger potential gain and lower potential loss.

+ i worried that ryan took it a bit personally, getting in a fight with WFCmo last game did much more good for me [the mafia] then it did the town, if anything it seemed to make everyone else ignore the fact that i killed the cop more. i just wanted to get the idea out there, hopefully now people will read hiw posts more closely and soon enough they will see what i mean. "you can bring a horse to water etc."

that being said i've narrowed my list to:
fwybwed
LA3
Montague
JackSpade

After reading thru what has been said so far, there are 2 things that jump out to me.

First, It seems like I am re-reading the same thing over and over. OGB's first post was just plagarism from the posts before his. Ray's post about letting me, Gaw, and OGB slide for later contributions stood out to me because it was copied from Thror, who posted it earlier. This wouldnt be odd to me, except I think I have played quite a bit with Thror, but I don't remember playing many games with Ray so he really probally doesnt know much about me.

Second, Obviously Ryan calling the Possible Vig out seems to be a big deal. MY opinion on the matter: I think that it would be a bad idea to come out if you are a vig. I think it was a bad idea for ryan to call the vig out. I do not think it is any more suspicious of Ryan for calling him out. I am against voting out all of the talkative players early.. Most of the time they only look suspicious because of the amount they are posting, not because of what they are saying.

I'm not sure how "agreeing people should talk more and post their thoughts" and having a "smiley face" equals buddy-up!? If agreeing to something that is right means buddy-up, than I'm guilty as charged.

* Now with that rolleyes emo, what kind of vibe did I give out? *

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

quote:

---

Originally posted by junichi:

* Now with that rolleyes emo, what kind of vibe did I give out? *

---

Eye-roll means you have something to hide, obviously.

fwybwed: 1
Gawain: 2
hilikuS: 7
JackSpade: 1
junichi: 6
LA3: 6
Montague: 1
OGB: 2
rayragnarok: 7
ryan2754: 5
thror: 3
WCFmo: 6
yakusoku: 3
Zakman86: 3

Sorry for dropping off the map. I have been gone from the online world for over 24 hours. Sorry.

Long story short (yeah, yeah, unusual for me): Tuesday was a "furlough day" for me at work - we're required to take 8 unpaid days off in November and December as part of cost cutting.

I took my day off to address IRL stuff and so, I didn't touch a computer until now.

Let me address the stuff directed to me or about me before other analysis:

quote:

---

Gawain:

The info he posted was not in the from of equations and tons of other boring math; this feels like a smoke screen to me. I took one look at all those numbers and immediately lost interest. I feel like that was his intention.

---

I'll do my best to dumb down my posts from now on, I guess.

quote:

---

yakusoku:

4 Mafia and 14 players left doesn't make it a lock that we'll nab at least one. Proof of this is left as an exercise for the reader.

---

quote:

---

He posted a LOT more. I know it seems hypocritical of me to say this, but I have seen nary a thing from Yaku since page 2, or maybe early, early page 3. He threw out some (boring and seemingly useless) info, then disappeared. Doesn't sit right with me.

---

I forget that math bores or irritates most people. I'll refrain from including it in the future. I often forget that others don't enjoy it nearly as much as I do.

quote:

---

WCFmo:

YAKU - anyone seen him on line?

---

No posts from me all day yesterday. I haven't even checked my e-mail or seen how my eBay auctions are doing yet. I got a bunch of entries into the V4CB tournament, but didn't update it until this morning, as well as posting my weekly reminder to submit.

quote:

---

His posting last round was more consistent.

---

I would really warn against drawing conclusions from one data point (Tuesday). I have no posts Tuesday, but I'm back.

quote:

---

maybe yak is right about getting the people to talk more, but that can't mean he drops off the map too.

---

I still had one day without posts. Montague has dropped off, as has fwybwed, despite my post to him, which I'd still like him to answer if that was an attempt at dry, sarcastic wit or the result of bad math. My next day off, I'll drop by a Starbucks to post.

quote:

---

Originally posted by yakusoku:

Sorry for dropping off the map. I have been gone from the online world for over 24 hours. Sorry.

...

My next day off, I'll drop by a Starbucks to post.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by yakusoku:

Is this a facetious comment? Sarcasm is very difficult to read over the internet sometimes.

---

fwybwed: 1
Gawain: 2
hilikuS: 7
JackSpade: 1
junichi: 6
LA3: 6
Montague: 1
OGB: 2
rayragnarok: 7
ryan2754: 5
thror: 3
WCFmo: 7
yakusoku: 4
Zakman86: 3

I'm being serious. I do 95+% of my internet navigation from the library, work, friends' places, or public wi-fi spots like Starbucks and McDonald's. I'm still on 56K dial-up at home, which makes it a chore to even open my e-mail (a minute to dial in, 30-60 seconds each page on average, except pages with lots of graphics, including my e-mail home page which may take five or more minutes).

quote:

---

Originally posted by hilikuS:

Like I said, not a strong suspicion, but basically the way I see it, I feel like I'm always getting suspected early on, so seeing something like this threw up a red flag.

---

Again, I haven't played in a while, but I would say you are one of the harder players to read for me. Again, those pro-town vibes were just a placeholder anyway, really. Also, it's been a while since I've played, so I can't remember if I necessarily was one of those that always suspected you early on.

Gawain, so are you saying you agree with Ray's assessment? So you as well are calling me suspicious for imparting my knowledge from previous experience with the SK role? Noted.
Being vocal is the way I play, plain and simple. I am not going to change the way I play if I have a role or not, mainly for 2 reasons.
1.) Me being quiet without a role/being mafia would probably get me lynched.
2.) If I had a role, and was quiet, the mafia would think I am a role.
There is practically no selective advantage for me being quiet.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Gawain:
P.S. Even if Ryan has a role, he's worth keeping around for a few rounds just for the sheer amount of info he throws out; given the number of roles and the possibility of 2 NK's per round, he might need to be lynched a hair earlier than usual, but not this round I think.

---

Gawain, are you lining up my lynch in later rounds?
If your absence wasn't a red-flag, this is.

WCFmo, I got I am not seeing the inclusivity of mine and yours arguments. Again, personally, I find speculation on who killed who to be pointless. Having the vig come out would halt that conversation, because we would know who killed who. And think about it this way: we wouldn't necessarily have to use the second vig kill this round. It would give the doc (if present) a definitive target. There are more pros to it then people are thinking about. However, with junichi revealing that the Sk has to hit every night, it will be clear soon if we are dealing with Sk vs. Vig. Guess I just dont see how it's ironic.

1.) Ray, are you saying theres a bigger potential gain by lynching me vs. a lower potential loss? So you think getting WHO YOU THINK IS THE SK right now is more important than losing a "valuable player?". If so, you are sorely mistaken, not only because you are wrong in your assumption, but also because the SK is trying to eliminate mafia as well, thus doing the town a service. If you want me to go into further specifics, let me know. But you are wrong. Oh, and by the way, in a few of my games, I am frequently searched by the cop if I last more than a few rounds if I am not NKed early, because of my ability to play well as mafia (ask hili).

2.) Also, I know it's a decent amount of WIFOM, but if I were SK, why in the hell would I ask Liq these questions IN GAME? I would absolutely ask them via PM, so as to leave the citizenry without said information. Which makes me think junichi may have slipped up unconsciously when he said "I asked Liq if SK has obligatory kill, and he said yes". Not necessarily saying junichi is SK, but I feel that if I were SK I would ask Liq questions in PMs about my role over in game questions.

3.) On top of that you are saying that the mafia are the bigger threat, but you would still rather get rid of potential SK (since bigger potential gain)? You yourself say we need to bag mafia, and are continuing the discussion about me and my thoughts on the SK. Seems like you are trying to keep this wild goose chase going, rather than doing what you say we should be doing (bagging mafia).

I see a laundry list of discrepancies.

Ray, I never take things personally in this game. It's a game. I love defending myself, especially against poor arguments. It's the main reason I play the game, aside from winning.

So it's pretty unanimous that people think I shouldn't have called out the vig. That's completely fine. But it did do the town a service - it got their opinions on the matter out to the public, which is more than we usually get in first round.

So far I see repetative posts in regards to theory the SK...and a couple that stand out...

So questions to:

@rayragnarok

quote:

---

Originally posted by ray:
i am prolly voting for someone on this list because they haven't actually helped, and in this game if your not helping your hurting:

---

Q: Are you basing this off of your past game as Mafia?

Q: If you are in favor of a silent lynch, knowing that in the previous game both you and OGB had tendencies to speak when needed...Do you think it would be better to look at the ones who have posted thus far.

It is my opinion that the Mafia love silent lynches early in the game because they are a waste of cits... makes me curious of your list and how many of those on it are actual cits hmmm

If In regards to MM been the NK, he hardly posted through out the last game...So what I am thinking is Mafia stems from the previous game. A NK of "point made" LA3 was getting into it with him last game almost to a personal level....thus only if he was the NK not the SK.

quote:

---

Originally posted by yakusoku:

I'll do my best to dumb down my posts from now on, I guess.

I forget that math bores or irritates most people. I'll refrain from including it in the future. I often forget that others don't enjoy it nearly as much as I do.

---

Honestly, it may just be me. I see equations and immediately lose interest. I went back and read them sober, and they made sense, I just felt like they were a bit superfluous (i.e., if I wanted to know those odds I could have figured them out myself pretty quickly). I remember when Liq was mafia, his method of "hiding" was to throw up a lot of smokescreens, and to me, it was a tell. I've never actually played with you, but I got a slightly different vibe from your methods this game vs. last.

And again, as to the math, it may just be me. I HATE math, but others playing this game might not have the same aversion. *shrugs* Do what you want man.

quote:

---

Originally posted by ryan2754:

Gawain, so are you saying you agree with Ray's assessment? So you as well are calling me suspicious for imparting my knowledge from previous experience with the SK role? Noted.
Being vocal is the way I play, plain and simple. I am not going to change the way I play if I have a role or not, mainly for 2 reasons.
1.) Me being quiet without a role/being mafia would probably get me lynched.
2.) If I had a role, and was quiet, the mafia would think I am a role.
There is practically no selective advantage for me being quiet.

Gawain, are you lining up my lynch in later rounds?
If your absence wasn't a red-flag, this is.

---

I am not saying that I find it PARTICULARLY suspicious, merely that the particular quotes Ray lined up made a fair bit of sense when put in that order; it may have just been the selectiveness and removal from context that made them seem that way, or maybe I'm just getting more of a pro-town vibe from Ray this game than I did last. It's still too early to really put my thumb on it.

And I should qualify my statement regarding a Ryan lynch: IF you should have to be or need lynched, it should always wait until later game. As everyone else has said, the talkative players always get lynched early just for being talkative, and that's what I want to avoid. I completely agree that you being silent would make no sense regardless of your role, and I wouldn't want you to be silent anyway, since even as scum you tend to offer up information that the town can use, if they're smart.

And, for what it's worth, I think it's a good idea for the Vig to come out if we have one, but I think it should wait a round. I realize we're at a higher risk of losing the Doc and or the Vig if we wait a round, but if we don't, we'll have more info for them to go on, the Doc will have a definitive target to save from the NK next round, and the Vig might actually be able to get a useful kill, instead of the shot in the dark style killing that slew our other Mason.

Assuming it's the Vig and not the SK, which I think unlikely, but I'm beating a dead horse with that, just thought I'd throw out my thoughts on it since I haven't had a chance yet.

Game summary:

PAGE 2

rayragnarok: first post (of the game), no substantial content; the same post as Mafia 12.

LA3: "I'll post more later" post.

rayragnarok: how many masons left?

WCFmo: assuming two, none are left. One lasted last game

rayragnarok: one mason is no better than a citizen

fwybwed: 4 mafia = cinch to nab at least 1. If there is a vigilante, one more NK

thror: probably a serial killer, NK0 from vigilante is 2nd worst play. Everyone, TALK. No one jumped on

LA3 for talking but saying nothing? Analysis is best done at least a day before votes are due. Jack

came out as cop a few hours before.

yakusoku: fwy, is that a facetious comment? We have less than 30% chance to get one randomly.

LA3: "I'll post more later" post. Don't bandwagon against me

hilikuS: what's the point of that post? I assume we have 4 Mafia and a SK.

junichi: LA3 is acting like a player with a role. thror, I agree.

hilikuS: Just like last game where LA3 was a Mason.

WCFmo: Jack came out less than an hour before. 2 confirmed citizens was still helpful last round.

Shouldn't we discuss who was the SK victim and NK?

yakusoku: I agree; there are probably 4 Mafia and a SK. Mafia tend to go after good, experienced

players. I don't think it's personal. Everyone should post NOW.

junichi: thror made a post

WCFmo: I agree, but if MM was the NK, it's odd. Someone is parroting, "everyone needs to speak."

PAGE 3

Montague: I'm here to post. It's suspicious that everyone's freaking out. I will vote for someone who

is freaking out.

rayragnarok: one mason isn't that much better than a cit. I think MM is the SK death.

ryan2754: probably a SK, probably not a Vig. Probably 0 Masons left. Not worth speculating on SK kill.

Mafia wants a kill with least info and most disinformation => BernieB probably Mafia kill.

yakusoku: I'm not rushing people to post, just post before the lynch. Don't be silent for a long time

and don't post "I'm here, but I don't know. I'll post more later."

LA3: four people have no posts. Keep an eye on them.

ryan: SK wants to get rid of Mafia. If we have a Vig, come out!

junichi: I don't think that is wise; too early to reveal roles. If we get two night kills, then SK.

WCFmo: Not sure anyone is freaking out. LA3, I thought you couldn't post? Vig shouldn't come out.

LA3: Comcast down; I used my blackberry

Gawain: Wow, game has started. I'll post somethign worthwhile tomorrow.

OGB: Ryan, why revel the Vigilante? Mafia would just kill him, forcing him to use his second kill. No posts from JackSpade?

hilikuS: Last time he made too much noise and got lynched as the cop, so he's probably lying low.

ryan: But, if he does have a role, that would clue in Mafia. {notes} If Vig, then we can end the SK/Vig debate, but I doubt there is a Vig. {suspicion list} Vote for WCFmo?

Zakman86: I'll post something tonight.

WCFmo: nothing to gain by outing the Vig. NK is the only significant thing to discuss.

Zakman: {player by player analysis} Suspicious of WCFmo, LA3, thror

hilikuS: If a vote doesn't make sense, I'll say why. Good to get people talking about suspicions.

rayragnarok: ryan is my beset guess for SK.

WCFmo: what doesn't sit right with you? Also, this is not the first game Zak played with ryan.

junichi: leaning toward Gawain - don't like the too drunk, busy, internet died excuse.

hilikuS: Gawain always has a crazy story. Voting for Z86 for buddying.

thror: {what we DO know}, {probably assumptions} drunken post doesn't mean Gawain is Mafia.

LA3: I'm always a target, but how do I get better? Cut me some slack.

ryan: We shold move on from the Vig/SK thing. ray, most people probably haven't played with SK before. hilikuS, show buddying, please.

PAGE 4

ray: if you're a cit, you're helpful, but if you're a SK and no one questions you, then you could steam roll us. {suspcion list} - if you're not helping, you're hurting.

JackSpade: silence was due to being out of town. Asking the Vig to reveal himself is suspcious.

LA3: Gawain and JackSpade could be Mafia or special roles, but can't be masons.

thor: {suspects} - junichi buddying, ray's plays seem forced.

ryan: SK doesn't have to kill. I'm done talking about Vig.

junichi: SK is obligated to kill each round.

Zak: MTGSalvation Mafia doesn't count. Is WCFmo herding people? I don't like LA3's play style

Gawain: been really busy, sorry. Yaku's math post seems like a smoke screen and he hasn't posted as much. Don't think ryan would hold back. I'm never quiet. Suspect yaku, ryan

hilikuS: ryan's list is suspicious - red flag?

OGB: roles are randomly assigned. Possible Jack is a cop again. yaku was just using math as evidence. I don't know why Vig should come out. Nothing too out of the ordinary, but I do see buddying from junichi (smiley faces) Where is FWY?

WCFmo: Zak, admit you're wrong; last game you used a similar reason to justify Jack vote. Where is yaku? He can't drop off the map after asking people to talk more

ray: Mafia are bigger threat. leaning towards fwyb or LA3

Montague: first few rounds, I like to sit back and let everyone talk. Lot of plagarism in posts.

junichi: agreeing people should talk more isn't buddying. Smiley face?!

hilikuS: eye-roll means you have something to hide, obviously

yakusoku: excuse for being gone, address Gawain and WCFmo: I was gone, didn't post. I'll avoid posts with math - not a smoke screen. Next time I'll visit a Starbucks to post.

WCFmo: Is this a facetious comment?

yakusoku: No, I'm serious.

ryan: hilikuS, you are a hard player to read. I play vocal, Mafia or not. If I'm Mafia, I'd probably get lynched for being quiet, if I were a {role}, I'd get killed by Mafia. I shouldn't have called out the Vig, but it got opinions out there.

ryan: vocal ppl DO get lynched because they say more. Silents can hide PRs.

fwybwed: Mafia love silent lynches early. I have no suspects; everyone is playing a safe game

ray: I'm voting for quiet person.

Gawain: equations seem superfluous. I hate math. ryan, I don't find your help particularly suspcious. I want to avoid talkative players being lynched. Keeping an eye on Yaku, ryan, hili, junichi

yakusoku: {game summary}, {suspcion list}

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quote:

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yakusoku:

I'm going to basically box everyone into categories of those with substantial posts, inconsequential posts, and no posts and rank them as 1, 3, and 2, respectively as likely being Citizens when it comes to my first vote.

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I meant what I wrote earlier, although we have no truly silent players. Here's the players I suspect the most:

fwybwed - post 1 basically says, "We have a good chance to catch Mafia" and post 2 says, "I have two questions and no suspects". That's a whole lot of saying not much. Also, he still hasn't addressed either of my two posts about his initial comment.

Montague - post 1, "It sucks that we lost two Masons; I'm voting for someone who says we should post more" post 2, "I don't talk much. There's lots of post copying. I think it's bad to out the Vig" These are also not very substantial posts.

Gawain - post 1, "I'll post tomorrow." post 2 "Sorry for being quiet; I've been busy. I suspect yakusoku; he's been awfully quiet and his post is a smoke screen." So, he's had one substantial post, and it's been incredibly hypocritical that he suspects me because I went a day without a post.

Oh, and seeing as junichi has shown that SK is obliged to kill, I STRONGLY URGE the Vig, if there is one, TO NOT KILL the next night. Thus, if there is only one NK, we know we are dealing with Vig, whereas if there is a kill, we are dealing with SK. This will yield the most information for the given scenario.

Ray, makes sense. I just had it backwards.

I would like to see Monty's plagiarism thoughts earlier rather than later.

I agree that Gawain's vote is poor in the light that he hasn't posted either.

Gawain, like I have said, there would be no reason if I was SK to post these questions in thread. I would directly ask Liq so the citizenry would still not have that knowledge. Can you be more descript on your feelings of Ray's posts about me? You are using extremely vague language. So what is it? Why are you getting a pro-town vibe? Is it the removal from context? Please clarify.