quote:

---

Originally posted by ryan2754:

I would like to see Monty's plagiarism thoughts earlier rather than later.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by ryan2754:
Yaku, I myself never say I shouldn't have called out the vig. I'm standing by my decision.

---

I'm sorry. I misinterpreted this statement:

quote:

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So it's pretty unanimous that people think I shouldn't have called out the vig. That's completely fine.

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I thought that was you conceding, "Fine, you guys were right. I shouldn't have done that."

You're disagreeing is atypical from what I see from many people these days (it's too civil?!). I know many people who would NOT have replied like that. If they disagreed and thought they were wrong, they repeat their same argument over and over and insist the other side is wrong.

I would expect if you believe you're right you'd say:

quote:

---

So it's pretty unanimous that people think I shouldn't have called out the vig. That's your opinion. But it's wrong. I stand by my decision and the rest of you are just wrong.

---

I think I'm too used to politicians painting everything in black and white terms - the other guy wants to double taxes on the poor and eliminate all taxes on billionaires who will use bald eagles as fuel for making bombs -or- the other guy wants to take all the money in your checking account and give it to America-hating hippies who burn copies of the Constitution to keep them warm in their government-subsidized housing at night.

quote:

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I know you just made a lengthy post, but does anybody other than fwy, Monty, or gawain pique a little suspicion?

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A little suspicion, maybe, but no one as much as those.

To me it seems like asking me if besides housing, insurance, gas and food, if there are any expenses in my budget. The $6 I paid for FNM isn't as significant as that $500+ check I just wrote for health insurance.

OGB's smiley comment irks me, but not nearly as much as those three. thror has very few posts, but they have far more substance than those three, IMO. JackSpade has fewer posts, but hasn't seemed like he's done intentional posting that looks like it says something, but says nothing intead. I have no leanings one way or the other on him.

quote:

---

ryan2754:

Just a little more commentary on how you got to that point of suspicions from post recaps would be great.

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Case for Montague:

quote:

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Montague:

I find it suspicious that people are coming on here freaking out about everybody needing to say what is on their mind now. Nothing is really on their mind. It is the first round. Settle down. I will probally be voting for somebody who is freaking out,

---

So, if you encourage people to talk, I think you're Mafia? Why would he discourage people right away from talking, saying that he's going to vote for someone who encourages others to talk? That's just unbelievably blatant. Everyone should just shut up and randomly pick someone based on no information. 10/14 chance of picking a citizen *that* way. Then...

quote:

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Montague:

First, It seems like I am re-reading the same thing over and over.

...

Second, Obviously Ryan calling the Possible Vig out seems to be a big deal. MY opinion on the matter: I think that it would be a bad idea to come out if you are a vig. I think it was a bad idea for ryan to call the vig out.

---

I can barely believe these two statements are in the SAME post. He complains that people are posting the same idea, but then goes right to his second point which is that he agrees that it was a bad idea to come out if you are the Vig. and it was a bad idea for you to call the Vig. out.

THAT is really original. But, he did preface it with "MY opinion:" to emphasize the fact that it's not him just parroting someone else. This is HIS opinion that's also the same as everyone else's.

Case for Gawain:

quote:

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LA3:

These four people have not posted yet
Gawain-first kill of mafia.( Game 12)
...

---

6 posts later...

quote:

---

Gawain:

I'll post something worthwhile on the morrow, and no worries, it ain't gonna be an LA3 style "promise."

---

That's his "checking in. I'm here." post. Also, he deflects attention from hiself right back to LA3 ASAP.

Next post:

quote:

---

Gawain:

The info he posted was not in the from of equations and tons of other boring math; this feels like a smoke screen to me. I took one look at all those numbers and immediately lost interest. I feel like that was his intention.

---

I feel like this is projecting. If HE were Mafia and were in my shoes, this is exactly what he would do: make a confusing post that makes people move on. More importantly though:

quote:

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Gawain:

I know it seems hypocritical of me to say this, but I have seen nary a thing from Yaku since page 2, or maybe early, early page 3. He threw out some (boring and seemingly useless) info, then disappeared. Doesn't sit right with me.

---

He knows the very first argument that people, especially me, will throw right in his face and hopes to address that point pre-emptively. HE can have few posts and go silent, but that's not suspcious because that is his play style. If other people don't post every day, THAT's grounds for suspicion. He knows it's a good point because that's exactly what he's doing. Maybe he's not a Mafia, but it sure seems suspicious to call out people on the very behavior your exhibiting.

It's a clever post, nailing me if I do post, as I'm just obfuscating and nailing me if I don't post, as I'm evading. Either way, he's got proof that I'm Mafia. You only set up a logical argument that way if you want to reach your conclusion no matter what happens.

A -> B.
~A -> B.

Therefore, B.

Oh.

Maybe it's NOT so clever. He's got his "proof" that shows I'm the only suspect he can find.

Case for fwybwed:

quote:

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fwybwed:

With 4 members in the mafia this should be cinch to nab at least 1

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I STILL don't know what this was about.

quote:

---

yakusoku:

4 Mafia with 14 players = less than 30% chance to get a Mafia randomly.

---

quote:

---

So far I see repetative posts in regards to theory the SK...and a couple that stand out...

---

But, he doesn't point them out. Just a general statement that others have already shown.

quote:

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It is my opinion that the Mafia love silent lynches early in the game because they are a waste of cits

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This is the pile ray compiled:

fwybwed
Gawain
LA3
Montague
OGB
JackSpade

The obvious name is himself, but if just he and one other person on that list is a Mafia, it's in his best interest to get us going after more talkative members, just like Montague did earlier.

He asks ray to justify his list, then posts:

quote:

---

As of right now I have no real suspects

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by yakusoku:
So, if you encourage people to talk, I think you're Mafia? Why would he discourage people right away from talking, saying that he's going to vote for someone who encourages others to talk? That's just unbelievably blatant. Everyone should just shut up and randomly pick someone based on no information. 10/14 chance of picking a citizen *that* way. Then...

I never said if you encouraged people to talk, I think you're mafia. Those are your worlds. But people like you, people who seem to have more spare time then myself, get on here and start jumping on people and acting like because they havent posted 1,000 words or more that they are somehow not contributing. At that point in the game there is really nothing to go on, and while I agree that getting people to talk is the best answer, not everybody can get on here and blow as much fluff as you. I strongly suspect that this is just your wall to hide behind, but time will tell. This game gets in the same arguement every game. There is always people here who get all upset because people arent posting as much.

I can barely believe these two statements are in the SAME post. He complains that people are posting the same idea, but then goes right to his second point which is that he agrees that it was a bad idea to come out if you are the Vig. and it was a bad idea for you to call the Vig. out.

That was just because I don't have as much elegance with typing as you do I guess. To me, it sounded like "this is the big topic of the moment. Here is the way I see it. I in no way tried to make it sound like it was my original idea.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by yakusoku:
Summary, voting

---

This is another post that feels like a smokescreen to me. It's a huge amount of information, but it's all cherry-picked; I read the entire thing, and felt like several of the individual post "summaries" were geared towards eliciting a specific reaction based on removal from context, or slight alteration of original wording via the filter of personal interpretation. It seems like it's just a useful recap, but if you actually read through the whole thing, it makes you lean towards one player or another as being seemingly disingenuous or particularly unhelpful. I noted that one of those players was me; I was quiet early on, I admit, but I don't think that's gonna stick as an excuse for suspecting me for much longer, as I've now "gotten my head in the game" quite thoroughly.

quote:

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Originally posted by ryan2754:
I agree that Gawain's vote is poor in the light that he hasn't posted either.

Gawain, like I have said, there would be no reason if I was SK to post these questions in thread. I would directly ask Liq so the citizenry would still not have that knowledge. Can you be more descript on your feelings of Ray's posts about me? You are using extremely vague language. So what is it? Why are you getting a pro-town vibe? Is it the removal from context? Please clarify.

Edit: Ray, can you answer fwy's questions please?

---

For starters, here's the Ray post I was originally referencing:

quote:

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Originally posted by rayragnarok:
i don't like that argument, its the same kind of pitch that cults use, and i'm not buying it. i don't see how it could make sense if you cant put it into words.

if i was to guess who the SK was right now i would have to go with Ryan. he's the only one who seems to care how the SK wins:

then he tells us how the SK is going to play:

also it almost seems like he doesn't want us to think that the SK is worth worrying about:

and the whole "telling the Vig what to do" thing seems like a good way to distract us while he paints us a picture of what the SK should look like.

i'm not saying its concrete by any-means but its the best i can come up with round 1.

---

If anyone wants to see the quotes of yours he put together, this post can be found about 2/3 of the way down the page on page 3.

Having read back through it again and again, I think that what originally hit me in the "gut" about that post was less that he actually had anything on you, and more that his style of posting in general this game seems very different from last. It could be an intentional shift in playstyle, or it could be a natural shift based on having a different role, if any at all. I'm leaning towards the latter; I feel Ray is a Cit.

As anyone who has played this game with me in the past can attest, I am a fundamentally intuitive player; I don't put together the most rational or logical arguments, and I'm not the best at piecing together individual bits of evidence, but I've got a decent Scumdar nonetheless. I stand by my playstyle, as my results are at least fair in nearly every game.

Also, I haven't declared a vote yet, so saying "Gawain's vote is poor" is just silly. Further, I believe I mentioned in my initial post that suspecting Yaku based on a lack of posting was fairly hypocritical of me, but I was basing my understanding of his playstyle on the way he did things last game; since that was my FIRST experience of Yaku as a player in this game, I was expecting a fairly regular if not completely frequent post count. Then, I read all the way through the thread and noticed a decided gap between posts for him, and it piqued my interest. That's about all I've got on it, but now I'm seeing more than one post from him that feels like a smokescreen. If the "math" post had been an isolated occurrence, I might have backed off that suspicion a bit, but this most recent "summary" post feels very carefully and subtly engineered to me. Also, there is a very subtle but strong undercurrent of what feels like sarcasm at best, contempt at worst for my arguments thus far; discrediting them in this fashion could be one of two things: The sort of knee-jerk reaction that all folk for whom logic is God have to intuitive arguments, or a carefully designed and crafted attempt to undermine my influence on the citizenry so as to "pull the teeth" from my arguments and deflect attention away from a Mafia member.

quote:

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Originally posted by Yak:
So, he doesn't like that list of names, but won't put his own up.

---

whoa slow down there cowboy....lol Wow you are just gunnin for a R1 mafia hit huh?

I learned never to put up much of a list.

1. Mafia can use it against me....as I may be wrong
2. Mafia can use it against me....building up my suspicions
3. I may wanna change my mind later in the game about someone and a player like youself may use it against me. lol

I know there is nothing I would love more than get a R1 hit and have it under my mafia belt lol But you should take a look at the past game if you want any insight on how Mafia would probably post...as per your own postings no less.

So the last game:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Yak:
Current post count (including this one):
fwybwed: 4
Gawain: 1
hilikuS: 11
JackSpade: 7
LA3: 3
MeddlingMage: 1
Montague: 6
OGB: 4
rayragnarok: 8
WCFmo: 11
XplicitR: 0
yakusoku: 8
Zakman86: 7

---

this is before you became R2 NK our mafia in this game were OGB and Ray....

Look at their post count compared to all those cits. BAM! Nuff sed...!

So this pretty much blows any silence + post count = mafia theory you may have...lol and if that is not your basis for a mafia hit and you feel that the low posters are hurting the cits well you would be wrong again...

Also, "WCFmo: nothing to gain by outing the Vig. NK is the only significant thing to discuss." Not sure if I'm saying NK is the only significant thing to discuss the first round, it's the only thing you have to go off on the first round until people start posting, it's small talk to get an idea where everyone is at. I just think it gets people talking, rather than everyone saying there is nothing to go on.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Gawain:
...it makes you lean towards one player or another as being seemingly disingenuous or particularly unhelpful.

---

Gawain - I think this is what he's going for

quote:

---

Originally posted by YAK:
I'm going to basically box everyone into categories of those with substantial posts, inconsequential posts, and no posts and rank them as 1, 3, and 2, respectively as likely being Citizens when it comes to my first vote.

---

Are you still doing this YAK? Did GAW, MONTY, & FWY have the highest rankings out of whatever calculations you made?

RE: Monty - I think he's right when he says his playstyle is more laid back and he doesn't post things (at least the last few games I've played with him). It doesn't make me anymore comfortable that he is a hard player to read and does a good job of feigning emotion when needed. But with that being said, it feels more like last round's comment he said about XPR being lynched.

@ ZAK - still waiting for a reply

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:

As of right now I have no real suspects, seems like everyone is other than ryan is playin the safe game.

---

Really?

Also, your most recent post you suggest you shouldn't post a suspect list b/c people can use it against you? That's pretty weak FWY. The only people who have anything to hide are people with roles, IMHO.

fwybwed: 3
Gawain: 4
hilikuS: 7
JackSpade: 1
junichi: 6
LA3: 6
Montague: 3
OGB: 2
rayragnarok: 8
ryan2754: 8
thror: 3
WCFmo: 8
yakusoku: 6
Zakman86: 3

quote:

---

Originally posted by Montague:

I never said if you encouraged people to talk, I think you're mafia.

---

How else am I supposed to interpret:

quote:

---

I find it suspicious that people are coming on here freaking out about everybody needing to say what is on their mind now. Nothing is really on their mind. It is the first round. Settle down. I will probally be voting for somebody who is freaking out

---

Some people encouraged others to talk. You told us to stop. Then, you said you would probably be voting for someone who encouraged others to talk.

Unless you're voting for non-Mafia, I can only conclude that you feel that people who encouraged others to talk were Mafia.

If this is not the case, you need to explain your post more clearly.

quote:

---

not everybody can get on here and blow as much fluff as you.

---

You'll note that this time around, I have NOT used post length. I am going by the significance of your post. Your post can be two sentences and say plenty. If your post said:

quote:

---

I think ryan2754 is the most likely person to be Mafia. Calling out citizen roles is exactly what Mafia would do.

---

I wouldn't be on your case nearly as much. thror has FEWER posts than you, but I don't suspect him. He hasn't posted pages and pages of words, either.

quote:

---

To me, it sounded like "this is the big topic of the moment. Here is the way I see it. I in no way tried to make it sound like it was my original idea.

---

Juxtaposed with the first point which was that you were concerned that people were just copying other people's thoughts, can you understand MY concern? If the idea in your post is hardly original, then you are just as guilty as others who have said the same thing.

quote:

---

it's all cherry-picked

---

Yes, it is. I pulled the most relevent pieces I found to capturing the essence of the game so far, without ignoring any posts. No matter how I could have done it, things get left out. Reducing Romeo and Juliet down to 100 words is necessarily going to leave out a lot. Turning the whole game into a series of Twitter-esque posts also leaves some out. This is my interpretation of history here, including posts that I feel were largely empty, with just people saying, "I will post something later, but not in this post." which is pointless except for upping your post count so it's not 0 or at the bottom.

quote:

---

I was basing my understanding of his playstyle on the way he did things last game; since that was my FIRST experience of Yaku as a player in this game, I was expecting a fairly regular if not completely frequent post count.

---

First rule of statistics (or at least it should be): don't make conclusions on two (or fewer) data points. There are literally infinitely many ways to draw a graph that intersects two points. By your own admission, you've seen me play only last round and this round. So, you extrapolated based on just that and when it didn't fit your model, you immediately concluded something was off. This is like observing the sales in a store one day and coming back another day and noting that sales are down. You can conclude that the sales staff are bad, or try to collect more data. If you went on a Saturday and then came back on a Tuesday, you can't judge them both on the same criterion. I had 5 interrupted days of internet access a week last time. Just *this* week, I had one day of interruption.

I don't feel Logic = God, but logically unsound arguments based on intuition are going to be flawed if you can arrive at a contradiction or empty conclusion. I don't think that using your intuition is bad, but when it helps you conclude that two opposite behaviors are both evidence of the same cause, you should perhaps take a step back and realize that your intuition is wrong on at least one of those counts.

quote:

---

fwybwed:

Wow you are just gunnin for a R1 mafia hit huh

---

For me or for you?

If it's for you, then I'm betting that's not possible. If it's for me, then that won't be any different from last time when I was killed early. I always accuse people early and if I hem and haw without any names, someone somewhere is going to point out that this is unusual behavior.

As for your conclusion about OGB and Ray...

I'm not basing Mafia on silence + post count. Where did I say that? I'm looking for those with low #'s of posts with posts that don't say much.

EDIT TO ADD:

quote:

---

WCFmo:

Are you still doing this YAK? Did GAW, MONTY, & FWY have the highest rankings out of whatever calculations you made?

---

I can say that both Gawain and yaku have made somewhat solid arguments for the other. I think yaku's case on Gawain in stronger than his other two. The problem is I think this is a cit on cit crime (yes, my suspicions since page 3 have indeed changed).

So Gawain, his interaction with me in that post more or less elicited a response about his alignment, rather than a suspicion of me?

I didn't mean vote, bad choice of words.

Fwy's reason for not posting his suspicions/list is bad. The mafia can do that for everyone. But if the cit's don't know your suspicions, how can you ever persuade them to get a certain suspect lynched. I just don't understand, and your reasoning behind not having a list stinks. I change my suspect list all the time. That's the point of this game.

Can we please get OFF the post counts? They are absolutely irrelevant. A person can post a decent amount of times without any substance, and this is worst than posting once or twice with adequate information. Post COUNTS mean nothing, look at the substance, or lack thereof (no ideas of one's own, IIoA, etc.).
From previous experience, players that are scum are the ones that want to look at post counts, and show they have posted, and try to get cits who haven't posted lynched. It's a great method as mafia, but not so good if you are a cit.

So please, no more use of post counts as direct correlation to mafia. It's all about context.

And with yaku's most recent post I further see cit on cit action with him and Gawain.

The more I think about it, the more fwy looks suspicious given his logic of not posting a list. It's as if he is trying to look like he's pro-town, "not giving the mafia any information" rather than being pro-town.

@Ryan..Ill chalk it up as rusty play there

1. I never sed I had a suspect list ITS ONLY R1 FOLKS!!!!!! I sed I have no real suspects...lol AND that I never really put up MUCH of a list....

2. I'll always post who I suspect at any given time BUT i will never post a full list as it is very bad to do so.

Your posts in regard to my posting a list is very well timed it makes me wonder...

@yak...

quote:

---

Originally posted by Yak:
For me or for you?

---

you had listed 3 "cases" for 3 players...Myself, Gawain and Montague. Im not going to speak for the others but you sure as heck not getting half pages of ill concieved suspicion based on round 1 posts or lack there of especially since stats from the last game pretty much proved those wrong....lol

there is no proof or post thats states anyone of us are Mafia...but you are persistant in posting huge posts of insignificant banter that it does seem "smoke screenish"

Ray- if you intend to vote for me because some of my worthless posts go for it, i have job and had limited use of the internet which was my blackberry. I have made more than 6 posts and you say i am a quiet person.

Yaku - It feels to me like Yak is channeling a little bit of PD. Lots of fairly large posts, specific things that bother 1-2 players, gets reactions from people. The information is useful, but it's also a good way to make an enemy with another cit and get setup for a lynch later. Doesn't feel like mafia to me at the moment.

Ryan - the other 'heavy hitter' at the moment. Lots of back and forth with a few people about something less than important. Here, however, I feel like someone is purposefully poking him, to get him angry @ everyone and then lynched. Less suspicious of ryan (because i understand/agree with the idea of vigilante coming out) than the people that voraciously disagree with him. Will be looking @ them more in depth later.

Fwy - I've been playing with fwy for a year. I STILL can't parse his posts. Something about them bugs me, but it's hard to interpret what you don't understand, so for now i'll leave it.

Juni - tried to blow off the 'buddying' remark by attributing it to something that i wasn't referring to. His first post, he quotes me when i say "If you have something to say, say it" and then adds, well, a +1 and no information. And his next post is to correct yaku, that I made a post. They just don't sit right with me.

As for my other suspect, Ray, nothing has really changed. He followed through with the 'get in a fight and then back off' ploy, but didnt really have a choice I dont think.

At this time, I plan to vote either Ray or Juni.

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

It is also my nature to point out things that is wrong, which I do quite often at V4CB even when I am not participating.

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

quote:

---

Originally posted by junichi:
If I've to play the buddy up game, I would've buddy up with someone who is less stupid.

---

Personal attacks already? Did I hit a button?

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

quote:

---

Originally posted by thror:
Personal attacks already? Did I hit a button?

---

Didnt mean to make it sound like a personal attack, which i apologize here, but you are absolutely dead wrong on me, unless you are a mafia who is trying to out me.

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:

@rayragnarok

Q: Are you basing this off of your past game as Mafia?

Q: If you are in favor of a silent lynch, knowing that in the previous game both you and OGB had tendencies to speak when needed...Do you think it would be better to look at the ones who have posted thus far.

It is my opinion that the Mafia love silent lynches early in the game because they are a waste of cits.

---

1. i've only played two game and i died r1 my first game, so yes most of my views are based off of last game.

2. i'm in favor of a quiet lynch because me and OGB loved it every time the cits voted off someone helpful. with 4 mafia i expect one or two of them to hide in the crowd of quiet players.

and for the last part:
i'm going to disagree, i think they love when the cits kill all of their best players, and chat just dies.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:

I learned never to put up much of a list.

1. Mafia can use it against me....as I may be wrong
2. Mafia can use it against me....building up my suspicions
3. I may wanna change my mind later in the game about someone and a player like youself may use it against me. lol

---

not posting any suspects seems like it would be very covenant for a mafia. then he can just hop on whatever pile is best for mob and claim that it was his plan all along.
also this reminds me of how last game he said he was "possibly" going to vote for WCFmo but then he voted for OGB. these weird half-baked ploys of his seem to don't seem to us any good.

so i think i'm voting fwyb.

on a side note:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Gawain:
Got a D&D game starting in 10 minutes, gonna last several hours.

---

Zak has been fairly quiet, and his buddying didn't sit right with me. My play could be getting increasingly predictable, but I feel like Zak could be making a play. BLah blah, round 1 is hard to judge and so on.

Submitted for Zakman86.

__________________
Originally posted by Gawain:
Have you HAD gravy???

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

Get them in.

Remember in order for your vote to count, you must send me a MOTL PM by the time I post results. Any Vote submitted before results are posted will count. Even late minute, past the deadline votes will count as long as they arrive before results are posted.

That's what I garnered from a brief re-read of the last 2 pages.
I don't want a late claim like what happened last game in the early rounds.

If we can get a vote count, we can see who the number 1 vote getter is, and ask for a claim from him. Again, votes are due tonight, so yeah, this may be a little late, but I would definitely like the leading vote getter to claim earlier than later. It looks like from above that fwy has the lead with possible votes, and if this doesn't change I would like a claim by fwy before it gets to late. Like I said, if someone can get a real vote count that would be great, and see who really is at harm for the kill.

There are so many things flying around, I could place my vote on a few people.

I really don't like Jack's [non]play so far this game. Just doesn't sit right. I feel like he's letting everyone else talk, someone says something about him being silent, and then it just gets brushed aside, so he can continue to hide.

My vote is going to be changed either to fwy or Monty or Jack. The whole suspect list thing with fwy just doesn't sit well with me, and Monty is pulling an LA3 by saying he'll get to his argument this morning, which he has yet to do. Granted, I don't know Monty's time zone, so that could change things, but I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, for now.

EDIT: Fixed declared votes.