Sign ups end in 2 hours and 20 minutes.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Zakman86:
Eh, I'll play.

---

Me too. Need 1 more.

I will be @ FNM tonight, and i work tomorrow, so i wont be able to post @ all for ~28 hours. Just a heads up, before people accuse me of 'being silent -> mafia' or whatever.

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

quote:

---

Originally posted by thror:
Need 1 more.

---

We will accept any amount of players until sign ups end. More players, more roles are used.

quote:

---

Originally posted by thror:
Me too. Need 1 more.

I will be @ FNM tonight, and i work tomorrow, so i wont be able to post @ all for ~28 hours. Just a heads up, before people accuse me of 'being silent -> mafia' or whatever.

---

You know I'm going to use it as a ploy, so don't worry. I might as well just vote for you right now!

quote:

---

Originally posted by hilikuS:
You know I'm going to use it as a ploy, so don't worry. I might as well just vote for you right now!

---

hahahaaa

me too....

As I entered the room for the meeting I had called, my thoughts continued on the mysterious death of our security guard, Tranderas. Police report said he had been double tapped in the back of the head, then later stabbed in the chest over a dozen times with a sharpened blade, most likely a hunting knife. It wasn't mysterious in that he had yet to start working for us but because he had been killed in the break room and no one discovered him for 8 hours. The report said there were no solid leads at the moment so I had called a meeting to discuss the situation.

"Good to see you all here." I mentioned while getting comfortable. "Police have no leads at the moment and we are still lacking a security guard. Our immediate concern is-"

Out of the blue, the lights went out. Then the fire alarm went off as smoke filled the room. I scrambled through the door, bumping into a few people and pushing them aside to make out.

Coughing, I look around and do a quick count. 14.

When the fire department arrived, the police were called. Two bodies had been found in the room. MeddlingMage had been shot in the back. BernieB had his throat cut. Both belonged to the secret society of the Wolf.

Players votes due Thrusday at 8 PM. MOTL Time.

{Summary: MeddlingMage killed. BernieB killed. Both Masons.}

quote:

---

Originally posted by LA3:
Not much revealed with both masons gone. I'll analyze more when people post their thoughts.

---

That's an understatement. Two games in a row we've had masons and we've gotten nothing out of them.

Question to Liq - is 16 players considered a full game I assume?

quote:

---

Originally posted by rayragnarok:
wow. so we either have a serial killer or a really bad vigilante, fun... i really wish that the masons would last past round 0 one of these games...
so is there one mason left or two?

---

One mason did last game, remember?

quote:

---

Originally posted by WCFmo:
Question to Liq - is 16 players considered a full game I assume?

---

We are playing with 4 members on Team Mafia if that's what you mean. Forgot to mention that part in the game start.

quote:

---

Originally posted by WCFmo:

One mason did last game, remember?

---

With 4 members in the mafia this should be cinch to nab at least 1...

If there is a Vigilante he has one more NK to make, Im hoping for the best there...

Though a Serial Killer could be bad if he is constantly killing off cits

Going from there, this is probably going to be a very quick game, and nobody has any reasonable life expectancy with 3 kills per round. If you have something to say, SAY it. No guarantees to see another day phase.

Losing 2 of the masons is a big hit (I thought I read there were masons equal to the # of mafia members, but I don't see that listed anywhere. Unsure if we have more or not.), I was actually hoping to see how citizen voting blocks would work out, but I guess that will have to wait.

Initial thoughts-

Nobody jumped on LA3 for talking but saying nothing yet, kind of surprised. I'll go first - no more cheeseburgers without payment. Post thoughts, not blanks.

RR/Wcfmo starting up a little back and forth early this game. RR really likes to push your buttons W.

Fwy - words cannot express my opinion of fwybwed. some guttural noise close to "furrnnnghhhh".

@ everyone - Analysis is best done with at least a day before votes are due. This gives everyone time to read it and act. Remember last game, Jack came out as the cop with a few hours before the lynch and you still lynched him. This is obviously an extreme example, but not everyone can react with 2-4 hours notice.

__________________
"He fights you not because you have wronged him, but because you are there."

fwybwed: 1
LA3: 1
rayragnarok: 3
WCFmo: 1
yakusoku: 1

quote:

---

fwybwed:

With 4 members in the mafia this should be cinch to nab at least 1...

---

Is this a facetious comment? Sarcasm is very difficult to read over the internet sometimes. 4 Mafia with 14 players = less than 30% chance to get a Mafia randomly. That's like playing Craps and betting on a 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 not coming. Combine that with the Mafia working together, and our chances actually go down from there.

We might up our percentage a bit based on round one comments, but the first round is usually a shot in the dark. We might get lucky, but in most games, citizens usually lynch another citizen round one and the Mafia get another free kill.

If you meant that we should easily be able to get one during the course of the game, then I should certainly hope so.

Our odds for a Mafia lynch this round: 1 - (10/14) = 28.6%

Our odds for two rounds (assuming one day citizen lynch + one night Mafia kill): 1 - (10/14 * 8/12) = 52.4%

Our odds for two rounds (assuming one day kill + one night Mafia kill + one other role kill): 1 - (10/14 * 7/11) = 54.5%

Our odds for three rounds (assuming two day kills + two night Mafia kills): 1 - (10/14 * 8/12 * 6/10) = 71.4%

Our odds for three rounds (assuming two day kills + 4 night kills): 1 - (10/14 * 7/11 * 4/8) = 77.3%

All of this still doesn't account for the cop revealing information, the doctor saving someone, the bomb killing someone who does a NK, or a roleblocker stopping a kill, which all increase our chances.

So try not to bandwagon against me

quote:

---

Originally posted by LA3:
I am posting this now that I have limited internet capability and won't be posting til tonight at the earliest after this post.
(using blackberry)

So try not to bandwagon against me

---

So why post until later if you're going to make yet another post saying "I'll do it later."?

EDIT: If we do have a serial killer, he'd want to try and hunt mafia. I'm under the assumption that the serial killer is out for himself, so killing mafia seems in his best interest. If all the citizens go down, the mafia wins, or it's really easy to pick him out of a crowd for the NK. I'm going to have to assume we're dealing with 4 mafia and a serial killer, and say he just made a wild guess.

quote:

---

Originally posted by thror:
Going from there, this is probably going to be a very quick game, and nobody has any reasonable life expectancy with 3 kills per round. If you have something to say, SAY it. No guarantees to see another day phase.

---

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

quote:

---

Originally posted by junichi:
SAs for LA3, he is acting like a player with a role that doesn't want to die early.

---

As he was last game where LA3 was the second mason. Granted a ton of players will have roles with the new rules, it still seems to hold some weight. This might just be how he plays though. Something to note I guess.

quote:

---

Originally posted by thror:
...

1. Nobody jumped on LA3 for talking but saying nothing yet, kind of surprised. I'll go first - no more cheeseburgers without payment. Post thoughts, not blanks.

2. RR/Wcfmo starting up a little back and forth early this game. RR really likes to push your buttons W.

...

3. Jack came out as the cop with a few hours before the lynch and you still lynched him. This is obviously an extreme example, but not everyone can react with 2-4 hours notice.

---

1. I think, based on LA3's postings that he has been more productive than past games, plus like everyone has said there isn't really much to go on in the first round.

2. See below.

3. Jack didn't come out a few hours prior to vote, about 30 minutes or so.

quote:

---

Originally posted by rayragnarok:
yes but one mason is hardly better then a cit. though i guess it was enough to kill me last game :P

---

I thought it was a pretty good deal to have 2 confirmeds last round as only a mafia would like about their role as the mason. As to any back and forth, I can separate game for games...though I'm still not sure why no one believed me that he killed the cop last game. We still won, so that's all that matters.

quote:

---

Originally posted by thror:
Going from there, this is probably going to be a very quick game, and nobody has any reasonable life expectancy with 3 kills per round. If you have something to say, SAY it. No guarantees to see another day phase.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by junichi:

This is very true. I approved.

---

LOL, so what are you exactly saying here.

Here's a random thought - shouldn't we discuss who was the victim of the serial killer/vigilant? I mean, as long as we are trying to throw caution to the wind, who do we think more likely was the victim of the NK and who was the victim of the SK/VI?

It's a toss up with this one considering you have two players.

If Bernie was the NK and it was motivated by a so called "read" - I think it could mean that there was some kind of weird relationship b/w the two (see bernieB and Bernek) or the two could have been mafia together. Considering, Bernek is not playing, Monty, Liq, and BernieB were all mafia a few games back, but I am not suspicious of Monty currently.

If MM was the NK, the only person I remember recently that was fighting with was LA3 in Mafia 12. I don't think LA3 would pull such a manuever and that seems more like a set up than anything (if MM was the NK).

fwybwed: 1
Gawain: 0
hilikuS: 2
JackSpade: 0
junichi: 1
LA3: 2
Montague: 0
OGB: 0
rayragnarok: 3
ryan2754: 0
thror: 0
WCFmo: 2
yakusoku: 2
Zakman86: 0

quote:

---

hilikuS:

I'm going to have to assume we're dealing with 4 mafia and a serial killer, and say he just made a wild guess.

---

That would be my assessment, too. It's possible, but not likely, that there's a Vigilante who thought he could beat the odds and took a shot in the dark. I certainly hope that is not the case, as that action hurts the citizens far more than it helps. Initially, there's only a 4/16 = 25% chance of hitting a Mafia randomly, which is all you get for the first night, since no one gave any information that would influence night actions.

Given that, my slightly better than a coin flip guess would be that MM was probably a Mafia NK and Bernie was a Serial Killer kill. I don't see any real reason why Bernie would be targetted by the Mafia, but I can imagine that some would view MM as talkative, helpful, experienced, or just a good Citizen who should be taken out ASAP. Look at what happened last game:

quote:

---

rayragnarok:

Gawain you were the first NK because you seemed like a pretty good player when I looked back a few games and I felt rushed to make a pick.

---

It seems to be that Mafia, at the least the first round or two tend to go after players viewed as good or experienced (ray thought that Gawain was a good player and then also said he though I was, so I was killed pretty quickly, too). I think that description fits MM more than Bernie. It's possible they went after Bernie for that perception, but it seems less likely than MM.

WCFmo, I don't think it's a personal thing, so I wouldn't investigate who last had interactions with either MM or Bernie. I think it's just a gut feel sort of thing. I remember when I was Mafia leader last, I got input from my fellow Mafia and just went with whom I thought would hurt our chances of winning most and those whom would seem like obvious choices, as not to give anything away from personal motives. It seems like a silly maneuver to go after someone you recently interacted with, unless you really thought it would work as a bluff/double bluff and confuse the Citizens.

As I try to do every round 1, I encourage EVERYONE to post their thoughts NOW.

quote:

---

Originally posted by yakusoku:
Post count (including this one):

fwybwed: 1
Gawain: 0
hilikuS: 2
JackSpade: 0
junichi: 1
LA3: 2
Montague: 0
OGB: 0
rayragnarok: 3
ryan2754: 0
thror: 0
WCFmo: 2
yakusoku: 2
Zakman86: 0

---

__________________
40 Eye of Ugin and 4 foil Eye of Ugin for Black Lotus!?

quote:

---

Originally posted by yakusoku:

...

WCFmo, I don't think it's a personal thing, so I wouldn't investigate who last had interactions with either MM or Bernie. I think it's just a gut feel sort of thing. I remember when I was Mafia leader last, I got input from my fellow Mafia and just went with whom I thought would hurt our chances of winning most and those whom would seem like obvious choices, as not to give anything away from personal motives. It seems like a silly maneuver to go after someone you recently interacted with, unless you really thought it would work as a bluff/double bluff and confuse the Citizens.

...

---

I agree, and I don't particularly put much weight that it was motivated some sort of animus...but if MM was the NK, it seems like an odd play. MM always seems to be lynched (except the game he was a mafia with Bernek and I), why would the mafia NK him? If NK was pure randomness, I'd say Bernie was NK but if there was some sort of other motivation, I'd say it would be MM.