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Author Topic:   Mafia 13 : The Turkey Conspiracy
Montague
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posted November 08, 2010 12:20 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Montague Click Here to Email Montague Send a private message to Montague Click to send Montague an Instant MessageVisit Montague's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
Everybody is in such a rush and want's everybody to come on here and say what they are thinking, so here it goes.

It sucks that we lost 2 masons. This round, like every round after the first NK, there is almost no information to go on. I find it suspicious that people are coming on here freaking out about everybody needing to say what is on their mind now. Nothing is really on their mind. It is the first round. Settle down. I will probally be voting for somebody who is freaking out,

 
rayragnarok
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posted November 08, 2010 12:39 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for rayragnarok Click Here to Email rayragnarok Send a private message to rayragnarok Click to send rayragnarok an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by WCFmo:

I thought it was a pretty good deal to have 2 confirmeds last round as only a mafia would like about their role as the mason. As to any back and forth, I can separate game for games...though I'm still not sure why no one believed me that he killed the cop last game. We still won, so that's all that matters.

true but with 4 mafia this game, 2 NK's a round, and every cit role being possible assigned, i don't think that sort of thing would work this game, making one mason no better then a cit


as for the who killed whom thing i think the mafia killed Bernie and th SK killed MM. i know MM is the more experienced player but last game he held a lot of suspicion for no reason it seemed, and his post count was pretty low. he kinda seems like the type of person the mafia would want around in hopes of a easy lynch later maybe. hes death just seems more random, which makes me think SK.

the night round was pretty long imo, maybe the mafia were taking their time to pick the right person to hit, could their be some big strategical reason to kill Bernie or MM?

 
ryan2754
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posted November 08, 2010 12:48 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for ryan2754 Click Here to Email ryan2754 Send a private message to ryan2754 Click to send ryan2754 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View ryan2754's Have/Want ListView ryan2754's Have/Want List
Hey everyone.

Been a while since I played.

I am pretty familiar with all the roles that Liq has added - not only have I played in game with them, but sort of showed Liq a list of roles and he chose the ones he liked.

A few things of note just off of looking at the kills:
1.) Surprised that there are 4 mafia. Especially because if they vote as a bloc, we might just be boned in the later rounds (hopefully our 2nd NKer [presumably SK] hits a mafia and we are capable of getting mafia with DKs). Usually in 15-17 I see 3. Not only that, but a SK/Vig on top of that? Seems a little geared to the mafia, but eh, whatever. Must be some good PRs for the cits to counteract it.
2.) Usually (and I said "usually") Vigilantes aren't allowed to kill N0. Again, this can be taken with a grain of salt. Not only that, but Vigs are town oriented, and killing someone N0 as a Vig is uaually a horrible move.
3.) THis being said, more than likely I feel that the double-night kill is the result of a Serial Killer.

Highly doubt, therefore, that there is a vig. To counteract a 4 person mafia plus a serial killer, and then masons, there must be some decent PRs for the cits, at least 2, if not a smaller one as well (such as tracker, etc.)

So, this being said, we have 16 people
4 Mafia
2 Mason
1 Serial Killer
2 Town PRs
7 Cits

Again, this is all speculation, but it also based on my experience on other sites with said roles and balance.

Ray - highly doubt there are any masons left. Both were killed...nevertheless, could have a unique situation with 3 masons.

Didn't realize until now that the Vig is just a two-shot. Definitely changes a few scenarios.

We really should not be speculating on who the SK is right now. Mafia should be primary responsibility.
(If you want to know why I say this, I can explain it, but its more on game theory).

An SK can hit mafia as well.

I agree with thror: Burning a vig shot N0 is the 2nd worst play ever, since we have no information. This + previous games I've played in makes me think SK.

Thror- highly unlikely we have 4 masons. I have never played in a game with more than 2 together, and even with 3-4 mafia, only saw 2 masons.

Oh, and while I am thinking of it: REMEMBER REMEMBER REMEMBER - We have 14 players - If we don't hit mafia, with 2 NKs, next round we will have 11, next round after that we have 8 - GAME OVER. Again, this is very basic.
But I am letting people know in case they have relevant information. This is also assuming the 2nd NK NEVER hits mafia, and that day kill doesn't hit mafia.

Liq-How are you determining the win clause for SK? I've seen a few different ways. The two main ways I've seen is:
Scenario1
1.) Mafia wins if they are half of remaining players and SK dead (SK acts like another mafia group to mafia).
2.) SK wins when all mafia dead and he is half of remaining players.
3.) Town wins when Mafia AND SK dead.
Scenario2
1.) Mafia wins if they are half of remaining players whether or not SK dead (SK is like a citizen to the mafia).
2.) SK wins when all mafia dead and he is half of remaining players.
3.) Town wins when all mafia/SK dead.
Which way are you doing it? Slightly important detail, since it's not in your rules post.

When I am mafia, I try to go with the kill that gives the LEAST amount of information, and the GREATEST amount of DISINFORMATION. Speculation like this is relatively pointless, because mafia base their moves on disinformation. If I base it on this experience, I would have to say, because it's been a while since BernieB has played (IIRC), he was the mafia kill, because he gives the LEAST amount of POSSIBLE information. But again, this type of speculation sidetracks scum-hunting right now.
[As an aside, in most games with SK and Vig, the flavor can come into play. In some admin's games, SK usually uses a knife {slash, stab, etc.}, Vig uses gun, and mafia use other. Other admins don't use flavor as a key - see Liq; thus, speculation is pointless at this point because we have no possibility of knowing which way]

WCFmo- You make a very good point in your last sentence as a side point. I would almost guarantee someone is parroting. Even when I play as mafia, I make a point to say "people need to post yadda yadda." However, don't exclude the person that made the first post wanting people to talk.

I do however disagree that saying "I don't have a read on anyone is a post" is better than saying nothing. Both are equally bad. Post without substance practically = no post, except that you are letting people know you don't know anything, so perhaps you don't get lynched. Just because you repeatedly post small posts with little information/substance doesn't mean you are "participating." Someone with less posts and more substance >>>> MANY posts with no substance. Again, game theory, but I digress.

I am pretty much waiting on a few more responses (more ppl's opinions on the game so far), and Liq's response to my question.

Short version of my post:
1.) Probably SK. Worry about mafia.
2.) INFORMATION NEEDS TO BE SHARED ACCORDINGLY and with DISCRETION depending on whether we are near our last lynch. Unshared information is worse than having no information at all. Again use discretion.
3.) Asked Liq about SK win clause.
4.) Thinks mafia kill is based on disinformation this early, and thus, speculation on who was who (right now, not saying it isn't helpful later) is pointless.
5.) Next post is pending Liq's response.

EDIT: Fixed my question to Liq/made it easier to understand.
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[Edited 1 times, lastly by ryan2754 on November 08, 2010]

 
yakusoku
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posted November 08, 2010 01:10 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for yakusoku Click Here to Email yakusoku Send a private message to yakusoku Click to send yakusoku an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
fwybwed: 1
Gawain: 0
hilikuS: 2
JackSpade: 0
junichi: 2
LA3: 2
Montague: 1
OGB: 0
rayragnarok: 4
ryan2754: 1
thror: 1
WCFmo: 3
yakusoku: 2
Zakman86: 0

quote:
Originally posted by Montague:
Everybody is in such a rush and want's everybody to come on here and say what they are thinking


I'm not rushing anyone to post today, just to post at all. I guess I didn't say that very clearly. I want people to post *before* the lynch. Last game we had far too many people with 0 and 1 post after a NK. In other words, don't be a silent player until the lynch. Post now, in this time before the vote is due. Don't post next week. It should go without saying, but people DO go completely silent for a whole week and it's just not good. Then, we get people who post, "I'm still here. I've been really busy, sorry. I agree with X and Y, but don't know who I'm voting for. Probably Z. I'll say something more after more people post if I can." and then go silent running until the lynch and NK.

 
LA3
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posted November 08, 2010 01:48 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for LA3 Click Here to Email LA3 Send a private message to LA3 Click to send LA3 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
These four people have not posted yet

Gawain-first kill of mafia.( Game 12)
Zakman86
Jackspade-cop( mafia game 12)
OGB-mafia confirmed( game 12)

Now I am not saying lighting can't strike twice and people get major roles two games in a row, but again keep an eye on the above four

Jackspade was talkative early in the last game

 
Liq
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posted November 08, 2010 02:22 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Liq Click Here to Email Liq Send a private message to Liq Click to send Liq an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Liq's Trade Auction or SaleView Liq's Trade Auction or Sale
quote:
Liq-How are you determining the win clause for SK? I've seen a few different ways. The two main ways I've seen is:

Scenario1
1.) Mafia wins if they are half of remaining players and SK dead (SK acts like another mafia group to mafia).
2.) SK wins when all mafia dead and he is half of remaining players.
3.) Town wins when Mafia AND SK dead.

Scenario2
1.) Mafia wins if they are half of remaining players whether or not SK dead (SK is like a citizen to the mafia).
2.) SK wins when all mafia dead and he is half of remaining players.
3.) Town wins when all mafia/SK dead.

Which way are you doing it? Slightly important detail, since it's not in your rules post.


quote:
Winning Conditions :

Team Mafia wins by eliminating enough players so that they make up 50% or more of the "living" players in the game. The citizens win by eliminating all members of Team Mafia and the Serial Killer. The Serial Killer wins by being one of the last two players in the game. The Survivor wins by being alive when one of the other teams win.


Moreorless Scenario2. Except the SK doesn't have to kill all the mafia.

__________________
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<Jazaray> you broke MOTL
<Liq> totally
<BoltBait> Don't make me kick you
<Slinga> Have no fear, MOTL's janitor is here!
<nderdog> So we're all agreed, it's Liq's fault, right?
<Leshrac> let me deal with that
* Liq has been banned

 
ryan2754
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posted November 08, 2010 03:00 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for ryan2754 Click Here to Email ryan2754 Send a private message to ryan2754 Click to send ryan2754 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View ryan2754's Have/Want ListView ryan2754's Have/Want List
Ok, got it.

So this just means the SK, if present, is going to want to get rid of mafia, just like the citizenry, earlier rather than later (because they are like a citizen to the mafia and lose with the citizens). Thus, expect the SK to act pro-town, while also remaining a somewhat low-key profile.

This also means that the mafia aren't going to be particularly worried about finding the SK, unless the SK nabs a few of their members.

Now, what I am going to propose next might lead to a decent amount of controversy:
If we happen to have a vig instead of the SK, and you are the vig, I ask that you come out/
I know I am going to get flak for it, but hear me out:
1.) It lets us know that we are NOT dealing with an SK, can much of the current debate can be averted.
2.) Now, I know you may be new with the vig role, and want to use your power, but using your first shot on N0 was dumb. Bad play. Bad play to the point where the town as a whole should use your second kill instead of your own discretion.
Normally I am completely against my #2 here because I like to let PRs do their own thing and use their own rules of discretion. However, given the nature of this particular game and what has transpired with N0 and the number of mafia, even in just the first round, I think it would be better for you to do so.

Again, I HIGHLY DOUBT we have a vig. But if we do, I think you should come out.

Let the conversation begin.

__________________
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5th in Refs [185] in OH-IO
(Catching up to xion_black)
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(Have a long way to go to catch Val)

 
junichi
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posted November 08, 2010 03:11 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for junichi Click Here to Email junichi Send a private message to junichi Click to send junichi an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View junichi's Have/Want ListView junichi's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by ryan2754:
Ok, got it.

So this just means the SK, if present, is going to want to get rid of mafia, just like the citizenry, earlier rather than later (because they are like a citizen to the mafia and lose with the citizens). Thus, expect the SK to act pro-town, while also remaining a somewhat low-key profile.

This also means that the mafia aren't going to be particularly worried about finding the SK, unless the SK nabs a few of their members.

Now, what I am going to propose next might lead to a decent amount of controversy:
If we happen to have a vig instead of the SK, and you are the vig, I ask that you come out/
I know I am going to get flak for it, but hear me out:
1.) It lets us know that we are NOT dealing with an SK, can much of the current debate can be averted.
2.) Now, I know you may be new with the vig role, and want to use your power, but using your first shot on N0 was dumb. Bad play. Bad play to the point where the town as a whole should use your second kill instead of your own discretion.
Normally I am completely against my #2 here because I like to let PRs do their own thing and use their own rules of discretion. However, given the nature of this particular game and what has transpired with N0 and the number of mafia, even in just the first round, I think it would be better for you to do so.

Again, I HIGHLY DOUBT we have a vig. But if we do, I think you should come out.

Let the conversation begin.



I don't think that is a wise strategy, and it is way too early for anyone to reveal their role. If one of the NK was indeed caused by a Vig, then he should know by now that what he did was foolish, and would not use his night action again until later in game. Besides, if there are 2 NK next round, we can be pretty confident that there is a SK among us.

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WCFmo
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posted November 08, 2010 04:39 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for WCFmo Click Here to Email WCFmo Send a private message to WCFmo Click to send WCFmo an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View WCFmo's Trade Auction or SaleView WCFmo's Trade Auction or Sale
quote:
Originally posted by Montague:
Everybody is in such a rush and want's everybody to come on here and say what they are thinking, so here it goes.

It sucks that we lost 2 masons. This round, like every round after the first NK, there is almost no information to go on. I find it suspicious that people are coming on here freaking out about everybody needing to say what is on their mind now. Nothing is really on their mind. It is the first round. Settle down. I will probally be voting for somebody who is freaking out,


I'm not quite sure anyone is 'freaking out.' Also, R1 the only info you start with is the NK, even if it is or isn't significant (random night kill and b/c only the mafia have the inside info) then the cits, hopefully, gather info based on what people say, how they vote, and who gets lynched/NK'd and then make an educated guess at who the mafia are - at least that's how I thought it was played. :P

==============================================

quote:
Originally posted by LA3:
These four people have not posted yet

Gawain-first kill of mafia.( Game 12)
Zakman86
Jackspade-cop( mafia game 12)
OGB-mafia confirmed( game 12)

Now I am not saying lighting can't strike twice and people get major roles two games in a row, but again keep an eye on the above four

Jackspade was talkative early in the last game


Thought you couldn't post till tonight? Your MOTL profile says you are in IL, you get back early? You do make a point, it is kind of odd not to have heard from at least GAW.

==============================================

Re: SK v VIG

I would hope that the VIG would have learned his lesson, so I don't think if there is a VIG he should come out.

==============================================

quote:
Originally posted by rayragnarok:
true but with 4 mafia this game, 2 NK's a round, and every cit role being possible assigned, i don't think that sort of thing would work this game, making one mason no better then a cit

I never said the same thing would work this round. At least posting some more substance this round (similar to R1 of your first game).

 
LA3
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posted November 08, 2010 05:07 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for LA3 Click Here to Email LA3 Send a private message to LA3 Click to send LA3 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
WCFmo my internet was out (comcast repairs), yes i used my blackberry to get by posting in this game.
 
Gawain
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posted November 09, 2010 12:30 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Gawain Click Here to Email Gawain Send a private message to Gawain Click to send Gawain an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
Oh GOD, the game has started with a vengeance, and I'm woefully behind! Drunk/late/worked all night right now, but I got the next two days off. I'll post something worthwhile on the morrow, and no worries, it ain't gonna be an LA3 style "promise."
 
OGB
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posted November 09, 2010 05:25 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for OGB Click Here to Email OGB Send a private message to OGB Click to send OGB an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
Ryan, why would you ask the vigilante to reveal himself now (even though I think we have a serial killer)? Wouldn't the mafia just NK him then, effectively forcing him to use his second kill in the next night round? Or is that what you were getting at before, I couldn't really tell from your post. If we DO have a vigilante, I think the message has been sent that he has done the town a disservice already. But again, I don't think that's the case, I think we're working with a SK.

As far as the game thusfar, I think everyone is par for the course. The only think that I can say is semi-interesting is that JackSpade hasn't posted yet. Last game, Mafia 12, he got some heat in R1 for "mis-remembering" his past game play, and then basically disappeared R2 to stop drawing attention to himself, and he turned out the be the cop. I don't necessarily consider it suspicious, just something to keep an eye on.

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hilikuS
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posted November 09, 2010 05:45 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for hilikuS Click Here to Email hilikuS Send a private message to hilikuS Click to send hilikuS an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View hilikuS's Trade Auction or SaleView hilikuS's Trade Auction or Sale
quote:
Originally posted by OGB:

As far as the game thusfar, I think everyone is par for the course. The only think that I can say is semi-interesting is that JackSpade hasn't posted yet. Last game, Mafia 12, he got some heat in R1 for "mis-remembering" his past game play, and then basically disappeared R2 to stop drawing attention to himself, and he turned out the be the cop. I don't necessarily consider it suspicious, just something to keep an eye on.


I gotta go to bat for Spade again this time. While he hasn't posted yet which isn't ever a good thing, he got lynched (as the cop) last time because he made too much noise. I wouldn't be surprised, role or not, that he's going for a different approach this game. Logically, that's what a lot of players would do IMO.

__________________
Originally posted by Gawain:
Have you HAD gravy???

Originally posted by wayne:
Something cool.

 
ryan2754
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posted November 09, 2010 06:30 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for ryan2754 Click Here to Email ryan2754 Send a private message to ryan2754 Click to send ryan2754 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View ryan2754's Have/Want ListView ryan2754's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by hilikuS:
I gotta go to bat for Spade again this time. While he hasn't posted yet which isn't ever a good thing, he got lynched (as the cop) last time because he made too much noise. I wouldn't be surprised, role or not, that he's going for a different approach this game. Logically, that's what a lot of players would do IMO.


But, in essence, if he does have a role, keeping quiet this time around would clue in a decent mafia.

Things of note:
- Thror said people need to talk
- Yaku posts a lot of IIoA
- I agree with hili that SK is out for mafia, because he loses with the town. (Side note: From my experience, SK is one of the hardest, if not THE hardest, role to win with. You not only have to beat the mafia, but you lose with the cits. Since most people I think aren't necessarily familiar with the SK role on these boards, I'd say that he will out himself eventually. Again, just another reason why we should concentrate on mafia.)
- Junichi agrees with thror
- WCFmo mentions trying to figure out who killed who, which is a whole bunch of OMGUS and irrelevant speculation at this point in the game. Can't tell if this is genuine or scum-oriented.
- Yaku agrees with thror
- WCFmo mentions parroting.
- Monty sort of agrees with WCFmo, even taking it to the point that he finds it suspicious.
- Yaku defends himself.
As for people not posting, it happens. With a possible cop and SK, those people usually either get investigated or killed because of their ability to lurk/hide. Normally, I am OK with a lynch of a lurker in the first round, however, we have never had a second NK PR before, which drastically changes this scenario. SK/Vig want to scumhunt and get rid of mafia as well, and thus lurking/not talking hurts them as well. Thus, my reasoning on why lurkers aren't worth a lynch right now.
- I say if there is a Vig, come out.
- junichi disagrees; WCFmo disagrees
- OGB disagrees as well
- hili defends spade

quote:
Originally posted by OGB:
Ryan, why would you ask the vigilante to reveal himself now (even though I think we have a serial killer)? Wouldn't the mafia just NK him then, effectively forcing him to use his second kill in the next night round? Or is that what you were getting at before, I couldn't really tell from your post. If we DO have a vigilante, I think the message has been sent that he has done the town a disservice already. But again, I don't think that's the case, I think we're working with a SK.

As far as the game thusfar, I think everyone is par for the course. The only think that I can say is semi-interesting is that JackSpade hasn't posted yet. Last game, Mafia 12, he got some heat in R1 for "mis-remembering" his past game play, and then basically disappeared R2 to stop drawing attention to himself, and he turned out the be the cop. I don't necessarily consider it suspicious, just something to keep an eye on.



1. I already explained why I feel the vig needs to come out: (1) he already did the citizenry a disservice (2) it will end the debate on whether or not there is an SK, and we can move on (3)again, normally I am against it, but this is one of those scenarios where I feel allowing the citizenry to determine the next vig kill as opposed to the vig alone is warranted (4)AGAIN, DOUBT there is a vig but yeah.
2. Well that's just it. Would the mafia kill him? He has already helped them out. Maybe they WANT him to use the second kill. If the citizenry agree on who to kill via the vig, and it happens to be mafia, the mafia then have to play on that and decide whether or not to kill him. (Liq, if mafia kill vig the same night he uses his NK ability, does the vig kill still go through or not?AKA whats the order of actions during the night phase). If they kill him, maybe we are on the right track. Again this leaves the double-bluff scenario, but it puts the mafia in a bind. It's hard for me to express in words, but makes sense.
3. I don't disagree with the whole SK thing. Again, I really think we have an S. What I'm saying is that IF we have a vig (slim) chance, coming out would put us at an advantage in a round where normally no information is garnered. Again, you can disagree with me, but this is how I feel given the circumstances.


All this being said, my suspicions:
Medium/Low:
yaku (IIoA, parroting)
WCFmo (mentions parroting, then does it himself)
LA3 (I find his style of play suspicious everytime I play with him, especially because he says the same thing over and over again and I can't get a read on someone who continually says "I'll have a post...eventually" so yeah)

Low:
Gawain, Jack, Zakman (quiet)

No Read/Suspicion:
fwy, ray, junichi

Pro-town vibes (Gut, so take with grain of salt, mainly a placeholder):
Monty
Hili
thror
OGB

As of right now, sending in a tentative vote for WCFmo.

__________________
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5th in Refs [185] in OH-IO
(Catching up to xion_black)
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Zakman86
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posted November 09, 2010 06:52 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Zakman86 Click Here to Email Zakman86 Send a private message to Zakman86 Click to send Zakman86 an Instant MessageVisit Zakman86's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Zakman86's Have/Want ListView Zakman86's Have/Want List
In a bit of irony, I'm going to pull a LA3 here and let everyone know that I plan on posting something later tonight (MY TIME; it's 7 pm here).
 
WCFmo
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posted November 09, 2010 07:19 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for WCFmo Click Here to Email WCFmo Send a private message to WCFmo Click to send WCFmo an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View WCFmo's Trade Auction or SaleView WCFmo's Trade Auction or Sale
quote:
Originally posted by ryan2754:

All this being said, my suspicions:
Medium/Low:
yaku (IIoA, parroting)
WCFmo (mentions parroting, then does it himself)
LA3 (I find his style of play suspicious everytime I play with him, especially because he says the same thing over and over again and I can't get a read on someone who continually says "I'll have a post...eventually" so yeah)

Low:
Gawain, Jack, Zakman (quiet)

...

As of right now, sending in a tentative vote for WCFmo.



I assume you mean my statement regarding SK v VIG. Sorry wasn't about to beat a dead horse, but I can if you want me too...stranger things have happenned (like a Mason voting off the other Mason), so while I think it extremely unlikely we have a VIG, if there is one what would the cits gain from him coming out? If he does come out, assuming he is telling the truth, we get two lynches basically. The power of the VIG IMHO is that if the person has suspicions of someone who is very unlikely to get voted off and that person is mafia. In essence, you are asking for a glorified vote when we still have little information.

quote:
Originally posted by ryan2754:

2.) Now, I know you may be new with the vig role, and want to use your power, but using your first shot on N0 was dumb. Bad play. Bad play to the point where the town as a whole should use your second kill instead of your own discretion.

Also, Ryan, if you have time, go look through the games I have played and also what I said to Monty, the only place you have to start is the NK. If you don't talk about significance/insignicance of the NK, then what else you gonna talk about...the birds and the bees? It's my way to get everyone talking about something. Returning to my discussion above, here you are asking the VIG to come out when we have little info while simultaneously complaining that I am trying to get info. ???


I'll save you a bit of trouble and pull a direct post from last game after the first NK.

quote:
Originally posted by WCFmo:
2nd Obligatory question - did GAW's death have any significance? I think GAW's a pretty good player, it is possibly that they went after him for that reason. Also, people have mentioned people going after other players b/c of their reads or inside information. The last time GAW was a wolf/mafia/troll was in MOTL Salvation and it was him, Trand, and OGB. Other than OGB, I don't recall any other player mentioning that they thought GAW had a good read or had played with him as a baddy before hand in the last few games.

Question to Ryan - why or why not is yaku the most suspicious person on your list or was that formatting?

 
Zakman86
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posted November 09, 2010 10:13 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Zakman86 Click Here to Email Zakman86 Send a private message to Zakman86 Click to send Zakman86 an Instant MessageVisit Zakman86's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Zakman86's Have/Want ListView Zakman86's Have/Want List
OK, so here we go... usually I do a post on my thoughts on the round but I'm going to go with a player by player analysis today:

Zakman86 - Your friendly neighborhood Zakman. I'll let you make your own decisions on me. I WAS dumb enough to kill the cop last game though.

ryan - first game I've played with you. I know you're a vet, and I don't agree with the vig outting themselves right now. However, you seem to be leaning pro-town.

Gawain - oddly quiet, not posting drunk. Positive, I guess.

LA3 - typical play; all promises, no meat. I don't especially like it, but it's normal for him. :|

juni - another vet I haven't gotten to play a game with. Good point about LA3, but that's how he normally plays too, so we really can't use it as anything.

thror - Sneaky, sneaky bastard... very intelligent as well, Oddly, hasn't posted a lot of substance.

rr- Mafia Leader last game, apparently according to some people it was easy to tell he was Mafia... I didn't see it, but I don't see the same play here either.

yaku = walls of information, as usual. I'm not sure how much of it's actually all that useful.

JackSpade - quiet, but not sure if that's due to what happened last game.

WCFMo - Something doesn't sit right with me.

Montague - Ask me again in 2 rounds.

fwy - 2 words. Grammar. Check. Jebus, dude.

OGB - Nothing of note yet

hili - Man, you have GOT to quit defending people right away, it makes you look suspicious... but for some reason, I think you're genuine.

I can't make any speculation on the NK due to the SK/Vig :|

Suspicious of:

WCF
LA3
thror

 
hilikuS
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posted November 09, 2010 10:19 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for hilikuS Click Here to Email hilikuS Send a private message to hilikuS Click to send hilikuS an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View hilikuS's Trade Auction or SaleView hilikuS's Trade Auction or Sale
quote:
Originally posted by Zakman86:
hili - Man, you have GOT to quit defending people right away, it makes you look suspicious... but for some reason, I think you're genuine.


Especially in the early rounds, I like to try and draw up conversation by doing some defending. If I feel like a reason for voting doesn't make sense to me, I usually mention why. We never have much to go on in the early rounds, but before I would watch people take a little thing and run with it. I want to try and prevent that by rebutting some suspicions early. I feel like it hampers the hunt for mafia. Plus it gets people talking about suspicions, which is awesome!

__________________
Originally posted by Gawain:
Have you HAD gravy???

Originally posted by wayne:
Something cool.

 
rayragnarok
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posted November 09, 2010 10:56 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for rayragnarok Click Here to Email rayragnarok Send a private message to rayragnarok Click to send rayragnarok an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by ryan2754:
If they kill him, maybe we are on the right track. Again this leaves the double-bluff scenario, but it puts the mafia in a bind. It's hard for me to express in words, but makes sense.

i don't like that argument, its the same kind of pitch that cults use, and i'm not buying it. i don't see how it could make sense if you cant put it into words.


if i was to guess who the SK was right now i would have to go with Ryan. he's the only one who seems to care how the SK wins:

quote:
Originally posted by ryan2754:

Liq-How are you determining the win clause for SK? I've seen a few different ways.


then he tells us how the SK is going to play:

quote:
Originally posted by ryan2754:

So this just means the SK, if present, is going to want to get rid of mafia, just like the citizenry, earlier rather than later (because they are like a citizen to the mafia and lose with the citizens). Thus, expect the SK to act pro-town, while also remaining a somewhat low-key profile.


also it almost seems like he doesn't want us to think that the SK is worth worrying about:

quote:
Originally posted by ryan2754:

From my experience, SK is one of the hardest, if not THE hardest, role to win with. You not only have to beat the mafia, but you lose with the cits. Since most people I think aren't necessarily familiar with the SK role on these boards, I'd say that he will out himself eventually. Again, just another reason why we should concentrate on mafia.


and the whole "telling the Vig what to do" thing seems like a good way to distract us while he paints us a picture of what the SK should look like.

i'm not saying its concrete by any-means but its the best i can come up with round 1.

 
WCFmo
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posted November 09, 2010 11:09 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for WCFmo Click Here to Email WCFmo Send a private message to WCFmo Click to send WCFmo an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View WCFmo's Trade Auction or SaleView WCFmo's Trade Auction or Sale
quote:
Originally posted by Zakman86:

LA3 - typical play; all promises, no meat. I don't especially like it, but it's normal for him. :|

...

WCFMo - Something doesn't sit right with me.

...

Suspicious of:

WCF
LA3
thror


What exactly doesn't sit right with you?

All I can say is that your read is off this game zak. You are almost always suspicious of LA3 (as well as half of the players in the game, except your first game where you took over for him). About thror, I don't see it this round anyways.

quote:
Originally posted by Zakman86:

juni - another vet I haven't gotten to play a game with. Good point about LA3, but that's how he normally plays too, so we really can't use it as anything.

...

ryan - first game I've played with you. I know you're a vet, and I don't agree with the vig outting themselves right now. However, you seem to be leaning pro-town.


Also, I call schenanigans on this --> http://classic.magictraders.com/ubb/Forum12/HTML/016880.html all of us played MOTL Salvation, remember? Though Jun was the first NK in that game, ryan lasted a while and was the vigilant (PSTullio or somehing in MOTLSalvation).

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junichi
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posted November 09, 2010 11:19 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for junichi Click Here to Email junichi Send a private message to junichi Click to send junichi an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View junichi's Have/Want ListView junichi's Have/Want List
I believe what Ryan was saying is, the SK is a double-edged sword, and the SK's best interest is to keep the game at an equilibrium state until the final round.

Anyway, I'm leaning toward Gawain at the moment, and will not change my vote unless something epic happens.

reason:
I never liked the "I was too drunk/busy/internet died and couldn't post" excuse. People use that way too often, and it is the perfect way to just sit back and watch without drawing much attention.

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hilikuS
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posted November 09, 2010 12:00 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for hilikuS Click Here to Email hilikuS Send a private message to hilikuS Click to send hilikuS an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View hilikuS's Trade Auction or SaleView hilikuS's Trade Auction or Sale
quote:
Originally posted by junichi:

reason:
I never liked the "I was too drunk/busy/internet died and couldn't post" excuse. People use that way too often, and it is the perfect way to just sit back and watch without drawing much attention.


He's always got a crazy story to tell. This is nothing new .


As far as my own suspicions, while this is rather weak, it beats anything else out there for a round 1 vote.

In my experience playing these games, I don't think I've ever been told I wasn't all that suspicious. Especially in early games since I always want to try and drum up the conversation. Now mind you, it's a hunch at best here, but I feel like ryan and Zak have both done a bit of buddying on me earlier today.

While I suspect ryan more of the two, I feel as though if I'm wrong about him being mafia, we lost a very talkative, helpful and experienced citizen. I'd be happy letting him go and seeing what he has to offer. That being said, I'm going to declare my vote for Zakman86. Not that Zak isn't playing a good game, but judging from how ryan has been posting, he's got a ton of XP. I want to see where that XP will take us.

Summary: Voting Z86 for buddying.

__________________
Originally posted by Gawain:
Have you HAD gravy???

Originally posted by wayne:
Something cool.

 
thror
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posted November 09, 2010 12:05 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for thror Send a private message to thror Click to send thror an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View thror's Trade Auction or SaleView thror's Trade Auction or Sale
Lot of WIFOM arguments running around, which isn't surprising considering we have less than some information to go on right now. Lets go look @ what we do know.

Concrete facts:
Meddling Mage + BB - Dead Masons
4 mafia / 10 'others' still alive
And the postcount -
fwybwed: 1
Gawain: 1
hilikuS: 5
JackSpade: 0
junichi: 4
LA3: 4
Montague: 1
OGB: 1
rayragnarok: 5
ryan2754: 3
thror: 2
WCFmo: 6
yakusoku: 2
Zakman86: 2

Probable Assumptions:
Serial Killer
A few other cit roles to counteract the increase in mafia #'s

Im going to defend a few points here quick - Ryan (much like me/W in our early posts) is trying to nail down how the game works. This is a good thing. I have only played under old rules, these new roles/rules are NEW, and if we know how they work we can use them better.

-Gawain - IS often working/drunk. Like, half of his posts on motl are something to the effect 'long day @ work, drunk nao.!!1!' Not a tell imo.

Of the players that haven't posted much, I am inclined to give Monty, Gaw, and OGB a pass based on probable future contributions. Jack and Fwy need to convince me they can pull their weight, however. On the flip side, RR and W can be considered 'overactive' at the moment, but if memory serves this is normal for both of them.

I need a little time to get all my thoughts together, but i will post a suspect list later today, with my reasoning.

edit: nathd by hili, edited postcount.

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[Edited 1 times, lastly by thror on November 09, 2010]

 
LA3
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posted November 09, 2010 12:28 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for LA3 Click Here to Email LA3 Send a private message to LA3 Click to send LA3 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
It seems I'm always a target because of my style. So I will say this, how am I supposed to better my skills if I don't have a chance.


Having said that main computer access is at home. I can however with my blackberry read what's been going on.

Other than that can't do much so cut me some slack.

 
ryan2754
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posted November 09, 2010 03:31 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for ryan2754 Click Here to Email ryan2754 Send a private message to ryan2754 Click to send ryan2754 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View ryan2754's Have/Want ListView ryan2754's Have/Want List
Nice, finally got some discussion going.

quote:
Originally posted by WCFmo:
so while I think it extremely unlikely we have a VIG, if there is one what would the cits gain from him coming out? If he does come out, assuming he is telling the truth, we get two lynches basically. The power of the VIG IMHO is that if the person has suspicions of someone who is very unlikely to get voted off and that person is mafia. In essence, you are asking for a glorified vote when we still have little information.


I have explained myself. But on top of that, if we had a vig, he also has a very high likelyhood of hitting a town PR, given we have 4 mafia and an SK. Thus, a town oriented vig kill. Like I said earlier, I do not disagree - I usually let people play their PRs their own way. But vig is one of those that is EXTREMELY SWINGY. Hell, I've lost a game before where I was vig and hit 2 mafia (out of 3) on back to back nights. Town ended up thinking I was SK. WE STILL LOST. I think we should move on, because more or less I'm harping on game theory and now we have a plethora of dicussion.

quote:
Originally posted by WCFmo:
Also, Ryan, if you have time, go look through the games I have played and also what I said to Monty, the only place you have to start is the NK. If you don't talk about significance/insignicance of the NK, then what else you gonna talk about...the birds and the bees? It's my way to get everyone talking about something.


I understand that it gets discussion going (in a somewhat convuluted way). But in my experience, harping on who killed who during the night or why the mafia chose this person leads to a ton of OMGUS and WIFOM and just sidetracks the cits. As mafia, I LOVE when people discuss why so and so was killed in the early rounds.

quote:
Originally posted by WCFmo:
Returning to my discussion above, here you are asking the VIG to come out when we have little info while simultaneously complaining that I am trying to get info.


Not sure what you mean. Can you reexplain the above statement.

quote:
Originally posted by WCFmo:
Question to Ryan - why or why not is yaku the most suspicious person on your list or was that formatting?


The order in each category in my suspicion list is arbitrary. It's mainly me going through the player list and my synopsis and moving people into a category.

Ray, I never said I "can't" put it into words. I said it's hard for me to put into words, and I tried my best. No one has yet to really ask me to clarify so must mean I did an OK job. On top of that, it's partially due to game theory, which I would really like to cast aside right now so we can do some real scumhunting. It's probably a moot point anyway because we more than likely are dealing with an SK.

Ray, you aren't looking at the big picture. I would say a majority of people haven't played a game with an SK before. I on the other hand, have played a few games with an SK, and the win clause for the SK is different with each game. Thus, IT DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE, because ultimately it effects how the SK plays, which ultimately affects how the citizens play, and I think almost everyone would agree. Yes, I do tell you how the SK more or less is going to play. AGAIN because most people who play on this site don't play elsewhere (and thus don't necessarily know the ins and outs of an SK), and I've had experience with SKs. You act like me imparting my knowledge/experience wat the town's disposal is a bad thing.
As of right now, HE'S NOT WORTH WORRYING ABOUT. The SK wants to kill scum right now just like the town. He loses with the town, thus it's in his best interest to scumhunt and kill mafia now, because the more mafia around, the greater their chance of bloc-voting late game, and thus, the SK getting a loss. I really don't understand how this is suspicious to you/doesn't make sense. You are pretty much calling me suspicious because I am imparting my experience from other sites with a role uncommon to MOTL in this particular game. That's the biggest load of BS.

I agree that Zak needs to give a reason for his WCFmo suspicion. It sure seems like a bit of fencesitting right after I declare a tentative vote for WCFmo. So later in the game he can cover his tracks.

WCFmo: That game you point out was crazy frustrating for me. Ha.

Hili, can you point out what I have said that is buddying in your mind?
Also, can you reveal where Zak was buddying you? Is it for him calling you genuine? If so, that is an interesting choice of words (i.e. genuine).

Just saying you see buddying isn't enough - please show (almost same thing I've said about Zak's mystery suspicion on WCF).


@LA3 - I have played a several games with you, and people give you chances, multiple chances, and you almost always say "I need mroe time" or "post with analysis later to come" and then when it's time you say "I can't add anything."
It's a cycle you repeat over and over, and is extremely unhelpful. I understand you have computer issues at the moment, but we are saying this because previous games show that you never/rarely post CONTENT. You had chances, now use one. Read the thread over. Ask questions if you have them. Ask for clarification. Find something suspicious. Saying "I have nothing to go on" or tagging along on someone else's suspicion isn't CONTENT.

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